Borneo International Conference: Discover Borneo

Nick A Chappell1 & Waidi Sinun2

Mitigating land-use and climatechange impacts in Borneo using environmental informatics

Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University1

Conservation & Environmental Management Division, Yayasan Sabah Group2

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Information

In UK, legal definition

(a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment

Environmental Information Regulations (2004)

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Information

In UK, legal definition

(a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment

Environmental Information Regulations (2004)

Data

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Information

In UK, legal definition

(a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment

Environmental Information Regulations (2004)

Laws

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Information

In UK, legal definition

(a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment

Environmental Information Regulations (2004)

Interpretation

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Information

In UK, legal definition

(a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment

Environmental Information Regulations (2004)

Quality

control

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Informatics

UK’s leading environ’tal research organization…

...Research and system development focusing on the environmental sciences relating to the creation, collection, storage, processing, modelling, interpretation, display and dissemination of data and information...

Natural Environment Research CouncilScience Topic 16

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Informatics

UK’s leading environ’tal research organization…

...Research and system development focusing on the environmental sciences relating to the creation, collection, storage, processing, modelling, interpretation, display and dissemination of data and information...

Natural Environment Research CouncilScience Topic 16

Traditional Decision Support

System

1. What is Environmental Informatics?

Environmental Informatics

UK’s leading environ’tal research organization…

...Research and system development focusing on the environmental sciences relating to the creation, collection, storage, processing, modelling, interpretation, display and dissemination of data and information...

Natural Environment Research CouncilScience Topic 16

Novel EI aspects

2. Why use EI to help mitigate land-use & climate change impacts in Borneo?

Exact image source lost, but refers to Daily Express article 14/2/06

2. Why use EI to help mitigate land-use & climate change impacts in Borneo?

may present largest threat to civil society for peoples of

Borneo Island

3. What are these changes?

3.1. Climate change impacts in a Borneo context

Climate change itself

‘average weather’

or

mean & variability of atmospheric variables over anytime period

normally based on +30 yrs observations

Globe 0.7 oC warmer than 1900 (+0.2

oC/dec past 30 yrs)

Brohan et al., 2006. J. Geophys.

Res. 111: d12106

1960-1998 temperature trends in Borneo

Malhi & Wright, 2004. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 359: 351-329

1961-2000: 2.7-4.0 oC/100yrs: Tangang et al.,

2007. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 89: 3-4

evaporation from

biosphere

rainfall

atmos water vapour

Temp+

+

+

+

so calledacceleration ofTropical Water

Cycle

Temp

+

Loss of livelihoodseconomic loss

Loss of lifeeconomic loss

Frequency of large rain/flood events

Rainfall cyclicitydrought incidence

+

+

+

Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

Impacts

Temp

+

Loss of livelihoodseconomic loss

Loss of lifeeconomic loss

Frequency of large rain/flood events

Rainfall cyclicitydrought incidence

+

+

+

Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

ImpactsEM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

Database, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Bel. Data version: v11.08.

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=105

Natural disaster

occurrence reported for

Malaysia

Temp

+

Loss of livelihoodseconomic loss

Loss of lifeeconomic loss

Frequency of large rain/flood events

Rainfall cyclicitydrought incidence

+

+

+

Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

ImpactsEM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

Database, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Bel. Data version: v11.08.

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=105

...but little academic work published recently in international journals

Temp

+

Loss of livelihoodseconomic loss

Loss of lifeeconomic loss

Frequency of large rain/flood events

Rainfall cyclicitydrought incidence

+

+

+

Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

Impacts

Bidin & Chappell, 2006. Hydrol. Process. 20: 3835-3850; Chappell et al., 2009. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54: 571-581; Hara et al., 2009. J Meteorol. Soc.

Japan 87: 413-424. Kitoh & Arakawa, 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L18709; Wu et al.,

2008. J Meteorol. Soc. Japan 86: 187-203 ...Walsh & Newbery, 1999. Phil. Trans. R.

Soc. B 1391: 1869-1883

Temp

+

Loss of livelihoodseconomic loss

Loss of lifeeconomic loss

Frequency of large rain/flood events

Rainfall cyclicitydrought incidence

+

+

+

Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

Impacts

Since 2004: Baker & Bunyavejchewin, 2009. ISBN 9783540773801; Boyd et al., 2006. Int. J. Remote Sens. 27: 2197-2219; Brearley et al., 2007. J. Ecol. 95: 828-839;

*Kishimoto-Yamada et al., 2009. Bull. Entomol. Res. 99: 217-227; Newbery &

Lingenfelder, 2009. Plant Ecol. 201: 147-167; Silk, 2004. Oecologia 141: 114-120; Silk et al., 2008. Oecologia 158-579-588; *Skinner & Hopwood, 2004. Am. J. Phys.

