BRIDGE to INDIA_ India Solar Compass_October 2013

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  • 7/27/2019 BRIDGE to INDIA_ India Solar Compass_October 2013

    1/29 BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 1

  • 7/27/2019 BRIDGE to INDIA_ India Solar Compass_October 2013

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    DISCLAIMER 2013 BRIDGE TO INDIA Energy Pvt.

    Ltd.All rights reserved

    October 2013, New Delhi

    This report is owned by BRIDGE TOINDIA and is protected by Indian

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    CONTENTS

    1. Overview 01

    2. Market Dashboard 022.1 Market Compass 022.2 India Solar Market Prices 02

    2.3 Installed Capacity in India 03

    3. Policy and Projects Outlook 043.1 National Solar Mission 04

    3.2 State policies 05

    Tamil Nadu 06

    Andhra Pradesh 06

    Karnataka 07

    Madhya Pradesh 07

    Rajasthan 07

    Uttar Pradesh 07

    Punjab 08

    3.3 Renewable Purchase Obligation 08

    3.4 REC projects 08

    4. Industry4.1 Interview: Mr. HR Gupta, Managing Director, Indo Solar 10

    5. Key question: How does the group captivemodel sale o solar power work in India? 125.1 Background 12

    5.2 Denition 12

    5.3 Regulations: Theopen access mechanism 12

    5.4 Benets othe group captive model 15

    5.5 Group captive power plants under an OPEX model 16

    5.6 The business case or group captive power projects 17

    5.7 Risks 21

    5.8 Conclusion 22

    6. Annexure 236.1 Glossary o terms 23

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    India added a meager 155 MW in

    the previous quarter (July 2013 toSeptember 2013) as compared to the

    cumulative 780 MW added in the rsttwo quarters o 2013.This slowdown is

    primarily due to the lack o allocationslast year. In addition, or some projects

    under the Karnataka and MadhyaPradesh state policies, the deadlines

    have been extended without penalties.

    The mood is urther suppressed,

    because the eagerly awaited phasetwo o the National Solar Mission

    (NSM) continues to be postponed. It iscurrently awaiting cabinet approval.

    However, with elections coming up andconcerns over Indias high scal decit

    remaining, the Request or Selection(RS) document might be urther

    delayed.

    While the NSM slacks, there has beensome activity on the state level. In the

    last two quarters, new allocations ora cumulative capacity o 1.5 GW have

    been proposed.There is still conusionabout how many Power Purchase

    Agreements (PPAs) will actuallybe signed rom these allocations.

    For example, out o the total 2 GWcapacity planned under Tamil Nadu

    and Andhra Pradesh state policies,even government ocials assume that

    only 50% might actually be realized.So ar PPAs or 60 MW have been

    signed (all in Andhra Pradesh). The keyreasons or project delays have been

    problems related to land acquisition,

    delay in achieving nancial closureand delay rom developers end dueto the recent rupee devaluation.

    The rupee devaluation has madeimported equipments and oreign

    loans more expensive. Projects thatwere calculated too tightly or even

    with alling equipment costs in mind,might not be viable to build under

    current conditions. In act, Chinesemodule prices or Indian supplies have

    stabilized, i not increased, in the last

    couple o months. Thus delay might

    also translate into abortion in somecases.

    In spite o the various actors ordelay, government ocials in the

    south Indian states o Tamil Nadu andAndhra Pradesh seem condent that

    many more PPAs will be signed bythe end o this year. Projects would

    then be commissioned between thelast quarter o 2014 and rst quarter

    o 2015. Over and above that, AndhraPradesh is now inviting more interests

    and wants to sign PPAs in excess o500 MW. I a signicant part o these

    prospective PPAs get signed, theoverall outlook o the market appears

    positive and we can expect a signicantcapacity addition over the next one

    year.

    Also, there has been some amounto new interest in the third party sale

    o power through various businessmodels and we see the rst projects

    coming up in this segment. Therevenue or such third party sale o

    power is oten combined with therevenue rom Renewable Energy

    Certicates (RECs) and/or the benetrom Accelerated Depreciation (AD).

    Models such as group captive arebeing discussed or larger project

    capacities. In this edition, we areproviding an in-depth assessment o

    the group captive model in our keyquestion section.

    Indias total installed PV capacity atpresent stands at 1.96 GW. Apart rom

    that, around 1.5 GW is currently atdierent stages o development. I

    PPA signing picks up or the projectsallocated under the Tamil Nadu and

    Andhra Pradesh state policies andi the NSM is announced within this

    year, then we can expect a cumulativeinstalled capacity o around 3.5 GW or

    utility scale projects in India by the endo 2014.

    1. OVERVIEW

    India added a meager155 MW in the previous

    quarter (July 2013to September 2013)as compared to thecumulative 780 MW

    added in the frst two

    quarters o 2013.

    Indias total installedcapacity at presentstands at 1.96 GW.

    Apart rom that, around1.5 GW is currently

    under dierent stages

    o development.

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    Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA

    2. MARKETDASHBOARD

    Indication Trend PV

    Lowest FiT Decreased ` 5.51/kWh1

    Interest Rate Unchanged 13%

    Average Capex Decreased ` 65/Wp

    c-Si modules (China, Taiwan) Decreased $ 0.58/Wp*

    Thin Film modules (US and Malaysia) Decreased $ 0.53/Wp*

    c-Si modules (Japan, Europe) Decreased $ 0.65/Wp*

    Thin Film modules (Japan) Decreased $ 0.60/Wp*

    B

    RIDGETOINDIA,2013

    ----------------------1The lowest tari o ` 5.51/KWh (0.07/kWh, $0.09/kWh) has been mentioned by Sun Pharma underKarnataka bidding process. However, as per a governement ocial, who did not want to be namedthere is some dispute in the Karnataka bids and the process is on hold until urther clarity.

    B

    RIDGETOINDIA,2013

    GROW

    INGEM

    ERG

    IN

    G

    MATUR

    ENAS

    CEN

    T

    2.1 MARKET COMPASS

    *$ rate has been used to avoid eect o currency fuctuations

    All prices are or a reerence 10MW project

    All prices are without duties and taxes

    2.2 INDIAN SOLAR MARKET PRICES

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    2.3 INSTALLEDCAPACITY IN INDIA

    BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013

    Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA

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    3. POLICY ANDPROJECTSOUTLOOK

    We would describe the last quarteras being dominated by policy

    instability: We have seen conusion inTamil Nadu over the tari proposed

    by its regulatory commission; theannouncement o the creation o the

    new state o Telangana rom AndhraPradesh, which put the allocations and

    uture bankability o projects underquestion; Gujarat briefy contemplated

    a retrospective tari revision; andnew allocations in Karnataka seem to

    have been put on hold due to a dispute(reer below). Moreover, there has been

    no penalty levied or delayed projectsunder the Madhya Pradesh and

    Karnataka policies, which is settinga bad precedent or the upcoming

    projects in those states. On the brightside, in the last quarter (July 2013 to

    September 2013), the states o Punjab,Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka allocated

    new projects.

