Breakdown Capitalism

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The Breakdown of GlobalCapitalism: 2000-2030

Preparing or the beginning o the collapseo industrial civilisation

Ramn Fernndez Durn

RamnFeRnndezduRn

TheBreak

downofGlobalCapitalism:2000-2030

ISBN:978-84-939415-4-3

Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO)is a research and campaign group exposingand challenging the privileged access andinuence by corporations and their lobbygroups in EU policy making. This corporatecapture o the EU leads to policies thatexacerbate social injustice and accelerateenvironmental destruction across the world.CEO works in close alliance with publicinterest groups and social movements todevelop alternatives to the dominance ocorporate power.

www.corporateeurope.org

The Transnational Institute (TNI)was established in 1974 as an internationalnetwork o activist scholars committed tocarrying out critical analyses o the globalproblems o today and tomorrow. It buildsalliances with grassroots social movements,and develops proposals or a moredemocratic, sustainable and just world.

www.tni.org

Ecologistas en Accin is one o thelargest environmental and social grassrootsorganisations in Spain and orms part o verydiverse platorms and international globaljustice networks. It locates itsel in the socialecology arena, analysing environmentalproblems against the background o a critiqueo globalised production and consumption.The urban-agrarian-industrial model needsto be changed and transormed in orderto end the current ecological crisis andsocial injustices. To contribute to suchtransormation, Ecologistas en Accinproposes concrete and viable alternativeswhere the redistribution o wealth and aocus on equity are central.

www.ecologistasenaccion.org

Ramn Fernndez Durn(1945-2011),ounding member o Ecologistas en Accin, isan indisputable reerence or grassroots socialmovements. He has contributed signifcantly tocritical thinking and social mobilisation with hismany books. Some examples are - The Explosionof Disorder(1992) on globalisation;Against theEurope of Capital(1995) on the neoliberal policieso the European Union; Global Financial Capitalismand Permanent War(2003) on the fnancialisationo the economy; Tsunami of Urbanisation (2006)on geopolitical and socio-economic changes, thehousing bubble and fnancial crisis and The Twilightof the Tragic Era of Oil(2008) on the role o ossiluels in capitalism.

Ramn is also a reerence or the articulationo powerul collective responses. Again, hehas contributed signifcantly in this arena orexample, the anti-NATO mobilisations, the globaljustice movement and the ormation o Ecologistasen Accin. But, above all, Ramn is a reerence orour humanity an example o how to be and actin the world.

The beginning of the end of fossil fuels:

a total historical rupture

This book may be critiqued as being pessimistic.But in reality it is attempting to prepare us or verygreat change nothing less than the total collapseo industrial civilisation. Ramn Fernndez Du-rn sees this collapse emerging rom the currentglobal crisis which is characterized by systemicchaos, ecological disaster and resource wars. Heviews the beginning o the end o ossil energy asthe core element o this crisis which will bring a his-toric rupture. Indeed, The Breakdown of GlobalCapitalism: 20002030 describes the frst phaseo a long decline o industrial civilisation that maylast or two to three centuries.

This book is part o a much larger volume thatRamn Fernndez Durn worked on or the lasttwo years o his lie. It contains the core thesis othat unfnished, more complex work, reerred to

by him as the book o my lie. The current textculminates his rich political and ideological legacyand is also his last arewell.

Despite his engagement with the harsh realitieso the crisis, and journeying through some verycomplex terrain, Ramn Fernndez Durn assertsthe hope that human beings will one day declarepeace with the planet and with humankind.


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The Breakdown o GlobalCapitalism: 2000-2030

Multidimensional crisis, systemic chaos, ecologicalruin and a war or resources

Preparing or the beginning o the collapse oindustrial civilisation

THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF FOSSIL FUEL:

A TOTAL HISTORICAL RUPTURE


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ibrosen accion

Title: The Breakdown of Global Capitalism: 2000-2030Preparing or the beginning o the collapse o industrial civilisation

Author: Ramn Fernndez Durn

Original concept, layout and publication: Ecologistas en Accin

Illustrations: Isabel Vzquez

Cover image: A sherman scrapes his hands across the top o a barrel whilecleaning part o an oil spill site in Dalian, China on July 23, 2010.(REUTERS/Jiang He/Greenpeace)

English Edition prepared by:- Ecologistas en Accion (Libros en Accin),- Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO),- Transnational Institute (TNI)

Translation rom Spanish by Rebecca Farro Howard

Edited by Eleanor Ashe Ramn Fernndez Durn

First English edition: May 2012

Printed on 100% recycled, ecological paper ree o bleach.

ISBN: 978-84-939415-4-3Depsito Legal: M-14482-2012

This book is licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0) SpainCreative Commons. For a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/

Ramn Fernndez Durn(Ecologistas en Accin)

The Breakdown o GlobalCapitalism: 2000-2030

Multidimensional crisis, systemic chaos, ecologicalruin and a war or resources

Preparing or the beginning o the collapse oindustrial civilisation

THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF FOSSIL FUEL:

A TOTAL HISTORICAL RUPTURE

Editors:


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To Ana,my love and comrade, who has supported and accompa-

nied me throughout all these years, particularly during thelast times. Without her invaluable riendship and love I

would not have been able to ace this last phase o my liein the way I am doing it. Besides, she has been a constant

source o learning on eminist issues, and I have alwaysbeen delighted with the way in which we shared our

refections, dreams and visions o lie, as well as our sharedsocio-political commitment.

A big kiss or you, my beauty.You deserve the best!


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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Kolya Abramsky, Luis Gonzlez, Ivn Murray, JaimePastor, Pedro Sol, Tom Kucharz, Fernando Cembranos, Manolo Gonzlez,Fernando Prats, Yayo Herrero, Dough Tompkins and Ana Hernando ortheir comments on this introduction to the book, as well as contributionsrom companions and people close to La Maloca (Josi, Goyo, Alejo, Luz,Chus, Agus, Elena, Charly, Isabela, Marta, Cristina, Sandro, Isidro, Emma,Silvina, Dani, ngel, Cristina, Chusa, Flori, Pepe and Ana), who helpedme with their refections as well as their laughter during the summergatherings in the magical nights on the oothills o Montgo. At the sametime I would like to thank Chusa Lamarca or the nal edit o the text,and Isabel Vazquez or her illustrations. I would also like to thank theDeep Ecology and the Transnational Institute or their support and orEcologistas en Accin that will coordinate the editing o this initial workas a book as well as Virus editorial and Baladre, who are coediting.

This is a more complete, polished and updated text compared to one withthe same title that was posted on dierent websites in 2010. This new

version is available in an electronic ormat onwww.ecologistasenaccion.org/IMG/pd/el_inicio_del_fn_de_la_energia_osil.pd

Moreover, this work is an Introduction to a much longer book that willtake longer to see the light, due to the health problems o the author,but it synthesises its undamental thesis. The nal book will surely bedeveloped by Luis Gonzlez, a companion rom Ecologistas en Accinand a great riend, who will also give his own valuable seal. I am deeplygrateul or his invaluable help.


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In the markets we see groups behaving like wol packs.I we let them, they will attack and destroy the weakest members.

Anders Borg,Swedish Finance Minister,in the ace o a speculative attack on Greece (May 2010)

This time, the crumbling empire is the unassailable global economy,and the brave new world o consumer democracy being orged world-

wide in its name. Upon the indestructibility o this edice we havepinned the hopes o this latest phase o our civilization. (...)All around

us, shits are under way which suggest that our whole way o living

is already passing into history () Ecological and economic collapseunolds beore us and, i we acknowledge them at all, we act as i thiswere a temporary problem, a technical glitch (...) For all our doubts and

discontents, we are still wired to an idea o history in which the uturewill be an upgraded version o the present

Uncivilization: The Dark Mountain Maniesto

The soviet system stopped working or reasons similar to those whichmade the western model o the social State non operative, and more

importantly, it happened more or less at the same time () We areall being dragged by the sinking o a ship (Modernity) whose hull hasalready broken. One o its parts sank rst and very quickly, while the

other is resisting a little bit longer. That is all.

We are the Same: The crisis o Modernity as a common problem.A.G. Glinchikova

Who would have thought that rom the summit o Mount Palatinethe Roman Empire was not eternal.

The Big Crunch. Pierre Thuillier

One day industrialisation will have to conrontthe depletion o resources and its own waste.

