Britain’s big conversation - Weber Shandwick UKwebershandwick.co.uk/.../2016/07/Britains-Big-Conversation_FINAL.pdf · Britain’s big conversation By Hugo Winn, Diego Céspedes

Britain’s big conversation

By Hugo Winn, Diego Céspedes Barrales, Colin Byrne

A Weber Shandwick report of the UK-EU Referendum.

In Weber Shandwick’s most comprehensive analysis of media use during an election cycle to date, we manually analysed 7,500 Twitter, Facebook and Print Press tweets, posts and articles, using a new Big Content process. The aim was to find out how social media users, authors and pundits framed the 2016 EU Referendum over two months of intensive study.

The findings provide a unique picture of the issues that millions of engaged voters cared about during the election and the role different media channels played in forming public opinion.

Introduction

Weber Shandwick is a full service global communication firm.

The company does not take – and never has taken - a position on the EU Referendum, maintaining a long tradition of impartiality on political events.

The results in this report are split into four sections. First, ‘Impact’ discusses the potential effect of different online channels on voter perceptions in the referendum. Second, ‘Issues’ analyses the differing importance of key voter issues in social media and press discussion. Thirdly, ‘Campaign’ addresses how widely discussed and covered the official debates about the Remain and Leave campaigns were during the referendum. Finally ‘Democracy’ discusses to what extent the Referendum debate veered into politics and gossip rather than issues.

Contents

6 About us

8 Executive summary

10 Key findings

12 Foreword

14 Results

16 Impact

19 Issues

34 Campaign

44 Democracy

48 Conclusion

About usHugo Winn

Executive Researcher, Weber Shandwick

Hugo is an executive researcher in Weber Shandwick’s London office handling research and special projects. He is a graduate of The London School of Economics and Durham University.

Colin Byrne

CEO EMEA, Weber Shandwick

Colin Byrne is one of the UK’s leading PR and public affairs practitioners, with over thirty years’ experience spanning domestic and international public relations programmes, communications and campaign strategy, politics and public affairs, CSR and issues management.

Diego Céspedes Barrales

Postgraduate and Research Assistant, London School of Economics

Diego is a postgraduate in Politics and Communication at The London School of Economics and has published research into communication and policy trends in the UK and Latin America.

About the authors

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Big Content is an online analytical technique developed by Weber Shandwick that maps the dynamics that lie within content during discrete and comparable events.

Using this technique, we can address a campaign’s three core public spheres: campaigns (and their advocates), media (provided here as online media) and the public (provided here as Twitter and Facebook users).

This mapping technique is used to trace the election’s narratives as they form, spread, morph and decline among these three groups - identifying who and what influences these dynamics.

Big Content is an exciting new frontier in digital campaign analysis. Its manual and rigorous nature offers reliable and flexible results. Its focus not on campaign effectiveness, but on how different social users exist within their distinct ecosystems, is a powerful next step in digital campaign discussion.

Everyone’s talking about it. A new era in marketing. The Engagement Era. It’s a time when people are engaging with each other and the brands and issues they care about in entirely new ways.

Today, people are taking control from the brands and organisations that used to do most of the talking and shaping their own stories.

At Weber Shandwick, we understand this new era because engaging people in conversations that matter to them is what we’ve always done. Winning today requires storytelling that’s relevant, personal and genuine. It means understanding the new power that trusted advocates wield. And, more than anything,

winning demands content that’s provocative, original and irresistible.

We are a creative studio of writers, designers, builders, strategists, conversation-starters and storytellers. We are passionate about our clients and, through our specialisms and dedicated Practices, we are deeply knowledgeable about their businesses. And while we are a big, global organisation, we believe that collaboration is the best way to succeed.

The Engagement Era is new to some, but not to us. We’re the kind of marketing company built for today. Because we didn’t start building yesterday.

About Big Content Analysis

About Weber Shandwick

Britain’s Big Conversation A Weber Shandwick Report

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Executive summaryBehind the scenes of the most important decision British voters have faced in the last 30 years was a fierce communications battle over controlling narrative. Narratives of security, stability, progress, and change.

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On 22nd January 2013 Prime Minister David Cameron announced his intention to offer the British people a ‘simple choice’ by the end of 2017 between staying in the EU under new renegotiated terms or leaving.

Many speculated that this referendum was born out of an upswing in Eurosceptic sentiment within the backbenches of Cameron’s own party, rather than a significant change in public opinion. Most started the campaign confident that Britain would vote to remain in the European Union.

This confidence quickly evaporated as the official campaign period drew nearer. The European migrant crisis and ongoing economic problems in southern Europe put the spotlight on the European Union’s inability to maintain economic and social cohesion on the continent and undermined the Remain argument that EU membership was the best route for British stability and security. Between February and May 2016 polls showed a dead heat between both sides, with Leave receiving a jump in support less than three weeks before Election Day.

The closeness of the race favoured investment in communications and less reliance on traditional campaign approaches by both sides. This was made all the more important due to the large number of undecided voters, a bloc which hovered rigidly around 15% prior to the official campaign period.

The eventual Leave result was considered a shock by pundits and commentators on political races, not least because it conflicted with final polls on the eve of the referendum. However our research shows that the popular momentum that the Leave campaign had managed to gather amongst voters, with simple messages of sovereignty and immigration, resonated with large swathes of the population.

This analysis focuses on the official campaign period - 13 April to 23 June 2016 - detailing the structure and nature of the online conversation and media coverage during this crucial period. During the course of the campaign our team used a unique Big Content methodology to manually analyse 7,500 items, including 3,298 tweets, 3,301 Facebook posts and 901 press articles.

Ultimately this data is used to compare press media with social media, and within social media to compare the nature of the referendum conversation across channels.


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Key findings

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The issue of sovereignty Britain’s democracy and place in the world – dominated conversation on social media throughout the referendum.

The online press showed a favourable bias towards Remain.

The Leave campaign dominated social media conversations.

29% of all posts on social media focused on the issue, followed by trade (15.9%), immigration (15.5%) and jobs (11.2%).

19% of all online press articles during the Referendum campaign were focused on the issue, compared with 14% of posts on Facebook and 5% of Tweets.

The interventions of Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney and U.S. President Barack Obama, sparked the largest increase in discussion online during the referendum campaign.

66.8% of all Facebook and Twitter posts during the official campaign were primarily focused on the leave campaign. 19.3% of posts in the same period focused on the Remain campaign.

64% of all online articles during the referendum campaign focused on the Remain campaign. 46% of online articles in the same period focused on the Leave campaign. This trend grew in the last four weeks of the campaign.

