Brian Ó Gallachóir Opening Statement - Climate Heads of Bill

7/28/2019 Brian Gallachir Opening Statement - Climate Heads of Bill

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EnvironmentalResearchInstituteEnergyPolicyandModellingTeamUniversityCollegeCork,Cork,IrelandT+353214903037F+353214276648Eb.ogallachoir@ucc.ieWwww.ucc.ie/serg/brian.html

OpeningStatementtoOireachtasJoint

CommitteeonEnvironment,Cultureand

theGaeltachtCommitteeon

OutlineHeadsoftheClimateActionand

LowCarbonDevelopmentBill2013

by

Dr.BrianGallachir

EnergyPolicyandModellingGroupEnvironmentalResearchInstitute,

UniversityCollegeCork

July2nd2013.


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IntroductionI am delighted to address this Oireachtas Committee relating to your deliberations on the OutlineHeads of the Climate Action and Low-Carbon Development Bill. This is a very important and urgent

topic internationally and for Ireland and I welcome the opportunity to share with you some of theinsights gained from my research.

The most recent Assessment Report from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)[1] concludes that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observedincrease in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observedincrease in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) concentrations. Growing worldwide concernsregarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, resulted in the Cancun Agreementsin 2010 that established a global commitment to a maximum temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsiusabove pre-Industrial levels, requiring deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve

this goal [2].

A recent report from the International Energy Agency [3] concludes that the world is not on track tomeet this 2C target. Global GHG emissions are increasing rapidly and, in May 2013, carbon-dioxide(CO2) levels in the atmosphere exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time in several hundredmillennia. The weight of scientific analysis tells us that our climate is already changing and that we

should expect extreme weather events (such as storms, floods and heat waves) to become morefrequent and intense, as well as increasing global temperatures and rising sea levels. Policies thathave been implemented, or are now being pursued, suggest that the long-term average temperatureincrease is more likely to be between 3.6 C and 5.3 C (compared with pre-industrial levels), with

most of the increase occurring this century. The report further states that this 2C target remainstechnically feasible, though extremely challenging. To keep open a realistic chance of meeting the 2C target, intensive action is required before 2020, the date by which a new international climateagreement is due to come into force. Energy is at the heart of this challenge: the energy sectoraccounts for around two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions, as more than 80% of global energyconsumption is based on fossil fuels.

Within the EU, the short term GHG emissions reduction targets for 2020 (20% reduction in GHGemissions relative to 1990 levels) have been allocated to Member States (MS) under an effort sharingdecision [4,5], but not the longer term target (805 95% reduction in GHG emissions relative to1990 levels by 2050). However, some Member States have already established or are planning long

1 IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the FourthAssessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY,USA.

2 UNFCCC 2011 Report of the Conference of the Parties on its sixteenth session, held in Cancun from 29 November to10 December 2010 Addendum Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its sixteenth session

(FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1)3 IEA 2013 Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map World Energy Outlook Special Report available fromwww.worldenergyoutlook.org/energyclimatemap


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term emissions targets. The United Kingdom has legislated for an 80% GHG emissions reductiontarget while France is planning to reduce emissions by 75% over the period 1990-2050 [4, 5].

I lead an Energy Policy and Modelling Group in UCCs Environmental Research Institute, a team oftwelve researchers who carry out energy modelling to increase the evidence base for energy and

climate policy. We have built the only software model in Ireland that provides insights into IrelandsGHG emissions for the period to 2050. I have been involved in energy policy and modelling researchfor 23 years and am currently the elected Chair of the International Energy Agency ExecutiveCommittee for the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (IEA-ETSAP). In addition, Iam an elected member of the Royal Irish Academy Climate Change Sciences Committee. I havespent many years as strategic advisor to Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland and haverepresented Ireland on EU Committees relating to energy statistics and energy modeling. I amcurrently the highest ranking Google Scholarinternationallyin energy modeling. This statement is

based on analysis carried out [6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14] out within my research group that

provides an evidence base to underpin your discussions regarding Climate legislation.

KeyPointsThere are five key points I would like to raise that will hopefully inform your deliberations

1. Ireland has distinct challenges in transitioning to a low carbon economy2. Policy to date has been effective in isolated areas but insufficient3. Growth in beef and dairy farming is not aligned with developing a low carbon economy4. We should be ambitious and realistic5. We need more evidence based policy

4 CCC, 2008. Building a low-carbon economy the UKs contribution to tackling climate change. Published by TheStationery Office, London, United Kingdom, .