Las Ilusiones Renovables. Los Amigos de Ludd


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The Breakdownof GloBal CapiTalism: 2000-2030

Contents

Foreword to English Edition, 15

I. The beginning o the end o ossil uel:a total historical rupture, 17

Introduction, 19

An exercise in political ction with a strong dose o reality, 22

The current crisis in global capitalism began around 2000, 25

Peak Oil and the consequences o the new era o decliningenergy, 28

Physical inability to close the jaws o the crocodile - energysupply and demand, 33

Technological impossibility o broadening the ecologicalplanetary rontiers, 36

Energy crisis, climate change and ecological collapse a deadlytriangle, 38

Breakdown o social reproduction and the crisis o care thegreat orgotten, 41

Between two slogans: Save the Planet o the new GreenCapitalism and Business as Usual, 43

Systemic crisis, war or resources and a major demographicshit, 48

We are heading towards a new era characterized by resources exhaus-tion (particularly oil and gas), the continuous decrease o the available

net energy and the disappearance o the space or waste disposal availa-ble in Nature without unacceptable consequences or human societies.We are already entering a century which will be dened by ecological

limits, and by our response to those limits. The temptation will be toapply to the crisis that we will ace in this century the same attitudes

and behaviour that were both justiable and protable during the pastcentury. I that would be the case the result will be a monumental his-toric catastrophe. In no other areas will that be so obviously true as in

our relation to coal (the last ossil uel still abundant).To put it simply,i we burn it, we will cook planet Earth and ourselves, at the same timethat we will lose the economic benets we pursue. We have only a tinywindow o opportunity to walk towards a uture desirable or our spe-cies by reducing ossil uels consumption and moving towards a regime

o renewable energy and a model o just and sustainable economy.The nal countdown has already started.

Blackout: Coal, climate and the last energy crisis. Richard Heinberg

The basis or the creation o sustainable human development mustarise rom within the system dominated by capital, without being part

o it, just as the bourgeoisie itsel arose in the pores o eudal society.

What every environmentalist needs to know about capitalism.Fred Magdo and John Bellamy Foster

One o my main conclusions is that our species is simply not su-

ciently wise (or I preer the term sapient to dierentiate between anative capacity and an actualized capability) to deal with the world

we have created () and I doubt it can avoid its collapse in the XXIcentury () as it must ace the ecological crisis.

Bottleneck: Humanity Impending Impasse. William Catton

The rst thing you have to do to get out o a hole is to stop digging.

Chinese proverb


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Thirty lost years and a Full World, with reduced options orpossible utures, 50

Financialcorporate collapse, rupture o globalisation, andgeopolitical breakdown, 54

Towards new regional state capitalisms, ghting amongthemselves? , 59

New geopolitical order, war or resources, systemic chaos andthe breakdown o states, 64

Beginning o the long decline o industrial civilisation dangers

and potentials, 69The gods o modernity in crisis, but not yet terminal, 74

The new myths o post-modernity, supported by the Society oImage, 76

Will the global village and cyberspace survive the breakdown oglobal capitalism?, 79

The end o the expansion o the I in new multicultural masssocieties, 83

2010-2030: From the generation o 68 to the most preparedgeneration in history, 85

Walking towards 2030 without a road map, but looking throughthe rear-view mirror, 89

Catastrophe, crisis o the dominant discourse and an opportunity

or transormation, 92An urgent need to change and broaden our socio-political

intervention strategies, 97

A confictive and complex relationship with the State and theMetropolis, 103

War and patriarchy - problems that must be resolved to allow usto live as human beings , 107

Bibliography, 111

Appendix, 117

Foreword to English Edition

Ramn Fernndez Durn, a Spanish activist and writer, who died inMay 2011 was a co-ounder o Ecologistas en Accin, and has alwaysbeen very close to Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO) and theTransnational Institute (TNI). He was a board member o CEO, andan associate ellow o the TNI, and a permanent source o inspiration.

We rst met in Madrid at the 1994 Alternative Forum 50 Years isEnough The Other Voices o the Planet (a mobilisation against the

World Bank and IMF) and again in December 1995 at the CounterSummit during the EU Summit. Both events were important seedsor the global justice movement and or the creation o a Europeannetwork challenging corporate Europe. From that point we remainedclosely connected through our work.

Ramns lucid analysis, refected in numerous books and articles,

has had an important infuence on our thinking and the memory o hiscommitted political activism will stay with us to inspire and challengeus.

Ramn combined his great intellectual capacity and deep politicalcommitment with an even greater kindness, warmth, humour andradical coherence in the way he lived (and died). It is also typical thathis last work is a book looking towards the uture o our societies ando our planet.

This book is his political testament, an introduction to a moreambitious book which he had worked on or several years. In thisbook, Ramn wanted to prepare us to ace the breakdown o global


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ramn fernndez durn The Breakdownof GloBal CapiTalism: 2000-2030

I. THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF FOSSIL FUEL:A TOTAL HISTORICAL RUPTURE

capitalism, and the collapse o industrial civilisation. The global crisiswe are living through and which has at its heart and apex the peak inossil uel supplies, will lead to a deep historic rupture.

Ramn was brilliant in explaining the role o the nancialisedeconomy in the current system, and a pioneer in unmasking theneoliberal project behind the European Union. In this book he goesbeyond exposing the faws o the system. The deep crisis which beganunolding in several layers gave him the urgency to try to anticipatehow it would evolve. Without evading any dicult conrontation,he has attempted to better prepare the global justice movement or

what is yet to come. TNI and CEO do not necessarily endorse all thecontents o the book, but we deeply believe that helping Ramns

words reach urther is worth every eort.Knowing his end was coming soon he wrote I am a little sad to

leave in these times when history seems to accelerate, determined by theenergy, environmental and climate change crisis that threatens the planetand human societies.Almost a year since Ramn let us, the crisishas indeed exploded and we are acing every day new challengesand uncertainties. In this situation we sorely miss Ramn and otenwonder what his refections and actions would be. It is in this spiritthereore, that we want to share with a wider public his valuablelast work.

Corporate Europe Observatory

Transnational InstituteMay 2012


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Introduction

The World o 2007is over, never to return. This world slipped awaywithout our realising it, leaving us at a point o historical infection, aork in the road, a new world order that we are not yet aware o, orat best are only minimally aware o. Proound economic, geopoliticaland cultural mutations are currently taking place, subterranean inmany instances, hidden or now, especially rom the vast populationso people who have been conditioned by the insidious messagestransmitted to them by a powerul and sel-interested elite.

O course rumbles o these mutations are already emerging withunusual orce in some societies. An example o such is the suddeneruption o revolution and rebellion throughout the Arab world, aspace o immense strategic importance and o deeply entrenched andlong-maintained stasis. The proound crises that have resulted in the

disruption o governance in a number o Arab states have already ledto unoreseen consequences. However, the immense changes that arecurrently being orged are observable only to a minority, and will nallyerupt only when the orces propelling them will be acknowledged byall. These orces are powerul and overwhelming indeed, emergingas they do rom a progressive depletion o our natural resources,particularly ossil uels, and a limit to the seemingly endless ecologicalrichness currently available to global capitalism.

Limits both in inputs (the depletion o resources) and in outputs(the saturation and disturbance o planetary sinkholes) are leading toan unprecedented ecological catastrophe in the history o humankind.


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This is urther exacerbated by a series o internal economic and socio-political imbalances that are generated by the deployment and the crisiso the orces o capital at a global level. However, our belie is that it

will be the ecological limits, the depletion o resources, ossil uels inparticular, which will put an end to the unbridled race, rather thanthe internal contradictions induced by the current model. Meanwhile,global capitalism has been developing a world social structure that istruly inhuman and that bears no relationship to the desires and aspi-rations o the majority o peoples. An example is the savage divisionbetween centres and peripheries, between owners and non-owners,

and in particular between stock-holders, salaried workers, independentworkers and those who are totally excluded.

During the exceptional period between the collapse o what is otenreerred to as the Eastern Empire o Real Socialism (19891991) and thecrisis o Wall Street (20072008), it would appear that the WesternEmpire denitively consolidated and broadened its reach on a worldscale, inaugurating a type o vacation rom history. A more agile,high-tech, industrial system, one that was fexible, consumer-based,democratic and glamorous, managed to impose itsel and gobbleup another that was clumsier, bureaucratised, with limited goods andservices, heavily repressive and above all grey. Fukuyama (1992) calledit The End o History, to characterise the planetary triumph o globalcapitalism with a liberal-western bias.

However, all o this was in act only a temporary mirage ostered ormore than 20 years by cheap very cheap energy, a period marked

by the lowest energy costs in history, as a result o the spectacular allin oil prices during the mid-1980s and the 1990s (Fernndez Durn,2008; Greer, 2009). Low energy costs also led to the key additiono Communist China in the new global capitalism, strengthening itsglobalisation power. Moreover, without the incorporation o the new

world abric (and all the peripheries o the global south) with its im-mense, cheap and hugely exploited labour orce, along with its abun-dant resources, this type o capitalism would not have been easible.Additionally, it would not have emerged without the phenomenono substantial, cheap, immigrant labour that moved to central nationsrom the periphery, and to other emerging centres in the global south.

