Brazil Inflation Eases in Feb

8/2/2019 Brazil Inflation Eases in Feb

1/10

Brazil inflation eases in Feb, backing up rate cut

March 9, 2012

Brad Haynes Reuters, 03/09/2012

Inflation inBrazileased in February to its slowest pace for that month in five years,

reinforcing the central banks argument for increasingly aggressive interest rate cuts.

The benchmark IPCA consumer price index rose 0.45 percent in February, government

statistics agency IBGE said on Friday, in line with forecasts. Inflation was the tamest forFebruary since 2007, when consumer prices rose 0.44 percent.

Brazils central bank surprised economists on Wednesday by slashing its key rate by 75

basis points to 9.75 percent, after four straight 50-basis-point cuts since August.

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selic rate | Permalink

Posted by Brazil Institute

Brazil analysts increase 2013 inflation forecast to

highest on record

February 27, 2012

Raymond Colitt Bloomberg, 02/27/2012

Economists covering Brazil increased their 2013 inflation forecast to the highest on recordafter the central bank reiterated it would continue cutting its benchmark lending rate.

Brazils consumer prices will rise 5.11 percent next year, according to the median forecast

in a Feb. 24 central bank survey of about 100 economists published today, up from the

previous weeks estimate of 5.02.

Policy makers have cut Brazils benchmark rate 200 basis points since August to 10.5

percent to protect Latin Americas biggest economy from Europes debt crisis and signaled

that they will probably lower the rate to a single digit in the near future. Central bank

President Alexandre Tombini reiterated on Feb. 26 that the bank will continue to lowerborrowing costs further.
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2/10

ReBrazils three-speed economy

January 27, 2012

Joe Leahy Financial Times, 01/27/2012

Brazils economy is at another of those multi-speed moments that it is becoming known

for.

Readers will recall that in 2010, the last year in office of President Luiz Incio Lula da

Silva, economists complained that Brazil had one foot on the brake and one on theaccelerator. The foot on the brake was interest rates as the central bank ramped them up to

try to keep inflation under control while the accelerator was, of course, fiscal spending as

the outgoing president kept the budgetary pedal to the metal as his anointed successor,Dilma Rousseff, contested an election that year.

Now Brazil is in the strange position of having record low unemployment 4.7 per cent inDecember compared with 5.2 per cent in November, even as its economy crawled along at

near zero rates of growth in the third and fourth quarters.

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Unemployment | Permalink


Brazils central bank sees Selic rate falling tosingle digit

January 26, 2012

Matthew Bristow and Raymond Colitt Bloomberg, 01/26/2012

Brazils central bank said it sees a high chance of the benchmark Selic rate falling to a

single digit, after cutting the rate last week for a fourth straight time to 10.5 percent.

The banks board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, said it sees significant structuralchanges in Brazils economy that will allow for lower interest rates, according to theminutes from its Jan. 17-18 meeting published today. The monetary policy committee,

known as Copom, also cited a budget surplus before interest payments that will allow the

ratio of public debt to gross domestic product to fall and slow the pace of credit marketexpansion for their decision.
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3/10

Considering that the deceleration of the Brazilian economy in the second half of last year

was bigger than expected and that recent events indicate a final solution for the European

crisis will be delayed, at this moment, the Copom sees a high probability for to therealization of an outlook in which the Selic rate moves toward a one digit level, the

minutes said.

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Brazil 2012 inflation views fall to 3-month low

December 28, 2011

Brad Haynes, Guillermo Parra-Bernal and Asher Levine - Reuters, 12/26/2011

The Botafogo neighborhood is seen with the famous Sugar Loaf Mountain in thebackground in Rio de Janeiro February 24, 2011. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes

Economists trimmed forecasts for inflation in Brazil next year to the lowest level in more

than three months, a central bank weekly survey showed on Monday, as a deteriorating

global economy helps ease price pressures.
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4/10

Forecasts for Brazils benchmark inflation rate in 2012 fell to 5.33 percent from 5.39

percent previously, down for the fourth week in a row, according to the central banks

Focus survey for the week ending December 23. The central bank expects inflation at 4.7percent next year.

