July 2020

Briefing A Wales Transport Policy fit for the Climate Emergency Ian Taylor and Lynn Sloman, Transport for Quality of Life

Summary

This paper is written by Transport for Quality of Life and endorsed by Friends of the Earth.

It argues that Welsh policymakers need to think afresh about transport policies for the

climate emergency. Technological changes are necessary but not enough to achieve the

large, rapid reduction in carbon emissions we need. Climate scientists are warning that we

also have to make substantial changes to our travel behaviour, driving less and flying less.

And we have left it so late that steady incremental changes to our travel will not be enough.

In the Welsh policy context, it is clear that achieving the wellbeing goals enshrined in the

Wellbeing of Future Generations Act (2015)1 cannot be achieved without tackling transport

as the rogue sector that is performing worst in reducing climate damaging emissions.

Most transport policy experts are unaware of the degree of urgency that climate scientists

are trying to communicate. Friends of the Earth therefore commissioned eight in-depth

papers (available here) to outline the immediate practical actions that must form the core of

our strategy to deliver transport carbon reductions for a safe planet. This paper for Friends

of the Earth Cymru is based on and builds on that work, to provide an overview and

recommendations specific to Wales. It seeks to address the particular opportunities and

challenges for Wales, in anticipation of the planned introduction of a new Wales Transport

Strategy during 2020.

Friends of the Earth Cymru • 33 Castle Arcade Balcony, Cardiff, CF10 1BY • Tel 02920 229577 • Website

www.foe.cymrufriendsoftheearth.uk

Transport for Quality of Life Limited • Bwlch Y Maen, Cwm Einion, Machynlleth SY20 8TD • Email:

info@transportforqualityoflife.com • Website: www.transportforqualityoflife.com

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1. The scale of the challenge

Transport is Wales’ worst performing sector for climate change. Its 4.5% reduction in

emissions since 1990 is much less than the other sectors of the Welsh economy that are net

emitters, and its share of emissions has risen over that time from 12% to 16% (including

Wales’s share of international aviation and shipping). Every other sector of the Welsh

economy has significantly cut carbon, but transport is the ‘rogue’ sector, continuing with

many types of activity that make things worse.

Wales greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 2017 (incl. international aviation and shipping)

Source: Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory 1990-2017 Issue 1.1 Wales by Source2; including Wales’ share of

international aviation and shipping.

A policy prescription for slow, steady carbon reduction that might have been sufficient 25

years ago is no longer fit for purpose. Because we have left it so late to tackle carbon

emissions from transport, we now have to take urgent action. Climate scientists are warning

that the carbon targets set by the Committee on Climate Change are too lax, and that we

need to reach ‘net zero’ emissions much sooner3,4. But there is an almost total policy

disconnect between the advice of these climate scientists and the thinking of the transport

profession, which is working on the relatively comfortable assumption that we have until

2050 to get transport carbon emissions down to zero.

There has been much focus on electrifying the vehicle fleet, with Welsh Government aiming

for 60% of new car sales in Wales to be ultra-low emissions by 20305. But even if all new car

sales are electric by 2030, it will still be necessary for car mileage to be at least 20% lower in

2030 than now (and possibly more than this), in order for our emissions not to exceed a fair

carbon budget (More than electric cars).

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The carbon arithmetic is inescapable. It means that we must instigate a rapid transformation

of our transport system to reduce vehicle use, as well as achieving a faster transition from

petrol and diesel to electric vehicles and significantly cutting aviation emissions.

Rapid action to reduce vehicle use will only be fair and command public consent if it takes

place in parallel with big changes to our transport system to give people decent, clean and

affordable ways of travelling to work, education and services, by foot, bike or low-carbon

public transport. So in order to be able to meet our obligation to act on climate change, we

need to recognise a basic right for everyone to be able to live decently without having to

own or drive a car. A transport system for a zero-carbon future must therefore be:

Universal: available to everyone

Comprehensive: the best possible service for all areas, within available resources

Affordable: low-cost, and free for essential local travel

Green: consistent with our obligation to cut carbon emissions to zero in line with the

Paris Agreement and to minimise other environmental impacts.

This paper explores how to change our transport system to meet these principles in Wales,

how to pay for it, and how to create the right governance to deliver it. It highlights a small

number of radical actions that would be transformative, and that could be implemented

alongside the many other transport policies, actions and schemes that we already know to

be good.

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2. Universal and comprehensive public transport for Wales

The universal, comprehensive public transport that we must now create needs to be like the

public transport networks in the city-regions of Munich, Vienna and Zurich. In these areas

(which are 10-30 times bigger than the built-up areas of their main cities, and extend to

surrounding towns and villages), public transport functions as a single system. Buses, trams

and underground and suburban trains are coordinated by public transport governing bodies

or Verkehrsverbünde (VV) to provide “one network, one timetable, one ticket”

(Transforming public transport).

Levels of public transport use in the VVs are strikingly higher (3-4 times the number of trips)

than in comparable areas of Wales and England, as shown in the graph below. It can be

estimated that, if similar levels of public transport use to those in Munich, Vienna and Zurich

city-regions were to be achieved in these Welsh and English urban areas, then car mileage in

those areas would be cut by over 9% 6. This would get us a significant way towards meeting

the minimum reduction in car mileage of 20% that is needed to tackle climate change.

Annual per capita public transport trips in six continental Verkehrsverbünde and equivalent parts of Wales and England

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To have public transport systems as good as these city-regions, we will need better

transport governance, with all services regulated and operated under the control of a

‘guiding mind’, as is the norm in Europe. This will only be made possible by changing the

structure of the railway so that it is a single entity operating under public control, in the

public interest, and with an objective to act in such a way as to reduce carbon emissions

from transport to the greatest extent possible. It is difficult to see how this can be done

without bringing Britain’s entire rail network back into national public ownership7. However,

even without that, it can be noted that the Welsh Government’s control of the Wales and

Borders franchise does not extend to having a significant say over the longer-distance cross-

border franchises, nor to Network Rail’s development of Welsh rail infrastructure. The

Welsh Government should seek to use the Williams Review discussions that have resulted

from the professional and political consensus that franchising has failed to, firstly, make the

case for much better (vertically) integrated alignment of all railway structures with Wales as

an area of devolved public transport governance, and, secondly, to push for more

substantive control of all rail services and rail infrastructure in Wales. There will always need

to be a Britain-wide geographical (horizontal) integration of railway, so a balance is required

between devolved and central authorities, but Wales could and should have sufficient

powers to properly plan, invest in and develop the railway in Wales so as to integrate it with

all other modes of public transport.

It will also be necessary for all local bus and tram services to be brought under the full

control of Welsh local authorities or groups of local authorities. We will then be able to set

service standards, so people know what quality and frequency of public transport they are

entitled to. We will also be able to plan an integrated national and local public transport

timetable (what the Swiss call a ‘Taktfahrplan’, or clock-face timetable), ensuring that all

trains and buses connect to form a seamless network8.

For example, the Zurich VV (which covers a city-region of 1.3 million people, including the

city of Zurich, town of Winterthur and smaller towns, suburbs and rural areas) has service

levels enshrined in law, described in the box overleaf, which enable convenient travel

between any two places bigger than a small village. The following box shows how the

Taktfahrplan concept could be applied to the Cambrian line in central Wales.

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Public transport service standards in Zurich canton

The public transport coordinating body in the canton of Zurich has the following service

standards, which are enshrined in law:

Settlements >300 people – hourly service

Corridors where multiple settlements give strong demand – service every 30 minutes

Large dense settlements – services at least every 15 minutes

Services run 6am to midnight, seven days a week

Buses and trains connect

Services repeat hourly at regular intervals on a ‘clock-face timetable’

For example, the small village of Berg am Irchel (population 564, pictured) has two buses

per hour to stations on the nearest train line, where there is a 3 minute connection with a

train to Winterthur. The whole journey takes about 30 minutes. Services run from before

6am until the last bus at 11.40pm, and are every day of the week including Sundays.

