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Paper to be presented at the DRUID Summer Conference 2004 on
INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS, INNOVATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Elsinore, Denmark, June 14-16, 2004
BRAVE OLD WORD:
ACCOUNTING FOR “HIGH TECH” KNOWLEDGE IN “LOW-TECH” INDUSTRIES
Sandro Mendonça
Dinâmia and ISCTE University
[email protected] Nick von Tunzelmann
SPRU, University of Sussex [email protected]
May 28, 2004
JEL classification: C81; L20; O31 Keywords: innovation; patents; technological diversification; traditional industries.
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
1
Brave old word: Accounting for “high tech” knowledge in “low-tech” industries
Sandro Mendonça
Dinâmia and ISCTE University [email protected]
Nick von Tunzelmann
SPRU, University of Sussex [email protected]
Version 1.0
THIS IS A (VERY) PRELIMINARY VERSION. UNRIVISED. PLEASE DO NOT CITE.
ALL COMMENTS WELLCOME.
JEL classification: C81; L20; O31 Keywords: innovation; patents; technological diversification; traditional industries.
1. Introduction
Innovation and the investment in new technologies are not necessarily strange to large
established companies specialised in traditional businesses. “Low-tech” industries
remain, however, a rather unprivileged research topic in the economics of technical
change notwithstanding the demand of analysis and practical insights by managers and
policy-makers. This paper appreciates “old economy” corporations as evolving bundles
of heterogeneous technologies and assesses the dynamics of technological
diversification in traditional industries towards new disruptive technologies such as
information and communication technologies (ICT) and biotechnology.
The phenomenon of technological diversification emerged as a major feature of
corporate capitalism in the late twentieth century. It has been shown in a seminal
contribution by Teece et al. (1994) that firms exhibit a significant degree of coherence
in their productive activities. However, corporate coherence at the technology portfolio
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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level is much less pronounced that at the product level. Indeed, while product
diversification came to be favoured by corporate boards during the 1960s and 1970s it
later on fell out of fashion being surpassed by technological diversification. Product and
technology diversification became two negatively related phenomena in the 1980s and
1990s. Granstrand and Sjölander (1990, p.36) first defined the “multi-technology
corporation” (MTC) as a “corporation that operates in at least three different
technologies”. Scholars that today speak of the MTC have provided evidence from large
data sets and company case studies to show that dispersion of corporate capabilities
across wide and heterogeneous bodies of knowledge constitutes a key characteristic of
the large innovating firm (Cantwell et al., 1994). Thus, manufacturing corporations
came to manage a more diverse of technologies than lines of business (Brusoni et al.,
2001). The activity of technological exploration of a multiplicity of different cognitive
fields tends to be done incrementally and in a path-dependent way, as a consequence of
bounded rationality and industry-specific trajectories of knowledge accumulation
(Antonelli, 2000; Patel and Pavitt, 1997; Brechi, Lissoni and Malerba, 2004). At least
for some large electronic and chemical firms, the development of new technological
capabilities in scientific fields (ICT and biotechnology, respectively) in the
neighbourhood of the ones is correlated with good performance when disciplined with a
greater business focus (Gambardella and Torrisi, 1998; Suzuki and Kodama, 2004).
The question that occupies this paper is the degree to which less-high-tech industries
embarked in this general trend, i.e., we want to assess and attempt to explain their
degree of technological incoherence. More precisely, this paper explicitly considers the
extent, direction and rate of technological diversification of large firms operating in a
variety of sectors and seeks to offer an empirical-based account of the position occupied
by the more “low-tech” sectors within this complex and evolving phenomenon. The
research into long established companies belonging to “old economy” sectors will be
critical to test the nature of the overall process of technological diversification that
characterises the development of corporate global players. A key motivation for this
work is to partially fill the gap in the technological diversification literature concerning
the ways in which traditional industries have reflected the general tendency towards the
accumulation of multi-technology capabilities. We find that the dynamics of
diversification has not been a simple process of slow localised learning into
neighbouring technological fields. We find that the trajectory of evolution of large
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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corporations has been attracted by the new generic technologies of ICT and
biotechnology, depending of their principal product category, with new materials
technology behaving as a backdrop technology.