The online press was more focused on immigration than social media users.

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The online press overwhelmingly focused on the politics (gossip, political strategy, polls etc) rather than the issues of the referendum.

Facebook users were the most concerned with issues, rather than political strategy, during the referendum campaign.

52.1% of articles during the official campaigns primarily focused on the ‘politics’ of the campaign.

76.8% of Facebook posts were focused on issues compared with 72.6% of Twitter posts.

No single issue dominated the Remain campaign. In comparison posts about Leave overwhelmingly focused on the issue of sovereignty (33.7%) and to a lesser extent immigration (17.6%).

14% reported the channel had grabbed their attention and had relatively low exposure (7% reported experiencing the channel). In comparison 27% of respondents reported that Facebook grabbed their attention and 26% reported experiencing the channel during the campaign.

30% of voters reported receiving news and information about the referendum from online media, making it the 6th most important news channel, 4% higher than Facebook (26%) and 23% higher than Twitter (7%).

On social media discussion of the Remain campaign was primarily focused on issues to do with the referendum (88.1%). Conversations about the Leave campaign were significantly more focused on political strategy and gossip (38.2%).

Twitter had a lower impact than Facebook on voters during the referendum.


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Foreword

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Social media played a huge role in the conversations around the 2015 UK General Election as it did in the Scottish Independence Referendum the year before. By the start of last year’s campaign there were 35 million Facebook users and 15 million Twitter subscribers in the UK. 2,5 million tweets using the #ge2015 hashtag alone were sent during the campaign.

Having charted the impact of social media on that campaign in a report with The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford University, and given my firm’s leadership in both digital communications and public affairs in the UK, I was keen to look at the same issues in a very different campaign - the recent and historic EU Referendum. The biggest national conversation for decades.

In practice most of the work was done by my brilliant research assistant Hugo Winn and his intern team - to them my sincere thanks. Having a good idea is the easy bit. Turning it into reality was Hugo’s hard work and vision!

Our findings suggest that Leave dominated the social media conversation, that their key theme differed from that of the Leave inclined media, and that Remain’s voice was both quieter online and less focussed on a few key emotive issues.

A truly historic and far reaching decision by Britain, powered for the first time by social media.

Colin Byrne

CEO EMEA, Weber Shandwick

June 2016


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Results

Results

Impact“ It is clear that Facebook should be a weapon of choice in any political campaign. It is also noteworthy that online news has now outstripped print media, reflecting the rise in news acquired by consumers through mobile devices.” Jon McLeod, Chairman UK Corporate, Financial and Public Affairs

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Twitter – Not a primary channel for voters. Influential with reportersOur findings show that Twitter is a critical channel for influencing the agenda and nature of political debate.

There is no question that messages, images and videos posted on the social network have an increasing influence on news production. However polling by Weber Shandwick in conjunction with Pureprofile (2016) reveals that the social network played a minimal role grabbing voter attention. 14% reported the channel had grabbed their attention. Voters also had relatively

low exposure to Twitter during the campaign: only 7% reported experiencing the channel during the EU Referendum, significantly behind Facebook.

This would seem to chime with internal campaign attitudes towards the social network. In April James McGrory, the chief campaign spokesperson for Britain Stronger in Europe, told the Financial Times that the platform, although unlikely to directly sway voters, is a good method to influence the Westminster — and media — debate. Similarly, the Leave campaign was rumoured to have said in February 2016 that ‘Twitter doesn’t count’ 1.

This is not to say that Twitter is irrelevant in the campaign mix.

Twitter has changed the way news gathering takes place. Journalists increasingly look to the platform rather than their traditional sources for a quick story. In the fast paced media environment of a referendum, this is still important.

Journalists organise their Twitter feeds into lists, usually using aggregating software like HootSuite alongside geographical software like Twitterfall, to rapidly respond to unfolding stories . In this way Twitter remains relevant to the media agenda: online news articles and newspaper articles were among the most impactful channels during the EU Referendum, scoring 51% and 44% respectively. However Twitter’s impact as a direct channel to voters was more limited.

Fig. 1: Facebook steams ahead of Twitter as the impact channel

Experience and impact of different media channels during EU Referendum. Source: Weber Shandwick, Pureprofile, 2016

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1Financial Times, 26 April, 2016


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Online articles had the biggest impactWhilst Facebook and Twitter lagged behind other media channels in their ability to influence and engage voters in the EU Referendum campaign, one form of online media was noticeably powerful: Online news articles.

30% of respondents to Weber Shandwick and Pureprofile’s poll reported receiving news and information about the referendum from online media, the sixth most important news channel for voters. Online media was 4% higher than Facebook (26%) and 23% higher than Twitter (7%). Online news was also significantly higher than other forms of online media to grab voters’ attention during the Referendum: 55% of respondents reported it had grabbed their

attention during the campaign, with only 24% of respondents replying it had not.

This result demonstrates a shift in orthodoxy in how campaign organisations treat social media. It should remind us that promoting communications directly within social channels is less effective than the linking of third party content.

Social networks increasingly support rich linked content, particularly Facebook which is expanding in this area. According to a Reuters report into digital use in 2012, 60% of the respondents mentioned that they liked to click on news links that came from someone they knew compared to a link from elsewhere. Most links were found to be shared via Facebook (55%), followed by Email (33%) and Twitter (23%)3 .

Fig. 2: Link to articles or lose your impact

Experience and impact of online media channels during EU Referendum. Source: Weber Shandwick, Pureprofile, 2016

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3Digital Report of Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. 2012

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Issues“ Our research compellingly demonstrates that on social media theoretical and ideologically driven issues of sovereignty dominated discussion of the EU Referendum. The orthodox view that economic factors are the number one concern for the average voter, does not stack up in the online world. The picture online at least during this referendum is more complex, demonstrating a potential shift towards new values and ideals in a ‘post truth’ political age.” Hugo Winn, Executive Researcher at Weber Shandwick

Results

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On social media it’s sovereignty, stupid…‘It’s the economy, stupid’, that famous adage from Bill Clinton’s 1992 Presidential campaign and fable of modern political communication. Yet the view that voters react primarily to economic messages has rarely shown itself to be true in referendums, which tend to focus on more theoretical and longer-term issues of identity, power and nationalism.

Our research shows that although issues of trade (15.9%), immigration (15.5%) and jobs (11.2%) were all prominent topics of conversation on social media during the campaign, the issue of Britain’s ability to self-govern and create lawmaking (a theme we refer to in this report simply as ‘sovereignty’ was significantly more dominant in voter conversations. 28.6% of

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Fig.3: It’s sovereignty, stupid, on social media...

