Boston Urban Hub Report - First Quarter 2016

The Boston Urban HubFirst Quarter 2016

A Comprehensive Analysis ofThe Boston Condominium Market

www.Raveis.com

18 Arlington Street Boston, MA 02116 I 617.266.5200

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The Boston Urban Hub First Quarter 2016

Welcome to the First Quarter 2016 edition of The Boston Urban Hub, Raveis Research’s quarterly review of the condominium market in Boston’s urban core. Our goal is to provide insight on emerging trends by reviewing market

data from closings in First Quarter 2016 and comparing it to closings that occurred in the previous quarter and the same quarter a year ago.

We have defined the Urban Hub as the Boston neighborhoods with the highest concentration of multi-family housing, either built as “for sale” product or luxury rental with the potential for future sale and/or conversion. The neighborhoods include Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Charlestown, Fenway, Midtown, North End, Waterfront/Seaport, South Boston, South End, and West End. We have recently expanded our definition of the Urban Hub, and have included key statistics on the emerging neighborhoods of Dorchester and East Boston.

Condo sales in First Quarter 2016 fell roughly 34% however, it had an 8% increase year over year. The Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown/Midtown, Back Bay, and Seaport/Waterfront neighborhoods led the market with the highest Average Price while South Boston experienced the highest number of sales.

We hope you will find this edition of The Boston Urban Hub informative and useful. Today’s market is in an exciting transition, making it even more important to work with a sales and marketing partner with a proven track record of producing optimal results for its developer clients. We welcome any questions you may have regarding this report and the future of Boston’s condominium market.

Sincerely,

Rachel Marden Director of Research

South Boston experienced the highest number of sales ...

*All information in this report sourced from LINK unless otherwise noted

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First Quarter 2016 Neighborhood Sales Summary

With the increase of new development inventory closings in The Seaport, the neighborhood experienced a 92% increase in number of sales year over year. The Average Price in The Seaport surpassed Back Bay for the highest in the Urban Hub.

... Average Priceper SF increased 11% ...

First Quarter 2016 Urban Hub Sales SummaryWe had a steady First Quarter in the Urban Hub with Average Price increasing 12% year over year. Number of Sales, Median Price, and Average Price per square foot also had a steady increase.

*Dorchester & East Boston Data source MLSpin

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Sales – ClosingsWith 543 closed sales in the Urban Hub, First Quarter 2016 followed the seasonal first quarter trend, however it increased 10% year over year.

Sales – Under Agreement

Sales Under Agreement is derived from the number of condo listings reported as being under agreement during the quarter. A sale usually closes within eight to ten weeks and in many cases closes in the following quarter. With the return of new development sales, in which contracts are signed pre-construction and during construction, closings may occur as much as three years later. However, not all new development sales are reported as under agreement until they close. Sales Under Agreement in First Quarter 2016 followed the seasonal trend of declining quarter over quarter.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

504

1054

1156

870

597

965 923

662

495

890993

827

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

418

1211

482385

331

645

340 339 279

546

329 321

415 1192 476 381 330 638 336 331 274 539 325 313

3 19 6 4 1 7 4 8 5 7 4 8

543

25218763

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

$0-$400,000

$401,000-$800,000

$801,000-$1,200,000

$1,201,000-$1,600,000

$1,601,000-$2,000,000

$2,000,000+

2016

2015

Sales By Price Category Sales of condos by price category were relatively stable year over year with sales in the $401,000 - $800,000 category continuing to represent over half of all sales in the Urban Hub.

... condos by price category were relatively stable year over year ...

1Q 20161Q 201547

33

1924

3625

9475

283213

2159

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Sales Comparison By NeighborhoodThe South Boston and South End neighborhoods continued to lead the Urban Hub with the highest number of condo sales in First Quarter 2016.

Sales Comparison By Square FootageThe 1001-1500 SF range continued to lead the Urban Hub with the highest number of condo sales in First Quarter 2016.

93

25

51

57

24

19

30

25

137

106

32

113

143

170

42

46

22

1Q15 1Q16

1Q15 1Q16

*Dorchester & East Boston Data source MLSpin

54

38

60

42

29

14

36

21

121

97

33

109

131

154

41

37

24

131

26%154

31%

109

22%24

5%

37

7%

418%

143

27%170

32%

113

21%22

4%

46

9%

428%

121

22%

97

18%

21

4%

54

10%

60

42

38

7%

36

7%14

3%

29

5%

33

6%

8%

11%

137

23%

106

17%

25

4%

93

15%

51

57

254%

30

5%

19

3%

24

4%

32__

5%

9%

8%

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Sales Comparison By Number of BedroomsTwo Bedroom condos represented 48% of all condo sales in the Urban Hub in the First Quarter 2016.

6

1Q15 1Q16

25 257

174 75

7 248

169 70

174

25

257

5%

14%

48%

33%

75

169

248

14%

50%

34%

70

7


0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

PriceAverage Price decreased 15% since last quarter but increased 12% year over year. Median price decreased 8% since last quarter but increased 11% year over year.

Historical Sales PriceThe Urban Hub had tremendous growth in Frist Quarter 2016, Median Price increased 21% year over year.

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q160

537,

250

536,

000

525,

000

645,

000

660,

000

600,

000

599,

500

630,

000

630,

000

692,

000

640,

000

762,

500

700,

000

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New Developments

New Development condos were in strong demand in First Quarter 2016 with very brisk pre-sale activity at Sepia at Ink Block, 22 Liberty and Millennium Tower. With the introduction of the ultra-luxury product at Four Seasons Hotel and Four Seasons Private Residences at One Dalton Street, the Boston condo market will enter a new level of pricing, services and amenities.

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Documents

Boston Urban Hub Report - First Quarter 2016