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BPA Tier 2 FY2012-2028 Load Forecast
Tier 2 Power Supply/Strategic Planning WorkshopJune 7, 2011
Philip D. LuskPower Resources Manager
Topics
Background City Loads and Resources Future Considerations Automated Metering Infrastructure Demand Response Questions/Comments
With nuclear energy, humanity has “a chance to enter into a new Eden...abolishing disease and poverty, anxiety and fear.”
There would be “better, finer and more nourishing plants, better, cheaper and more abundant fertilizer; better and richer soils, farms, and gardens; better and finer clothing and homes; better men and
women.”
Nuclear plants would pump water and “turn the world's desert's into blooming gardens,” turn swamps and jungles into “vast new lands flowing with milk and honey.”
“Such power plants could, in short, make the dream of the earth as a Promised Land come true in time for many of us already born to see and enjoy it.”
William L. Laurence, “Paradise or Doomsday?” Woman's Home Companion, May 1948, p.33.
Current Loads and Resources
Port Angeles Electric Utility Background Principal load centers
Nippon Paper Industries “Industrial Transmission”
Distribution system Everyone else
Residential Electric Rate Comparison*
* SOURCE: Clallam County PUD #1 April 2011 Newsletter; based on 1500 kWh/month load
Future Loads and Resources
Bonneville Power Administration’s Wholesale Power Bill
Current wholesale power bill has melded rates Cafeteria-style demand and energy consumption
Future wholesale power bill will use BPA’s “Tiered-Rate Methodology” (TRM) Charges significantly more for demand and
energy above BPA-allocated amounts
Port Angeles Electric Utility Forecast Six-factor polynomial regression equation
Past 36 month wholesale power purchases used As an accuracy check, baseline forecast was backcast
against the past 36 month historic loads Overall aMW forecast error was 0.20% Overall kWh forecast error was 0.57%
City of Port Angeles Distribution Utility aMW
y = 0.5289x 6 - 21.207x 5 + 318.76x 4 - 2129.4x 3 + 6111.8x 2 - 9622x + 49022
R 2 = 0.955
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
aKW
Port Angeles Distribution Utility Forecast Distribution forecast used two load growth rates
Baseline (Status Quo) Used historic annual growth rates Higher-priced wholesale power purchases projected to start in
2017 Enhanced Conservation Alternate
Used growth rates equal to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan goals
Higher-priced BPA wholesale power purchases projected to start in 2029, avoided average ~$2.5 million in annual added power costs
Future Considerations
Reduce “Gap” with Conservation Seek all cost-effective conservation as the favored
resource for meeting future loads Least risk and most cost-effective
Continue City support Seek BPA funding to accelerate the energy savings Enhanced conservation scenario could reduce future
distribution utility cumulative wholesale energy costs by ~$75 million by 2030
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats Strengths
Conservation reduced City’s 2010 power purchases by 2.3%, directly saved customers $837,000 and created a net economic benefit of more than $1.94 million
Weaknesses Limited current generation resources on the Peninsula
Opportunities Automated metering infrastructure, enhanced conservation
and new renewable choices within City’s service territory Threats
Strong potential for significant increases in wholesale power costs and decreases in the BPA “Tier 1” power system
Conservation Comment
Why does more conservation only seem to cause electric rates to increase? Prices reveal value and are an important tool in guiding
customer decisions Conservation is the least-cost resource, and as any
resources are acquired, investments increase Conservation-oriented rates are intended to reduce
energy use and encourage users to choose more efficient ways to meet their needs
Rates may rise, but with engaged users, utility bills could remain about the same
Phil LuskPower Resources Manager
Public Works & Utilities [email protected]
360.417.4703http://www.cityofpa.us
