Brian Deal LEAM Laboratory Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of Illinois

Brian DealLEAM LaboratoryDepartment of Urban and Regional PlanningUniversity of IllinoisThe Landuse Evolution and Impact Assessment ModelL E A M

OverviewWhy model?What is LEAM? Preliminary resultsWhat role does LEAM play?Next steps

What is Modeling?Describing how systems behaveDescribing different system componentsDescribing different mechanisms that cause changeDescriptions are typically mathematical expressionsGraphic representations are easier to understand and manipulate

Why Model?Complex systems behave in unexpected (emergent) waysCaused by feedbacks and lagsCaused by uncertaintyUnderstanding systems requires knowingHow systems behave normallyA range of other systems behaviorsWhat-if scenarios

Why Model?The model building process is as important as the end resultHelps groups develop a shared understandingProvides a common frame of referenceHelps create institutional memory

What is LEAM?

LEAM ApproachCaptures causal mechanisms of land-use changeEnvironmental, Social, Economic Appropriate scalesCaptures dynamics of complex systemsFeedbacksLagsCaptures impacts of land use changeCausal relationshipsEnvironmental, Social, EconomicIncorporates calibration and validationQuantify uncertainty

Static Data

Proximity Measures

Development ScoreSlope MapSlope Score MapSlope Map

Chart7

0.0582

0.054698

0.051584

0.048846

0.046472

0.04445

0.042768

0.041414

0.040376

0.039642

0.0392

0.039038

0.039144

0.039506

0.040112

0.04095

0.042008

0.043274

0.046382

0.050178

0.054566

0.05945

0.064734

0.0732

0.082026

0.093794

0.107424

0.141

Normalized Probability

Distance from Open Space (meters)

Normalized Probability of Slope

os_wetland

FeatureNormalized from TrendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsFrom TrendlineNormalized from Trendline

010.1889031093295787570.18685657081normalized on this value

300.80737816380.152936650474253220.15086391510.8073781638

590.65961065190.123271249312022460.12325258450.6596106519

660.62895120940.11075233382107260.11752366620.6289512094

890.54042468020.09813377813850110.10098190250.5404246802

1190.44979394140.084631422684994410.08404695350.4497939414

1490.3824599440.073782356214827860.07146515360.382459944

1730.34215329040.065951355975397520.06393359060.3421532904

2110.29727185560.058497395106754210.05554719950.2972718556

2530.26667083110.050989407827998250.04982919710.2666708311

3040.24459799420.044502424079529220.04570474240.2445979942

3650.22526266770.0392554180310649220.04209180960.2252626677

4490.19263745140.0342164207712297560.03599557360.1926374514

5490.14408970630.0299234191514007790.02692410840.1440897063

6790.15480874820.0282084213614937840.02892703180.1548087482

8480.029046424851462695

10810.032991424661287201

14010.04444942419954324

removed last two

critical value is 679 - go flat afterward

os_wetland

0.188903

0.152936

0.123271

0.11075

0.09813

0.084631

0.073782

0.065951

0.058497

0.050989

0.044502

0.039255

0.034216

0.029923

0.028208

os_water

FeatureNormalized Probability from trendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cellsfrom TrendlineNormalized Probability from trendline

010.154903424042737450.17157754221

590.84478188590.154903424042737450.14494559970.8447818859normalized on this value

830.78770797790.147484343532329270.13515299880.7877079779

1070.73399520140.134554332112468230.12593709270.7339952014

1330.67948479580.118395366063091850.11658433120.6794847958

1730.60280986930.101019424654203650.10342863580.6028098693

2110.53767107460.087266392384496380.09225228150.5376710746

2530.47392708080.074673418195600310.08131524370.4739270808

2990.41344622720.067323397245900520.07093808750.4134462272

3480.35899550250.058179412437088950.0615955660.3589955025

4020.30992013860.05214412287907230.05317533570.3099201386

4680.26391190320.046019420569138770.04528135570.2639119032

5390.22936751170.042043384419143170.03935431390.2293675117

6230.20508335840.0377574210911152750.03518769860.2050833584

7230.19402718910.0351444221812012890.03329070820.1940271891

8440.19688786320.0338884230512483930.03378153570.1968878632

9960.20725650770.0330674191912676960.03556056220.2072565077

11970.19252001370.0336344244112618580.03303211080.1925200137

removed last two

Critical value = 1200

os_water

0.154903

0.154903

0.147484

0.134554

0.118395

0.101019

0.087266

0.074673

0.067323

0.058179

0.05214

0.046019

0.042043

0.037757

0.035144

0.033888

0.033067

0.033634

os_forest

FeatureNormalized ProbabilityProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cellsfrom trendlineNormalized Probability


