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Review Study

Task 7

Scenarios

FINAL REPORT

Review study of Commission Regulation (EU) No. 813/2013 [Ecodesign] and Commission Delegated Regulation No. (EU) No. 811/2013 (Energy Label)

Prepared by

VHK, Delft (NL), for the

European Commission, DG ENER C.3

July 2019

The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission.

Space and combination heaters

Ecodesign and Energy Labelling

II

Prepared by

Study team: Van Holsteijn en Kemna B.V. (VHK), The Netherlands, in collaboration with BRG Building Solutions, London (UK)

Authors: Rob van Holsteijn, René Kemna, Martijn van Elburg, Leo Wierda (all VHK)

Study team contact: René Kemna ([email protected])

Contract manager: Jan Viegand, Viegand Maagøe

Project website: www.ecoboiler-review.eu

Specific contract: no. ENER/C3/SER/FV 2016-537/08/FWC 2015-619 LOT2/02/SI2.753930

Title: Review Study existing ecodesign & energy labelling SPACE HEATERS & COMBINATION HEATERS

Contract date: 9.6.2017

Consortium: Viegand Maagøe, VHK, Wuppertal Institute, Armines, Oakdene Hollins

Cover: Gas-fired central heating boiler [picture VHK 2016-2017]

NOTICE

To avoid confusion with the many other space heaters that have been regulated through Ecodesign since 2013, space and combination heaters are in the reports of this study often referred to as ‘boiler’ or ‘central heating boiler’ (DE. Heizkessel, FR. Chaudière, IT. Caldaia, NL. Verwarmingsketel) to mean: a gas/oil/heat pump/electric resistance central space heater for hydronic emitter systems.

_______________________

This study was ordered and paid for by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy.

The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein.

This report has been prepared by the authors to the best of their ability and knowledge. The authors do not assume liability for any damage, material or immaterial, that may arise from the use of the report or the information contained therein.

© European Union, July 2019.

Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.

III

More information on the European Union is available on the internet (https://europa.eu).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The scope of Task 7 is to perform a scenario analysis, i.e. to analyse the evolution over time of environmental and socio-economic impacts due to the use of space heating appliances in scope of the study. The impacts include energy consumption, GHG-emissions, monetary impacts for users and businesses, and associated jobs.

The impacts are first estimated for the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, reflecting the situation and the projection with the current regulations in force (boiler regulations 811/2013 (Energy Label, EL) and 813/2013 (Ecodesign, ED)). In a next step the impacts are estimated for ECO-scenarios, including the policy options presented in the Task 6 report, with the aim to derive the change in impacts (savings) due to these options. The impacts are also estimated for a BAU0 scenario, representing the projection in absence of the existing EL- and ED-regulations, with the aim to derive the change in impacts (savings) due to the current regulations.

Demand for space heating:

The total EU-28 demand for space heating in 2016 is around 2860 TWh. Of this, 1481 TWh (52%) is provided by space heaters in scope of this study1. The average unit heat demand in 2016 of the 125 mln space heaters in scope is 11800 kWh/a, expected to decrease by 0.85% per year due to the reduction of thermal losses of buildings. As a result, due to parallel increasing population and request for comfort, the total EU-28 demand is projected to decrease by 0.35% per year2.

Energy consumption:

In 2016 the EU-28 total primary energy consumption by space heaters in scope of this study is 2004 TWh/a, of which 1859 TWh/a fuel and 145 TWh/a primary energy for electricity3. Considering the total heat output of 1481 TWh/a, the average boiler efficiency is 74%.

In the same year, 15% of the energy is consumed by 400-1000 kW heaters, although these heaters occupy only 0.4% of the stock. It is therefore recommended to add the 400-1000 kW devices to the scope of the regulations.

In 2030, in the BAU scenario, the primary energy decreases to 1609 TWh/a, of which 1429 TWh/a fuel and 180 TWh/a primary energy for electricity. The load-weighted average boiler efficiency is 85%.

