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The Future Starts Today: General Lessons from Scenario Foresight of the Emerging European Union Homeland Security System and the Comprehensive Approach. BREAKOUT SESSION 15th Annual Emergency Management Higher Education Conference June 4-7, 2012 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Foresight Security ScenariosAlexander SiedschlagAndrea JerkovićCEUSS | Center for European Security Studies, Sigmund Freud University Vienna/Austria
June 7, 2012
The Future Starts Today: General Lessons from Scenario Foresight of the Emerging European Union Homeland Security System and the Comprehensive Approach
BREAKOUT SESSION 15th Annual Emergency Management Higher Education Conference June 4-7, 2012Emergency Management Institute, Emmitsburg, MD
2 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
References
Contributing CEUSS team includes Alexander Siedschlag, Andrea Jerković and Rosemarie Stangl
Presentation draws from results of the following FOCUS documents:
– Deliverable 3.2 Alternative futures of the comprehensive approach– Deliverable 4.1 Problem space report: nature/environment – Deliverable 5.2 Report on interdependencies of critical infrastructures– Summary of FOCUS problem space descriptions
Public versions of these documents are available on the FOCUS website: http://www.focusproject.eu/web/focus/downloads
3 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Objectives
To present, discuss and elaborate on mid-term results of the European Union co-funded research project FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”).
To introduce selected aspects of the European Union’s emerging homeland security system, as among other things addressed by FOCUS.
To address the EU “comprehensive approach” and its future. To place FOCUS results into a comprehensive context of
future roles of higher education research and teaching in homeland security and emergency management.
4 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Overview
EU security research project FOCUS FOCUS’ five big themes (“2035”) FOCUS three levels of analysis & development FOCUS contribution to future higher education programs Emerging European Union homeland security system Example: EC Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Department & MIC Example: European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP) Example: EU concept of the comprehensive approach FOCUS results on comprehensive approach (CA) Alternative futures of & needs for CA-related research and higher education Indicative scenario space for future EU security research Further challenges for higher education programs
5 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Topic won by FOCUS
Topic SEC-2010.6.3-2 Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles
Description of the topic:New tasks are expected to strengthen the EU's role towards providing a comprehensive security approach to its citizens. The external dimension of security may become every more important. The security impact of global climate change needs to be addressed. Furthermore, a stronger common approach to civil protection and crisis management is needed. The task is to develop scenarios as how security research under FP7 and beyond can best contribute to this comprehensive approach while giving due consideration to the ethical and societal dimension.
Expected impact: Provide input for the planning of security research to meet future EU roles beyond those defined in the ESRAB report.
6 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
EU security research project FOCUS
FOCUS: “Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”
FOCUS has the mission to propose future tracks of civil security research and emergency management research in order to support a comprehensive approach to future European homeland security, including exchange and cooperation with international key players
The main idea of FOCUS is to perform inclusive foresight, resulting in multiple scenarios (in a 2035 time frame) for
– Challenges whose causes are external to the territory of the Union, but whose consequences will be experienced on the territory of the Union
– EU responses using tangible contributions from security research IT-supported foresight in the form of alternative futures Use of FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform in teaching
7 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Main contribution
To identify and assess alternative future tracks for security research in a 2035 time frame that will support the EU to adopt new roles in dealing with external threats, risks, and vulnerabilities.
To develop and effective long-term prediction and assessment tool at EU level (IT-based Knowledge Platform).
To populate that IT-based Knowledge Platform with analyses done in the project.
To explore the usability of the IT-based Knowledge Platform beyond the project.
8 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
FOCUS IT-based knowledge platform (example)
9 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Main FOCUS output beyond the IT-based product
Studies and scenario syllabi, and cross-cutting reference scenarios. Option roadmap for new tracks of security research to support EU roles in
response to exogenous threats, risks and vulnerabilities (including prioritised lists of themes), be based on a so-called matrix of context options, assessing scenarios for security research against the background of scenarios for EU roles.
Context development roadmap: Description of several paths of how the context for European security research as well as for exogenous EU roles can develop in the future, based on assessment of alternatives.
European Security Research Glossary (ESG) with definition of tracks, terms and concepts, including broadened concepts of security research.
Qualification profile for future security research experts. Related education scheme (in the form of modules for a curriculum).
10 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
FOCUS foresight
“Scenario foresight”: Foresight presented in the form of scenarios.
