Building a Sustainableand Desirable Future:Shared Goals, Integrated Models, Well-being Metrics, and Societal Therapy  

Mini-Symposium: SYSTEMS AND SUSTAINABILITY IN TIME AND SPACEInauguration Event February 18, 2016

Robert Costanza • Professor and Chair in Public Policy Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University Canberra ACT 2601, Australia • Editor in Chief, Solutions (www.thesolutionsjournal.org)

Human influence on the earth system is now so large, that a new geologic epoch (the Anthropocene) has begun. We now live in a “Full World”

Business as usual is not an option

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES: THERE ARE FUNDAMENTAL ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS Rockström, J., et al. 2009.

A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461:472-475 Steffen, W., J. Rockström, and R. Costanza. 2011. How Defining Planetary Boundaries Can Transform Our Approach to Growth. Solutions. Vol 2, No. 3, May 2011

Can humanity make the transition to a sustainable and

desirable future without a major collapse?

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paleo-Indian migration to Americas

Maize bred first Sumerian cities

first Peruvian cities

Vikings visit NA

"Black death"Columbus

Collapse of Maya

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Hurricane Katrina destroys New Orleans

35,000 die in European heat wave

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Peak of British Empire

Peak of Mongol Empire

Peak of Islamic Caliphate

Peak of Roman Empire

Domestication of Dogs

Sedentism

migration of modern humans out of Africa

IntegratedHistory and future OfPeople onEarthFrom: Costanza, R. L. Graumlich, W. Steffen, C. Crumley, J. Dearing, K. Hibbard, R. Leemans, C. Redman, and D. Schimel. 2007. Sustainability or Collapse: What Can We Learn from Integrating the History of Humans and the Rest of Nature? Ambio 36:522-527 Pl

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Vision Tools & Analysis

Systems thinking, Integrated models

and metrics

Implementation Including societal therapy

Building a sustainable and desirable

future

How the world is How we would like it to be

“If you don’t know where you’re going, you end up somewhere else.”

~ Yogi Berra

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) TRANSFORMING OUR WORLD:

THE 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Costanza, R., J. McGlade, H. Lovins, and I. Kubiszewski. 2014. An Overarching Goal for the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Solutions 5(4):13-16. http://thesolutionsjournal.com/node/237220

Integrated Questions/Goals:• Ecologically Sustainable Scale

• Socially Fair Distribution

• Economically Efficient Allocation

6. Water and sanitation for all!

13. Urgent action on

climate change!

14. Conserve marine

ecosystems!

15. Conserve terrestrial

ecosystems!

1. End poverty for all!

2. End hunger for all!

3. Ensure healthy lives for

all!

7. Ensure access to

sustainable energy!

8. Promote inclusive economic prosperity!

9. Build resilient

infrastructure!

11. Build resilient and sustainable

cities!

10. Reduce inequality within

and among countries!

16. Promote justice and

accountable institutions!

4. Ensure equitable quality education for all!

5. Achieve gender equality!

12. Ensure sustainable

consumption patterns!

Sustainable Scale:

Staying within planetary

boundaries!

Fair Distribution:

Protecting capabilities

for flourishing!

Efficient Allocation: Building a

living economy!

Overarching Goal: A prosperous, high quality of life

that is equitably shared and sustainable

Ecological Economics Framework!

UN SDG’s!

Net Economic Contribution

(GPI 2.0) !

Social Capital/

Community!(Surveys)!

Natural Capital/

Ecosystem Services!

17. Strengthen

global partnerships!

167 Targets 300+ Indicators

The relationship of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to the framework of ecological economics and the overarching goal of a sustainable, equitable and prosperous system.

From: Costanza, R., R. de Groot, P. Sutton, S. van der Ploeg, S. Anderson, I. Kubiszewski, S. Farber, and R. K. Turner. 2014. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change 26:152-158. !

Robert Costanza, Gar Alperovitz, Herman Daly, Joshua Farley, Carol Franco, Tim Jackson, Ida Kubiszewski, Juliet Schor, and Peter Victor

http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view&nr=627&type=400&menu=35

Genuine Progress Indicator (or ISEW) by Component!