All o this inevitably resulted in the destruction o the labour orce inthe central space, along with the conquest o the soul, ostered by theSociety o Consumption and the Global Village.

However, the nancial crisis, with its epicentre in Wall Street,demonstrated that the transition just described was only a passingphenomenon, even i its impact was extremely powerul. In this sense

we could say that the Wall Street crisis is or Global Capitalism whatthe all o the Berlin Wall was or Real Socialism. That was the sparkthat activated a multi-dimensional and growing global crisis and acorporate collapse that had been incubating or a number o years,

certainly since the beginning o the new millennium. In any case, thebreakdown o global capitalism, and the resulting collapse o industrialcivilisation, will not be a swit Hollywood-style process, but will haveits own dynamic, with signicant breakdowns that have already begunand are now unstoppable (Greer, 2008).


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An exercise in political ctionwith a strong dose o reality

The main objective o this text is to examine the ongoing process othe collapse o global capitalism and to imagine ways in which wecan infuence the eventual outcome. In short, this is an exercise inpolitical ction, but based on very real oundations and with a mo-bilising and transorming impetus. We are conscious that the worldaces a devastating outlook or the next two decades (2010-2030),

with all the odds stacked against humanity. In act, we believe thatthe devastation may become deeper and harsher as urther decadespass, lasting well beyond this century. We wish, thereore, to stimulatea collective refection on this period, a period that is awesome in itscollapse, paralysing the responses o many, and setting in train a longdecline in industrial civilisation. A tidal wave awaits us, and we must

meet it with a prepared and co-ordinated response.Readers may well ask two questions at this juncture. The rst, Whythese particular dates (2010-2030)? The main horizon that has beenindicated, 2030, is because o the act that around that time there willbe very substantial, decisive changes in relation to the supply o ossiluel. The availability o coal will enter a crisis stage at that point. This crisis

will be added to a decline in the overall fow o ossil energy that has inact already begun. We have now entered into a Peak Oil phase, and it isexpected that we will enter into a Peak Gas stage in the early 2020s. Theoundations on which global capitalism has become an overwhelmingorce will thereore be really undermined around the 2030s.

O course it is possible that global capitalism will explode in thecoming years into a series o new authoritarian and confictual regio-nal capitalisms, reducing its current world dimension to a residuallevel. And, while the impact o the peaks in world oil and gas will beormidable, there could be an eort to partially reduce it by turningmassively to coal (something that is already taking place) and to otherenergy sources (nuclear and renewables). However, global capitalismcurrently has no alternative plan B to ossil uel that is either easibleor available and thereore is absolutely dependent on ossil uel. Forthis reason, by 2025 or 2030 at the latest, and perhaps prior to this

(2020), the decline o available, exploitable and usable coal will beadded to the decline in oil and gas, activating the progressive collapseo industrial societies, since these will no longer have the sap thatmakes them viable (Heinberg, 2009; Zittel and Schindler 2007; Prieto,2010).

Other resources are also impinging on the coming crisis. First isthe issue o resh water, Blue Gold as it is called, a vital resource, theincreasing scarcity o which is already maniest in broad swathes othe globe (including the Arab world), and its control and access willlikely generate signicant conficts in the uture. Second is the issueo environmental systems. Up to now, these systems have been usedin a predatory and gratuitous orm that has included a high level ocontamination (including genetically modied) and the dumping oevery type o waste. The generous biosphere that has been availableto be enguled by the urban-agri-industrial metabolism, or to be used as

a garbage dump, is now rapidly closing-up (Fernndez Durn, 2011).The possible dates we have indicated are thereore not unreasona-

ble, although o course they may experience plausible variations, giventhat in any human especially geopolitical processes it is dicult tospeciy exactly how they will evolve. This is particularly so when weare talking about complex systems that could vary to a very signicantdegree, particularly at breaking points. Throughout the text we ocuson these breaking points, and especially on the threats o social confictthat are inevitable in otherwise uncertain outcomes.

The second question rom readers may be as ollows: Is thisexercise in political ction not excessively apocalyptic? We modestly


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believe that this is not the case. The current reality is extremely seriousor millions o people in the world and it will be so or billions in thenext decades, ending up by aecting all o humanity. No one will beimmune rom its impact, although undoubtedly those who initiallysuer the worst consequences will be the weakest social sectors andthe most outlying territories. However, when the breakdown o globalcapitalism deepens and the long decline o industrial civilisation sets in,nobody will be immune rom its eects, not even the elite, althoughthere will be winners and losers, depending on how the processesunold.

Some responses will undoubtedly view our approach as apocalyp-tic, but these will come rom a predominantly elitist and middle-classgrouping that believes these events will not take place and above all

will not aect them. The elite close their eyes to reality and seek shelterin their unshakeable aith in progress and above all in technology, hol-ding that this nal element will always impede the worst. However, webelieve the opposite to be true, that attempts to maintain the currenthyper-technological society at any cost could precipitate an even moreabrupt collapse o industrial society. Thereore, we hold that realitymust be aced head on, without masking it. While we expressly wishto avoid an apocalyptic tone, we eel a strong duty to outline uturescenarios that we and those who ollow us most likely ace.

The current crisis in global capitalismbegan around 2000

The title o this book notes the years 20002030 as the period or thebreakdown o global capitalism, and this is no coincidence. We believethat while the global nancial crisis began in the summer o 2007, anumber o serious structural changes occurred earlier that indicate the

year 2000 as the beginning o the crisis o global capitalism. Severalo these changes come to mind quite readily. Inevitably, the changein the cost o uel is top o the list. In recent years, there has been a

very signicant increase in energy prices, specically in the price o oil.Ater maintaining a stable price structure more or less constantly sincethe mid-1980s, reaching an historic low in 1998, oil prices suddenlyshot up in the early years o the new decade, and the price o crudeoil and o gas has accelerated since then, with only s light fuctuations.

Next, the year 2000 saw the collapse o the dot.com bubble, leavingserious nancial disarray in its wake. And prior to that, in 19971998,a monetarynancial crisis throughout South-East Asia (with the excep-tion o China) had signicant repercussions in the countries peripheralto the new global capitalism (rom Russia to Latin America).

The end o the twentieth century and the early years o the twenty-rst saw the rise o resistance to the current world order, maniestedin a series o socio-political struggles globally. From this resistanceemerged the Anti-Globalisation Movement and the World SocialForums. New and important resistance movements emerged also inLatin America, e.g. Que Se Vayan Todos! in Argentina, the Water War


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and Gas War in Bolivia, and the Aymara rebellion in the highlands.Finally, 9/11 marked an important change in world governance withthe Bush administrations response to the downing o the Twin Towersin the heart o Wall Street by Al Qaeda. From that point onwards theUnited States sought to maintain its world hegemonymanu militari,in Aghanistan and Iraq, attempting to control the worlds supply ooil and gas in the Middle East and Central Asia, and also in the NearEast, via Israel. A urther goal was to support the dollar in the ace oa strengthening euro. This heightening o control began to unold ata time when global capitalism was becoming increasingly multi-polar

and the West was beginning to gradually lose its dominant weight onthe economic and cultural ront though not on the nancial or militaryront.

Ater that, the West, especially the United States, set itsel on acrazed race orward to maintain its global superiority, promoting majorderegulation o nancial markets, reducing taxes on the rich, and lowe-ring interest rates to encourage growth. All o this was combined witha Keynesian-type expansion o credit to stratospheric levels, throughthe nancial world o Wall Street. The result was a series o infationarybubbles (e.g. property, equities, new nancial products), with disas-trous worldwide dimensions. These bubbles began to explode in thesummer o 2007, culminating in the collapse o Lehman Brothers inSeptember 2008. At the same time, the price o oil reached alarminglevels (rom $70 in 2007 to $150 in 2008), reinorced by speculationand eventually becoming one o the leading causes o the bursting o

the nancial bubble.At the same time, global capitalism, renewed and multi-polar, began

to push or a global governance that was increasingly authoritarian,in the heat o the War on Terror. This attempted to legitimise theresponse o the United States and the Western world, but also hada strong component o socio-political repression, adopted by a num-ber o emerging States to drown possible domestic responses. Suchgovernance became a type o planetary State o Exception, implyinga signicant regression regarding political rights and citizens rights.The happy globalisation o the 1990s had come to an abrupt end,and the global crisis that emerged openly in 2007, in all its multi-

dimensionality, sounded the death-knell o the sel-regulating market,harking back to the Great Depression o the 1930s.