300.94084191890.06363311999018856520.06776362390.9408419189

420.91788025370.06645473537126100.06610982260.9178802537

600.88418943510.061589428056950110.06368325980.8841894351

670.87133104980.064419436286772500.06275714160.8713310498

930.82476566770.060124393166539130.05940329550.8247656677

1070.80047151960.060635230333798660.05765352280.8004715196

1220.77504759450.057433325805672700.05582237850.7750475945

1490.73086305560.055333330915980320.05264001130.7308630556

1730.69329171610.050588376587444020.04993395610.6932917161

2150.63140049160.04385396789048670.04547627460.6314004916

3040.516479350.0343354224212302890.03719914230.51647935

8060.28125335280.0205644245020642730.02025711870.2812533528

24810.0171648152474953

806 is critical value

removed all 6 2481 zero values

os_forest

0.071771

0.063633

0.06645

0.061589

0.064419

0.060124

0.060635

0.057433

0.055333

0.050588

0.04385

0.034335

0.020564

os_res

Featurenormalized from trendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized ProbabilityProbability from Trend linenormalized from trendline

00.36865107090.0299624401714690730.22000631480.05012220290.3686510709

410.35173511980.045266389238598700.33238121110.04782229170.3517351198

660.34280092670.058313348225971560.42818330680.0466075890.3428009267

930.334276850.057527364396334280.42241183080.04544864620.33427685

1330.32370376360.052731401517614340.38719554730.04401111780.3237037636

1810.31407814050.04648405188717210.34129542470.04270240760.3140781405

2400.30649442060.041023401409784790.30122552080.04167131670.3064944206

3070.30306135070.0374654139411048640.27509967910.04120455280.3030613507

3900.30559830180.0360884062611257620.26498858190.04154947940.3055983018

4830.31614365510.0374544232111299590.27501890780.04298323720.3161436551

5880.33615801890.042284417189866140.3104848480.0457044120.3361580189

6940.36329419250.049211423538606480.36134873370.04939387580.3632941925

8150.40061223470.05498424367718440.40370960520.05446767770.4006122347

9470.44651481840.062836418546660850.46139499360.06070864320.4465148184

10930.50068523710.071622423555913690.52590922780.06807371260.5006852371

12650.56550433310.078508422925387000.57647205680.07688658780.5655043331

14740.64128575460.086159424014921240.63265216210.08718991270.6412857546

17380.72764233820.097559424384349970.71636059240.09893104830.7276423382

20880.8262838170.112127424153782780.8233311550.11234245170.826283817


nothing

critical value = 2655

os_res

0.029962

0.045266

0.058313

0.057527

0.052731

0.04648

0.041023

0.037465

0.036088

0.037454

0.042284

0.049211

0.05498

0.062836

0.071622

0.078508

0.086159

0.097559

0.112127

0.136187

sloperetry

0.3686510709

0.3517351198

0.3428009267

0.33427685

0.3237037636

0.3140781405

0.3064944206

0.3030613507

0.3055983018

0.3161436551

bados_slope

0.3686510709

0.3517351198

0.3428009267

0.33427685

0.3237037636

0.3140781405

0.3064944206

0.3030613507

os_road

FeatureValues from TrendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cellsnormalized probability from trendlineValues from Trendline

