Boston UniversityBoston University8 Nov 20108 Nov 2010

CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL

Energy and DevelopmentEnergy and Development

Outline

• Unhealthy and Healthy Solutions

• Financing Global

Governance

Energy Infrastructure VulnerabilitiesEnergy Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

•Storms and interruptions

•Cooling water and nuclear power plants

•Melting permafrost and pipelines

•Warming Lightning

•Montane glacier loss hydropower Coal-fired plants

•Heatwaves/blackouts24 of 104: H24 of 104: H22O shortages loomO shortages loom

CCSCCS

48 T/y

Refineries

uranium thallium

Sludge, slurry & flyash

Estimated Costs in 2008 USDs

Low Best High

1. Land Disturbance: Carbon & Methane $728 million $2.2 billion $10.2 billion

2. Carcinogens $11.8 billion

3. Public health burden in Appalachian communities $74.6 billion

4. Fatalities among the public due to coal transport $1.8 billion

5. Emissions of Air Pollutants from Combustion $65 billion $187.5 billion $187.5 billion

6. Mercury Impacts$414.8 million $5.5 billion $19.3 billion

7. Subsidies $3.2 billion $3.2 billion $5.4 billion

8. Abandoned Mine Lands $8.8 billion

9. Climate $21.3 billion $63.9 billion $215.9 billion

The Annual Quantifiable Costs of Coal

Low Best High

Totals $175 billion $345 billion $ 523 billion

Added costs in ¢/kWh 9¢ 18¢ 27¢

Summary Table Annual life cycle costs of coal

And costs per kWh above the current price of coal-fired electricity

Epstein et al. Full Cost Accounting for the Life Cycle of Coal. Ecological Economics Reviews/NYAS, in press Jan 2011

Risks of CCS

– Acidification of aquifers, leaching heavy metals into ground water.

– Acidification and fractures of limestone (CaCO3).

– Release of highly-concentrated CO2, toxic to plants, wild animals and humans.

– Microbial communities may be altered, releasing other gases.

– Increased pressures raise risks of leaks and releases.

– Increased pressures may destabilize faults, causing earthquakes.

– Significant investment and insurance liabilities likely.

“Energy penalty” = 1.25 to 1.4 times as much coal

to produce an equal amount of energy;

increases diesel transport and all upstream stages.

•Mining

•Milling Worker and

•Transport Community exposures

•Processing

•Energy plants Ground H2O, heat waves, accidents

•Temporary storage Plutonium reprocessed and stored

•Long-term storage unsolved

• One ‘Yucca Mountain’ q5-10 years

•Security Thefts and attacks

Health and “The Yellow Cake Road”

Bow Bow Ridge Ridge FaultFault

- - USGS 5/21/07USGS 5/21/07

10 faults within 20-mile radius of Yucca Mt.

Solitario Canyon just west of planned site can produce an 6.5 magnitude earthquake.

-AP 9/25/07

$77 bn

BIOFUELS BIOFUELS

EIO-LCAEIO-LCA

BIOFUELS

Sugar

Corn/stalks

Switch grass

Farm waste

Grease

Energy In

Fertilizers

E

NOxs

E

Ethanol

CO2

Energy OutLand/Soils/Food production

H

E E

Fermentation

Combustion

E

Transport

GHGs

Recycling

SOLAR ENERGY E

Energy In and OutEnergy In and Out

Acetaldehyde O3

Healthy SolutionsHealthy Solutions

Electric VehiclesElectric Vehicles

Cleanly-Cleanly-powered, powered, smart gridsmart grid

Healthy Healthy CitiesCities

TrucksTrucksCarsCars

TrainsTrains

BusesBuses

Garden Garden toolstools

ShipsShips

Light-railLight-rail

CO2

O3, BC

‘Smart,’ ‘Self-Healing,’ Resilient, Robust Grids

DistributedDistributed

GenerationGeneration

RegionalRegional

GenerationGeneration

CentralCentral

GenerationGeneration

Co-GenerationGeothermal heat Geothermal heat pumps pumps A/CA/C

BatteriesBatteries

Renewables andRenewables andComputerized Computerized technologiestechnologies

Critical loads

Geothermal Wind

Solar thermal arrays and PV

Critical loads

Co-Generation

Generating the NationGenerating the Nation’’s Electricity s Electricity with Renewableswith Renewables

Flavin et al. Worldwatch Institute & Center for American Progress. September 2006.