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Peak Oil and the consequenceso the new era o declining energy

This section deals with the progressive exhaustion o a hitherto unen-ding fow o ossil uels, oil in particular (see Figure 1), and the seriousconsequences o this or humanity.

Figure 1: ASPO profle o past and uture oil and natural gas extraction

Natural Gas

Conventional Crude Oil

0

5

100

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Non-Con Gas

NGL

Polar

Deepwater

Heavy crude

oil, etc.

Source: Prieto (2010)

Historically, ater every crisis o capitalism, capital itsel becamestrengthened and more concentrated (the Schumpeterian concept ocreative destruction). However, that will not occur this time, even i

it appears to do so or a brie period. This is because declining ossiluel supplies will have dramatic consequences or the dynamics o theaccumulation and the centralisation o capital, in particular nancialcapital. Peak Oil will mark the beginning o the end o the era o ossiluels, and everything indicates we are in act now reaching this pointor are about to reach it (Heinberg, 2006 and 2007; Greer, 2008 and2009; Prieto, 2010).

And so ends the rst phase o the Oil Era, an era that lasted some150 years. During this period, the world population grew six-old andthe urban population multiplied more than 50-old (Fernndez Durn,

2009). This was unparalleled growth in historic terms, a growth thatwould not have been possible without an open tap on Black Gold(see Figure 2).

Figure 2: World population evolution throughout history

10,000 9000 8000 7000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Years beore present

Second Millennium

Population(inmillions)

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Source: Christian (2005)

Moreover, this era witnessed a huge boom in nancial capital,maniested as debt at the heart o a system that was based on thecondence that uture expansion would act as a subsidiary guaranteeo current debt. Undoubtedly the second hal o the twentieth century

was the golden age o the Oil Era, when consumption shot higherand the metropolitisation o the planet exploded. The second phase


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its progressive scarcity, leading eventually to a downward spiral thatis endless (Heinberg, 2006). This will result in the breakdown o thecurrent nancial system, based as it is on a massive expansion o credit.The nancial system will indeed be the rst to break once the energydecline really kicks in, as it will no longer be able to sustain its constantexpansion, and the rapid decline in growth will make it impossible topay the debts that have been contracted (Bermejo, 2008).

Figure 3: Past evolution and possible uture world carbon extraction

1950

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2000

Million toe

2050 2100

Sources: Zittel and Schindler (2007) and Heinberg (2009).

The oil ceiling coincides with that o the other ossil uels, becausethese others cannot compensate or oil. As a result, one might say therecould be three ceilings in one. However, in ormal terms Peak Gas willcome a ew years later (Figure 1), in the middle o this decade (2015),and Peak Carbon in the middle o the ollowing decade (2025) (Figure3) (Heinberg, 2006, 2007 and 2009; Bermejo, 2008). The ending othe era o ossil uels will then be rapidly underway, and will continueor a ew more decades. However, the Oil Era will end much soonerthan the world oil supply dries up, because global capitalism, madepossible by Black Gold, will crumble when its decline begins.

o the Oil Era, now dawning, will witness a decline in the fow o oil,ollowed by a decline in the fow o natural gas, along with a signicantincrease in price. This will have an impact on everything that dependson that uel and will essentially involve the entire industrialised pro-ductive (and services) apparatus, along with transport and territorialdynamics. Clearly, such a proound disruption will have tremendousrepercussions.

This is particularly true since oil provides a very important energysubsidy, bringing down the costs o obtaining other sources o energy(carbon, gas, hydroelectric, other renewables and even nuclear). Mo-

reover, oil is also used to obtain and transport all types o mineralsand materials. This has generated a situation o unprecedented globalabundance. However, with Peak Oil, the era o cheap energy will beover orever, something that will impact on the entire economic systemand above all on the monetarynancial system. The impact will beparticularly harsh in terms o motorised mobility and industrialisedagriculture, the two Achilles heels o the current urban-agri-industrialsystem, especially in its more globalised dimension. Additionally, theso-called law o decreasing yields will become patently clear in thenext ew years.

During the past 30 years cheap energy has made possible newtechnological developments (e.g. Inormation and CommunicationTechnology (ICT). At the same time, these technological developmentsenabled an increase in energy eciency per product unit. However,this energy eciency has been completely overwhelmed by an increa-

se in growth and consumption, causing a spike in every type o energydemand the so-called Jevons Paradox or Jevons Eect. All o thishas allowed or a heavy substitution o human labour by machinery(generalised automation), increasing productivity to a signicant degreeand reducing labour confict at the same time. Moreover, uture capitalhas been imported into the present, through the massive expansion ocredit, which has strengthened growth and consumption at the costo the overwhelming indebtedness o societies.

However, as noted above, the decline in the fow o ossil energy,via Peak Oil and later Peak Gas, will have a signicant impact oneconomic growth, due both to the sudden increase in prices and to


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In the past, when societies experienced energy crises they gene-rally managed to weather them by controlling a greater energy fow.This has been a requent pattern in the wake o signicant crisesand collapses. Such a process, punctuated by signicant breakdownsand regressions, and by historic socio-political complexity, has beenstrongly impelled by ossil uel or more than 300 years. It has beenknown as the Era o Industrial Civilisation. This era has had the daringto challenge the laws and the limits o the biosphere. But it is now onthe point o beginning its decline ater a dazzling and extravagantbelle epoquenale during the past thirty years, having come through

the threatening energy crisis o the 1970s (Fernndez Durn, 2008).However this time it will not be possible to avoid calamity, in itsoverwhelming global dimension, and society will not emerge rom itenjoying a greater energy fow.

Energy decline is thereore unavoidable, as is the breakdown oglobal capitalism and the long decline o industrial civilisation. Withoutbeing ully aware o it, we have already entered on the downwardpath. We await the imposition o the dictatorship o net energy; andthe law o entropy will explode with unusual orce, something we haveso ar managed to ignore. This gloomy scenario is because there isno easible or available energy plan B (hydrogen, usion, etc) that cansustain industrial civilisation. Because o the energy intensity o ossiluel, no other source, or combination o sources, can ll the tremen-dous gap that it will leave in its decline. Furthermore, a number ocentralised or industrialised renewable energy sources that are being

put orward today, e.g. photovoltaic solar and thermo solar, sourcesthat in act produce the lowest net energy when we consider theirentire lie cycle, would not be easible without the energy subsidy theycurrently receive rom cheap oil and abundant state subsidies.

Physical inability to close the jaws o thecrocodile - energy supply and demand

According to orecasts rom the International Energy Agency (IEA),in order to meet world oil requirements in 2030 there is a need tobring additional supply into the market, a supply that would equateto that o six new Saudi Arabias (IEA, 2009) a material impossibilityas indicated in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Foreseeable evolution o world supplyand demand o liquid uels

0

10

2008 20302024202020162012

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

MillionBarrelsperDay

Non-PetroleumUnconventional Liquids

Non-OPEC UnconventionalPetroleum Liquids

OPEC UnconventionalPetroleum Liquids

Non-OPEC UnconventionalPetroleum Projects

Non-OPEC ConventionalProjects

OPEC ConventionalProjects

Non-OPEC Existing Conventional

OPEC Existing Conventional

AEO2009Refe

renceTotalCo

nsumption

43

Projects

Unidentified

Sources: Prieto (2010), IEA (2009)


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The energy orecasts or the evolution o the global urban-agri-industrial system are daunting and the ossil uel supply, oil in parti-cular, is about to begin its decline, without any easible alternativesin operation. The IEA has stated that ways to close these oil jaws

will be ound, through not yet identied extraction projects, butrecognises that as o 2012 the jaws will begin to open or the rsttime (Prieto, 2010). However, a recent report rom the German Army(Bundeswerh), cited byDer Spiegel, places Peak Oil in the year 2010(Schulz, 2010), echoing an ASPO (Association or the Study o Peak

Oil) orecast that had earlier indicated a similar timescale, predictingalso strong negative impacts and resulting socio-economic uprisings.

Oil does not have an easy substitute, as it is our principal ossiluel energy source. Given its high energy density (three times thato carbon), its easy management and transport, the multiplicity oits potential usages (petrochemical industry), and above all becauseo the diculty o substituting or it in motorised mobility (by road,ocean and air), it unctions as the key circulatory system o globalcapitalism. Global capitalism depends on black oil derivatives to meet95 per cent o its requirements (Heinberg, 2006). Likewise, there isan extreme dependence on crude oil in the agribusiness sector andin a highly urban world. However, massive eorts will be made tocover the enormous energy and unctional void that oil will createin its decline. This can only be partly compensated or by turning tonatural gas, liquids rom the treatment o coal (very expensive) or the

more than contested and high-impact agri-uels, which urthermorehave a low energy density. These alternatives would in any case beextremely dicult and expensive to put in place.

