1

Brexit:

TheRightWay

ToLeave

2

Contents Page

Foreword 3

SettingTheScene 4

EUtopia 5

ThePivotEast 7

TheEmpireStrikesBack 9

BritishExceptionalism 10

Uncertainty 12

TheDeal 14

TheFutureforanIndependentUK 16

ThePoliticalQuestions… 18

…AndTheAnswers 19

TheWorldOutlook 20

CulturalProblems 21

CulturalSolutions 22

TheNextChapter… 23

Postscript…. 24

3

Foreword

Twothousandandsixteencouldbeahistoricdate.Oneofthoseyearsmadefamousbytheeventstheyencompass.Actionsofgenuinesignificanceinhistorylike‘TheGreatReformAct’of1832or‘TheGloriousRevolution’of1688.Ofcourseitcouldequallygodownasan1848;ayearofpossibilitiesunrealised;afootnotechieflyofinteresttocounter-factualhistorianswhoaskwhatif?

Inthespiritofhypothesiscontemplatethisnotion:ifyouwereanextraterrestriallookingdowndispassionatelyattheEarth,wonderingwhoisyourbestbetforfirstcontact,youwouldchoseBritain.Youwouldobservethatitisthemostliberalandtolerantadvancedcivilisationontheplanet.Youwouldnoticethatitslanguageandculturehavespreadacrosstheglobe.Thatitspolitics,law,science,engineeringandinventionshadshapedthemodernworld.Throughoutitshistoryithadwelcomedandassimilatedpeoplesandtodayitscapitalcouldclaimtobethemostdiverse,cosmopolitanmetropolisanywhere.Youwouldfindthatitssystemofgovernmenthadthelongestpedigree,greatestnumberofdisciplesandthatitsHeadofStateisrespectedwherevershegoes,cordiallyreceivedandgracioustoallworldleadersshewelcomesinreturn.Yes,ouralienwouldconclude,theymaynolongerbetopdog,buttheyareourbestbetatafairhearing.

Britonsarefacedwithahistoricchoiceinthisyear,onethatgoesbeyondmembershipoftheEuropeanUnion.Theyareaskingaquestionthatallmaturedemocraciesintheearly21stCenturyshouldbeaskingthemselves.Unlikeageneralelectiontherearenotacticalvotestobehad,nosafeseats,noshadesofgrey.YouareeitherIn,Outoryoucouldn’tcareless.

Thereferendum,inanutshell,isavoteonbiggovernment.Ifyoubelievetheproblemstheworldfacescanonlybesolvedbyunelectedofficialstakingdecisionsonyourbehalf,votetostayin.Ifyoubelievethatyouarebetterabletofacethechallengesofthisyoungcenturybytrustingasystemofrepresentativegovernment,votetogetout.

That’sit.Economics,security,trade,immigration,emigration,theyareallpartofalonghistory.TheyweretherebeforetheEUandwillbepartofthefuturewhatevertheresult.Thedebateitselfhowever,isanothermatter.

ThispaperwillexplorethecurrentrelationshipbetweenGreatBritainandtheEU:itwillexaminesomeofthewarnings,the‘uncertainty’thatBrexitmaycauseandtheremediestothis.ItwillalsotouchonothermoregeneralthreatstoWesterncivilisationanddescribehowfarfromretreatingfromtheworld,BrexitisBritain’sanswertothem.

4

SettingTheScene

AstheScottishreferendumof2014foreshadowed,passionscanrunhighonbothsides.Normallymildmanneredpeoplesuddenlygoveryredandfrothatthemouth.Whatstartsascivildebateoftendescendsintoaslangingmatchasbothsidespolariseandeachsetofsupporterstrytooutdoeachotherintheirenthusiasm.Characterassassinationstakeplace.Formerfriendsandcolleaguesarevilified.Attentionseekingpoliticiansappearontheairwavesclaimingso-and-soisonsuch-and-suchasidesolelytofurthertheirownambitions.Themediabecomeobsessedwithpersonalitiesjustwhentheymattertheleast;therearenonamesontheballotpaper1.ManynowspeculateastowhethertherewillbeapostreferendumpoliticalrealignmentsuchaswesawinScotland.

Whatevertheoutcome,onefactisundeniable.BritainwillstillhavetodealwiththeEUandtheywillstillhavetodealwiththeUK.TheislandcannotbesailedoutintotheAtlanticnorbebeacheduponthecontinent.

TheUK’sislandstationhasalloweddistinctiveculture,laws,valuesandmannerstoevolveseparatelyfromthemainland.UnlikeJapan,itsmirrorimageofftheAsianlandmass,Britainhasnevershutitselfofffromitsneighbours,norhasitalloweditsculturetodevelopwithoutsignificantinfluencefromthem.Britonsunderstandandappreciateacommonheritageandareinstinctivelyopentotheworld,indeedseeitasthekeytotheirprosperity.HoweverbeinganislandnationhasalwaysprotectedthemfromexternalthreatsandhasallowedtheBritishtodevelopadistinctiveworldviewtotheircousinsacrossthechannel.AcommonlawsystemhasevolvedfrombeforethetimeoftheNormanConquestandtheKingdomhasclaimtoevenlongerroots.Britainhasevolvedasystemofgovernmentoverthelastmillennium,fromabsolutemonarchytoconstitutional,fromMagnaCartatogaymarriage,asEdmundBurkeremarked“Astatewithoutthemeansofsomechangeiswithoutthemeansofitsconservation”2.

NocountryincontinentalEuropehaseverenjoyedassustainedaperiodofcontinuousgovernmentasBritain’s.ThenearestitshistorycouldofferwouldbetheVatican,butitisdoubtfulwhetherRemaincampaignerswouldwishtodrawparallelswiththatsystemofelectiveautarchy.TheVaticandoesofcourseplayanintegralroleinEurope’shistory.ConsiderthefalloftheRomanEmpire;thedivisionwithConstantinople;thecrowningofCharlemagne;theHolyRomanEmpireandthesplitbetweentheFrankishandGermanstates;theCrusades;thedivisionofEuropebetweenProtestantandCatholiccountries;theEnglishReformation...3

ThesefaultlinesledtothedevastatingwarsofthelastcenturyandultimatelytheEUitself-anattempttosolveonceandforallthedivisionsinEuropebybindingtogetherthecontinent’sbiggestpowers.

1Halfacenturyfromnow,willitmatterifaJohnsonledthiscampaignoranonymousJohnsonledthat?2ReflectionsontheRevolutioninFrance,1790.3NottoimplythattheVaticanwasuniquelyresponsiblefortheseeventsofcourse.

5

EUtopia

…Anditworked.InWesternEuropethecontrastbetweenthetwohalvesofthe20thCenturycouldnotbemoredistinct.Peace,prosperity,theEuropeanmodelofsocialdemocraticwelfarestatesseemed,attheturnofthemillenniumandthebirthoftheEuro,tohaveconqueredcommunismtotheeastandtorivalthefreemarketcapitalismoftheAmericanstothewest.EUtopiahadtriumphed.

Unfortunately,aswithallutopianideas,theyneversurvivebeingputintopractise.Itwasalie.TheEUworkedbecauseaftertheSecondWorldWarGermanywasfinallydemilitarisedandpartitioned.ConceivedbyFrenchmen,theEUwascreatedupontheFrenchmodel.ItsbureaucraciesanchoredinFrancophonecountries,itsfonctionnairesmastersoftheFrenchénarquetradition.IthasaNapoleoniclegalsystemandaworldviewthatisessentiallystatistathomeandprotectionistbeyonditsnewexpandingborders.BuiltonFrenchDNA,italsohasthatdistinctiveennuiinitsgenes.WhileFranceitselfisenjoyingitsFifthRepublicsincetheFrenchRevolution,itsFourthEmpireissupposedlythebestsystemofgovernmentforthewholecontinent.OfcourseFranceitselfdidverywelloutoftheprotectionstheEUprovided.FrenchfarmershaveensuredtheCommonAgriculturePolicyisinviolate,nomatterthecosttoEuropeansasawhole,ortherestoftheworldforthatmatter.

Protectionismbreedsinefficiency.TheEUallowedtheFrenchmodeltosurvivewellpastitssell-bydateandcreatedhugestructuraldefectsthroughouttheEUintheprocess.Worsestill,EUtopiagrewupundertheprotectionofNATO,orasothersmightsay,theAmericantaxpayer.WherewouldthemoneyfordefencecomefromtodayiftheUSAweretowithdrawfromtheworld?EUtopianshavealreadyspentthekids’inheritanceontheirretirement.France,likeBritain,hasamilitaryandindependentnucleardeterrent.ItsGermanneighbourdoesnot.IndeeditwasneitherFrancenortheEUthatprotectedGermanyduringtheColdWarandnoonebelievestheycoulddosonow.

TheprotectionistclubthatwastheoriginalEUisnowunderassaultfrominternalpressureslargelyofitsowncreationandhastodealwitheffectsofglobalisationthatitwasneverdesignedtohandle4.Inadditiontheaccessionoftheformersovietstateshasshiftedthebalanceofpowereast,awayfromthetraditionalFrenchbase,leavingthosenominallyinchargeunsureofhowtorespond.

AftertherejectionoftheEUConstitutionbythevotersofFranceandHolland5,theénarquesresolvedtocontinueanyway,salvagingwhattheycouldintheLisbonTreaty.ThisleftapowerhungryEUCommissionvyingforsupremacywiththeCouncilofMinisters6andtheEUParliamentincreasinglyfedupwithitsroleofmerelyrubberstampinglegislation.MeanwhiletheEUacquiredmoreofthetrappingsofaSuperstateincludinganotherpresidentandcouncil7.HoweverthelackofdemocraticlegitimacyhobblestheprojectleavingitwithaDonaldTusk,notaDonaldTrump8.ThewholeveneerofEUgovernancewasatop-heavysouffléjustwaitingforacrisistocollapseit.

