BrianR.O’Connor,MAI,CREPrincipal,O’ConnorConsultingGroup,LLC

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Housing Cycle: New Owner Demand vs. Renter Demand (Units)

Net Apartment Demand New Construction SF & Condo Sales Poly. (Net Apartment Demand)

New Owner Housing DemandPeaked in 2004

at 9,300 Units Sold

Forecast

1980s Renter Housing Boom

Renter Demand Peaked at 13,000 Units in 1989.

Owner Housing Boom/

Bubble

2010 Renter Demand at 9,849 Units

Source:NWMLS,OCG

Dot-com Spike

(King and Snohomish Counties 1980-2015, Forecast 2016-2018)

9/11 Dip

2008 Recession

2014 Renter Demand at 11,446 Units

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} Pineand2nd◦ DevelopedbyEquityResidential.◦ Locatedat204PineStintheDowntownmarketarea.◦ 300,000SFtowercontaining40storiesthatwillhave398units.◦ Streetlevelretailandfourlevelsofabovegradeandfourlevelsofbelowgradeparking(250parkingstalls).◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyJune2017.

} KinectsTower◦ DevelopedbySecurityProperties.◦ Locatedat1823MinorAveintheBelltownmarketarea.◦ Itisa40storytowercontaining356units.◦ Streetlevelretailincludingarestaurantwithanoutsidediningarea.◦ Oneoftheprojectamenitiesisarooftopindoorpool.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyApril2017.

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} Tower12◦ DevelopedbyContinentalProperties.◦ Locatedat20012ndAveintheBelltownmarketarea.◦ Itisa34storytowercontaining314units.◦ Fullamenitypackageincludingrooftopdeck,theaterroom,fitnesscenter,saunaandhottub,andalibrary.◦ 69%oftheunitshaveawaterview.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyMarch2017.Pre-leasinghasbegunasofFebruary2017.

} StratusTower◦ DevelopedbyGIDDevelopmentGroup.◦ Locatedat901LenoraStintheBelltownmarketarea.◦ Itisa41storytowercontaining396units.◦ LocatedacrossthestreetfromAmazon’snewSouthCampus.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyJuly2017.

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} Tilt49◦ DevelopedbyTouchstone.◦ Locatedat1812BorenAveintheBelltownmarketarea.◦ Itisa37storytowercontaining393units.◦ Alsohas11storiesofofficespace.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyJune2017.

} WestEdgeTower◦ DevelopedbyUrbanVisions(GregSmith).◦ Locatedat14302nd AveintheDowntownmarketarea.◦ Itisa39storytowercontaining340units.◦ Theprojectwillhavea“skybar”restaurantonthe8th floor.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyAugust2017.

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} Clise◦ DevelopedbyCliseProperties.◦ Locatedat22028th AveintheBelltownmarketarea.◦ Itisa40storytowercontaining447units.◦ Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor389parkingstallsand231bicycles.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyAugust2017.

} 970Denny◦ DevelopedbyHollandPartnerGroup.◦ Locatedat970DennyWayintheLakeUnionmarketarea.◦ Itisa40storytowercontaining468units.◦ Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor374parkingstalls.◦ Therewillbe15,098SFofretail.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyNovember2018.

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} PotalaTower◦ DevelopedbyBinjiangTowerCorpandMolaskyGroup.◦ Locatedat21164th AveintheBelltownmarketarea.◦ Itisa40storytowercontaining339apartmentunitsand142hotelrooms.◦ Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor329parkingstalls.◦ Theoriginalplansincludedarooftopdeckwithanoutdoormovietheater.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyNovember2017.

} UrbanGreenVilla◦ DevelopedbyChainquiDevelopment.◦ Locatedat24013rd AveintheBelltownmarketarea.◦ Itisa12storybuildingcontaining132apartmentunits◦ Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor73parkingstalls.◦ Thebuildingwillhave4,824S.F.ofretailspace.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyMarch2019.

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} Cyrene◦ DevelopedbyMackUrban.◦ Locatedat1301WesternAveintheDowntownmarketarea.◦ Itisa16storybuildingcontaining169apartmentunits◦ Theprojectwillhaveparkingfor130vehicles.◦ Thebuildingwillhave3,600S.F.ofretailspace.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyMarch2017.

} GreystarsiteII◦ DevelopedbyGreystar.◦ Locatedat413/425FairviewAveNintheLakeUnionmarketarea.◦ Itisa24storybuildingcontaining239apartmentunits.Thereisalsoamidrisecomponenthousinganadditional181units.◦ TheprojectisapproximatelyoneblockfromAmazon’smaincampus.◦ Thebuildingwillhave10,000S.F.ofretailspace.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyNovember2018.

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} ColumbiaPacificTower◦ DevelopedbyColumbiaPacificAdvisors.◦ Locatedat1001BroadwayintheFirstHillmarketarea.◦ Itisa16storybuildingcontaining265apartmentunits.◦ Theprojectwillhavea40,000S.F.WholeFoodsMarket.◦ Thebuildingwillhave355undergroundparkingspaces.◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelySeptember2017.