    A capacity o close to 1.5 GW is

    currently under dierent stages odevelopment across India. With this

    proposed capacity addition we canexpect Indias cumulative PV capacity

    or utility scale projects to reach atleast 2.5 GW by mid o 2014 and closeto 3.5 GW by the end o 2014. Earlier,

    BRIDGE TO INDIA had predicted aninstalled capacity o 4 GW by the end

    o 2014. However, due to delays in thesigning o PPAs in Andhra Pradesh

    and Tamil Nadu and due to a no-show o phase two o the NSM until

    now, we have revised our projections

    downward.

    In the upcoming quarter (October 2013to December 2013), the bulk o newly

    commissioned projects will come notrom policies, but rom the private

    sale o solar power under the RECmechanism.

    3.1 NATIONALSOLAR MISSIONProject developers have been looking

    orward to the new allocations underbatch one o phase two o the National

    Solar Mission (NSM) or some timenow. The drat RS document was

    released in April 2013 and the biddingprocess was originally expected

    or May o this year. However, therehas been no ocial news since. As

    per recent statements by ministryocials, the nalized policy and

    related documents have now been

    submitted to the Union Cabinet orapproval. However, with concernsabout Indias high scal decit and

    with the model code o conduct orthe upcoming elections, it is unlikely

    that the policy will be approved soon.I the allocations under the NSM are

    not annonced within a month, thereis a high probability that it might be

    postponed until ater the generalelections in May 2014. BRIDGE TO

    INDIA, however, is optimistic that thebidding process or the NSM will begin

    this year itsel.

    In the last quarter, thestates o Punjab, UttarPradesh and Karnatakaallocated new projects.

    The fnalized policy andrelated documents

    or phase two o theNSM have now been

    submitted to theUnion Cabinet or

    approval.

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    Table 3-1: Overview o the state policies in India

    Tamil

    Nadu

    Andhra

    Pradesh

    Karna-

    taka

    Punjab Madhya

    Pradesh

    Uttar

    Pradesh

    Rajasthan Total/aver-

    age

    Allocationdate

    Jun-13 Jun-13 Apr-12 Jul-13 May-12 Jul-13 Mar-13 Most o theallocationshappened inthe rst halo 2013

    PPAs signedas onSeptember2013 (MW)

    0 60 60 0 225 0 75 420

    Tari (INR/kWh)

    6.48(with an

    escalationo 5% p.a.or the rst10 years)

    6.49 7.94 8.5(60 MW)

    5.51 8.05 (130MW)

    7.2 8.63 7.9-8.05 8.01 9.27 6.45 7.59

    New PPAsexpected tobe signed bythe year end(MW)

    500 80 100 230 0 120 0 1,330

    Furtherallocations(MW)

    None 500* None None None None RS or 1MW x 50announced

    550

    Delayedprojects(MW)

    NA NA 50 NA 120 NA NA 170

    Expectedcommi-ssioningdate oprojectsunderdeployment

    Dec-2014 Dec-2014

    Mar-14(50 MW)Dec-14(110MW)

    Dec -14 Mar-14 Dec-14 Mar-14 250 MW byMarch 2014;1,240 MWby Dec-14

    Expected

    period oprocurem-ent

    Jan 14

    Mar 14

    Jan 14

    Mar 14

    Ongoing Jan 14

    Mar 14

    Ongoing Jan 2014

    Mar 2014

    Ongoing Most o the

    procure-ments willtake placebetweenJanuary-March 2014

    Key Projects MohanBreweries(110 MW),UnitedTelecom(100 MW),Welspun(60 MW)

    EsselMining(35 MW),KranthiEdice(30 MW), MahiraPower(20 MW)

    EsselInra (10MW),HelenaPower(10 MW),SaiSudhir(10 MW)

    Welspun(32 MW),Asopus (34MW), EsselInra-projects(30 MW)

    Acme(25 MW),Moserbaer(25 MW),Welspun(25 MW)

    EsselInra (50MW),Moserbaer(20MW), Srideveloped(20 MW)

    RohaDyechem(25 MW),EsselMining(20 MW),EnergoEngineering(10 MW)

    * Based on an interview with the Andhra Pradesh state department ocials, this will be based on direct allocation at

    the pre- determined tari

    B

    RIDGETOI

    NDIA,2013

    Source:BRID

    GETOINDIA

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    ----------------------21 EUR = INR 80 and 1 USD = INR 603http://bridgetoindia.com/blog/?p=1605

    Tamil NaduTamil Nadus tender in December2012 led to an issuance o Letter o

    Intents (LOIs) or 690 MW o projects.As per our discussion with the

    ocials, no PPAs have been signedas o September 2013 but all PPAs

    are expected to be signed in thenext couple o months. The states

    nodal agency, Tamil Nadu EnergyDevelopment Agency (TEDA), has

    oered a tari o `6.48/kWh (0.08/kWh, $0.10/kWh) with a 5% escalation

    or the rst 10 years. The Tamil NaduElectricity Regulatory Commission(TNERC), the regulatory agency that

    is required to sanction all taris,has proposed a separate tari o

    `5.78/kWh(0.07/kWh, $0.10/kWh)2without escalation. The PPA with the

    developers is only bankable i TNERCapproves the tari being oered

    by TEDA. TEDA has tried to assurethe project developers that the new

    proposed tari will have no bearingon their projects and that TNERC

    will provide a sanction or the tariscurrently being oered.

    In a situation where the taris beingoered by TEDA are not approved by

    TNERC, we can expect a majority othe project developers to back out. On

    the other hand, i TNERC approvesthe older taris, the largest capacity

    addition in 2014 can be expected romTamil Nadu. As there has been an

    initial delay due to the concerns overthe tari revision, we might not see

    300 MW projects being commissionedby June 2014 as predicted by us in the

    July 2013 edition o the India SolarCompass. Instead, we expect a capacity

    o 200 MW to be commissioned bySeptember 2014.

    Andhra PradeshMost investors are currently skepticalabout projects in Andhra Pradesh

    taking o anytime soon. One reason

    is that the initial retrospective changein tari by the state3 has led to a

    loss in condence in the processes

    being ollowed. Out o the 1,700 MWo original applications submitted in

    2013, applications or less than 150MW is expected to nalize. Another

    reason or a poor response rom

    investor and developers in the state isthe expected split o Andhra Pradeshinto two separate states (the new

    state is to be called Telangana. As perour discussions with the government

    ocials, they do not oresee theproposed division o the state to have

    a considerable impact on the solarprojects.However, some developers

    have their reservations. This isespecially true or those who have

    projects in central Andhra Pradesh,where the distribution company might

    be biurcated in the uture.

    Around 61 MW o PPAs have alreadybeen signed and as per the ocials

    o New and Renewable EnergyDevelopment Corporation o Andhra

    Pradesh, another 80 MW o PPAs areexpected soon. As there is an incentive

    or early commissioning in AndhraPradesh, project developers who have

    a head start in terms o nalizing landprocurement and partner selection

    or Engineering Procurement andConstruction (EPC) beore signing o

    the PPAs, will be able to benet romthat. We expect that at least a capacity

    o 60 MW will be commissioned aheado schedule and within the third

    quarter o 2014.