ThefollyoftheEurohasbeendiscussedadnauseam.Forourpurpose,letusjustlookattheoutcomes:Farfromharmonising,themostefficienteconomies,thenewlyreunifiedGermanytothefore,reapedthebenefitswhiletheleastefficienteconomies,ledbyFrance,wereleft4Seehttps://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/09/the-migration-crisis-in-the-eu-between-911-and-climate-change,http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/09/europe_s_migrant_crisis_is_explained_by_economic_globalization_smuggling.htmletc.5InMayandJune2005.6AlsoreferredtoasCounciloftheEuropeanUnionitismadeupoftheMemberStates’HeadsofStateand“TogetherwiththeEuropeanParliament,theCouncilisthemaindecision-makingbodyoftheEU”(http://europa.eu/about-eu/institutions-bodies/council-eu/index_en.htm).Itsworkingasa‘talkingshop’fortheHeadsofStatesisfundamentallycompromisedbytheEUCouncilwhichistheCouncilofMinistersandthePresidentoftheCommissionandthePresidentoftheEurogroupandalsoaPresidentoftheCouncilitselfwhosupposedlyco-ordinateseveryonetowardsapre-conceiveddestination.7Seenote6above.LisbongavenewlegalcharactertotheinformalEUCouncil“TheEuropeanCouncilbecomesafully-fledgedinstitutionwithitsownPresident.Previously,theEuropeanCouncilhadbeenaninformalbodyandtheheadoftheEuropeanCouncilwasanunofficialposition.”(http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/history/?taxId=600&p=1)8…Towhichwemayallbetrulygrateful…MrTuskisthecurrentPresidentoftheEUCouncil,theRepublicanPresidentialcandidateMrTrumpshouldneednointroduction.

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horriblyexposedwhenthewholehouseofcardscollapsedafterthefinancialcrisisof2008.Tryingtorunacurrencyunionbyrelyingonmonetarypolicyandadherencetotherulesalonewasalwaysanill-starredproject.InterestratesthatsuitedhistoricallystableGermandeutschemarkswereneversuitableforItalyandtheirinflatedLire.

7

ThePivotEast

WheredidthisleavetheEU?Paralysed.TheFranco-Germanaxishastipped.ItusedtobeMerkozy9,nowit’sjustMerkel.HerCDUpartyholdthebalanceofpowerintheEuropeanParliament10,sheherselfdominatestheCouncilofMinistersleavingjusttheCommission.TheirownfrustrationswiththesupposedlydemocraticarmsofEUgovernmentwereneatlysummedupbyCommissionPresidentJean-ClaudeJuncker,backwhenhehadtoworryaboutsuchthings,quipping“Weallknowwhattodo,wejustdon'tknowhowtogetre-electedafterwe'vedoneit”11.WhiletheEurocrisisunfoldeditbecameincreasinglyclearthatAngelaMerkelwasthedefactoheadoftheEUandthattheénarqueshadbecomelittlemorethanherEUnuchswhileshecautiouslyadoptedaGrandWait&Seepolicy.

Thestatusquo,beforethemigrantcrisisatleast,suitedMerkelverywell.LikeFrancepre-enlargementandtheEuro,Germanybenefitsthemostfromthestateofaffairs.WhilethegovernanceofEuropewasFrench,thefinancesarequintessentiallyGerman.ThenewMemberstotheeasthaveculturalandeconomicties,smoothingtheirpathintotheGermansupplyline.Historicallyhowever,GermanyhasneverbeenpowerfulenoughtocompletelydominateEuropeandsheisuncomfortableintherolenow.TheoldGermanQuestionhasresurfaced,namely:Howdoesshedealwiththelesserpowerssurroundingher?Fortunately,whileahundredyearsagothequestionrevolvedaroundthemilitary,nowadaysit’stheeconomy12.GermansincreasinglyresenthavingtopayfortheweakerMemberswhosharetheEuroandworrythattheywillclubtogethertomakethemdoso.TheythemselvesseeGermany’stradeandbudgetsurplusesrisewhiletheirs’seemtofallinaninverseproportionandresentGermaneconomicgrowthatwhattheyperceiveastheirexpense13.

TheEurocrisishasbroughtupalltheoldEuropeanfaultlinesandtheEU’sreactiontothemigrantcrisishasonlydeepenedthosedivisions.AftertryingtoignorethecrossingsintoItaly,thenumberschoosingthemuchshorterrouteintoGreecehasledtoextraordinarymeasures.WhiletheCommissioncameupwithaplantodistributetherefugeesequallyamongMemberStatestheBalkannations,followedbythecentralEuropeanones,putupfenceswithanalacritythatDonaldTrumpwouldenvy.TheEU’spassportfreeSchengenzonehaseffectivelybeenended14andwhiletheCommissionhastrieditsusualpan-Europeanmodelthatonlyanswersthequestionsnobodyelseisasking,theMemberStatestypicallyfelloutoverit.Merkel’sresponsewas,againstallEuropeantreaties,protocolsandconventions,toinviteamillioninto

9TheslangtermusedtodescribethepartnershipinthetimeofFrenchPresidentNicolasSarkozy.Hissuccessor,PresidentHollande,increasinglyresemblesMerkel’sbutlerashestandstoonesidewhileshedeliversapolicyspeech.10TheEUParliamenthasmanydifferentgroupswhosemembershipcomesfromdifferentnations.Ofthe751MEPs,thosewhoareinfavourofmoreintegrationtoagreaterorlesserdegreeresideintheLiberalDemocraticAlliancegroup(ALDE,70MEPs);TheSocial-Democraticgroup(S&D,190MEPs);theGreen-FreeAlliancegroup(Verts/ALE,50MEPs);theNordicGreengroup(GUE/NGL,52MEPs)andconstitute362MEPs,orlessthanamajority,thoughtheParliament’sPresidentMartinSchulzisfromtheS&D.ThoseopposedtofurtherintegrationtoagreaterorlesserdegreeincludetheECRgroup,whichtheBritishConservativePartysitin(74MEPs);theEFDDgroup,whichisessentiallyanalliancebetweenBritain’sUKIPandItaly’s5StarMovement(46MEPs);theENFgroupdominatedbyFrance’sFrontNational(38MEPs).Thebiggestgroup,theEuropeanPeople’sParty(PPE,215MEPs),isledbyGermanCDUMEPManfredWeber(theCDUhavethelargestnumberofMEPswithinthegroupat34)with16independentMEPsmakingupthetotal.(Sourcehttp://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/hemicycle.html).ThePPEisnotopposedtofurtherintegrationpersebutrepresentsmorenationalconcernsthanothergroupstotheirleft.11http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27679170,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10874230/Jean-Claude-Juncker-profile-When-it-becomes-serious-you-have-to-lie.html,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-interview-with-luxembourg-prime-minister-juncker-a-888021.html,http://www.thenational.ae/arts-lifestyle/newsmaker-jean-claude-juncker#fulletc.12SeeHansKundnaniTheParadoxofGermanPower2014forananalysisofthe‘NewGermanQuestion’.13WhileGermanyhasnotalwaysrunabudgetsurplus,herbalanceoftradehasnearlyalwaysbeenpositivesincethe1950s.Franceontheotherhandhasrarelyruntradesurplusesbeforeaprolongedperiodinthe1990s(postMaastricht)andagainforabrieferperiodinthe2000s.(Sourcehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-tradeandhttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/balance-of-trade).ForaquickanalysisoftheFrenchEconomyseehttp://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/blog/frances-trade-deficit-entirely-structural/andhttps://www.stratfor.com/sample/weekly/french-conundrumforhergeo-politicaldilemma.Forthetensionscreatedseehttp://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2015/04/03-germany-trade-surplus-problem,http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303309504579185361910371956,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10980824/Juncker-faces-political-test-as-fines-loom-on-illegal-German-trade-surplus.html,http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/20/its-time-to-kick-germany-out-of-the-eurozone/,etc.14Seehttp://www.ecfr.eu/specials/scorecard/schengen_flash_scorecard.

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hercountrywithnoconcernastohowtheywouldgetthere.Indoingsoshehasalienatedhercentralandeasternallies.

Therightsandwrongsofthemigrantcrisiswillnotconcernushere.TheBritishmodelofhelpingrefugeesclosertotheirhomesseemseminentlysensibleifoneisfurthestawayandhasamoattohidebehind.TheEUhasfeweroptionsandlittleexperienceinimplementingthem.TheeffectshavebeenaddedpoliticalunrestamongstthecitizenryandthreatstosocialorderunseenintheEU’s,butnotEurope’shistory.Merkel’spolicy,whileundoubtedlyheartfelt,hasunderminedherauthorityandledtoariseinsupportforultra-nationalistandxenophobicparties.HerrecentTurkishdealandthebacklashovertheprosecutionoftheGermancomedianJanBöhmermann,whodaredexercisehisrighttofreespeechbyinsultingtheTurkishPresident,hasdiminishedherfurther.