5 Environment Round Table, 2009. French Climate Plan. Le Grenelle Environment, 24.6 Chiodi A., Gargiulo M., Rogan F., Deane J.P., Lavigne D., Rout U.K. and Gallachir B.P. 2013Modelling the

impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland's energy system Energy Policy Vol53 pages 169 - 189

7 Dineen D. and Gallachir B. P. 2011Modelling the Impacts of Building Regulations and a Property Bubble onResidential Space and Water Heating. Energy and Buildings Volume 43 Issue 1 Pages 166 - 178

8 Smyth B. M., Gallachir B. P., Korres N. E. and Murphy J. D. 2010 Can we meet targets for biofuels and renewableenergy in transport given the constraints imposed by policy in agriculture and energy? Journal of Cleaner

Production Volume 18 Issues 16-17 Pages 1671 - 16859 Glynn J., Chiodi A., Gargiulo M., Deane P., Gallachir B. Optimum Irish energy system in an oil constrained future.Proc 12th IAEE European Energy Conference, Energy Challenge and Environmental Sustainability, 9-12September 2012, Venice, Italy

10 Rogan F., Chiodi A., Gargiulo M., Deane J.P., Bazilian M., Gallachir B.P. 2013Modelling the impacts of carboncapture and storage as a carbon mitigation technology. Energy Policy (submitted December 2012)

11 Chiodi A., Gargiulo M., Lavigne D., Rout U.K. and Gallachir B.P. 2012Modelling the impacts of challenging2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Irelands energy systemEnergy (Submitted July 2012)

12 Rogan F. and Gallachir B.P. 2011Ex-Post Evaluation of a Residential Energy Efficiency Policy Measure UsingEmpirical Data, Proceedings of the European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee) SummerSchool, 611 June 2011,Belambra Presqu'le de Giens, France.

13 Dineen D., Rogan F., Cronin W. and Gallachir B. P. 2011Modelling residential energy savings due to IrelandsNational Retrofit Programme using DEAP and LEAP. Proc International Energy Workshop 2011 Stanford

University July 6 -9 2011, Stanford CA.14 Daly H.E. and Gallachir B. P. 2012 Future Energy and Emissions Policy Scenarios in Ireland for Private CarTransportEnergy Policy Vol 51, Pages 172 - 183.


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1IrelandhasdistinctchallengesintransitioningtoalowcarboneconomyIreland faces considerable challenges in transitioning towards a low carbon economy. Firstly, in the

period 1990 2010, Irelands GHG emissions have grown while EU emissions have declined.Secondly, Ireland has a relatively high share of GHG emissions from agriculture, in particular sectors

that are export driven and have little scope for emissions reduction.

Regarding the first point, Figure 1 shows that Irelands emissions in 2005 (2010) were 24% (10%)above 1990 levels while EU emissions 8% (16%) below 1990 levels. If we reference emissionsreductions against 1990 levels rather than 2005 levels results in a very different scale of challenge.For example, within the EU a 20% reduction by 2020 relative to 1990 levels is equivalent to a 13%reduction relative to 2005 levels. In Ireland by contrast a 20% reduction relative to 1990 levels isequivalent to a 36% reduction relative to 2005 levels.

Figure 1 Ireland's GHG trends have been different to EU trends

Secondly, Ireland has distinct challenges relating to agriculture GHG emissions, namely i) theamount and ii) mitigation potential. GHG emissions comprise essentially emissions associated withenergy (for transport, heat and electricity) and agriculture. As shown in Figure 2, agriculturerepresents approx 30% of total GHG in Ireland compared with just 10.5% for the EU.

The agri-food sector contributes approx 7% to Irelands economy (in terms of GDP), and representsIrelands largest indigenous industry. The largest contribution to GHG emissions is from the beef anddairy sector, most of which (over 80%) is exported. Beef and dairy farming is particularlychallenging in terms of climate mitigation with very few options for emissions reduction. Hence, it isvery difficult to reconcile growth in beef and dairy farming with a low carbon economy.

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Figure 2 Ireland has a high share of GHG emissions from agriculture (2010 data sourceEEA)

The combination of these two contextual points (emissions growth to 2005 and the significance ofagriculture) results in a considerable challenge for Ireland to meet deep emissions reduction targetsfor 2050.