1 Source: Task 3. This includes 1286 TWh for central heating boilers < 400 kW, and 195 TWh for boilers

between 400 and 1000 kWh. The rest is provided by: solid fuel boilers (106), local heaters (255), central air heaters (244), reversible air conditioners (98), district heating (400), industrial steam boilers, large CHP and Waste Heat Recovery systems (together 280 TWh)

2 Source: ‘Average EU building heat load for HVAC equipment’, VHK for the European Commission, August 2014, section 7.2. This is a balance of an increase in demand due to more households, higher average floor area per dwelling, and more comfort, and a decrease in demand due to improved thermal insulation and reduction of ventilation losses.

3 For conversion of electricity to primary energy, a Primary Energy Factor (PEF) of 2.1 is used.

IV

In 2050, in the BAU scenario, the primary energy further decreases to 1259 TWh/a, of which 973 TWh/a fuel and 286 TWh/a primary energy for electricity. The load-weighted average boiler efficiency is 97%. In the ECO-scenario, the 2050 primary energy can be reduced to 1004 TWh/a, a saving of 255 TWh/a (20%). This saving derives from a shift in sales from lower-efficiency gas/oil products towards higher-efficiency hybrids, heat pumps, micro-CHPs and solar devices.

GHG-emissions:

In 2016 the EU-28 total GHG-emissions due to the use of space heaters in scope of the study are 429 MtCO2eq/a of which 64% derives from the use of gaseous fuels, 29% from liquid fuels, 6% from electricity and less than 1% from refrigerant losses.

In 2030, in the BAU-scenario, the total emissions reduce to 297 MtCO2eq/a. The 31% decrease compared to 2016 is due to a decrease in gas and oil consumption, and to mixing natural gas with a share of hydrogen. The increase in electricity consumption is compensated by a decrease in GWP-factor (higher share of renewables).

In 2050, in the BAU-scenario, EU total emissions due to space heaters reduce to 173 MtCO2eq/a (60% less than in 2016, due to the same reasons mentioned for 2030). In the ECO-scenario, the 2050 emissions can be further reduced to only 67 MtCO2eq/a, a saving of 106 MtCO2eq/a, when replacing the natural gas – hydrogen mix by 100% hydrogen starting from 2040. To enable this saving, it should be made mandatory from 2025 for all gas-based space heating appliances to be H2-ready.

User expense:

In 2016 the EU-28 total user expenses for space heating in scope of the study are 175 bn euros, of which 24 bn euros acquisition costs (purchase and installation), 131 bn euros energy costs and 20 bn euros maintenance costs4.

In the BAU-scenario, these expenses are projected to increase to 186 bn euros in 2030 and 211 bn euros in 2050. In the ECO-scenario, the 2050 user expense can be reduced by 5 bn euros. These savings are the balance of 20 bn euros additional acquisition costs (for purchasing and installing hybrids, heat pumps, micro-CHP and solar devices instead of less expensive gas and oil boilers), and 25 bn euros savings on energy costs (lower energy consumption due to use of high-efficiency boilers).

Revenues and jobs:

In 2016, business revenues related to space heating products in scope sold and used in EU-28 amounted to 41.6 bn euros, of which industry revenue 7.5 bn (18%), wholesale and retail 4 bn (10%), installation 12.8 bn (31%) and maintenance 17.3 bn euros (42%). These revenues indicate around 450,000 associated jobs (worldwide, not necessarily in EU-28).

In the BAU-scenario this is projected to increase in 2030 to 48.8 bn euros and 541,000 jobs, and in 2050 to 63.5 bn euros and 716,000 jobs. In the ECO-scenario in 2050, revenues can further increase by 16.8 bn euros, creating 200 thousand additional jobs.

4 All expenses are in 2015 euros and include 20% VAT for residential share. Annual increase of energy rates

follows PRIMES 2015 reference scenario: 1%/a for electricity rates; 1.5%/a for gas and oil rates.

V

Summary:

Table 1: Summary of scenario results for years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios.