9

TheEmpireStrikesBack

Merkel’slossistheCommission’sgain.TheFivePresidents’Report15plotsouttheshort,mediumandlong-termfutureoftheEU.Progressmustbemade“towardsagenuineEconomicUnion”-buildingonthat“successfulandstable”currency;“towardsaFinancialUnion”which“increasesrisk-sharingwiththeprivatesector”–doesanyonerememberMoralHazard?“towardsaFiscalUnion”thatsomehowwilldeliver“fiscalsustainability”and“fiscalstabilisation”-orinotherwords,“harmonised”(high)taxrates;“finally,towardsaPoliticalUnion”thatwillgivetheproceedingUnions“legitimacy”–whichintheUKisknownasthe‘CartBeforetheHorseStrategy’.Itpromisestodoallthisbycreatingseveralnewlayersofbureaucracywithundoubtedlyuntoldnumbersofcommitteestohelpformnew“Authorities”withinMemberStatestohelpthemtowards“harmonisedpolicies”.TheseAuthoritieswouldthenformvarious“Boards”whichwouldthenworkwiththeotherEUinstitutionstoachieve“convergenceandfurtherpoolingofdecisionmakingonnationalbudgets”.Italsolooksat“significantpolicyareas”suchas“digitalandcapitalmarkets”whichasyettheEUhasnotstuckitsbeakinto.Theideaofa“Euroareatreasury”isalsofloated.BuriedatthebackinAnnex3(onthelastpage,whereelse)ithasthealmostobligatorycatch-allthatnotwithstandingtheabovetheCommissionreservestherighttoignoreallthenewlevelsofbureaucracyandBoardswhichrepresentMemberStates,solongasitcanexplainitself.Towhosesatisfactionitmustjustifyitsactionsisunclear.Whatthereport,andthewholeEuroeliteforthatmatter,seemedtohavemissedinbuildingtheirharmonious‘UnitedStatesofEurope’isthattheUnitedStatesofAmericaworksbecausetraditionallythereisvarietybetweenthestates;ifyoudon’tlikethetaxorregulatoryregimeinNewYorkyoucanmovetoTexas…

TheReportalsohelpfullyclarifies“Theeuroismorethanjustacurrency,itisapoliticalandeconomicproject”.TheremorselesslogicofthisprojectmeanstheEUneedstointegratefurther.TobecomemoreGerman,lessFrench.Toworkharder,retirelater.Topaymoretaxesandacceptmoremeddlingregulations.HowdoyousellthattoanincreasinglyscepticalEuropeancitizenry,manyofwhomenjoythelessproductivelifethatwillnotbepossibleinthefuture?Whybyfaitaccompliofcourse.

ThepoliticaldeadlockinEuropehasledtoan‘AgeoftheTechnocrats’.CentralBankerssuchasECB16headMarioDraghi,oneofthefivepresidentswhoauthoredthereport,havebeenchargedwithdoctoringthepatientwhilethey’reonlifesupport.Howeverallthetechnocratscandoisusemonetarypolicytosetinterestratesandprintmoney17.Thesurgeryneededcanonlybecarriedoutbypolicymakersyettheyareeithertootimid,tooweakortoobeyondthepailtoreachanyworkingcompromise.

AtthiscrossroadsoftheEU’shistorytheFrencharebeingeclipsedbytheirGermanpartners.Germanyitselffeelssurroundedbyweakereconomiesandisunsureofitsleadershiprole.WesternEuropeisthreatenedbyitslowbirthratesintoacceptinglevelsofmigrationthatraisequestionsofsocialcohesionandpossiblytheintegrityoftheUnionitself.AtthisjuncturetheUKasksthe‘Brexit’question.

15‘CompletingEurope’sEconomicandMonetaryUnion’availableathttp://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5240_en.htm.Published22ndJune2015,itbuildsontheseminal,well-remembered‘FourPresidents’Report’of2012.Theauthorhasnotprovidedreferences.UnlikecertainMPs(whomayalsobehistorians)theauthorhasactuallyreadthereportandwouldurgeeveryonetodoso.Theboldtypeisthereport’sown.16TheEuropeanCentralBank.17Otherwiseknownas‘QuantitativeEasing’.

10

BritishExceptionalism

InmanywaysBritainhasalreadydivergedsignificantlyfromtherestoftheEU.ItisnotpartoftheSchengenzoneortheEuro,thetwowheelsoftheEUbandwagonspinningoutofcontrolbecausethecartwasimproperlyhitched.WhilethishasshieldedBritainfromtheimmediateeffects,theycannotbeescapedindefinitely.WhetherthroughhigherbudgetcontributionsbecausetheeconomyisdoingbetterrelativetotheEurozone’soringreaternumbersofpeoplewishingtomovetoBritainforthesamereason,thereisnosayinthematter,thosearetherules.OneistemptedtoaskwherethoseruleswerewhenMerkelunilaterallyopenedtheEU’sborders?OrwhatruleswereinplacetostoptheexcessiveborrowingofEurozoneMembersandwhyweretheybrokenbyFranceandGermanyprecipitatingtheEurocrisis?WhythoserulesmeanthatsinceBritainadoptedtheinclusionintoGDPcalculationsofblackmarketactivitiessuchasprostitutionanddrugabuse,inlinewithsomecontinentalfriends,EUbudgetcontributionshavegoneup?TheinescapableconclusionreachedisthattheUK’swillingnesstofollowtherulesandtheopennatureofherlawsandeconomyhavebeenseriallyabusedbytheEU.

Britishopt-outsareoftenportrayedonthecontinentasahangoverfromEmpire.ThosesillyBritsstillthinktheyruntheworldandrefusetoacceptrealityorsomesuchnonsense.Theyareneverseenasthecommonsenseobjectionsthattheyare,noraretheytreatedassuchwhenalltheevidencepointstothewisdomofthosedecisions.

WhattheUKhasundeniablysharedwiththerestoftheEUhasbeenhighlevelsof‘welfarism’intheformofincreasingstatedependency.AgainwheretheyhavedigressedBritainhasthrivedwithlimited,thoughincreasing,regulationsinthelabourmarketandresistancetomadFrenchideassuchaslimitingthenumberofhoursoneisallowedtoworkinaweek.Unsurprisingly,themoredrivenmembersoftheEU’syoungandunemployedhavegonetoBritaintotakeadvantageofthis.Privatisation,withmixedresults,hasgenerallyledtocompetitiveindustriesinnovatinginwaysstateownedmonolithscannot.

ThishasplacedBritainclosertotheUSA’sfreemarketsysteminmanyrespects.HoweverAmericahasrecentlyfollowedtheEUdowntheoverregulatedroad.IndeedPresidentObama’smovetoamoreEU-styleinterventionistbiggovernmentmodelmakeshimanaturalcheerleaderfortheRemaincampaign18.ManyAmericansareunhappywiththe‘anemic(sic)growthrates’oftheirrecoveryundertheObamaAdministrationataround2%19.Well,ifyou’regoingtohaveEuropeanspendingandregulationthengetusedtoEuropeangrowthrates.Obama’sSecretaryofState,JohnKerryhasechoedhiswarnings.ThisistheUS’shighestforeignpolicyofficialandheseesthefutureasa“complexandborderlessWorld”20whichobviouslyonlybiggovernmentcanregulate.ItcanonlybeconcludedthatitisagreatshamethattheheirsofWoodrowWilsonwoulddenyeventherighttoself-determinationfortheBritishpeople.

Forthatiswhatavotetoremainis.AstatementtotheworldthatBritonsarehappytoberuledfromabroadbylawmakerstheycannoteject,nomattertheirpolicies.WhilesomehaveagreedwithapreviousUSgovernment21inpredictingthattheEUisdoomedanywayandthattheUKshouldnotleaveandprecipitateitscollapse;othersseetheEuropeanSuperstateasinevitableandthatitisatbestfutiletoresistandatworstdangeroustoleave.Theseareknownasthe‘LemmingsOvertheCliff’arguments.SomeclaimBritainmuststaywithinforfearofthereprisalstheEUwilldelivershouldtheyexit.Thisisoftenreferredtoas‘Stockholm’or‘BatteredWife’

18AreportfortheHeritageFoundationpointsoutthatitistheObamaAdministrationandtheUK’smembershipoftheEUthatpreventaUS-UKfreetradedeal,anotherwisesimplebi-lateraldealgiventhesimilarnatureofbotheconomies(http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/09/freedom-from-the-eu-why-britain-and-the-us-should-pursue-a-usuk-free-trade-area).19SeeBretStephensAmericaInRetreat2014,YuvalLevinTheFracturedRepublic2016,DanielHenninger:“BarackObama’ssevenyearsofzeroto2%growthiskillingtheAmericanpublic.”(http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ryan-trump-summit-1463008193orindeedanyofthecountlessexplanationsforthesupportfor‘outsider’Presidentialcandidatesinthisyear)etc.20SpeakingatNortheasternUniversity,May6th2016.21TheUSgovernment’sownNationalIntelligenceCouncilsketchedoutascenariowheretheEUcouldcollapseby2020"ThecurrentEUwelfarestateisunsustainableandthelackofanyeconomicrevitalisationcouldleadtothesplinteringor,atworst,disintegrationoftheEU"–‘MappingtheGlobalFuture:ReportoftheNationalIntelligenceCouncil's2020Project’,PublishedJanuary25,2005(pre‘TheGreatRecession’).