00.05820.07808222428228723930.41276595740.0582

10.0546980.0446028454518955300.3879290780.054698

20.0515840.0436445338112230890.36584397160.051584

30.0488460.039245389679929140.34642553190.048846

40.0464720.041055304607419310.32958865250.046472

50.044450.042553282276633450.3152482270.04445

60.0427680.04337254975878980.30331914890.042768

70.0414140.044141225575110180.29371631210.041414

80.0403760.044247210824764580.28635460990.040376

90.0396420.044408200984525780.28114893620.039642

100.03920.043803185414232810.27801418440.0392

110.0390380.043511177884088150.27686524820.039038

120.0391440.04248157103698240.27761702130.039144

130.0395060.041781146193499000.28018439720.039506

140.0401120.042017136583250600.28448226950.040112

150.040950.041174124003011640.29042553190.04095

160.0420080.041817117952820600.2979290780.042008

170.0432740.042898114072659090.30690780140.043274

190.0463820.044479208214681070.32895035460.046382

210.0501780.04755186893930410.35587234040.050178

230.0545660.054076176003254660.38699290780.054566

250.059450.060717163452691990.42163120570.05945

270.0647340.068872150102179400.4591063830.064734

300.07320.080628205092543660.51914893620.0732

330.0820260.094194182361936010.58174468090.082026

370.0937940.107394204331902620.66520567380.093794

420.1074240.122233189771552530.76187234040.107424

700.1410.1410591833412997410.141

value 70 uses different trendline

42 is critical value to stop 3rd order regression

70 starts with linear regression

os_road

0.0780820.122233

0.0446020.141059

0.043644

0.039245

0.041055

0.042553

0.04337

0.044141

0.044247

0.044408

0.043803

0.043511

0.04248

0.041781

0.042017

0.041174

0.041817

0.042898

0.044479

0.04755

0.054076

0.060717

0.068872

0.080628

0.094194

0.107394

0.122233

os_grass

FeatureProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cells

00.07808222428228723930.6083616418

10.0446028454518955300.3475083367

20.0436445338112230890.3400442547

30.039245389679929140.3057702496

40.041055304607419310.319872534

50.042553282276633450.3315439274

60.04337254975878980.3379094337

70.044141225575110180.3439165394

90.044326411809290360.3453579331

110.04366363298320960.3401689158

130.04214303297197240.3283261134

160.041675378539082840.3247031508

200.044403417439401000.3459578646

240.053568350396540990.4173652881

290.070794369775223200.5515785209

360.096801405724191300.7542073114

700.128348420303274691normalized on this value

removed last 3 - all 241 with zeros

os_grass

0.0780820.096801

0.0446020.128348

0.043644

0.039245

0.041055

0.042553

0.04337

0.044141

0.044326

0.04366

0.04214

0.041675

0.044403

0.053568

0.070794

0.096801

os_com_ind

FeatureNormalized ProbabilityProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized Probability