© 2019 Google

Zurich Winterthur

Berg am Irchel

ZURICH CANTON

SWITZERLAND

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Cambrian Line and feeder bus network as example of possibilities achievable with

guaranteed service standards coupled with Taktfahrplan timetabling

Llanidloes pop. 2900 ½-hourly bus, vs c. 2-hourly at present

Llanfair C. pop. 1100 1-hourly bus, vs 2-daily at present

Talybont pop. 700 1-hourly bus as at present but connects with trains.

Corris pop. 700 ½-hourly bus, vs 1-2 hour spacing at present

Dolgellau pop. 2700 ½-hourly bus, vs 1-2 hour spacing at present

Montgomery pop. 1000 1-hourly bus, vs c. 2-hourly at present

Note: Buses run from early morning until late evening and all weekend cf zero services at those times or on Sundays at present

As a result of increased support from the Welsh Government, the Cambrian Line

now has a train in each direction most hours of the day, most days of the week.

Under Swiss-style timetabling and rural public transport service standards many

places that lack a train service would be connected to the Cambrian Line with

buses timed to connect with all the rail services – i.e. one or two buses per hour to

meet trains travelling both directions (a single hourly bus can serve stations at

Welshpool, which is very close to the crossing points of ‘up’ and ‘down’ trains, and

Aberystwyth, where the train turns around). Buses would all arrive before trains

and would wait at the stations and depart after trains have departed, so that both

outgoing and incoming passengers are catered for.

There would be accompanying redesign of station approaches to allow ‘cheek-to-

cheek’ bus-train transfer, as illustrated with an image from a Verkehrsverbund in

Austria.

Note: only six towns and villages are shown but many others would also receive

high quality bus-to-rail connections.

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3. Universal and comprehensive active travel for Wales

We will need to transform our streets so that everyone feels safe walking and cycling, and

so cycling is an option for all of us, not just the minority who are young, fit and brave.

This will require rapid construction of networks of segregated cycleways in all urban areas

(Segregated cycleways and e-bikes). We can learn from Seville, which built 120km of

segregated cycle paths in just four years, achieving a walking and cycling mode share

comparable with Berlin, Munich and Hamburg in a city that had been considered ‘too hot to

cycle’.

We can also learn from the Capital Region of Denmark, which is building a network of nearly

750km of long-distance Cycle Superhighways, radiating up to 40km from Copenhagen. We

need a similar Strategic Cycleways Programme in Wales, building continuous segregated

cycle and pedestrian paths alongside all single carriageway main roads for 15km either side

of every significant settlement (removing road capacity where necessary). Our aim should

be to make all main road cycling corridors as good as the best Danish main road cycle

provision within five years. A key design criterion in Denmark is to install bridges and

underpasses so that people on bikes and electric bikes do not have to stop for vehicle traffic

and can complete their journeys in times that are attractive relative to other modes.

We estimate that to equip a Welsh town that is an employment centre at the convergence

of four major roads with parallel cycle routes extending 15km in all directions would cost

around £24m9. The many engineers currently employed in Wales on building major road

schemes could be re-deployed to deliver this programme.

Electric bikes (‘e-bikes’, which are electrically assisted but that do require pedalling) have

great potential to reduce car mileage. Around half of e-bike trips replace trips that would

otherwise be made by car. E-bikes are used for longer journeys than conventional bikes, and

they have broader appeal, including to older people, women and those who are less active,

as well as to the young, men and the physically active. Across Europe, sales of e-bikes are far

higher than those of all hybrid and battery-electric cars and vans combined. E-bikes make up

10-30% of all bike sales in Austria, Belgium, Italy, France, Germany, the Netherlands and

Sweden – but less than 3% of bike sales in the UK10. A main reason for the greater popularity

of e-bikes in continental Europe is that their governments have offered grants to incentivise

purchase of e-bikes. We should do the same.

It is sometimes assumed that walking and cycling have only a small role to play in reducing

carbon emissions. We think this is incorrect, and the potential for active travel to substitute

for car mileage and thus carbon emissions is in fact large. Modelling by the Propensity to

Cycle Tool11 suggests that, if e-bikes were widely available and we had a similar cycling

infrastructure and culture to the Dutch, around 30% of commuters would cycle to work

across many towns and cities in Wales, including Aberystwyth, Cardiff, Newport and

Wrexham. The comparison with the Netherlands is not as big a leap as some people might

assume since the propensity for cycling tool does factor in Welsh hilliness. It is also relevant

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to recall that the Dutch cycling culture did not always exist – their cycling infrastructure and

cycling habit have been built up since the 1970s, at which time the Netherlands had

assumed a car-based future, become car dominated, and reduced cycling to a marginal

activity.

In addition to this switch in personal travel, we also estimate that, if e-cargo bikes took over

from delivery and service vehicles for suitable trips, then up to 7.5% of all traffic mileage in

urban areas could be removed12.

Images from Propensity for Cycling Tool showing areas in Aberystwyth, Cardiff and Newport

predicted to achieve 30%+ of journeys to work by cycling in their e-bike scenario

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Leaflet | Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, CC-BY-SA, Imagery © Mapbox. Lower image from: Cycle Superhighways, Capital Region of Denmark. Credit for upper image: Google maps, map data 2020

Denmark Capital Region Cycle Superhighway Network – Applied to south Wales

Copenhagen is working with neighbouring municipalities to extend their cycle network for many miles beyond the main urban area. Combined with the rise in ownership of e-bikes, this is enabling people to cycle for longer journeys, with substantial carbon savings compared to driving. On the Danish Cycle Superhighway routes that have been completed so far, 25% of users previously drove. The average bike commute distance on one Cycle Superhighway route, the Farumruten is 15km.

When the Copenhagen network is projected onto south Wales, centred on Cardiff (unaltered from Denmark, so not as would be actually planned for Welsh valleys and roads), it extends far beyond Newport to the distance of Chepstow, and reaches up the Valleys to Abergavenny, Ebbw Vale and Merthyr Tydfil. It is also evident from this superpositioned image that a network on this scale purposely designed for the south Wales geography would extend beyond Bridgend and reach Port Talbot.

Key: Red lines show routes into Copenhagen that are already completed; black solid lines show routes that are planned and have funding; black dotted lines show routes that are planned but not yet funded. The original image of the cycle route network as it applies to Copenhagen region is provided in Appendix 1.

Farumruten

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4. An Eco Levy for driving in Welsh urban areas – balanced by free local

public transport

A mileage-based Eco Levy for driving in Welsh towns and cities would encourage people to

switch to greener, healthier modes of transport for some trips (An Eco Levy for driving).

Combining it with free local public transport (Transforming public transport) could make it a

politically sellable policy, so that it becomes the norm wherever a good non-car option

exists.

Local authorities in Wales (and throughout the UK) have had powers to charge for road use

for nearly 20 years. To its credit, Cardiff has signalled that it plans to use them, and it is also

encouraging that the Welsh Government has announced13 an Independent Review to report

later this year on options for Wales.

So far, the only substantial UK road pricing scheme is in central London, although the

London Ultra-Low Emission Zone will be extended to a much larger area in 2021. Road

pricing is also used in Singapore, Stockholm, Gothenburg and Milan. Experience from these

cities shows that quite modest charges can stimulate significant change: it is the fact of

having to pay at all that makes a proportion of people reassess their options. For most

people, the additional cost of an Eco Levy could be quite small: in Stockholm, 75% of the

congestion charges paid by private vehicles come from just over 5% of Stockholm County’s

residents.

