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Brad E. Dicianno, MD
Statistics For Residents
University of Pittsburgh Medical CenterDept. of Physical Medicine & RehabilitationVA Pittsburgh Health Care SystemHuman Engineering Research Laboratories
What you never thought you would understand…
Overview:When reading (or writing) a paper, you should
be able to:Classify and describe the data What does ‘nominal’ mean again?
Decide what tests are appropriate How am I supposed to know if I am supposed to
run a T-test?
Understand the significance of the tests It gave me a p value. Am I done now?
Know how data should be reported And be able to catch their mistakes!
Overview:You should then be able to…
Evaluate the utility of the Diagnostic Tests Does a + result mean anything?
Evaluate efficacy of Therapies Did the interventions actually do anything?
Evaluate relevance of Exposures Did those at risk suffer any harm?
Know more than you need to know for boards
Classifying and Describing Data
Step 1:
Classify your Variables
Categorical
Categories, groupsGender, Race, Job, Favorite colorYes/No
Ordinal
Ordered; data goes in specific directionDividing doesn’t make sensePGY1, PGY2, PGY3…Always, Sometimes, Never…
Continuous
Numerical ScaleYou can divide the numbersWeight, Height, Exam Score
Try it out…
FIM scoreArm temperatureMed route (po, NG, IV)Modified Ashworth ScorePlantar responseType of insuranceAlbumin level
Try it out…
FIM score OrdinalArm temperature ContinuousMed route (po, NG, IV) CategoricalModified Ashworth Score OrdinalPlantar response CategoricalType of insurance CategoricalAlbumin level Continuous
Step 2:
Normal or Not Normal?
Normal = Parametric
Not Normal = Non Parametric
SkewnessExcess skewness is NOT normal
NegativelySkewed
Mode
Median
Mean
Symmetric(Not Skewed)
MeanMedianMode
PositivelySkewed
Mode
Median
Mean
Kurtosis
Excess kurtosis is NOT normal
Options for determining normal distributions
Graph the frequencies on y axis and value of variable on x axis
ORRun a program like SPSS Skewness -1 to 1 is normal Kurtosis -1 to 1 is normal
Other descriptives
Mean (average)Median (middle value)Mode (most often occurring)Standard DeviationRanges (low to high)
122333444455555
Step 3:
Decide what you want to do with the data
Looking for associations
Is pain related to medication use?Is gender related to exam scores?Is alcohol use related to albumin levels?
Predicting/Correlations
Does weight go up if height goes up?Does BP go down if exercise level goes up?Does HR increase with prolonged bedrest?
Prediction/Regression
Y=mx + b
Does body fat percentage (x) predict body image satisfaction (y)?Do pain scores (x) predict participation in PT (y)?
Step 4:
Choose the test. Use the handout.
Step 5:
Report the results.
Hypothesis(Null hypothesis)Alpha levelP valueBe careful with reporting “no differences…”Remember, just because you didn’t find a
difference, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Likelihood Ratio (LR) Likelihood of the test result in
patients with a condition compared to the likelihood of test result in those without the condition
Post test Odds (PTO) How likely to have the condition if
testing +
Likelihood Ratio
Condition +
Condition -
Test + A B
Test - C D
LR = A/(A+C) / B/(B+D)PTO = LR * Pretest odds
Example: Pregnancy test
A pregnancy test gives a + result in 75 out of 100 women who are pregnant, and a – result to the other 25.In women who are not pregnant, it tells 50 they are +, and 50 they are -.How likely is a woman to be pregnant if she gets a + result? Assume she is 50% confident she is pregnant.
Fill in the blanks…Condition +
Condition -
Test + A B
Test - C D
LR = A/(A+C) / B/(B+D)PTO = LR * Pretest odds
Likelihood RatioCondition +
Condition -
Test + A75
B50
Test - C25
D50
LR = A/(A+C) / B/(B+D)PTO = LR * Pretest odds
Likelihood RatioCondition +
Condition -
Test + A75
B50
Test - C25
D50
LR = A/(A+C) / B/(B+D) = 75/100 / 50/100 = 1.5PTO = 1.5 * 0.5 = 0.75 = 75%
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Likelihood Ratio Likelihood of the test result in patients with
a condition compared to the likelihood of test result in those without the condition
LR = 1.5 PTO = 75% Positive result is 1.5 times more likely in
pregnant women than non-pregnant With a + test, odds of being pregnant
increase to 75%
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
SensitivityPositive Predictive ValueSpecificityNegative Predictive Value
Example: Evaluating the usefulness of a net designed to catch green fish
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Sensitivity True positives/everyone with
condition you want to pick upTrue -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Sensitivity = ½ = 0.5 True positives/everyone with
condition you want to pick upTrue -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
You caught 1 of the 2 fish you should have caught.
