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THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report - public distribution
Date: 9/5/2019
GAIN Report Number: BR 1924
Brazil
Livestock and Products Annual
2019 Annual Livestock Report
Approved By:
Oliver Flake, Agricultural Counselor
Prepared By:
Joao F. Silva, Agricultural Specialist
Report Highlights:
Post forecasts beef production in 2020 at 10.5 million metric tons, which is an increase of 3 percent.
The increase is driven by solid exports, mostly to China and Hong Kong, and higher domestic demand.
Post forecasts pork production to increase by 4.5 percent and reach a record of nearly 4.1 million metric
tons, reflecting continued strong exports to China, higher domestic demand, and stable feed costs next
year. The expected growth of the Brazilian economy in 2020 by over 2 percent, with declining inflation
and unemployment rates, and higher consumer purchasing power, supports optimism in the animal
protein sector in Brazil. However, trade dispute between the United States and China and exchange rate
fluctuations remain uncertainties for the industry.
PAGE 2
Executive Summary:
The outlook for beef and pork production in 2020 calls for an increase of 3 and 4.5 percent,
respectively. The main drivers supporting this production outlook are projected record exports of both
beef and pork in 2020, mostly to China, and the strengthening in domestic demand due to a rebound in
economic activity expected next year. Production factors for both beef and pork, such as stable feed
costs due to a projected bumper soybean and corn crops, and increased carcass weights, are fueling
optimism for the both industries next year. The uncertainties facing the sector are fluctuations in the
exchange rate and a possible agreement between the United States and China. The announcement of a
trade agreement between MERCOSUL and the European Union is not a driver in Post projections
because it is not expected to enter into force next year, as the agreement needs to be ratified by all
parties.
Commodities:
Animal Numbers, Cattle
Production:
Post forecasts calf crop production in 2020 to increase by two percent as herd expansion continues in
Brazil along with increasing productivity. Cattle production will continue to be supported by several
government programs, such as subsidized agricultural credit for pasture improvement, recovery of
degraded pastures, crossbreeding programs using imported cattle genetics, proper nutrition, health and
increasing use of reproductive technologies. The projected weather pattern for 2020 calls for more
precipitation benefiting pastures in the Center-West regions, which account for about 40 percent of the
cattle production in Brazil. This is an important production factor for Brazil’s grass-fed cattle.
Brazil is officially divided into five regions: North, Northeast, Center-West, Southeast and South. About
60 percent of Brazil’s cattle herd is concentrated in the Center West and North regions, mostly in the
state of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Para, which are in the so-called pre-amazon area, but
outside of the Amazon biome. Expansion in these areas was spurred by cheap land and deforestation by
the wood industry. However, because of seasonal forest fires in the area, partly due to the annual dry
period (June through August), cattle producers are under scrutiny from the international community.
Expansion of cattle breeding in these three states, which together account for nearly 40 percent of the
cattle herd in Brazil, is estimated at 11 percent during the past ten years.
PAGE 3
As the chart above illustrates, growth in cattle is focused in the Center-West region and to a lesser
extent in the North. Only the south and southeast regions have seen an actual contraction in the size of
the heard over the past decade while the Northeastern heard has expanded but comprises a percentage of
the national share. Sao Paulo and Parana have seen the biggest decreases in beef cattle numbers while
Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul have experienced the most growth.
Livestock production in Brazil is mostly grass fed. Feedlots only account for an estimated 10 percent of
Brazil’s meat production. However, trade analysts expect production of meat under some type of feedlot
system to double in the next five years, mostly in the Center-West as a means to limit the weight loss
common in the dry season (May through September).
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Source: IEG/FNP
Confinement feeding in Brazil is estimated to have increased by about 12 percent since 2019. Feedlots
are concentrated in Sao Paulo state and the Center-West states of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Mato Grosso
do Sul. These four states alone account for 73 percent of all feedlots in Brazil. Semi-confinement
systems were cattle are fed grain rations while on pasture (primarily in the dry season) are also
increasing and concentrated in the Center-West.
Post recently visited production areas in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul where beef feedlot operations
are growing in size and efficiency. Increasingly livestock operations are using the “industrial cross” of
the local Nelore with U.S. or Argentine Angus genetics. This industrial cross is both heat and tick
tolerant (from the Nelore) while at the same time providing feed efficiency (Angus). Though generally
in Brazil there is little premium paid for quality marbling, feedlots around the Campo Grande area in
Mato Grosso do Sul reported minimal premiums for industrial cross cattle compared to straight Nelore.