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syndrome.AfewstarryeyedidealistsalsoarguetheUKshouldremainwithintoreformtheEUintoafreemarketorsocialistparadise.Othersstillwarnoftheterribleeconomiccosts;theshort-termuncertaintyandlong-termdecline.SomehaveevenputitforwardthatasthePrimeMinsterisinfavourofremaining…

WiththegreatestrespecttoMrCameron,theFivePresidents’Reportisthe“moreofthesame”hewarnedwouldproduce“lesscompetitiveness,lessgrowth,fewerjobs”backinhisBloombergspeech22.TobefairtothePrimeMinister,everybodyexpectedtheEUwouldhavetohaveanewtreatytosolvetheEurocrisis.NobodypredictedMerkel’sintransigenceorthattheLisbonframeworkwouldprovesomalleabletoextraordinarycircumstances.WhatcannotbedeniedisthattheEUhasproveditselfunabletoreform.Thedestinationisset,thetrainmaybestuckinthestationbutassoonastheyfindsomeonewillingtoloanthemenoughfortheonwardjourney,they’llbeoff.Therecentdealisnotworththepaperithasn’tevenbeenwrittenon.ThereislittlepointindissectingithereandastheRemaincampaignhavefounditconvenienttoforgetit,soshallwe.HoweveranyonewhodoubtstheabovestatementgoandwatchJean-ClaudeJunckerandGuyVerhofstadt23chortlingatthesophistryneededtokeepBritain’sexemptionfromEver-CloserUnioninlinewiththeLisbonTreaty,assumingtheEUhavenot‘regulated’itbynowofcourse24.The‘MasterofLies’andthe‘HighPriestofMoreEurope’haveagreattimecomparingaccommodatingBritishdemandstoBelgiansurrealism,"Cecin'estpasunepipe."

Whatifitworks?Whatifsomehow,againstallhistoricprecedent,atop-down,monolithic,overregulated,overtaxed,overspendingandfastagingcontinentdeterminedtosolvealltheworld’sproblemsbeforeitcanevenmakeBelgiumwork,managestomakeasuccessfulSuperstateoutofdisparatepeoplesofwhommanyhaveexplicitlyrejectedsuchaconcept?Wellastradingpartners,theviewmustbethatrisingtidesdoindeedhelpallboats.Howeverifoneshipissinkingtheothercanonlydeploylifeboats,notlashitselftothehulk.Whenthehouseisonfireandthelunaticswhoruntheasylumarearguingoverthecorrectregulationsonhowmanylitresafire-bucketshouldsafelyhold,onemaythinkofheadingfortheexit.Itmaybedarkoutsidebutdayoftenfollowsnightandtherewillbethelightfromthefireinthemeantime.

DoBritonstrustthemselvestomakethebesttheycanofthisworld?Ordotheyshelterfromitbehindtheskirtsofthebignannyonthecontinent?DotheytrusttheirindependenceordotheytrustthattheMotherofParliamentswillnotonedaysharethesamefateasthebirthplaceofdemocracyorthecitythatgavetheworlditsfirstRepublicandenjoyanEUsponsoredcoupsuchasbefellAthensandRomein2011?WhetheryouthinktheEUwillcollapse,surviveoreventhrive,thereferendumnowtranscendsthat.ItisnowaboutwhatBritainsaysaboutitself.

22DavidCameron,‘BloombergSpeech’,London24thJanuary2013.23AformerBelgianPrimeMinister,GuyVerhofstadtnowheadstheALDEgroupintheEUParliament.Hissolutiontoeveryproblemisalwaysfurtherintegration.DeeplyagainstanyBritishreforms,atthetimeoftheBloombergSpeech,hewarnedthatthis‘Europeálacarte’wouldbetheendoftheEU.Healsohascalledforanendtoallcountries’opt-outsfromtheEuro,Schengenetc.Strangethenthathewassosupportiveofthe‘deal’reachedinFebruary2016…24https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXL6-sG3wzM.

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Uncertainty

‘Uncertainty’isatermincommonusage.Bothcampaignswouldhavetoadmittousingnegativetacticswhileeconomicfearsarehawkedaboutinalmostbiblicallanguage.ManyBritonsfeelafraidofleaving.TheyhavehadtoendurePresidentHollande’s“consequences”25andhisheirapparentM.Macronwarningthathewill“rollouttheredcarpet”forthebankerswhowillleaveLondonforParis26.TheyhavehadwarningsfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund(withmoreyettocome),theOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentandtheLeaderoftheFreeWorldhimself27.PresidentObama’sremarkthatBritainwouldbe“atthebackofthequeue”asregardstoanytradedealswasslightlyatoddswithhisspeechinGermanytwodayslaterwherehesaidhewantedtheUS-EUTTIPtradedealconcludedbytheendoftheyear.Howlongisthisqueueagain?

TheIMFreportmentionsBritainonlyfourtimes28:Intheforeword;predictablyinthe“OutlookforIndividualCountriesandRegions”;thatthepotentialofBrexitisoneofthe“Heighteneddownsiderisks”facingtheworldeconomy29;finallyinaspecialsectionofahundredoddwords30.TheactualriskfromBrexitisquantifiedasthatdreadedword“uncertainty”againaswellaspotentialdamagetotradingrelationships31.ItisunderminedbythereportitselfpointingoutthatBritain’sstrongeconomicperformancewilloffsetany“heighteneduncertaintyaheadoftheJunereferendum”32.Allthesearepotentialrisksandarehedgedwithmany‘coulds’and‘likelys’.Noneofthereport’sauthors,nomatterhowexperienced,haveeverwitnessedsuchaneventandallforecastsshouldbetreatedastheworstscenariotheywishtoimagine.

TheOECDreport,whilemoredetailed,canbedismissedoutofhand.Ahatchetjobdeliberatelypaintingthemostdamagingpicture.InpresentingthereportonealmostexpectedthatOECDhead,SeñorGurría33,wouldunveilayoungBillMurraytodrilywarnof“humansacrifice,dogsandcatslivingtogether...masshysteria!”butrelationsbetweentheUSandMexicoseemedtohavesouredoflate.Theunderlyingassumptionsofthereport,inallofitsscenarios,aresoflawedastobelaughable.TheysurmisethatBritainwouldbecomeinwardlookingwithlittletrade,immigrationorinvestment.Evenitsmostneutralassesmentsrestonpremisessuchas“mostofthisstemsfromthedeclineintradeopenness”or“Afailuretoundertakeregulatoryreforms”34whichcompletelymissesthepointofwhyBritainwouldwishtoleave35.BoththeOECDandtheIMFbasetheirhypothesesontheideathatBrexitisa“turntowardmore25http://www.france24.com/en/20160303-hollande-cameron-calais-migrants-drone-deal-franco-british-summit,http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/03/eu-referendum-french-calais-warning-dismissed-as-propaganda-by-brexit-campaign-politics-liveetc.26http://www.politico.eu/article/france-ready-to-roll-out-red-carpet-for-british-bankers-says-macron-britain-european-union-exit/,http://www.thelocal.fr/20160303/calais-migrant-camp-would-move-to-uketc.27IMFWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO),TooSlowforTooLong,April2016(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/pdf/text.pdf),TheEconomicConsequencesofBrexit:ATaxingDecision,(OECD)April2016(http://www.oecd.org/economy/The-Economic-consequences-of-Brexit-27-april-2016.pdf).PresidentObama’svisittotheUK,alsoinApril2016,towishHerMajestyahappybirthday.28Thereareothermoregeneralreferenceseg.“Atthesametime,long-termgovernmentbondyieldsinGermany,Japan,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates”(WEOPage7),“fiscalpolicyisprojectedtobe…somewhatcontractionary(sic)inJapan,Spain,andtheUnitedKingdom”(WEOPage14)etc.29WEOPage24.30“PotentialExitoftheUnitedKingdomfromtheEuropeanUnion-ABritishexitfromtheEuropeanUnioncouldposemajorchallengesforboththeUnitedKingdomandtherestofEurope.Negotiationsonpostexitarrangementswouldlikelybeprotracted,resultinginanextendedperiodofheighteneduncertaintythatcouldweighheavilyonconfidenceandinvestment,allthewhileincreasingfinancialmarketvolatility.AU.K.exitfromEurope’ssinglemarketwouldalsolikelydisruptandreducemutualtradeandfinancialflows,curtailingkeybenefitsfromeconomiccooperationandintegration,suchasthoseresultingfromeconomiesofscaleandefficientspecialization.”WEOPage26.31“IntheUnitedKingdom,theplannedJunereferendumonEuropeanUnionmembershiphasalreadycreateduncertaintyforinvestors;a“Brexit”coulddosevereregionalandglobaldamagebydisruptingestablishedtradingrelationships.”WEOForewordxiii32“IntheUnitedKingdom,growth(forecastat1.9percentin2016and2.2percentin2017)isexpectedtobedrivenbydomesticprivatedemandsupportedbylowerenergypricesandabuoyantpropertymarket,whichhelptooffsetheadwindsfromfiscalconsolidationandheighteneduncertaintyaheadoftheJunereferendumonEuropeanUnionmembership.”WEOPage19.33AngelGurría,Secretary-GeneraloftheOECD,seemedratheranimatedatthepresentationofhisreport.FormerministerintheMexicangovernmentandoneofthearchitectsofNAFTA,heisaclassicbiggovernmentman.Movingeffortlesslyfromoneworldbodytothenext…34OECDPage32.35Seehttp://www.patrickminford.netforthefreetradeargumentsforLeave.Seehttp://www.brexitthemovie.comforaquickideaoftheBrexiteers’viewofBritainoutsideoftheEU.

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nationalisticpolicies,includingprotectionistones”36.TheOECDdoconcedeBritainmaywishto“improvethebusinessclimate”postBrexitbutevenitsbestcaseassumesitwouldonlydosoataspeeditcalculatespartlyfromMrBrown’sMinistry,hardlyknownasagreatde-regulatingone,andinitsworstcasethatitwoulddonothing37.ItsfundamentallyflawedviewoftheUKishighlightedbyitspointingoutthatdespitebusinessoppositiontolabourmarketregulationandtheWorkingTimeDirective,the“politicalconstellationafterBrexit”wouldprobablynotheedthat38.Perhapsthebestexampleofitspartisannatureisinitssummationofthefinancialsector.Highlightingtherisksitthen,aproposofnothing,mentionsthatSwitzerlandexportsanevengreaterproportionofitsbankingservicestotheEUbutthattheygotagooddeal39.

