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July 18th, 2017
.
Javier Abugattás
President of the Board of Directors – CEPLAN
www.ceplan.gob.pe
1
Building consensus for
“Visión Perú” to 2030
Voluntary National Review - 2017
Integral knowledge of reality to build scenarios, to formulatepolicies and plans, and to achieve results
OCÉANO PACÍFICO
COLOMBIA
BRASIL
BOLIVIA
2
2030 36.9 millions
Demographic trends: Peru’s population outlook 2100
2070 43.7 millions
Source: United Nations, 2015
Millions
of
people
32.1 millions2017
2100 41.6 millions
41.9 millions2050
3
Peru: trends and projections of Peru’s population, 1950 - 2100 (millions
of people)
Average variant
80% probabilistic prediction interval
90% prediction interval
Estimate
High and low fertility variant
60 sample trajectories
4
2.45.2 5.8 6.0
3.1
8.7
13.3
16.2
0.2
0.7
1.3
2.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Millions
of
people
Jóvenes (15 - 29 años) Adultos (30 - 64 años) Adultos mayores (65 a más años)
Peru: trends and projections of the Peruvian labor force by age
groups, 1980 – 2050 (millions of people)
Source: CEPAL – CELADE
5,7
14,6
20,4
24,4
There is a process of aging of the labor force.
Peru’s labor force trends outlook 2050
Source: International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2014)
Change in the mean global surface temperature
Environmental trends: World Climate Change outlook 2100
Planning the same way is impossible due to the current global context with
high vulnerability and variability that the world is experiencing.
5
Observed
High-emmissions
scenario
Overlapping
Low-emmission
mitigation
scenario
Institutionalframework
Implementation
General GovernmentPolicy (4 axis)
Scenarios:Trends ----->
Contextual ----->
Population Climate Change Socioeconomic
Axis 1. Opportunities, social
investment, wáter,
infrastructure
Axis 2.Security. Anti-corruption
fight
Axis 3. Employment,
formalization y reactivation of
the economy
Axis 4. Bringing the State closer
to the Citizenship
Functions of the State (25)
Sectors (28)
Ministries (19)
Regional Governments
(26)6
2030 Agenda Welfare approachInvestment framework
Acuerdo Nacional
7
Peru´s Sustainable Development by 2030: conceptual model
Local Governments(196 provinces,1874
districts)
New raw materialssupercycle
Ocurrence of natural disasters
Rising expectations of themiddle class
Increase in technology and mechanization
Framework policy for investment
General framework to update policies and plans
Supranationalframework
Nationalframework
Global trends
Population Climate Change Socioeconomic
2030 Agenda:17 SDG, 169 targets
OECD: Country ProgrammeWelfare (15 dimensions)Investment framework (12 guidelines)
State
Co
ntext
8
8
Peru’s proposal of an Image of the Future to 2030
Peru today
25 Functions,
19 Ministries,
26 Regional Governments, 196 provinces and 1874 districts
Foresight analysis
• To fully understandreality, as well asexplore possiblefutures, through theidentification oftrends, diagnosis ofvariables and theconstruction andanalysis of scenarios,in order to anticipateand articulate effortstowards theachievement of adesired future
Towards a concerted vision of the futureProposal of an Image of the Future 2030
Institutional framework
• 2030 Agenda
• Paris Agreement
• Sendai Framework forDisaster RiskReduction 2015-2030
• Addis Ababa Action Agenda
International National• State
policies
• Nationalpolicies
• Sectorial policies
• Territorial policies
Proposal of an Image of the Future in different languages
Español Shipibo-Konibo Awajun Wampis English
1. Al 2030 todas las personas pueden realizar su potencial.
Rabe waranka kimisha chonka baritianra jatibi joni noa koshikana iti jake
Mijan 2030 atata nuwig ashi aentsamaigkau amainai dita Kajin
2030tinka, shuar aiña nusha wariñaturumaiñak aiña nunaka ashiumikarai.
By 2030, everyone is able to fulfill their potential.
2. Se han desarrollado esfuerzos concertados para la conservación y gestión sostenible de los recursos naturales, tomando medidas urgentes para hacer frente al cambio climático
Icha teera akanke jakon axon non niimera jaabo koirankanti kopi itanjakonaxribi teeti kopi, jaskaxon ishtonbechitenti shinanxon jawetianki onsajawekibo non jeman winoti atipana ikiixon
Ikam pachisa, namak pachisa, kuntin pachisa, nugka initkentakamain tepaju aina nunupachisa, juju takakuish amumatsuktakatai ati tusa ijunja chichamantujdaikaji, nuniaku dase tsuwapamunum tsawan besekwega nunu awantatna dushauminkae
Tsawan yapajinki wea nuumamikma jetektasar shir iruntrar juikuamak, entsa, kucha weanta nuukuitamnati nuyasha chicham jintiararumirkar jutiksar takasmau ati tusar chicham uminkayi.
Concerted efforts have been made for the conservation and sustainable management of natural resources, taking urgent steps to address climate change.