The distribution of issues in social media conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

IMG: Editathon at Newspeak House, East London, on May 14, 2016 to improve information about the issues about the EU and Referendum on Wikipedia. Source: Jwslubbock, 2016

4 Chatham House, Britain, the EU and the Sovereignty Myth, May 2016

all posts and tweets about the Referendum mentioned or discussed it with reference to the issue. Throughout the 11 weeks of the official campaign, ‘sovereignty’ was – by some margin - the most discussed issue. It peaked in Week 6 with 56.5% share of all conversations online.

The reasons for this are complex and multifaceted. The debate over Britain’s relationship with the EU has, in many ways, always been tied to theoretical and normative ideas of identity and power. In particular the Leave campaign made sovereignty one of their central campaign messages, consistently telling voters to “take back control” on June 23rd.

The question of how much ‘sovereignty’ we have ceded to the European Union is entirely subjective. As Chatham House pointed out in May4, discussions of sovereignty throughout the campaign chose to ignore the nature by which “successive British governments have chosen to pool aspects of the country’s sovereign power in the EU”. However, it is precisely because of this subjectivity – mixed with its moral and emotional dimension – that it thrived as a conversation point for thousands of online voters throughout the campaign.

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… The one issue that bound Twitter and Facebook users togetherAlongside being the most discussed issue during the campaign, sovereignty was also one of the only issues to have driven discussion equally on Twitter and Facebook. Although there was slight differentiation between Twitter and Facebook interest (particularly in Week 6 when the difference was 11.4%), users of both channels appear to have been almost equally interested in the issue of whether EU decision-making has undermined British parliamentary democracy, and that leaving the EU is the only way for the British people to regain control of their sovereignty. On average 17.2% of Tweets and 20.7% of Facebook posts focused on this core issue.

The fact that sovereignty acted as a binding force for Twitter and Facebook users suggests that theoretical issues, particularly those around power and identity have a common appeal for users on both channels. This dispels the common myth that “Twitter users are left wing and Facebook users are right wing”5, which has been popularised in the political press. Instead it paints a more complex portrait of which issues and values drive political discussion on these two key channels.

Fig.4: Sovereignty – an issue for Twitter and Facebook users

Sovereignty in Facebook and Twitter conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

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5 Helen Lewis The echo chamber of social media is luring the left into cosy delusion and dangerous insularity, July 2015


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But in the press, sovereignty was secondary as an issue to immigrationOur analysis shows that despite the prominence of sovereignty as an issue on social media, the press was less focused and chose to cover a broader range of issues, particularly immigration and investment. 23.3% of issue-related articles in the press focused on investment into and out of the UK, and 19% focused on immigration.

In sharp comparison with the social media sovereignty conversation, only 10.2% of press articles primarily focused on this issue, 18.8% less than on social media.

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Fig. 5: The Press was more concerned with trade and immigration than sovereignty

Issues in Press conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

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The interventions of President Obama and Mark Carney sparked the greatest debate about sovereignty online…The EU Referendum was almost unique in modern British history in its international appeal and significance.

It is perhaps incongruous that an electoral event based largely on British national values and politics was the focus of more international intervention than any previous contest in British recent memory.

International organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made their presence felt early on in the debate. Foreign governments and leaders were similarly vocal.

Putting aside the comments of European leaders including French President François Hollande and Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, our analysis shows that the intervention of international foreign leaders were a key trigger for discussion about Britain’s democratic independence or sovereignty during the referendum.

“ Despite almost continuous campaign appearances by Britain’s biggest domestic politicians it was the interventions of third parties that decidedly drove Britain’s EU Referendum conversation on social media” Hugo Winn, Executive Researcher Weber Shandwick

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President Obama’s visit to the UK in mid-May and warnings that Britain would join “the end of the queue” in its renegotiation of an independent trade deal with the U.S was met with particularly lively debate. During his visit, sovereignty discussions increased 20.3%, topping out at 41% of total discussion on social media.

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Fig. 6: The big hitters on social media

Impact of Mark Carney and President Obama’s interventions on the EU Referendum social media conversation. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

A second and equally important peak in conversations about British sovereignty during the campaign was the intervention of Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney. His statement that leaving the EU could lead to ‘less growth’ sparked a heated row on social media as to whether the bank of England was undermining its position of impartiality, and what this meant for British democratic sovereignty. Following his intervention, 56.6% of social media posts mentioned sovereignty. Mr. Carney’s comments also drove a significant increase in social media discussion of the impact of Brexit on trade, which briefly eclipsed sovereignty as the most discussed topic online.

This result demonstrates what political analysts have been arguing for some time: that issues of sovereignty and national pride about democracy run particularly strongly in the UK. Undermining this relationship is commonly viewed as a threat to shared values.

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...Whilst campaigners and spokespeople caused little discussionBoth campaigns invested heavily in social media campaigns throughout the referendum campaign. However, our research demonstrates that for the most part these initiatives had little impact on the nature of the debate. For example, the launch of #Votin, a social media initiative targeted at youth mobilisation launched by education minister Sam Gyimah MP on May 24th, does not seem to have changed the makeup of issues within the EU debate online6.

Furthermore, there is little evidence from our research that domestic spokespeople such as David Cameron, Boris Johnson or Michael Gove were the focus of significant social media discussion during the referendum. Although we did see a base level of discussion driven by the campaign spokespeople, particularly at the outset of the campaign, however they were not responsible for large spurts in discussion.

6 This is not to say that such initiatives are not worthwhile. Our experience has shown that young people are increasingly shy about voicing their political views online, partly out of fear of disrupting their social image online. Our research demonstrates that initiatives such as #Votin did not spark deep conversation online, however their impact on voting intention is not analysed here.

Prime Minister David Cameron (right) holding a joint press conference with US President Barack Obama. The US president said the UK would be ‘in the back of the queue’ for a trade deal if it left the EU, one of the most significant events in the EU referendum campaign. The event had a sizeable effect on the discussion of the UK’s sovereignty during the campaign.


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On social media, issues of trade remained flat during the campaignThe issue of trade has run throughout the referendum campaign as a core message and battleground for both campaigns. Official Government communications put trade to the EU at 44% of goods and services7, arguing that access to the single market was the most important reason for remaining. For the Leave campaign, the ability to negotiate new trade deals unencumbered by EU trade restrictions was a key narrative - important not just as an economic argument, but also for presenting a global, outward looking vision for Britain’s future.

However, despite the importance placed upon this issue in campaign literature and communications, our research shows that trade was never at the front of voters’ minds, particularly as the campaign progressed. Only 10% of social media posts about the referendum mentioned trade, with Twitter users slightly less interested in the issue (9% compared with 10.9% of Facebook users).