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Animal Numbers,
Cattle 2018 2019 2020
Market Begin Year Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
Brazil USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
Total Cattle Beg.
Stks
232350 232350 238158 238158 0 244143
Dairy Cows Beg.
Stocks
41820 41820 43105 42250 0 43750
Beef Cows Beg.
Stocks
58080 58080 59775 57200 0 58100
Production (Calf
Crop)
49500 49500 50490 50490 0 51500
Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply 281850 281850 288648 288648 0 295643
Total Exports 790 790 1000 630 0 820
Cow Slaughter 9600 9600 9500 9500 0 9500
Calf Slaughter 300 300 300 300 0 300
Other Slaughter 29702 29702 30990 30775 0 31750
Total Slaughter 39602 39602 40790 40575 0 41550
Loss and Residual 3300 3300 3300 3300 0 3300
Ending Inventories 238158 238158 243558 244143 0 249973
Total Distribution 281850 281850 288648 288648 0 295643
(1000 HEAD)
Note: Not Official USDA Data.
Prices
During Jan-Aug 2019, the average price of fed cattle increased 5.3 percent, while operational costs
increased by 2.3 percent. According to cattle specialists, the outlook for cattle prices in 2020 calls for a
small increase in the price of fed cattle supported by strong beef exports and higher domestic demand.
The fed cattle/calf ratio during Jan-August 2019 reached 1.93 compared to 1.87 in 2018. The futures
price for fed cattle (October 2019) shows an increase of 2.5 percent over the August average, signaling a
good price outlook for fed cattle.
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Note: Prices for São Paulo state. Source: CEPEA
Note: Prices for São Paulo state. Source: CEPEA
Trade:
Imports: Brazil is not a significant importer of live cattle, but a major importer of beef and dairy cattle
genetics and the United States is a traditional supplier of cattle semen to Brazil. Traders expect cattle
semen imports to increase in 2020 due to the improvement of domestic cattle prices, availability of
government funds at subsidized interest rates under the cattle genetic improvement program and a stable
exchange rate. The United States recovered market share in the Brazilian market growing by 22 percent
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Jan-Jul 2018 and by 63 percent during the same period in 2019, as Canada lost sales in the Brazilian
market.
Exports: Post revised the estimate for cattle exports in 2019 and lowered the forecast for cattle exports
in 2020 due to reduced demand from Turkey, although Egypt and Iraq have increased significantly
imports of live cattle from Brazil. In addition, logistical and legal problems with ports in Brazil
(suspension of pre-shipment establishments) have become a major constraint to export live cattle in
2019 and may continue to hinder exports in 2020. Brazil finalized sanitary agreements last year with
Vietnam and Saudi Arabia (genetic material), which promises new sales. Negotiations are ongoing for
sanitary agreements with China, Malaysia and Mauritius Islands.
Commodities:
Meat, Beef and Veal
Production:
Post forecasts beef production in 2020 to increase by 3 percent and reach a record of 10.5 million metric
tons carcass weight equivalent (MT/CWE). This projected increase in beef production is driven by the
following factors:
Record beef exports in 2019, which may continue next year, both in volume and receipts;
an increase in domestic demand;
an increase in carcass weights due to long-term programs aimed at improving the efficiency of
the livestock sector in Brazil, specifically a successful cross breeding program using the Nelore
breed with imported European type breeds, such as Angus and Brangus genetics, mostly
imported from the United States;
the government of Brazil continues to provide funds (estimated at US$ 1.2 billion) at subsidized
rates to increase cattle raising productivity, herd quality through pasture improvement, and
acquisition of high-quality seed stock.
feed lot operations are projected to increase by over five percent in 2020 from 5.5 million to
nearly 6 million head. The increase is mostly attributed to higher cattle prices and lower feed
costs. Most of the increase in feedlots are in the Center-West region, which is close to higher
supplies of silage.
Meat, Beef and Veal 2018 2019 2020
PAGE 8
Market Begin Year Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
Brazil USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
Slaughter (Reference) 39602 39602 40790 40575 0 41550
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0
Production 9900 9900 10200 10210 0 10510
Total Imports 48 48 45 30 0 40
Total Supply 9948 9948 10245 10240 0 10550
Total Exports 2083 2083 2210 2220 0 2370
Human Dom.