(inc = increment, BAU-ECO; negative values indicate a reduction in ECO; positive values an addition in ECO. Source: VHK analysis 2019)

Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating unit 2020 2030 2040 2050 Sales '000 6,825 7,112 7,365 7,603 Stock '000 126,960 128,614 130,498 135,157 Effective heat output per unit kWh heat/a 11,461 10,631 9,788 9,039 EU effective heat output TWh heat/a 1,455 1,367 1,277 1,222

Scenario BAU BAU ECO inc BAU ECO inc BAU ECO inc

Primary energy TWh prim/a 1894 1610 1531 -78 1401 1227 -174 1259 1004 -255 Final energy TWh final/a 1815 1515 1431 -84 1278 1080 -198 1109 809 -300 o/w electricity TWh elec/a 72 86 91 5 111 134 22 136 177 41 o/w fuel TWh fuel/a 1742 1429 1340 -90 1167 946 -220 973 632 -341 GWP emissions MtCO2/a 403 297 279 -18 216 106 -110 173 67 -106 Acquisition costs bn € 28 37 44 7 46 60 14 56 76 20 Energy costs bn € 131 129 123 -6 132 117 -14 138 113 -25 Maintenance costs bn € 20 19 19 0 18 18 0 18 17 0 Total running costs bn € 151 149 143 -6 150 135 -15 156 130 -26 Total expenditure bn € 179 186 187 1 196 195 -1 211 206 -5 Revenue Industry m € 7512 9475 11276 1801 11434 14886 3452 13551 18528 4977 Revenue Wholesale m € 1982 2510 2981 472 3036 3947 912 3604 4923 1319 Revenue Retail m € 1982 2510 2981 472 3036 3947 912 3604 4923 1319 Revenue Installation m € 13031 17742 21243 3500 22403 29261 6858 27433 37434 10001 Revenue Maintenance m € 17302 16587 16502 -85 15746 15382 -364 15290 14462 -827 Jobs Industry, OEM, services '000 jobs 139 175 209 33 212 276 64 251 343 92 Jobs Wholesale '000 jobs 7 9 11 2 11 15 3 13 18 5 Jobs Retail/ install/ maint. '000 jobs 311 357 396 39 400 474 74 451 557 105 Jobs Total '000 jobs 458 541 615 74 623 765 142 716 918 202

VI

ACRONYMS AND UNITS

3XS / XXS / XS / S / M / L / XL / XXL / 3XL / 4XL

Size classes for water heating tapping patterns, from very small XXS to medium M to very large 4XL

811/2013 Energy Label Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No. 811/2013 for central heating boilers

813/2013 Ecodesign Commission Regulation (EU) No. 813/2013 for central heating boilers

ASHP Air-Source Heat Pump

B1, C4, C8 Boiler classifications on the basis of air input and flue gas handling

CC Conversion Coefficient (here equal to pef)

CH Central Heating

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2 Carbon dioxide (R744 as refrigerant)

(m)CHP (micro) Combined Heat and Power

EC European Commission

EED Energy Efficiency Directive

e-fuels Electro-fuels (gas/oil produced with carbon-neutral electricity through electrolysis, methanation, etc.)

EHP Electric heat pump

ENER EC, Directorate-General Energy

EPBD Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

GCV Gross Calorific Value (of a fuel)

GHP Gas-fired Heat Pump

GSHP Ground-Source Heat Pump

H2 Hydrogen

HC Hydrocarbons

HT High Temperature

LCC Life Cycle Costs

LLCC Least Life Cycle Costs

LT Low Temperature

MCP Medium-Sized Combustion Plants

MSA Market Surveillance Authority

NBR Nitril Butadien Rubber

NCV Net Calorific Value (of a fuel)

NH3 Ammonia

NOx Nitrogen oxides

PE Poly-ethylene

pef primary energy factor

PEM Proton Exchange Membrane

POM Polyoxymethylene

PVC Poly Vinyl Chloride

RRT Round Robin Test

SCOP Seasonal Coefficient Of Performance

SEER Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio

SOFC Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

VHK Van Holsteijn en Kemna (author)

VSHP Exhaust-Air (Ventilation) Source Heat Pump

WP Working Package

ηs Seasonal space heating energy efficiency

Parameters

P Power [kW]

E energy input [kWh]

Q heat output[kWh]

η efficiency [-]

h hours

K degree Kelvin

kWh kilo Watt hour

°C degree Celsius

a annum (year)

W Watt

Ecodesign Review Boilers, Task 7, Final | July 2019 | VHK for EC 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................ III