Traffic volumes in the ‘charged’ areas of these cities have fallen significantly, with cuts in

traffic ranging from 9% (within the charging zone in Gothenburg) to 47% (number of

vehicles entering Milan city centre). Effects on car driving are usually larger than the effects

on all traffic: for example, in London, the number of cars entering the congestion charging

zone fell by 36% by 2007, compared to 13% for vans and 5% for lorries.

The main people to benefit from an Eco Levy would be young people, older people, those on

a low income and women, all of whom are bigger users of public transport. Experience in

places that have implemented a road user charge is that once residents see how it improves

their city, there is net support. In London, the proportion of residents supporting or

opposing the congestion charge was evenly balanced shortly before its introduction; but

afterwards, over two-thirds of Londoners felt they had gained from the congestion charge

or it made no difference to them, whereas only a quarter felt they were worse off. This

result was consistent across central, inner and outer London.

So far, no city has tried the combination of an Eco Levy and free public transport, but this is

the kind of transformative policy that is now needed.

Although the idea of free local public transport for all might sound radical and unaffordable,

local public transport is already fare-free in more than 100 towns across the world

(Transforming public transport). Dunkerque, a town of 200,000 people in northern France,

made its buses free in autumn 2018, and at the same time increased bus frequencies on the

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busiest routes to every 10 minutes and installed bus ‘express corridors’. One year on, bus

trips are up 85%14. Nearly half of new bus users previously drove, one in ten new bus users

have sold their second car, and there is anecdotal evidence that the free bus network is

leading young people to postpone getting a driving licence. The free buses are especially

important to people for whom money was tight, and are seen as a game-changer for a

working-class town that was culturally very attached to the car. Other French cities are now

following Dunkerque’s lead, including Calais in December 2019.

Free local bus services wouldn’t be feasible or affordable under the current deregulated

privatised regime in Wales. However, the big changes to governance and funding discussed

elsewhere in this paper would make it possible: re-regulation, so that local authorities could

plan their bus network as a whole; powers to establish municipal bus companies, so that all

profits were reinvested; and powers to raise funds from local taxation (see Section 6).

Public money already accounts for over 40% of bus operator revenues15. Additional funding

would be needed for more bus services, to cater for the increase in demand, and local

authorities that operate trams would lose some fare income from these due to abstraction

if fares continued to be charged. But it would be entirely achievable for a public transport

payroll levy that generated income for Wales at the same level, proportionately, as

Versement Transport does for France (VT raises £5 billion per year) to support free bus

services. In fact there would be very substantial resources left over for investment in

improving bus services, or building tram networks16. Even more affordable would be

extending free public transport from older people to other groups – like young people, to

encourage them to make using public transport a habit rather than learning to drive and

becoming car-dependent.

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5. Planning land-use in Wales for less car use

Evidence from across the world shows that high levels of walking, cycling and public

transport only occur if new development is concentrated in urban areas, and if settlements

are compact, dense, and with a diversity of land uses (Planning for less car use). The most

important factor is location: central locations generate less car travel and have 2-3 times

lower transport carbon emissions than even the best-designed development in a remote

location.

To stop car-dependent urban sprawl in its tracks, virtually all new development must be on

brownfield land in existing urban areas. Developments should only go ahead in places that

already have high-quality public transport, or where excellent new public transport

infrastructure (such as tram lines or new rail stations) will be provided, in which cases, the

new transport provision must be in place and fully operational before the development is

occupied, so that incoming residents never get into the habit of relying on a car. New

housing should be built at densities of at least 100 dwellings per hectare (and higher in

urban centres), to create an urban form that is highly walkable and cycleable. This density

can be achieved whilst providing a high quality urban realm with open green spaces. The

amount of space allocated to car parking should be reduced, as in an exemplar development

Car-free development in Leeds city centre

The Climate Innovation District in Leeds is a high-density (>100 dph) development of 800 low-rise (3-5 storey), low-carbon homes in the city centre, a short walk/cycle ride from the train station. These are the first houses to be built in Leeds City Centre in over 90 years, and the car-free design, based on European models, is innovative for the UK outside London. It is designed as a car-free environment that encourages walking, cycling and play, focussed around parks and shared gardens. No roads break up the landscape and children will be able to walk to the nearby school without crossing any busy roads. It has underground, centralised car-parking with spaces allocated for a car club. Although required to provide a minimum number of parking spaces the developer CITU do not expect them all to be used. They have built a pedestrian/cycling bridge which links the north and south sides of the city and links to the riverside cycle path.

© CITU

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in Leeds (see box on previous page), allowing for environmental improvements and more

productive uses of the space freed up, as well as promoting less car use.

There should be no low density development in rural areas or on the edge of towns. This

approach is entirely commensurate with the pressing need for affordable homes in rural

Wales to give young people growing up in those areas the chance to remain locally near

family and friends and to continue to support their community and language. Even in rural

areas, the great majority of the population does not live in tiny hamlets but lives in more

substantial settlements, many of them long-standing local centres such as the market

towns. The cores of these older settlements have traditionally been built very compactly, to

densities that make them highly walkable. The multiple problem that has arisen in many

areas is that: (i) where these settlements have seen new development, much of it has been

far from the centre of the town; (ii) the new development has been built to expanded car-

based plans rather than compact walkable-cyclable plans; (iii) many of the houses built have

been large detached homes rather than affordable homes; (iv) there has been development

completely away from these local centres where people are too far from shops and facilities

to walk and cycle, and where it is very much harder to provide public transport provision, let

alone public transport provision of high quality and frequency. For its local people, rural

Wales needs genuinely affordable, compact homes built close to the existing rural centres

that provide shops, schools, jobs and facilities, so they get around by walking, cycling or

taking public transport, for which it is feasible to undertake a major programme of

improvements for services within, to, and between these rural centres. This approach to

planning and transport is not just a plan for climate stabilisation – it is what is needed to

achieve social equity, strong communities, good health and a high quality of life. Car-based

development in remote locations is bad for all of these things and should be prevented.

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6. How can we pay for what Wales needs?

In the next 10 years we must invest at an unprecedented rate in new tram networks, rail

electrification, bus priority networks and green electric buses, cycleways and healthy streets

for walking. Substantial ongoing revenue funding will be required to run free local public

transport services and to improve those services.

This cost can be offset by the major expenditure on road schemes, which can and should be

reallocated in its entirety (Transforming transport funding to meet our climate targets).

Over the past five years, capital spending by public bodies in Wales on local and national

roads has outweighed all other transport capital spending (see first chart on following

page)17. Moreover, the Welsh Government’s ‘pipeline’ of transport infrastructure project

expenditure for the next five years shows an even worse bias towards road building (see

second chart on following page)18.

The project list from the National Transport Finance Plan for the next 5 years is headed with

exactly the right words: “Decarbonisation is at the heart of decision making for

infrastructure developments”. However, the overwhelming emphasis on road building

within the actual list makes it seem that these fine words are present only for purposes of

irony or greenwash. The evidence of this data is that there is still a substantial amount of

road building being publicly funded in Wales. This will increase traffic and carbon emissions

and is completely counter to the necessary spending priority required to tackle the Climate

Emergency recognised by the Senedd and Welsh Government.

Substituting ‘bad’ transport investment for ‘good’ investment will be a double win for

Wales, switching £100s of millions per year from building roads that make carbon emissions

worse, to tram lines, bus priority networks, cycleways and healthy streets for walking.

There is also potential for much more funding for clean, green, affordable transport to be

raised at the devolved level by the Welsh Government and at local authority level. In other

countries devolved authorities have far greater powers to raise money locally for

sustainable transport investment.