Thetruth,astheIMFpointout,isthattheworldeconomyisindangerofslowingdownfurther.AlltheproblemsthatfacethedevelopedworldaretheresultsofexactlythekindofoverregulatedbiggovernmentpoliciestheEUandtheUShaveinflicteduponthemselves40.TheUKbycomparison,isthehealthiestadvancedeconomyexceptingGermany,andtheyaremiredintheEurozone.ThefundamentalsoftheBritisheconomyarestrongwiththehighestlabourforceparticipationrateintheG7,lowunemploymentandsomeofthelowesttaxes41.Aswellasbeingthetenthmostcompetitivenation(accordingtotheWorldEconomicForum),Britain’sGDPpercapitaisrisingyearonyearandgovernmentspendingtoGDPhasfallenfroma(criminal)highofjustunder50%in2010tojustover43%42.

TheproblemsfacingtheUKeconomyareverydifferentfromtherestofthedevelopedworld.Theylackjobs,Britonsneedbetterpayingones.Theyarehighlytaxed,theUKhasproventhatlowertaxesleadtoahealthiereconomy.ArethererisksfromBrexit?Ofcourse,butthedangersand‘uncertainty’aremainlyduetoworriesoverfuturepolicydirection.AlltheveiledthreatsandwarningsarebasedonamisunderstandingofthemotivesbehindBrexitandthefactthatnoneoftheseexpertshaveanyrealideaofwhatwouldhappenintheevent43.NotonevoiceontheOutsidehascalledfora‘buryyourheadinthesand’isolationiststrategyandeventhemoststridentvoicesonimmigrationonlycallforrestrictionstothepotentiallyunlimitednumbersEUmembershipimplies.Thereisalsotheunquantifiableconsiderationthata‘Brexitbounce’couldoccur.TheScottishreferendumshowedadynamicunleashingofanimalspiritsdespitetheresultandthereisnoreasontosupposeitwillbedifferentsouthoftheborder.

36WEOForewordxiii.37OECDPage31.38“DespitelabourmarketregulationbeingamongtheleastrestrictiveintheOECD,manyUKfirmsfindEUlabourmarketregulationtootight,inparticulartheTemporaryAgencyWorkersDirectiveandtheWorkingTimeDirective.However,thereisnoguaranteethatthepoliticalconstellationafterBrexitwouldensuremorebusinessfriendlylegislationinsubstitutionofabolishedEUlaws.”OECDPage29.39“TheEUabsorbsaround45%ofSwissexportsoffinancialservices,despitetheabsenceofpassporting(sic)rightsforitsbanks,butSwitzerlandnegotiatedafavourableagreementwhenitwasplanningtojointheEUintheearly1990s”.OECDPage14.

40Seethesectionon‘SecularStagnation,Hysteresis,andLowerPotentialOutput’WEO,page26etcetc.

41LabourForceParticipationRate–UK78.3%,USA63%,Japan59.2%,Canada65.9%,Germany60.3%,France56.1%,Italy64.5%.Eurozoneaverage56.8%.UnemploymentRate-UK5.1%,USA5%,Japan3.2%,Canada7.1%,Germany4.2%,France10.3%,Italy11.4%.Eurozoneaverage10.2%.TaxratesarecalculatedasanadditionofthemarginalrateofPersonalIncomeTaxandCorporateTax.Sales,SocialSecurityandSintaxesetchavebeenexcluded.–UK65%,USA78.6%,Japan83.9%,Canada55.5%,Germany77.15%,France83.6%,Italy80.3%.Eurozoneaverage66.7%.(Sourcehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com).

42Sourcehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/indicators.43TheviewthatBrexitisanisolationistorprotectionistmoveisaconstantrefrainfromthoseopposedtoit.TheCentreforEuropeanReform(CER)makeasimilarcasetotheIMFandOECDintheir2014reportTheEconomicConsequencesofLeavingtheEUwithsimilardoubtsoverpolicydirection.

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TheDeal

LeavingasidewhetherrichbankerswouldwishtopayFrenchtaxrates,orthegeneralopinionoftheBritishpeopleonwhethersuchanexodusisdesirableornot,thebestwaytocapitaliseonBrexitis‘tokeepcalmandcarryon’.The‘uncertainty’isreminiscentoftheworriesoverahungparliamentin2010.AclearstatementbythePrimeMinsterwouldallaysuchfears.ThegovernmentshouldnotinvokeArticle5044untilithasagreeduponthecorrectstrategy.ACabinetreshuffleandprobablyanewBudgetwillbeneeded.ThePrimeMinsterwouldthenappointateamofnegotiatorsheadedbythreepoliticianswhoarenotingovernmentandbackedbythebestbusiness,legalandcivilservicebrainsthatcanbeprovided.ThegovernmentshouldagreeonthedealBritainwouldoffertheEUbeforeenteringthenegotiationsandtasktheteamaccordingly.

ManyofthefearsofBrexitstemfromaflawedviewofBritain’spositionvis-a-vistheEU.TheUKrivalstheUSastheEU’sbiggesttradingpartner.Givingthemunfetteredaccessto‘TreasureIsland’isahugebargainingchip.InadditionallofthosehyperbolicwarningsapplytotheEUaswell.Itisnotintheinterestofeithersidetodragoutnegotiationsoveradecadeordescendintosomekindoftradewar.AboldpositiveoffertotheEUcouldeasilyleadtoamutuallybeneficialagreement.

TheBritishpositionwouldbethus:TheresultofthereferendumisarejectionofthepoliticalprojectthatistheEU.ItisnotarejectionofEurope.Britonswishtotrade,co-operateandhelpimprovethelivesofEuropeans,theyjustdonotwishtoberuledbythem.Britainisaspecialcase.ItisoneofthelargestEuropeaneconomies.IthasitsownseatontheUNSecurityCouncilandisoneofEurope’stworealmilitarypowers.IfoneofGermany,FranceorItalywerenotintheEUtheywouldhaveaspecialdealduetothesizeoftheireconomyalone.

Thegovernmentshouldbepreparedtoofferthefreemovementofgoodsandservicesbutnotpeoples.AfasttrackvisaserviceshouldbeagreedbetweenBritainandtheEUbasedonjoboffers.RighttoremainanddualpassportsshouldbeofferedtoallEUnationalscurrentlyresidinginBritainandareciprocalarrangementforallBritishnationalsintheEU.InexchangefortheunquestioningagreementbyBritainthatallMemberStateshaveindeedfollowedtheEU’sbyzantineregulations45,theEUwillacceptaBritishStandardsCertificate(BSC)asequallymeetingthoseregulations.TheUKwillallowfreeaccesstoitsmarketforEUgoodsandservicesinreturnforareciprocalarrangementacceptingfreeaccesstotheEU’smarketforBritishgoodsandservicesholdingaBSC.Furthermore,theUKwillcontributetocertainEUprogrammesonavoluntarybasisdependentonmutuallybeneficentintereststhatmakesuchinvolvementinevitable.OtherarrangementssuchastheEuropeanArrestWarrant,Britain’sinvolvementinEuropolandthesharingofintelligencedatacanbedecidedseparately.Lastly,thegovernmentshouldoffertohelpmaintaintheEU’scoastalboardersseparatelyfromNATOcommitments.

AnewBoardofTradeshouldbesetuptooverseetheBritishStandardsCertificate.AsmanyoftheregulationstheEUpassesdownareglobal,Britainwouldhavetoacceptthemanyway,“theEUisthereforeincreasinglybecomingapointlessmiddleman”46.TheUKwouldhoweverhaveaseatonthosebodies47thatagreeontheseruleswhilecurrentlyitistheEUthatrepresentitsandtwentysevenothersinterests.ThenewBoardofTradewouldofferhelptoallfirmswishingtoexport.IftheywishtotradewiththeEUtheywouldneedacertificateandtheBoardwouldhelpthemmeetthenecessaryregulations.Inreality,asthestartingpointisthatBritainalreadyhastheseregulations,theBoardwouldonlyneedtohelpinthefutureaspathsdiverge.IfBritishfirmsonlywishtotradewithintheUKthentheywouldonlyneedtomeetcurrentandfutureregulationsandwillhavenoneedofthecertificate.Thusanyfuturede-regulationBritainconductsneednotaffectEU-boundgoodsandservices.TheBoardwouldoffersimilarfacilitiestofirmswishingtoexporttoothermarkets.WheretradebarriersdonotpreventBritishfirmsoperatingtheywouldbefreetooffertheirproductsontheirownmerit.ThecertificatewouldimplyacertainqualityandtheBoardshouldofferhelptoexportersinreturn44…oftheLisbonTreaty,triggeringthetwoyearcountdowntodeparture.45Includingthetacitassumptionthatthemeanaverageofthe27MemberStatesinterestsisthebestthatcanbeachieved,orindeedhopedfor.46SeeRolandSmith,TheLiberalCaseFor‘Leave’,http://www.adamsmith.org/the-liberal-case-for-leave.47ManyareUNbodies,othersincludetheWTO,ILO,IMOetc.

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formeetingthosestandards.ThegovernmentshouldbeactivelypromotingtheBSCinanyfuturetradedeals48.

