Battleground BritainElection research with swing

voters in 5 key constituencies

Emerging insights

This is a presentation prepared by BritainThinks for a

Breakfast Briefing held on Wednesday 29th April 2015.

It represents an interim overview of the findings from

our Battleground Britain research part-way through the

fieldwork period (running from 19th March to the 15th

May 2015).

A full report – with comprehensive analysis of the

findings from the full fieldwork period - will be available

after the election.

Contents

• Background

• The 5 Battlegrounds

• How do swing voters feel about the campaign?

• Party reputations

• Leader images

• Some emerging themes

• Next steps

Background

Deadlock continues!

Voting intention past 4 months:

Source: May2015. Aggregated polling data from: Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI, Opinium,

Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov

- Labour

- Conservative

- UKIP

- Lib Dems

- Green

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28 Jan 2015 28 Apr 2015

Battleground Britain: our work with The Guardian

Glasgow East

Taunton Deane

Dewsbury

Ealing Central

and Acton

South Thanet

We’ve convened a panel of 12 voters in

each of five key constituencies. In each

panel:

• Demographics broadly reflective of

constituency profile

• Voting history broadly reflective of 2010

constituency outcome

• All declared certain to vote in 2015 but, at

the time of the first focus group,

undecided as to which party

We’ve been following these voters

through the campaign…

Meeting them in person for

group discussions…

…and tasking them to tell us

what they’re thinking and

feeling through a mobile app

The 5 Battlegrounds

Thanet South

Source: Lord Ashcroft

Thanet South

Thanet South

Some of our panelists…

Thanet South

Farage divides opinion among our

panel: either new and exciting or

dangerous and a ‘stain’ on the

reputation of the area – or both

What looked to be a straightforward

UKIP/Conservative race is actually a

complex three-way battle

But his rivals have shortcomings, too:

Conservative is ex-UKIP and invisible

locally, while Labour is too

inexperienced

“They’re all out for themselves.

The local lad [Will Scobie] may

be the best one but our choice is

limited. It’s choice amongst

scoundrels. If I could change one

thing it would be that they have

to keep their promises.”

“Before, I was leaning towards

UKIP, and then the Conservatives,

but Cameron has just kept his

game the same, so now I’d be

UKIP and then Labour. Labour’s

policies seem to be a lot better

than Cameron’s.”

He is a snake but he basically

says what he thinks, he doesn’t

try to get people on his side. I

think he’s talking honestly and

not just trying to get people’s

votes, he’s saying what his party

would like to do.”

Glasgow East Glasgow East

Source: Lord Ashcroft

Glasgow East

Some of our panelists…

Glasgow East

The SNP’s popularity is not, however,

down to its position on independence -

but because it would best represent

Scotland’s interests

Our panelists are highly engaged with

the election, having been energised by

the referendum campaign

Labour are believed to become part of

‘the Establishment’, along with the

media, Westminster (and London)

“I feel as though Labour don’t

want to come out and say

anything that they really want to

do because they wouldn’t get the

votes down in England as they

would in Scotland.”

“I think what the referendum’s

done is open people’s eyes to

politics in a way that it’s never

done before, certainly for me

anyway. People will have a keen

eye out for the election. I just

hope we don’t get forgotten

about afterwards like last time.”

“They’ve accepted the no vote,

and it’s not the referendum

that’s keeping people voting SNP.

They’re a strong voice for

Scotland, their policies are good,

and they’re speaking well.”

Dewsbury

Dewsbury

Source: Lord Ashcroft

Dewsbury

Some of our panelists…

Dewsbury

Knowledge and awareness of local

candidates (and the incumbent MP) is

very low

Voters in Dewsbury feel totally

forgotten by politicians and

Westminster and that nothing ever

changes no matter who they vote for

Smaller parties’ emergence seen as

exciting – but not applicable to the area

(where only ‘Big Two’ have a presence)

“You do hear a lot more about

Labour and Conservatives.

Obviously the other parties

aren’t really bringing themselves

forward or doing much in the

local area. They’re not selling

themselves to us.”

“For us, things aren’t going to

get any better for us. We feel

like it’s going to stay the same.

We can’t see things getting

better for Dewsbury – we’re

neglected here. Nothing ever

happens here.”

“I’ve had nobody at my door

about the election, it’s just what

you get through the letterbox,

nothing face to face, no knocking

on your door.”