ACRONYMS AND UNITS ............................................................................... VI

TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................... 1

1

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 4

1.1 Scope .................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Methodology ........................................................................................... 4 1.3 Report Structure ..................................................................................... 5

2

SALES.................................................................................................. 6

3

STOCK ................................................................................................. 8

4

LOAD (HEAT DEMAND) .......................................................................... 10

5

ENERGY EFFICIENCY ............................................................................. 14

6

ENERGY ............................................................................................. 16

7

GHG EMISSIONS ................................................................................. 22

8

USER EXPENSE .................................................................................... 27

9

BUSINESS REVENUES AND JOBS .............................................................. 33

10 STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ..................................................................... 36

ANNEX A: SCENARIO ANALYSIS DATA ............................................................ 39

Sales ............................................................................................................ 39 Stock ............................................................................................................ 40 Load (heat demand) ....................................................................................... 41 Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................ 42 Fuel Consumption .......................................................................................... 43 Electricity Consumption ................................................................................... 44 Primary Energy Consumption ........................................................................... 45 GHG-emissions .............................................................................................. 46 Acquisition Costs ............................................................................................ 47 Energy Costs ................................................................................................. 48 Maintenance Costs ......................................................................................... 49 User Expense ................................................................................................. 50


LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table 1: Summary of scenario results for years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. ............................................................................................... V

Table 2. Base cases considered in the scenario analysis.............................................. 5

Table 3. Breakdown of the total EU load for space heating (year 2014) .......................10

Table 4. Refrigerant losses, per year and at end-of-life, for hybrids and heat pumps. ....23

Table 5. Acquisition prices per unit. ........................................................................27

Table 6: Summary of scenario results for revenues and jobs, for years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. .............................................................35

Table 7. EU-28 sales per base case for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures) .............................................................................................39

Table 8. EU-28 stock per base case for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures) .............................................................................................40

Table 9. Unit load: identical for all base cases < 400 kW, and identical for all scenarios. Annual variation is 0.85%/a. ..................................................................................41

Table 10. EU-28 total space heating demand covered by Central Heating Boilers in scope of the study (EU-load in TWh/a), for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures) .............................................................................................41

Table 11. Energy Efficiency of products sold in a given year. ......................................42

Table 12. EU-28 total fuel consumption for space heaters in scope. ............................43

Table 13. EU-28 total electricity consumption for space heaters in scope. ....................44

Table 14. EU-28 total primary energy consumption for space heaters in scope. ............45

Table 15. EU-28 total GHG-emissions for space heaters in scope. ...............................46

Table 16. EU-28 total Acquisition Costs (purchase and installation) for space heaters in scope. .................................................................................................................47

Table 17. EU-28 total Energy Costs for space heaters in scope. ..................................48

Table 18. Energy rates, inflation corrected in 2015 (euro). ........................................48

Table 19. EU-28 total Maintenance Costs for space heaters in scope. ..........................49

Table 20. EU-28 total User Expense for space heaters in scope. .................................50

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Annual sales of Space Heating appliances in scope of this study, total for EU-28 in 000 units, for the BAU-scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom). ......................... 7

Figure 2. Stock of Space Heating appliances in scope of this study, total for EU-28 in 000 units, for the BAU-scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom). ............................... 9


Figure 3. EU-28 total space heating load (user demand for heat output) in TWh/a, for appliances in scope of this study, for the BAU-scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom). ............................................................................................................ 12

Figure 4. EU-28 total space heating load (user demand for heat output) in TWh/a, for all types of space heaters. ......................................................................................... 13

Figure 5. EU-28 total final fuel consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO scenario (bottom), in TWh GCV/a. ............................ 18

Figure 6. EU-28 total final fuel consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in TWh GCV/a. ...................................................................................... 18

Figure 7. EU-28 total electricity consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO scenario (bottom), in TWh/a. ................................... 19

Figure 8. EU-28 total electricity consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in TWh/a. ............................................................................................. 19

Figure 9. EU-28 total primary energy consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO scenario (bottom), in TWh GCV/a. ....................... 20

Figure 10. EU-28 total primary energy consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference. ....................................................................................................... 20

Figure 11. EU-28 total GHG-emissions by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom), in MtCO2eq/a. .................................... 25