The renaissance of trams in France has been funded by local payroll levies on

employers (the ‘Versement Transport’).

Many cities (e.g. Paris) and countries (e.g. Switzerland) use a visitor lodging tax to

pay for better sustainable transport.

Stockholm is funding its metro extension from a charge on cars entering the city.

There is further potential outside cities to raise more money by applying an Eco Levy

to cars and vans on main roads and to apply a distance-based HGV charge (as used in

Germany and other European countries).

Local authorities in Germany and the Netherlands capture a far greater proportion of

land value uplift that results from them granting planning permission for major

developments, which they then use to spend on transport infrastructure.

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The Welsh Government should lobby the Westminster government for all of these fund-

raising powers where they do not have them. For those already available, the Welsh

Government should use them at national level and make them available for Welsh local

authorities to use where local authority level is the most appropriate level for application.

Of the various funding sources listed above as bullet points, we believe that existing Welsh

Government devolved powers would allow implementation of a visitor lodging tax and

various forms of vehicle road use charging. We are not aware of any powers through which

the Welsh Government could enact a French-style payroll levy on employers, so that

appears to require allocation of powers to Wales from the Westminster government.

Planning is fully devolved to Wales, so there may be scope within existing powers for Welsh

Government to alter the land compensation laws. However, there may be a requirement for

Westminster Government action to facilitate this, since devolution of planning to Wales

post-dated the 1961 Land Compensation Act that prevents public authorities capturing land

value uplift by buying land at ‘existing use’ value (public authorities buying land presently

cannot capture the uplift in value from their investment in it, because they must pay land

owners excessive prices based on the ‘hope value’ of ‘prospective planning permission’,

calcuated according to what the land value will become after the public authority has

allowed planning permission and invested in the site and transport infrastructure to serve

it).

These funding sources could provide £100s of millions per year for Wales. They show that

the key issue that needs to be fixed, other than redirecting road building expenditure, is to

put in place mechanisms that secure contributions from all those who will benefit from

better public transport and active travel infrastructure even if they are not direct users,

including the many businesses and individuals that reap benefits.

Employers benefit, because good transport enables their staff to travel to work, and

increases the catchment area from which they can recruit employees: a public

transport payroll levy would be a fair way for them to contribute.

Tourists benefit, because good transport enables them to explore the city or

countryside they are visiting: a visitor lodging levy could capture this.

Land and property owners benefit, because transport improvements increase the

value of their asset: changes to land compensation law, and better capture of

property value uplift due to transport improvements, would be win-win.

Car-users benefit, because good transport reduces congestion, and because most

drivers would prefer to swap their cars for public transport if services were better: a

distance-based Eco Levy for driving in urban areas would provide them with decent

public transport and a real choice.

If all beneficiaries make a contribution to the costs, it will become possible to design

ambitious transport investment packages that make everyone better off.

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7. Powerful transport governance in Wales to steer the right course

To make the right decisions, and deliver the massive change in our transport system that is

required, we will need clear and sure-footed governance.

Cutting carbon to address the Climate Emergency must become the Welsh Government’s

top priority for transport.

Wales’s national carbon reduction budgets should be translated into binding targets and

carbon budgets for the transport sector, with carbon budgets for Transport for Wales and

local authorities, and mechanisms to monitor and enforce progress.

The 5-year carbon budgeting periods established for Wales are an excellent start, but given

the urgency of the Climate Emergency, these need to be translated into annual carbon

targets and budgets, so that progress can be strictly monitored and policies and

implementation amended where necessary.

All Welsh national and local transport strategies and plans should demonstrate that their

carbon impacts are consistent with the carbon targets and carbon budgets.

Until Wales is on track to reduce emissions in line with the agreed national carbon reduction

pathway, the method for appraising transport projects should be replaced by a ‘climate

emergency appraisal method’, which prioritises projects primarily according to their cost-

effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions, and only secondarily according to their other

benefits. Every major decision will then take account of the carbon budget as well as the

financial budget.

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8. The overall transport policy package

Logic map for Wales decision-makers’ transport response to the Climate Emergency

Climate Emer ency as foundation of Wales Trans ort trate y

Carbon budgets cascade to Transport for Wales, local authorities, all other relevant bodies

Wales Transport Strategy sets annual carbon budgets

Spending on transport and land-use planning reassessed against carbon criteria

Welsh Government recognises a Universal Basic Right of access to high quality public

transport and active travel that enables everyone to live well without a car

Welsh Government recognises that transformation to a comprehensive and

seamless public transport system is incompatible with unfettered competition

and market forces and requires a high degree of regulation and increased public

investment and ownership

Welsh Government legislates to enable public transport regulation and public ownership nationally and municipally

Swiss-style standards established across Wales to provide real options for public

transport travel to all places according to their size

Eco Levies established in urban areas of Wales to deter private vehicle use, alongside

initiation of fare-free and much improved public transport

Welsh Government announces plan to move to a Swiss-style Wales-wide timetable covering all modes of public transport

thereby hugely increasing the ‘reach’ of the railway

Welsh Government legislates using its

existing powers to obtain income to transform public transport and

active travel infrastructure, including a

Wales-wide visitor lodging tax

Welsh Government lobbies UK Government for powers

to raise income to transform public transport

and active travel infrastructure, including a French-style Wales-wide

payroll levy on employers over 10 employees

New development only allowed in locations

with excellent public

transport

Road building expertise

redeployed to build cycleways parallelling main roads to 15km

from every settlement

Massive programme of transformative investment in public transport and active travel across all of Wales

Road building spend diverted to

sustainable modes except

where road capacity

needs increasing for sustainable

modes

C-budgets £-budgets

Regulation Standards Incentives

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A logic map laying out the major actions that the Welsh Government could take to start

reducing transport carbon emissions on the scale that climate scientists advise is provided in

the box. Together these form a logically-linked package of decisions that enhance each

other.

In summary, the six big actions proposed in this briefing paper are these:

1. Make carbon reduction the Welsh Government’s to riority for trans ort. This

means adopting a ‘whole transport sector’ carbon budget (including international

aviation and shipping) and translating the national target into subsidiary targets for

all government departments, regional and local bodies.

2. Bring spending budgets into line with this climate priority and carbon budgets.

This means transferring money presently spent on climate ‘bads’ into climate

‘goods’, and in particular shifting all current spending on road-building to invest in

sustainable local transport, whilst bringing in other national and local sources of

funding for sustainable transport, including a public transport payroll levy.

3. Ensure planning policy supports carbon budgets. This means putting in place strict

rules that all new development of a significant scale must only be in locations that

are served by excellent public transport.

4. Redeploy engineers from road building to climate-positive road redesign that

propels modal shift to sustainable transport. This means, amongst other things,

putting this engineering capacity to use building a strategic cycleway network

alongside or parallelling all main roads, to 15km either side of every settlement;

redesigning all urban main roads to give safe segregated space to cyclists and to give

buses priority so they can speed past traffic congestion and be more time-efficient

than private vehicle use; wholesale remodelling of minor and residential urban

roads to introduce modal filters that give safe direct routes to people on bikes and

people walking whilst deterring rat-running and vehicle use for short trips.

5. Change the entire approach to governance of rail and buses in Wales so that it can

provide viable travel options that match up to the Climate Emergency. This means

regulating the entire system so that Welsh Government can recognise the principle

of a Universal Basic Right to excellent public transport, can set according standards

for public transport frequencies based on settlement size, and can adopt a Swiss-

style integrated national and local public transport timetable, with buses and trains

fully under public control to ensure they are run in the public interest, and with

increased public ownership wherever necessary to achieve that most efficiently.