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Positive Predictive Value True positives/all positives
True -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Positive Predictive Value = 1/3 True positives/all positives
True -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
1 of the 3 fish you did catch was of the right kind
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Specificity True negatives/everyone w/o
conditionTrue -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Specificity = 3/5 True negatives/everyone w/o
conditionTrue -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
Your net correctly ignored 3 of the 5 fish it wasn’t supposed to catch.
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Negative Predictive Value True negatives/all negatives
True -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests
Negative Predictive Value = 3/4 True negatives/all negatives
True -
True +False -
False +False +
True -
True -
The net correctly ignored 3 of the 4 fish it didn’t catch.
Evaluating Therapies
Relative Risk (risk ratio) (RR) Ratio of risk in treated group to risk in
control groupRelative Risk Reduction (RRR) % reduction in risk in treated group
compared to controlsAbsolute Risk Reduction (ARR) Diff. in risk between controls and treated
Number needed to treat (NNT) # you have to treat to prevent one adverse
outcome
Treatment Effects
Outcome+
Outcome-
Treated A B
Control C D
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B)
X=C/(C+D)
Treatment Effects
Outcome+
Outcome-
Treated A B
Control C D
RR = Y/X
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B)
X=C/(C+D)
RRR= 1 – RR * 100%ARR = X – YNNT = 1/ARR
Fictional Example: A New HIV vaccine
100 people at high risk of HIV are given HIV vaccine, and 100 people are given nothing. They are followed over time.25 of the people with the vaccine develop HIV.All of the people without the vaccine develop HIV.Should you recommend the vaccine?
Fill in the Boxes…
HIV+ HIV-
New HIV Vaccine
A B
Control C D
RR = Y/X
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B) =
X=C/(C+D) =
RRR= 1 – RR * 100%ARR = X – YNNT = 1/ARR
RR = RRR = ARR = NNT =
Treatment Effects
HIV+ HIV-
New HIV Vaccine
A25
B75
Control C100
D0
RR = Y/X
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B) =
X=C/(C+D) =
RRR= 1 – RR * 100%ARR = X – YNNT = 1/ARR
RR = RRR = ARR = NNT =
Treatment Effects
HIV+ HIV-
New HIV Vaccine
A25
B75
Control C100
D0
RR = Y/X
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B) = 0.25
X=C/(C+D) = 1.00
RRR= 1 – RR * 100%ARR = X – YNNT = 1/ARR
RR = 0.25RRR = 75%ARR = 0.75NNT = 1.33
Evaluating Therapies
Relative Risk (risk ratio) (RR) Ratio of risk in treated group to risk in
control group
0.25
Those without vaccine have 4 times the risk of getting HIV
Evaluating Therapies
Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) % reduction in risk in treated group
compared to controls
75%
Those with vaccine have a 75% reduced risk of getting HIV
Evaluating Therapies
Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) Diff. in risk between controls and
treated
0.75
Those with Vaccine have a risk 0.75 greater than controls.
Evaluating Therapies
Number needed to treat (NNT) # you have to treat to prevent one
adverse outcome
1.33
You need to give the vaccine to at least 2 people to prevent HIV in one person.
Evaluating Exposures
Relative Risk (risk ratio) (RR) Ratio of risk in exposed group to risk
in control group
Odds Ratio How many times more likely someone
is to have been exposed (compared to controls)
Evaluating Exposures
Outcome+
Outcome-
Exposed A B
Control C D
RR = Y/X
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B)
X=C/(C+D)
OR = AD/BC
Fictional Example:
25 out of 100 people on the Atkins diet had heart attacks.10 out of 100 people on regular diets had heart attacks.Would you discourage the Atkins diet?
Fill in the boxes…Outcome+
Outcome-
Exposed A B
Control C D
RR = Y/X
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B)
X=C/(C+D)
OR = AD/BC
Evaluating ExposuresOutcome+
Outcome-
Exposed A25
B75
Control C10
D90
RR = Y/X
Risk in each group
Y=A/(A+B) = 0.25
X=C/(C+D) = 0.10
OR = AD/BC RR = 2.5OR = 3
Evaluating Exposures
Relative Risk (risk ratio) (RR) Ratio of risk in exposed group to risk
in control group
Odds Ratio How many times more likely someone
with a disease is to have been exposed (compared to controls)
Evaluating Exposures
Relative Risk (risk ratio) (RR) Ratio of risk in exposed group to risk
in control group
2.5
Heart attacks occur 2.5 times more often in those on Atkins diet.
Evaluating Exposures
Odds Ratio How many times more likely someone with
a disease is to have been exposed (compared to controls)
3.0
Those having a heart attack were 3 times more likely to have been on the Atkins diet than on a regular diet.
ErrorsNull Hypo TRUE
NullHypo FALSE
Accept H0
1 - alpha
BetaType II Error
Reject H0
alphaType I Error
1- Beta
POWER