“Embedded scenario” approach: Alternative futures of security research in the context of future EU roles.
11 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Inclusive nature of theFOCUS approach to foresight
Bringing new actors into the strategic debate: FOCUS will use foresight as an instrument to broaden the range of actors engaged in EU security policies, planning of security research, and related stakeholder, expert and public discussions.
FOCUS will conduct foresight on an inclusive basis, trying to integrate multiple stakeholders, experts from a broad range of fields and interested public in variably mixed Future Groups, composed so to address security in relation to other societal as well as to ethical values. In order to better understanding the external dimension, these groups will also encompass non-European participants.
Future Groups will also convene online/supported by the IT Platform. FOCUS will seek stakeholder involvement in four dimensions:
“spread”, “choice”, “exchange” and “implementation”.
12 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Exchange: Work with FOCUS
Get involved in FOCUS multidirectional flow of information and make a difference about FOCUS foresight outcomes:
Online and offline expert consulations
Expert questionnaires
Future Groups and scenario foresight workshops
Online deliberation about the five Big Themes
More, depending on your interests and level of ambition End-user Test
and Evaluation Panel
Conferences and thematic workshops
Voice of the citizens in new social media representations of FOCUS
13 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios13
FOCUS project structure
14 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
FOCUS’ five big themes (“2035”)
Different tracks regarding the future of the comprehensive approach as followed by European institutions, Member States, and international strategic actors – including links between the internal and external dimension of security.
Natural disasters and environment-related hazards, with an emphasis on comprehensive risk reduction, civil protection, and reconstruction.
Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection, centred on preventing, mitigating, and responding to exogenous threats that could have a significant impact on EU citizens.
The EU as a global actor, building on EU-level and Member States instruments and capability processes as well as on effective multilateralism.
The evolution of the EU’s internal framework and prerequisites for delivering a comprehensive approach, including strategies for engagement with other international actors, ethical acceptability, and public acceptance of future security roles of our Union.
15 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
FOCUS three levels of analysis & development
Level 1: Problem space descriptions – Ready and online per big theme– Summary available, also as foresight guide– Initial working version of IT-based Knowledge Platform
Level 2: Context scenarios– Future EU roles and capability/knowledge challenges – Further elaboration of IT-based Knowledge Platform
Level 3: Alternative futures for security research that support those roles
– Completion of IT-based Knowledge Platform
16 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
FOCUS cross-scenario drivers from level-1 and early level-2 work Globalization and international system change Changing modes of governance Changing values and norms Economic and social change Technological change Extent of common threat assessment Consistency and coherence of future research
17 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
FOCUS contribution to future higher education programs
Curriculum development scheme as an implementation aspect of the FOCUS roadmap proposal for future security research.
Syllabus of FOCUS modules for implementation in curricula of the projects’ partner universities.
18 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Emerging European Union homeland security system
The European Union has now the legal power to “encourage cooperation between Member States in order to improve the effectiveness of systems for preventing and protecting against natural or man-made disasters.“ (Article 196 Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union – Lisbon 2009 version)
This includes preparing civil-protection personnel, promoting effective operational cooperation between national civil protection services, and promoting “consistency in international civil-protection work.”
The European Union’s initiative for a designation process of “European Critical Infrastructure” (ECI) as well as its initiative for an integrated risk assessment method adds to the challenges for future graduate studies and academic training.
19 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
EC DG ECHO: Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC)
• Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department of the European Commission (ECHO, i.e. [former] European Community Humanitarian Aid Office)
• MIC works in close cooperation with national crisis centers throughout the 32 countries participating in the Mechanism (EU 27, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway).
• The MIC handles over 20 emergencies a year. In addition, it monitors many more emergencies.
• During emergencies the MIC plays three important roles: Communications hub, information provision, coordination
20 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP)
The Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures (ECI) and the assessment of the need to improve their protection (EU, 2008) provides the following definitions:“(a) ‘critical infrastructure’ means an asset, system or part thereof located in Member States which is essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact in a Member State as a result of the failure to maintain those functions;(b) ‘European critical infrastructure’ or ‘ECI’ means critical infrastructure located in Member States the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact on at least two Member States. The significance of the impact shall be assessed in terms of cross-cutting criteria. This includes effects resulting from cross-sector dependencies on other types of infrastructure […].”