6. Back up the massively increased investment in sustainable transport with

incentives for modal shift from private vehicles that maximise the effectiveness of

that investment. This means bringing in an Eco Levy for driving in urban areas, and

balancing this by making local public transport fare-free.

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Assessment of current Welsh Government policies against these six big recommendations

1. Makin carbon reduction the Welsh Government’s to riority for trans ort

We applaud the Welsh Government for the legally binding foundation for carbon reduction

in the Environment Wales Act (2016) and for producing a low carbon delivery plan19.

It is very good that the low carbon delivery plan recognises that electric vehicles do not offer

a technological ‘silver bullet’ that will sufficiently reduce emissions and accordingly

recognises a crucial need to achieve demand management of private vehicles and modal

shift to more sustainable transport: ‘We will encourage a shift from an over reliance on the

private car to more sustainable transport modes... This shift has a key role to play in

emissions reduction in the near-term’.

The Welsh Government is to be commended in including Wales’s share of international

aviation and shipping in its carbon budgeting approach.

It is commendable that the Welsh Government has indicated it will use regulations to

amend the present target of emissions reduction of 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 to a

target of 95% reduction by 2050 and net zero by the same date20. However, this remains

slower than many climate scientists believe is necessary, and Friends of the Earth believe

net zero must be achieved by 2045 or earlier.

The low carbon delivery plan does not say the transport sector will have to meet a sectoral

target that is on the same level as other sectors. Nor does it indicate how other key bodies

for transport governance, such as local authorities and Transport for Wales will be required

to meet carbon budgets and targets to reduce them. Whilst it is logical that the Environment

Wales Act (2016) put primary responsibility on ministers, Wales does also need sectoral

targets, and sub-sectoral targets. For the transport sector in particular, it must be clear that

it has to achieve reductions as big as other sectors, rather than continuing to be allowed to

‘go rogue’.

The low carbon delivery plan misses out many vital specific actions. It does not consider

reduction of speed limits on main roads. It does not commit to stop road building. It does

not commit to stop airport expansion or to oppose any reduction in Air Passenger Duty. It

does not commit to stop development where there is not excellent public transport. It does

not offer incentives for e-bike purchase or commit to an affordable e-bike scheme21. It does

not mention freight transport and the potential to tackle the rapid unsustainable growth in

van traffic with e-cargo bikes. It does not commit to any disincentives to driving, such as

road user charging or parking levies. It does not look to demand powers to either raise more

money for sustainable transport or to tax climate ‘bads’, such as applying charges to more

polluting vehicles. It does not commit to an integrated rail-bus timetable. It does not commit

to sufficiently powerful bus re-regulation and Wales-wide system coordination rather than

weak ‘partnerships’. It does not commit to any strategy to reduce the cost of public

transport to make it competitive with car use.

It is completely against climate objectives for the Welsh Government to invest in Wales’s

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airport infrastructure and to subsidise internal flights. It should disinvest in Cardiff airport

and remove support for flights between north and south Wales (and any other flights).

Further comments

The low carbon delivery plan’s approach to transport will not come close to doing what is

required to tackle the Climate Emergency. It will be essential that the forthcoming Wales

Transport Strategy is founded on quickly achieving a zero carbon transport system, including

rapid changes to shift travel from private cars to sustainable modes.

Like the Welsh Government, the Scottish Government will produce a new Transport Strategy

during 2020. The Infrastructure Commission for Scotland’s recent recommendations for the

Transport Strategy22 are highly relevant to Wales and are reproduced in Appendix 2.

2. Bringing spending budgets into line with carbon budgets.

The First Minister deserves considerable credit for the bold decision early in his premiership

to reject an additional arm of M4 motorway across the Gwent Levels. This project would

have increased traffic and emissions (on top of immense local ecological damage) and the

estimated expenditure of £1.4 to £2 billion can now be turned to building sustainable

transport alternatives23.

It is laudable that the Welsh Government has allocated more than £40m to active travel

schemes in 2019-2024.

Analysis (see Section 6) of the actual profile of past and projected spending shows a heavy

bias towards road building that will increase traffic and carbon emissions.

Welsh active travel organisations have been calling for £20 per capita annual spend on

active travel, which would be a spend of over £60m per year. And to grade up to the

standards of provision advocated in this paper, sustained spend at comparable levels to the

European and UK best practice will be required - i.e. c.£50 per capita per year as in

Netherlands presently and as projected in London and Manchester.

Further comments

The infrastructure project pipeline needs to be completely revised so it really does emphasise

sustainable transport.

3. Ensuring planning policy reflects climate and carbon priorities

We commend Planning Policy Wales edition 10 (2018) for its approach to transport25.

The policy’s ‘National Sustainable Placemaking Outcomes’ lists ‘Accessible by means of

active travel and public transport/ Not car dependent/ Minimises the need to travel’.

The policy states that ‘Spatial strategies should support the objectives of minimising the

need to travel, reducing reliance on the private car and increasing walking, cycling and use of

public transport’ and that ‘Planning authorities should adopt policies to locate major

generators of travel demand, such as housing, employment, retailing, leisure and recreation,

and community facilities (including libraries, schools, doctor’s surgeries and hospitals), within

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existing urban areas or areas which are, or can be, easily reached by walking or cycling, and

are well served by public transport’.

The policy emphasises the need for integration of planning and transport and the

importance of adherence to a ‘Sustainable Transport Hierarchy for Planning’ which puts

active travel at the top, public transport next and private vehicles last. It explicitly requires

local authorities’ development plans to set out how they will ‘reduce the need to travel/

reduce dependency on private vehicles/ prioritise and support walking, cycling and use of

public transport’.

Further comments

These are all excellent provisions. The remaining requirement is for Welsh Government to put in

place strong procedures and resources to monitor and enforce actual implementation so that it

matches up to the aspiration.

The policy would be much more powerful and likely to succeed in achieving climate objectives for

transport if it included a powerful absolute prohibition on development of any significant scale

where is not excellent public transport.

4. Redeploying engineering skills from road building to road re-design for modal shift to

sustainable transport.

The Active Travel Act was a world-leading step by the Welsh Government, and we welcome

the funding allocated during the last year to turn it into practical measures on the ground.

This will lead to a resurgence of cycling and walking engineering and project management

professional capacity at local authority level.

The continued bias of funding towards road building, that facilitates vehicle use rather than

modal shift to sustainable modes, shows there is still a long way to go to ensure the

deployment of human and financial resources reflects climate priorities.

Further comments

Leadership from the top at Welsh Government and local authority levels is urgently needed to

change the management culture so it places highest value on engineering and expenditure for

sustainable modes of transport, rather than treating these as side-issues or as temporary fads.

5. Public transport regulation, integrated timetabling, standards and rights that match up to the

Climate Emergency.

We believe the Welsh Government’s commitment to legislate for a Public Transport (Wales)

Act has potential to be a game-changing measure in achieving public transport fit to tackle

the Climate Emergency.

We welcome the minister’s recognition that it is necessary for the Bill to “address some of

the negative impacts of de-regulation” in order to achieve his stated “ambition of a high

quality, low carbon, multi-modal and integrated public transport network”, and that he is

looking “to explore how bus services can be improved by better integrating routes and

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timetables, for example, with the railway”26.

The level of vision seems to fall short. The ministerial statement contemplates an option for

“enhanced partnership working” which implies continued prioritisation of commercial

interests over pressing public needs. All sorts of partnership arrangements have been tried

over many years and all fall far short of the sorts of regulation required and proven to

deliver from continental European regulatory models of public transport governance.

The same ministerial statement announced plans to raise the age threshold for older

people’s free bus travel. This will reduce bus use and runs completely counter to the sorts of

measures that are needed to make bus use more affordable and give more people free

access to bus services.