Figure 12. EU-28 total GHG-emissions by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in MtCO2eq/a. ...................................................................................................... 25

Figure 13. EU-28 total GHG-emissions by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO-scenarios, subdivided by origin, in MtCO2eq/a. ............................................ 26

Figure 14. EU-28 total Acquisition costs for space heaters in scope of the study, in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom), in bn euros 2015/a. ..................... 30

Figure 15. EU-28 total Acquisition costs for space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in bn euros 2015/a. ............................................................................... 30

Figure 16. EU-28 total Energy costs for space heaters in scope of the study, in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom), in bn euros 2015/a. ............................ 31

Figure 17. EU-28 total Energy costs for space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in bn euros 2015/a. .............................................................................................. 31

Figure 18. EU-28 total User Expense for acquisition and operation of space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in bn euros 2015/a. ...................................... 32


1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Scope

The scope of Task 7 is to perform a scenario analysis, i.e. to analyse the evolution over time of environmental and socio-economic impacts due to the use of space heating appliances in scope of the study. The impacts include energy consumption, GHG- emissions, monetary impacts for users and businesses, and associated jobs.

The impacts are first estimated for the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, reflecting the situation and the projection with the current regulations in force (boiler regulations 811/2013 (Energy Label, EL) and 813/2013 (Ecodesign, ED)). In a next step the impacts are estimated for one or more ECO-scenarios, including the policy options presented in the Task 6 report, with the aim to derive the change in impacts (savings) due to these options. The impacts are also estimated for a BAU0 scenario, representing the projection in the case that the current EL- and ED-regulations never existed, with the aim to derive the change in impacts (savings) due to the current regulations.

1.2 Methodology

The scenario analysis follows the MEErP 5, and more in particular the methodology of the Ecodesign Impact Accounting (EIA)6.

The inputs for the calculations, e.g. sales, lifetimes, loads (user demand for heat output), (real-life) efficiencies, prices, rates, etc. are taken from the information presented in the preceding task reports.

The analysis covers the period 1990-2050, with additional inputs for sales and efficiencies going back as far as 1960 to enable realistic stock calculations from 1990 onwards.

The analysis is performed for EU-28 (including UK).

Table 2 gives a survey of the base cases considered in the scenario analysis: gas boilers, oil/gas jet burners, electric (Joule-effect) boilers, gas/electric hybrids, heat pumps (electric or gas), micro CHP, and solar thermal combis. These base cases are for devices with a power less than 400 kW.

Boilers with power between 400 and 1000 kW are considered as a single separate base case, in relation to the policy option to extend the regulation scope to this power range (see Task 6).

Gas boilers and oil/gas jet burners are subdivided in condensing and non-condensing versions. This reflects sales and stock data availability, facilitates assignment of energy efficiencies, and enables the analysis to show how non-condensing appliances are being replaced by condensing appliances.

5 https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/26525 6 Wierda, L., Kemna, R. et al. (VHK), Ecodesign Impact Accounting, VHK for EC DG ENER C.3, 2013-2018.

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/studies/ecodesign-impact-accounting-0


Electric heat pumps, mCHP and Solar include the supplementary backup boiler.

Table 2. Base cases considered in the scenario analysis

Gas non-condensing Gas condensing Oil / Gas Jet Burner non-condensing Oil / Gas Jet Burner condensing Electric (Joule effect) Hybrid (gas / electric) Electric Heat Pump Gas Heat Pump Micro CHP Solar combi

Boiler > 400 kW

1.3 Report Structure

This Task 7 report contains, after this introductory chapter 1, separate chapters per parameter, i.e. sales, stock, load (demand for space heating), energy efficiency, energy consumption, GHG-emission, user expense, business revenues and jobs. Each of these chapters presents data for the BAU-scenario, the ECO-scenario, and the differences BAU-ECO (savings, change in impacts).

Data for the BAU0-scenario are not discussed in detail, but shown as reference in figures comparing scenario results and included in the detailed tables of Annex A.


2 SALES

Sales data up to 2016 have been taken from the Task 2 report (based on data from BRG). For most base cases, data were available for 1991, 2004, 2014 and 2016. For some base cases an annual time series from 2004 to 2016 could be used. Between 1991 and 2004 data have been interpolated linearly.

