BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López , José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno [email protected] Animal Health Department

BTV and AHS risk associated with wind

streamsBeatriz Martínez López*,

José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno

*[email protected]

Animal Health Department

Veterinary School

University Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Spain

www.sanidadanimal.info

SECOND ANNUAL MEETINGGiulianova, Teramo, 9-11 December 2008

0.5 microgram

Source: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

0.1 to 10 microgram

Barnum et al. 2004

0.73 to 6.1 microgram

Perez et al. 2006

Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

Pathway diagram

Culicoides survives

Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal

Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible

animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats,

camels or wild ruminants

Culicoides becomesinfected with BTV

BT symptoms

Death Recovery

Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind


Pathway diagram

Culicoides survives





Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind

BT symptoms

Death Recovery

Culicoides becomesinfected with BTV


Culicoides survives





Culicoides is introduced into Europe by windCulicoides becomesinfected with BTV

BT symptoms

Death Recovery


Pathway diagram


Culicoides survives






BT symptoms

Death Recovery


Pathway diagram


Culicoides survives






BT symptoms

Death Recovery


Pathway diagram



Pathway diagram

Culicoides survives


Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats,



BT symptoms

Death Recovery

Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal


Culicoides survives






BT symptoms

Death Recovery


Pathway diagram


Prediction of Culicoides introduction into Europe by wind using the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM)

?? ?

? ?

?

Objectives

Wind + Particle vehiculation + Deposition

DREAM: Dust REgional Atmospheric Model

Source: http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/

There is a significant association between the dust introduction into Europe and the Culicoides introduction by wind.

Culicoides entranceDust introduction

Hypothesis

1. Data collection1. Data collection:

Introduction of dust into Europe*

Surface concentration (μg/m3/day)

2. Data analysis: 2. Data analysis:

Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe*

Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind Outbreaks in Europe*?

Materials and Methods

*Only Spain has been analysed in detail (future work would include other European Countries)

1. Data collection

1. Data collection

Cell: 0.5 x 0.5 degrees

1. Data collection

*amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (<2000 meters).

Surface concentration (μg/m3/day)*

Dry dust deposition (g/m2/day)

Wet dust deposition (g/m2/day)

Optical depth

Dust load (g/m2)

(2000-2006)

544,215 records

1. Data collection

Surface concentration (μg/m3/day)*

Dry dust deposition (g/m2/day)

Wet dust deposition (g/m2/day)

Optical depth

Dust load (g/m2)

(2000-2006)(2000-2006)

544,215 records

*amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (<1000 meters).

1. Data collection

Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe*: When and where:

Time series analysis ArcGIS

Is there any correlation between outbreak ocurrence in North Africa, dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence in Europe?

2. Data analysis

Preliminary Results

2006

2000 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

20

00

_0

1

20

00

_0

4

20

00

_0

7

20

00

_1

0

20

01

_0

1

20

01

_0

4

20

01

_0

7

20

01

_1

0

20

02

_0

1

20

02

_0

4

20

02

_0

7

20

02

_1

0

20

03

_0

1

20

03

_0

4

20

03

_0

7

20

03

_1

0

20

04

_0

1

20

04

_0

4

20

04

_0

7

20

04

_1

0

20

05

_0

1

20

05

_0

4

20

05

_0

7

20

05

_1

0

20

06

_0

1

20

06

_0

4

20

06

_0

7

20

06

_1

0

Surface concentration (μg/m3)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103

109

115

121

127

133

139

145

151

157

163

169

175

181

187

193

199

205

211

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 7

13

19

25

31

37

43

49

55

61

67

73

79

85

91

97

10

3

10

9

11

5

12

1

12

7

13

3

13

9

14

5

15

1

15

7

16

3

16

9

17

5

18

1

18

7

19

3

19

9

20

5

21

1

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Surface concentration (μg/m3) Andalucía