This paper proceeds in section 2 by presenting the data and the approach adopted to
make sense of the empirical information. Section 3 constitutes the empirical part of this
paper. In this section we cluster industries into different groups in terms of
technological profiles in the beginning of the 1980s, i.e., the configuration of different
technologies and their relative importance in the industries’ patent portfolios. Our
research then proceeds to track the movement towards new generic technologies (ICT,
biotechnology and new materials) by these clusters of similar industries. We find that
traditional industries accompanied the movement towards of technological
diversification exhibited by high-tech sectors. However, traditional industries do not
behave all a like. For example, industries such as Food and Drink & Tobacco also have
to combine a wide number of technologies spanning their classic competencies in order
to develop their products. The direction of technological diversification is quite
heterogeneous: the Metals industry being attracted by ICT and the Food, Drink &
Tobacco by drugs and biotechnology even if these industries do not specialise in the
semiconductors or the pharmaceuticals markets. It is generally acknowledged that
twentieth century corporate life cannot be understood without considering economies of
scale and scope in large multi-product firms (Chandler, 1990). In section 4 of this paper
we conclude that economists and managers will increasingly need to pay attention to the
causes and dynamics of technological incoherence in order to predict and favour the
development of twenty-first century innovating business organisations. This is no less
true in the case of “lower-tech” industries. This section also raises final comments
emphasising policy implications and questions that remain under-researched.
2. Data and methodology
2.1 The data
This paper uses the SPRU database, a privileged empirical material for the purposes at
stake. The data-set contains all patents obtained by the 463 world’s largest companies at
the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) from 1980 to 1996. More specifically,
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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the population is made up of the largest US, European and Japanese companies as
ranked by sales revenues according to the Disclosure Global WorldScope database.
Each company was consolidated so that on the whole the database integrates about 4500
subsidiaries and divisions appearing with different assignee names that were owned by
the parent company as of 1992. Companies are classified according to principal product
group and patents come already assigned to 15 industries. Thus, we cannot perform
intra-industry analysis or analyse the profiles of individual companies. Each individual
patent is assigned to one of 34 individual technological fields based on information
provided by USPTO (see Table 1). The database contains a total of 274 904 patents
accumulated for 15 industries for three sub-periods: 1980-85, 1986-90, and 1991-96. As
we shall see this temporal window of 17 years constituted was a period of transition.
Table 1. The SPRU patent classes 1. Inorganic Chemicals 2. Organic Chemicals 3. Agricultural Chemicals 4. Chemical Processes 5. Hydrocarbons, mineral oils, fuels and igniting devices 6. Bleaching Dyeing and Disinfecting 7. Drugs and Bioengineering 8. Plastic and rubber products 9. Materials (including glass and ceramics) 10. Food and Tobacco (processes and products) 11. Metallurgical and Metal Treatment processes 12. Apparatus for chemicals, food, glass, etc. 13. General Non-electrical Industrial Equipment 14. General Electrical Industrial Apparatus 15. Non-electrical specialised industrial equipment 16. Metallurgical and metal working equipment 17. Assembling and material handling apparatus
18. Induced Nuclear Reactions: systems and elements 19. Power Plants 20. Road vehicles and engines 21. Other transport equipment (excluding aircraft) 22. Aircraft 23. Mining and wells machinery and processes 24. Telecommunications 25. Semiconductors 26. Electrical devices and systems 27. Calculators, computers, and other office equipment 28. Image and sound equipment 29. Photography and photocopy 30. Instruments and controls 31. Miscellaneous metal products 32. Textile, clothing, leather, wood products 33. Dentistry and Surgery 34. Other - (Ammunitions and weapons, etc.)
2.2 Patent as a proxy of technical competence
Along with a large number of authors we will take technology to mean a collection of
engineering knowledge more or less based in scientific disciplinary principles and
learning by doing. As it is difficult to measure corporate knowledge structures directly
we will use patents as an indicator of firm’s expertise in certain technological fields.