Additions

Subtractions

Personal Consumption Expenditure Income Distribution Personal Consumption Adjusted for Income Inequality Services of Household Capital Services Highways and Street Value of Household Labor Value of Volunteer Work Cost of Consumer Durables Loss of Leisure Time Cost of Commuting Cost of Automobile Accidents Cost of Crime Cost of Family Breakdown Cost of Underemployment Cost of Household Pollution Abatement Cost of Water Pollution Cost of Air Pollution Cost of Noise Pollution Loss of Wetlands Lost of Farmland Depletion of Nonrenewable Resources Long-Term Environmental Damage Cost of Ozone Depletion Loss of Forest Cover Net Capital Investment Net Foreign Lending and Borrowing

Built Capital!Human Capital!

Social Capital!Natural Capital!

!

From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68 !

Economic growth Un-Economic growth

When GDP/capita is adjusted for income distribution and the costs of environmental and social problems using the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) there has been no real growth in societal well-being since 1980.

Achieving Sustainable Societies: Lessons from Modelling the Ancient Maya  by Scott Heckbert, Robert Costanza, and Lael Parrott, Solutions, 5(5), 2014

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Figure 6: Real income of all simulated settlements over time by contributions from agriculture, ecosystem services, and trade value. Ecosystem services is eventually superceded by agriculture, and both by trade around time step 350.

Entertainment(3 billion hours per week spent playing computer games)

Education(learning while playing)

Research(game theory, experimental

economics, resource games, etc.

Uses of Games

IntegratedGames

From: Costanza, R. et al. 2014. Simulation games that integrate research, entertainment, and learning around ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services 10:195-201

Earth 2100 is a television program that was presented by the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) network on June 2, 2009 and was aired on the History channel in January 2010 and was shown through 2010. Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what "a worst-case" future might look like if humans do not take action on current or impending problems that could threaten civilization. The problems addressed in the program include current climate change, overpopulation, and misuse of energy resources.

Motivational Interviewing (MI) is one of the most effective therapies for treatment of substance addictions

Based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. MI suggests that there are four basic principles that underlie successful therapies.

In a societal context, these basic MI principles can be summarized as:

1.  Engaging: building relationships with diverse stakeholders to enable change talk

2.  Focusing: developing shared goals among those stakeholders

3.  Evoking: helping stakeholders identify motivations for positive change

4.  Planning: helping stakeholders move from goals to actual change

Scenario planning (SP) extended to include the entire community using public opinion surveys of the scenarios (CSP) is an analog at the societal scale of Motivational Interviewing (MI) at the individual scale. Can CSP therapy help to break our societal addiction to “growth at all costs”?

TechnologicalOptimism

Resources are unlimitedTechnical Progress candeal with any challenge

Compitition promotesprogress; markets are the

guiding principle

Optimists Are Right(Resources are unlimited)

Skeptics Are Right(Resources are limited)

Real State of the World

Star TrekFusion energy becomespractical, solving manyeconomic and environmentalproblems.Humans journey to the innersolar system, where populationcontinues to expand(mean rank 2.3)

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from: Costanza, R. 2000. Visions of alternative (unpredictable) futures and their use in policy analysis. Conservation Ecology 4(1):5. [online]

URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol4/iss1/art5

TechnologicalSkepticsm

Resources are limitedProgress depends less ontechnology and more on

social and communitydevelopment

Cooperation promotesprogress; markets are the

servants of larger goals

Big GovernmentGovernments sanctioncompanies that fail to pursuethe public interest.Fusion energy is slow todevelop due to strict safteystandards.Family-planning programsstabilize population growth.Incomes become more equal.(mean rank 0.8)

Mad MaxOil production declines and noaffordable alternative emerges.Financial markets collapse andgovernments weaken, too broketo maintain order and controlover desperate, impoverishedpopulations.The world is run bytransnational corporations.(mean rank -7.7) EcoTopiaTax reforms favor ecologicallybeneficent industries and punishpolluters and resource depleters.Habitation patterns reduce needfor transportation and energy.A shift away from consumerismincreases quality of life andreduces waste.(mean rank 5.1)

Four Visions of the Future

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Workinprogress:fourfuturescenariosforNewZealand.DevelopedbytheLandcareResearchScenariosWorkingGroup;documentedwithaddiConalcommentarybyRhysTaylor,BobFrame,KateDelaneyandMelissaBrignall-Theyer.2nded.–Lincoln,N.Z.:PublishedbyManaakiWhenuaPress,2007.