The outlook for economic growth this year fell to 2.90 percent in the survey, from 2.92percent previously, the fifth straight weekly reduction. Weaker growth due to tumbling

industrial output and faltering retail sales led the central bank to cut its benchmark Seliclending rate last month for the third straight meeting, to 11 percent.

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growth,Brazil 2012 inflation,brazil central bank,Brazil selic rate| PermalinkPosted by Brazil Institute

Brazil has the highest real interest rate among 40

leading economies

December 1, 2011

Consumer loan rates in Brazil are also among the highest in the world

Mercopress, 12/01/2011

The Brazilian Central bank latest decision to lower the basic interest rate by half a

percentage point to 11%, confirms Brazil leadership as the country with the highest real

interest rates in the world. An honour it has held interruptedly for the last 23 months.
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5/10

Brazil took first place in January 2010 when it jumped from its traditional long established

second ranking, according to a paper from Cruzeiro do Sul Corretora international analyst

Jason Vieira, who ranks real interest rates for the forty major economies of the world.

With the latest decision, Brazils real interest rate leads with 5.1% annually, followed by

Hungary with 2.5%. The basic real rate is obtained by subtracting from the nominal rate theexpected inflation for the next twelve months.

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Brazil signals rate reductions to continue after cutting

to 11%

December 1, 2011

Matthew Bristow and Andre Soliani Businessweek, 12/01/2011

Brazils central bank signaled it will keep cutting interest rates at its current half-point pace

as it tries to prevent Europes spreading debt crisis from stunting growth in LatinAmericas biggest economy.

The banks board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, yesterday voted unanimously toreduce the benchmark rate 50 basis points for a third straight meeting, to 11 percent,matching the forecast by 64 of 65 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Policy makers, in a statement identical to the one from their previous meeting, said that

moderate rate cuts can mitigate the effects of the worsening global economy without

putting at risk its 2012 inflation target. Tombinis commitment to the current pace of ratecuts may lead traders to pare bets on bigger reductions to come, said Jankiel Santos, chief

economist at Espirito Santo Investment Bank.

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6/10

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-in-brasilia-to-decide-whether-to-add-city-to-world-heritage-in-danger-list/http://brazilportal.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/clinton-to-visit-brazil-after-americas-summit/http://brazilportal.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/fifa-corruption-intrigue-deepens-as-brazils-ricardo-teixeira-resigns/http://brazilportal.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/brazil-evangelicals-pressure-congress-for-a-ruling-on-how-psychologists-deal-with-gays/http://brazilportal.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/brazil-evangelicals-pressure-congress-for-a-ruling-on-how-psychologists-deal-with-gays/http://oglobo.globo.com/pais/nOblat/http://www.brazilcouncil.org/displayMultiple.asp?keyword=linkshttp://blog.frontierstrategygroup.com/http://www.southcom.mil/AppsSC/Blog.phphttp://blogs.estadao.com.br/jpkupfer/http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/http://mundorama.net/http://newsecuritybeat.blogspot.com/search/label/Brazilhttp://www.pralmeida.org/http://www.brasil.gov.br/http://interessenacional.com/http://www.schwartzman.org.br/sitesimon/?lang=en-us


7/10

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8/10

Brazils central bank previously cut the rate by50 basis points in

November,OctoberandSeptember, after raising the Selic rateby 25 basis points to

12.50% at the June Copom meeting last year, which at the time amounted to totaltightening for the year of 175 basis points. Brazil reported an annual inflation rate of 6.5%

in December, compared to 7.31% in September, 7.23% in August, 6.87% in July, 6.71% in

June, and 6.55% in May, and just outside the official inflation target of 4.50% +/-2% (2.5-6.5%).