As a critical part of the economic debate for both sides, this result again demonstrates that economic issues played a lesser role than theoretical and ideology driven issues online during the referendum campaign. As one social media user put it, “It has become clear to me in these last few days that this is not a referendum on policy, but rather on the direction of the country. It’s a referendum on the national spirit and whether we are going to give into hatred and xenophobic fear or rise above.” (22 June 2016).

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Twitter FacebookFig. 7: Trade – the issue that lost momentum

Trade in Facebook and Twitter conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

4 Government communications, 2016

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Immigration was an issue for Facebook users. But not on Twitter.One issue that did spark lively and consistent debate online throughout the campaign was immigration. For many the issue of open borders and European migration was a core reason for wanting to leave the European Union - whilst for many others, the opportunity to move freely within the European Union was an important benefit of European integration. To differentiate between these two issues we coded two variables, one for immigration (those coming to the UK) and one for freedom of movement (those wanting to visit other countries). The difference in volume of conversation between the two issues is telling: 9.60% of social media posts during the referendum campaign mentioned immigration whilst only 2.44% mentioned freedom of movement.

Fig. 8: Immigration - principally an issue for Facebook users

Immigration in Facebook and Twitter conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

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“ Whether Vote Leave’s investment in immigration posts on Facebook paid off, or whether Facebook users are simply more anti-immigration than Twitter users, one thing is for certain: A dichotomy is emerging between how different social users approach this core topic” Diego Céspedes Barrales, London School of Economics


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Clearly immigration was a core issue of debate. It is evocative and provocative, invoking strong reactions on both sides. However, the distribution of the issue’s importance was not even across social media. Our research shows that throughout the referendum Facebook users were significantly

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Press Facebook TwitterFig.9: Twitter, Facebook and press- three different worlds

EU Referendum issue discussion compared between Facebook and Twitter. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

more focused on immigration issues than Twitter users. 13.7% of Facebook users mentioned immigration in their discussions, compared with 5.5% of Twitter posts.

On the surface this finding would tend to reinforce the popular idea that Facebook users are socially/politically conservative, and hence more motivated by immigration than Twitter users. However, our analysis shows that debate about immigration was driven just as much by Remain voters as Leave voters on Facebook.

We believe it is more likely that the difference between Facebook and Twitter is driven more by the different structures of Twitter and Facebook. Whereas Twitter allows public broadcasting - and hence its users refrain from voicingoverly-controversial opinions - the closed Facebook system, which tends to integrate users with others of the same view, tends to encourage rather than constrain strong views. The importance of immigration within Facebook discussions, in particular, seems to demonstrate this.

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On social media, security was never a central issue…The EU referendum came amid a time of heightened terrorism threats in Europe. 2016 and 2015 saw an escalation in violence and terrorist attacks particularly in France and Belgium, and an escalation of media attention on the threat of attack. In particular the Brussels terrorist attacks (22 March 2016), which came in the middle of the long campaign and which killed 35 people, sparked a lively and impassioned debate between Remain campaigners over whose vision for Britain’s future would keep the UK safe. Both the Leave and Remain camps addressed security throughout the campaign and it was widely expected that security would be a core conversation for voters in the referendum.

Our research shows that this was not the case. Only 3.68% of conversations on social media during the campaign focused on security/safety, 5.93% less than immigration, 6.28% less

than trade and 15.28% less than sovereignty.In addition while discussions of security/safety were higher in Remain posts than Leave, neither constituted a major conversation driver during the campaign.

We also observed more dramatic fluctuations in this security/safety conversation than in other issue conversations on social media during the referendum. For example, on Facebook between week 2 and week 3 of the campaign, conversations about security/safety dropped from 7.2% to 1.8% before rebounding to 5.1% in week 3.

Our research shows that the security implications of staying or leaving the EU were less important in the referendum than other economic, immigration and national sovereignty issues. This is perhaps a warning for the US presidential election (2016), where security concerns are being posited as critical to the success of the referendum.

Fig.10: Security/safety broken down by channel over time

‘Security/safety’ in Facebook and Twitter conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

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…but was more of an issue on Facebook than TwitterAs with discussion of immigration on social media our research shows that Facebook users were significantly more likely to discuss the EU Referendum in terms of safety and security than Twitter users. 1.8% of Twitter conversations focused primarily on security/safety, compared with 5.6% of Facebook posts.

This was consistently the case throughout the referendum, only coming close to each other in Week 3 (22 – 29 April) of the campaign when conversation universally dipped due to the lack of any particularly emotive story. Indeed the only notable story that week was that British expats would not be allowed to vote, a decision that triggered widespread discussion of sovereignty rather than a security and safety discussion.

“ The linking of the migration crisis to an increased security threat was a core argument for the Leave campaign which appears to have paid off. Online voters en masse seem to have linked their discussion of immigration with security/safety rather than welfare (which is how the immigration debate could have evolved).”Hugo Winn, Executive Researcher Weber Shandwick

In many ways the security/safety conversation on social media mirrors (if at a lower volume) the immigration debate in its division between Facebook and Twitter. This is likely the result of one key event during the campaign. In early 2016 it emerged that several of the December 2015 Paris terrorist attackers had posed as migrants and crossed over to the island of Lesbos in Greece prior to making their way to Paris. This revelation sparked a debate in the campaign as to whether migration and EU membership inherently undermined British security. Despite Remain’s insistence that Britain, as a non-member of Schengen, was able to control its borders, our research demonstrates that at least online the linking of these narratives by Leave was successful.

However, it is not clear how beneficial the linking of this narrative to immigration was. As the campaign reached its conclusion, critics complained that Leave’s focus on immigration had descended into nastiness and stereotyping, epitomised by the famous UKIP ‘breaking point’ poster which divided voters.

30

Facebook users were more interested in issues of the single market and public spending than TwitterPerhaps surprisingly one of the biggest differences in conversation between Twitter and Facebook users was on the issue of the single market. This core economic issue was significantly more talked about on Facebook (2%) than Twitter (0.4%).

Fig. 11: The Single Market – of interest primarily to Facebook userss

Single Market in Facebook and Twitter conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

1.7%

0.3%0.6%

0.3% 0.4%0.0%

1.4%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1.1%0.8%

2.2%

1.0%

1.8%

0.4%

2.4%

4.2%

6.3%

0.6%1.0%


Twitter Facebook


31

Our results also demonstrate that the issue of public spending (how much more or less money we would have to spend on our public services after Brexit) also varied depending on social media channel. 2.2% of Facebook posts mentioned the issue in the referendum-related posts, compared with 1.4% of Twitter posts. There are exceptions to this rule, for example in week 2 of the campaign (15-21 April) there were 6.2% more Twitter posts mentioning the issue of public spending compared with 2.3% of Facebook posts. Nonetheless the trend here is noticeable and significant.