Consumption
7865 7865 8035 8020 0 8180
Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom.
Consumption
7865 7865 8035 8020 0 8180
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 9948 9948 10245 10240 0 10550
(1000 HEAD) ,(1000 MT CWE) Note: Not Official USDA Data.
Domestic Consumption Post projects beef consumption to increase by nearly 2 percent in 2020. Most market analysts project
that domestic demand for animal protein will strengthen in 2020 due to a rebound in economic activity.
The outlook for Brazil’s GDP in 2020 calls for an increase of 2.3 percent, with lower inflation and
unemployment rates, and higher consumer purchasing power. Industry sources report that growing beef
consumption is partly a result of competition with other meats in the food service sector. The trend is to
move from butcher shops to beef cuts sold in supermarkets. In addition, major packers have developed
“house brands” for major restaurant and barbecue houses in Brazil. Beef consumption in Brazil remains
second to chicken meat around 40 percent of total animal protein consumption in Brazil.
PAGE 9
Trade:
Beef exports are forecast to increase at a slower pace in 2020, by 7 percent, to another record of nearly
2.4 million metric tons (CWE), driven mostly by higher exports to China and Hong Kong. In 2019,
Brazil is expected to hit a record in beef exports, both in volume and receipts. This is mostly attributed
to the impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China, but also to an increase in exports to other
markets, such as Egypt, Russia, Chile and the Middle East countries. The following is a brief overview
of the main markets for Brazilian beef in 2020:
China/Hong Kong: Despite a delay in the approval process of new plants to export to China/Hong
Kong, Brazilian packers are optimistic that beef exports will increase to these two markets due to the
negative impact of ASF, which is changing consumer preference in China toward consumption of
chicken meat and beef. However, a wild card is a possible trade agreement between the United States
and China.
Other markets: Post projects higher beef exports to growing markets, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
UAE, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Iran. Industry contacts expect that exports to these markets will increase
based on the competitive prices of Brazilian beef, although exchange rate fluctuations remain an
uncertainty.
New markets: Local traders are optimistic regarding an increase of Brazilian beef exports to the Muslim
world. The current priority of exporters is to open the Indonesian market for Brazilian beef, which will
likely occur this year. Currently, there are over 100 cattle slaughter plants in Brazil approved under the
halal system. Packers are looking to increase productivity in this area by adopting the slaughter box
system for cattle under the halal ritual. This would allow packers to meet higher demand from Muslim
importers. Indonesia recently authorized beef imports from 10 Brazilian meat-packing plants, which
offers a potential market estimated at 25,000 metric tons. Other negotiations are under way with
additional Asian countries.
PAGE 10
At the present time, Post does not foresee any major sanitary issues that could prevent an increase in
beef exports next year. The recent trade agreement between MERCOSUL and the European Union is
not included in the Post projections because it is not expected to enter into force next year, as
ratification is still needed by parliaments of all country members. However, a possible consumer
boycott of Brazilian beef in some European countries, in protest over the unsustainable agricultural
practices in the Amazon , may impact exports. Recently, VF Corporation, responsible for the trademark
brands of Timberland, the North Face, Kipling and Vans, stated that it has decided not to continue
"purchasing direct leather and leather goods from Brazil for its international businesses until there is an
assurance that the materials used in our products do not contribute towards furthering environmental
damage in the country".
PAGE 11
Export Trade Matrix Country Brazil Commodity Meat, Beef and Veal Time Period Jan-July Units: Metric Tons
2018
2019
U.S. 16,434 U.S. 20,492
Others
Others Angola 3,804
5,206
Algeria 10,217
11,065
Canada 2,191
931
China 157,720
174,968
Chile 60,803
62,883
Egypt 82,214
93,162
European Union 54,005
53,554
Hong Kong 151,818
133,752
Iran 41,471
46,051
Iraq 2,259
1,871
Israel 9,743
13,693
Lebanon 8,743
10,508
Libya 2,847
4,903
Jordan 9,337
12,100
Palestine 2,989
3,025
Phillippines 9,564
17,564
Russian Federation 121
33,762
Saudi Arabia 18,846
23,662
Singapore 8,699
10,287
Turkey 567
17,387
UAE 12,049
56,354
Total for Others 650,007
786,688
Others not Listed 56,179
63,416
Grand Total 722,620
870,596
HTS:0201,0202,021020,160250 Quantity in Product Weight Equivalent (PWE)
Updated: August 20, 2019
PAGE 12
Commodities:
Animal Numbers, Swine
Production:
Post forecast that the 2020 pig crop will increase by 3.5 percent, driven by record pork exports
as well as growth in domestic demand. Pig producers are likely to face continued lower
costs of production next year and good returns from exports due to the impact of African
Swine Fever (ASF) in China and the spread of the disease to Europe. In addition, large
Brazilian packers are investing in pork production capacity to meet world demand for pork.