A Solar Grand PlanA Solar Grand Plan69% grid by 2050 69% grid by 2050

--Zweibel et al. SciAm 1/08--Zweibel et al. SciAm 1/08

““A Grand Wind Plan”A Grand Wind Plan”1.5 ml turbines: 3 TW by 20201.5 ml turbines: 3 TW by 2020

-L. Brown 2008

McKinsey & Co. 2007

““Low Hanging Fruit”Low Hanging Fruit”

Distributed GenerationDistributed Generation

Distributed DevelopmentDistributed Development

WaterWater

PurificationPurification

PumpingPumping

IrrigationIrrigation

DesalinizationDesalinization

SchoolsSchoolsClinicsClinicsHomesHomesComputersComputersCookingCooking

Clean Energy: Necessary for AdaptationClean Energy: Necessary for Adaptation

Fortifying Infrastructure

Washington ConsensusWashington Consensus

DeregulationDeregulation

PrivatizationPrivatization

Liberalization Liberalization

RegulationRegulation

Public/Private Public/Private

Partnership PartnershipConstraints Constraints

GoodsGoodsCapitalCapital

XX rateratess

Bretton Bretton WoodsWoods

++

Debt Debt

Terms of TradeTerms of Trade

Tariffs & Tariffs & SubsidiesSubsidies

TNCsTNCs

IFIsIFIs

GEFGEF

FixedFixed

IIII

The Stern ReviewThe Stern Review

The Costs of Climate Change

Damages5-20% global GDP

Includes non-linear impacts

Adaptation Hundreds of $billions

Mitigation1% of GDP/yr

IEA $500 billion/yr x 20 years

Denationalizing global funds

• Currency Transactions

– 1972: $18 bn/day– 1990: $1.5 trillion/day– 2010: $4 trillion/day

• Tax to generate $1/2 trillion annually

Financial and Policy Instruments

THE ENGINE OF GROWTH

for the 21st CENTURY

TransportUtilitiesBuildings

REGULATIONS

EFFICIENCY STDS

TAXES, SUBSIDIES,

FUNDS

INSTITUTIONAL

FRAMEWORK

Public Health

Security

Economy

Climate Stability

Aligning Rewards and Regulations

Private sectorInvestmentsInsuranceRatings

Public sector Incentives

InfrastructureR&D Procurement practices

“Sticks”

“Carrots”

New Energy Plan

Corn Coal Nuclear

Lobbies

http://chge.med.harvard.eduhttp://chge.med.harvard.edu

http://www.climatechangefutures.orghttp://www.climatechangefutures.org

FOR Q&A

Stabilization WedgesStabilization Wedges

Energy Efficiency & Conservation1. Public transport; plug-in hybrids 2. ‘Smart grid’ – distribution, storage, use 3. Green buildings4. Conservation

Renewables 5. Wind

6. PV/Solar thermal

7. Geothermal

8. Biofuels

Fossil Fuel-based 11. Switch from Coal to Nat.

Gas

12. C Capture & Storage (CCS)

13. H2 Fuel Cells

14. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS

Natural Sinks 9. Forest mgmt/nurturing

10. Conservation tillage

No regrets

Study needed

15. Nuclear fission

77

Green BuildingsGreen Buildings

Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion

Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion

Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billion

Estimated Savings

Worker performance: $20 to $160 billion

20% faster on math tests

26% faster on reading tests

Schools with natural light

Stores with natural light: 40% more sales

Studies 1996USD B. Fisk. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Hospitals with better lighting & ventilation:

improved patient outcomes

CECE

GCGC SFSF

Total Energy Savings: $70 billion

Investments in Our Common Investments in Our Common FutureFuture

• WB Carbon Prototype Fund WB Carbon Prototype Fund – $100 Million$100 Million

• Venture Capital/Private and Public Venture Capital/Private and Public

Equity in US in 2007Equity in US in 2007– $117 Billion $117 Billion

Mountain Top RemovalMountain Top Removal

Air and water quality

Respiratory, kidney and heart disease

Injury and death

-- Hendryx et al. 2008 & 20009; Levy et al. 2009

-IPCC Tech Summary 2005

Carbon Dioxide Capture and Carbon Dioxide Capture and StorageStorage

AcidificationAcidification

-As-As

-Pb-PbMicrobial Microbial

communiticommunitieses

VegetatioVegetationn

HumansHumans

LimestoneLimestone

FracturesFractures

Exploration

Extraction

Transport crude

Refining

Transport refined

Air Pollution

Acid Rain

Climate Change

Eutrophication

NOxs

Warming OceansCoral ReefsSLREWEs & EIDsMelting Polar Ice

Harm

Marine

Mammals

Shore birds

Fisheries

Consumers

Livelihoods

Poverty

Conflict

OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTSOIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS

Spills &

Leaks

MERCURY

Combustion

Benzene

Petrochemicals