Since this intellectual property right is awarded following standards of newness,
originality and industrial applicability it can be assumed that patents indicate that
corporate in-house capabilities are at, or close to, the technological frontier at that field.
This approach will lead us to scrutinise the paths of diversification of knowledge
resources pursued by large established companies operating in given industries.
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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This methodological avenue imposed by the nature of our database cannot be asserted
with qualification. The weaknesses of patents as indicators of technological activity are
well known and will not be discussed in detail here although much can be learnt from
many contributions on the subject (Grilliches, 1990; Pavitt, 1988). Patents are an
institutional record of invention and, unfortunately, cannot be assumed to be in direct
and continuous correspondence to innovative efforts. There are, for instance, different
inter-firm propensities to patent across technologies and across industries and these can
change with time (Sherer, 1981). Recent research has, however, reinforce our belief that
patent statistics are a reliable resource for the objectives of the present study. Namely,
Cohen, Nelson, Walsh (2000) in a survey questionnaire administered to 1478 R&D labs
have found that patents have become a more central protection mechanism for large US
manufacturing companies in the 1990s.
2.3 Data analysis
The main objective of the data analysis will be to understand how and why industries
and patent classes correlate among themselves. Given that we have 34 patent classes it
will be easier to compare the XX industries by using a few composite indexes. With this
purposes in mind we will use a multivariate approach that captures latent technological
dimensions for the different sectors. Multidimensional scalling (MDS) is a multivariate
method that deals with a reasonably large number of observations (patents) made on
each object (industry) simultaneously. MDS addresses the problem of variable
interdependence by positioning objects in a space. With MDS, our main goal will be to
group industries according to the structure and evolution of their technological
portfolios. One important point is that the approach will allow the analysis of the
relationships among different patent classes within each sector under analysis. In this
way we will be able to identify one or more technological dimensions that differentiate
industries and compare industries’ position with respect to these dimensions. The output
of MDS analysis is the location of the industries on the dimension(s) and will be termed
a technological map for the purposes of this paper. Distances between objects represent
technological dissimilarities. In synthesis, the MDS is an exploratory technique that
structuring data in such a way that new information about objects is created.
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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In order surpass some of the limitation of the database and to gain extra leverage in data
analysis in our analysis we proceed to do two further reorganisations of the data. In
what concerns technologies, we re-categorise the 34 patent classes into 9 technology
families (see table 2). This aggregation procedure follows technological similarity
criteria allows us to build separate data-sets providing complementary information. The
new technological families are constructed to represent families of associated
technologies. The U.S. patent classification system clusters patents according to
function, effect and end product. However, there are grounds to believe, following
Narin and Olivastro (1988), that it is possible to construct reasonable (re-)classifications
according to criteria of technological similarity. For instance, under the ICT label we
regroup technological areas that have been strongly influenced by the advent of the
microchip in 1972 and incorporate a strong digital element. The main advantage of this
re-classification exercise is to provide new empirical patterns and understand more
profoundly the results emerging form the raw patent data.
Table 2. Technology families
Chemicals Fine Chem Drugs & Biotech Materials Mechanical Transport ICT Instruments & Electrical
Other
InOrChem OrgCh Drugs and bioeng Materials NonElMach VehiEngi Telecoms Instruments Medical
AgrCh ChePro SpecMach OthTran Semicond Photog&C MiscMetProdHydroc MetalWEq Aircraft Computers ElectrDevi Metallu Pro Bleach AssHandApp Image&Sou ElEqup Nuclear Plastic Mining PowerP
ChemApp Food&T TextWoodetc Other
As for industries we assort the 15 industries originally identified in the database into the
four OECD technology-intensive sectors: High-technology, Medium-High-technology,
Medium-Low-technology and Low-technology industries, henceforth H-tech, MH-tech,
ML-tech and L-tech, respectively (see appendix 1). The OECD uses the business
expenditures on research and development (known as BERD) over production to
classify industries into the four-tier typology as in table 3. A high R&D intensity for an
industry, the ratio of research and development expenditures to production or value
added, is often believed to indicate commitment to knowledge creation in new
technologies. On the other hand lower-tech are held to identify traditional activities. The
R&D intensive criterion, however, has many pitfalls as a technological indicator (Smith,
2004). Here we will take this conventional classification of sectors because it is
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
7
generally known among academics, popular among government policy making and,
finally, because it is a goal of the current research to assess whether there a clear link
between “lower tech industries” (or “old economy sectors”) and old (or traditional)
technologies.