ThereneedbenothingacrimoniousinBritainleavingtheEU.Ifitisconsideredamarriage,therearenochildrentocomplicatematters,theUK’schildrenhavelongflownthenestandsetuphomeelsewhere.TheEUwishestointegrateintoadeeperunionthatBritaindoesnotwishtobepartof,indeedoutsideoftheEuroandSchengenitisalreadyonaseparatecourse.IftheEUisconfidentinitsmodelitshouldhavenoprobleminBritainwishingtodemure:ifitissuccessful,theybenefit;iftheiropinionisthattheUKwon’tandmustbepreventedfromharmingitselfthenBritonsmayaswelldecidetheyareseenasaslavestate…

48Thegovernment’saimshouldbetogobeyondtheEUandbecomethegoldstandardforqualityaroundtheworld.TheEUhastocompromiseforallitsMemberstohavealevelplayingfieldbyoverregulatingthosewhodonotneedthemtoensurethosethatdocanclaimtomeetthesamestandard.Tocompete,theUKoutsideoftheEUwouldfindsmarterwaystomeetglobaltradingstandardswithoutoverburdeningbusiness.InthefutureBritainmayhavetoissueasecondclassBSCtocovertheEUbutthatisforthelong-termbywhichtime,basedonhistoricaltrendsandcurrentdirections,theEU’sshareofBritishexportswillhavefallentosuchalowlevelthatapplicationforsuchacertificatewouldprovetobejustthecostofdoingbusinesswiththeEU.

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TheFutureforanIndependentUK

“Nameacityorstatethatfailedbecauseittaxedtoolittle?”

GregAbbott,GovernorofTexas,May201649.

AstheOECDhighlight,thelong-termfearthatBritainoutsideoftheEUwouldleadtoadeclineininvestmentisagainsubjecttopolicydecisions.ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)intheUKisoneofthedriversoftheeconomy.AfreetradedealsuchasthatoutlinedabovewouldobviouslyallaythosefearsbutBritainshouldgofurther.Thegovernmentshouldtaketheopportunitytheshort-term‘uncertainty’willaffordtodrasticallyrevisefiscalpolicy,toolongignoredinfavourofmonetaryinthe‘AgeoftheTechnocrats’.FDIisdependentontherateofreturnforeignfirmscanexpectfromUKinvestment.ThegovernmenthasmadetherightmoveinbringingdownCorporationTax50andshouldcontinuetocutthisandCapitalGainsTaxfurther.InadditionitshouldcuttherateonincomefromdividendstoencourageinvestmentinBritishfirms51.CurrentlyitalmostmirrorsIncomeTaxratesbutiscalculatedaspartofone’spersonalincome.Thegovernmentshouldscrapthemarginalratealtogether.Ideallyitshouldtakeincomefromdividendsoutofthepersonalrateandsetupa10%flattax.ThiswillleadtohugeinvestmentintheBritisheconomy52.Theaddedbenefitwillbetodemocratisethestockmarketasgreaternumberswillbeattractedin,concurrentlywideningthetaxbase.Nexttimethereisa‘shareholderspring’itwon’tjustbethe‘jobsfortheboys’crowd.

Thegovernmentshouldalsocuttaxesonthenon-domiciled.SecretaryKerryiscorrect,theworldis“borderless”,atleastforits‘super-rich’.DuetoBritain’sliberalisedlaws,theworld’saffluentclassesalreadyownsomuchpropertyintheUK;theyshouldbeincentivisedtospendtheirtimeandwealthinBritain,notbedrivenaway.Lowerrateswillencouragethemtoinvest.Thiswillleadtoariseinproductivityaseconomicoutputexpands.Greaterreturnsleadtoreducedunemployment,higherwagesandthereforehighertaxreceiptsdespitethelowerrates.Privatewealthcreateswealth,notinefficientgovernmentspending.

OverallUKtaxratesaretoohigh.Thereisadeeplyrootedfallacyinpublicdiscoursethatraisingtherateoftaxwillgenerategreaterincome.Theevidenceofthelastcenturyprovestheoppositeandformorerecentexamplestrythisdecade.ItmaybeafacileargumentthattherisesinVATandthetoprateofIncomeTax53in2010-11causedthestagnantgrowthofthefollowingyearsbutthefiguresareundeniable54.Hightaxratesarethebedrockofbiggovernmentandnecessitateineptandsometimesdamagingspendingtojustifythem.Itisessentiallyaconjobpulledonthetaxpayerbywhosoeveristherulingelite.Biggovernmentcanatbestofferahealthy2%growthratewhichis,coincidentally,justenoughtokeepthoseemployedbybiggovernmentwealthy,andthosedependentonitdocile.Thisisthepoorestambitionforanycountryandwillleadtodecline.Bysimplifyingthelaws,loweringtherateandbroadeningthebasegreaterincomesaregeneratedanditisactuallythepoorestwhobenefitwhiletherichestenduppayingmoreasincomegoestothepublicpurseratherthanthehighlypaidaccountantswhounderstandthealchemyoftakingthehighestpaidintothelowestbracket.

Oncethegreaterrevenueshavecomeinfromthedividendtax,thegovernmentshouldintroduceaflattaxonallpersonalincomeratherthantheprogressivesystemcurrentlyinplace.AtaxpayerearningtheaverageUKsalarywillpaythesameproportionofhisincomeasataxpayerearningamillion.Thatwayeveryonewouldtruly‘allbeinittogether’.Flattaxrateshaveworkedallovertheworld.Someofthemostsuccessfulanddynamiceconomieshavethem

49TheRicochetPodcastEp.303:‘BiggerInTexas’,availablethroughiTunesorathttps://ricochet.com.50From28%in2010to20%in2016.Sourcehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/corporate-tax-rate.51Theauthordoesnotownanysharesnorreceiveanydividends.Theauthordoesnotownanyoffshorewealthnordoesheearnenoughtopaythehigheroradditionalrates.Nor(tothebestofhisknowledge)doanyofhisimmediatefamily.52Thoughthegovernmentmaywishtotakemeasurestopreventsalariesbeingpaidcompletelyindividends,amoveinsuchadirectionwouldnotbesuchabadthing.53‘Sales’Taxfrom15-20%,Incomefrom40-50%.54Sourcehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/sales-tax-rate,http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/personal-income-tax-rateandhttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth.

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butthe‘PoliticsofEnvy’intheUKpreventsevendiscussionofsuchcrazyideasthatareproventoincreaserevenues55.

55ForadetailedlookattheefficacyofflattaxesaroundtheworldseeTheEndofProsperity2008byLaffer,Moore&Tanous.

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ThePoliticalQuestions…

ThecurrentgovernmentisinauniquepositiontochangeBritain.WhilethereseemstobeariseinsocialistmovementsinboththeUKandAmericatheyareinnowaymainstream.DespiteSenatorSandersunlookedforsuccessintheDemocraticprimaries,ananalysisofhissupportshowstheyarenotthepoorest,whovoteforhisrival56.SimilarlyintheUK,theoldLabourmovementthathasrecentlytakencontrolofthemainoppositionisanunholyallianceofunreformedhard-leftistsandyoungeraffluentvotersattractedbythefreshsmellofmustyoldideasandforwhomitisashortstepfromsocialmediatosocialism.Howevertheleftisintellectuallybankrupt,theirideasdisprovenbythehistorytherightforgottoteach.TheoldNewLabourfactionisreducedtoclingingtothebiggovernmentstatistsonthecontinentwhilethenewOldLabourgroupseetheEUascorporatemenaceandwishtorewindtheEuropeanclockbacktothe1970s.Inthe2015GeneralElectionthepublicrevoltedatthethoughtofasocialist-lightparty,nevermindasocialistone.Thisisnottoassumethattheoppositionareunelectable.Therearepoliticalcyclesjustasthereareeconomiconesandforalltheirfaultstheyarestillthealternativegovernment.TheConservativepartyhasmadeitselfelectableagainbutthatisnottosayitisparticularlyloved.Avotetoleavewouldunquestionablybeavoteforself-determinationandyoucannothavepoliticalfreedomswithouteconomicones.Aradicalmovebythegovernmentcouldentrenchlowertaxratesforgood,toparaphraseMiltonFriedman“theimportantthingistoestablishapoliticalclimateofopinionwhichwillmakeitpoliticallyunprofitableforthewrongpeopletodothewrongthing”.

Thereasontheleftcangetanytractionisduetotheperceivedfailuresofcapitalism.Onecanmakeanargumentfornationalisedutilitiesorrailwaysonthebasisthatnooneisofferingtobuildanewpipeintoyourhomeorintroducenewtracksformag-levtrains.Thecompetitionprincipleunderpinningthefreemarketgetsnosuctionhere.Howeverthisistoforgetthatnationalisationstymiesinnovation.Itisanacceptanceofthestatusquo.Anacquiescencetotheideathatthisisasgoodasitgets.Asurrendertomanageddecline.

56Seehttp://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/24/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-poor-voters/index.html,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/22/younger-votes-didnt-come-through-for-bernie-sanders-because-they-almost-never-do,etcetc.

