View
3.052
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program, at the Atlanta Regional Commission's 2012 State of the Region Breakfast
Citation preview
DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMYIN METRO ATLANTA
Atlanta Regional Commission - Atlanta, Georgia / October 12, 2012Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS
@bruce_katz
Logistics Hub Fortune 500 Firms
World Class Universities
Arts & Culture
Talented & Diverse WorkforceLivable Centers
A vision for the next American economy
1 2 3
1
2 3
@bruce_katz
2009
Global GDP
19.9%US
21.0%BIC Countries
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010
2015
Global GDP
26.5%BIC Countries
17.9%US
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010
Global Metro Population
2009
50%
Global Metro Population
2030
60%
Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
Economic Performance2010-2011
Highest Performing MetrosLowest Performing Metros
Source: Brookings, Global MetroMonitor, January 2012
Exports Share of GDP2010
13%
United States
29% 22%
15%
30%
Japan
China Canada India
European Union
15%
Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011
Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested
Can we get back into the export game?
billionUS manufactured exports 2010
$944
Japan
$680$944
United States GermanyFrance
$409
China
$1477
$1091
Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries2010, Billions
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011
$358
ServiceImports
ServiceExports
$518
US Service TradeBillions, 2010
$160 billiontrade surplus
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)
Can the U.S. play in thelow carbon revolution?
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011)
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
1.4 millionbiosciences jobs
4.8 millionIT jobs
2.4 millionfossil fuel jobs
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011), Brookings Analysis of Battelle, BLS, Moody’s Analytics data
Source: EOP “A Framework for Revitalizing American Manufacturing” (2009)Brookings “Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing with New Research Centers” (2011)
90%manufacturing share of patents
68%manufacturing share of R&D
35%manufacturingshare of engineers
Can the U.S. be anInnovation Nation?
What do soaring Chinese wages mean
for global manufacturing?
May 10, 2012
China is the world’s largest manufacturing
power. Its output of televisions,
smartphones, steel pipes and other things
you can drop on your foot surpassed
America’s in 2010. China now accounts for a
fifth of global manufacturing. Its factories
have made so much, so cheaply that they
have curbed inflation in many of its trading
partners. But the era of cheap China may be
drawing to a close.
The End of Cheap
ChinaUS Names China On Intellectual-Property Watchlist
April 30, 2012
China's insufficient protection of intellectual property rights remains a top priority for U.S. trade policy, given the "troubling" direction of recent government measures aimed at supporting domestic innovation, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said Monday.
The coming US boom and howshale gas will fuel itApril 23, 2012
Ten years from today, the CEA and Federal Reserve chairman will again celebrate a decade of unexpected strong growth. This time the credit will go to countrywide gains from the very low energy prices found only in the US. Low-cost energy will have spawned an export surge in all sorts of goods, from chemicals to tyres.
Quake Disrupts Key Supply ChainsApril 30, 2012
The earthquake that struck northeast Japan Friday forced shutdowns across a broad spectrum of the country's industries, but the bigger impact for companies could come in the weeks ahead as the disruptions make their way through the global supply chain.The 8.9-magnitude earth quake, one of the largest on record, has crippled activity for now in a country that is a
38%manufacturing share of economic growth2009 Q3 - 2011 Q4
Source: Brookings analysis of Moody’s Economy.com data
11%wage premiumin exporting firms
Source: Istrate, Rothwell & Katz, Export Nation (2010)
Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
Non-Hispanic Whites
Asians
25%39%
56%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
United States
36%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
25%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
The next economy will be largely metropolitan
1 2 31
2
3
@bruce_katz
GeorgiaAtlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga
Population GDP
61% 66%
GeorgiaAtlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga
Population GDP
Albany, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Dalton, Gainesville, Hinesville, Macon, Rome, Savannah, Valdosta, Warner Robins
82% 87%
Service Exports
75%63%
Manufacturing Exports
Population
66%
Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Exports
Chemical Products
68% 76%
Business/Professional
Services
Computer/Electronic Products
78%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Trade Logistics
U.S. Air Cargo Weight
82% 88%
Foreign Waterborne
Cargo Weight
Airline Boardings
92%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, and PIERS data (2009)
Solar PV Energy
78% 80%
Wind Energy
Renewable Energy
Services
83%
Population
66%
Top 100 Metro Clean Economy Employment
Green Architecture & Construction
Services
90%
Source: Brookings, “Sizing the Clean Economy” (2011)
Share of U.S. Totals
College Degrees
Graduate Degrees