Taunton Deane

Taunton Deane

Source: Lord Ashcroft

Taunton Deane

Some of our panelists…

Taunton Deane

The Lib Dems don’t receive credit for

the recovery and have lost their USPs

as a result of coalition

The Taunton area is seen to be thriving;

panelists feel better off and are

inclined to reward Conservatives

Panelists are very familiar with the

local candidates here – and this

familiarity impacts heavily on voting

intention

“Jeremy Browne has certainly

been popular, he’s been opening

a lot of fetes and having his

photo taken but what the actual

policies are and what they bring

in in real terms is probably

difficult to measure.”

“When I left uni in 2009, you

couldn’t get a job and everything

was crap. In comparison, that’s

all completely changed. It’s a

safe option to choose them:

things will stay as they are or

get slightly better. Other parties

are a bit of a gamble. If it isn’t

broken, don’t fix it.”

“It’s as if they go under the radar

all the time. They never really

stick their head up above the

crowd and do something that says

‘Hey, listen to me’.”

Ealing Central and Acton

Source: Lord Ashcroft

Ealing Central & Acton

Ealing Central and Acton

Some of our panelists…

Ealing Central and Acton

Our panelists also feel less attached to

either of the two main parties – and are

quite receptive to smaller parties

The issues that matter in London are

quite distinctive: cost of living & green

issues (but not immigration or jobs)

Many have expressed considerable

frustration at having to think

‘tactically’ (e.g. Lib Dems in 2010)

“I don’t want to waste my vote…

I’m torn between voting tactically

and just going with my heart. I

don’t know what to do and I’m

quite anxious about it.”

“I’ve clawed my way up at work

for five years and I can just about

pay rent and bills and that’s it.

Disposable income – forget it... ”

“No-one’s mentioned the

protest vote. I think a lot of

people will feel like they can’t

vote Labour or Conservative

because they’re too shifty or for

whatever reason. They could go

to UKIP or to the Green Party...

If I voted for the Greens I would

be voting with my heart so it

wouldn’t be a protest vote but

it would for some people.”

How do swing voters feel about the

campaign?

We asked our voters to bring in three images

to show how they felt about the election…

As the weeks have gone on, our voters

haven’t seen much to make them feel better

“It doesn’t matter who you

vote for, because nothing

ever changes”

“To be very honest nothing

I've read or seen has really

got my election juices

flowing despite being very

interested”

“I don’t think they’re trying to

engage young people at all. My

friends have no interest

whatsoever – they just turn up

and vote and they don’t know

why”

“What should I put on the app if I

don’t have any thoughts about the

election?!”

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Comments

Commenters

For our voters, there have been a few ‘key

election moments’ to date

7-Way Leaders' Debate

Trident - Michael Fallon

brands Miliband 'weak'

Party manifesto

launches

Opposition Leaders'

Debate

IFS claims that no

parties have given

enough deficit-

cutting detail

Cameron attacks

SNP/Labour coalition

• The 7 way debate

• Nicola Sturgeon’s performance

• Farage’s HIV reference

• Interest in the smaller parties

• General coverage of the

future of the NHS

• With just 1 mention of LD pledge

• The couple from Scunthorpe

who won the lottery twice

In a week when:

• Parliament was dissolved and the

short campaign began

• Conservatives and Labour squabbled

about necessary tax rises

• Lib Dems pledged an extra £2.5bn

on mental health

• 100 business leaders signed open

letter supporting Conservatives

• Party leaders took part in 7-way

televised debate

• Leaked memo alleged Sturgeon

supported Cameron over Miliband

• Green party replaces candidate

facing jail sentence

• Poll put Farage behind in Thanet

South

• And more…

The stories that stood out:

At the local level, the snowstorm of leaflets

is also failing to make much of an impact

“Since the election has drawn near

and post has been coming through

the door I've saved all the

advertising campaigns coming to

my door and I'm stood looking at it

all now and think wow! So much

info from different parties to take

in. I’m feeling Confused.com!!”

12%

88%

Of the 444 election diary entries, only a small fraction are in reference to the local campaign:

5%

12%

18%

63%

Housing

Immigration

NHS

Economy

Voters say that they’re most interested in

policies, but in the end are falling back on

impressions of the parties and leaders

27%73%

Of the 444

election diary

entries, a

quarter refer to

policy areas:

“There’s that difference between what a politician is like as a person

and knowing what their policies are. I didn’t know anything about Ed

Miliband before, but then when I saw the feature on him with his wife

and kids and the opposition debate and I saw him as very similar to David

Cameron. I thought ‘I quite like them both’.”