In Brazil, hog producers are concentrated in the three southern states of Santa Catarina,
Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, which account for 51 percent of hog production (see graphic below) and
46 percent of Brazil's sow herd. The production system in these areas is highly integrated receiving
piglets, meal, vaccines and technical assistance from large packers and
cooperatives. Independent producers are more concentrated in the south and center-west
regions of the country.
The cost of hog production (by kilogram, live weight) declined by 2.3 percent during Jan-Jul
2019, compared to the same period last year, influenced mostly by a decrease of 4.3
percent in nutrition costs, which accounted for 76.3 percent of the total cost of hog
production in Santa Catarina state.
According to the Brazilian Agricultural Research Company (EMRAPA), the outlook for the
near future is for some stability in the cost of production, due to a projected higher corn and
PAGE 13
soybean crops. Independent hog producers, however, are skeptical about the outlook for reduced corn
prices as Brazil is expected to export record amounts of corn in 2019 and 2020 due to higher world
demand and the competitive prices of Brazilian supplies.
Animal Numbers,
Swine 2018 2019 2020
Market Begin Year Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
Brazil USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
Total Beginning
Stocks
38829 38829 38427 38427 0 37718
Sow Beginning
Stocks
2955 2950 2975 2975 0 3005
Production (Pig
Crop)
40954 40954 42500 42500 0 43990
Total Imports 1 1 2 1 0 0
Total Supply 79784 79784 80929 80928 0 81708
Total Exports 8 7 7 10 0 8
Sow Slaughter 160 160 140 140 0 140
Other Slaughter 39990 39990 41860 41860 0 43750
Total Slaughter 40150 40150 42000 42000 0 43890
Loss and Residual 1199 1200 1197 1200 0 1200
Ending Inventories 38427 38427 37725 37718 0 36610
Total Distribution 79784 79784 80929 80928 0 81708
(1000 HEAD)
Note: Not Official USDA Data.
PAGE 14
Month Hog Live weight
(R$/kg)
Corn
(R$/Kg)
Soybean Meal
(R$/kg)
Cost of Production
(R$/Kg)
2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
Jan 3.32 3.12 0.59 0.64 1.20 1.44 3.49 3.86
Feb 3.15 3.19 0.59 0.65 1.26 1.38 3.63 3.83
Mar 3.08 3.39 0.56 0.66 1.45 1.34 3.89 3.81
Apr 3.06 3.53 0.69 0.61 1.48 1.33 3.96 3.73
May 3.06 3.69 0.69 0.59 1.58 1.33 4.07 3.71
Jun 3.08 3.88 0.72 0.63 1.68 1.46 4.17 3.88
Jul 3.06 4.07 0.70 0.64 1.63 1.42 4.10 3.87
Aug 3.06 0.70 1.60 4.06
Sep 3.06 0.72 1.59 4.08
Oct 3.06 0.68 1.53 3.97
Nov 3.08 0.65 1.49 3.89
Dec 3.09 0.64 1.49 3.84
Notes:
(A) All prices for Santa Catarina
(B) Cost of Production is per kilogram of live weight produced in a full cycle system
(C) Average exchange rate Jan-Jul 2018: US$1.00 = R$3.38 and R$3.83 in 2019.
Source: EMBRAPA
PAGE 15
Commodities:
Meat, Swine
Production:
Pork production is forecasted to set another record in 2020 due to Brazilian producers responding to
higher world demand in view of the outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and the spreading
of ASF to Europe. Improved pork prices in both domestic and international markets, stable feed costs,
and new investments in plants to increase production capacity (see export section) are all factors
encouraging a further increase in production next year.
The pork production forecast for 2019 is unchanged. Strong export demand, mostly from
China and the sharp increase in pig prices has significantly improved producer
margins. This combination led to a 3.5 percent increase in pork production for the first
semester of the year, according to preliminary estimates from the industry. The increase is
mostly driven by integrated producers in the south of Brazil.