We observed that Britain’s membership of the single market and the level of public spending after Brexit were synonymous in many conversations, with many voters arguing that pulling out of the EU would enable greater or less public spending domestically. The linking of these issues by the Leave campaign went some way to caveating the central Remain argument that membership of the single market should not be put at risk. Instead our research seems to suggest that Remain’s single market argument became increasingly focused on jobs and investment.

2.3%

6.2%

0.9%

4.1%

1.3%2.1%

4.1% 4.6%

15.7%

1.9%2.7%

13.8%

2.3%

5.8%

14.1%

7.1%

3.5%

7.5%

11.3% 11.4%

3.6%

8.0%


Twitter FacebookFig.12: Public spending – of interest primarily to Facebook users

‘Public Spending’ in Facebook and Twitter conversations during the EU Referendum campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

32

The biggest spike was in relation to climate change in week 10Interestingly one of the largest spikes during the EU referendum conversation was in one of the least engaged and relevant discussions, climate change. This conversation which almost entirely occurred on Twitter was sparked by the call on June 16th by Green Party representative Baroness Jenny Jones, who urged Britons to quit the bloc to save the planet. The scale of the spike is interesting, not only for its lack of resonance on Facebook, but it also seems to have been dominated by a small number of highly motivated commentators.

Fig.24: Baroness Jenny Jones’ support for Leave sparked a huge conversation

Analysis of Climate Change within posts and tweets mentioning the Leave and Remain campaigns. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

0.0%2.3%

0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

28.2%

0.0%0.0%1.3%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Week9 Week10 Week11

Twitter Facebook


33

Campaign“ One thing is instantly revealed from our research: Vote Leave had a livelier, more engaged and better distributed conversation than the Remain campaign online. The Remain conversation was dangerously fragmented and conflicting. By contrast Leave managed, whether deliberately or coincidentally, to coordinate a multi-tiered conversation with sovereignty, immigration and trade at its core.” Colin Byrne, EMEA CEO

Results

3434

The Leave campaign dominated social media conversations…Several analysts have shown that the Leave campaign was, from the outset, set to outpace the Remain campaign on social media. On a superficial level this was clearly the case. On the eve of the referendum Vote Leave (the official Leave campaign organisation) had 532,860 followers on Facebook and its competing Leave campaign Leave.EU had 757,298 followers. In comparison Britain Stronger In, the only major Remain campaign organisation had only 528,686 followers. However citing this figure is superficial and largely meaningless: it does not properly demonstrate support or interest in the campaign.

Our research demonstrates that the Leave campaign dominated social media conversations during the campaign. On social media, 66.8% of posts about the referendum focused on the Leave campaign, whilst the Remain campaign was only mentioned in 19.3% of social media posts.

This finding seems to corroborate other social media analysis, including by social analytics platforms such as Talkwalker8 , which showed a narrow lead for Leave campaign on social media over Remain.

21%16%

22%14%

23%14%

20%15%

23% 23% 22%

60%68%

61% 59%66% 69%

64%72% 72% 69%

76%


Remain LeaveFig.13: The leave campaign dominated social media

How social media users and the press discussed the Leave campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

Rob Stothard / PA Wire/Press Association Images

8 Talkwalker, Social Media Tracker EU Referendum, 2016

“ The Leave campaign’s dominance of conversation on social media demonstrates the mass appeal and passions implicit within the campaign. The Remain campaign never sparked such strong passions at any point during the campaign.” Hugo Winn, Executive Researcher Weber Shandwick

VS


35

…And performed equally well on Twitter and FacebookOur analysis shows that the Leave campaign (unlike the Remain campaign, which was significantly more present on Twitter) had an

even amount of attention on Facebook and Twitter. On average 64% of Leave-related posts took place on Twitter and 70% on Facebook. This is a positive sign for a campaign’s social media engagement strategy and demonstrates a broad appeal among social media users.

But the press focused on RemainInterestingly, and despite accusations from Remain campaigners that the press media had a favourable bias towards Leave,

our research shows that the online press at least demonstrated a favourable bias towards the Remain campaign in their reporting. On average 64% of online press articles focused primarily on the Remain campaign, compared with 46% for Leave.

Fig.14: The Leave campaign performed equally strongly on Twitter and Facebook

How social media users and the press discussed the Leave campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

Fig.15: The press favoured the Remain campaign

Volume of press coverage (primary focus of the article) of the Leave and Remain campaign, Weber Shandwick, 2016

62.33%72.33%

53.00%

45.67%

65.33%

71.67%60.67% 64.00% 61.67%

69.33% 72.00%

57%64%

69% 72% 67%65% 66%

79% 82%

68%

80%

58%44% 52%

47%48%

34%

63%50% 48%

34%28%


Twitter Facebook Press

62.33%72.33%

53.00%

45.67%

65.33%

71.67%60.67% 64.00% 61.67%

69.33% 72.00%

57%64%

69% 72% 67%65% 66%

79% 82%

68%

80%

58%44% 52%

47%48%

34%

63%50% 48%

34%28%


Twitter Facebook Press

29%

68%61% 59%

66% 69%64%

72% 72%69%

76%

58.3%

44.3%

51.9%47.1% 48.0%

34.0%

62.7%

50.0% 48.0%

34.0%28.0%


Remain Leave

29%

68%61% 59%

66% 69%64%

72% 72%69%

76%

58.3%

44.3%

51.9%47.1% 48.0%

34.0%

62.7%

50.0% 48.0%

34.0%28.0%


Remain Leave

36

As the campaign wore on the press focused less on LeaveOur analysis shows that throughout the campaign the output of online media was overwhelmingly focused on Leave. On average 46% of online press articles during the referendum focused primarily on the Leave campaign, compared with 32.7% on the Remain campaign - a 13.3% difference.

Interest in Leave was even more marked in social media conversations. On average 66.8% of social media posts during the campaign were focused on the Leave campaign, whilst only 19.3% on the Remain campaign – a 50.5% difference.

This trend became more noticeable as the campaign progressed, with a concerted effort by the online print media to present a more balanced view of the referendum campaigns in the final three weeks.