PatentsPopulation NIH/NSF Funding
Venture Capital Funding
74% 75% 78%66%
Top 100 Metro Innovative Assets
82%
Share of U.S. Totals
94%
Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, BLS, BEA, NIH and NSF data
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA
$20.0 B
Top 100Metros
AtlantaMetro
Export Intensity
9.8%8.0%
Export VolumeGoods & Services Exports
47.2%goods share of exports
Atlanta, GA Metro Export Dashboard
151,700Export Jobs
52.8%services share
of exports
Top Services SectorsTop Services Sectors
Travel & Tourism 18.9%
Business Services 12.1%
Royalties 6.8%
Top Manufacturing SectorsTop Manufacturing Sectors
Chemicals 7.9%
Transportation Equipment 6.3%
Food 6.2%
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Atlanta, GA Metro Clean Economy Dashboard
Source: Brookings, Sizing the Clean Economy 2011
2.0% 1.9%2.1%
1.9%
Clean Employment Intensity
Top Sectors By Industry Specialization LQ
Smart Grid 9.3
Water Efficient Products 4.2
Appliances 4.0 U.S. Top 100Metros Atlanta MetroGeorgia
43,060Clean Jobs
142,416
US AtlantaMetro
ManufacturingIntensity
8.5%6.2%
Manufacturing JobsTop Manufacturing Sectors
Atlanta, GA Metro Manufacturing Dashboard
Food 16.5%Plastics & Rubber 8.1%Computers & Electronics 7.5%Fabricated Metal Products 6.8%Printing & Support Activities 6.4%
US AtlantaMetro
Manufacturing Growth
2010 Q1 - 2011 Q4
2.7%
4.3%
Source: Brookings, Locating American Manufacturing 2012
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
Atlanta, GA Metro Opportunity Dashboard
Source: Brookings, State of Metropolitan America (2011) and The Geography of Immigrant Skills (2011)
TextAtlantaMetroTotal
Non-HispanicWhite
AfricanAmerican
Asian Hispanic
41.1%
56.7%
46.3%
34.6%
20.5%
Immigrant CompositionBy Skill Level (Age 25+)
High Skilled
LowSkilled
Middle Skilled
26.6%
41.6%
31.8%
Atlanta, GA Metro Opportunity Dashboard
Source: Brookings, Missed Opportunity: Transit and Jobs in Metropolitan America (2011)
38%
Share of Working-Age Residents with Transit Coverage
Transit Accessibility
AtlantaMetro
69%Top 100 Metro
Average
22%
Share of all Jobs Reachable via public transit in 90 minutes
AtlantaMetro
30%Top 100 Metro
Average
1 2 31 2
3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation
METROINNOVATION
@bruce_katz
Innovate Locally
Market AssessmentTarget Sectors
8% 9%12%
Economic Profile15%
12%
13%
9%
Establish Goals & Strategies
Boost SME exportsIncrease global fluency
Double exports Support key sectors
Governments
Philanthropy
Firms
Universities
Collaborate to CompeteLos Angeles
Seattle
Minneapols-Saint Paul
Portland
Northeast Ohio
Syracuse
Metropolitan Business Planning
Northeast Ohio
Metropolitan Business Planning Key manufacturing growth sectors: fuel cells, electric vehicles, organic electronics
Retool manufacturing and retrain industrial workers
Case WesternReserve
The Universityof Akron
John GlennResearch Center
Atlanta
Metropolitan Business Planning
Atlanta MetropolitanBusiness Plan
Building on Logistics Base
InnovationDistrictIn no va tion• ••
Dis trict•
A 21st Century economy shaping/place-making strategy that connects and clusters innovation-generating anchor institutions and companies with entrepreneurial firms, infrastructure, housing, retail, and amenities.
19th Century Industrial Districts 20th Century Science Parks
Innovation Districts
EmoryUniversity
GeorgiaTech
ClarkAtlanta
University
PhillipsArena
CNN CenterGeorgia
Dome
Turner Field
Centennial Olympic
Park
MorehouseCollege
City Hall
GeorgiaCapitol
GeorgiaState
Coca-Cola
Company
AtlantaFederalReserve
FoxTheatre
WoodruffArts
Center
Museumof Design
Atlanta
HighMuseum
of ArtAtlanta
SymphonyOrchestra
SavannahCollege of
Art & Design
Innovate Locally Network Globally
New York
Sao Paulo
Toronto
Lagos
Sydney
Tokyo
Shanghai
London
ParisFrankfurt
Detroit
Monterrey
Bogota
Johannesburg
Cologne
ChennaiHanoi
Chongqing
Los Angeles
Buenos Aires Durbin
Dubai
Singapore
Seoul
Tianjin
HamburgRotterdam
Atlanta’s Top Export Destinations2010 Volume
Atlanta’s Top Air Travel Destinations2011 Total Passengers
Canada
Mexico
Japan
United Kingdom
China
$3.07 B
$1.68 B
$1.43 B
$1.36 B
$1.03 B
Seoul
London
Toronto
Cancun
Montego Bay
Source: Brookings, Export Nation II (2012) Brookings analysis of all international passenger traffic between Atlanta and other global metros (2012)
188,207
185,587
177,215
165,260
97,117
Target industries: aerospace, computer and electronic products, pharmaceuticals, professional services, film and television
University ofSouthern California
University of California Los Angeles
City ofLos Angeles
Grow Los Angeles metropolitan exports
Los Angeles Regional Export Council
Los Angeles
Metropolitan Business Planning
Innovate Locally Network Globally Advocate Nationally
Council of Economic Advisors Council on Environmental Quality National Security Council
Office of Administration Office of Management & Budget Office of Nat’l Drug Control Policy
Office of Policy Development Office of Science & Technology Policy Office of the US Trade Representative
Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy
Department of Health & Human Services Department of Homeland Security Department of Housing & Urban
Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice
Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of Treasury Department of Veterans Affairs
African Development Foundation
Central Intelligence Agency
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Consumer Product Safety Commission
Corporation for National and
