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Buenos Aires, September 30th, 2014
Service Planning
Improvements, a recent experience in Mexibus
III
Content
Field data results Frequency and occupancy Board and alightments Demand / Capacity relationships
Financial Aspects Finances of the Infrastructure Concessionaire Finances of the fleet operator Current system situation Currentsystem demand profile
Recommendations
Frequency and Occupancy
Demand serviced by Mexibus and other routes during a 16 hours period
Variation of demand during the day
60%
86%
100%
88%
68%
58%52% 53% 56% 55% 55%
59%63%
75%82%
89%
63%
39%
56% 57%
50%
40%35%
32% 32% 33% 35% 34% 36% 38%43% 45% 47%
35%
21%
29%
43%39%
27%23%
19% 21% 23%20% 21% 22% 25%
32%37%
42%
28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22
Variación de la Demanda en la cuenca del Mexibús III
Pas-Total Pas-Remanente Pas-Mexibús
The expansion factor is 7.3During am peak hour (7-8), 14% of daily demand is servicedDuring pm peak (20-21), 2% of the daily demand is servicedDuring 6 and 9, 38% of the demand is servicedDuring 18 and 21,, more than 34% of the demand is servicedIn 6 hours (from a total of 17 hours of operations), almost a 73% of the demand is serviced
Frequency and Occupancy
Demand serviced by Mexibus and others
The current fleet in operation has 52 buses, 4 reserve and a maximum frequency of 35 vph in 4 services
No. Ubicación Sentido Remanente Mexibús Total % Mexibús Remanente Mexibús Total % Mexibús1 Av. Del Peñon y Av. Patos N-S 8,674 13,945 22,619 62% 693 2,456 3,149 78%
Av. Del Peñon y Av. Patos S-N 6,894 14,969 21,863 68% 578 2,483 3,061 81%2 Av. Del Peñon y Calle Quetzalli N-S 25,265 18,877 44,142 43% 3,180 3,802 6,982 54%
Av. Del Peñon y Calle Quetzalli S-N 26,538 28,228 54,766 52% 3,541 4,074 7,615 53%3 Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Del Peñon O-P 15,675 15,675 -
Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Del Peñon P-O 15,730 15,730 - 4 Av. De las Torres y Bordo de Xochiaca N-S 16,841 16,841 -
Av. De las Torres y Bordo de Xochiaca S-N 20,948 20,948 - 5 Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Vicente Villada O-P 57,182 22,948 80,130 29% 13,637 3,938 17,575 22%
Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Vicente Villada P-O 53,817 20,480 74,297 28% 8,265 3,395 11,660 29%6 4a Av. (Rayito de Sol) - Av. Vicente Villada O-P 11,127 11,127 -
4a Av. (Rayito de Sol) - Av. Vicente Villada P-O 10,216 10,216 - 7 Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Cuauhtémoc O-P 81,185 81,185 -
Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Cuauhtémoc P-O 82,422 82,422 - 8 Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Vicente Villada O-P 39,322 20,409 59,731 34% 5,101 4,205 9,306 45%
Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Vicente Villada P-O 39,019 20,741 59,760 35% 4,110 4,310 8,420 51%9 Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Cuauhtémoc O-P 26,694 29,916 56,610 53% 4,359 4,790 9,149 52%
Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Cuauhtémoc P-O 27,596 26,451 54,047 49% 3,877 4,267 8,144 52%10 Av. Pantitlán - Adolfo López Mateos O-P 35,284 35,284 -
Av. Pantitlán - Adolfo López Mateos P-O 29,476 29,476 -
Periodo 16 horas Periodo Hora de Máxima demanda
Tramo crítico
Total frequencies along the day for the 4 services
52 buses in operation4 reserve
56 total fleet
Ascensos y descensos
Average profile for local service bus
Service at capacity during peak.Renovation index in the west bound: 1.34Average trip distance: 13.4 km.Maximum load: 136 passengersDirection: 84% westbound
Express service 1
Service saturated during peak.Renovation index westbound: 1.44Average trip distance: 12.5 km.Maximum load per bus: 158 pasajerosDirection: 89% westbound
Express service 2
Service at capacityRenovation index westbound: 1.11Average trip distance: 16.2 km.Maximum load: 143 passengersDirection: 85% westbound
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Chim
alhu
acán
Los P
atos
La P
resa
Las T
orre
s
Gene
ral V
icent
e Vi
llada
Adol
fo L
ópez
Mat
eos
Vice
nte
Riva
Pal
acio
Pant
itlán
Pant
itlán
Vice
nte
Riva
Pal
acio
Adol
fo L
ópez
Mat
eos
Gene
ral V
icent
e Vi
llada
Las T
orre
s
La P
resa
Los P
atos
Chim
alhu
acán
Pasa
jero
s
No. de Parada
Auditoría Integral, del Sistema de Transporte Masivo Mexibus III Chimalhuacán-Nezahualcóyotl-PantitlánPolígono de Carga Ruta: (Periodo pico de la mañana)
Ascensos Descensos A bordo
Sentido 1
Sentido 2
Ruta Express 2 - Mexibús
Mexibus Remanentes
Current operation
Operation program for each service
ServicioVueltas en día laboral
Ordinario 217Expreso 1 85Expreso 2 113Rosa 16
Current operation and capacity
At 90% load, the system offers 5,040 places at peak frequency
Demand / capacity, current
Current Capacity of Mexibús III
SITUACIÓN ACTUAL
No. NombreFrecuencia
actual (veh/hr)Demanda atendida
(90%-144pas)Demanda atendida
(95%-152pas)Demanda atendida
(100%-160pas)
Demanda observada
(HMD)
Tiempo ciclo
Mexibus
(min)
Vel.
