EU Pavilion Doha, November 29, 2012

Chapter 4: Bridging the Emissions Gap

Laura Segafredo, ClimateWorks Foundation

Chapter 4 writing team

Lead Authors: Laura Segafredo (ClimateWorks Foundation, USA); Ronaldo Seroa da Motta (State University of Rio de Janeiro and Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brazil). Contributing Authors: Arild Angelsen (Centre for International Forestry Research, Indonesia and Norwegian University of Life Science, Norway); Kornelis Blok (Ecofys, Germany); Ramon Cruz (Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, USA); Holger Dalkmann (EMBARQ/World Resources Institute, USA); Christine Egan (Collaborative Labelling and Appliance Standards Project, Belgium); Cristiano Façanha (International Council on Clean Transportation, USA); Peter Graham (Global Building Performance Network, France); Jorge Hargrave (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brazil); Debbie Karpay (Collaborative Labelling and Appliance Standards Project, Belgium); Julien Pestiaux (Climact, Belgium); My Ton (Collaborative Labelling and Appliance Standards Project, Belgium); Diana Ürge-Vorsatz (Central European University, Hungary); Sven Wunder (Centre for International Forestry Research, Brazil).

Bridging the gap with sector-specific policies The emission reduction potential is still significant but time is running out:

• Based on a review of available studies, the technical mitigation potential achievable at a cost below $50-100/ton CO2e is estimated in the range of 17±3 Gt CO2e in 2020 – barely sufficient to stay on a 2° trajectory

Sector-specific policy action based on best practices can help close the emissions gap:

• Policy actions at the national level, often undertaken for reasons other than climate, have proven successful at reducing carbon emissions

• Replicating and scaling up these experiences could help close the emissions gap even as a global climate deal remains elusive

• 3 sectors analyzed in detail in the 2012 report, covering ~40% of mitigation potential in 2020 (others will be addressed in subsequent reports): Buildings: building codes and appliance standards Transport: transit-oriented development, bus-rapid transit and vehicle

performance standards Forests: protected areas, economic instruments, policies affecting

deforestation drivers

Buildings: policies that work and how to scale them up Best practice policy: Building Codes

• Buildings contribute to 8% of global GHG emissions and ~1/3 of energy-related emissions

• Long-term cost-effectiveness of GHG emissions reduction in building sector is among highest

• Lock-in of high emissions is a serious issue, given the long life of building stocks and low turnover rates – flip side: well designed, strong building codes can also “lock-in” emission reductions for decades

Drivers, co-benefits and scale-up: • Building regulations usually driven by safety, cost-savings and other co-

benefits such as job creation, improved air quality, etc. • Scaling up ambition in energy performance levels, building types and

geographic reach has exceptional potential to reduce GHG emissions • Successful policies are site, context and culture-specific – examples of

well-designed policy packages exist in EU, China, USA and are all different • Important role of cities as engines for policy change • Enforcement is crucial and the track record so far is not great

Appliances: policies that work and how to scale them up Best practice policy: Appliance Standards and Labels (S&L):

• S&Ls have the potential to significantly reduce residential, commercial and industrial energy consumption for decades

• Emission reductions can be realized quickly, since equipment turnover is usually 10-15 years

• Policy implementation can move relatively fast

Drivers, co-benefits and scale-up: • S&Ls reduce electricity use and generate other co-benefits such as

improved economic efficiency, public health, etc. • Rules and regulations are most effective when designed to meet specific

national objectives and follow a rigorous cost-benefit analysis • Combining standards with labels has been proven to have the largest

impact on energy efficiency gains • Mandatory schemes are more effective than voluntary ones • Comparability across different regulations, standardized testing, and

rigorous measurement, verification and enforcement are crucial • S&Ls need to be regularly revised, updated and made more stringent

Transport : policies that work and how to scale them up Best practice policy: Avoid-Shift-Improve:

• Transport sector currently accounts for 13% of global GHG emissions and has highest projected emissions growth rate

• Policy framework and examples of instruments: Avoid = eliminate or reduce trips; example: transit-oriented development

(TOD) Shift = encourage low-carbon modes of transport; example: bus-rapid

transit (BRT) Improve = increase efficiency of vehicles and fuels through better

technology; example: vehicle performance standards

Drivers, co-benefits and scale-up: • Avoid & Shift reduce GHG emissions while also reducing congestion and

improving road safety, air quality and public health • Improve policies also reduce fuel consumption, enhance energy security,

stimulate technology innovation and competitiveness, create jobs • Successful policy design of BRTs depends on accounting for co-benefits,

developing strong institutional support, engaging industry • Vehicle standards should be technology neutral, made more stringent every

year, include all vehicle classes and be combined with other incentives

Forests: policies that work and how to scale them up

Best practice policies: • Deforestation is the largest source of non-energy related anthropogenic GHG

emissions (~11%) • Avoided deforestation is a low-cost GHG mitigation option • Successful policy instruments (most effective when used in combination):

protected areas and other command-and-control (mostly targeted legislative) tools; economic incentives such as taxes, subsidies and payments for ecosystem services; policies affecting deforestation drivers such as agriculture and urban development

Drivers, co-benefits and scale-up: • Main drivers for policy action are the monetization of domestic

environmental services (e.g. eco-tourism), the co-benefits of conservation and national and international public opinion

• Policy design requires cross-sector coordination involving many stakeholders and a mix of incentives, disincentives and other tools

• Other key factors: monitoring and enforcement, political commitment, well-defined land tenure and economy-wide policies that don’t provide perverse incentives

Main takeaways

1) While the emission reduction potential in 2020 is still significant, time is running out. Delays in sector-specific policy action will gradually reduce the 2020 mitigation potential because of emissions lock-in.

2) A wide range of policies that are successful in cutting GHG emissions have already been implemented in many sectors and countries. These policies have also proven effective at delivering a wide range of other benefits such as reduced pollution, improved public health and strengthened energy security.

3) Considerable progress in sector-specific policy implementation has the potential to make the adoption of comprehensive and coherent climate policies more likely, both at the domestic and international level.

Thank you!

laura.segafredo@climateworks.org

Related information: www.climateworks.org/ptw