    Apart rom this, Andhra Pradesh has

    provided an open oer or developersto take up projects at the existing

    taris. Four to ve large projects (up to100 MW) are expected to take up this

    oer.

    TEDA has tried to

    assure the projectdevelopers that thenew proposed tari

    in Tamil Nadu willhave no bearing on

    their projects and thatTNERC will provide a

    sanction or the taris

    currently being oered.

    Out o 1,700 MW ooriginal applications

    submitted in 2013,applications or less

    than 150 MW areexpected to fnalize in

    Andhra Pradesh.

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    Andhra Pradesh has also opened

    up a window or new interests ordevelopers to set up solar projects at

    the same tari that is being oeredto the existing projects (`6.49/kWh

    (0.08/kWh, $0.10/kWh). As per our

    conversations with the ocials, theyare expecting resh applications oaround 500 MW. However, given the

    low taris in the state, BRIDGE TOINDIA thinks that their estimates are

    too optimistic and we do not expectthat the resh additional capacity will

    exceed 200 MW.

    Karnataka

    A capacity o 60 MW had been allocatedunder the Karnataka state policy inApril 2012. As per the PPA, these

    projects were to be commissioned byOctober 2013. However, due to delay in

    land acquisition and nancial closure,only one project with a capacity o 10

    MW by Jindal Aluminum has beencommissioned on time. The ocial

    deadline has been extended until2014 without nes or the delays.

    According to unconrmed sources,

    the recent allocation process or acapacity o 130 MW has been put onhold as some companies have disputed

    the published taris, claiming someprocedural mistake. These allocations

    are likely to remain on hold untilthere is more clarity. We think that

    commissioning o any part o thenewly allocated capacity o 130 MW

    within the next year is unlikely. Thelet over capacity o 50 MW rom the

    allocations in 2012 is expected to becommissioned by the end o the rst

    quarter o 2014.

    Madhya PradeshIn Madhya Pradesh, our projects o

    25 MW each, one project o 20 MW andanother o 105 MW were allocated in

    May 2012. The 25 and 20 MW projectswere to be commissioned by June 2013

    and the 105 MW project by December

    2013. However, as o September 2013,only a 105 MW project by Welspunhas been commissioned ahead o

    schedule. As so oten, the delay is citedas being due to diculties in achieving

    nancial closure coupled with delays

    in acquiring land or projects has led tosubstantial delay in the commissioning

    o the remaining projects. One projectdeveloper commented that the delay

    o their project has been due to the

    recent rupee devaluation.

    The deadline or the remainingcapacity o 120 MW has now been

    extended until March 2014 and noneo the project developers is being

    penalized. Hence, we expect a capacityo 80 MW to be commissioned beore

    the new deadline.

    RajasthanA capacity o 75 MW that has been

    allocated in Rajasthan seems tobe on track. As per ocials in the

    department, all projects are expectedto meet their deadline o March 2014.

    Also, they mentioned that most othe projects have either secured

    nancial closure or are in the processo nalizing it. Given the experience

    under most solar policies and goingby the previous experinece o the

    developers, we, however, expect thattwo to three projects with a capacity o

    around 25 MW will be commissionedby the March 2014 deadline and the

    remaining by around June 2014.

    Uttar PradeshUttar Pradesh has nalized

    agreements with seven projectdevelopers or a cumulative capacity

    o 130 MW. The developers are:

    Jakson Power (10 MW), Moser Baer(20 MW), Sree Developers (20 MW),DK Inracon (10 MW), Reex Energy

    (10 MW), Azure power (10 MW) andEssel Inraprojects (50 MW). The

    PPAs in the state are expected to besigned beore the end o the year.

    The government has urther signed amemorandum o understanding with

    National Hydro Power Corporation(NHPC) or a proposed 100 MW solar

    project. It is not yet clear when thisproject is to be nalized. Most o the

    mentioned project developers willlikely do their own EPC and might be

    able to complete their projects ahead

    The recent allocation

    process in Karnataka,or a capacity o 130

    MW has been puton hold as somecompanies have

    disputed the publishedtaris.

    Uttar Pradesh hasfnalized agreements

    with seven projectdevelopers or a

    cumulative capacity o130 MW.

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    ----------------------4EPC providers are setting up solar parks specically or REC or captive projects. These parksprovide land and grid-connectivity assistance to solar project developers.

    2014. This is because the time spent in

    selecting an EPC partner will be savedand the allocation o internal resources

    will be more ecient. Also, as allthe decisions regarding the technical

    design, selection o equipment and

    timelines will be taken by the projectdeveloper itsel, it is expected thatthere will not be any procedural delays.

    PunjabPunjab has nalized agreementswith 26 project developers to develop

    a cumulative capacity o 250 MW.Some o the key projects in the

    state are: Asopus Inrastructure (34

    MW), Welspun Solar (32 MW), EsselInraprojects (30 MW), MoserbaerClean Energy (30 MW), Azure Power

    (30 MW), Solairedirect (20 MW), PunjLloyd (20 MW). The projects have been

    given six months or nancial closureand 13 months or commissioning.

    The average tari in Punjab is `8.28/kWh (0.10/kWh, $0.14/kWh).This

    is higher than most other states,largely due to the high land costs and

    relatively low irradiation in the state.

    As the debt nancing is usually doneater the land has been bought, theseprojects will look more attractive to the

    lenders at the time o debt nancing.Due to this reason, the debt nancing

    or projects in Punjab is expected tobe relatively easier. None o the PPAs

    have been signed until now and weexpect them to be signed by the end

    o the year. As a result, it is unlikelythat there will be any major capacity

    additions rom Punjab in the rst halo 2014. However, we might see an

    additional capacity o around 100 MWby September 2014.

    3.3 RENEWABLEPURCHASEOBLIGATIONRecently, there has been more

    condence in the market with regards

    to the enorcement o Renewable

    Purchase Obligation (RPOs) inIndia. Delhi distribution companies

    (DISCOMs), or example, have alreadyincluded the RPO compliance expenses

    in the tari. The Madhya Pradesh

    Electricity Regulatory Commissionhas mandated the DISCOMs tocomply with RPOs. Similarly, the

    obligated entities in Punjab havebeen mandated to comply with the

    RPOs o nancial year 2011-12 and2012-13. West Bengal is planning to

    comply with its solar RPO by the endo 2013. These developments are an

    indication that more states are gettingserious about implementing RPOs.

    As more states begin to implementthe RPO mechanism the demand or

    solar power will increase. This canprovide an additional impetus to the

    solar market. For example, or thestates that are not currently meeting

    their RPOs, National Thermal PowerCorporation is setting up various

    power plants across the country orthe DISCOMs in these states. Many

    o these projects are expected to becommissioned by March 2014. Thisincludes the 50 MW project in Madhya

    Pradesh (EPC contracted to Tata PowerSolar), 10 MW and 15 MW project in

    Uttar Pradesh (EPC contracted toBHEL) and 10 MW project in Orissa

    (EPC contracted to BHEL).