Table 3. OECD technology-intensive sector classification
High-tech sector (#4)
Medium-High-tech sector (#4)
Medium-Low-tech sector (#4)
Low-tech sector (#3)
Aerospace Electrical/Electronics Mining & Petroleum Paper Pharmaceuticals Motor Vehicles and parts Rubber & Plastics Food, Computers Chemicals Materials Drink & Tobacco Photography and photocopy
Machinery Metals
In a nutshell, our goal is to do appreciative economic analysis with the help of concepts,
indicator and classification schemes presented above.
3. The nurture of diversified technical knowledge
3.1 Contemporary corporations as technological melting pots
Technological diversification refers to the range of technical knowledge of collection of
firms in an industry in terms of patent classes in a specific time period. From period to
period the degree of breath or spread of technological capabilities of a group of firm
may increase or decrease, disperse or concentrate in given technical fields as defined by
patent classes. In a recent restatement of the issue, Cantwell and others (2004) observe
that MTCs is a persistent empirical regularity of innovating organisations since the first
industrial revolution, moreover they even precede the rise of multi-national
corporations.
The corporate technology mix constitutes, therefore, the basic research focus of this
paper. Recent research on the organisation of technical change at the corporate level has
consistently is a persistent phenomenon in a wide variety of industries. However, what
this trend meant to traditional industries remains largely unexplored in the literature. In
this paper we will be especially concerned with evidence of technological incoherence
stemming from lower-tech sectors. Are lower-tech sectors a technologically passive set
of industries or are they increasingly changing their technological portfolios to
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
8
encompass the new technologies of the third industrial revolution? When the breath of
technical knowledge of a company specialised in a traditional productive activity spans
over the core technologies that defined the industry, then the technological
diversification trend can be characterised as a major source of change in the
contemporary corporate world.
3.2 How different are technologically diversified industries?
Technological competencies are path-dependent as they accumulate long technological
trajectories that draw on scientific knowledge and learning arising from manufacturing
experience. The implication is that the structure of technological portfolios,
operationalised here as the distribution of patent by technological field, that constitutes
an industry’s knowledge base is rather stable and substantially different accross
different sectors (Patel and Pavitt, 1997).
This stylised fact is evident from figure 1. The MDS analysis combined industries
technological attributes into two dimensions for the three periods1. Figure 1. Technological map of the 15 industries
1 ASCALL algorithm based on individual differences (weighted) Euclidean distance model. Control parameters are rather satisfactory: Stress = 25.9%, RSQ =69.6% Best practice suggests that to be a slightly poor fit (Johnson and Wichern, 2002, p. 701). Overall importance of each dimension: (horizontal) 0.4837, (vertical) 0.2126.
Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
-
0
1
2
aerospacechemicals
computer
drink &
electrical
foo
machinery
materials
metal
petroleum
Motor vehicles pape
pharmaceuticals
photography
rubbe
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
9
The interpretation of the resulting dimensions is not always easy and is a task that takes
place outside the MDS technique. Additional information must be introduced to
facilitate the extraction of meaning from the dimensions and understand why objects are
located in their relative positions. The MDS output positions industries according to the
similarity of their technological portfolios, i.e., breath and depth of their patenting
performance: the first quadrant concentrates industries in which fine chemistry and bio-
chemistry plays an important role; the second quadrant shows industries more
dependent of petro-chemical and bulk chemistry; in the third quadrant one can see
industries in which the core technological capabilities were in mechanical technology;
finally, in the fourth quadrant are locate industries active in electronics and digital
technologies.