Party reputations

In the polls, party brands move slowly, if at all…

… and the relative strengths rarely shift

Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls

Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls

And policy views of the parties aren’t

changing much either

The Conservative Party

The Conservative Party

• Expected to walk it

• Reliance on “LTEP” quickly became tiring

• Getting noticed for the wrong things• Fallon

• No third term for Cameron

134Mentions

32%

46%

+-

“I think that zero hour

contract thing is the

Conservatives because they’re

the party that talks about the

economy and jobs”

“If I hear

Cameron say

‘long term

economic plan’

one more time…!”

• Policies that landed…• Cuts to welfare

• Deficit reduction

• Protecting the NHS from spending cuts

• And some that didn’t…• Immigration

• Drop in IHT

The Labour Party

The Labour Party

• Unclear what they stand for now

• Deep resentment among our voters in Scotland and Dewsbury

• Much harder to pin down their one or two key policies

146Mentions

30%

42%

+-

“They’re on about

money for 16 year

olds or something

like that”

“Now all they care about

is people in London.

They’ve totally forgotten

us and their working class

roots”

• Policies that landed…• Grants for 16-18 year olds

• Cutting tuition fees

• Freezing energy bills

• For several, none at all

• And some that didn’t…• Cutting the deficit/balancing books

• Non doms

• Childcare

The Lib Dems

The Lib Dems

• Lacking any kind of identity

• No discernable impact after 5 years in Government

• Dependent on profile and popularity of local candidates

30 Mentions

50%

32%

+-

“Stopping

Trident (I

think), or

was that last

time?!”

• Policies that landed…• Funding for the NHS

• Not renewing Trident

• Again, for several of our voters, none at all or historic policies including tuition fees

• And some that didn’t…• Funding for education

• Mental health focus specifically

“I personally can’t think of

anything my local MP has done but

you do hear good things about him

so he must have done something.”

UKIP

UKIP

• Less divisive than their

leader

• For some, speaking to

traditional ‘values’

• But still very much a

‘one trick’ party

60 Mentions

35%

56%

+-

• Policies that landed…

• Curbing immigration

• Straight in/out EU referendum

• Cutting foreign aid

• And some that didn’t…

• Any that don’t relate to

immigration

“There’s a dislocation between the people who

support UKIP and Nigel who is of a different class –

I think we think that it’s more of a working class

support, but with more of an upper class leader”

The SNP

The SNP

• Stood up for Scotland in the referendum (but known for little else)

• Post TV debates and policy announcements, seen to represent real hope for Scotland

• Hearts winning over heads

50 Mentions

56%

28%

+-

• Policies that landed…• An end to austerity

• Not renewing Trident

• Increasing the minimum wage

• (Many of Labour’s policies)

• And some that didn’t…• More affordable homes

• Debt as a downside to spending increases

“They’ve accepted the no vote,

and it’s not the referendum

that’s keeping people voting SNP.

They’re a strong voice in

Scotland, their policies are good,

and they’re speaking well.”

“They’re going

to put a stop to

austerity.

Services will be

better.”

Leader images

David Cameron

“I think he’s a good

person, even if his

party isn’t”

“He comes across as a winner – he

knows how to do it. He seems

focused and determined even

when there are things up against

him.”“He’s a stand up chap.

I’d lend him a tenner”

Ed Miliband

“He’s a decent guy, I think he’s just

ineffective”

“I don’t think

Labour have a

strong candidate,

he’s just all they

had”

“At last Miliband seems

to have stopped

tiptoeing around and

using bland statements

that grabs no one. He

has started talking

about what so many are

worried about”

Nick Clegg

“I voted for them at the

last election. I thought

Nick Clegg had a really

strong presence. He was

making a huge thing out

of tuition fees and, when

they went back on that, I

remember feeling

personally betrayed.”

“Lib Dems are the norm round

here. They’re like the go-to

option if you’re not sure”

Nigel Farage

“He’s a snake, ruthless, but that’s why I’d

vote for him – the rest are trying to be

nice, and he doesn’t care if he’s popular or

what people think, he’s just trying to get

elected by saying what he will do “

“I think he’s a stand up guy, I’d

definitely go out down the pub

with him.”

Nicola Sturgeon

“I definitely warmed to Nicola

Sturgeon – and that surprised me.

I’m not voting for her – I’m voting

for the party, but listening to her

speak made me think, maybe I’m

not listening to so many lies.”

“She kicked butt at the

Leaders’ Debates. It was

really refreshing. She beat

all the men!”