Anthropol. 123: 216-235; Van der Werf et al., 2008. PNAS 105: 20350-20355

3. What are these changes?

3.2. Land-use change impacts in a Borneo context

utilizing or converting lands to provide necessary financial returns to improve

national livelihoods

must have some negative impactsno gain without pain

http://www.worldlandtrust.org/images/places/malaysia/oil-palm-plantation-vl.jpg

In Borneo, observe (even by eye) more turbid rivers

hopefully largely temporary (decadal scales)

Chappell et al., 2004. Hydrol. Process. 18:685-701; Siti Nurhidayu Abu Bakar, PhD in progress

Adapted from http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/4545563.jpg

In Borneo, might observe (by e-sensors) rivers enriched in agro-chemicals

http://www.bbec.sabah.gov.my/HabitatManagement/TWRnKWR.jpg

HPLC for pesticid

e analysis

Abdullah, 1995. Trends Anal. Chem. 14: 191-198

4. How do we attribute change?

What (or who) is responsible for the temperature change or the elevated turbidity in Borneo?

past change or predicted (future) change

cannot be too simplistic if wish to identify cost - effective solutions

at regional scales: several or many possible agents

e.g., attribution of Borneo climate change

see change in temperature observations

Despite some recent questioning of reliability of surface observations in USA & globally due to urbanisation around met stations (e.g., Menne,

2010. J. Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2009JD013094, in press) = EI

But how much in Borneo is due to:

1/ excessive biomass burning in the ‘West’ for many decades?

‘greenhouse effect’

CO2

1750: 280 ppm CO2

now: 380 ppm CO2

Other gases (GHGs)

e.g., methane, nitrous oxide

similar effect –

cumulative effect

CO2eNow 430 ppm CO2e

Stern, 2007. ISBN: 9780521700801

IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policy Makers. In Climate

Change 2007, ISBN: 9780521705974

and how much in Borneo is due to:

2/ local effect of fires in Borneo (e.g., 1997/98)?

shown to directly reduce Borneo rainfall (via smaller cloud droplets)

e.g., Rosenfeld, 1999. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: 3105-3108

also on CO2 & aerosol* emissions

Balihorn et al., 2009. PNAS 106: 21213-21218; *Lin et al., 2007. Deep-Sea Res. PtII 54: 1589-1601

and how much in Borneo is due to:

3/ regional rainforest loss (selective felling or clearfelling)?

Global Circulation Models have shown contradictory resultsfor the effects on evaporation & rainfall

Review table from Martin Fowell, 2006 PhD Lancaster http://www.theses.com/idx/scripts/it.asp?xml=F:\index\idx\docs\all\56\it00525129.htm&subfolder=/search

Study Integration (con/def)

Precipitation (mm/year)

Evapotranspiration (mm/year)

Dickinson & Henderson Sellers (1988) 3/1 yr 0 -200 Lean & Warrilow (1989) 3/3 yr -490 -310 Nombre et al (1991) 1/1 yr -640 -500 Lean & Rountree (1992) 3/3 yr -295 -200 Dickinson& Kennedy (1992) 3/3 yr -511 -255 Mylne & Rountree (1992) 9/9 mo -339 -179 Dirmeyer (1992) 14/14 mo 33 -146 Henderson-Sellers et al (1993) 6/6 yr -588 -232 Polcher & Laval (1994)a 1/1 yr 395 -985 Polcher & Laval (1994)b 11/11 yr -186 -128 Sud et al (1995) 3/3 yr -266 -350 McGuffie et al (1995) 14/6 yr -437 -231 Henderson-Sellers et al (1994) 25/11 yr -402 -222

e.g., attribution of Borneo land-use change

see period when rivers turbid, how much is due:

Nor

mal

ised

sed

imen

t flu

x m

m/d

rain

fall

equi

vale

nts

‘90 La Nina

‘95-96 La Nina

‘92 El Niño‘97 ElNiño

Chappell et al., 2004. Forests, Water & People in the Humid Tropics, DOI: 10.2277/0521829534

http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780511108792

in a wet period (e.g., La Nina)?

how much due to land - disturbance during e.g. forestry?

what does RIL look like compared to former CONV selective felling?