3. Todas las personas gozan de una vida prospera y plena, con empleo digno y en armonía con la naturaleza, conservando reservas de recursos para el bienestar futuro
Jatibi jonibora senen itan jakonshamanjakanke, jakon teeyabo itanraroshaman non niibobetan jax, jakonakin non niimeran jayatabo koirantanajawetianbi noa oribo jawenbimaxkatima kopi
Ashi aents tajimat waigku asajdakunkut shiij batsatui, takatjintinwaigkaje, nugkash tsuwapatsuktakanui, atak atsumaku takamainadusha anettsa
Shuar aiña nuka, kuamak warin a nusha arumaisha imanisan akai shirpujamu ati tusa, nui enentaimaskuamkancha arantuk pujus takarmakshir tarimat pujuiñawai
All people enjoy a prosperous and fulfilled life, with dignified employment and in harmony with nature, considering resources reserves for the future´s well-being
4. La sociedad peruana es pacifica, justa e inclusiva, libre del temor y de la violencia; sin corrupción ni discriminación y con igualdad de oportunidades
Peruano joniboriki jakomamistishinaomabo, senen jonibo, jato biaijonibo, raketi shinaoma itanjakomamisti shinaoma jonibo, jansoxonjaweki akai joniboma, jaskaribi jato omisyamai, jaskaaxon jato senenbiresakinai itan ikinai jonibo
Perunumia aentsuk tutitjachuainawai, dekas anentaiyaipachiijatin ainawai, puyatamushatsujuinawai, waitkamushatsujuinawai, agkan batsatui; kasaabaush atsawai, wainkauchdiijatbaush atsawai, betek niinisawaiti ujatdaiyamu awai
Perunmaya shuarka nankami maaniiruneatsui, ashi metek chichamnashaiwarin aiñawai nuyasha ashi metektuak matsatenawai, ishamsarpujamusha tura maaniamushaatsamunam matsatenawai; muijkartuscha iirkatenatsui tura ashimetek warí penker amaunmashaénketkaiñawai
Peru´s society is just, inclusive and peaceful; free from fear and violence; without corruption nor discrimination and with equality of opportunities.
5. Se han fortalecido las alianzas para alcanzar el desarrollo sostenible, en correspondencia con el respeto universal de los derechos humanos, sin dejar a nadie atrás.
Westiora shinanbicho akaxrakoshikanke jaskaxon non jayatajawekinin teetanan bebonti kopi, jaskaatanan jatibi jonibo tsoabiomisyamakin itan jato pekaoriayamakin senenbires jato ikinti kopi
Tajimat pujustin amaigkatna nunupachisa achinija kakajamawajnase, aentsu ayamke juni atitusa ashi nugkanum chichamumikbauwa nunu aintuja, bakichikaentsua dukesh ukunum ukuamukatsawai
Emka weakrisha nunka emestsuktakat emami tusar enentai achikar, chikichjai takat tsanintai aiñanujaisha kakaram enentai enkerji, tumar senchimarji, juka jutiknayichikishkisha ukunam ujuatsuk ju nunka jui shuara ayamkarishaarankar takamu ati timauwa nuumetek umiakur
In accordance with the universal respect for human rights, alliances have been strengthened in order to achieve sustainable development, without leaving anyone behind.
10
Dialogue process, consultation and consensus-building
Inform
Collectopinions
Generateappropriation
Dialogue and consultation on Peru´s proposed image of the future
Consensus-building process of Peru’s Vision of the future
Acuerdo NacionalMCLCPCivil Society OrganisationsMinoritiesGuildsAcademyPolitical leadersExpertsNational Planning SystemCitizensOthers not represented
Presentation of theimage of the future
Image of the futureProposed image
Concerted vision of future to 2030
11
11
Strategic planning cycle for continuous improvement
It seeks to understand how people live in their territories, their livelihoods
and their level of well-being
The people´s aspirations are identified, an analysis of the future is
carried out and the image of the desired territory is defined.
Public policies are defined to achieve the image of the desired territory, through prioritised and guidelines.
It collects and analyzes information on the indicators defined in the plans to verify the progress towards achieving
the image of the desired territory.
1
2
3
4
12
Organisation for monitoring progress
Illustrative indicators of Peru´s proposed imageof the future by year 2030
Economic trends: Incidence in poverty
Between 2006 and 2016, monetary poverty declined by 28.4 percentage points; which means that more than seven millionPeruvians left the situation of poverty. By 2030, approximately three and a half million people will have left the povertysituation.
Source: INEI (2017) and CEPLAN (projections)
49.1
42.4
37.3
33.530.8
27.825.8
23.922.7 21.8 20.7 19.6 18.6 17.5 16.6 15.7 14.9 13.9 13.0 12.1 11.1 10.4 9.7 9.0 8.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Peru: Incidence of total poverty (2006) and projectios for the year 2030(% population)
14
Notes: 1 / Obtained from the "Sistema de Registro del Certificado de Nacido Vivo en Línea" of the Ministry of Health (MINSA). It is a web system that allows health facilities to register newborns in a timelymanner, generate a Certificate of Live Birth (CNV). 2 / is the birth register of the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status Office. The relationship between the birth registration (MINSA) and birthregister (RENIEC) represents the coverage of registrations in the Registration System of Live Birth Certificates. In this sense, the projection to 2030 was adjusted to a logistic curve, where the upper boundwas 100%.
Peru: registration of newborns1/ in relation to the
registration of births2/, 2012 - 2030, (%)
Trends in the registration of newborns in Peru
Source: MINSA – Live System of Registration of the Newborn Certificate of the Ministry of Health (CNV). RENIEC-Statistics of civil registries.Elaboration: CEPLAN - National Directorate of Foresight and Strategic Studies (DNPE).
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
15
Note: Projections of the percentage of newborns with low weight were adjusted to a trend curve based on the indicator´s historical values. It is considered underweight if the newborn weighs less than2.5 kg.
Newborns with low weight in relation to newborns, 2012 – 2030, (%)
Trends on newborns with low weight in Peru
Source: Live System of Registration of Certificate of Live Birth of the Ministry of Health (MINSA)Elaboration: DNPE - National Center of Strategic Planning
6.896.73
6.36
6.40
6.23
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
16
Integral knowledge of reality
Peru’s Vision to 2030
Update of policies and plans
Implementation
Wellfare
Peru’s challenge to 2030
19
Take the bold and transformative measures that are needed to redirect the
country along the road to sustainability
Commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development