Where devices were on the market already before 1990, the annual variation of sales has been derived from the existing Ecodesign Impact Accounting model (not shown in figures below, but relevant for stock calculations).

The total EU-28 sales of space heaters in scope of the study decreased from 7.1 million units in 2004 to 6 mln units in 2014 (Figure 1). This is believed to be due to the economic crisis: less new buildings were constructed and users postponed substitution of old boilers.

For the projection beyond 2016 in the BAU-scenario:

Non-condensing gas and oil boilers are assumed to almost disappear from the market (only some B1-type boilers remain in the analysis; shared-chimney problem);

Sales of condensing gas boilers are assumed to decrease by 33% over the 2016-2050 period;

Sales of gas/electric hybrids, electric heat pumps, gas heat pumps and micro-CHP are assumed to strongly increase from 2016 to 2050.

For other base cases, current sales’ trends were extrapolated. For condensing jet burners this implies that sales slightly increase; electric boiler sales show a small decrease. Sales for solar combis slightly increase over the 2016-2050 period, but quantities remain relatively low.

The proposed measures (Task 6) are expected to further promote the sales of gas/electric hybrids, heat pumps, micro-CHP and solar combis, accelerating the decrease in sales for gas and oil appliances. This is reflected in the sales for the ECO-scenario (Figure 1). The total sales in the BAU- and ECO-scenarios are the same, only the subdivision of the sales over the base cases changes, starting from 2020.


(source: VHK elaboration of BRG data up to 2016; VHK projection 2016-2050)

Figure 1. Annual sales of Space Heating appliances in scope of this study, total for EU-28 in 000 units, for the BAU-scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom).

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sales, BAU (000 units) Boiler >400kW

Solar combi (16 m2)

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sales, ECO (000 units) Boiler >400kW

Solar combi (16 m2)

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond


3 STOCK

The stock is the quantity of space heating appliances that is installed and operating in EU-28. In the analysis methodology, the stock in a given year is calculated as the sum of the sales over lifetime preceding years, i.e. summing the units sold in earlier years that have not yet reached their end-of-life. For example, for a base case that has a 20 year lifetime, the stock in 2010 is the sum of the sales over years 1991-2010.

Some reference data for the stock are available in the Task 2 report, typically for years 2004 and 2014. However, these stock figures are limited to the residential sector (while the scenario analysis should also include tertiary, industry and other sectors), and they are expressed in number of dwellings using a certain type of space heater (while the scenario analysis wants to consider the number of units installed). In addition, a significant number of dwellings is reported to use ‘collective’ heating, but without specifying which type of heater is involved. Hence, the Task 2 stock data were used as reference for the order of magnitude, but without trying to exactly match them.

An average basic lifetime of 18 years has been assumed for modelling purposes for all base cases except oil/gas jet burners (24 years)7 8.

Figure 2 shows the EU-28 total stock of space heating appliances in the scope of this study for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios:

Over the period 1990-2010, the stock strongly increased, from 76 mln units in 1990 to 123 mln in 2010. This is due to e.g. the increase in number of households, a shift from space heaters not in scope of this study to space heaters in scope, and ‘no heating’ households installing a central heating boiler.

Over the period 2010-2050 the stock is assumed to slowly increase, more or less following the (expected) increase in population.

Non-condensing boilers are expected to (almost) disappear from the stock around 2035.

In 2050, in the BAU-scenario, 60% of the stock is still gas boiler or oil/gas jet burner. In the ECO-scenario this share decreases to 35%, due to promoting sales of hybrids, heat pumps, mCHP and solar (see chapter on sales).

7 Working with a single lifetime for all base cases facilitates scenario modelling, i.e. shifting sales between base

cases without modifying the overall stock. 8 As observed in the previous chapter, total EU sales over the period 2004-2014 were declining. If lifetimes are

assumed to be constant over the years, this would also lead to a decline in stock of space heaters in the scope of the study, which is not considered to be realistic. The total user demand for space heaters is not declining, and no shift has been observed, nor is expected, from space heaters in the scope of this study to space heaters not in the scope of this study (e.g. district heating, solid fuel boilers, local space heaters, air heaters, reversible room air conditioners). To avoid a decline in stock, a variable lifetime multiplier has been used, increasing from 1.0 in 2008 to 1.04 in 2025 and then decreasing again to 1.0 in 2040.