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…AndTheAnswers

Inrecenttimes,puttingone’strustinthefreemarkethasbeengivenabadname.Whetheritisforthe2008crashorthebehaviourleadinguptoit,capitalismhasbeenunderattack.Yetitwasnotthefreemarketthatcrashedtheworldeconomybutgovernmentinterventions.InbothBritainandtheUS,theeconomicgainsofthefreemarketgovernmentsofLadyThatcherandPresidentReaganweresquanderedbythosethatfollowed.WhilePresidentClintongovernedasacentristandwasmoderatedbyaRepublican-controlledHouse,theBushAdministrationthatsucceededendedupspendinginamostun-Republicanway.ThesizeofMrBlairmajoritieseffectivelymadehimanelecteddictator.AfterfollowingtheeconomicplansofConservativeChancellorKennethClarkeintheirfirstterm,NewLabourwentonaveryOldLabourspendingspreeintheirsubsequentones.Theresultsweretoentrenchcronycapitalisminoligopolisticmarketswhilegovernmentspendingandregulationsgrew.Byinterferinginthemarketstheycreatedbubbles.Addictedtohightaxreceipts,assuredthatalltheirregulatorshadeverythingincheckandconvincedtheycouldmanipulatethemarketstosolvedomestichousingpolicy,theyallowedfirmstobecometoobigtofail,thenencouragedthemtolendandspendlikeitwas1999andwewereallattheendofhistory.Whenthemarkettriedtocorrectitselfthesystemicriskpanickedpolicymakersintothebiggesttransfersofdebtever,yetseemedtoabsolveanyoneofresponsibility.

Hencefreemarketcapitalism,theforcethathasraisedmorepeopleoutofpovertythananyotherism,hasoneoftheworstreputationsimaginable.AskyourselfwhykeysectorsaredominatedbytheBigThree,Four,FiveorSix?Biggovernmentandbigbusinessgohandinhand,justlookatthebiggestlobbyistsinBrusselsandthenchecktheirkickbacksornotsobigtaxreturns.Biggovernmentpassesbiglawsthatmakeitimpossibleforallbutthebiggestfirmstonavigate.Biggovernmenttellsyouwhenyoucantakeyourchildrenonholiday,andthebigholidayprovidersraisepricesasdemandrisesagainstsupply.Biggovernmentsaysyoucannotcareforyourelderlyparentbecauseithastakenallyourmoneysoyoucannotaffordthebigpricesthebigcarehomeproviderscharge.Biggovernmentsays‘don’tworry,we’lllookafteryou’,andthenproceedstodosointhemostinefficientmannerwhiletrappingitsdependentsinthemorassitcreates.

Government’sroleshouldbetoprotectitpeople.Itshouldhavefirm,clearlyunderstoodandlimitedlaws.Itmustbewillingandabletoprosecutethoselawsiftheyarebroken57.Itshouldnothavealegalandregulatorysystemsocomplexthatitsownagentscan’tunderstandthem.Ifsectorsaremasteredbytoofewplayersthenitsregulatorsshouldlookatbarrierstoentryortoomuchinorganicgrowth,otherwiseitmusttrustthefreemarket,itis“thebestpathtoprosperity”58.

Anexampleofthefreemarketatworkisnowsoentrenchedinmodernlifewetakeitforgranted.Ithasbecomesoubiquitouswecarryitinourpocketswithoutathought.It’scalledtheInternet59.Inthefuture,connectivityandtechnologicalchangeswillrendertradingblocksliketheEUcompletelyobsolete.Imaginetheimpactof3Dprinting.AfirminNorthernIrelanddesignsandsellsaproduct,letussaytables.ItfindsapartnerinThailand,sendsthemthefile,theyprintoutthemodel,modifythedesignabit,perhapstosuitThaitabletastes,andsenditback.Theytoandfrountileveryoneishappy.BeforeyouknowitbespokeNorthernIrishtablesarecompetingintheThaimarket.WhereistheEUneededinthat?

InleavingtheEUBritainwouldhavetospendmoreonitsborderservice;investmentshouldalsobemadeinthemilitarywithnewnavalspendingapriority;bothserviceswillneedmanysmallershipsinthefuture.StrategicinterestsintheMediterraneanandacommitmenttotheEU’sdefencewillbethepricetagoffreetrade.Asthegovernmentseemsreadytonationalisethesteelindustryitmayaswellgivethemsomethingtodo.Shipbuildingandnavalexpansionshouldhelpthewholecountry,fromScotlandtoCornwall.Ifgovernmentspendingcaneverbeagoodthing,thendefenceoftherealmissurelyit.

57AsProfessorNiallFergursonarguedinhissecondBBCReithLecture“TheRuleofLawanditsEnemies”26thJune2012.58LarryKudlow,adinfinitum…59ThoughsomearguetheInternethasbecomedominatedbybigplayerssuchasGoogle,TwitterandFacebook,youcanstillchoosenottousethem.

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TheWorldOutlook

IftheUSAisabouttocrippleitselfwiththepseudo-socialismofSenatorSanders,thetrilliondollarstimulusofSecretaryClintonorthethreatenedprotectionismofMrTrump60,thenwhowillguaranteethetradelinkstheworldeconomydependsupon?CertainlytheUKcannotdosoalone,butitcanshowtheway.Thisisnotsomekindof21stcenturygun-boatdiplomacy,itisaninheritanceanddutytotheworld.IfBritainwillnotstandupfortrade,justice,theruleoflawandthevaluesunderpinningtheglobalsystemwhowill?IfAmericacontinuesastheWest’ssugardaddythen,whiletheymayheaveasighofarelief,Britonsstillhaveadutytohelpthem.IfyoubelieveitisimpossibletocuttaxesandachievesuchambitionsthenrecallthatPresidentKennedysettheUSthetaskoflandingamanonthemoonandreturninghimsafelytotheearthbytheendofthe1960s,whilesimultaneoussettingoutaplantocutthetoprateoftaxby21percentagepoints.Theydiditintwoyearsanditremainedunchangedforthenextseventeen61.

GreatBritainhasauniqueopportunitytoshapethe21stcentury.Thechallengesaheadarethesameproblemsalladvancednationsinthisworldwillhavetosolve,withaqueueofdevelopingcountriestofollow.Ifitcanfindthesolutionstheycanbeexportedaroundtheglobe.Oneofthebiggestishealthcare.Howcanamoderncivilisedcountryguaranteehealthcarefreeatthepointofuseandpayforit?Ifananswertothisquestionisnotfoundthenagingpopulationswillcausethesocialcontractbetweenthegenerationstobreakdown.

Astechnologyleadstocutbacksfromlargeemployersgovernmentswillbefacedwithchoices;theycaneithertryregulatingthosetechnologiesandtaxingtheever-decreasingproductiveclassestoshower‘helicoptermoney’ontherest;ordelivereconomicfreedomsandallowtheirpopulationstousethoseinnovationstothebestoftheirabilitiesbytrustingtheirdynamism.TheEUisheadingintheformerdirection.Avotetoleavewouldbethelatter,avoteforthe21stcentury.

ItisoftensaidthatthetwogreatestchallengesfacingusareglobalclimatechangeandRadicalIslamicTerrorism.Thesetwoproblemsareinmanywaysentwined.Theworldbuysoilfromthemiddle-easttokeepWesterncivilisationworkingandcreateslargeCarbonDioxideemissionsintheprocess.InreturnthevastwealthintheregionhasledtoamosaicofoligarchiesofvaryingstabilityofwhichsomepromoteamorefundamentalIslamicmessagetokeeptheirpopulationsrepressedandthenexportthatmessagearoundtheglobe.OthershavegoneevenfurtherastheworldwitnessedonSeptember11th200162.UnlesswaysarefoundtopowerourcountriesandrunourtransportthatdoesnothaveoilasitscoreelementwewillneverreduceCO2emissionsnorhaveachanceofdefeatingFundamentalistIslamicTerrorism.Thesearechallengessharedbypartnersaroundtheworldandonlytechnologicalinnovationandthefreemarketcansolvethem.Biggovernmentssuchasthe‘CoalitionoftheDefeated’thatistheEUwillonlystiflethefreemarketandwillpotentiallyalloweitherthe‘medievalthugs’orthe‘eco-loonfringe’todestroyorde-industrialiseourcivilisation.

60ArationalanalysisofMrTrump’spoliciesisunavailableduetothecontradictorynatureofhispronouncements.Hisfiscalplanisverypro-business,especiallyforSMEs,butsomeofhistradepoliciesarereminiscentofthosefromthe1930’sthatcausedtheGreatDepression.61From91%in1963to70%by1965.(Sourcehttp://taxfoundation.org/article/us-federal-individual-income-tax-rates-history-1913-2013-nominal-and-inflation-adjusted-brackets).ItremaineduntiltheReagancutsofthe1980’s.62Thisisnotanaccusationagainstanygovernmentintheregion.Itisafactthat15ofthe19thatdaywereSaudinationals,nolinktoanyofficialSaudigovernmenthasbeenprovennorwoulditbeintheirintereststocarryoutsuchanattack.

21

CulturalProblems

ItisarealconcernthatsomanyyoungpeopleinBritainandacrossEuropearesowillingtogiveupthelivestheirparentsandgrandparentshavebuiltforthemintheWestandembraceamedievaldeathcult.WhydosomanysecondandthirdgenerationchildrenofmigrantsinmodernBritaintodayineffectdecidetomoveandliveundertheSpanishInquisition?ThisisnotevenaspecificallyIslamictrait;whydoyoungpeopleofHinduorigindecidetheywillhaveabetterlifeinIndiawheretheeconomicopportunitiesarenowsosimilar?

WhiletheUKtodayiswelcomingandtoleranttherehavebeenmanyproblemsalongtheroad.Whydoesitletthelegacyoftheseproblemspoisontoday’sBritainwhenitcanboastatolerancetominoritiesthatsurpassesallothers?Yesitisneverperfect,butit’salongwayfromthe‘NoBlacks,NoJews,NoIrish’signsofyesteryear.AtthetimeofwritingthewinneroftheMayoraltyofLondonisamannamedSadiqKhan.TheBritishstarsoftheLondonOlympicsin2012wereawomanofmixedraceheritageandamanborninSomalia.AkeyfigureinthecurrentEnglandcricketteam,andoneofthefewtoplayallthreeformats,isadevoutMuslimwithwhiskerssovoluminousthefanshavehasfondlyendowedhimwiththesobriquet‘thebeardthatisfeared’.IntheupcomingEuropeanfootballChampionshipsthecurrentEnglandmanagercouldpickanoutfieldteamofcompletelynon-whiteEnglishplayersonmeritandnoonewouldbataneyelid.