“ Our finding that the online press chose to focus more on the Remain campaign than the Leave campaign contrasts with orthodox interpretations during the campaign. It is important to stress that this coverage is not necessarily positive. ‘Project Fear’ as it became labelled drew considerable attention and derision” Hugo Winn, Executive Researcher Weber Shandwick

Fig.16: balance during the final push

How social media users and the press discussed the Leave campaign in the final weeks of the campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

63.5%71.7% 72.0% 68.7%

75.8%

62.7%

50.0% 48.0%

34.0%28.0%

Week7 Week8 Week9 Week10 Week11

SocialMedia Print

63.5%71.7% 72.0% 68.7%

75.8%

62.7%

50.0% 48.0%

34.0%28.0%

Week7 Week8 Week9 Week10 Week11

SocialMedia Print


37

On social media, no single issue dominated conversations about the Remain campaign…Campaigns are most successful when they manage to set and control the public narrative. Most campaigns prefer to keep the message broad in order to attract the most potential voters, and most prefer to tie their campaign message to one central voter issue, usually the economy. Given this, we would expect a well-structured campaign to deliver a multi-tiered conversation with one central issue on top throughout, aligned with the central messaging of the campaign.

This did not happen with the Remain campaign. Rather than one issue dominating, our analysis shows that discussion of the campaign referenced multiple issues of varying impact throughout the 11 weeks. This was far from ideal for the campaign and led to a number of distinct and separate issues which vied for voter attention. Within the social media conversation about the Remain campaign, 20.1% of posts were framed around the issue of sovereignty, slightly lower than the top issue of trade, which garnered 22.8% of conversation on social media. On top of these two core issues a number of second tier themes resonated in Remain conversations. 13.6% of Remain conversations mentioned ‘jobs’, 14% ‘immigration’ and 5% ‘investment’. Our research shows that the difference between most and least mentioned issues in relation to the Remain campaign was very slim throughout the campaign.

Fig.17: Remain conversation was fragmented

Analysis of issues within posts and tweets mentioning the Remain campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Week1

Week2

Week3

Week4

Week5

Week6

Week7

Week8

Week9

Week10

Week11

Trade

Investment

Immigration

Jobs

Sovereignty

Security&Safety

FreedomofMovement

SingleMarket

ClimateChange

Public Spending

Other

38

… But sovereignty dominated Leave conversationsIn striking contrast, the social media conversation about the Leave campaign was more structured and layered. Reflecting the broader social media trend, our research found that the issue of sovereignty particularly resonated within conversations about the Leave campaign. 33.7% of posts and tweets about the campaign mentioned sovereignty - 16.1% higher than ‘immigration’, the second most mentioned issue in relation to the campaign. At its peak in week 6, sovereignty was mentioned in 53.3% of Leave posts.

Other pronounced issues throughout the Leave? campaign included trade 14% which started out as the second most important conversation point in week one with 19.1% share of conversation, before dipping behind immigration as the campaign drew on.

When comparing the distribution of issues within Remain and Leave conversations, it is clear that the Leave campaign created (whether deliberately or coincidentally) a better structured campaign conversation with clear primary, secondary and tertiary issues.

Fig.18: Leave conversation – sovereignty dominates

Analysis of issues within posts and tweets mentioning the Leave campaign. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

Fig.19: The issues of the campaigns on social media

Social media analysis during EU Referendum, 2016

18.6%

33.5%

22.6% 22.5%

26.6%

53.3%

19.1%

27.6%

22.3% 21.3%

28.3%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Week1

Week2

Week3

Week4

Week5

Week6

Week7

Week8

Week9

Week10

Week11

Trade

Investment

Immigration

Jobs

Sovereignty

Security&Safety

FreedomofMovement

SingleMarket

ClimateChange

Public Spending

Other

Linear(Jobs)

18.6%

33.5%

22.6% 22.5%

26.6%

53.3%

19.1%

27.6%

22.3% 21.3%

28.3%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Week1

Week2

Week3

Week4

Week5

Week6

Week7

Week8

Week9

Week10

Week11

Trade

Investment

Immigration

Jobs

Sovereignty

Security&Safety

FreedomofMovement

SingleMarket

ClimateChange

Public Spending

Other

Linear(Jobs)

18.6%

33.5%

22.6% 22.5%

26.6%

53.3%

19.1%

27.6%

22.3% 21.3%

28.3%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Week1

Week2

Week3

Week4

Week5

Week6

Week7

Week8

Week9

Week10

Week11

Trade

Investment

Immigration

Jobs

Sovereignty

Security&Safety

FreedomofMovement

SingleMarket

ClimateChange

Public Spending

Other

Linear(Jobs)

5%

1%

3%

3%

4%

1%

1%

0%

1%

3%

13%

2%

16%

10%

18%

4%

4%

2%

3%

9%

Trade

Investment

Immigration

Jobs

Soverignty

Security/Safety

Freedomofmovement

Singlemarket

Climatechange

Public spending

Leave Remain

18.6%

33.5%

22.6% 22.5%

26.6%

53.3%

19.1%

27.6%

22.3% 21.3%

28.3%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Week1

Week2

Week3

Week4

Week5

Week6

Week7

Week8

Week9

Week10

Week11

Trade

Investment

Immigration

Jobs

Sovereignty

Security&Safety

FreedomofMovement

SingleMarket

ClimateChange

Public Spending

Other

Linear(Jobs)

28.3%


39

On social media immigration was primarily an issue for the Leave campaign…As would be expected, conversations about the Leave campaign were significantly more likely to mention immigration than those which centered on the Remain campaign. The extent of this difference is dramatic. When viewing the social media conversation as a whole, 3.4% of Remain conversations focused primarily on immigration, compared with only 15.6% of Remain conversations.

The difference between the two campaigns underlines just how differently Leave and Remain voters perceived the issue of immigration. The importance of this issue appeared to peak in week 6 of the referendum with 22.8% of all Leave related posts focused on the issue. On June 10th an ORB poll9 found that a third of voters thought mass immigration was a “far more important factor” than the effect on the economy of Brexit.

Fig.20: Immigration – a tale of two campaigns

Analysis of ‘immigration’ within posts and tweets mentioning the Leave and Remain campaigns. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

4.6%

1.8% 2.8% 2.4% 1.8%3.2%

4.4%2.8%

3.9%6.2%

3.0%

11.5% 13.4%13.8%

22.8%

20.5%

12.8%

18.6% 19.8%

11.4%

12.0% 15.3%


Remain Leave

9 ORB, 10 June 2016

40

… As was security and safety…Again linking the issue of immigration to security and safety, we noticed a sustained emphasis online on security discussion in relation to the Leave campaign. However the caveat from before is relevant here: this discussion never really escalated for either campaign on social media. On average only 4.3% of posts that mentioned the Leave campaign also mentioned security and safety issues, while just 1.3% of Remain posts mentioned the issue.

