Boston, 3 December, 2010

IndEcol Expert Meeting “Critical Materials for a Clean Energy Future”

What can Material Flow Analysis (MFA) contribute to the critical minerals discussion?

Daniel B. Müller

Motivation

Risk for supply chain disruptions and impacts are poorly understood.

Difficulty to identify most effective interventions for specific elements(e.g., trade policy, substitution, recycling/reuse)

Problem shifts are possible / likely, but poorly understood

Hypothesis

System approach based on MFA can support the evaluation ofcritical materials policies systems defined in space and time (not functional units)

Research opportunities for MFA

1. Characterize critical elements cycles- links between cycles of different materials- links between material cycles and energy and emissions- links between cycles of different countries (trade)

2. Analyze dynamics of cycles- drivers (lifestyle, penetration of new technologies, trade…)- roles of stocks- sensitivities

3. Develop scenarios- anticipate demand- anticipate supply (limits)- identify problem shifts (to other materials, energy, emissions)- test impacts of supply disruptions- evaluate strategies (e.g., interventions in different places of chain)- risk assessment

Data challenge!

othersCDVN

USPT

THAURUBO

ID

PEMYBRCN

0100020003000

thousand metric tons

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

ReservesReserve Base Mine Production 2005

thousand metric tons

World Tin Reserves and Mine Production, 2005Static lifetime

[years]R RB

15 3044 203

500 600

17 2410 11

26 53

100 117181 375

262 308140 160

Inf inf

? ?

? ?

150 167

22 39

Data source: USGS 2006

Tin cycle USA, 2000 [Gg]

LiteratureMass balanceOwn calculations / estimations

Min

ing

Ref

inin

gD

etin

ning

Allo

yin

gT

inpl

ate

Man

ca

nsM

an o

th

EO

L C

ans

Lithosph.

20 / 40

Tailings

?

Gvt Stockp

60

Ore Ref.Tin

Landfills

1500

Use cans

Use oth.

EO

L O

th

Tinplate

Alloys

Cans

Others

Obs.cans

Obs.others

Ste

el I

nd

Steel

120 0

7.3 7.3

329

4.3

4.1

4.1

8.9

4

100

0

38

8.8

0

0

0.2

6.615.5

8.2 8.4 7.8 7.9

0.6 0.6

1.2

1.4

58

? ?0.2 ? 0.1 5

58 49 54 40 40

10

500

10.6

43

Tinplatescrap

Alloy scrap

What could be done if tin supply was critical?

LiteratureMass balanceOwn calculations / estimations

Min

ing

Ref

inin

gD

etin

ning

Allo

yin

gT

inpl

ate

Man

ca

nsM

an o

th

EO

L C

ans

Lithosph.

20 / 40

Tailings

?

Gvt Stockp

60

Ore Ref.Tin

Landfills

1500

Use cans

Use oth.

EO

L O

th

Tinplate

Alloys

Cans

Others

Obs.cans

Obs.others

Ste

el I

nd

Steel

120 0

7.3 7.3

329

4.3

4.1

4.1

8.9

4

100

0

38

8.8

0

0

0.2

6.615.5

8.2 8.4 7.8 7.9

0.6 0.6

1.2

1.4

58

? ?0.2 ? 0.1 5

58 49 54 40 40

10

500

10.6

43

Tinplatescrap

Alloy scrap

LiteratureMass balanceOwn calculations / estimations

Min

ing

Ref

inin

gD

etin

ning

Allo

yin

gT

inpl

ate

Man

ca

nsM

an o

th

EO

L C

ans

Lithosph.

20 / 40

Tailings

?

Gvt Stockp

60

Ore Ref.Tin

Landfills

1500

Use cans

Use oth.

EO

L O

th

Tinplate

Alloys

Cans

Others

Obs.cans

Obs.others

Ste

el I

nd

Steel

120 0

7.3 7.3

329

4.3

4.1

4.1

8.9

4

100

0

38

8.8

0

0

0.2

6.615.5

8.2 8.4 7.8 7.9

0.6 0.6

1.2

1.4

58

? ?0.2 ? 0.1 5

58 49 54 40 40

10

500

10.6

43

Tinplatescrap

Alloy scrap

Option 1: Release industry and government stockpiles

What could be done if tin supply was critical?

LiteratureMass balanceOwn calculations / estimations

Min

ing

Ref

inin

gD

etin

ning

Allo

yin

gT

inpl

ate

Man

ca

nsM

an o

th

EO

L C

ans

Lithosph.

20 / 40

Tailings

?

Gvt Stockp

60

Ore Ref.Tin

Landfills

1500

Use cans

Use oth.

EO

L O

th

Tinplate

Alloys

Cans

Others

Obs.cans

Obs.others

Ste

el I

nd

Steel

120 0

7.3 7.3

329

4.3

4.1

4.1

8.9

4

100

0

38

8.8

0

0

0.2

6.615.5

8.2 8.4 7.8 7.9

0.6 0.6

1.2

1.4

58

? ?0.2 ? 0.1 5

58 49 54 40 40

10

500

10.6

43

Tinplatescrap

Alloy scrap

Option 2: Utilize exported scrap domestically

What could be done if tin supply was critical?