2PolicytodatehasbeeneffectiveinisolatedareasbutinsufficientIn a number of key areas Ireland has shown that carefully tailored policies can have a significantimpact, for example Irelands wind energy strategy since 2000 and changes to private car taxation

introduced in 2008. While acknowledging the success of these individual policies (other examplesalso exist but in some cases their effect is not yet evident, including changes in building regulationsto improve the energy performance of new homes), the key problem is that these are isolatedexamples and are not evident across the entire economy.

In 1999 the Green Paper on Sustainable Energy established a target to increase renewable electricitygeneration capacity by 500 MW in the period 2000 2005, with wind energy delivering the bulk ofthis (i.e. 450 MW). This was not the first target or policy support available in Ireland for wind energy

but the period 2000 2005 can be characterised as a period of increased ambition [15].This policydocument also pointed to the challenges facing renewable energy and committed to addressing these

separately through the establishment of aRenewable Energy Strategy Group. The work of this groupwas key to transforming wind energy from a peripheral policy issue to one that achieved almost fullstakeholder support. There was a combination of factors (membership, focus, processes andrecommendations of the group), which together paved the way for delivering an ambitious windenergy programme, which resulted in wind energy increasing from 1.0% of electricity generation in2000 to 16% in 2011, as shown in Figure 3.

15 Gallachir B. P., Bazilian M. & McKeogh E. J. 2009 Wind Energy Policy Development in Ireland A CriticalAnalysis. Chapter 8 in Wind Power and Power Politics ISBN: 978-0-415-96130-1 Routledge Press


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Figure 3 Wind generated electricity in GWH and as a share of total electricity generation -

Source SEAI

Another successful policy instrument was the change in car taxation [vehicle registration tax (VRT)and annual motor tax (AMT)] with effect from 1st July 2008. The new system is based on specificCO2 emissions (i.e. grams of CO2 per kilometre driven) rather than engine size [16]. This type of

policy is one of the three main pillars of policy that can focus on reducing energy related emissions,the other two being the labelling guidelines and consumer information campaigns and the voluntarycommitments of the European, Japanese and Korean associations of auto manufacturers. The impactof the new VRT and AMT policy in Ireland has attracted international interest from the EUODYSSEE network [17] and the International Energy Agency [18].

Figure 4 shows the change in the weighted average CO2 performance of new private cars entering thefleet in Ireland over the period 2000 2012. The impact of the car taxation change is clearly evidentin the data since 2008. The average CO2 performance of new private cars prior to 2008 was 166

gCO2/km and this reduced to below 130 gCO2/km by 2011.

16 DEHLG, 2010. Motor Tax General Information.17 Howley, M., Gallachir, B.P., Dennehy, E. 2009 The greening of the vehicle registration tax (VRT) and the annual

motor system in Ireland. . Proc ODYSSEE Workshop May 18- 19 2009, Paris, France.18 Howley, M., Gallachir, B.P. 2009 Data Gaps and Barriers - Experience from Ireland. . Proceedings of IEAWorkshop on Data, Analysis and Policy: the Three Faces of Energy Efficiency Indicators, Paris.

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Figure 4 Weighted average CO2 performance of new private cars in Ireland - Source SEAI

As previously mentioned, energy accounts for the bulk of GHG emissions (representing 66% inIreland and 80% EU-wide). These successful policies do not extend across the full energy system. Inenergy policy discourse for example, the discussions and policy focus is typically limited toelectricity and in particular wind energy. However, electricity represents less than 20% of energyuse, with the bulk of energy use accounted for by transport and heating, which are largely ignored.

As a result, Irelands energy system continues to be dominated by fossil fuels (representing over90%) with associated high import dependency (88%) raising concerns regarding energy security inaddition to the challenges of transitioning to a low carbon economy. What is clearly needed is a

policy plan for the full energy system.

The focus of our modelling research is to adopt a full energy systems approach. We have developedscenarios for Ireland focussing on the transition to a low carbon economy by 2050. We havequantified the costs and identified the technology change required to achieve this goal. Our resultsalso help to inform Irelands response to shorter term 2020) pathways and provide an evidence base

to develop appropriate national targets for Ireland (and to engage in any EU Directive negotiationsfor 2030).

3GrowthinbeefanddairyfarmingisnotalignedwithdevelopingalowcarboneconomyIreland has committed to expanding the agri-food sector under the Food Harvest 2020 strategy as akey element in the pathway to economic recovery. At the same time, Ireland is committed to

becoming a low carbon economy. As previously mentioned, the scope for achieving deep GHGemissions reduction in beef and dairy farming is very limited without reducing the size of the

national herd. Within the energy system, we can transition to low carbon fuels. There are mitigationoptions available in tillage farming. However, it is very difficult to prevent a cow from belching.