Across time the industries relative locations in the technological map are relatively
stable. Technological profiles tend to be industry-specific. The only clear change
happens with the Paper industry, which leaves the third quadrant and moves to the
second quadrant. Thus, it still makes sense to talk about different industries.
Figure 2 shows the similar analysis, a summary of the three periods made on the basis
of the aggregation of all technologies for the four OECD technology-intensive sectors.2
The position of objects on the horizontal axis indicates a “new economy”-“old
economy” dimension. What the vertical axis represents is less obvious. The vertical
dimension shows, nonetheless, that High-tech and Low-tech industries are somehow
similar. In fact, one who adheres to the conventional view would expect that High-tech
and Low-tech sectors should oppose each other, but that does not happen. Instead, the
Low-tech sector appears to oppose the Medium-Low-tech sector. Why?
2 ASCALL algorithm based on individual differences (weighted) Euclidean distance model. Control parameters are rather satisfactory: Stress = 9.9%, RSQ = 0.97287. Best practice suggests that to be a good fit (Johnson and Wichern, 2002, p. 701). Overall importance of each dimension: (horizontal) 0.4983, (vertical) 0.4745.
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
10
Figure 2. Technological map of the four OECD technology-intensive sectors
Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
3.3. How distinctive are traditional industries in terms of technological diversification?
That the distances between sectors exists and is persistent across time, does not mean
however that sector are not affected by changes in their patenting structures. Figure 3
and figure 4 show a one-dimensional MDS computation for the four OECD sectors in
which the used variables are the new technologies of ICT, Drugs & Biotech and new
Materials. The MDS outputs show reliable adjustment parameters (1981-85: Stress =
18.2%, RSQ = 87,6%; 1991-96: Stress = 33,2%, RSQ = 83,8%) and give a clear notion
of change taking place behind the scenes.
The Low-tech sector distanced itself from the Medium-Low-tech sector. Moreover, the
Low-tech sector surpassed the Medium-High-tech sector in terms of patenting in new
technologies having get very close to the High-tech sector in the last period of our data-
set. Low-tech sectors are increasingly taking aboard and adding to emerging
technologies, those developing fields in science and engineering such as ICT,
biotechnologies, new materials, etc. The observed trend is indicative that “new
economy” technologies are increasingly impacting on the knowledge bases of the large
established companies of the “old economy”.
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
-1
0
1
2
H-tech
MH-tech
ML-tech
L-tech
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
11
Figure 3. One-dimensional technological map of the four OECD technology-intensive sectors, 1981-85 (composite variable: new technologies)
Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
Figure 4. One-dimensional technological map of the four OECD technology-intensive sectors, 1991-96 (composite variable: new technologies)
Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-1
0
1
2
HTec
MHTec
MLTec
LTec
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.
-1
0
1
2
HTec
MHTec
MLTec
LTec
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
12
The once unproblematic connection between emerging technological fields and high-
tech or “new economy” sectors is appears to be increasingly under strain. What we learn
is that a realistic perspective on innovation has to include a more complex relationship
between “technologies” and “industries”.
One way to assess the nature of the transformation taking place among the so-called
Low-tech industries is to employ a measure of technological diversification. For that we
will use the Hirshmann-Herfindhal index (HHI), a measure that is obtained by
calculating the sum of the squares of the shares of all the technologies for each sector. A
lower HHI indicates that companies or industries are spreading their patents across a
broader set of fields or, in other words, it reveals that the agents command cutting-edge
knowledge in more technologies. A higher HHI shows a concentration of the
technological portfolio in fewer science and engineering fields. By calculating the HHI
of the OECD sectors on the basis of the nine technology families we find that, indeed,
the Low-tech sector has been consistently opening up its knowledge base during the 16
years of the period under analysis. For this sector the HHI decreased systematically for
the whole period while the Medium-Low-tech sector started by exhibiting a pattern of
concentration and to reverse the trend in the early nineties. Overall, the lower-tech
sectors countered the generalised tendency for technological coherence lead by the
High-tech sectors as they concentrated in the newly developing technologies.