    3.4 REC PROJECTSOut o a capacity o 155 MW that has

    been added in India in the previous

    quarter, around 40 MW is or theprojects under the REC mechanism.With projects or third-party sale o

    power gaining popularity and severalsolar parks4 coming up primarily

    in the states o Madhya Pradesh andRajasthan, in the next one year, we

    expect an additional capacity o 150MW or projects that use a combination

    o revenue through RECs withindustrial or commercial taris.

    Punjab has fnalized

    agreements with 26project developers todevelop a cumulative

    capacity o 250 MW.

    Out o a capacity o155 MW that has been

    added in India in theprevious quarter,

    around 40 MW is orthe projects under the

    REC mechanism.

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    Figure 3-1: Projected quarterly PV installations in India (in MW)

    Source:BRIDGETOINDIA

    B

    RIDGETOINDIA,2013

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    As o today, with some exceptions,

    most o the photovoltaic (PV)manuacturing capacity in India is

    either lying idle or operating at a verylow capacity. Indian manuacturers

    have largely been unable to competewith international module suppliers

    on costs. To revive their ortunes,manuacturers are banking on the

    implementation o anti-dumpingduties (ADD) and a domestic content

    requirement (DCR). DCR is onlyapplicable or the NSM projects in

    India and it is expected that batchone o phase two o the NSM would

    have a capacity o around 200 MW

    earmarked or domestic modules.This is despite the act that the UShas challenged DCR in the World

    Trade Organization (WTO). However,this would be insucient to support

    the 2 GW o manuacturing capacityin India. ADD on the other hand has

    the potential to change the supplydynamics in the Indian solar sector

    drastically. In the January 2013 editiono the India Solar Compass, BRIDGE

    TO INDIA had orecast that going by theprocedure ollowed or ADD, an interim

    order could be announced as early asJuly 2013. Given that no interim order

    has been announced until date, it canbe assumed that this investigation is

    taking longer than usual. This might bedue to the act that this is a high prole

    case with considerable internationalscrutiny and pressure. As per the

    normal procedure, the nal outcomeshould have been expected 23rd

    November 2013 (one year rom thedate o initiation). However, given that

    the nal outcome has to be precededby an interim order, the investigations

    might well miss the deadline.

    BRIDGE TO INDIA has maintained thatimposition o ADD would be negative

    or the Indian solar sector as it willdrive up costs and slow down adoption

    o the technology, which should be

    the primary goal. Nevertheless, thisis a legal and not a political procedure

    and i dumping has taken place, then

    ADD will most likely be imposedirrespective o the implications on the

    industry.

    To present a contrarian view, we asked

    HR Gupta, Managing Director o IndoSolar, to share his views on the Indian

    solar manuacturing sector. Indo Solaris Indias largest cell manuacturer

    with a current manuacturing capacityo 160 MWp. The company has plans to

    increase the capacity to 360 MWp.

    4.1 INTERVIEW: HR

    GUPTA, MANAGINGDIRECTOR, INDOSOLAR1. What is the current state o the

    Indian solar manuacturing industry?

    Cell manuacturing in India ispractically idle. These acilities are

    either underutilized or completelyshut. Module makers are mostly

    catering to the o-grid requirementand are now also receiving some

    enquires rom Europe. However,sizeable orders and visibility is not

    there. Some module manuacturersare also developing their own projects

    and using their own modules orthese projects to keep their plants

    operational.

    2. What can be expected in terms o

    DCR and anti-dumping duties? By

    when can we expect some clarity onthe subject?

    My understanding on DCR is that the

    documents or phase two o the NSMare awaiting cabinet approval.

    On ADD, we are now in the 20th month

    since we sought remedial action and10th month since initiation. There is a

    high probability that the matter will bedecided next month.

    4. INDUSTRY

    An anti-dumping duty

    has the potential tochange the supply

    dynamics in the Indiansolar sector drastically.

    HR Gupta,

    Managing Director,Indo Solar

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    3. I anti-dumping duties are enorced,

    the taris or solar power are

    expected to go up. Do you agree? Is it

    justied?

    The cost o solar power on a dumping

    basis has already wiped out aroundUS$ 80 Billion in market capital and

    the supply side o the solar value chainhas been decimated globally.

    I one allows only negative marginson the supply side, soon there will

    be no supply side at all. In order tomaintain a stable production capacity

    and allow or R&D, prices should

    be commensurate to support thesustainability o the sector.

    4. What would be your recipe to make

    the manuacturing o solar modules

    competitive in the long run?

    I you closely analyze costs, aswas done by NREL and MIT, in the

    US, you will see that operationalmanuacturing costs are similar

    globally. In India, we have high costo debt and high power costs but

    these can easily be optimized whenmanuacturers are bankable, can

    borrow cheaper oshore and switch togrid power.

    Manuacturing o solar cells and

    modules is already competitive andthe bill o materials is anyway similaramongst all manuacturers.

    In India, we have high

    cost o debt and highpower costs but these

    can easily be optimizedwhen manuacturers

    are bankable andcan borrow cheaper

    oshore and switch togrid power.

    Errata rom the previous edition o the India Solar Compass (July 2013):

    Correction is in the table on page 19. Satec Enviro supplied only the steel or the

    trackers. They did not install the tracking system as reported by us. Insolare hasinstalled the trackers or their project.

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    5. KEYQUESTION: HOW

    DOES

    THE GROUPCAPTIVE MODELWORK?

    5.1 BACKGROUNDUntil now, the Indian solar markethas been dominated by policy basedprojects that rely on government

    incentives or obligations. However, aall in the cost o solar power and a

    rise in the cost o conventional powerhave prompted many companies to

    explore business models whereinsolar power can compete in the

    power market without governmentsupport. India is currently in a situation

    where parity or many industrial andcommercial consumers is within reach.

    In such a situation, viability enablers

    such as accelerated depreciation, anyadditional revenue through the RECmechanism or any other incentive such

    as a waiver o open access charges orelectricity duty can tilt the balance to

    make solar power an attractive optionor power consumers and investors

    alike. Several new business modelsare evolving in India to tap into this

    opportunity. Generation o solar powerunder the group captive model is one

    o most talked about business modelsin the Indian market at present.

    5.2 DEFINITIONThe group captive model is based onthe Electricity Act 2003. The act allowsor a structure or supply o power to

    a group o consumers, treating themas captive consumers, as long as the

    ollowing conditions are met:

    i Not less than 26% o the ownershipis held by captive consumers.

    ii Not less than 51% o the aggregate

    electricity generated in such plant,determined on an annual basis, is

    used or captive consumption.

    5.3 REGULATIONS:THE OPEN ACCESSMECHANISMTypically, group captive power projectshave to operate within the ambit o

    the open access mechanism. Openaccess allows large power consumers

    (typically with a connected load o 1

    MW and above) to buy power directlyrom the open market.

    On the basis o the type o contract,open access is categorized as: Short

    term open access (STOA), mediumterm open access (MTOA) and long

    term open access (LTOA). Typically,solar power plants under the group

    captive model opt or the LTOA basedagreements.