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GHG emissions are accounted for and targets are set based on GHG emissions production, ratherthan emissions consumption. Although most of our beef and dairy products are exported, theemissions are attributed to Ireland rather than to the country where the products are consumed. It isworth pointing out here that this clearly also applies to a lot of energy intensive products that we

import and consume (for example cars, steel, etc.). In this case these products are consumed here butthe emissions are attributed to the country of manufacture, rather than to us.

Another issue that arises here is that we in Ireland are very proficient at producing beef and dairyproducts. Our beef and dairy products have a relatively low level of carbon intensity (grams of CO2eqper liter of milk or kg of steak). If Ireland stops producing beef and dairy products, the likely impactis that these products will be developed elsewhere with a higher level of carbon intensity (this issometimes referred to as carbon leakage). The net effect would be that we find it easier to become alow carbon economy but that global GHG emissions rise to a higher level than they would haveotherwise done.

There is another challenging policy issue associated with the distribution of effort in GHG emissionsreduction between energy and agriculture. We have built scenarios where we assume agriculturecannot readily deliver deep emissions cuts and impose an additional burden on the energy system.For example, to meet the 2020 targets for emissions reduction, we assume agriculture GHGemissions are aligned with the growth in the agri-food sector to 2020. The net effect of this is that theenergy system has to, by 2020, achieve emissions reductions that are more than 30% below 2005levels. This means we will need more renewable energy to meet our needs for transport, heating andelectricity. However, if we use more biofuels to enable the agriculture sector to generate GHGemissions in line with Food Harvest 2020, separate to the issue of additional costs, to what extent

will this result in land-use competition issues that may in turn impact on Food Harvest 2020?

4WeshouldbeambitiousandyetrealisticThe results of our research using the Irish TIMES Energy Systems Model [19] that we developed,suggests that we do have technology options to meet deep emissions cuts in the energy system. TheIrish TIMES model provides a range of energy system configurations for Ireland that will deliver

projected energy service demand requirements optimised to least cost and subject to a range of policyconstraints for the period out to 2050. It provides a means of testing energy policy choices andscenarios, and assessing the implications for a) the Irish economy (technology choices, prices,

output, etc.), for b) Irelands energy mix and energy dependence, and for c) the environment, mainlyfocussing on greenhouse gas emissions. It is used to both examine baseline projections, and to assessthe implications of emerging technologies and mobilising alternative policy choices such as meetingrenewable energy targets and carbon mitigation strategies.

There is a significant challenge in quantifying the costs of climate mitigation policies, in determininghow these costs should be allocated and in developing an effective mechanism to ensure that thecosts are then allocated as they should be. We have established some useful inputs to discussions andanalysis using the Irish TIMES model. One result, the CO2 marginal abatement cost associated with

19 Gallachir B.P., Chiodi A., Gargiulo M., Deane J.P., Lavigne D. and Rout U.K. 2013Irish TIMES Energy SystemsModel (CCRP 2008 3.1). Report published by EPA.


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different levels of low carbon ambition can readily be extracted from the model results, i.e. the costof delivering the last (marginal) tonne of abatement in a particular scenario.

The model results from the 2050 scenarios indicate that these deep emissions cuts are technicallypossible, while also meeting our future energy service demands by incorporating radical changes in

energy demand side and supply side technologies. The results point to which energy efficiency andrenewable energy technologies will have a determining role to deliver the target at least cost.

Our analysis suggests that achieving an 80% reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2050(relative to 1990 levels) sees considerable electrification of the energy system. Electrification oftransport starts to take place in 2030, as does electrification of residential heating. Electrification ofheat in particular but also of transport results in the share of energy use delivered by electricityincreasing from current levels of 19% to 31% in 2050. This has significant implications for ourelectricity network infrastructure. It is worth noting however that this also means that 70% ofIrelands energy needs are still delivered of non-electric direct transport and thermal energy usage.

Renewable energy in 2050 grows from current levels of 6.5% of energy consumption to 72% in2050. The main renewable energy resources used are biomass (biodiesel, bioethanol and biogas fortransport and biomass for heat) and wind.

The modelling results also suggest a significant increase in marginal abatement costs by 2050 from2000273 to 20001308 for scenarios where we achieve 80% to 95% of energy-related CO2.Forcomparison in terms of the scale these costs represent, current level of carbon tax in Ireland is

20/tCO2.