Table 4. Evolution of technological concentration IHH (81-85) (86-90) (86-90) (91-96)
H-tech + + MH-tech + + ML-tech + - L-tech - -
Al sectors + + Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
3.4. What is causing technological incoherence among “lower-tech” industries?
The High-tech sector leads the process of patent growth during the eighties and early
nineties as can be observed in figures 5, 6 and 8.3 Within this set of industries it is the
rise in ICT patents more than any other technology that represents the most dramatic
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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change: H-tech sectors are increasingly active in ICT. The MH-tech industries show a
more distributed patenting growth process, but, nevertheless, also ICT-driven.
In terms of the lower-tech sectors the performance of the ML-tech sectors is the most
dismaying. For instance, comparing 1981-85 to 1991-96 the L-tech sectors experienced
a growth in patents twice as high. The patenting performance of the L-tech sector was
indeed quite robust, and up the pace of the MH-tech sector. While the ML-tech sector
accompanied the higher-tech sectors in developing ICT capabilities, the behaviour of
the companies belonging to the L-tech sector was quite different. The L-tech sector was
consistent in developing capabilities in Fine Chemicals throughout the period, while in
the eighties new Materials constituted the key priority and in the transition to the
nineties knowledge in Drugs & Biotech rose fast in importance followed by ICT. Table 5. Variation rates in patenting from the sub-period 1981-85 to 1985-90
Var. rates (81-85) (85-90) H-tech MH-tech ML-tech L-tech Grand Total Chemicals 19% 6% -12% 27% 1% Fine Chemicals -8% 7% -1% 29% 3% Drugs & Biotech 26% 38% 21% 17% 30% Materials 92% 46% 15% 104% 47% Mechanical 15% 27% 9% 28% 22% Transport 3% 22% 6% 60% 20% ICT 82% 63% 51% -12% 69% Inst. & Elect. 36% 33% 10% 67% 32% Other 46% 45% 22% 23% 39% 40% 32% 5% 31% 30%
Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
Table 6. Variation rates in patenting from the sub-period 1985-90 to 1990-96
Var. rates (85-90) (91-96) H-tech MH-tech ML-tech L-tech Grand Total Chemicals 49% 22% 7% 19% 20% Fine Chemicals 48% 41% 25% 49% 39% Drugs & Biotech 50% 40% 32% 129% 47% Materials 46% 49% 10% 18% 37% Mechanical 44% 14% -7% 20% 15% Transport 39% 19% 8% -13% 20% ICT 99% 54% 50% 40% 70% Inst. & Elect. 58% 22% 3% -10% 32% Other 55% 16% -5% 18% 21% 68% 32% 10% 28% 39%
Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
3 Figures in bold emphasise technological fields in which growth was above average forma giver sector.
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
14
In conclusion, ICT, Drugs & Biotech were the most dynamic fields in the years leading
to the twenty-first century, and the L-tech industries was not disconnected from this
shift in technical knowledge. The overall patenting performance by the L-tech sector
has been clearly above the ML-tech sectors and very close to the MH-tech sector. Large
firms in L-tech industries are becoming “smarter” in Fine Chemicals, Drugs & Biotech
and new Materials, fields in which they contribute to the technological frontier.
Table 7. Variation rates in patenting from the sub-period 1981-85 to 1991-96
Var. rates (81-85) (91-96) H-tech MH-tech ML-tech L-tech Grand Total Chemicals 77% 29% -5% 52% 21% Fine Chemicals 36% 51% 24% 92% 43% Drugs & Biotech 89% 94% 59% 169% 92% Materials 181% 118% 26% 141% 101% Mechanical 66% 45% 2% 53% 40% Transport 43% 45% 15% 40% 44% ICT 262% 150% 126% 23% 187% Inst. & Elect. 116% 62% 14% 51% 75% Other 127% 68% 16% 46% 69% 135% 75% 15% 68% 81%
Source: Elaborations from the SPRU database
4. Discussion of the results
4.1 The dynamics of technological incoherence
Technological evolution within large established manufacturing firms is expected to be
path-dependent and based on a relatively slow accumulation of capabilities in the
vicinity of previously known technological (Patel and Pavitt 1997). The persistence of
stable and industry-specific technological profiles is to be explained by a pattern of
localised search that strongly constrains the directions of knowledge diversification. The
corollary is the predominance of creative accumulation over creative destruction, in the
sense new capabilities do not replace older ones but rather link with existing capabilities
in a complementary and enhancing fashion (Granstrand, 1998; Pavitt, 1998).