    While open access consumers can

    buy directly rom the group captiveproject or the open market, they

    are subject to several charges that

    are incurred or using the alreadyavailable transmission and distributioninrastructure. These include:

    i Connectivity charges These are

    recurring, xed charges payableby a consumer or the electricity

    connection provided by thedistribution licensee DISCOM. This

    varies with the connected loadand is chargeable within a range

    o ` 15/kW/per month (0.19/kW/

    per month, $0.25/kW/per month)to ` 500/kW/month (6.3/kW/per month, $8.3/kW/per month)

    depending on the category oconsumer.

    ii PoC charges Point o connectioncharges are transmission charges

    introduced to recover the xedcosts o the transmission network.

    They take into consideration thedistance o the customer rom the

    load center (generator) and thedirection o the node in the grid.

    These charges and the relatedlosses are applicable to captive

    generating plants and consumersconnected to a central or state

    transmission network (66 kVA or132 kVA) or a DISCOM network

    (11kVA and 33 kVA). Generally, thecharges are in the range o `0.08

    0.16/kWh (0.001 0.002/kWh,$0.001 0.003/kWh)

    iii Transmission charges These

    charges are payable to thetransmission licensee (state

    transmission unit) or using thetransmission inrastructure.

    Typically, group captivepower projects haveto operate within the

    ambit o the open

    access mechanism.Open access allows

    large power consumersto buy power directly

    rom the open market.

    While open accessconsumers can buy

    directly rom thegroup captive project

    or the open market,they are subject to

    several chargesthat are incurred orusing the already

    available transmissionand distributioninrastructure.

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    Figure 5-1: Key charges and losses taken or an average case ogroup captive sale o power in India

    These charges are in the range

    o `50,000 to 200,000/MW/month (625 2,500/MW/month,

    $833- 3,333/MW/month or LTOAconsumers and in range o `0.10

    0.50/kWh (0.001 0.006/kWh,

    $0.002 0.008/kWh) or STOAconsumers.

    iv Transmission losses Losses

    are considered or the assumedelectricity units lost in the

    transmission line between thegenerator and the consumer.

    Typically, these are in the range o2 6 %.

    v Wheeling charges These chargesare payable to the distributionlicensee or using the distribution

    network. They are applicable to allpower generating plants connected

    to the distribution grid at 33 kV orbelow and availing open access.

    They are typically in the range o`0.10 0.80/kWh (0.001 0.01/

    kWh, $0.002 0.013/kWh).

    vi Wheeling losses These are the

    losses incurred while transportingelectricity through the distribution

    network. They are determined bythe State Electricity Regulatory

    Commissions (SERCs) or eachconsumer categories and typically

    range rom 4 10 %.

    vii Cross Subsidy Surcharge These

    are charges payable by consumerswho opt or supply through open

    access. In India, industrial andcommercial clients cross subsidize

    electricity rates or agricultural

    and residential consumers. When aconsumer opts or open access, thedistribution licensee loses a high

    value consumer who would havesubsidized low paying consumers.

    This surcharge is designed to makeup or the lost cross subsidy.

    viii SLDC/RLDC charge Theseare charges payable by STOA

    consumers who avail services o

    the state/regional load dispatchcenter (SLDC/RLDC). Such services

    include scheduling, revisions inscheduling and energy accounting.

    They are typically in the range o`1,500 2,500 (19 31, $25 42)

    per day or part o the day.

    The largest impact is that o the Cross

    Subsidy Surcharge (CSS), wheelingcharges and transmission charges.

    CSS, however, is waived o or group

    captive projects. Thereore, we areonly concerned with the wheeling andtransmission charges. These charges

    currently vary between zero and`2.12/kWh (0.03/kWh, $0.04/kWh)

    depending on the state.

    The largest impact,

    amongst all the openaccess charges isthat o the Cross

    Subsidy Surcharge,wheeling charges andtransmission charges.

    Transmission andwheeling losses vary

    signifcantly acrossstates.

    BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013

    Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA

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    As we can see in the Figure 5-2 the

    impact o open access charges andlosses will be the lowest in Andhra

    Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi andthe highest in Maharashtra, Himachal

    Pradesh and Odisha. The overall

    impact can vary between `0.63/kWh- 2.74/kWh (0.008 0.03/kWh, $0.01-

    0.5/kWh).

    Figure 5-2: State-wise costs associated with the open accessmechanism (without any concessional benets, in INR/kWh)

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    Additional cost impact on solar power under the open access mechanism(without any concessional charges)

    Open accesslosses (impactin INR/kWh)

    Open accesscharges

    Delhi

    Madhy

    aPradesh

    Andhr

    aPradesh

    Bihar

    Karnataka

    Utta

    rPradesh

    Chhattisgarh

    TamilNadu

    Gujarat

    WestBengal

    Haryana

    Punjab

    Rajasthan

    Kerala

    Ma

    harashtra

    Himacha

    lPradesh

    Odisha

    Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, or

    example, have completely waived othese charges or the solar projects.

    Odisha and Himachal Pradesh, on theother hand, have the highest charges

    among all states. Transmission andwheeling losses also vary signicantlyacross states.

    A combination o these can vary rom7.74% to 12.25% o the total power

    supplied. The tari orders in Karnatakaand Rajasthan account or the lowest

    losses in India, Punjab and MadhyaPradesh account or the highest.

    In some states,developers can avail

    concessional open access charges.For example, Andhra Pradesh and

    Uttar Pradesh have waived o theopen access charges or solar power

    and Madhya Pradesh, Punjab andGujarat are known to provide some

    concessions in terms o charges and

    losses considered.

    However, according to Central

    Electricity Regulatory Commission(CERC) guidelines, RECs cannot be

    claimed i concessional wheeling anddistribution charges are being availed.

    Thereore, developers must choosebetween the two benets.

    Source:

    BRIDGETOINDIA

    B

    RIDG

    ETOINDIA,2013

    The impact o open

    access charges andlosses will be thelowest in Andhra

    Pradesh, UttarPradesh and Delhiand the highest in

    Maharashtra, HimachalPradesh and Odisha.

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    Additional cost impact on solar power under the open access mechanism(with concessional charges)

    Open accesslosses (impactin INR/kWh)

    Open accesscharges

    States withconcessionalcharges

    UttarPradesh

    AndhraPradesh

    Delhi

    MadhyaPradesh

    Bihar

    Gujarat

    Karnataka

    Chhattisgarh

    Punjab

    TamilNadu

    WestBengal

    Haryana

    Rajasthan

    Kerala

    Maharashtra

    HimachalPradesh

    Orissa

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    Figure 5-3: Cost associated with the open access mechanism orselcted states at currently available concessional charges (inINR/kWh)

    5.4 BENEFITSOF THE GROUPCAPTIVE MODELApart rom the incentives such as a

    waiver o CSS, power banking acilitiesand concessional open access charges,

    group captive consumers also have theollowing benets:

    i The key benet o the group captive

    model is that bankability risks othe o-taker can be minimized by

    spreading it across multiple powerconsumers. Along with that, in case

    a power consumer stops buyingpower, another o-taker can easily

    be accommodated instead.

    ii Smaller power customers can come

    together to build a larger project,

    thereby benetting rom economieso scale.

    iii In some states, it is also possibleor power consumers to get

    additional power entitlement.This means that users are usually

    entitled to draw a certain amounto power rom the sub-station andin case they need more power, they

    would need to get an additionalsanction at a one-time cost or, in

    some cases with revised tari.A group captive model can help

    provide an additional entitlementwithout changing the sanctioned

    load rom the sub-station.

    iv Accelerated depreciation (AD)

    benets and revenue throughthe sale o RECs might provide

    additional nancial incentives.

