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Border Security Risk Model
Murray E. Jennex, Ph.D., P.E., CISSP, CSSLP
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• This project is focusing on border risk – Risk from bringing in new technologies– Risk from border security threats– Risk from changes in the organizations
managing border security
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• Project Goals are:– Quantify Threats, Risks, and Security Levels– Simulation and Modeling of Countermeasures– Inventory of Current Technologies Used in
Border Security & Risk Management– Prioritize Needed Technologies & Systems– Identify, Test, & Evaluate Easily Deployed,
Commercially Available Technologies– Identify Technology Gaps that Require
Further Development– Creation of a Border Security Risk Monitor
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• Project Outputs are:– Risk Assessment and Mitigation Decision
Framework– BSI Readiness and Maturity Model– Prototype Border Security Risk Monitor– Adaptive, Risk-Informed Resource Allocation
• Each output leads to the next
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• Challenges– Greatest challenge is in getting data for
constructing risk models for different areas of the border:
• North vs south• Ports vs airports• External vs internal
– Will leverage efforts from other projects, in particular the case studies that are being done
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• Challenges
– Risk model challenges include variable and rule identification
– Risk monitor prototype challenges include:• Choosing a technology platform• Complexity of risk models
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• Benefits include:– Provides framework for assessing border
risks (more than immigration and terrorism)• Provide a system for determining risk level• Provide a system for determining contingency
actions– Provide methodology to support evaluation
and deployment of new technologies within an integrated framework of layered protection
• Assess organizational needs for supporting new technologies
• Identify dependencies between technologies
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• Year One Deliverables:– Survey of Risk Literature– DHS Data Needs/Assessment– Decision Framework– Survey of Readiness Models
Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project
• Investigators:– University of Arizona
• Larry Head• Ferenc Szidarovszky • Jian Liu
– San Diego State University• Murray Jennex• Eric Frost• Robert Judge
– Arizona State University• Rick Van Schoik
– RAND Corporation• Henry Willis• Joel Predd