21 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
EU concept of the comprehensive approach
Nato EU Crisis Management
Operational Theoretical
Origin
Concepts
Coordination of Harmonized Deployment of
Prepared-ness
ResponseRecovery
Mitigation
Actors & Strategies
ResourcesCapabilitiesCapacities
EU Security Research
The Comprehensive Approach While the EU has only started to move from a consensual top risk approach to an all-hazards approach, it has always advocated the comprehensive approach.
The comprehensive approach aims at overarching solutions to problems, with broad effects based on complementarity of actors, while considering all available options and capabilities, as well as the normative end-state of the security of society as a whole, based on a whole of community approach.
The EU, like NATO et al., at first referred to “comprehensive approach” as a concept pertaining to international crisis management (harmonized deployment of resources, capabilities, and capacities throughout the crisis management cycle). Later, it applied the term also to the field of civil security and civil security research.
22 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Conceptual aspects
The comprehensive approach reflects the cross-border and cross-sector nature of security threats and challenges as well as the complexity of instruments and objectives in security policy.
The comprehensive approach addresses the internal-external continuum.
Nowadays it focuses on the holistic nature and broad trade-offs in increasing the security of the EU and its citizenry as a whole.
The comprehensive approach still lacks an overarching definition, but there is at least broad agreement that in its external dimension, it implies integrating the political, security, development, rule of law, human rights and humanitarian dimensions of the EU’s international missions and operations.
However, the concept is not limited to the external dimension.
23 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Other approaches
An integrated approach focuses on cross-sector solutions based on platforms, such as providing security of both persons and goods in public transport by unified models, strategies, and technologies; or such as comprising different sectors of the strategic management cycle. In practice, there are various concepts of “integrated approach” that differ in their focus on managing different threats. There are integrated approaches to economic threats, to natural disasters, etc.
A holistic approach builds on multifunction, such as linking security and environmental protection, security and (resource) efficiency, etc. in one single package of measures and solutions.
An all-hazards approach centres on cross-sector, cross-risk analyses, and measures.
24 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Conceptual evolution
The comprehensive approach was originally used by NATO (cf. RAND study 1992), both as an operational approach and a strategic concept. It involved the coordination of different actors and strategies, with all trying to achieve political objectives in an increasingly complex environment. The concept has since undergone a significant expansion of scope.
The EU first referred to the “comprehensive approach” as a concept for international crisis management (harmonized deployment of resources, capabilities and capacities throughout all the crisis management cycle phases from primary prevention to reconstruction).
Later, the EU started to apply the term also to the field of civil security and civil security research, including the description of methodological requirements for civil security research projects to meet.
Based on analysis of (approx. 50) pertinent forward-looking definitions, FOCUS identified a set of possible future definitional components.
25 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Core ingredients of conceptual definitions of “comprehensive approach” in forward-looking policy, strategy, and security research documents
Coordination between autonomous actors ; 11,9%
Division of labour between all actors involved; 10,5%
International combination of capabilities/pooling ; 10,5%
Integrated assessment and decision making (systemic
approach); 9,8%
Intervention-based approach (top-down/transfer of solutions, as opposed to bottom-up); 9,1%Developement of capabilities,
including cross-cutting capabilties; 7,7%
All-societal outreach and transfer of knowledge; 6,3%
Civil-military cooperation/coordination/interaction
; 5,6%
Acceptance/ acceptability (ethical aspects); 5,6%
Information sharing; 4,9%
Effects-based approach to operations ; 4,9%
Resilience/ownership; 4,2%
Review of systems (overarching state-of analysis of currently used
systems); 3,5%
Common operational picture ; 2,1%
Internal-external threat/security continuum; 2,1%
Knowledge/anticipation/foresight; 1,4%
26 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Top-5 and bottom-5 conceptual elements of “comprehensive approach” in forward-looking policy, strategy, and security research documents
Top 5 Bottom 5
Coordination between autonomous actors 11.9% Resilience/ownership 4.2%
Division of labour between all actors involved 10.5%
Review of systems (overarching state-of analysis of currently used systems)
3.5%
International combination of capabilities/pooling 10.5% Common operational picture 2.1%
Integrated assessment/ decision making(systemic approach)
9.8%Internal-external threat/security continuum 2.1%
Intervention-based approach (top-down/transfer of solutions, as opposed to bottom-up)
9.1%Knowledge/anticipation/foresight 1.4%
27 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Sceanrio space for alternative futures of CA-related research and higher education
28 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Key drivers for alternative futures of the “comprehensive approach”
Political and/or religious radicalism Organized crime, including piracy, illegal finance transactions, and trafficking of drugs, arms, and humans Demographics, with resulting global migration and increasing conflict over natural resources Severe political crisis and (civil) war in EU neighbouring or in close countries Growing interconnectedness of the internal and the external dimensions of security Failed states Illegal immigration Infectious diseases and health crises Disasters, either of human or natural origin, including industrial accidents Natural resources and energy transition Aggression against national territory or violation of sovereignty territories Proliferation of weapon of mass destruction (WMD) Terrorism as a strategy of action and political influence Cyberattacks and attacks against telecommunication and information systems Economic instability, with resulting reduced resources to address external security threats Climate change and environmental changes/hazards Interruption of essential resource supplies, mainly in the energy sector Increasing reliance/dependency on information and communication technologies, with increasing vulnerability Abuse or inadequate use of emerging technologies and new scientific knowledge
29 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Foreseen core of concept of the EU comprehensive approach
A comprehensive approach addresses the range of threats by the full menu of instruments in order to realize overarching security.