Fig.21: Security and safety – not an issue for Remainers

Analysis of ‘security/safety’ within posts and tweets mentioning the Leave and Remain campaigns. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

2.9%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

2.2%

0.7%

2.0%

0.4% 0.4%

1.3%

3.3%

5.2%4.9%

1.5%

4.5%4.0%

2.5%

4.4%

2.1%

4.3%

8.1%

6.0%


Remain Leave


41

… But investment was never an issue for either campaignThe importance of investment into the UK from multinational companies and foreign investors, as well as the impact of Brexit on future investment were considered a key battleground during the referendum campaign.

However, our analysis shows that the issue never made much of an impact in online discussion about either campaign. By contrast the issue

seems to have peaked very early in the campaign (2.9% for Remain and 6% for Leave in week 1) before dropping to around 1% in subsequent weeks, with a slight pick-up towards the end.

We can only speculate as to why this occurred, but it seems that the economic argument increasingly shifted away from the benefits of investment and towards issues of trade and jobs, and to a lesser extent public spending, as the campaign progressed.

Fig.22: Investment – the big tumble

Analysis of investment within posts and tweets mentioning the Leave and Remain campaigns. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

2.9%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

1.8%

0.0%0.3%

0.0%0.4%

4.5%

3.0%

6%

1% 1%

2% 1%

0%

1%2%

1%

3%

1%


Remain Leave

42

Sovereignty was more important for Leave discussionsIt is important to note that sovereignty as a discussion theme in the referendum was largely the preserve of the Leave campaign. On average 17.7% of all posts about the issue were related to the Leave campaign, while only 4.4% of such posts related to the Remain campaign. This however leaves a large percentage of posts about this key issue (78%) which were not directly related to a campaign.

Fig.23: Sovereignty was focused on the Leave campaign

Analysis of sovereignty within posts and tweets mentioning the Leave and Remain campaigns. Source: Weber Shandwick, 2016

0.7%

9.3% 8.6%

6.2%

4.0% 4.3%

1.7% 2.1% 2.0%

5.2%3.7%

16.1%

19.3%

8.3%

15.2%16.1%

21.6%

15.6%

19.1%

22.8%

19.2%

21.3%


Remain Leave


43

Democracy“ Our research shows a significant disparity between how social media users discussed the Leave and Remain campaigns. Remain conversations were significantly more fact based and issue led than Leave conversations. The eventual success of the Leave campaign perhaps points towards the importance of emotionally driven content.” Hugo Winn, Executive Researcher at Weber Shandwick

Results

4444

The press were far more interested in political strategy than policy and issue discussionIt has long been documented that political events, particularly campaigns, are increasingly shown in the media through a political, rather than an issues based lens. This ‘horse race of ideas’ was first described in the 1950’s and cumulative studies have shown that the media is increasingly obsessed with political strategy, polls and campaign gossip.

The results of our analysis confirm this during the EU Referendum campaign. 52.1% of press articles during the referendum campaign were focused on political strategy rather than specific issues. By comparison only 27.4% of Twitter posts and 23.2% of Facebook posts were focused on political strategy.

40.4%

15.8%17.5%

29.0%

36.3%

29.9%

24.4%

29.9% 30.1%

21.6%26.2%

28.7%

17.9%

25.8%

19.6%24.6%

19.7% 20.3% 20.9%

26.9% 26.9%23.7%

47.5%43.0%

58.5%

64.7%

46.9% 45.1%

66.7%

32.0%

58.0%54.0%

56.3%


Twitter Facebook PressFig. 25: The press focused on political strategy

‘Politics’ versus ‘issues’ on social media and press, Weber Shandwick, 2016


45

The Remain campaign was largely focused on issues…Despite the macro trend in campaigns towards focusing on political strategy over issues, the social media conversation our analysis reveals that the Remain campaign was largely focused on policy issues throughout the campaign. On average 11.9% of social media posts about Remain focused on political strategy, 12.9% on Twitter and 10.9% on Facebook.

This is another clue that the conversation which developed around Remain was based more on the integration of facts and figures rather than overt support or discussion of emotional issues.

Fig. 26: Remain – focused on the issues

Share of total social media posts focused on politics rather than issues. Weber Shandwick, 2016

18.8%

11.7% 12.2%

14.7%

17.0%

8.7%

14.4%

9.8%

5.4%

14.3%15.4%

7.0%

9.5%

16.2%

9.8%

12.3%

17.4%

11.6%

9.0%

6.3%

12.2%

9.0%


Twitter Facebook

46

...Whilst the Leave conversation was more focused on poltical strategyIn sharp contrast to social media posts about the Remain campaign, those about the Leave campaign were significantly more likely to talk about the election in terms of political strategy, polls and gossip. On average 38.2% of social media posts during the referendum focused on political strategy, 37.7% on Twitter and 38.6% on Facebook.

This result confirms many of our previous findings that the Leave campaign was less fact driven and more emotionally based than the Leave campaign.This was a key differentiator between the two campaigns on social media.

Fig. 27: Leave – focused more on political strategy

Share of total social media posts focused on politics rather than issues. Weber Shandwick, 2016.45.8% 43.8%

16.8%

26.4%

39.7%45.0%

39.5%44.7% 45.1%

31.4%36.6%

28.5%

35.0%

54.8%49.1%

30.9% 28.9%34.4% 36.5%

43.2% 42.4% 41.2%


Twitter Facebook


47

Conclusion

4848

An emotional debate in a ‘post truth’ ageIt would be easy to use the results of this report to typecast different social media users. The idea that Twitter users are left wing and Facebook users right wing is now well established in commentary about digital campaigns, but looking closely at our findings we cannot paint this picture.

Although Facebook users were generally more prone than Twitter users to conversations around immigration, this was not at the cost of concrete economic concerns, notably trade, jobs and public spending. If any stereotype could be given to users on the different channels, it is that Facebook users were more likely to be concerned with simpler and more emotive issues - security/safety, immigration and public spending - than more complex economic and social arguments such as jobs, trade and investment. Twitter users showed a higher level of concern for these issues.

Perhaps most interesting is the importance of theoretical and ideologically driven conversation around sovereignty during the referendum. These emotional arguments were prevalent equally on Twitter and Facebook throughout the campaign and dominated voters’ attention.