Meat, Swine 2018 2019 2020
Market Begin Year Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
Brazil USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
Slaughter (Reference) 40150 40150 42000 42000 0 43890
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0
Production 3763 3763 3975 3975 0 4157
Total Imports 2 2 2 1 0 1
Total Supply 3765 3765 3977 3976 0 4158
Total Exports 730 730 900 900 0 1035
Human Dom.
Consumption
3035 3035 3077 3076 0 3123
Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom.
Consumption
3035 3035 3077 3076 0 3123
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 3765 3765 3977 3976 0 4158
(1000 HEAD) ,(1000 MT CWE)
Note: Not Official USDA Data.
PAGE 16
Consumption:
Domestic consumption of pork is likely to grow further in 2020 and reach nearly 3.1
million metric tons (MT/CWE) based on the assumption that the Brazilian economy will
increase by over two percent next year. Additionally, producers will likely be able to
keep feed costs under control thus making retail prices of pork more competitive.
Roughly 70 percent of consumption of pork in Brazil is in the form of processed meats like
ham and sausage, which is more expensive, and consequently, less competitive compared
to beef and chicken. Pork consumption remains third to chicken and beef in Brazil’s
consumer preference with 15 percent of total animal protein consumption in Brazil. The
Brazilian pork industry has invested heavily in a domestic marketing campaign to increase
consumption of fresh pork cuts, mostly in the foodservice.
Trade:
Post forecasts pork exports to increase by 15 percent in 2020 due to the impact of the African Swine
Fever (ASF) in China and other parts of the world. Brazil is currently facing a unique situation of
supplying pork to the world without any major sanitary issues. Brazil has taken significant steps forward
in the sanitary status of the swine industry, such as the recognition by the World Organization for
Animal Health (OIE) of 17 states as free from Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) with vaccination, and
the state of Santa Catarina being free of FMD without vaccination. In addition, Brazil has not had any
outbreak of major diseases, such as African Swine Fever (ASF), Classical Swine Fever (CSF), Porcine
Epidemic Diarrhea (PED), or other critical illness.
China: Trade sources foresee a continued increase in pork exports to China/Hong
Kong in 2020. During the first seven months of 2019, half of Brazil's exports were destined
to these markets. The major concern of Brazilian packers is the approval of new plants to
export to China. The Brazilian government expected these approvals earlier this year. This
situation has prompted major packers in Brazil to invest in current plants eligible to export to
China. According to trade sources, these new investments will increase the production
capacity of these plants by 15 percent during 2019/2020.
Russia: Trade with Russia is also growing in importance after Russia reopened the market for
Brazilian pork in November 2018. However, the market opened with a lower number of both beef and
pork plants eligible to export than previously approved. Traders expect Russia to regain importance in
Brazil´s pork export mix, but at a lower volume than in previous years.
Other markets: Brazilian pork exporters are also focusing on other markets to expand exports
and diversify away from dependence on China. The outbreak of ASF in China and several
countries prompted Brazilian pork exporters to focus on exports to several Asian countries,
such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Vietnam. Brazilian exporters and government
officials are also engaging in market promotion in Angola, Chile and South Africa. Trade
sources continue to forecast a trend upward in these markets due to the quality and safety
of Brazil's pork product and its price competitiveness, assuming less volatility in the exchange rate.
PAGE 17
Export Trade Matrix Country Brazil Commodity Meat, Swine Time Period Jan-Jul Units: Metric Tons
Exports for: 2018
2019
U.S. 1,931 U.S. 3,936
Others
Others Albania 3,772
2,344
Angola 13,689
12,193
Argentina 21,255
19,141
Armenia 1,730
1,106
Azerbaijan 361
511
Chile 17,254
26,433
China 89,220
115,723
Congo Dem. Rep. 2,433
3,032
Georgia 8,164
11,027
Hong Kong 72,379
66,065
Japan 920
2,387
Philippines 3,953
1,717
Puerto Rico 2,307
3,114
Russian Federation 136
27,730
Singapore 21,649
22,020
UAE 4,222
4,203
Uruguay 21,070
24,315
South Africa 3,295
2,429
South Korea 662
2,796
Vietnam 1,652
8,881
Total for Others 290,123
357,167
Others not Listed 10,092
8,186
Grand Total 302,146
369,289
HTS: 020311,020312,020319,020321,020322,020329,
and 021011,021012,021019,160241,160242,160249
Quantity in Product Weight Equivalent (PWE) Updated: August 16, 2019