Further comments

The vision needs to be raised to look to recognising a Universal Basic Right to good public

transport, and putting in place an Act that delivers guaranteed public transport standards, with a

Wales-wide national multi-modal timetable and regulation that can deliver those standards.

6. Backing increased investment in sustainable transport with an Eco Levy financial disincentive

that enhances modal shift from private vehicles.

We welcome the public statements and the Cardiff White Paper that indicate that a road

user charge is being considered for Cardiff27 28. The political leadership being provided by

the City Council in this regard is to be commended, and should be backed to the full by

Welsh Government. It is good that the intention is to use funds to improve sustainable

transport options and that clean air has been part of the stated rationale.

Further comments

Cardiff City Council White Paper indicates a range charging approaches will be considered. In our

view it would be best not to focus this charge on congestion and instead show it is being

implemented as an Eco Levy to tackle the most pressing and important priorities facing society –

the Climate Emergency and local toxic emissions. This is important for communication purposes,

but also because the purpose influences the way the levy will be designed and develop in future.

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9. Top ten practical first steps across Wales

In the face of the challenge of the Climate Emergency, it can be hard to see where to start.

This section suggests ten practical first steps that the Welsh Government could take now.

1. Trial Swiss-style integrated timetabling and guaranteed public transport service

standards in one area. The Cambrian line corridor offers possibilities, as discussed

previously. In areas with planned Metro systems in south Wales and north Wales,

rail or tram services may attain ‘turn up and go’ spacings of just a few minutes.

Although frequent rail / tram services don’t require Taktfahrplan, the areas around

them will require public transport service frequency standards. The benefits of the

rail/tram services will be spread more widely if all surrounding settlements have

guaranteed frequent (re-regulated) bus services feeding into the Metro network.

2. Press ahead with mooted plans for road user charging in the greater Cardiff area,

but re-cast this as an Eco Levy. The levy should be specifically directed at tackling

the Climate Emergency and toxic local air pollution, rather than a congestion or

revenue-raising measure.

3. Initiate trials of free public transport in Cardiff in advance of the Eco Levy, and in

at least one town elsewhere. The trial should follow the Dunkirk model that is using

free public transport for reasons of economic regeneration. Free public transport

that treats public transport as a universal basic right is a potentially important

element of achieving greater social justice, and would strongly support the Future

Generations Act well-being goals, particularly the goal for a more equal Wales by

helping people to fulfil their potential, and the goal for a Wales of cohesive

communities by helping provide well-connected communities. Wrexham might be a

possible candidate, as a substantial place that acts as a centre for a set of bus

services, and as the focus for intended bus-orientated NE Wales Metro

developments across the Wrexham-Deeside area29.

4. Showcase the potential for longer-distance cycleways along the strategic road

network and other main roads radiating 15km from a regional centre that draws

significant commuter traffic. Aberystwyth, Bangor or Merthyr Tydfil might be

suitable starting points, although as illustrated earlier, this approach should be the

ambition for the whole of the Valleys hinterland to the Cardiff-Newport area.

5. Institute a local pilot programme of ‘Affordable E-bikes for Everyone’. Logically this

should combine with construction of excellent rapid uninterrupted cycleways as

above, and the intended expansion of Nextbike in the Cardiff area to e-bikes could

link with this. Consideration should be given to provision of free or cheap e-bikes for

job-seekers both when seeking work and for their initial period after successfully

gaining employment. A scheme of e-bike purchase incentives to mirror e-vehicle

grants should also be implemented. Employers in the Cardiff travel-to-work area

should be incentivised to purchase free annual Nextbike memberships for

employees who will use them to commute at least one day per week on average.

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This would have a similar effect to the employee e-bike hire system recently

announced by the Netherlands government, through which employers will provide

e-bikes worth £2,500 to employees for a cost of less than 20p per day30. The

programme’s take-up will be increaed by complementary e-bike infrastructure

measures – especially fund of e-bike charging points and secure bike parking (e-

bikes are valuable).

6. Create a demonstration city to show the potential for e-cargo bikes to replace

vans and cut HGV traffic. This means setting up ‘micro-consolidation depots’ for

HGV loads, regulating to ensure delivery firms have to use them, and subsidising

delivery companies to switch to e-cargo bikes. Some continental European cities

have replaced a majority of van deliveries with cargo bikes, whilst improving

delivery efficiency, and offer exemplars (pictured)31.

Swansea could be an appropriate location, and the high levels of van traffic on the

congested part of the M4 corridor between Newport and Cardiff indicate that an

initiative in that area may also be worthwhile.

7. Expand Welsh Government’s as irations for lower speed limits. The stated

aspiration for 20mph to be the default speed limit in all built up areas and the

successful trials of 50mph limits on sections of previously 70mph roads should be

expanded to establish lower speed limits elsewhere for climate reasons (in addition

to the present stated reasons of local air quality). All motorway and dual

carriageway speeds in Wales should be cut from 70mph to 60mph (or, in congested

or polluted areas, 50mph) and strictly enforced. This would cut at least 15% of the

annual emissions from traffic travelling on those roads32. All single carriageway

speed limits should be set at 50mph. In Wales’s national park areas the limit should

be set at 40mph, in conjunction with increased park-and-ride and other public

transport improvements, to encourage mode shift for climate reasons (whilst also

Micro-consolidation depot e-cargo bike pilot in Berlin based on shipping containers

Photo credit Hermes https://newsroom.hermesworld.com/international/logistics-micro-depots-successful-solutions-for-last-

mile-sustainability-1333/

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increasing tranquillity and amenity value). These measures are commensurate with

the scale and urgency of the Climate Emergency and should be communicated as

such33.

8. Institute a nationwide visitor lodging tax, with most of the income returned to the

areas it is raised, ring-fenced for expenditure on sustainable transport services

and infrastructure. It would be sensible to follow the Swiss practice of providing

visitors with free local public transport the day following their overnight payment.

9. Lobby the Westminster government for powers to implement a public transport

payroll levy of employers in Wales. This should be entirely used to fund climate-

friendly transport.

10. Establish an e-bike industrial strategy to ensure that the above support for e-bikes

results in manufacturing of e-bikes in Wales. The Bicycle Association have pointed

to the need for and the potential of a publicly funded ‘E-bike Valley’ cluster covering

research, development and manufacture. Wales has existing bicycle manufacture

expertise (particularly Frog Bikes’ factory at Pontypool) and many transferable skills

from its automotive and other engineering traditional strengths. Neath - Port Talbot

area would be one obvious candidate, given its strong history of manufacturing, the

local skills base, and the availability of suitable sites for a manufacturing facility.

These actions should be complemented by many other changes that are outlined in the

eight more detailed papers.

Many of the actions proposed above are win-win-win, for the economy, for quality of life,

and for the environment. They are highly relevant to the wellbeing goals in the Wellbeing of

Future Generations Act (2015). Those to raise funds and to dissuade people from climate

damaging activities require political leadership from the Welsh Government.

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10. Conclusion

There is no opt-out from climate change. If we don’t like the steps that are necessary to

prevent it, and fail to act, the cost both to us and future generations will be enormous. But if

we can find an effective path to cut carbon emissions from transport over the next 10 years,

the benefits are large. The radical policies advocated in this paper would not only help to

ensure that future generations have a planet that is worth living on. They will also give us air

that is clean to breathe, and neighbourhoods that are quieter, greener, nicer places to

spend time. They will make us healthier. They will give us new tram networks, green buses

and cycle-ways that make it easier for all of us to get around our towns, cities and rural

areas. And they will generate high-value jobs that will be sustained in the long term because

they are founded in the essential and inevitable transition to a climate-friendly industrial

base and green economy. The transport policy fit for the Climate Emergency laid out in this

paper will greatly aid achievement of the wellbeing goals laid out in the Wellbeing of Future

Generations Act.