00.15362603710.028293184176509490.1536260371

290.15362603710.028293184176509490.1536260371

590.17602949480.0324193855111891350.1760294948

890.20170170710.0371473853910374840.2017017071

1220.19250358370.0354534234311943580.1925035837

1680.22187350680.0408624166310195920.2218735068

2090.22066265580.040639339678358280.2206626558

2460.21403826940.0394194234810742940.2140382694

2990.23845619220.043916392878946010.2384561922

3480.22764541070.041925416169926400.2276454107

4010.23907519220.04403417359478720.2390751922

4560.26166869380.048191414038591500.2616686938

5230.2714315190.049989422858458870.271431519

5990.29031102040.053466405887591390.2903110204

6750.3136484080.057764418597246540.313648408

7650.35315038440.065039420996472880.3531503844

8710.42487294210.078248419155356680.4248729421

9890.53307306370.098175407334149010.5330730637

11340.62257829810.114659424703704020.6225782981

13220.77241974720.142255422432969530.7724197472


did nothing

os_com_ind

0.028293

0.032419

0.037147

0.035453

0.040862

0.040639

0.039419

0.043916

0.041925

0.04403

0.048191

0.049989

0.053466

0.057764

0.065039

0.078248

0.098175

0.114659

0.142255

0.184168

Probability

os_ag

0.1536260371

0.1536260371

0.1760294948

0.2017017071

0.1925035837

0.2218735068

0.2206626558

0.2140382694

0.2384561922

0.2276454107

0.2390751922

0.2616686938

0.271431519

0.2903110204

0.313648408

0.3531503844

0.4248729421

0.5330730637

0.6225782981

0.7724197472

1

normalized probability

normalized probability

os_flood

0.028293

0.028293

0.032419

0.037147

0.035453

0.040862

0.040639

0.039419

0.043916

0.041925

0.04403

0.048191

0.049989

0.053466

0.057764

0.065039

0.078248

0.098175

0.114659

0.142255

0.184168

os_wetland_graph

FeatureProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized Probability


410.088667403324548710.5755242985

830.060351416856907120.3917293575

1260.047966398078299090.311340166

1880.044082396809001410.2861297002

2550.041355409809909300.2684291491

3340.0381044080710709490.247327392

4230.037184138511131120.2413298456

5220.0379364151310942930.246236929

6340.0390444220510809580.2534287921

7630.0410284229810309540.2663066408

9050.043809423169659200.2843576978

10640.048405420218681050.3141896497

12550.051933421948124710.3370893725

14860.05471424417757410.3551144662

17480.063978424066628180.4152716746

20390.077394421685448510.5023529335

23810.089671423054717820.5820411131

29040.092436424954597220.5999883165

removed last value - outlier at 7000

os_wetland_graph

0.154063

0.088667

0.060351

0.047966

0.044082

0.041355

0.038104

0.03718

0.037936

0.039044

0.041028

0.043809

0.048405

0.051933

0.05471

0.063978

0.077394

0.089671

0.092436

2904

Probability

os_water_graph

1

0.5755242985

0.3917293575

0.311340166

0.2861297002

0.2684291491

0.247327392

0.2413298456

0.246236929

0.2534287921

0.2663066408

0.2843576978

0.3141896497

0.3370893725

0.3551144662

0.4152716746

0.5023529335

0.5820411131

0.5999883165

dist

norm prob

norm

os_forest_graph

0.154063

0.088667

0.060351

0.047966

0.044082

0.041355

0.038104

0.03718

0.037936

0.039044

0.041028

0.043809

0.048405

0.051933

0.05471

0.063978

0.077394

0.089671

0.092436

os_res_graph


00.035399351029916140.4353210276

410.035399351029916140.4353210276

890.051708384707439820.6358817959

1330.059011418557092760.725690815

1810.057656390716776580.7090276326

2400.052961410727755190.651290628

3040.048596420308648850.5976118155

3830.045228421959329390.5561936618

4670.04345422619726330.5343286152

5620.04273423259905130.5254743781

6630.043843423239653270.5391615529

7810.044482422579499700.5470196884

9110.047722424118887170.5868637554

10480.054407422987774400.6690728876

11990.060954423096941180.7495849576

13730.064902423836530260.7981356912

15690.071354421845911910.8774794938

18020.078315424705422940.9630827502


25460.078729424725394730.9681739366

35440.070806424896000750.8707404356

nothing

os_res_graph

0.035399

0.051708

0.059011

0.057656

0.052961

0.048596

0.045228

0.04345

0.04273

0.043843

0.044482

0.047722

0.054407

0.060954

0.064902

0.071354

0.078315

0.081317

0.078729

0.070806

Probability

os_slope_graph

0.4353210276

0.4353210276

0.6358817959

0.725690815

0.7090276326

0.651290628

0.5976118155

0.5561936618

0.5343286152

0.5254743781

0.5391615529

0.5470196884

0.5868637554

0.6690728876

0.7495849576

0.7981356912

0.8774794938

0.9630827502

1

0.9681739366

0.8707404356

norm

dist

norm

y = -1E-04x4 + 0.0043x3 - 0.0629x2 + 0.3335x + 0.0982R2 = 0.9639


00.03400424788372899220.3264906385

300.05664610750218977790.5438886222

590.06592369865610720.6329332693

660.063775335105254410.6123379741

830.068549321124684520.6581757081

930.066903298624463510.6423715795

1190.071794330654605520.6893326932

1490.072304360394984370.6942294767

1790.077062390565068110.7399135862

2270.082072405494940690.7880172828

2990.088467424474798080.8494191071

4010.096712423534379310.9285837734


9110.094896424354471750.9111473836

31650.053245424957981070.5112337974

42180.0583991214207880.5607201152

removed 4 4218 values with zeros

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Probability

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Agriculture Probability

Distance from Feature (Meters)


Agriculture Probability

Total OSOS in Flood ZoneOS in non Flood ZoneTotal Flood Zone CellsTotal Non Flood CellsOS in Flood FrequencyOS in non Flood FrequencyNotmalized Score-FloodNotmalized Score-Non Flood