    Source:BRIDGETOINDIA

    B

    RIDGETOINDIA,2013

    The key beneft o the

    group captive model isthat bankability risks

    o the o-taker can beminimized by spreading

    it across multiplepower consumers.

    Smaller powercustomers can come

    together to build alarger project, thereby

    beneftting romeconomies o scale.

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    ----------------------5Accelerated depreciation reers to any one o several methods by which a company, or nancialaccounting or tax purposes, depreciates a xed asset in such a way that the amount o depreciationtaken each year is higher during the earlier years o an assets lie. As this is subtracted rom thecash fow, it allows the company to avoid paying taxes on the depreciated amount. An accelerateddepreciation o 80% in the rst year is allowed or inrastructure projects under section 80 (I) o theincome tax act.

    Figure 5-4: Financial structuring or a group captive projectwhere the power consumer is not the investor

    Capital cost o the project

    Debt (70%) Equity (30%)

    Preerentialstock (99%)

    100% o the participative,cumulative & convertiblepreerence shares will be

    held by the investor

    Commonstock (1%)

    26% o the commonstock will be held bythe power consumer

    The remaining 74%o the common stock will

    be held by the investor

    5.5 GROUP CAPTIVEPOWER PLANTSUNDER AN OPEXMODELGroup captive solar power projects

    may be an attractive option or captiveconsumers who can not only buy power

    at cheaper rates rom the plant but canalso, by investing into the project, avail

    accelerated depreciation5 benets.

    Third party investors and independentpower producers (IPPs) who wish to

    oer an Operating Expense (OPEX)model (i.e. sale o power rather than

    sale o a power plant) can also availthe AD benets by adopting a certain

    nancial structure.

    In such a case, a Special Purpose

    Vehicle (SPV) can be ormed with

    joint holding o the investor (the

    developer) and the power consumer.The project will be owned by the SPV.

    I a third party investor wants to havethe maximum AD benet, the equity

    structure o the SPV could be as

    ollows:

    i 1% common equity

    ii 99% preerential equity

    In such a structure (reer to the Figure5-4), the power consumer just invests

    the equity portion (30%) o the required26% o the common stock (1%) into

    the SPV. This means that or a 1 MWproject to be set up with a capital

    cost o e.g. ` 70 million (875,000,$1,166,667), the power consumer just

    needs to invest ` 54,600 (683, $910)to make the project eligible or the

    group captive scheme. The investor orIPP can provide the remaining equity.

    BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA

    Third party investors

    and independent powerproducers (IPPs)

    who wish to oer anOperating Expense

    (OPEX) model can alsoavail the group captive

    benefts by adoptinga certain fnancial

    structure.

    The power consumerjust needs to invest

    ` 54,600 (683, $910)to make the project

    eligible or the groupcaptive scheme.

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    There is no rule to speciy the split

    between the preerential stock andthe common stock and it can vary

    rom project to project. The groupcaptive regulations states that the 26%

    minimum share required or the power

    consumer is o the equity (or commonstock).

    Disclaimer: Most project developers

    claim that this fnancial structuring is

    completely legal and ollowed or several

    power projects or other sources o

    power. However, some government

    ofcials are known to have raised

    concerns over the legality o such a

    model.

    As a new SPV is created or thepurpose o the project and does not yet

    have a prot on its balance sheets, itcannot avail the benets o accelerated

    depreciation (AD) on the SPVs assets.

    Based on common understanding o

    the accelerated depreciation benet,it does not make sense or a newly

    created SPV to claim the benet as ithas no existing prot on its balance

    sheets that it can oset against thedepreciation claimed. However, one

    o the project developer pointed usto a Supreme Court ruling which

    said that accelerated depreciationcan be claimed by the part or ull

    owner o the SPV. Based on theinormation provided, we understand

    that Section 32 (I) o the Income TaxAct was amended in 1997 and there

    is a Supreme Court ruling rom the

    case o Seth Banarsi Dass Gupta v.CIT 166 ITR 783, that says that basedon the changes in section 32 (I) o the

    Income Tax Act, an owner or a ractionowner o the SPV is entitled to claim

    depreciation on the asset owned by aSPV. However, based on our discussion

    with tax experts, we do not believethat there is any viable way or a SPV

    to claim AD. Moreover, General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) under the

    Direct Tax Code (DTC), which is likely to

    be implemented rom April 2015, willmake it extremely dicult or anyoneto carry out nancial manipulations

    just rom the taxation perspective.

    Thereore, investors looking to sell

    power (OPEX model) using the groupcaptive mode should not expect to avail

    the benets o AD.

    5.6 THE BUSINESSCASE FOR GROUPCAPTIVE POWERPROJECTSA group captive project must be

    able to supply power to a consumerat a tari that is below the existingalternative cost o procuring power.

    Solar will always compete with othersources o power that can be bought

    using the open access mechanism.However, as the availability and price

    o other sources o power may vary bylocation and circumstances, we have

    not included such a comparison in ouranalysis.

    The main parameters or the analysisare as ollows:

    i For the grid tari or industrial andcommercial consumers,we have

    chosen HT 33 kVA consumer tarisor our analysis.

    ii LTOA transmission charges andwheeling (distribution) charges

    or HT 33 kV consumers wereconverted into `/kWh.

    iii The intra state transmission andwheeling losses are considered and

    the percentage values have beenconverted into `/kWh.

    iv Equally, the open access chargesand losses have been converted intoINR/kWh.

    v The viable solar PPA tari iscalculated or our dierent REC

    scenarios (no RECs sold, 25% o theRECs sold, 50% o the RECs sold

    and 75% o the RECs sold). For eachscenario, we have calculated an

    option with and without AD benet.We have let out the scenario or

    100% o the RECs being sold aswe think that there is no realistic

    possibility o that happening.

    Based on common

    understanding othe accelerated

    depreciation beneft, itdoes not make sense

    or a newly created SPVto claim the beneft as

    it has no existing profton its balance sheets

    Solar will alwayscompete with other

    sources o powerthat can be bought

    using the open accessmechanism.

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    ----------------------6http://bit.ly/mVPsSl

    vi The equity IRR expectation is taken

    as 15%.

    vii Irradiation level has been taken as

    averages or each state.

