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BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018
bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 3
2040
BP 2040
BPBP
BP 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
2018 BP
BP
40
BP
2040
4
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP
25
BP
BP
( Bob Dudley )
5
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• 204025
•25
•
• 70%
•
6
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• 40% 2040
•
•
•
•
•
7
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
• • • •
•
• •
18 20
24 28 30 32 42 46
• • • • •
17
56 58 60 62 64
23
51
11
8
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
106
•
110 112 114
• • 2040 •
•
•
• •
•
119
103
9
109
70 76 80 84 92 94 98
100
67
120
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
11
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
*
12
* 122
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2040
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
•
•42-45 98-99
84-87106-107
13
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20
14
*
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• 204025
•32-41
•
52-65
• 40%2040 68-101
15
概览
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
17
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
GDP 25
GDP
Conventional
LNG
Russian pipeline
18
% 年均
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1990-2016
2016-2040
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• GDP 3.25% 25
• 2040 17 92
• GDP25 25
• 80%
• GDP10%
19
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
GDP
%
GDP
20
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1990-15 2015-40
Th
ou
san
ds
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• 1.3% 20 2%
• GDPGDP 35%
• 2040 20
• 6
60-61
21
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
• • •
•
•
•
23
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Conventional
LNG
Russian pipeline
24
†
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
*
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1990-2016 2016-2040
† *
%
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
•29% 20%
•
•28-29
•30-31
• 32-33
25
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1985-2000 2000-15 2015-30 2030-40
%
*
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
*
26
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 15
•70%
• 2040
• 2040
27
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
, %
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
*
%
28 *
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 1.9%1.0% 2040
20%
•
•
• 10%
29
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
...
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2016 2040
2016-2040
66% 14%
13%
7%
30
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
...
•
•90%
•
•
•
31
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
32
0
1
2
3
4
5
2016 2040
*
**
0
1
2
3
4
5
2016 2040
* **
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
...
•
• 2040
25%25 80%
•
• GDP
33
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
*
34
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• 2040 85%94% 2040
5%
•42-45
•
•
35
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
...
Conventional
LNG
Russian pipeline
36
* ** NEDC (New European Drive Cycle)
/ **
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
...
• 2040
• 2040 20 3112
113
• PHEV BEV 2040ICE
• 2-3% 152040 2000 70% 2040
100 3 52000 7
37
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
38
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
-
-
-
2 3
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
...
•
•1 2
• 2040 30%15%
20202030
•
• 2040 15%
39
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
2016-2040
/
40
18.7
22.6 18.2
2.5
2.0
18.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2016
2040
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
...
•
•
•36-37
•
•
41
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
42
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
-
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
2040
•
• 2040
2030 20352040
• 2030 20%2040
15% 30%
43
-
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2016 渐进转型 内燃机汽车禁令
44
/
2016 2040
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
...
•
•
•/
2040 2016
•
7%
45
-
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
%
GDP
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
46
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1990-2016 2016-2040
GDP
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 70%
•
•
7% 2040 94-95
• 13% 2540% 2040 30%
• 2520%
47
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
...
2016-2040
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1000
2016 2040
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
201
6
204
0
201
6
204
0
201
6
204
0
201
6
204
0
48
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•2030
• 2040
•
• 2040
49
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
• •
•
•
•
•
51
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
52
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
%
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•
•
112-113
•
53
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
201
6
204
0
201
6
204
0
201
6
204
0
201
6
204
0
201
6
204
0
...
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
2016-2040†
†
54
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•
•
•
•
•
55
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
:
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2030 2030-40
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
%
56
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
• 20
• 1.5% 20
• 20
• 2040 80%
• 2025
57
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% GDP
*
...
GDP
%
1990-2016 2016-2040
58
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•25
• 45% 70%
•
•
59
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
1965-2016 *
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0 5 10 15
(2016-40)
GDP
*包括非燃烧
/
1990-2016 2016-2040
1965
2040 2016
60
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•
•
•1980
•25
61
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
/
62
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
*
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•12% 2040 18%
2040 13% 204024% 14%
•2040 3.6
2016 9% 2040 7.8
• 24%2040 15% 30%
63
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
50
100
150
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
GDP
...
2000 =100
GDP,
GDP
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
64
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 2040 2016 35% GDP
• 2040 1975GDP
•
• 2040 40% 2016 25%25%
65
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 66
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
•
•
•
•
•
67
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Conventional
LNG
Russian pipeline
68
†
0
5
10
15
20
†
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• 7% 40%
• 2040
• 1.6%
• 0.5%
• 21%
69
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2016 2016
2040
70
/
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•1300 / 2040 1 9 /
•
• 1100 / 201620202040 600
/
• 500 /
71
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005- 2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
/ /
SUV
72
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 800 /55% 400 /
300 / 100 / 32-33
•34-35
• 2030
700 / 28-29
73
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
/
74
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
(3% )
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
•NGLs 15
2030 2300 /67-77
•
•
3% 2040 4500 /
75
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
*
/
76
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
• 500 / 2030 1000 /10
40% 2040 700
•2025 1200 /
•50% 2030 1500
/
77
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
/ ,
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1990-2016
2016-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
, 2016-2040
/
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
78
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 79
•
• 1100 / 300 /600 /
300 /
•2030
•
•
500 /
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2016 2040
*
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2016 2040 2016 2040
80
/ /
*
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•
• 204020%
• 40%
2020
81
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
200
400
600
2020 2030 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010
/
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
82
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•
700 / 26-27
• 590 /
46-47
• 210 /30-31
•110 /
2040 5% 34-35
83
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2016-2040
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
2016-2040
%
84
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
•
•
1.1% 1.6%
•
85
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
86
2016-2040
%
1990-2040
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
•98-99
1%
•
•
87
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
88
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
/ /
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
•
• 2040
•
90-91
•
89
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2016 2020 2030 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2016 2020 2030 2040
/
*
/
90
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
• 2040
•
•2016 2040
2040
91
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2020 2030 2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2000 2010
92
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
%
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 25 25
•2040
40%
•
•2016
10% 2040 25%
93
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
...