Community ServiceDefense Nuclear
Facilities Safety BoardEnvironmental
Protection AgencyEqual Employment
Opportunity Commission
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Farm Credit Administration
Federal Communications
CommissionFederal Deposit
Insurance CorporationFederal Election
CommissionFederal Housing Finance Board
Federal Labor Relations Authority
Federal Maritime Commission
Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service
Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission
Federal Reserve System
Federal Retirement Thrift Investment
BoardFederal Trade Commission
General Services Administration
Inter-American Foundation
Merit Systems Protection Board
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
National Archives and Records
AdministrationNational Capital
Planning Commission
National Credit Union Administration
National Foundation on the Arts and
HumanitiesNational Labor
Relations BoardNational Mediation
BoardNational Railroad
Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK)
National Science Foundation
National Transportation Safety
BoardNuclear Regulatory
CommissionOccupational Safety &
Health Review Commission
Office of Government Ethics
Office of Personnel Management
Office of Special Council
Overseas Private Investment Corporation
Peace Corps Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
Postal Rate Commission
Railroad Retirement Board
Securities and Exchange Commission
Selective Service System
Small Business Administration
Social Security Administration
Tennessee Valley Authority
Trade & Development Agency
US Agency for International Development
US Commission on Civil Rights
US International Trade Commission US Postal Service
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
CABINET AGENCIES
INDEPENDENT ESTABLISHMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS
Council of Economic Advisors Council on Environmental Quality National Security Council
Office of Administration Office of Management & Budget Office of Nat’l Drug Control Policy
Office of Policy Development Office of Science & Technology Policy Office of the US Trade Representative
Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy
Department of Health & Human Services Department of Homeland Security Department of Housing & Urban
Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice
Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of Treasury Department of Veterans Affairs
African Development Foundation
Central Intelligence Agency
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Consumer Product Safety Commission
Corporation for National and
Community ServiceDefense Nuclear
Facilities Safety BoardEnvironmental
Protection AgencyEqual Employment
Opportunity Commission
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Farm Credit Administration
Federal Communications
CommissionFederal Deposit
Insurance CorporationFederal Election
CommissionFederal Housing Finance Board
Federal Labor Relations Authority
Federal Maritime Commission
Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service
Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission
Federal Reserve System
Federal Retirement Thrift Investment
BoardFederal Trade Commission
General Services Administration
Inter-American Foundation
Merit Systems Protection Board
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
National Archives and Records
AdministrationNational Capital
Planning Commission
National Credit Union Administration
National Foundation on the Arts and
HumanitiesNational Labor
Relations BoardNational Mediation
BoardNational Railroad
Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK)
National Science Foundation
National Transportation Safety
BoardNuclear Regulatory
CommissionOccupational Safety &
Health Review Commission
Office of Government Ethics
Office of Personnel Management
Office of Special Council
Overseas Private Investment Corporation
Peace Corps Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
Postal Rate Commission
Railroad Retirement Board
Securities and Exchange Commission
Selective Service System
Small Business Administration
Social Security Administration
Tennessee Valley Authority
Trade & Development Agency
US Agency for International Development
US Commission on Civil Rights
US International Trade Commission US Postal Service
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
CABINET AGENCIES
INDEPENDENT ESTABLISHMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS
Office of the US Trade Representative
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Overseas Private Investment Corporation
Department of Commerce
Small Business Administration
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Department of CommerceOverseas Private
InvestmentCorporation
Office of the US Trade Representative
Small Business Administration
International Trade AdministrationUS Census
National Technical Information ServiceSelect USA
Bureau of Industry & SecurityNational Institute of Standards & Technology
Minority Business Development Agency
INTEGRATED METROPOLITAN EXPORT PROMOTION
Local GovernmentsPhilanthropy
FirmsUniversities
State GovernmentFederal Government
Simpson-Bowles Plan2010
$4 trillionin proposed deficit reduction
through 2020
Reduce national debt to
40%of U.S. GDP by 2035
DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMYIN METRO ATLANTA
Atlanta Regional Commission - Atlanta, Georgia / October 12, 2012Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS
@bruce_katz