For this reason the impact o Peak Oil will be intense in the shortand medium term, as it can only be partially compensated or byturning to other ossil energy sources, such as renewable and evennuclear alternatives. The powering o vehicles by natural gas or byelectricity, or example, calls or the construction o a new electricenergy distribution inrastructure, which in itsel implies a massiveconsumption o ossil uel. Moreover, it is important to underscorethat the partial energy options that are available will be reduced as we

enter the decline o natural gas and later that o carbon, producing anabrupt energy collapse by 20252030 (Heinberg, 2009).


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Technological impossibilityo broadening the ecological

planetary rontiers

Up to now the threat o ossil energy decline has spawned the deve-lopment o a number o complex technological solutions (FernndezDurn, 2011). However, the broadening o the global ecological limitsthat such solutions demand have already been exceeded in terms othe planets bio-capacity and already decisively aect many planetaryenvironmental services. Moreover, i this complex technological pushis attempted in the uture, the global ecological rontiers will becomeeven narrower. The reason is that in the attempt to narrow the limitsthrough technology, increasingly scarce ossil uel sources will bedepleted more rapidly, creating an even more proound breakdownin a short period o time. These eorts thereore are condemned to

ailure.Cheap and abundant ossil uel has impelled technological inven-

tion, the extraction o resources, and an explosion in automation,the production o goods, and consumption - o ood in particular.Technology can do marvellous things and has been doing so or200 years, most notably in the past 30 years. The development andgrowth period o Inormation and Communication Technology (ICT)has made current global capitalism easible and has in act impelledit. However, the rising expense o energy will render impossible manyo the extractive projects that provide material inputs or the currentglobal urban-agri-industrial metabolism and the Inormation Society

itsel. The result will have a negative impact on the viability o complextechnologies, making it increasingly dicult and expensive to tech-nologically address the negative all-out emerging in this metabolism.Furthermore, it must be noted that it is only in central spaces o globalcapitalism that such technologies have actually taken hold, and this atenormous expense.

The increasing expense and scarcity o available energy, aboveall in terms o net energy, will undamentally change the productive,technological, territorial, social, political, cultural and even symboliclandscape. The prosthetic-machine driven culture o recent decades,

a characteristic o our hyper-technological society, will progressivelyenter into crisis and will gradually head to the garbage dump ohistory. In this way, the growing substitution o human and animal

work by machines will grind to a halt. Generalised automation willenter into a proound crisis and there will likely be a slow return tohuman and animal work in productive and reproductive processes.In act reproductive human work, largely carried out by women, hasnever disappeared. This implies a return to a new social confict, as theenergy slaves that we have enjoyed begin to disappear currently,the average citizen in the United States uses 100 such slaves a day.

History in the past two centuries has been marked by the progres-sive substitution o human and animal muscular strength, along withother sources o previously used solar, renewable and non-industriali-sed energy (wood, wind, water currents), by ossil energy, nuclear (in aresidual manner) and other orms o a renewable nature, industrialised

and centralised. From now on we will witness the opposite process,although this will not be abrupt, homogenous or tension-ree. Thetwentieth century has witnessed the greatest and switest productiveand socio-political expansion in history, in terms o scale, reach andcomplexity, but the twenty-rst century will likely see its contractionand simplication, in parallel with the great decline o energy resources(Heinberg 2007 and 2007; Greer, 2008; Sempere and Tello, 2007).


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Energy crisis, climate change andecological collapse a deadly triangle

The massive use o ossil uels has activated two new, signicant di-mensions o the global crisis: climate change and an ecological collapse.The rst issue, climate change, has received much attention in termso debate and discussion, while the second, ecological collapse, has upto now been a great unknown, receiving even less attention than theglobal energy crisis that we ace. This is particularly the case regardingthe destruction o the biosphere, with global capitalism now provokingthe sixth extinction o species in the history o the world (FernndezDurn, 2011). The development o productive orces, sponsored bythe unctioning o capital and made possible by ossil uels, has had aatal downside the development o destructive orces generated bythe urban-agri-industrial metabolism. And these orces have hit the

biosphere with appalling consequences (Valdivielso, 2008).This destruction has become more critical in recent times as higherquality, more accessible ossil uel became exhausted, and there hasbeen a need to exploit new resources o an increasingly lower quality.The problem o accessing these oil sources has become more particu-larly acute and more dicult to reach and place on the market e.g.heavy oil, bituminous sands, crude oil in deep or very deep water,arctic oil or oil in tropical jungles. Increasingly, carbon (coal) is usedto meet accelerating energy demands, especially or electricity, andbecause carbon is the most contaminated o the ossil uels, it is theone that contributes most to the ongoing problem o climate change.

Indeed, the twenty-rst century is becoming the century o carbon, aswas the nineteenth (Figure 5) (Murray, 2009). Besides, in the twen-tieth century, the Era o Oil, carbon did not disappear rom usage.Indeed carbon consumption increased ve-old during this time, eventhough it was not so visible. Today, carbon is responsible or nearlyhal o the worlds electricity generation, reaching 50 per cent levelin the US (Heinberg, 2009). Dirty carbon is the key energy driver oour hyper-technology society, dependent as this is on a vast ocean ocheap electricity or its operation.

Figure 5: Evolution o world energy production/extraction 1860-2009(in million ToE)

Coal

Coal

BiomassBiomass

Oil

Hydroelectricity

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Source: Ivn Murray (2009)

It is obvious then that the energy crisis, climate change and a glo-bal ecological collapse are intimately related and congure a deadlytriangle or the uture o humanity and planet Earth. Interestingly, oneo these vertices is being discussed at length, even i supercially, ina number o corridors o power. The political sphere seems to havetaken on the concept o climate change and its consequences. But ithas totally overlooked the more imminent energy crisis and the eco-


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logical collapse that is already taking on the dimensions o a globalecocide.

This ocus on climate change by elements o the establishmentis ironic, given the act that the energy decline is a more signicantproblem in the short term. Despite the gravity o the problem oclimate change, it has not yet impinged on the central dynamic ocapital growth and concentration, although o course it will do so inthe middle and long term. Likewise the imminence o ecological co-llapse, perhaps the most serious problem or the uture o humanity,is becoming a greater problem or the dynamics o capital growth and

accumulation than ongoing climate change, whose worst consequenceshave been maniested to date in the ecosystems and territories o themost peripheral spaces and on the most impoverished populations.

We will attempt to address the reason or this enormous paradoxlater in the text (Fernndez Durn, 2011b). In the meantime, it isimportant to remember that ecological problems must always becontemplated rom a perspective o political ecology, that is to say,the logic o power. These problems orm part o the operating systemo global capitalism, and its power structures (political, business, andmilitary) are prepared to reveal some problems and hide others. Thisis all well planned and accords with sel-interest, wariness o tensionsand ear o social confict. It is eectively managed through the mani-pulation o inormation, language and political discourse.

Breakdown o social reproduction andthe crisis o care the great orgotten

The logic o the operation and expansion o global capitalism is notonly hitting the limits o the biosphere but is creating increasingly un-sustainable situations in terms o inequality and the social reproductioncapacity o human societies, above all in the major metropolises o theplanet. Many o these vast spaces are now increasingly socially polari-sed and ungovernable. This is particularly true o the mega-cities o theglobal South, where a multitude o anti-social behaviours prolierateand where an eort is made to conront them with a heavy increasein repression and in prison populations. In these metropolises, povertyand violence hit hardest at women, on whose shoulders all the taskso care and social reproduction.

There is a growing confict between the logic o capital and the logic

o lie. Capitalist expansion depends on two essential arenas in orderto continue growing: nature and the domestic sphere, both ree up tonow, and both to a great extent reaching the limits o their capacity tosustain. The impetus or this is twoold: rst the energy and ecologicalcollapses currently underway, and secondly the unstoppable crisis othe tasks o care and reproduction. These tasks are essential to themaintenance o human and non-human lie. Moreover, all humanbeings are interdependent and eco-dependent the idea o a com-petitive homo economicus, independent o others and o nature, is anabsolute ction (Herrero, 2008; Orozco, 2008; Charkiewicz, 2009).