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PropertyName #ofUnits Type Stories CompletionMartinSeligtower/Intracorp 45 C 11-story 2020McFarlaneHarrisonproject 292 A 25-story 2020ModernGreen/Daniels 244 A 26-story 2019

CreateWorld/Woodpartners,2ndandStewart 266 A/C 40-story 2020DennyCenterSiteTower,BOSA 442 A 41-story 2020

8thAveMixed-use 98 A/C/H 14-story 2019CambriaHotel&Suites 50 H/A 15-story 2019

MackUrbanSLU 430 A 43-story 2021IconTower,Laconia 400 A 43-story 2020

VulcanEighth 294 A 24-story 202080SLU,Vulcan 80 A/O 14-story 2020

Vulcan(Westlake) 258 A 16-story 2020Antiochsite,HBmanagement 1096 A two40-story 2021

Vulcan(ValleySite) 218 A/O 16-story 2020CrescentHeightTowers 943 A two39-story 2021

TarragonSLU 158 A 15-story 2020SeligTower2 330 O/A 36-story 2021

CliseTowerII,III 638 A two40-story 2021RainierSquare 214 H/O/A 12&59-story 2020

Jewel,5thandVirginia,Douglaston 431 H/A 47-story 2020

ProposedSeattleCoreHighRises

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PropertyName #ofUnits Type Stories Completion2ndandWall,oldMcGuiresite 283 A 24-story 2020

1800Terry,Seawest 425 A/C 38-story 2021SeligTower3,OldFederalReserveBldg 192 O/A 48-story 2020

VulcanDiscoveryCentersite 470 A/C/O 41-story 2021H5Capital,OldSeattleTimessite 421 A 41-story 2021Altitude/5thandStewart,Stanford 236 H/C/A 49-story 2021

Nexus 382 Condo 40-story 2020160SLU 160 A 24-story 2020

FormerWinterGardenTheatre 60 A 15-story 2020129Belltown 126 A/H 17-story 2020

BentallKennedy/Westbank,3rdandVirginia 433 A 42-story 2021DennySite,Westbank 1050 A two38-story 2020

OnniBlock1 843 A/C two24-story 2020OnniBlock2 1179 A/C two40-story 20204thandBell 354 A/C 24-story 2021

DaLiCondoTower 168 C 15-story 2021Vulcan(TerrySite) 368 A 16-story 2021

4thandColumbia-Crescentheights 893 H/O/A/C 100+story 2022N/SOverTrackDev,CivicSquare 138 O/A/C 42-story 20222ndandMarion(UrbanVisions) 160 O/A 60-story 2022

ProposedSeattleCoreHighRises

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PropertyName #ofUnits Type Stories CompletionConventionCenterExpansion 438 A/O 29-story 2023FormerShillaRestaurantSite 330 A 36-story 2021

5th&Lenora,Vulcan 470 A 40-story 2021348SLU,Greystar 348 A 28-story 20218thandPine,Fana 539 A/H 50-story 2021

HollandFirstHillTower 207 A 17-story 2019TownHallsite,Lennar(North) 565 A two32-story 2021

FryePkglot,Westbank 440 A two33-story 2021ColumbiaPacificSenior 237 SH 24story 2020

Alecta-Lowe/DanielsRE/Columbiasite 287 A/C 30-story 2021SFPCsite,Benthall-Kennedy/Lennar(South) 300 A four15-story 2022

Thousand8Expansion,2towers 256 A 17&15-story 2021TotalsUnitsProposed 19,685

ProposedSeattleCoreHighRises

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2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%1.9%

2.5%

3.6%

4.9%

5.8%

6.6% 6.8%

7.3%

3.9% 3.0%2.8%

2.9%

3.5% 2.8%

3.9%

3.3%

2.7%

4.3%

5.8% 6.0%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

0

500

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3,000

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Apartment Market Balance History & Forecast - Seattle Core

Direct Demand New Supply Winter Vacancy Rates Summer Vacancy Rate

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MonthlyExpenses Renter MonthlyExpenses 20%Down 10%Down 5%DownPurchasePrice $625,000 $625,000 $625,000

TotalDownPayment ($125,000) ($62,500) ($31,250)LoanAmount $500,000 $562,500 $593,750

Rent/Month $2,500 MortgagePayment $2,460 $2,767 $2,921UtilityCharges $60 HOA($0.82/SF) $779 $779 $779

Parking $150 Taxes $792 $792 $792RentersInsurance $20 Insurance* $67 $536 $562

TaxSavings ($525) ($591) ($623)TotalMonthlyExpense $2,730 TotalMonthlyExpense $3,572 $4,283 $4,430

TotalPerSF $4.37 TotalPerSF $5.72 $6.85 $7.09DifferenceinCosttoBuy $842 $1,553 $1,700

DifferenceinCosttoBuy(perSF) $1.35 $2.48 $2.72*InsurancefortheCondobuyerincludeshomeownersinsuranceandPMIwhenapplicable

MonthlyExpensesforaCondominiumBuyercomparedwiththatofanApartmentRenter625SquareFootUnit

ApartmentRenter CondoBuyerwitha30yr.Mortgage@4.25%Interest

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MonthlyExpenses Renter MonthlyExpenses 20%Down 10%Down 5%DownPurchasePrice $950,000 $950,000 $950,000

TotalDownPayment $190,000 $95,000 $47,500LoanAmount $760,000 $855,000 $902,500

Rent/Month $3,610.00 MortgagePayment $3,739 $4,206 $4,440UtilityCharges $60.00 HOA($0.82/SF) $779 $779 $779

Parking $150.00 Taxes $792 $792 $792RentersInsurance $20.00 Insurance* $67 $780 $819

TaxSavings ($907) ($1,020) ($1,077)TotalMonthlyExpense $3,840.00 TotalMonthlyExpense $4,470 $5,536 $5,753

TotalPerSF $4.04 TotalPerSF $4.71 $5.83 $6.06DifferenceinCosttoBuy $630 $1,696 $1,913

DifferenceinCosttoBuy(perSF) $0.66 $1.79 $2.01*InsurancefortheCondobuyerincludeshomeownersinsuranceandPMIwhenapplicable

950SquareFootUnitMonthlyExpensesforaCondominiumBuyercomparedwiththatofanApartmentRenter

ApartmentRenter CondoBuyerwitha30yr.Mortgage@4.25%Interest

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