Cars will not disappear. But we will use them much less often, because other means of

transport will be more efficient, affordable and attractive. The biggest winners will be those

who are worst off now: older people, children, and low income households (nearly half of

which don’t have access to a car). Wales has a fine tradition of concern for social justice, and

that concern, coupled with Wales’ world-leading commitment to the wellbeing of future

generations, means that here in Wales we have one of the best possible foundations for

leadership to tackle the climate emergency.

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Appendix 1

Copenhagen region of Denmark showing the cycle superhighway network

Key: Coloured lines show routes into Copenhagen that are already completed; black solid lines show routes

that are planned and have funding; black dotted lines show routes that are planned but not yet funded.

This map shows the cycle superhighway programme that is under way in the Capital

Region of Denmark. Copenhagen and the surrounding municipalities are working together

to build nearly 750km of long distance Cycle Superhighways radiating up to 40km from

Copenhagen.

The growing popularity of e-bikes is one reason why these routes, designed for

commuters, are proving so successful. On the routes completed so far 25% of users

previously drove and the average bike commute distance is 15km.

Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany are also starting to build long-distance cycle

superhighways radiating from their main towns.

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Appendix 2

Infrastructure Commission for Scotland: transport recommendations relevant to Wales

1. The Scottish Government should ensure that its new National Transport Strategy and

Strategic Transport Projects Review 2, which are due to be published during 2020, fully

reflect the need to deliver an inclusive net zero carbon economy ... This should include:

> Aligning strategic investment decisions to address fully the requirement for demand

management, a substantial increase in the proportion of journeys made by active travel,

and opportunities for shared mobility as well as a much greater role for public transport.

> There should be a presumption in favour of investment to future proof existing road

infrastructure and to make it safer, resilient and more reliable rather than increase road

capacity;

> When new/upgraded road capacity (such as bypasses) is deemed necessary it must be

as part of a package of interventions that includes a broadly equal reduction in road

capacity for private vehicles on the existing network;

> Following on from the above, and to help arrest the decline in bus patronage, there

should be a general programme of reallocating significant road space from private vehicles

to public transport in each of Scotland’s cities and the larger towns;

> There should be a binding national target for road traffic in Scotland derived from the

requirement to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2045, with targets set for each 5-year

milestone from the 2020 baseline to 2045;

> A national integrated fares scheme for all public transport prioritising a substantial

reduction in the cost of local trips should be costed by 2022;

2. Investment decision making based on the above framework will require a significant

change to investment guidance. Therefore, by the end of 2021, the Scottish Government

and Transport Scotland should develop a new investment appraisal and decision-making

process, incorporating necessary changes to the current Scottish Transport Appraisal

Guidance (STAG) and Investment Decision Making Guidance...putting the requirement to

achieve net zero carbon as the unequivocal priority of the transport infrastructure project

appraisal system;

> Appraising all potential future projects on the basis of their impact on the carbon and

inclusion outcomes of the overall mobility system rather than specific transport issues in

isolation.

> All Scottish Government funded projects included in its 2020 Infrastructure Investment

Plan should be prioritised against available inclusive net zero carbon economy outcomes.

3. To enable a managed transition to an inclusive net zero carbon economy road

infrastructure, the Scottish and UK Governments should immediately commit to work

together to establish a charging/payment regime alternative to the existing fuel and road

taxation based structure.

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Acknowledgements

Many thanks are due to Lisa Hopkinson, Transport for Quality of Life Associate, for her excellent

work on the papers upon which this briefing is based.

In addition we thank the following people for their helpful advice on the papers on which this

overview paper is based:

Kevin Anderson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, University of Manchester); Gavin Bland

(SYPTE); Keith Budden (Cenex); Tom Callow (Chargemaster Plc); Andy Cope (Sustrans); Flavio

Coppola (C40); Ellie Davies (Committee on Climate Change); Steve Dawe (No Expressway Alliance);

Maita Fernandez-Armestny to (Ajuntament de Barcelona); Rachel Freeman (formerly Tyndall Centre

for Climate Research, University of Manchester); Roger Geffen (Cycling UK); Phil Goodwin (Transport

for Quality of Life); Cait Hewitt (Aviation Environment Federation); Tim Johnson (Aviation

Environment Federation); Mike Kennedy; Alistair Kirkbride (Transport for Quality of Life); Ewa

Kmietowicz (Committee on Climate Change); Greg Marsden (Institute for Transport Studies,

University of Leeds); Lucy Mahoney (C40); Alastair Meikle; Isobel Mulligan; Andrew Murphy

(Transport and Environment); James Price (UCL Energy Institute, UCL); Steve Pye (UCL Energy

Institute, UCL); Matthew Reynolds (Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council); Anne Robinson;

Jonny Sadler (Manchester Climate Change Agency); Peter Schick (Stadt Freiburg im Breisgau); Ralph

Smyth; Aud Tennøy (Institute of Transport Economics – Norwegian Centre for Transport Research);

Chris Thompson (Citu); John Whitelegg (Associate, Zentrum für Mobilitätskultur in Kassel, Germany);

John Walker; Becky Willis; Department for Transport Aviation Statistics.

Thanks also to Friends of the Earth activists and staff for useful comments and suggestions on earlier

papers: Ali Abbas, Declan Allison, Jenny Bates, Mike Birkin, John Booth, Ric Bravery, Mike Childs,

Chris Crean, Richard Dyer, Haf Elgar, Magnus Gallie, Kate Gordon, Victoria Harvey, Oliver Hayes,

Gerald Kells, Ric Lander, Brenda Pollock, Anthony Rae and Matthew Snedker.

1 Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015

2 Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory 1990-2017 Issue 1.1 Wales by Source

3 For example, Anderson K. (2019) Aligning UK car emissions with Paris (1.5-2°C) provisional carbon budget

analysis calculates that for the UK to make its ‘fair’ contribution to the Paris “well below 2°C commitment”, the carbon budget for the car sector is equivalent to just 7-8 years of current carbon emissions. This means that there must be an immediate tightening of new car emission standards to <100gCO2/km, a complete transition to electric vehicles by 2035, a shift to very low carbon electricity by 2030-35 – and even then, a rapid reduction in vehicle kilometres of 40-60% is still required. 4 Jackson T. (2019) Zero Carbon Sooner: the case for an early zero carbon target for the UK CUSP Working

Paper No. 18 argues that “every year that progress is delayed, the challenge only gets bigger. Remaining within a fair carbon budget for the rest of this century requires deep and early decarbonisation”. He calculates that the UK needs to set a target for net zero carbon emissions by 2030 or earlier (rather than aiming for net zero by 2050, as assumed by the Committee on Climate Change). 5 Welsh Government 2019 Prosperity for All - A Low Carbon Wales see p.105

6 Estimate assumes: (a) the Combined Authority areas achieve public transport patronage of 282 trips per

annum per person (average of the figure for the six case study Verkehrsverbünde); (b) 35% of new public transport trips would otherwise have been made by car, in line with DfT-recommended diversion factors for bus interventions (adjusted to exclude rail and light rail) as given in Dunkerley F., Wardman M., Rohr C. and Fearnley N. (2018) Bus fare and journey time elasticities and diversion factors for all modes: a rapid evidence assessment Report to Department for Transport; (c) trips that switch from car to public transport have an average trip length of 4.9 miles, in line with average bus passenger journey length from National Travel Survey