Recent research is complicating this picture of smooth and incremental change.
Empirical studies drawing from the Reading University patent database (Fai and von
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
15
Tunzelmann, 2001a) confirm that industry-specific competencies have remained quite
distinct throughout the last century. However, there are increasing signs of convergence
in the direction of growing technologies across industries. In this paper we provide
complementary evidence. First, changes in corporate technological profiles are related
to the advent of new opportunities created by the new emerging technologies. Second,
Lower-tech industries should not be taken has being excluded of this movement or
being dragged by major technological developments taking place outside their typical
domains of expertise, i.e., those fields of knowledge most related to their manufacturing
activity. Low and Medium-Low-tech sectors are increasingly diversifying into the “new
economy” technologies and have been active players in their development.
Lower-tech industries were among the pioneers of the multi-divisional mode of
organising the production and distribution of a continuous flow of branded, package
goods (Chandler, 1990). Indeed, these sectors have a tradition of dynamism. For
instance, companies from food, beverages and tobacco sector constituted 18% and 15%
of total entries in the 200 largest manufacturing firms in 1930 and 1948, respectively
(Louçã and Mendonça, 2002, pg. 834). Innovation in Low-tech industries should,
therefore, not be seen as a contradiction in terms. Possibilities for learning and
renovation exist, especially in the wake the new opportunities emerging with ICT and
biotechnology.
Interpreted in the context of the diffusion of new technological paradigms these findings
suggest that the multi-technology phenomenon might be a piece of a broader (dynamic)
puzzle. The tendency among large companies from all industries to patent in ICT, it was
found that patenting in ICT, biotechnology and new materials technology in non-
specialist sectors clearly intensified after 1980 as compared to other technologies
(Mendonça, 2003). In spite of the stability in the structure of patent portfolios,
something dramatic changed in the large corporation’s knowledge base in the last two
decades of the last century. An implication is that technology diversification can be
related to the concept of industrial revolutions and that the large multi-technology
company is one organisational expression of that phenomenon.
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
16
4.2. The organisation of knowledge and organisational knowledge
Among the contemporary business organisations the main economic activities are
changing from physical processes to information processing. Knowing what should be
known and knowing how to increase and managing knowledge are of the essence for the
survival and success of companies involved in the world markets. The MTC
phenomenon constitutes as aspect in which “Brains dominate hands” as a source of
sustained competitive advantage.
Technological diversification gives a notion of the extent to which companies have
become pressured to develop absorptive capacities and technological sense-making.
Today, technical information cannot be characterised as a scarce resource anymore. On
the contrary, the real challenge is to select and interpret all the data available. This
implies that companies must interpret the emergence new possibilities of invention in
real time, they must create surveillance mechanisms in order to be aware of the
technologies they should absorb, and they must continually network in order to keep in
touch in the customers and partners needs and ambitions. And this means that
sophisticated players (e.g. systems integrators) must develop social capabilities along
with their technological competencies. Part of these social capabilities is the ability to
interact with and coordinate an evolving collection of network partners. Large multi-
technology corporations increasingly emerge as orchestrators of specialised actors that
perform different intellectual task in the vertically disintegrated innovation process
leading to ever more complex products.
As a consolidating economic institution of capitalism it is not yet clear how MTCs
affects the dynamics of industries and the competitiveness of the territories in which
they operate. It is therefore important to realise what are the key challenges posed by
technological diversification to the social technology of governance mechanisms
(Nelson and Sampat, 2000).