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000-16 2016-30 2030-40
%
94
(1966-91)
(1985-2010)
(2015-2040)
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 7.5%50%
•2020
98-992040
•
2030
•1970-1980
95
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
BP
2015
BP
2018
...
2035
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800
$2016/
,
2015
2020 2025
2040 2035 2030
*
*
96
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 2035 20152035 150%2020
•
•24%
•
97
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016-2040
2016-2040
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2016-2040
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
98
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•2020
2040
•90% 2040 40%
25%
•106-107
•
99
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
-40
0
40
80
120
1995-2005
2005-2016
2016-2030
2030-2040
-40
0
40
80
120
1995-2005
2005-2016
2016-2030
2030-2040
...
100
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•
• 1.8% 59 5190% 2%
2040 8%
• 1110
• 1.3% 6116
13 11
101
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
103
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2040 CO2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
*
104
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
• 204010%
• 25 55%
•
•2040 50%
•2040
105
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
0
10
20
30
40
106
0
5
10
15
20
2016
2040 :
CO2
2040
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
•25
•
•
• 2040
• 2040 40%
107
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
109
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2035
110
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
• 2035
• 2035 15%
96-97
• 2035
• 5%
•
111
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
2040
*
Crude and condensate NGLs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
*
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
2017
2018
112
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 113
• 2040
•2035
1.9 12035 2040 1.3 2040 3.2
• 2040
2035 20402.5
• 2035 204020%
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
2016-2040
%
114
: 2017 BPIHS
122-123
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•
•
• 0.9% 1.4%1.3%
1.2%
• 25
7%
115
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
2016
116
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2016-2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2040
:
%
BP
2040
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
•1%
2040
• 7%5.5%
• 20402 5
117
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
119
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
%
%
2016 2040 1990-2016
2016-2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
GDP 109 235 63 126 135% 115% 3.3% 3.2%
7.4 9.2 2.1 1.7 40% 23% 1.3% 0.9%
GDP 15 26 6 11 68% 74% 2.0% 2.3%
/ 122 77 -54 -45 -31% -37% -1.4% -1.9%
33.4 36.8 11.8 3.3 55% 10% 1.7% 0.4%
% % %
2016 2040
2016 2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
13276 17983 100% 100% 5134 4707 63% 35% 1.9% 1.3%
4336 4836 33% 27% 1183 500 38% 12% 1.2% 0.5%
3204 4707 24% 26% 1437 1502 81% 47% 2.3% 1.6%
3732 3762 28% 21% 1486 30 66% 1% 2.0% 0.0%
592 912 4% 5% 139 320 31% 54% 1.0% 1.8%
910 1241 7% 7% 423 331 87% 36% 2.4% 1.3%
502 2527 4% 14% 467 2025 1333% 404% 10.8% 7.0%
2662 3398 20% 19% 1194 735 81% 28% 2.3% 1.0%
5965 7843 45% 44% 2222 1877 59% 31% 1.8% 1.1%
809 1277 6% 7% 340 468 73% 58% 2.1% 1.9%
3840 5466 29% 30% 1378 1626 56% 42% 1.7% 1.5%
5584 8814 42% 49% 2614 3231 88% 58% 2.5% 1.9%
120
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
% % %
2016 2040
2016 2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
1990-2016
2016-2040
2789 2914 21% 16% 465 125 20% 4% 0.7% 0.2%
2273 2299 17% 13% 307 26 16% 1% 0.6% 0.0%
705 1085 5% 6% 374 380 113% 54% 2.9% 1.8%
298 477 2% 3% 172 180 136% 60% 3.4% 2.0%
1902 1826 14% 10% 68 -75 4% - 4% 0.1% -0.2%
1642 1460 12% 8% -30 -182 -2% -11% -0.1% -0.5%
966 1020 7% 6% -400 55 -29% 6% -1.3% 0.2%
674 716 5% 4% -191 42 -22% 6% -1.0% 0.3%
895 1382 7% 8% 631 487 239% 54% 4.8% 1.8%
440 1002 3% 6% 218 562 98% 128% 2.7% 3.5%
5580 8754 42% 49% 3779 3174 210% 57% 4.4% 1.9%
3053 4319 23% 24% 2370 1266 347% 41% 5.9% 1.5%
724 1921 5% 11% 529 1197 271% 165% 5.2% 4.2%
912 1671 7% 9% 618 759 210% 83% 4.5% 2.6%
13276 17983 100% 100% 5134 4707 63% 35% 1.9% 1.3%
5581 5583 42% 31% 795 2 17% 0% 0.6% 0.0%
7695 12400 58% 69% 4340 4706 129% 61% 3.2% 2.0%
121
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
• BP • • 38%
• GDP 2010
• • • • •
• • •
• NGLs GTLs CTLs • • •
122
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
2017 2017 7
2050 2017
2017 2017 9
2017 2017 11
2018 2050 2017 10
IHS Markit IHS Markit 2017 7
2040 2017 10
2017 2017 5
2040 2018 2018 2
BP p.l.c. BP 2017 6
2017
2017
2017 2017
123
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BPBP
124
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018