IndependentAotearoa

IndependentAotearoa

IndependentAotearoa

FruitsforaFew FruitsforaFewFruitsforaFewLivingonNo.8Wire

LivingonNo.8Wire

LivingonNo.8Wire

NewFronCers NewFronCers NewFronCers

Market Forces The Market Forces scenario is a story of a market-driven world in the 21st Century in which demographic, economic, environmental and technological trends unfold without major surprise relative unfolding trends. Continuity, globalization and convergence are key characteristics of world development – institutions gradually adjust without major ruptures, international economic integration proceeds apace and the socioeconomic patterns of poor regions converge slowly toward the development model of the rich regions. Despite economic growth, extreme income disparity between rich and poor countries, and between the rich and poor within countries, remains a critical social trend. Environmental transformation and degradation are a progressively more significant factor in global affairs.

Policy Reform The Policy Reform scenario envisions the emergence of strong political will for taking harmonized and rapid action to ensure a successful transition to a more equitable and environmentally resilient future. Rather than a projection into the future, Policy Reform scenario is a normative scenario constructed as a backcast from the future. It is designed to achieve a set of future sustainability goals. The analytical task is to identify plausible development pathways for reaching that end-point. Thus, the Policy Reform scenario explores the requirements for simultaneously achieving social and environmental sustainability goals under high economic growth conditions similar to those of Market Forces. Fortress World The Fortress World scenario is a variant of a broader class of Barbarization scenarios, in the hierarchy of the Global Scenario Group (Gallopín et al., 1997). Barbarization scenarios envision the grim possibility that the social, economic and moral underpinnings of civilization deteriorate, as emerging problems overwhelm the coping capacity of both markets and policy reforms. The Fortress World variant of the Barbarization story features an authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown. Ensconced in protected enclaves, elites safeguard their privilege by controlling an impoverished majority and managing critical natural resources, while outside the fortress there is repression, environmental destruction and misery Great Transition The Great Transition scenario explores visionary solutions to the sustainability challenge, including new socioeconomic arrangements and fundamental changes in values. This scenario depicts a transition to a society that preserves natural systems, provides high levels of welfare through material sufficiency and equitable distribution, and enjoys a strong sense of local solidarity.

GTI Scenarios (http://www.greattransition.org/explore/scenarios)

Limits Binding:!Economic (GDP) Growth no longer possible!

Limits Overcome:!Economic (GDP) Growth Continues!

Individuals! Community!

Free Enterprise!The market knows best!Inequity not addressed!

Coordinated Action!We need planning and government!Equity maintained!

Strong Individualism!Everyone for themselves!

Limited Governance!

Community Well-Being!We’re all in this together!Governance at many levels!Stewardship and sharing!

Scenarios for Australia in 2050: A synthesis and proposed survey Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski, Steve Cork, Paul Atkins, Alexandra Bean, Alexis Diamond, Nicola Grigg, Emily Korb, Jasmin Logg-Scarvell, Rajkumari Navis, and Kimberley Patrick, 2015. Journal of Future Studies 19:49-76

http://www.anuscenarioplanning.com/

Policy focus on GDP growth

Policy focus on well-being

(a) (b)

Comparison between (a) the individual choices for scenarios and (b) perceptions on most Australians preferences on future scenarios. n=67

EMDV 8126 Sustainable Solutions WorkshopSurveying Alternative Future Scenarios for Australia

This course will engage students, faculty, and stakeholders in a unique application of scenario planning in Australia. We will use previously developed scenarios to create a public opinion survey of Australians about the futures they prefer. We will design and implement the survey, interpret the results, and publish the findings.

Semester 1, 2016, Tuesdays 4-7 PMCourse Conveners: Prof Robert Costanza and Dr. Ida Kubiszewski

The course will use an interactive, solutions-focused format to: •  Review the literature on scenario planning in Australia and the world•  Review a set of plausible future scenarios that have been developed for Australia•  Describe those futures in a number of ways, that communicate with a broad audience, including narratives,

graphics, and video•  Design, implement, and interpret public opinion surveys about the scenarios•  Prepare publishable articles about the results

Can humanity make the transition to a sustainable and

desirable future without a major collapse?

Hopefully yes, but doing so may require: •  Acknowledging our entrapment in the current regime and the need

for societal therapy to break out.

•  Engaging the public in iterative discussion and ranking of alternative future scenarios to build consensus on the future we want – an analog of the “motivational interviewing” technique that works well at the individual scale.

Thank You