However, the invisibility o the energy and ecological crises and o


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social reproduction is very notable. The Global Village has an enor-mous capacity to hide things, and urthermore the institutional andcorporate message has been that, despite everything, we are walkingtowards social and environmental sustainability. These attitudes haveostered an unusual complacency towards global capitalism. Such com-placency is also lubricated by the consumption capacity o the middleclasses, particularly in the central countries and above all among theglobal elites. Moreover, the pattern o living and consumption o thosesectors is what drives the demands o the world population, activatedby a publicity industry that projects them to the entire world. But the

global urban-agri-industrial system is like an iceberg, and we are onlyshown its benign side, that is to say its visible side. Its darker, deeperside is hidden rom us, invisible in media terms, remaining generallysubmerged. Or it is projected every once in a while to spark collectiveear, generate passivity and guarantee the governance o societies.

However, this dark side is becoming increasingly dicult to hide be-cause o the multi-dimensional global crisis that is underway. The crisisis creating a situation where a signicant part o humanity has becomesuperfuous to the dynamics o capital. The poor hold no interest orthe power capitalists, either as producers (there is too much labour)or as consumers (there is too much misery). The world o labour hasthereore entered on a serious downside vis-a-visglobal capitalism, butthis situation will undoubtedly change when the energy crisis explodesin all its erocity and globalisation breaks down, demanding once againthe input o human and animal labour.

Between two slogans: Save the Planeto the new Green Capitalism

and Business as Usual

Global capitalism is today hovering between continuing with Businessas Usual, within the current energy, environmental and geopoliticalconditions, and adopting the Save the Planet position o the newGreen Capitalism. Up to now, the rst position has been clearly repre-sented by the United States and to a greater or lesser extent by othercentral and emerging world powers, e.g. Australia and Canada, alsoChina, India and Brazil; in other words those who did not sign theKyoto 1 Protocol. The second position is represented mainly by theEuropean Union and to a much lesser extent by the others who signedthe Kyoto Protocol or who benet rom it, but who today tilt towardthe rst group. These others are mainly Russia and Eastern Countries

who beneted through the sale o what is known as hot air, i.e. theCO2 that has not been emitted since 1990 as a result o the industrialcollapse o the USSR and its area o infuence.

Prior to the outbreak o the global crisis (20072008) and up untilthe ailed Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change, it looked like it

would be possible (although not without tensions) to implement theso-called Green Way o global capitalism, which would be madeconcrete in Kyoto II with a global reach, urther developing the paththat had been undertaken by Kyoto I.

The election o Obama to the presidency o the United Statesseemed to indicate that the so-called Green Way was unblocked, as


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it also had support rom a signicant part o the corporate world (theworld o Davos principally). However, the outbreak o the global crisis,the orce o dominant economic interests and the growing tensions

within the G20 (the main world state actors who represent 85 percent o the world GDP and two-thirds o the global population) arestalling the Green Way, despite the act that China is becoming themain exporter o inrastructure or renewable energy and Brazil is agiant o agri-uels.

The Cancun Summit once again certied the growing drit towardsBusiness as Usual, to the detriment o the Green Way, as evidenced

by the act that oil has once again surpassed $100 a barrel, ater ha-ving dropped in 2009 towards $40 a barrel due to the all in growthprovoked by the recession recovering once again at a world level in2010, primarily due to the economic boom rom emerging nations,

which once again propelled the consumption o Black Gold, renewingthe gradual but steep increase in prices.

Moreover, the proound crises and events that are taking place inthe Arab world could mean that in a short period o time oil prices willsky-rocket. At time o writing Libya was in crisis, and there was talk thatoil could reach $200 a barrel. The strong rise in price o crude oil isperhaps the best indicator that we are already at the point o Peak Oil,given the incapacity to substitute the supply that a member o OPEClike Libya creates. Libya is o secondary importance because it onlyproduces 1.6 million barrels a day, while world consumption is 86million barrels a day. The situation in the Arab world has set o all the

alarms, with talk once again o an energy crisis. This occurred briefyin 2008 when oil reached nearly $150 but it immediately disappearedrom public debate when it ell abruptly in 2009 to a quarter o thishistoric gure.

It is interesting that there is such a weak collective memory in thisarea, and we can only assume that it is uelled by a determination toavoid publicly conronting an energy crisis o historic dimensions suchas the one we are currently mired in. Only when the tremendousorce o the true acts put global capitalism between a rock and a hardplace, will the power structures in dierent societies begin to acceptthis incontrovertible reality. Rises in the price o crude oil aects the

entire operation o global capitalism, and can thereore endanger therecovery that has begun. Moreover, these oil price rises ully impactall societies in the world because o the consequent rise in the price oevery other commodity (e.g. ood, transport, energy), and contributesto new cycles o socio-political confict. The strategic thinking centresin the main industralised countries are ully aware they do not haveavailable alternatives to conront this serious energy crisis. For thisreason they fee rom public debate, vainly hoping that the situation

will resolve itsel.However, returning to the Green Way o global capitalism, which

consists in trying to carry out an energy transition, without questioningthe logic o global capitalism, and thereore without putting a stop tocapitalisms intrinsic need or constant growth and accumulation, usingeverything at hand to achieve this, but with an impromptu Greentechnology added. O course this involves continuing to rely on oil andnatural gas, while aiming to contain their use. But above all it promo-tes nuclear energy, agri-uels and centralised renewable energy. Thisrenewable energy, o much lower density, is the epitome o all thesechoices, with a strong technological component, and is the Greenbanner that is waved at every turn.

Moreover, agri-uels and nuclear energy are promoted as the mostadequate ways to combat climate change, as they do not emit CO2, weare erroneously inormed. Proponents obuscate regarding the negativeside-eects o these, e.g. in the case o agri-uels, the aggravation o thegreenhouse eect due to the urther push on the agricultural rontier,

the boosting o industrialised agriculture and the breakdown o thetraditional rural world. Coal is also not ruled out but comes with thelabel clean and with proposed complicated mechanisms to captureand store CO2 aiming to reduce its impact.

However, this means more energy consumption and more costs,apart altogether rom a very complex and expensive technology.Energy transition is a square peg in a round hole because, as we havealready pointed out, there is no available or easible plan B, eventhough it is claimed that there is. Moreover, this transition is accom-panied by the so-called emissions trade - the Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions rom Deorestation and


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Forest Degradation (REDD). The latter involves mechanisms to reduceemissions by stopping deorestation and the degradation o orests.However, these hide a growing transnational appropriation o naturalorests and their biodiversity, as well as impelling orestry mono-crops,and the process is greased by monetary transers to the elites o theglobal South. All o these measures are intertwined with the interestso capitalist expropriation and are increasingly nancialised, makingpossible their expansion and encouraging the creation o new marketsand speculative bubbles.

However, the Green Way is showing itsel to be increasingly ex-

pensive and complex, and thereore the situation appears to be onceagain tilting toward the Business as Usual scenario. Certain obligatoryGreen touches are adhered to, on the one hand, while on the otherecological restrictions are lited to boost growth. This is a schizophre-nic position. The current Business as Usual ocus (current becauseit cannot be as it was beore, even i it wants to) consists in growingand increasing the systemic complexity, consuming increased amountso energy, and resources, in the cheapest possible way, according tothe geological, socio-political and territorial determinants. Its energymix would include components o ossils (to a greater extent thanin the Green Way), more nuclear, more coal-to-liquids (CTL) - aconversion o coal into liquids similar to oil, more agri-uels, morecentralised renewable energies (although with ar less weight than inthe Green Way) and ar less complex regarding the use o coal in anyorm. Thereore, no clean (and expensive) coal, to appease a restless

population.One example o the renewed Business as Usual attitude is the Uni-

ted States, whose policies have undergone certain changes with Obama- conditioned and modied by Republicanism and the powerul oilsector. Others are Australia (although the new Labour governmenthas introduced certain changes), the countries o the Persian Gul andto a greater degree China and India. In each case there are dierentreasons or adopting this position but essentially these are countries

who did not adhere to Kyoto 1 and who are opposed to Kyoto II.The rest o the planet remains expectant, above all the 170 states

outside the G20 and in particular those which do not have ossil uels

(or are exhausting them), waiting to see what the powerul do andwhat crumbs they might obtain rom the two models. For now it wouldappear that the updated Business as Usual position has won. This isparticularly true ater the enormous ailure o Copenhagen, where theEU was marginalised, and because o the lack o substance in what

was obtained in Cancun. In the next two decades, we will see howthese positions become concrete, metamorphosing and even mixingthese two extreme paths o the evolution o global capitalism. Neitherposition is aimed at an open reduction o global energy consumptionor a sustainable energy re-conversion. The intrinsic need or constant

growth and accumulation makes the race ahead obligatory, in oneway or another, exhausting ossil uels o increasingly lower qualityand higher costs.