(source: VHK scenario analysis 2019)

Figure 2. Stock of Space Heating appliances in scope of this study, total for EU-28 in 000 units, for the BAU-scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom).

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Stock, BAU (000 units) Boiler >400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Stock, ECO (000 units) Boiler >400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond


4 LOAD (HEAT DEMAND)

The load is the user demand for space heating output. The total EU-28 load for year 2014 was derived in the Task 3 report as 2860 TWh/a, subdivided over the usage sectors as shown in Table 3 in column 1 9. A part of this load is provided by devices that are not covered by Ecodesign regulations (see columns 2a, 2b, 2c in the table: 400 TWh for district heating, 280 TWh for industrial steam boilers, waste heat recovery and large CHPs, and 229 TWh for central heating boilers above 400 kW thermal output 10). This leaves a total space heating load of 1951 TWh/a for devices covered by current Ecodesign regulations (column 3).

Of these devices, solid fuel boilers, local heaters, air heaters and reversible room air conditioners have separate regulations and are not covered by this study. Subtracting the loads they represent (see columns 4a, 4b, 4c, 4d in the table 11) leaves 1317 TWh/a (column 5a) for ‘wet’ space heaters covered by regulations 811/2013 (Energy Label) and 813/2013 (Ecodesign). If large central heating boilers of 400-1000 kW are added to the scope (as done in this scenario analysis; one of the policy options of Task 6), the total EU-load for space heating devices in scope of this study is 1546 TWh/a in 2014 (column 5b).

Table 3. Breakdown of the total EU load for space heating (year 2014)

(source: VHK 2019)

EULOAD not covered by ED covered Not covered by this study total wet total wet

TWh/a District ISB, WHR large CHB current SolidFB LocalH AirH RACrev Now in ED incl. also

Total Heating large CHP > 400 kW ED < 400 kW > 400 kW

1 2a 2b 2c 3 4a 4b 4c 4d 5a 5b

Residential 1725 259 0 100 1367 75 174 6 27 1085 1184

Tertiary 666 141 0 100 425 11 46 157 29 182 281

Industry 427 0 280 30 117 7 7 61 3 39 69

Other 43 0 0 0 43 2 10 18 1 12 12

Total 2860 400 280 229 1951 95 238 242 59 1317 1546

Dividing the total EU load for space heaters in scope < 400 kW by the stock in 2014, the average unit load is 10500 kWh/a. This unit load has been assigned to all base cases < 400 kW 12. A similar calculation for boilers between 400 and 1000 kW leads to a unit load of 354,000 kWh/a.

The average unit heat demand is expected to decrease by 0.85% per year due to the reduction of thermal losses of buildings. As a result, due to parallel increasing population

9 Sector subdivision slightly changed compared to Task 3, distinguishing also the ‘other’ sector (e.g.

agriculture, forestry, fishing) 10 Compared to Task 3, estimates slightly changed for the derivation made here. 11 Data taken from the Ecodesign Impact Accounting report 2017 12 Working with a single unit load for all base cases facilitates scenario modelling, i.e. shifting sales between

base cases without modifying the unit load and overall EU-load.


and request for comfort, the total EU-28 space heating demand is projected to decrease by 0.35% per year 13.

Unit loads are the same for the BAU- and ECO-scenario, meaning that the annual load reduction is considered to be an external factor, not influenced by Ecodesign and Energy Labelling regulations 14.

Multiplying the unit loads by the corresponding stocks, the total EU-28 space heating load for appliances in scope of this study is obtained, see Figure 3.

13 Source: ‘Average EU building heat load for HVAC equipment’, VHK for the European Commission, August

2014, section 7.2. This is a balance of an increase in demand due to more households, higher average floor area per dwelling, and more comfort, and a decrease in demand due to improved thermal insulation and reduction of ventilation losses.

