BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams

BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streamsBeatriz Martnez Lpez*, Jos Manuel Snchez-Vizcano

*[email protected]

Animal Health DepartmentVeterinary SchoolUniversity Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Spainwww.sanidadanimal.info

SECOND ANNUAL MEETINGGiulianova, Teramo, 9-11 December 2008

0.5 microgramSource: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE0.1 to 10 microgramBarnum et al. 20040.73 to 6.1 microgramPerez et al. 2006

Introduction of BTV (AHS) by windAdapted from: EL PAS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008Pathway diagram

Adapted from: EL PAS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008Pathway diagramIntroduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

Prediction of Culicoides introduction into Europe by wind using the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM)??????ObjectivesWind + Particle vehiculation + Deposition

DREAM: Dust REgional Atmospheric Model Source: http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/

There is a significant association between the dust introduction into Europe and the Culicoides introduction by wind.

Culicoides entrance

Dust introduction

Hypothesis

1. Data collection:

Introduction of dust into Europe*

Surface concentration (g/m3/day)

2. Data analysis:

Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe*

Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind Outbreaks in Europe*?Materials and Methods*Only Spain has been analysed in detail (future work would include other European Countries)

1. Data collection

Cell: 0.5 x 0.5 degrees1. Data collection

*amount of dust (g = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (

Surface concentration (g/m3/day)*

Dry dust deposition (g/m2/day)

Wet dust deposition (g/m2/day)

Optical depth

Dust load (g/m2)

(2000-2006)(2000-2006)544,215 records*amount of dust (g = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (

Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe*:When and where:Time series analysisArcGIS

Is there any correlation between outbreak ocurrence in North Africa, dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence in Europe?2. Data analysis

Preliminary Results

2006200020012002200320042005Surface concentration (g/m3)

Surface concentration (g/m3) AndalucaBalearic Islands

April - July

BTV introduction in Balearic IslandsDust in BalearesOutbreaks* in BalearesOutbreaks in TunisiaOutbreaks in ArgeliaOutbreaks in MorroccoBTV-2BTV-2*Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered104 outbreaks7628Number of outbreaks

BTV introduction in Balearic IslandsDust in BalearesOutbreaks* in BalearesOutbreaks in TunisiaOutbreaks in ArgeliaOutbreaks in Morrocco*Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered4Number of outbreaksUndereporting?Winds from Sardinia?4 outbreaksBTV-4

Winds from Sardinia?

Dust in AndalucaOutbreaks* in AndalucaOutbreaks in TunisiaOutbreaks in ArgeliaOutbreaks in MorroccoBTV-4BTV-4BTV introduction in Andaluca*Only primary outbreaks in Andaluca are considered230230 outbreaks

Dust in AndalucaOutbreaks* in AndalucaOutbreaks in TunisiaOutbreaks in ArgeliaOutbreaks in MorroccoBTV-4BTV introduction in Andaluca*Only primary outbreaks in Andaluca are consideredUndereporting?Overwintering?

Culicoides introduction is most likely to occur in the south-east part of Spain and Canary Islands (sporadically in Balearic Islands)

Highest Culicoides introduction may occur between April and July

Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind High risk for introduction of BTV (AHS) infected Culicoides

Outbreaks in Argelia/Tunisia Risk for Balearic IslandsOutbreaks in Morocco Risk for Andaluca(Only when high number of outbreaks in N. Africa occur???)Conclusions

Future work (2009)Complete analysis of data for all Europe and for years 2007 and 2008Study the correlation between dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence (include variables such as T, relative humidity, etc.)Include winds from other countries (not Africa) coming into EuropeAnalysis of the spatial origin of the wind and probability of Culicoides survival during the wind vehiculationFuture modeling specifically for Culicoides introduction: DREAM adaptation for Culicoides CREAM??

Thanks for your attention !

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BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams