15
SOL MELIA INVESTMENT CASE Bright and Breezy! Joao Almeida Marta Calvário Hugo Fontinha David Jacques UC3M Equity Research 1 st May 2008 New York

Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

SOL MELIA INVESTMENT CASE

Bright and Breezy!

Joao Almeida

Marta Calvário

Hugo Fontinha

David Jacques

UC3M Equity Research

1st May 2008           New York

Page 2: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

Sol MeliaCompany Description

• Major international chain in the hotel industry

• Ranking 2nd in Europe and 1st in Spain. 

• Operates Resorts , City  Hotels and Time‐Sharing 

• Hotel business represents 80% of SOL’s EBITDA

Business Portfolio

Time‐SharingSMVC

Hotel BrandsAsset 

Rotation

LuxurySegment Upper

SegmentMidscaleSegment

• Has an active Asset Rotation Plan

• Manages around 80,000 rooms

• Present in more than 30 countries

• Remarkable presence in Spain and LatAm

Page 3: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

Overview

Page 4: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

OVERVIEW

Economy & Hotel Sector Corporate Developments

We think SOL faces challenging times and believe it has compelling qualities to withstand a slowdown in the hotel business cycle.

Page 5: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

Business by Business

Page 6: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

BUSINESS BY BUSINESS

Page 7: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

BUSINESS BY BUSINESS

EUROPE

Page 8: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

BUSINESS BY BUSINESS

34.8%EBITDA08E

22.8% EBITDA08E

Page 9: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

BUSINESS BY BUSINESS

AMERICAS

Page 10: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

25.0% EBITDA08E

11.7% EBITDA08E

34.8%EBITDA08E

22.8% EBITDA08E

BUSINESS BY BUSINESS

5.8% EBITDA08E

Page 11: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

Investment Case

Page 12: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

INVESTMENT CASE

New Organizational Model

Caribbean Prospects

Spain as top tourism destination

Management’s Commitment

Time‐Sharing

Trading at attractive multiples

Shareholding Structure

Condo Hotels

Investment Positives

Cyclical Industry

Economic Slowdown

Exposure to Spain

Real Estate

Credit Squeeze

USD depreciation

Execution & Acquisition Risks

Leveraging Risk

Investment Negatives

Page 13: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

Valuation & Recommendation

Page 14: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION

Valuation

Why not NNAV?

Our approach

YE08 Price Target: € 14.00

Recommendation

Industry Average

SOL

9.1x

6.9x

16.2x

10.3x

EV/EBITDA 08

P/E 08

BUYClosing Price 25‐04‐2008

Page 15: Bright and Breezy! - CFA Institute Files...VALUATION & RECOMMENDATION Valuation Why not NNAV? Our approach YE08 Price Target: € 14.00 Recommendation Industry Average SOL 9.1x 6.9x

Q&A