LiteratureMass balanceOwn calculations / estimations

Min

ing

Ref

inin

gD

etin

ning

Allo

yin

gT

inpl

ate

Man

ca

nsM

an o

th

EO

L C

ans

Lithosph.

20 / 40

Tailings

?

Gvt Stockp

60

Ore Ref.Tin

Landfills

1500

Use cans

Use oth.

EO

L O

th

Tinplate

Alloys

Cans

Others

Obs.cans

Obs.others

Ste

el I

nd

Steel

120 0

7.3 7.3

329

4.3

4.1

4.1

8.9

4

100

0

38

8.8

0

0

0.2

6.615.5

8.2 8.4 7.8 7.9

0.6 0.6

1.2

1.4

58

? ?0.2 ? 0.1 5

58 49 54 40 40

10

500

10.6

43

Tinplatescrap

Alloy scrap

Option 3: Element-specific recycling

What could be done if tin supply was critical?

LiteratureMass balanceOwn calculations / estimations

Min

ing

Ref

inin

gD

etin

ning

Allo

yin

gT

inpl

ate

Man

ca

nsM

an o

th

EO

L C

ans

Lithosph.

20 / 40

Tailings

?

Gvt Stockp

60

Ore Ref.Tin

Landfills

1500

Use cans

Use oth.

EO

L O

th

Tinplate

Alloys

Cans

Others

Obs.cans

Obs.others

Ste

el I

nd

Steel

120 0

7.3 7.3

329

4.3

4.1

4.1

8.9

4

100

0

38

8.8

0

0

0.2

6.615.5

8.2 8.4 7.8 7.9

0.6 0.6

1.2

1.4

58

? ?0.2 ? 0.1 5

58 49 54 40 40

10

500

10.6

43

Tinplatescrap

Alloy scrap

Option 4: End-of-life recovery

What could be done if tin supply was critical?

LiteratureMass balanceOwn calculations / estimations

Min

ing

Ref

inin

gD

etin

ning

Allo

yin

gT

inpl

ate

Man

ca

nsM

an o

th

EO

L C

ans

Lithosph.

20 / 40

Tailings

?

Gvt Stockp

60

Ore Ref.Tin

Landfills

1500

Use cans

Use oth.

EO

L O

th

Tinplate

Alloys

Cans

Others

Obs.cans

Obs.others

Ste

el I

nd

Steel

120 0

7.3 7.3

329

4.3

4.1

4.1

8.9

4

100

0

38

8.8

0

0

0.2

6.615.5

8.2 8.4 7.8 7.9

0.6 0.6

1.2

1.4

58

? ?0.2 ? 0.1 5

58 49 54 40 40

10

500

10.6

43

Tinplatescrap

Alloy scrap

Option 5: Mining landfills

What could be done if tin supply was critical?

Uses of indium

Thin films: transparent and conductive coatings of indium tin oxide (ITO) for - liquid crystal displays (50% of In use!)- flat panel displays- touch screens- photovoltaic cells- smart windows- …

Example by-product element: indium (demand)

Demand is rising sharply Recycling challenge: Very small quantities per unit, but many units

PGM

supply of many “technology metals” is price-inelastic:

• Increased demand can only be met by primary production if demand for major metal rises accordingly

• Short term demand surges lead to price peaks (see Ir, Ru, In)• Effective recycling important for supply security

Metal families – most precious & special metals are coupled to major metals production

Source: Ch. Hagelueken(Umicore)

Example: Indium linkages

Indium supply needs to be studies by analyzing zinc cycle Indium cannot be extracted from a pool, but from a flow (zinc slag/dust) Similar to scrap! But with few substitutes.

Zn miningZn prod

In productsmanufact.

In pr. use In EOLmgt.

In refining

Landfills

Zn Slag / dust

In loss in plating of LCDs: 75%

Zn productsmanufact.

Zn pr. use Zn EOLmgt.

EAF Slag

Fe miningSteel prodmanufact.

Steel use Steel EOLmgt.

Steel prod.

Global Bauxite Production, 2007

Data Source: USGS, 2009Graph: Liu, 2009

Global aluminium production chain over time

Bauxite

a.1930

b.1970

c.2007

b.1970

c.2007

Alumina

c.2007

b.1971

a.1930

Aluminium

Source: Liu 2010

Global trade of Al containing products along value chain, 2006countries ranked by per-capita GDP

Norway

USA

Jamaica

Guinea

China

Johansen 2010

Data challenge

- Data availability for critical materials is critical!

- Data provided by governments are usually not integrated into a systems context. limited potential to inform policies and own measurement programs a growing number of universities spend a lot of time compiling data, with different degrees of transparency – waste of brain power and money small incentives for data sharing…

Coordinated effort needed!

Prod Manuf Use EOLM

Lithosp Landfills, other repositories

GeologicalSurveys

UN Statistics: harmonized…

National accounts