The only actors who can bet on a certain orced post-ossil tran-sition are those weak and peripheral states without economic orpoliticalmilitary capacity to access ossil uels that are increasinglyscarce and expensive. Such states are without nancial clout requiredin a world market that uses strong currencies, and the majority o themcould not resort to military strength i the conrontation between theglobal power structures over ossil uels grows worse. But in this orceddetour, they could lose their sovereign stability. On the other hand, aew actors have recently emerged who have openly questioned thisdeadly game among the powerul. They are those who denouncedthe so-called Copenhagen (Non)Agreement Venezuela, Bolivia, andEcuador.

These three nations still contain important reserves o ossil uelsand have governments supported or conditioned by broad-based so-cial movements. But they also ollow a model o resource extraction,though they do not bend to global powers, and are using a moreredistributive logic regarding the revenues rom ossil exploitation.In Cancun, however, only Bolivia was opposed to the insubstantialagreement that was reached and the position o Bolivia was overrun bythe concluding Plenary o the COP 16. (Fernndez Durn, 2011b).


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Systemic crisis, war or resourcesand a major demographic shit

The most probable scenario in the next two decades resulting romthe current crises o global capitalism will be its breakdown as a worldsystem, ollowed by the emergence o new regional capitalisms at aplanetary level. Regional capitalism will have a very distinctive natu-re, conditioned by the limits o energy, ecology and climate that thecapitalist system will encounter in its suicidal detour. The breakdowno global capitalism and the irruption o regional capitalisms, in strongcompetition among themselves, implies systemic chaos and open riva-lry or raw materials and markets among the main world state actors(the states rom the group o G20 or regional groups within it EU,IBSA (India, Brazil, South Arica), BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China,South Arica), UNASUR, NAFTA (USA, Canada, Mexico). The chaos

and rivalry will be compounded by an increasingly unregulated andhighly confictive competition among those states, which could leadto an open war or resources and the establishment by orce o areaso infuence.

Such a scenario has echoes o inter-imperialist rivalry, a rivalry thatdates back to the beginning o the twentieth century, but it will alsobe conditioned by the transition o an industrial world that up to nowhas been characterised by abundance to a variety o societies that

will be marked by scarcity and decline (Greer, 2009). Undoubtedlythis is not the option o the advocates o the World o Davos (thecurrent world o massive, mostly Western, transnational and nancial

corporations), but gradually it is being orecast as the most probableroute or the desperate path o global capitalism. Besides, all o this

will be punctuated by a demographic explosion, with heavy regionalimbalances - an explosion that will likely be halted and reversed as thesystemic crisis worsens. Nevertheless, the migratory currents will or atime continue to rise rom territories that are most lacking in resourcesand in the strategic capacity to maintain their populations.

The systemic crisis o global capitalism will lead to proound worldchanges, the likes o which have not been witnessed in more than500 years, when the dominance o the West (and capitalism) began

to emerge. Enormous fuctuations that are dicult to predict may beactivated as a result o the tendency within global capitalism to pushits limits to the very extreme. This is already taking place in severalareas (regional and planetary bio-capacity, or example), although thesigns are still not clearly visible due to the capacity o the ghost loadthat ossil uels have provided to date.

When a system such as global capitalism abruptly withdraws romits dynamic o growth and unstable equilibrium, uncontrolled proces-ses can be unleashed. I we look back at the ruptures caused by, orexample, the French Revolution or the Russian Revolution, we observethat despite their immense orce, which led to extraordinary change(Wallerstein, 2009), both were nally assimilated and at the same timeboosted the system that was already emerging: industrial civilisation.This assimilation adopted two distinct paths during a major part o thetwentieth century: Western capitalism o a liberal character and State

capitalism with a communist, socialist character. And when State capi-talism entered its crisis and collapse, it was incorporated within globalcapitalism. But this type o transition will not happen now, as we arealready in the climax o industrial civilisation, and it is not possible toextend it, since its decomposition and demise has already begun.

The long decline o industrial civilisation will imply a world demo-graphic collapse, and thereore we are close to the peak o an historic

world population (Heinberg, 2008). The democratic collapse will takeplace long beore the time orecast by bodies such as the UN, as suchorecasts consider that the position oBusiness as Usualcould continue

without set-back.


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Thirty lost years and a Full World,with reduced options or possible utures

Three decades ater the energy crisis o the 1970s, global energy con-sumption has increased by more than 70 per cent (Naredo, 2007).This strong increase in energy consumption has largely been ed byossil uels, and in turn the exploitation o ossil uels has led to theirprogressive decline and exhaustion. However, orecasts or worldenergy consumption rom the IEA or 2030 are indeed very optimistic:an increase o nearly 50 per cent in the next two decades (see Figure6), a signicant amount o which will come rom ossil uels, with acorresponding increase in CO2 emissions. All o this is to take place in a

world o 8 billion people - 1 billion more than in March 2007. Besides,we are already living in a Full World (Daly, 1999), in comparison tothe Empty Worldat the beginning o the twentieth century. The terms

Full Worldand Empty World reer to the rate o consumption o theenvironmental space carried out principally by the urban-agri-industrialsystem, a consumption that also depends on the number o people onthe planet, with enormously diverseper capita levels. A third o humanbeings consume only or subsistence and with a low ecological impact;a social minority consume voraciously, and a broad swathe o middleclasses indulge in the over-consumption o planetary resources.

By comparing the data curves in Figure 1 above (ASPO predic-tions) and Figure 6 below (IEA predictions), we can observe signicantdiscrepancies regarding oil and gas projections or the period up to2030. The IEA (Figure 6) assumes that it will be possible to continue

extracting an increasing amount, some 25 per cent more - throughunidentied projects. ASPO on the other hand (Figure 1) inorms usthat the availability o oil and gas will be reduced by approximately15 per cent, and will be more expensive to extract, more dicult toaccess and o lower quality (Prieto, 2010). Besides, it has been indica-ted earlier in the text that coal cannot cover, in operational or energyterms, the signicant supply gap that the decline o gas and oil willopen up.

Apart rom clariying the contradictory orecasts o uture energysupplies, these brie data also allow us to question the demographic

and urbanisation projections o the UN - a body closely linked to theIEA.

Figure 6: IEA projections o world consumption by energy sources

Coal

Oil

Nuclear

1980

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990

billion tonnes o oil equivalent

2000 2010 2020 2030

HydroBiomass

Other renewables

Gas

Source: Prieto (2010)

Refection on these contradictory orecasts conrms or us that inthe past 30 years o heavy expansion o global capitalism we havemissed the opportunities to respond to some dramatic scenarios. Wehave passed over the possibility or a non-traumatic post-ossil ueltransition. And we will lose even more ground in the uture i wedo not begin to react now. We no longer have the luxury o decades

within which to operate a theoretically-grounded, gradual transitiontoward a post-ossil uel world, as was the case in the 1970s. Rather,


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the paltry amount o exploitable ossil uels remaining will soon beginto tragically reduce existing possibilities or the uture. I we decide tocontinue pushing industrial society, a dynamic that all existing powerstructures and the logic o the system itsel are counting on, the ener-gy resources needed to begin a real and orderly post-ossil transition

will be severely curtailed. Thereore, when the uture is the present,in 2030, there will be practically no resources available or such atransition. Moreover, the biosphere will have become an increasinglydegraded space, with serious problems o habitability, resulting romthe worsening o the ecological crisis and the intensication o climate

change.We will then not be in a Full World, but rather a Replete World,

plagued with confict and violence, where a brutal and unprecedenteddemographic collapse is highly probable. For this reason, the post-ossiluel transition could become more abrupt and chaotic. In any case, thetransition will take place when we reach the geological limits o ossiluels. Moreover, i a true post-ossil uel transition has not yet begun

when we reach Peak Carbon, there will not be enough available netenergy to maintain the urban-agri-industrial system and to tackle atransition that only begins then (Heinberg, 2009; Greer, 2008).

The capacity thereore to intervene and change the dominant pathis small and much reduced, but it is not yet at zero point, thoughduring the next two decades we certainly have a ull wind against us.However, it is essential to recognise that a new world energy regimeo a post-ossil uel nature, above all one that is emancipating, will not

emerge without strong organisation, a capacity or social co-operation,and the willingness to engage in political confict, ingredients that arenot operating today in the vast majority o modernised spaces.

The post-ossil uel transition, and the way it unolds, is not justa question o conronting the exhaustion o ossil uels, but will de-pend on human energy, political will and the social struggle that willbe invested in the transition (Abramsky, 2006, 2010). Moreover, itdepends on whether the remaining energy resources are collectiveproperty or are privately owned. And everything indicates that thedegrowth between now and 2030 will be chaotic, not ordered andjust. Nevertheless, it is essential to cultivate and reinorce the seeds

o an ordered, just and sustainable transormation, even in a totallyadverse environment, in order to later ortiy and generate sucientcritical mass so that the reverse can become true, in uture times.