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NTS0303 for 2016; (d) car mileage in Combined Authority areas is as given in Department for Transport statistics TRA8905; (e) population is constant. 7 It is worth explaining why we believe that changing the structure of the railway so that it is a single entity

operating under public control is necessary in the context of a climate emergency, as the very live debate about the structure of the railways has not been framed in the context of action on climate change. There are four reasons why we believe that the current poor governance of the railway is a climate issue. First, under the present system, Network Rail receives bids for train paths from train operators and has to try its best to fit them together. This is rather like trying to form a coherent picture from random pieces of different jigsaw puzzles. Network Rail has no power to design the most operationally-efficient timetable, or to create the most attractive offer to travellers. Were it to try to do this, it might receive legal challenges about access rights from the train operating companies or the Office of Rail and Road. Exacerbating this, the specification for each franchise is made in isolation and with little or no consultation with Network Rail, precluding a system-wide approach to timetabling. This means that it is next-to-impossible under the current structure of the railways to create a Swiss-style integrated clock-face timetable, which is essential as part of a universal, comprehensive public transport network. Second, under the current structure of the railways, ticket purchase for anything but a straightforward journey with a single train operating company is excessively complex, and this, together with the high cost of rail travel, deters many people from travelling by train. Third, fragmentation of the railway between multiple competing train operating companies means that when things go wrong, the passenger is often stuck in the middle: trains are not held to meet delayed services run by other operators (even if the delay is of a few minutes), and a ticket for one operator’s trains may not be accepted by another. Again, this means that people feel that they cannot trust public transport, and so they travel by car. Finally, there is no objective for the railway to be run in a way that reduces carbon emissions – and nor can there be, because ‘the railway’, as a single entity, does not exist. These problems are structural, and it is only by changing the structure of the railway so that it is a single entity operating under public control, in the public interest, and with an objective to act in such a way as to reduce carbon emissions from transport to the greatest extent possible, that they can be resolved. Transport for Quality of Life has carried out research in this area and is of the view that public ownership is necessary to achieve this. Friends of the Earth have not carried out research in this area so do not have a position on public ownership, but do believe that the structure of the railway needs to change to be managed as a single entity and under public control. 8 Sloman L. and Tyler J. (2019) Public transport everywhere with a national timetable Transport for Quality of

Life Radical Transport Policy Two-Pager #6. 9 The 746km of Cycle Superhighways planned for the Capital Region of Denmark are expected to cost €295

million, which is roughly equivalent to £400,000 per km. 10

Newson C. and Sloman L. (2019) The case for a UK incentive for e-bikes Report for the Bicycle Association. 11

Propensity to Cycle Tool Wales Relevant scenario is defined by ‘trip purpose = commuting’; geography = ‘middle super output area’; ‘scenario = ebikes’. 12

CairnsS. and Sloman L. (2019) Potential for e-cargo bikes to reduce congestion and pollution from vans in cities Report for the Bicycle Association. 13

BBC (2020) Welsh road tolls to be considered in review 14

Huré M., Javary C-M. and Vincent J (2019) Le nouveau réseau de transport gratuit à Dunkerque Observatoire des Villes du Transport Gratuit. 15

Through local authority contracts, reimbursement for trips made by concessionary pass-holders, and government grants. Taylor I. and Sloman L. (2016) op. cit. 16

For example, the Nottingham Workplace Parking Levy, a charge on workplace parking spaces, has raised about £9 million each year, helping to fund extension of the tram network, redevelopment of the train station and creation of an all-electric park and ride. Nottingham City Council (2018) Workplace parking levy wins praise from independent bodies. News article, 30 January 2018. Accessed 04.12.2018. 17

Source: National Statistics (2019) Country and regional analysis interactive tables which reports expenditure in five categories: ‘local public transport’ (which in the Welsh context we interpret as buses); ‘rail’; ‘local roads’; ‘national roads’; and ‘other’. This dataset includes expenditure by all public bodies – local government as well as the Welsh Government and any transport agencies and companies. The ‘other’ category may contain some walking and cycling expenditure, but is a small category. Whilst it is possible that some of the roads capital spending is also on sustainable modes of travel, such as cycle lanes, and bus priority measures, it is not plausible that these are a major proportion, given that total active travel investment in 2019-20 has been of the order of £40m (see Waters L (2019) Active travel projects announcement) and furthermore, this total may

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not all be capital spending). There is also a likelihood that some of this spending is road maintenance, rather than new road building, but much road maintenance comes from revenue rather than capital spending, and the accompanying analysis of actual road projects for the next 5 years strongly tends to confirm that road building spend is the major bulk of capital expenditure. 18

Source: Welsh Government (2019) Welsh Infrastructure Improvement Plan project pipeline update 2019 which reports Welsh Government capital expenditure expected from the 5-year National Transport Finance Plan. In addition this report lists expenditure directed via local government, which documents, in addition to the data plotted in the chart, a further £158m of capital spending on roads anticipated over the 5-year pipeline period, although at this level many funding allocation definitions are obscure and may contain mixtures of road building and road maintenance and mixtures of road spending directed at general traffic and roads spending directed at sustainable modes. 19

Welsh Government 2019 Prosperity for All - A Low Carbon Wales 20

Welsh Government 2019 Wales accepts committee-climate-change-95-emissions-reduction-target_press release 21

It does profile the Nextbike scheme and its expansion into e-bikes and asserts that this will enhance access to affordable transport by socially and economically disadvantaged people, but it fails to state how this will in practice be targeted at those people and how they will be given affordable hire options. 22

Infrastructure Commission for Scotland (2020) key findings report 23

Cost and local ecological damage were given precedence in the decision letter, but Mark Drakeford’s speech to Assembly Members announcing the decision also puts it in the broader context of the declaration of a Climate Emergency by the Welsh Assembly. Drakeford 2019 Address to Welsh Assembly on M4 Decision 24

Lee Waters 2019 Active travel funding announcement Dec Note: it is not clear whether the £40m referred to in this announcement may include revenue funding as well as capital funding. 25

Welsh Government 2018 Planning Policy Wales edition 10 26

Skates K (2019) Written Statement of Update on Public Transport Wales Bill and Wider Bus Reform Agenda 27

Walesonline 2020 Cardiff Congestion Charge for Drivers 28

Cardiff City Council 2019 Cardiff's Transport White Paper: Transport Vision to 2030 29

By way of comparison, Dunkirk is 90,000. Wrexham at 66,000 is the largest town in N. Wales. Local industry includes biopharmaceuticals, automotive supply chain, food and brewing, plus aerospace-linked work with Airbus at Broughton 10km away. There is more industry in the broader Deeside area. The NE Wales Metro vision is based around providing sustainable transport access to the area’s multiple employment sites, primarily through bus services. One possible obstacle may be that Wrexham is only 15km from Chester which may make independent management of bus services somewhat more difficult. 30

Ebike Tips (2020) Netherlands_expecting_even_greater_e-bike_boom_as_tax_breaks_and_incentives_kick_in_for_2020 31

Cairns S and Sloman L (2019) Potential for e-cargo bikes to reduce congestion and pollution from vans in cities Potential for e-cargo bikes to reduce congestion and pollution from vans in cities Transport for Quality of Life report for the Bicycle Association p.17. 32

Anable J & Ledbury M (2006) ERC Quick Hits 2: Limiting Speed for UK Energy Research Council. The authors note that this number is conservative because it only looks at vehicle efficiencies. In practice speed limit reductions would also cause a significant reduction in numbers of trips and trip lengths. The 2008 and 2009 reports of the Committee on Climate Change provide calculations of carbon savings that appear to be somewhat higher for this reason and a pilot study by CE Delft also factors in this traffic reduction effect CE_Delft_2010_Why Slower Is Better. 33

Arguably these measures are less draconian than the cuts in speed limits in America and other countries during the 1970s ‘Oil Crisis’, which viewed in terms of existential impacts was a lesser ‘emergency’.