A comprehensive approach aims to find and implement overarching solutions to problems, with broad effects and based on complementarity of actors, while considering all available options and capabilities, as well as the normative end-state of the security of society as a whole.
A comprehensive approach also entails the tackling of cross-cutting issues in home affairs.
30 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Foreseen research and teaching needs in the context of the CA
Balanced, flexible, and effective civilian and military capabilities for domestic ( solidarity clause) and external use;
Comparative assessment of national policies in crisis management; Cybercrime as a global phenomenon causing significant damage to the EU
internal market; New technologies for collecting and integrating data from various different
sources; Intelligent, knowledge based focusing and filtering functions for new social media
and other open information source monitoring; Training schemes for technology use including new social network technologies; Advancement and integration of approaches to foresight, with special
consideration of the following: use driven shifts, user experience as a dominant influence in the technology trend, identification, and analysis of disruptors from normative end states.
31 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Indicative scenario space for future EU security research (draft)
Academic discipline, including reflection on politics of fear, securitisation, cultural selection of risks, etc. Planning tool
for civil security
Driver of technological/economic development
?
RTD for Common European Capabilities
Knowledge foundations for new policy initiatives for coherence
Knowledge foundations for an integrated approach (citizen resilience, societal acceptance, ethical acceptability, etc.)
Challenges for research that derive from the Stockholm Programme (European Council had already encouraged “greater cooperation between JLS and ESDP“ to further shared objectives
32 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Thematic challenges associated with emergency management higher education programs
Comparative studies of the governance of homeland security and emergency management, including analyzing citizens’ needs
Social science/humanities aspects in designation of critical infrastructure (e.g., securitization and cultural selection of risks)
Vulnerability studies and supply chain/essential services management Civil-military “dual use” systems (e.g., in the surveillance sector) Monitoring of new social media and other open information sources Implementation perspective, with indicators for effectiveness of a comprehensive
approach Multi-disciplinary scenarios of maximum credible natural events Ethics aspects, such as unintended reproduction of inequality or creation of uneven
distribution of security in society Training schemes for use of relevant technology Training schemes for use of new social network technologies, to coordinate response
and for empowerment of victims, and of first responders including volunteers
Dis
cipl
ine-
rela
ted
Tran
sver
sal
Ski
lls
33 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Further challenges associated with emergency management higher education programs Enhanced accessibility and more comprehensive analysis/
use of previous studies and their results Vulnerability studies
– Security scrutiny of the results and possible revealing of security gaps – Resulting restriction of dissemination – Resulting classification and non-accessibility of content vs. transparency and
possibility of independent verification of the results as cornerstones of quality management as well as integrity of research and teaching
How can the coherence of security with societal preferences be achieved?
– Major consideration of non technological issues, such as trust and resilience– Resilience implies the recognition of the fact that we cannot prevent all
incidents and that we must also builds societies and infrastructures that can cope, also in order to prevent largely uneven distribution of security in society
34 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Contact
Sigmund Freud Private University Vienna Institute for Security Research CEUSS | Center for European Security Studies
FOCUS Coordinator &FOCUS Foresight Coordination Cell (FoCC)
http://www.european-security.infohttp://www.focusproject.eu
[email protected]@european-security.info
35 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
http://www.focusproject.eu
FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, theme "security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles“, Grant Agreement no. 261633.