8499683989884509802691707130486690.14822861480.034561379410.2331626687

chance that flood zone area is OS

chance that non-flood zone area is OS

FeatureNormalized from Trendline

01

300.8073781638

590.6596106519

660.6289512094

890.5404246802

1190.4497939414

1490.382459944

1730.3421532904

2110.2972718556

2530.2666708311

3040.2445979942

3650.2252626677

4490.1926374514

5490.1440897063

6790.1548087482

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Wetland Probability



Normalized Probability of Wetland Location

FeatureNormalized Probability from trendline

01

590.8447818859

830.7877079779

1070.7339952014

1330.6794847958

1730.6028098693

2110.5376710746

2530.4739270808

2990.4134462272

3480.3589955025

4020.3099201386

4680.2639119032

5390.2293675117

6230.2050833584

7230.1940271891

8440.1968878632

9960.2072565077

11970.1925200137

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Water



Normalized Probability of Water Location

FeatureNormalized Probability

01

300.9408419189

420.9178802537

600.8841894351

670.8713310498

930.8247656677

1070.8004715196

1220.7750475945

1490.7308630556

1730.6932917161

2150.6314004916

3040.51647935

8060.2812533528

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0



Normalized Probability of Forest Location

Featurenormalized from trendline

00.3686510709

410.3517351198

660.3428009267

930.33427685

1330.3237037636

1810.3140781405

2400.3064944206

3070.3030613507

3900.3055983018

4830.3161436551

5880.3361580189

6940.3632941925

8150.4006122347

9470.4465148184

10930.5006852371

12650.5655043331

14740.6412857546

17380.7276423382

20880.826283817

26551

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0



Normalized Probability of Residential Location

FeatureValues from Trendline

00.0582

10.054698

20.051584

30.048846

40.046472

50.04445

60.042768

70.041414

80.040376

90.039642

100.0392

110.039038

120.039144

130.039506

140.040112

150.04095

160.042008

170.043274

190.046382

210.050178

230.054566

250.05945

270.064734

300.0732

330.082026

370.093794

420.107424

700.141

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0



Normalized Probability of Slope

mcLEAM Preliminary Results

McHenry County

Base 2030Yellow/Red is new growth

LEAM baseOverlay on Natural resource inventory

LEAM base runOn Common Ground plan

Scenario AnalysisLEAM analysis of Public policy choicesPublic investmentsI-90 Interchange at US23Current condition vs added interchange

Comparison mapHigh growth run

LEAMs Role in Planning?

LEAMs RoleLegacy PlanningBroader applications

Legacy Planning ApplicationsResource risk assessmentConflict emergence over timeDynamic interactions

Broader Planning ApplicationsBeyond Legacy planningAssessing future outcomesPublic policy InvestmentsWhat-if scenariosAssessing implicationsSOPDynamic planningUncovering inconsistencies

Next StepsBreak Out SessionsGroups of approx eight Local expertise and experience Set of diverse maps are providedResource inventory mapsAgricultural Resources, Cultural Resources, Natural ResourcesSystem-of-Plans mapsRegion, County, Southwest portion, Marengo, Huntley, UnifiedLEAM land-use change mapsBase run, New Ramp scenario, Comparing land-use pattern with regional plans, Comparing land-use pattern with resource inventoriesAre these building blocks more generally useful to planning in McHenry County? What improvements can be made to them?

Break Out SessionsSession 1Consider how the resource inventory, the System of Plans, and LEAM simulations can be used to create elements of a Local Legacy plan in McHenry County.1. Are the data in the resource inventories correct? What additional data about resources are needed?2. Which resources are already protected? Which resources are addressed in plans? Which resources are not addressed?

Break Out SessionsSession 2New interchange on I-90 at US 23 in southwest McHenry County. 1. How does this proposal relate to other proposals or expectations in existing plans? Are there interesting differences among existing plans in terms of expected land uses, regulations, and capital investments?2. How might the System of Plans, LEAM, or the Legacy Plan help you usefully discuss and persuasively oppose or support this proposal?

Documents

Brian Deal LEAM Laboratory Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of Illinois