The BRIC emerging market economy grew 0.0% q/q in the September quarter (0.7% in

June, 0.8% in March), placing annual growth at 2.1% (3.1% in Q2, and 4.2% in Q1). The

Brazilian Real (BRL) has weakened about 7% against the US dollar over the past year,while the USDBRL exchange rate last traded around 1.77

Monetary Policy Week in Review - 22 Oct 2011 0 comments

Oct 21, 2011 10:03 PM | about stocks: TF,NORW,BZF,EPHE, TUR,CUD,INR,

AUNZ,JYN, FXS,COLX,FXRU

The past week in monetary policy saw interest rate decisions announced by 7

central banks. The only bank to announce a change to its main monetary policy

interest rate was the Banco Central do Brasil, which cut its interest rate by another

50 basis points to 11.50%. Meanwhile the other central banks held their keyinterest rates unchanged: Botswana 9.50%, Norway 2.25%, Thailand 3.50%, Ghana

12.50%, Philippines 4.50%, and Turkey 5.75%. A common theme mentioned by

the central bankers was concern over signs of slowing global growth and thepotential risks arising from the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

Some of the key quotes and soundbites from central bankers announcing monetary

policy decisions during the past week are included below:

o Banco Central do Brasil (cut rate -50bps to 11.50%): "Continuing the

process of adjusting monetary conditions, the Committee decided
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9/10

unanimously to reduce the Selic rate to 11.50% pa, without bias. The

Monetary Policy Committee believes that the timely mitigate the effects

coming from a more restrictive global environment, a moderate adjustmentin the level of the base rate is consistent with the scenario of convergence of

inflation to the target in 2012."

o

Bank of Thailand (held rate at 3.50%): "The MPC deemed that the currentlevel of the policy rate is appropriate in addressing upcoming inflationary

pressure and supporting economic adjustments amidst heightened

uncertainty in the global economy. Meanwhile, with the floods not yet over,their impact on the economy was not fully evident."

o Central Bank of Turkey (held rate at 5.75%): "Recent data releases suggest

that there will be a notable reduction in economic growth in the second halfof the year. External demand remains weak, and domestic demand

continues to slow down. The deceleration in credit growth and domestic

demand combined with the exchange rate movements have been

contributing to the rebalancing of domestic and external demand.

Accordingly, the Committee expects a significant improvement in thecurrent account balance in the forthcoming period."

o Norges Bank(held rate at 2.25%): "The Executive Board is of the view that

the outlook and the balance of risks now suggest that the key policy rate

should be kept at the current level for some time ahead. If the economic

unrest abroad intensifies, money market premiums remain high and theoutlook for growth and inflation weakens further, the key rate may

be reduced. If financial market turbulence subsides and there are prospects

of higher growth and inflation, the key rate may rise."

o Bank of Botswana (held rate at 9.50%): "While short-term price

developments have resulted in inflation remaining above the objective range

of 3 - 6 percent, the medium-term outlook for consumer prices is moreencouraging. As a result, the Committee judged that maintaining the Bank

Rate at the current level is consistent with inflation converging on the

objective range in the medium term."

o Bank of Ghana (held rate at 12.50%): "Looking ahead, wage pressures,

payment arrears and recent depreciation of the exchange rate have increased

the upside risks to inflation. In the short-term, the impact of these

underlying inflationary pressures on the economy remains contained. TheBank's inflation forecasts show that the end year target will be achieved.

Movements in the exchange rate remain consistent with the delivery of the

Bank's inflation target."

Looking at thecentral bank calendar, next week will be reasonably busy inmonetary policy with 9 central banks scheduled to review monetary policy settings.

Also on the radar is the ECB's bank lending survey, due out on Wednesday (and of

course the EU leaders are meeting this weekend to try and agree on a plan to stemcontagion from the sovereign debt crisis). The key announcements to watch will be

Canada, India, Japan, and Russia.
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10/10

Documents

Brazil Inflation Eases in Feb