Balearic Islands

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000_01

2000_03

2000_05

2000_07

2000_09

2000_11

2001_01

2001_03

2001_05

2001_07

2001_09

2001_11

2002_01

2002_03

2002_05

2002_07

2002_09

2002_11

2003_01

2003_03

2003_05

2003_07

2003_09

2003_11

2004_01

2004_03

2004_05

2004_07

2004_09

2004_11

2005_01

2005_03

2005_05

2005_07

2005_09

2005_11

2006_01

2006_03

2006_05

2006_07

2006_09

2006_11

209 210 204 206April - July

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

0_01

200

0_03

200

0_05

200

0_07

200

0_09

200

0_11

200

1_01

200

1_03

200

1_05

200

1_07

200

1_09

200

1_11

200

2_01

200

2_03

200

2_05

200

2_07

200

2_09

200

2_11

200

3_01

200

3_03

200

3_05

200

3_07

200

3_09

200

3_11

200

4_01

200

4_03

200

4_05

200

4_07

200

4_09

200

4_11

200

5_01

200

5_03

200

5_05

200

5_07

200

5_09

200

5_11

200

6_01

200

6_03

200

6_05

200

6_07

200

6_09

200

6_11

132 146April - July

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

_01

2000

_03

2000

_05

2000

_07

2000

_09

2000

_11

2001

_01

2001

_03

2001

_05

2001

_07

2001

_09

2001

_11

2002

_01

2002

_03

2002

_05

2002

_07

2002

_09

2002

_11

2003

_01

2003

_03

2003

_05

2003

_07

2003

_09

2003

_11

2004

_01

2004

_03

2004

_05

2004

_07

2004

_09

2004

_11

2005

_01

2005

_03

2005

_05

2005

_07

2005

_09

2005

_11

2006

_01

2006

_03

2006

_05

2006

_07

2006

_09

2006

_11

132 146

BTV introduction in

Balearic Islands

0

10

20

30

40

50 Dust in Baleares

Outbreaks* in Baleares

Outbreaks in Tunisia

Outbreaks in Argelia

Outbreaks in Morrocco

BTV-2

BTV-2

*Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered

0

50

100

150

200

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Ag

o

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Morocco

Argelia

Tunisia104 outbreaks

76 28

Number of outbreaks

BTV introduction in

Balearic Islands

0

10

20

30

40

50 Dust in Baleares

Outbreaks* in Baleares




*Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered

4

Number of outbreaks

Undereporting?Winds from Sardinia?

0

50

100

150

200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Ago

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Morocco

Argelia

Tunisia4 outbreaks

BTV-4

Winds from Sardinia?

0

10

20

30

40

50 Dust in Andalucía

Outbreaks* in Andalucía




BTV-4

BTV-4

BTV introduction in

Andalucía

*Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered

230

0

50

100

150

200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Ago

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Morocco

Argelia

Tunisia

230 outbreaks

0

10

20

30

40

50 Dust in Andalucía

Outbreaks* in Andalucía




BTV-4BTV introduction in

Andalucía

*Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered

Undereporting?Overwintering?

Culicoides introduction is most likely to occur in the south-east part of Spain and Canary Islands (sporadically in Balearic Islands)

Highest Culicoides introduction may occur between April and July

Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind High risk for introduction of BTV (AHS) infected Culicoides Outbreaks in Argelia/Tunisia Risk for Balearic IslandsBalearic Islands Outbreaks in Morocco Risk for AndalucíaAndalucía

(Only when high number of outbreaks in N. Africa occur???)

Conclusions

Future work (2009)

Complete analysis of data for all Europe and for years 2007

and 2008 Study the correlation between dust introduction and

outbreak ocurrence (include variables such as Tª, relative humidity, etc.)

Include winds from other countries (not Africa) coming into

Europe

Analysis of the spatial origin of the wind and probability of

Culicoides survival during the wind vehiculation

Future modeling specifically for Culicoides introduction:

“DREAM” adaptation for Culicoides ”CREAM”??

0

10

20

30

40

50

Dust Andalucía Outbreaks Andalucía Tunisia Outbreaks Argelia Outbreaks

Morrocco outbreaks T_min_abs T_max_abs precipitation

0

10

20

30

40

50

Dust Andalucía Outbreaks Andalucía Tunisia Outbreaks Argelia Outbreaks

Morrocco outbreaks T_min_abs T_max_abs precipitation

Thanks for your

attention !

Documents

BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López *, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno *[email protected] Animal Health Department

BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López , José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno [email protected] Animal Health Department