    The ollowing assumptions have been

    made or the analysis:

    i Wheeling and transmission chargesare usually given in percentage

    terms. We have converted it intoINR/kWh or a better understanding

    and analysis (generation o 1.6million units/MWp installed has

    been used or this conversion).

    ii For all other calculations, the

    capacity utilization actor (CUF) or

    each state has been used as perCERC6.

    iii Size o solar power plant is 10 MW.

    iv RECs traded at the foor price until2017, post which no urther REC

    revenue

    v Plant lie and PPA period o 25

    years

    vi No escalation o the tari

    throughout the PPA period

    vii CAPEX o ` 65 million/MW

    (812,500/MW, $1,083,333/MW).

    viii O&M costs o ` 1 million/MW/year

    (12,500/MW/year, $16,667/MW/year)

    ix Debt Equity ratio o 70:30

    x When no RECs are sold, the

    concessional open access chargeshave been considered as ollows:

    o Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh:transmission and wheeling

    charges exempted

    o Punjab, MadhyaPradesh:concessional wheeling

    losses o 2%

    Based on our modeling, i up to 25% o

    RECs are sold, group captive powerplants can be viable in the ollowing

    states: Delhi and Maharashtra.

    I 50% o the RECs are sold; group

    captive power plants can be viable inthe ollowing additional states: Andhra

    Pradesh, Karnataka, Punjab, Rajasthanand Tamil Nadu.

    I 75% o the RECs are solar, groupcaptive power plants can be viable in

    the ollowing additional states: BiharKerala and West Bengal.

    I up to 25% o RECs are

    sold, group captivepower plants can be

    viable in the ollowingstates: Delhi and

    Maharashtra.

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    Table 5-1: State-wise viability o group captive solar projects in India

    Assumption

    on RECs being

    sold

    State Type o

    consumer

    or whom

    solar power

    through open

    access is vi-

    able

    Viable solar

    PPA tari

    that can be

    oered to

    consumers

    (INR/kWh)

    Existing tari

    being paid by the

    consumers (INR/

    kWh)

    Dierence be-

    tween existing

    tari and viable

    solar PPA tari

    (INR/kWh)

    RECs not

    being availed

    (concessional

    charges or

    open access

    considered,

    where

    applicable)

    With ADDelhi

    Only

    commercial

    7.15 7.5 0.35

    Maharashtra 8.73 9.83 1.1

    Without AD

    Maharashtra 9.43 9.83 0.4

    25% o the

    RECs are being

    sold at foor

    prices

    With AD

    Maharashtra Only

    commercial

    7.91 9.83 1.92

    Delhi Industrial &

    commercial

    6.33 6.6 (industrial),

    7.5 (commercial)

    0.27 (industrial),

    1.17 (commercial)

    Without ADDelhi Only

    commercial

    7.04 7.5 0.46

    Maharashtra 8.61 9.83 1.22

    50% o the

    RECs are being

    sold at foor

    prices

    With AD

    Andhra

    Pradesh

    Onlycommercial

    5.6 6.28 0.68

    Karnataka 6.36 7.00 0.64

    Maharashtra 7.09 9.83 2.74

    Punjab 6.04 6.58 0.54

    Rajasthan 5.93 6.25 0.32

    Tamil Nadu 6.51 7.00 0.49

    Delhi Industrial &commercial

    5.51 6.6 (industrial),7.5 (commercial)

    1.09 (industrial),1.99 (commercial)

    Without AD

    MaharashtraOnly

    commercial

    7.79 9.83 2.04

    Andhra

    Pradesh

    6.27 6.28 0.01

    Delhi Industrial &

    commercial

    6.22 6.6 (industrial),

    7.5 (commercial)

    0.38 (industrial),

    1.28 (commercial)Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA

    B

    RIDGETOINDIA,2013

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    Assumption

    on RECs being

    sold

    State Type o

    consumer

    or whom

    solar power

    through open

    access is vi-able

    Viable solar

    PPA tari

    that can be

    oered to

    consumers

    (INR/kWh)

    Existing tari

    being paid by the

    consumers (INR/

    kWh)

    Dierence be-

    tween existing

    tari and viable

    solar PPA tari

    (INR/kWh)

    75% o theRECs are being

    sold at foor

    prices

    With AD

    AndhraPradesh

    Industrial &commercial

    4.78 5.3 (industrial),6.28

    (commercial)

    0.52 (industrial),1.5 (commercial)

    Bihar 5.27 5.5 (industrial),

    5.5(commercial)

    0.23 (industrial),

    0.23 (commercial)

    Delhi 4.69 6.6 (industrial),

    7.5 (commercial)

    1.91 (industrial),

    2.81 (commercial)

    Maharashtra 6.27 6.33 (industrial),

    9.83(commercial)

    0.06 (industrial),

    3.56 (commercial)

    Punjab 5.22 6.33(industrial) ,6.58(commercial)

    1.11 (industrial),1.36(commercial)

    Rajasthan 5.11 5.50 (industrial),

    6.25(commercial)

    0.39 (industrial),

    1.14 (commercial)

    Karnataka Only

    commercial

    5.54 7.0 1.46

    Kerala 6.04 6.5 0.46

    Tamil Nadu 5.69 7.0 1.31

    West Bengal 5.87 6.2 0.33

    Haryana 5.54 5.85 0.31

    UttarPradesh

    5.63 6.0 0.37

    Without AD

    DelhiIndustrial &

    commercial

    5.4 6.6 (industrial) ,

    7.5 (commercial)

    1.2 (industrial), 2.1

    (commercial)

    Punjab 5.89 6.33 (industrial),

    6.58(commercial)

    0.44(industrial),

    0.69 (commercial)

    Karnataka Onlycommercial

    6.25 7.0 0.75

    Maharashtra 6.97 9.83 2.86

    Tamil Nadu 5.77 7.0 1.23AndhraPradesh

    5.45 6.28 0.83

    Source: BRIDGE TO INDIAB

    RIDGET

    OINDIA,2013

    State

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    5.7 RISKSApart rom all the generic risksassociated with solar power projects

    (reer to our report called, Bankabilityand Debt Financing or Solar Projects

    in India (April 2013) or details)7, thereare some risks specic to the group

    captive model. These risks can becategorized as ollows:

    i Annual revision o open access

    charges and rules Open access

    charges and rules are otenunclear. On top o this, they are

    subject to change every year. Insuch a scenario, assessing the

    nancial viability o a long termproject always has an element o

    uncertainty attached. The risk isheightened in a scenario where

    utilities eel threatened becausetheir high paying customers move

    to other power procurementsources. We have already seen

    utilities in the US complainingabout the impact o solar power on

    their business. In the same manner,the threat perception among Indian

    utilities may also increase, whichmay result in higher open access

    charges. This risk might be reducedby the overall policy support or

    solar power and the power decit inIndia.

    ii Structural changes in the powersupply More secure availability o

    power can be a signicant driveror consumers opting or power

    purchases rom group captive

    plants. The South Indian stateso Andhra Pradesh and TamilNadu, or instance, have very high

    power decits. As a result, thecost o power on the open access

    market regularly reaches as highas ` 8/kWh. However, structuralchanges such as the connection o

    the southern grid to the northerngrid, which is expected soon, can

    signicantly alter the demand

    and supply situation and thus theprices on the open access market.