With the exception of Nicola Sturgeon, all

leaders are converging (although this reflects

a big improvement for Ed Miliband)

-80

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-40

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60

12/27/14 1/16/15 2/5/15 2/25/15 3/17/15 4/6/15 4/26/15 5/16/15

Leader Rating: Net well/badly

Source: YouGov

Some emerging themes

Voters filter what they see through what they

already know…

Labour’s ‘deficit lock’ is ignored by most who

believe them to be spendthrift – but noticed

by those (e.g. in Glasgow) opposed to austerity

The Conservatives are trusted to get the

deficit down – but claims that the benefits of

recovery are widespread fall on deaf ears

UKIP-leaners in Thanet South have absorbed

Farage’s positives and screened out any

missteps

“I agree with Farage on overseas

aid and the waste of money on

Europe. Increase aid, if you

want to donate to charity, do it

out of your pocket and not

mine.”

“I just don’t think austerity

would be dealt with effectively

enough by Labour, and I don’t

think they would keep all their

promises. I’m beginning to lack

any trust at all in them.”

In general, the campaign has served to strengthen swing voters’

existing views rather than prompt reappraisal:

… Which is why policies only land if they

symbolise a deeper truth

Policies that resonate with long-held values

e.g. Labour’s Non-Doms pledge resonates with a broader desire

for ‘fairness’, especially amongst ‘abandoned’ Labour supporters

Counter-intuitive policies (very) occasionally prompt reassessment

e.g. Sturgeon appealing beyond parochial Scottish interests

Policies that confirm an existing prejudice

e.g. Labour’s pledges are ‘spend, spend, spend’, whereas

Conservative spending is rarely questioned

On some issues, the two main parties are

mirror images of one another…

Competent but uncaring Well-meaning but not competent

Strong on the economy – but

doesn’t benefit people like me

Strong on cost of living – but

spend, spend, spend

Dangerous on the NHS Well-meaning on the NHS

… But for many voters, they’re two

sides of the same coin

“All the parties are talking

about things that aren’t that

important. … It’s almost like a

little show: ‘who can win the

verbal war?’ They’re just talking

to each other””

“Did he need to say 'the

economic chaos of Ed

Milliband'?!! Isn't that a little

ridiculous?!? Saying that, Ed

Milliband sounds equally

ridiculous saying that there will

be a lost 2 years immediately if

the Tories stay in power.”

Looking and sounding the same• Posh, career politicians

• Drawn from a ‘poncey’, Southern elite

Talking to each other, not to me• With policy distinctions and in-jokes I don’t understand

Competing on the same small patch of ground• Smallness of policy and ambition

• Mealy-mouthed and compromising on big issues

Focused on a small group of voters that I’m

not a part of

Disillusionment has challenged their duopoly…

The attractiveness of the smaller parties is all about rejection of the compromised Westminster establishment:

In Glasgow East, voting SNP is not about

independence but representation (as Labour

seen as part of the Southern bloc)

It’s not contradictory to be considering UKIP

and the Greens; smaller parties judged by

what they’re not (rather than what they are)

The Lib Dems have lost their distinctive

appeal by entering the coalition and

becoming part of ‘the Establishment’

It’s hard for them because they’ve

been overshadowed by the

coalition. I don’t think they have a

clear identity anymore, they lost it

when they went in to coalition. It’s

hard to imagine them, really.”

“I feel sorry for the North of

England. At least we have the SNP

speaking up for us. They’ve got no

one.”

“I could go UKIP, or maybe Green”

… But the concept of coalition isn’t yet fully

embedded (even after 5 years)

“How are they going to work

together in a coalition if they can’t

even be civil to each other in a TV

debate?”

• Some don’t know what a

coalition is

• Some are cynical about the

feasibility of coalitions

• Some have preferences for

‘politically difficult’

combinations

“I’m really sorry to interrupt and I

know this sounds really stupid, but

what is a coalition? No one’s ever

actually explained it to me.”

“I think that the SNP would work

with either Labour or Conservatives.

It will keep either of them in check

and honest.”

What’s next?

A final wave of focus groups in each constituency

Continued mobile ethnography to gauge reactions to

the election result (and wrangling)

A full report with comprehensive analysis of the full

fieldwork period (and an event to discuss the lessons

learned)

BritainThinks fieldwork notes:britainthinks.com/battleground-britain

Guardian coverage:theguardian.com/politics/series/battleground-britain

If you have any questions, please get in touch

with Raph at rmalek@britainthinks.com