Whatistheproblemthen?WhydoesasmallminorityofBritishminoritiessorejectmodernBritainandalltheopportunitiesitoffers?Whatcanaso-calledpost-moderncountryoffer?ThisisafailingofthecollectiveBritishpeople.TheyhavemovedawayfromtheirChristianheritageandassocietyhassecularisedithasalsolostitsself-confidence.Anewpuritanismstalkstheland,thespawnofbiggovernments’favouritetopdown,politicallycorrectideologies.FreeSpeechandtheFreePress,thefoundationsofBritishliberty,areitstargets.ThoseemployedbygovernmentarenowpaidtoactasLordsandMastersratherthanPublicServants;theviewincreasinglybecomes‘whatcanIgetoutofthestate?’insteadof‘howcanwedobetter?’Cynicismhassetintothenationalpsychetoanalarmingextent63.Britonshavepost-colonialguiltdrilledintothem.Theyworrythattoevenaskquestionsaboutimmigrationnumberssomehowmakesthemracistratherthanrational.

Immigrationisagoodthing.Anymoderndynamiceconomyneedsmigrantstogrow.Migrantsaregenerallydrivenbytheattractionofopportunitiesdeniedtothem.Theybringenergyandevolutionwiththem.Manyalsodonotremainindefinitelybutinreturningtotheirhomestheycreatelonglastingrelationshipswiththecountriestheyhaveworkedin.Ifsomeareattractedbywelfarebenefitsthenitisthedutyofthehostnationtoeliminatethoseincentives.HowevermembershipoftheEUprohibitssuchactions.Emigrationisalsoagoodthing.Itfosterslinkswithfriendsaroundtheglobewhileskillsandinnovationslearntabroadareappliedbackathome.Uncontrolledimmigrationposesseriousriskstosocietalcohesionandplacesstrainsoncreakingpublicservices.Toomuchemigrationrepresentsalossofskills,experienceandpotential.WhileBritainshouldbewelcomingtothosewhohavetheurgetoseekabetterjobandlife,itmustalsobemindfulnottostealthehumancapitaloffriendlynationsnordenyopportunitiestoitsownpeople.21stCenturyBritainmustfindtherightbalancetothispolicy.ThiscanonlybedoneoutsidetheEU.

63Declaringaninterest,theauthorisaself-confessedcynic.

22

CulturalSolutions

ForthosethatsaythattheUnionoftheKingdomitselfmaynotsurvive,areaffirmationofBritishvaluesistheantidote.ItmaybeappealingtosomeEnglishmanforsuchabreakuptooccur,butarumpUKdominatedbyitsstrongestmember,oranindependentEnglandforthatmatter,wouldbeapiraticalinfluenceonworldaffairsinsteadofapositiveone.ItistheideaofBritainasasharedheritagethathasbeenunderminedbytheUK’smembershipoftheEU.

Understandingscienceandtechnologyisthekeytothefuturebutthepastmustnotbeignored.WhilegreateruseoftheInternetandthegovernment’stendencytoliberaliseeducationwillbearlong-termfruits,thegovernmentshouldinsistthatEnglishandHistorybemandatorytillA-Level,evenifnottestedbeyondGCSE.AllschoolchildrenshouldknowtheirShakespeareandBritishHistory;bothteachmoreaboutlifethananycitizenshipclasscan.ItisacuriousinanitythatHerMajesty’sDepartmentforEducationpreachesCitizenshiptoHerMajesty’ssubjects.IstheresomethingwrongwithchoosingoneofthemanyexamplesShakespeareprovides?Coriolanustellsofanationalherowhoinfrustratedprideturnsagainsthishomeland.WrittenasoneofmanybiographiesbytheGreekPlutarchinthetimeoftheRomanEmpire,theseinspiredsomeofShakespeare’sfinestworks64.AretherenotuniversaltruthsinatalerecordedbyaGreekfifteencenturiesbeforeShakespeare’sbirthaboutaRomanfivecenturiesbeforehis?WhileShakespeareisconsideredanationaltreasure,fewseemwillingtousethelessonsheteachesinsteadofthediversitystudiessomehavewastedtensofthousandsofpoundson.AsSpiroAgnewmightsayifhewerealivetoday:“Educationhasbeenredefined,atthedemandoftheuneducated,tosuittheideasoftheuneducated”.HowcanyoungpeoplebeexpectedtoappreciateParliamentarydemocracyiftheydonotknowabouttheCivilWar?SharedBritishhistoryisthecoreoftheUnion,yetfewScotsrealisehowmanyoftheirforebearsbuiltthemodernworldundertheBritishEmpire.Worsestill,fewBritonsseemtoknowthatitwasBritainthatfirstoutlawedtheslavetrade,attheheightofherdeathstrugglewithNapoleon,andpolicedthepolicy.Thestorymightbelongandcomplexandtherewerefaultsalongtheway,butinsteadofanhonestappraisaloftheEmpire,whichessentiallyexplainshowweallgothere,thepreferenceistokeepquietonthematterandallowitalltobelabelledasafascistenterprise.

AvotetoleavewouldbeavoteforBritishvalues.Thesecannotbespelledoutbyanypoliticiangivingaspeech.Theyareintangible,whichisperhapswhythereisnosinglewrittenBritishconstitution;trydescribingwhyonecanhearapieceofmusicbyVaughanWilliamsforthefirsttime,blindsotospeak,andinstinctivelyknowitisEnglish?OrwhyonecansitandlistentothefiddleplayerinanEdinburghpubandfeelCelticroots?Theyarethereasonthatmenfromallovertheworldtravelledvastdistancestodefendaparticularideaofliberty,nomatteriftheyhadeverevenbeentoBritainorevenstillwantedtoberuledbyher.TheyarethereasontheRoyalfamilyarestillheldinsuchhighregard,anotherwiseabsurdityinamoderndemocracy.Theyarebasedonasharedhistory,afeelingthatsomethingspecialhasbeenhandeddownbyourancestors,andthatitisadutytopassitontoourchildren.

TheEUcanneverinspiresuchquitepride,understatedloyaltyorgentlepatriotismthatrepresentthesumofBritishvalues.Itcanonlyunderminethem.

64JuliusCaesar,AnthonyandCleopatraetc.

23

TheNextChapter...

TheUK’simplausiblemembershipoftheEuropeanUnionwillbedecidedupononJune23rd.IfBritonsvotetoRemaintheywillbeclosingthedooronauniquehistoryinexchangeforasatellitestatustoadyingstar.ThereisnothingtofearinBritainexitingtheEU.IftheUKvotestoleaveitwillbethestartofanewchapter,notanewbook.ItwouldbeBritaindeclaring,asitalwayshas,thatitisopentotheworld.Thatitisconfidentofitsownplaceinthatworld.Thatitdoesnotneedtobepartofanybiggovernmentprojectbecauseitisscaredofthemodernworld.Avotetoleavewouldnotbeastepinthedark.ItwouldnotbeBritainburyingitsheadinthesand.Itwouldbeasignalthatitisconfidentenoughtobuildthefuture.Acountrywillingtostandupandsay‘thisistheplacetobe’.Anationwhosegovernmentbringsopportunitiestoitspeople,whoactsasatrampolineratherthancatchingtheminanensnaringnet.Asocietywelcomingtomigrants,thatsays‘wanttocomeandjoinus?Great,herearetherules’.AUnitedKingdomthatisproudofitslonghistory,optimisticaboutwhatliesaheadandwillingtoworkwitheverybodyelsetomakethatpossible.

ThispaperhasattemptedtopointouttheincompatibilityofBritishmembershipoftheEuropeanUnion.Ithasalsobeentheaimtodosowithoutanyoftheacrimonythatunfortunatelyhassocharacterisedthedebatethusfar.Ifithasfailedthenonewouldhopethisisduetotheauthor’sownshortcomingsratherthantheargumentitself.Thereisabetterway,therightwaytoleave….

NicholasTurner,May2016.

24

Postscript….

Ifyouhavemadeitthroughtheabovepleasebeadvisedthatwhileyourendeavouristobecommended,itisreallynotworthlosingfriendsoverthisissue.Whetheryouhavebeenswayedeitherwaybytheabove,itwillallbeneuteredbythegreatGodofourtimes…

Yesladiesandgentleman,thebi-annualglobalmarketingandfootballtournamentisuponus.Ironicallythistimeit'sthelimitedEuropeanversion.Whocanpredicthowthenationalteam'sperformancewillaffectthevote?Whocanpredicthowthenationalteamwillplay?ForthelastfourteenyearsfootballfanshavebeenreducedtowaitingforEnglandtobeeliminatedatthegroupstagesotheagonycouldendandthetournamentproperbegin.ThistimeallthehomenationsbarScotlandhavequalified,soit'sanevenbiggerMysticMegaffair…

Sowhileyouwatcheveryonefalloutoverthereferendum,theresultsbeingcalledlongbeforethemaineventsarriveandit'sknowntoallandsundrythatwhicheversidetheybelieveisdestinedtowinwillwin…Comfortyourselfwiththethoughtthatadisputedpenaltyoraredcardagainstanyofoursidesortheirs’couldrenderalloftheabovecompletelymeaningless...

N.T.