An ambitious but achievable goal for Ireland for GHG emissions reduction is to achieve a 50%reduction target for Ireland relative to 1990 levels comprising an 80% reduction in emissions in theenergy system by 2050 coupled with maintaining GHG emissions levels for agriculture at 2020levels by 2050.

5WeneedmoreevidencebasedpolicyMitigation strategies for deep cuts in emissions require significant financial investment and thedevelopment of strategies based on poor information and analysis will be expensive and wasteful.Policy makers require comprehensive, robust, knowledge based information to inform their decisions

on how to meet these targets in a manner that will most benefit the Irish economy. In particular givenIrelands current economic difficulties, it is vital that the information base, which feeds into policydecisions is greatly improved as a matter of urgency.

According to the Research Prioritisation Steering Group,Research plays an important role inhelping Government to achieve its policy objectives ... facilitates us in meeting our objectives at

minimum cost.... Research programmes designed to inform the policy process play a vital role in

agenda setting and increase the likelihood of translating important findings in relation to ....,

environment and other research domains into feasible and implementable services and systems. In a

number of areas, policy is negotiated with the European Union, out of which emerge obligations,

regulations and income transfers. The quality of our negotiating effort is directly shaped by thequality of the evidence-based research that we bring to the negotiating table. High quality research,


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4. The EU Low Carbon Roadmap suggests that by 2030 that across the EU, we should have reachGHG levels that are 40% below 1990 levels. This is equivalent a 35% reduction relative to2005. Since Irelands GHG emissions grew while the EU emissions reduced over the period1990 2005, a 36% GHG reduction relative to 2005 in Ireland is equivalent to 20% reduction

relative to 1990. Hence, a 40% GHG 2030 reduction target for EU is consistent with a 20%GHG 2030 reduction target for Ireland.5. According to the Research Prioritisation Steering GroupResearch plays an important role in

helping Government to achieve its policy objectives ... facilitates us in meeting our objectives

at minimum cost.... Research programmes designed to inform the policy process play a vital

role in agenda setting and increase the likelihood of translating important findings in relation

to ...., environment and other research domains into feasible and implementable services and

systems. In a number of areas, policy is negotiated with the European Union, out of which

emerge obligations, regulations and income transfers. The quality of our negotiating effort is

directly shaped by the quality of the evidence-based research that we bring to the negotiating

table. High quality research, informing both our negotiating position and then the

implementation of decisions, is required if we are to succeed. The results underlying basis forIrelands obligations under the Effort Sharing Decision 2009/406/EC to reduce non-ETS GHGemissions by 20% below 2005 levels are evidence of this (the cost of the misinformed targetquantified as close to 3.6 billion). Our negotiating effort at the time was diminished becauseof the absence of a modelling tool such as Irish TIMES. As we enter negotiations regardingIrelands contribution to 2030 and 2050 EU targets for energy efficiency, renewable energyand climate mitigation, this modelling tool provides the capacity to improve both ournegotiating position and then the implementation of decisions.

6. The results for renewable heat point highlight the importance of developing reliable productionchains to allow this potential to be achieved. Furthermore the Irish TIMES model indicatesnegligible contributions of ocean energy in the electricity sector by 2020 due to their highcosts, while EVs will have a marginal role in the transport sector, which instead relies onincreasing shares of biofuels. The results also point to half of biofuels in transport coming from

biogas, while the NREAP points to biodiesel and bioethanol, suggesting that this focus shouldbe re-examined.

7. The results from the 2020 non-ETS scenariossuggest that significant non-ETS emissionsreductions may be achieved within the residential, transport and services sector through twokey pathways, namely electrification of heating in buildings (i.e. shifting CO2 emissions fromthe non-ETS sectors to the ETS sectors (namely electricity generation) and significantlyincreasing the amount biofuels used in transport. This points to the need to reassess Irelandsrenewable energy policies in light of the non-ETS emissions reduction target. The results pointto a focus on renewable heat, renewable transport and electrification of heat, in contrast to thecurrent dominant focus on wind generated electricity.

8. Further work is required in a number of areas to improve the results and to extend the scope ofthe analysis, namely extending the analysis to fully incorporate agriculture, quantifyingfeedbacks between the energy scenarios and economic growth, using other complementarymodelling tools to further shed light on a number of results, in particular renewable

contribution to electricity, land use implications of bioenergy, electrification and gasification ofheating, to name but a few.

Documents

Brian Ó Gallachóir Opening Statement - Climate Heads of Bill