What does EI tell us?

e.g., for turbidity

1/ need high quality measurements of river through all fast changes to quantify well enough – fortunately EI technology (e-

sensor) developments over last 20 years allow

2/ need to ‘zoom in’ to local scales to attribute (statistically) large-scale observations to individual causal factors (e.g., presence of a

riparian buffer)

3/ need to separate effects of impacts (often long residence times) from natural cycles and trends (e.g., ENSO), i.e., model long-term

observations

cannot see & attribute change

without using these key EI elements (collection, processing/QA, modelling)

with any degree of confidence

i.e., say specific change is probable rather than possible

new emphasis on these terms in climate change science & policy

5. Why worry about land-use & climate change impacts in Borneo?

Why should ‘you’ worry about LU&CCI given currentuncertainty in observations and models?

1/ CIVIL SOCIETY (INDIVIDUALS & COMMUNITIES)

Very beauty & excitement of your Borneo environment (attracts tourists/scientists) makes you more sensitive / vulnerable to change, as it…

http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/Malaysia/East/Sabah/photo862332.htm

can be very violent & unpredictable…

e.g., Borneo Vortex e.g., ENSO drought sensitivity

Inte

r-an

nual

rain

fall

cycl

icity

(mm

/d)

‘90 La Nina

‘95-96 La Nina

‘92 El Niño‘97 ElNiño

Chappell et al., 2004. Forests, Water & People in the Humid Tropics, DOI:

10.2277/0521829534

Chang, 2004. East Asian Monsoon, ISBN: 981238692; Chang et al., 2005. Mon.

Weather Rev. 133: 489-503; Juneng et al., 2007. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 98: 81-98

(extra Borneo impact)

Living by rivers (kampung): vulnerable to flood events

Living by sea (bandar): vulnerable to sea-level change, King Tides etc

Livelihoods from rainforest: complex, difficult to predict limit of use before collapse

http://www.lexphoto.co.uk/blogimages/mulu%20rainforest.jpg

from http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/Malaysia/East/Sabah/photo697519.htm

2/ GOVERNMENT (& BUSINESS)

Governments need to secure the future – maximising returns from the environment – without the risk of environmental collapse

avoiding theories of collapse for e.g., Mayan, Sumerian etc civilisations, Great Dust Bowl in USA etc

http://www.cathedralcitytravel.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/belize108.jpg

6. The future prospects with EI?

3 aspects of EI may help ongoing & future mitigation of land-use and climate change impacts…

1/ TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES1.1. More reliable & more accurate e-sensors for measuring environment

e.g., YSI Water Quality sonde

1.2. Faster & cheaper computers & storage devices

now have the capacity to handle (telemetry, process, model) & store (DBMS, GIS) environmental

data needed

http://cdn.wn.com/ph/img/c0/02/0416a42facdcf5e1aba31a444087-grande.jpg

1.3. Expansion of the internet

easier to access environmental information – critically for decision makers supported by scientists providing data, QA & interpretation to

them

also potentially for stakeholders (business / civil society) to provide input

http://www.sripetaling.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/p1000474.jpg

2/ EXPANSION OF ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION

notably expansion of university sector on Borneo Island, e.g.,

…many more people opportunity to make the most of complex environmental information

but also via greater use of computers in schools

e.g., Malaysian Smart School Project

http://www.itu.int

& pupil access to environmental field

stations

e.g., Kuala Belalong Field Studies Centre, Brunei

Darussalam

http://www.ubd.edu.bn/academic/centres/kbfsc/

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2278/3538081056_04143af98d_o.jpg

3/ GREATER SHARING OF RESEARCH INFORMATION

Traditional DSS – poor on data quality checking & modelling sophistication

Decision makers need better access to high quality environmental information

Recent years...

researchers now compelled publish in international journals

Gives environmental information...

more readily available to all resource centres

better quality (editors/reviewers demand)

Value to decision makers (& stakeholders)...

a/ More readily use environmental interpretation from similar environments elsewhere in the world

b/ Foreign researchers benefiting from collaborating in studies in Borneo make environmental information collated more accessible

Improvements...

Better access to the raw data

Interpretations valuable, but surely better for decision makers (& stakeholders) in Borneo to have access to raw data collected by

researchers?

...you then decide on your own interpretation

In UK, while slow, this is starting to happen...

e.g., UK-funded climate change science

including OP3 project focused on Sabah

e.g., UK land-use change

based at LEC (CEH-Lancaster)

If K@Borneo were to have capacity to input / store raw data & QA

(in addition to published interpretation) plus desire to request information

Potential for huge benefits for decision makers (& stakeholders)

Only expectation of researchers (anywhere in globe) - sufficient time to publish before sharing data & use by others is

acknowledged (plagiarism avoided)

6. ConclusionIncorporation of all aspects of EI into K@Borneo

…tremendous potential to make significant contribution to mitigation (by decision makers) of land-use & climate change in Borneo

Causes

Climate..

Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University

Conservation & Environmental Management, Yayasan Sabah