    BRIDGE TO INDIA believes that the

    overall decit in power availabilitywill continue to increase and that

    taris will continue to rise over themedium and long-term. However,

    structural shits may occur on

    specic locations.

    iii Bankability o the o-taker Incase one o the power consumer

    stops buying power rom thegroup captive project and no other

    consumer is willing to step in, thisamount o power might have to

    be sold to the power distributioncompany at the Average Pooled

    Purchase Cost (APPC) o power,probably at a lower price. Some

    o the projected revenue would belost.

    iv Risk associated with RECs The

    REC market in India has notdeveloped as hoped. Even though

    the RPO mechanism itsel mightpick up, i states are serious about

    implementation, the REC marketwill still remain subdued as the

    dierence in the cost o solar powerand the cost o an REC (essentially

    solar without power) hasincreased signicantly. While solar

    power is now available or third-party sale at ` 7 8/kWh (0.09

    0.10/kWh, $0.12 0.13 /kWh),the base price o an REC, where

    the obligated entity does not evenget the power component is priced

    at a minimum rate o ` 9.3/kWh(0.12/kWh, $0.16/kWh). Moreover,

    under current regulations, most

    REC demand is still expected onlytowards the end o the nancialyear, when some obligated entities

    are looking to meet their RPOs orthe given year. The cash-fow or the

    project has to be managed careully,especially with respect to a debt

    repayment plan. Developers should,thereore, only assume a limited

    sale o RECs in their nancialcalculations and within that too, the

    revenue should be expected to belargely concentrated towards the

    end o the nancial year.

    Open access charges

    are subject to changeevery year. In such ascenario, assessing

    the fnancial viabilityo a long term project

    always has an elemento uncertainty attached.

    Even though the RPOmechanism itsel

    might pick up, i statesare serious about

    implementation, theREC market will still

    remain subdued as thedierence in the cost

    o solar power and thecost o an REC

    ----------------------7 http://bridgetoindia.com/our-reports/india-solar-decision-bries#

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    5.8 CONCLUSIONBased on the above analysis, BRIDGETO INDIA thinks that the group

    captive model is viable in some stateswith/without RECs. Even in the states

    where it is viable, it might not be thebest option or the power consumer

    as solar power would still need tocompete with other available sources

    o power.

    The key benet o the group captive

    model is that it provides a good wayor solar project developers to reach

    the needed scale, it helps reduce thePPA risk by having multiple o-takers

    and it also helps reduce legal risks asthe asset can be located outside o the

    power consumers premises, vis--vis a single customer captive project,

    where the project is typically located atthe customers premises.

    In a number o states, a group captiveplant might be able to sell solar power

    at taris o around ` 5.50 7.00/kWh (0.06 0.07/kWh, $0.09 0.12/

    kWh),up to 50% o the RECs can be

    sold. Currently, the sale o powerthrough the group captive and openaccess mechanism is viable without

    RECs only in Delhi and Maharashtra.Until now, none o the solar projects

    have taken group captive route. Statessuch as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,

    Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Naduwould become viable, i 50% o the

    RECs can be sold at the foor price till2017.

    There are several scenarios with a

    slight deviation rom the above analysisthat can help this model become a

    more viable business proposition.These are as ollows:

    i An encouraging development isthat open access charges are

    being waived o under most newsolar policies. We have already

    noted this in Andhra Pradesh

    and Uttar Pradesh, where openaccess charges have been waivedo entirely. Madhya Pradesh and

    Punjab also oer concessional

    open access charges. We expect

    this trend will continue. I CERCallows RECs to be availed along

    with these concessional charges,as Andhra Pradesh has petitioned

    it to , the equation would change

    considerably in avor o the groupcaptive model over co-locatedprojects.

    ii In the above analysis, no escalationhas been considered. However,

    most industry observers believethat power prices in India will

    continue to rise. In the wake odebt-structuring plans or the state

    distribution companies, drasticupward tari revisions can be

    expected. We have already seenupward tari revisions in excess

    o 30% in states such as TamilNadu and Uttar Pradesh over the

    last year alone. I a developer canconvince power consumers to agreeto an annual increment in the price

    o solar power even lower tariscan be oered to the consumers.

    Several projects or third-party saleo power are currently being planned

    across India under the group captivemodel. Judging by the taris being

    oered, many o these projects areexpected to be considering an overly

    optimistic scenario or the revenuethrough RECs. We expect that such

    projects will not see the light o the dayas it will be extremely dicult or them

    to arrange debt. Whether or not groupcaptive projects become mainstream

    in India is still an open question.

    Compared to the projects on the powerconsumers location, currently, theopen access charges are too high to

    provide or any real benet o scale.The key to the short to medium term

    success or such projects is regulatorysupport in terms o lower open access

    charges or solar power plants. Mostnew policies, are already taking the

    steps in this right direction. I morestates ollow this trend, we can expect

    to see an increased viability or thegroup captive model in the uture.

    Currently, the sale

    o power through thegroup captive and open

    access mechanism isviable without RECs

    only in Delhi andMaharashtra.

    The key to the short tomedium term success

    or such projects isregulatory support in

    terms o lower openaccess charges or

    solar power plants.

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    6. ANNEXURE6.1 GLOSSARY OF TERMS

    AD Accelerated Depreciation

    ADD- Anti-dumping duties

    APPC Average Pooled Purchase Cost

    CAPEX Capital Expenditure

    CERC Central Electricity Regulatory Commission

    CSP Concentrated Solar Power

    CUF Capacity Utilization Factor

    DCR- Docmestic Content Requirement

    DISCOM State Distribution Company

    EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction

    FiT Feed-in-Tari

    IPP Independent Power Producers

    LoI Letter o Intent

    LTOA Long Term Open Access

    MTOA Medium Term Open Access

    MNRE Ministry o New and Renewable Energy

    NHPC National Hydro Power Corporation

    NSM Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission

    O&M Operation and Maintenance

    OPEX Operational Expense

    PoC Point o Connection

    PPA Power Purchase Agreement

    PV Photovoltaic

    REC Renewable Energy Certicate

    RS Request or Selection

    RLDC Regional Load Dispatch Centre

    RPO Renewable Purchase Obligation

    SERC State Energy Regulatory Commission

    SLDC Regional Load Dispatch Centre

    SPV Special Purpose Vehicle

    STOA Short Term Open Access

    SECI Solar Energy Corporation o India

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    BRIDGE TO INDIA is a consultingcompany with an entrepreneurialapproach based in New Delhi,Munich and Hamburg. Foundedin 2008, the company ocuses onrenewable energy technologies inthe Indian market. BRIDGE TO INDIAoers market intelligence, strategicconsulting and project developmentservices to Indian and internationalinvestors, companies and institutions.Through customized solutionsor its clients, BRIDGE TO INDIAcontributes to a sustainable world byimplementing the latest technologicaland systemic innovations where theirimpact is the highest.

    [email protected]

    www.bridgetoindia.com

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