It is also necessary to point out that a post-ossil uel regime couldbe extremely authoritarian, implying a re-eudalisation o social rela-tions. All o this depends on how it takes place and on the conscience,organisation and social strength available to steer it in an emancipatingdirection. In 20 or 30 years we will see an energy, productive andsocio-political system that is very dierent rom the current one. It isnot yet clear what orm it will adopt, what technology it will have,

who will benet and who will pay the costs, although it is possible orus to venture trends and establish possible variations that we may beable to infuence. This is what we are attempting to name in this text.However, while we believe it is possible to make certain predictions

with a certain amount o condence, the concrete orm they will adoptis something else and is unknown to us.


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Financialcorporate collapse,rupture o globalisation,

and geopolitical breakdown

In our understanding, one o the possible uture scenarios will emergein the orm o a triad: a collapse o the current nancialcorporate

world, a rupture o global capitalism, and a breakdown o the hege-mony o the United States, and o the dominion o the West in general.These are intimately related, although their occurrence may not besimultaneous. But as has been indicated they will occur within thenext two decades, and sooner rather than later. The overwhelmingmilitary might o the United States may delay, though not by much, thecrisis o US hegemony, a crisis that has been obvious or many years.However, its high dependency on oil, which is increasingly sourcedoshore, makes the US particularly vulnerable to the energy decline.

Moreover, its heavy dependence on the world o Wall Street and onthe dollar as the world currency, along with its elevated scal decitand debt - 10 per cent and 100 per cent o GDP respectively (IMF,2010), makes the US very sensitive to any nancial and monetary crisis.

We have been observing this since 2007-2008, although up to nowthe worst has been contained. What is more probable is that the crisiso the hegemony o the US will be anything but peaceul.

The systemic crisis has thereore entered a phase o progressivebreakdown and geopolitical re-composition that will lead to the nan-cial, economic and socio-political decomposition o global capitalism.Peak Oil will herald a permanent and abrupt all in global economic

growth and a collapse o the world nancial system as we know it.The most ragile link o global capitalism is its nancial dimension,

although this may appear to be its most powerul, and in the interestso which everything must be sacriced. In act, the main central stateshave dedicated signicant amounts o money, obtained by issuingdebt, or through monetary mechanisms, to save their nancial systemsand to contain in whatever way possible the depreciation o assets oall types (equities, real estate, nancial). A true global nancial coup!And global capitalism has managed, momentarily, despite nearly des-troying itsel in the attempt, and above all by razing the social order,

or its remains, to pay exorbitant interest or the debt that has beenborrowed. In this way, the nancialcorporate world has managed tomove ahead, in some cases becoming more concentrated and takingon greater global scope.

However, at the same time there have been signicant re-balanceso world power to the detriment o the West. The West increasinglyconcentrates a greater debt (public and private) and the East morecapital, and both are woven together by a network o nancial centresand scal havens, where a gigantic volume o multinational capitalresides and operates without control. And all the while, the so-calledcreative destruction has begun to operate again, at least partially andmomentarily.

However, the onset o energy decline implies a deepening o thesystemic crisis. Instead o creative destruction we are about to witnessdestructive destruction, or the rst time in the history o capitalism,

in particular since the industrial revolution. The industrial revolutionproduced another revolution the nancial revolution. The privatebanks loan more money than they possess, thus generating moneybased on debt, and this does not raise any problem i the economyis in constant growth. But i this premise is not ullled (beyond a cer-tain time), the system collapses. This is particularly true i a persistenteconomic decline takes hold, a decline that has no end, as is expected(Heinberg, 2006). It is even more certain as regards current globalcapitalism, highly nancialised and deregulated as it is, and based ona pyramid o endless debt.

The global nancial meltdown is a given, and will mainly impact on


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the West, marked by the highest volumes o a nancial dimension, inparticular o a private nature. But it will probably be closely ollowedby a huge impact on a signicant part o the corporate world, the greattrans-nationals, the majority also rom the West. This is because theseare unded through the main nancial markets and their operation isbased on low energy costs, key components that ensure world tradeand the current international highly specialised division o labour. Allo this will begin to explode with the onset o energy decline, parti-cularly because o the growing scarcity and high cost o oil, sparkinga progressive breakdown and disarticulation o the dynamics o glo-

balisation and the progressive decomposition o major (particularlyWestern) multinationals, particularly those based on private capital.

However, the collapse in the centres will dier rom that in theperipheries, as we are already observing. Emerging states such as China,India and Brazil are experiencing a signicant growth rate, while in the

Western world, the United States, the EU and Japan have ground toa halt or have entered a recession. But let us not be deceived! Globalcapitalism operates as one, as a giant, complex, interdependent andconfictive puzzle, and we cannot understand one piece separate romthe others. Moreover, it is not possible that one survives alone i theothers enter into crisis. This is also true or the newly emerging centres(China and India, or example). How will they emerge without a majorconsumer like the United States, which up to recently has uelled the

world economy? likewise i the consumer demands o the EU dropabruptly? And how can these countries emerge powerully without

the raw material and energy resources that are necessary or theiroperation?

Furthermore, the two new giants, China and India, are quicklyconsuming their best and most accessible coal reserves (which theydepend on or more than 70 per cent o raw energy). This will deci-sively aect their eorts to maintain high growth rates in the uture(Heinberg, 2009). The same can be said about the consequences o thecurrent rising price o oil, which could bring the global recovery thathas been underway since 2010 to a halt, leading to higher infation andinterest rates, as well as making investment o all types more expensive.Heinberg in his latest book, The End o Growth (2011, at press), tells us

how continuous growth has come to an end, even though there arestill relatively signicant expansions in some parts o the world, basedabove all on global capitalism, supported by the main states. Withoutsuch assisted capitalism, growth would have already come to an end.And, i it continues, the recent and steep increase in the cost o crudeoil could be the denitive, nal blow.

Thus the deepening o the global crisis will be maniested in un-equal ways across the world and its worsening and eventual impact willdepend to a great extent on the availability o energy and natural re-sources, as well as the way dierent societies are preparing to conront

the energy decline, and equally their greater or lesser vulnerability inthe ace o the world energy crisis. However, it is important to under-line here that global capitalism is principally a series o world powerrelationships - e.g. emissions o international money, world commercialfows, the global and state institutional ramework, hierarchical militarypower, energy control, regulation o the labour orce and migratorycurrents. It is all on the verge o experiencing very serious mutations.In act these have already begun, although in an underground ashionthat will soon burst through to the surace.

Finally, the breakdown o the world monetarynancial system,provoked and accompanied by the energy decline, may lead to twoapparently contradictory global phenomena. It is possible that we

will see processes o defation and hyperinfation at the same time.Defation will result rom the all in the monetary value o nancialassets and real estate. This will apply to the value o assets that, up to

now, have housed the monetary and nancial wealth o the world: ocorporations, massive private ortunes and assets o part o the middleclasses. At the same time we will see infation-spikes, or hyperinfationo the so-called real economy, as a result o the sharp price rises oenergy and resources in general. This will also be driven by the raceorward by states towards increasing indebtedness, due to the progres-sive monetisation o their debt and because o the daily more activemonetary devaluation that they seek in order to propel growth viaexports.

This will be particularly true in the United States when the worldno longer has condence in the dollar as the currency o world he-


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gemony. Furthermore, as we have observed, this gap cannot be lledby the euro a weak currency, without a unied state to deend it,a currency that is being hounded by nancial speculation and couldeven explode in the short term. And neither will the gap be lled byany other currency with even less global weight than the euro - e.g.the yen, the yuan. We are already witnessing a world currency war,

with strong tensions between the West and the emerging spaces, in-capable o being stopped by the G20, and probably set to increase inthe uture a war that will lead to an increase in state protectionismand a all in world trade. At the same time, the value o gold, the

world currency par excellence (the Keynesian barbarous relic), willreach sky-high levels, in the ace o the lack o condence in the worldmonetary system. Condence is a key, though ragile, element, in theoperation o the world market.

All o this will predictably accompany the explosion o currentglobal capitalism, maniest in an unequal manner on a world scale,beore it consolidates in dierent regional capitalisms at a planetarylevel, capitalisms that will have a strong state component and a highlevel o confictive attitudes towards one another.

Towards new regional state capitalisms,ghting among themselves?

When global capitalism breaks down, the most probable scenario isthe creation o dierent regional planetary blocs, which will operateprimarily under the capitalist logic, although

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Breakdown Capitalism