Comercial
(Km/hr)
Flota Operativa
(veh)
1 Ruta Mexibús - Ordinaria 13 1,872 1,976 2,080 1,772 104 20.7 23
2 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 2 10 1,440 1,520 1,600 1,430 84 25.6 14
3 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 1 8 1,152 1,216 1,280 1,270 84 24.1 11
4 Ruta Mexibús - Mujeres 4 576 608 640 318 104 20.7 4
35 5040 5320 5600 4790 376 91 52
95% 90% 86%
Mejoras en tiempo de ciclo (10%), incremento de velocidad, reducción de flota en operación
No. NombreFrecuencia
actual (veh/hr)Demanda atendida
(90%-144pas)Demanda atendida
(95%-152pas)Demanda atendida
(100%-160pas)
Demanda observada
(HMD)
Tiempo ciclo
Mexibus
(min)
Vel.
Comercial
(Km/hr)
Flota Operativa
(veh)
1 Ruta Mexibús - Ordinaria 13 1,872 1,976 2,080 1,772 93.6 23.0 21
2 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 2 10 1,440 1,520 1,600 1,430 75.6 28.5 13
3 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 1 8 1,152 1,216 1,280 1,270 75.6 26.8 10
4 Ruta Mexibús - Mujeres 4 576 608 640 318 104 20.7 4
35 48
Capacidad del Sistema Actual
Approaching Pantitlán Terminal
Financial aspects
Original financial model of the infrastructure concessionaire:• Total investment: 540 millions of pesos, 82% during the first
year, investments for 5 years• Projected Demand: 205 thousand passengers per day• Fare: 7 pesos• Concession period: 25 years• Revenue as a % of fare collection: 23.7%• Other revenue (advertising, etc.): 1,725,000 pesos 7 year,
during the first year• Operating costs: 58 + million pesos yearly• Demand growth rate:1% anualNet present value: 627.9 millions pesos
Sensibility analysis of concessionaire original financial model:• Demand: between 70 and 140 thousand per day• Fare: 6 pesos
-30,000,000
-20,000,000
-10,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Peso
s al a
ño
Ingresos - Egresos
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
-250,000,000.000
-200,000,000.000
-150,000,000.000
-100,000,000.000
-50,000,000.000
0.000
50,000,000.000
100,000,000.000
150,000,000.000
7000
0
7500
0
8000
0
8500
0
9000
0
9500
0
1000
00
1050
00
1100
00
1150
00
1170
00
1200
00
1250
00
1300
00
1350
00
1400
00
Valor presente neto
Financial aspects prior to implementation
Current financial situation
Revenue and expenses during a typical day:• Demand: 70 thousand passengers• Fare: 6 pesos• Current operation
ServicioVueltas en día laboral
DistanciaKm.
DiariosCosto por
Km.
Egreso Total Pago
de flota
Ingreso total por
tarifa
Ingreso - Egreso
Ordinario 217 35.9 7790.3 29 225918.7Expreso 1 85 35.9 3051.5 29 88493.5Expreso 2 113 33.8 3819.4 29 110762.6
Rosa 16 35.9 574.4 29 16657.6Totales 431 15235.6 441832.4 420000 -21832.4
420000 -21832.4
The service plan must change, no money is left to pay other concessionaires.
Financial aspects prior to implementation
Financial model of the fleet operator:4 Demand Scenarios
Financial model of the fleet operator:• A table for each alternative• One local service and 3 express services• Assumption: Critical volume approximately the sum of the critical volume of
each service
Financial aspects prior to implementation
Analysis of demand assumptions in the original business plan of the fleet operator:• Characteristics of current demanden base demanda actual:• 14% of demand takes place in the peak hour• Renovation index in the westbound direction between 1.11 and 1.44• Average trip length westbound: between 12.5 and 16.2 km.• Direction: between 84 and 89% westbound, average 86%
Opción Demanda
diariaDemanda hora pico
Demanda hora pico sentido
Pantitlán
Demanda tramo crítico
Indice de rotación sentido
Pantitlán
Distancia promedio sentido
Pantitlán1 90,000 12,600 10,836 3,345 3.2 5.62 142,000 19,880 17,097 5,306 3.2 5.63 165,000 23,100 19,866 7,690 2.6 7.04 206,000 28,840 24,802 9,612 2.6 7.0
There is a large difference between demand assumptions of the business plan and current demand
Errors in inancial aspects prior to implementation
Recommendations
Functional design and operation:• A new service plan:
• Trunk services long and short, local, semi express - limited and express services
• Direct services
• Delay solutions at Pantitlán terminal• Negotiations with other operators
New service plan
Local, limited and express services
67
Direct services
Direct services with buses with doors on both sides:• Auxiliar Peñon – Bordo• Auxiliar Chimalhuacán
31
Delay at terminal
Alternative 1:
Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III
Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán de Mexibús III
Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III
Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco
Alternative 2:
• Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III• Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán
de Mexibús III • Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III
Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco
Delay at terminal
Route restructuring and negotiations
Feeder system design and negotiations