5. Conclusions
4.1 Summary of the results
Corporate knowledge systems are evolving and this trend is widespread “new economy”
and “old economy” sectors. Large companies active in Low-tech sectors are
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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increasingly blending new technological capabilities with old ones. The rising
technological incoherence exhibited by Lower-tech industries is related to the increasing
importance of the emerging science and engineering fields of ICT, biotechnology and
smart materials. In terms of patenting in these developing bodies of knowledge, the
Low-tech sector has been show to approximate the High-tech sector and even to
challenge the dynamism of the Medium-High-tech sector. The High-tech/Low-tech
classification scheme, therefore, is increasingly under strain; the life cycle of its
applicability is coming to an end. The interdependence between both the “old” and
“new economy” sectors and new technologies has developed rapidly at the end of the
past century.
4.2 Implications for policy and future research
The substance of corporate technological knowledge matters both for economists and
for managers. There has recently been a revival of interest in how institutions influence
economic performance. We would argue that, the MTC, as new for knowledge
organisation should connect with this debate.
Industrial economists concerned with predicting the way in which large incumbent
corporations interact with competitors, suppliers, universities and knowledge brokers
should monitor the uneven the rate and direction of change of the various components
of their technological portfolios. In particular, economists and business researchers
involved in studying sectoral systems of innovation (Malerba, 2004) and evaluating the
properties of markets for technology (Arora and Fusfuri, 2003) are among those whose
work is more related to the stylised facts emphasised in this paper. Our results show that
technological diversification is a powerful force governing the on-going reorganisation
of innovative capabilities in high-tech as well as lower-tech industries. What large firms
know and the capabilities they will use to create new products and processes will impact
on market circumstances and exert a major influence on the broader networks that
enable innovation in the industry.
If knowledge means power in technological-based relationships the implications of this
to competition policy remains poorly understood. What this developing form of
S. Mendonça and N. von Tunzelmann – Brave Old World – Version 1.0 – 2004
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industrial organisation means constitutes a challenge for competition policy analysis in
the context of dynamic competition (Audretsch et al., 2001).
Noting the relevance of technological diversification for both new and old economy
sectors is also relevant to technology and regional policy as it broadens the framework
economists use to identify factors that support innovation. National policies should not
mistake ‘high technologies’ with ‘high-technology industries’. One implication for
intermediate economies specialised in traditional sectors is that policy-makers should
not isolate lower-tech industries from mainstream science and technology policy. All
lower-tech industries contain some segments or activities which are or can be high-tech
based. Developing the ‘high-tech component’ of lower-tech industries should be more
sustainable than overloading in ‘high-tech industries’ and may thus be a stronger
commitment to using high-tech (and medium-tech) in intermediate and developing
countries.
Business strategy in Lower-tech sectors cannot afford to nurture an innovation
management component. Lower-tech industries must sustain their inventing as well
absorptive capacities at the same time as they development the networking capabilities
needed to manage internal and external divisions of labour. Prudent strategising should
be about retaining market strengths in areas of traditional (static) comparative
advantage, by dynamically deploying high technologies
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Appendix 1 OECD Sectors Average R&D Intensity
High-technology Industries
BERD/Production > 5%
Aircraft and spacecraft Aerospace Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Office, accounting and computing machinery
Computers
Radio, television and communications equipment
Medical, precision and optical instruments
Photography and Photocopy
Medium-high-technology industries
3% < BERD/Production < 5%
Electrical machinery and apparatus
Electrical/Electronics
Motor vehicles and trailers Motor Vehicles and parts Chemicals Chemicals Railroad and transport equpt. n.e.c.
Machinery and equpt n.e.c. Machinery Medium-low-technology industries
0.9% < BERD/Production < 3%
Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel
Mining & Petroleum
Rubber and plastic products
Rubber & Plastics
Other non-metallic mineral products
Materials
Building and repairing of ships and boats
Basic metals Fabricated metals products Metals Low-technology industries
0% < BERD/Production < 0.9%
Manufacturing n.e.c. and recycling
Wood, pulp, paper, paper products, printing and publishing
Paper
Food products, beverages and tobacco
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Textiles, textile products, leather and footwear