“ We are living through a period of post-truth politics. As I spoke at 100 impromptu public street meetings last year, standing on top of my Irn-Bru crates, I felt its surge in Scotland’s towns and cities. A belief system grew that cheerfully shot the messenger and relegated opponents’ truths to malignly motivated opinion. We heard a quiet echo of that attitude during the Labour leadership contest. And it will be back again for the EU vote, this time with a patriotic, outsider’s vengeance.” Jim Murphy, Former Scottish Labour Leader, September 2015

The scale to which the issue of sovereignty ended up setting the tone in discussions online points to a revealing attribute of the British social media user: that emotion tends to trump facts online in the modern context.

Throughout the campaign voters vented frustration that they were being sold poor and conflicting ‘facts’, something the commentariat like to attribute to a new ‘post-truth’ age of politics. Our analysis demonstrates that in the face of conflicting facts, voters may have rallied behind more theoretical ideas and values.

The emotional nature of this sovereignty discussion is demonstrated by the escalation of conversation during key ‘intervention’ moments in the campaign. Many social media users reacted angrily and vocally to initiatives that they perceived to be deflecting attention away from issues of sovereignty and democracy, with Mark Carney and President Barack Obama’s interventions sparking the sharpest increase in conversation during the campaign.


49

Re-evaluating the role of passion in referendaAt the outset of the campaign the Remain campaign’s primary strategic idea was to frame the referendum in similar terms to the recent 2015 General Election. During this election the incumbent Conservative party was widely seen to win re-election based on rational economic arguments and reasoning. The view was that the electorate had made an economic cost-benefit decision to vote with security and against risk and uncertainty.

The results of the EU referendum threw this rationalism on its head. Instead it now appears that ideology and passion politics (frequently chiming with nationalism and populism) won the day. Our results demonstrate the power and effect of this messaging on the debate online during the referendum and suggest that voters’ thinking may differ between general elections and first-past-the-post referenda.

The role of passion in politics is often underplayed in political commentary, but it is our belief that above anything else, this sentiment was the deciding factor in this referendum. Chantal Mouffe, a mid-century political scientist, used to argue that “passions” in politics, were famously underestimated and under analysed during election events. “Public spheres”, she argued, “should be places for the expression of dissensus, for bringing to the floor what forces attempt to keep concealed” .

‘Project Fear’ failed to confront sovereignty concerns and build a strong message frameFrom a campaign perspective it is noticeable that the conversation around the Leave campaign was better structured than the Remain campaign. This may have allowed the Leave campaign to quickly target messaging around core issues that it could control.

The unstructured and tangled nature of the Remain campaign conversation demonstrates that the campaign never fully managed to develop clear and succinct messaging which appealed to voters online. Instead they battled across a number of different and often conflicting issues. The so-called ‘Project Fear’ – the critical label given to the Remain campaign – although politically motivated appears to be reflected in the sense that the campaign focused on too many issues without a clear and succinct narrative that voters could cling to and discuss.

By comparison, the Leave campaign’s conversation was structured and ordered in a way that benefited their central campaign message - ‘take control’. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that this central message (sub-structured into three sub-themes: control over sovereignty, public finances and immigration) was in sync with the broader social media conversation.

Fuel the fire or fill the gaps?This report raises serious questions about the purpose of online campaigning. One school of thought is that campaigns should attempt to keep abreast with what issues are motivating social users and provide content that matches their concerns (the fuel the fire approach). Another would be to plug any gaps which do not match the key messages of the campaign (a filling the gaps approach).

Both approaches clearly have their merits. But it is our view that campaigns must not shy away from confronting issues that are not currently being considered by voters. In fact, doing so is essential to maintain control of the narrative.

We also believe the our study demonstrates the importance of strong, simple and emotionally fuelled campaign narratives on social media that cross borders and prompt genuine debate.

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Twitter analysisWeber Shandwick has access to the entire database of tweets which is growing by an estimated 500 million tweets per day through social listening software (Sysomos was used for this analysis). A tracking query using language analysis to identify the tweets that refer to the UK-EU Referendum – in the year prior to the start of the official campaign period which this analysis covers this was 5,285,706 tweets. In total 3,298 Tweets were analysed over the course of 11 weeks. Data from this tracking query was then classified along 17 variables. Each piece of data was coded manually to give it unparalleled accuracy. The data did not include re-tweets and was performed without geo-location targeting, meaning conversation analysed was global on this channel. This was done because only 1% of tweets are geo-tagged by Twitter. Only English tweets were analysed. The tracking query included attached content, photos, videos and audio content within tweets. This meta data is often ignored in Twitter analysis and brings added complexity to our results.

Facebook analysisFacebook is an infamously difficult platform to analyse due to comprehensive privacy barriers and legality of accessing private information. Because of this analysis tends to ignore this critical channel. Weber Shandwick has access to substantive Facebook data through social listening software (Sysomos was again used for this analysis). This data was confined to public areas of Facebook and did not cover user profiles, private pages and wall information which are not available as per legal terms from Facebook. Our software does provide mentions on public posts/status updates on the platform. Anything that is not public in nature is not included. As with Twitter data, data collection on Facebook were analysed attached content, photos, videos and audio content within comments and posts. Only English posts were analysed and Geo-targeting was not used. In total 3,301 Facebook posts were analysed using this methodology over the course of 11 weeks.

Traditional media analysisWeber Shandwick used Dow Jones Factiva software to tap into an unrivalled database of traditional print news. The same tracking query used for social analysis was used and data manually coded. Alongside 4 million of the most influential and heavily trafficked blogs this software also provided us with access to content from 35,000 traditional media sources including major UK newspapers (such as The Times and The Daily Telegraph). As with other pieces of analysis only English language, globally distributed content was analysed. All aspects of each article were coded included images, captions, headline, sub headline and content. In total 901 articles were analysed using this methodology over the course of 11 weeks.

About Big Content Analysis


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Data analysis flow chart for share of conversation (SOC) analysis, 2016

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Conversation gathered Issued coded Share of Convers

ation scores

Statistical Proofing

Fig.6: Data analysis flow chart for share of conversation (SOC) analysis, 2016

Comparative Analysis

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Pureprofile, on behalf of Weber Shandwick, published a ‘Referendum Engagement Index’ based on new public opinion research of 1,000 UK voters. The research involved interviewing voters from 27th May until 3rd June in order to determine the attitudes of the British Public in the run up to the EU referendum. One of the main aims was to measure the different forms of engagement and how these have shaped the voters perception of the referendum during the campaign so far.

About the Channel engagement study

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Documents

Britain’s big conversation - Weber Shandwick UKwebershandwick.co.uk/.../2016/07/Britains-Big-Conversation_FINAL.pdf · Britain’s big conversation By Hugo Winn, Diego Céspedes