14 In the Ecodesign Impact Accounting, where the total change in impacts due to all ED- and EL-regulations is assessed, the modelling in the ECO scenario considers the effect of improved heat recovery by Ventilation Units on the reduction of the space heating load. However, in this study on space heaters it has been preferred not to mix improvements due to Ventilation Units with improvements in the space heaters themselves.



Figure 3. EU-28 total space heating load (user demand for heat output) in TWh/a, for appliances in scope of this study, for the BAU-scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom).

Considering that the unit load is identical for all base cases < 400 kW, their shares in the total EU-load are the same as their shares in the stock (Figure 2). The only exception are boilers > 400 kW (much higher unit load), which represent only 0.4% of the stock, but 13% of the EU-load.

Starting from 2010 the total EU-load for central heating boilers is decreasing, while the stock continues to slightly increase. This is due to the assumed annual decrease in unit load (see above).

Before year 2010 the EU-load is lower than in 2010 because the stock of appliances is lower (the unit load per appliance is higher in these years).

Figure 4 presents the total EU space heating demand for all space heaters, including those not in scope of the current study. The EU-load for Central Heating Boilers (1496 TWh/a in 2014) is compatible with the overall 2860 TWh/a derived in Task 3.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh heat/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, EULOAD BAUBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh heat/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, EULOAD ECOBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond



This graph combines the BAU-scenario for Central Heating Boilers of this study with data from the Ecodesign Impact Accounting 2018 (EIA) for the BAU-scenario of Solid Fuel Boilers, Local Heaters, Central Air Heaters and reversible Air Conditioners, and with Task 3 estimates for the contributions of District Heating, Industrial Steam Boilers, Waste Heat recovery systems, and large CHPs. (Note: EIA not updated yet for some of the more recent review studies on e.g. Local Heaters and Air Conditioners)

Figure 4. EU-28 total space heating load (user demand for heat output) in TWh/a, for all types of space heaters.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

350019

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

1020

1220

1420

1620

1820

2020

2220

2420

2620

2820

3020

3220

3420

3620

3820

4020

4220

4420

4620

4820

50

EU-Load, All space heaters, in TWh/a

Industry SB, CHP, WHR

District Heating

Reversible Air Conditioners

Central Air Heaters

Local Heaters

Solid Fuel Boilers

CH Boilers 400-1000 kW

CH Boilers < 400 kW


5 ENERGY EFFICIENCY

The efficiencies used in the model are primary energy efficiencies, i.e. representing the heat output divided by the Gross Calorific Value (GCV) of the primary energy input. Where the input to the space heater is (partly) electric, a PEF = 2.1 has been used to convert electricity to primary energy 15. The efficiencies include electricity consumption by auxiliaries, but excluding the circulator pump(s). For heat pumps, mCHP and solar devices, the efficiencies include the supplementary heater. In line with the findings of Task 4, real-life efficiencies are used in the analysis.

The base case efficiencies (of products sold in a given year) have been determined considering information from the preceding task reports (in particular Task 4), from the 2013 Impact Assessment report 16, from the 2007 preparatory study 17, and from study team research on recent products and trends. Tables with average sales efficiencies for the various years, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios, are included in Annex A. A short discussion for each base case follows below:

- Gas non-condensing: efficiency 70% in 1990, increasing to 74% in 2015 due to current regulations (BAU) and no further improvement. Same value in ECO.

- Gas condensing: efficiency 80% in 1990, increasing to 84% in 2010, with further increase to 88% in 2015 due to current regulations (BAU) and no further improvement. Same value in ECO.

- Jet non-condensing: efficiency 65% in 1990, increasing to 72% in 2015 due to current regulations (BAU) and no further improvement. Same value in ECO.

- Jet condensing: efficiency 80% in 1990, increasing to 81% in 2010, with further increase to 88% in 2015 due to current regulations (BAU) and no further improvement. Same value in ECO.

- Electric (Joule): efficiency 35% in 1990, increasing to 40.5% in 2010, with further increase to 43% in 2015 due to current regulations (BAU) and no further improvement. Same value in ECO. Note: based on PEF = 2.1.

- Hybrid gas/electric: efficiency 110% in 2015, increasing in BAU to 123% in 2020 and 131% in 2050 18. Same value in ECO.

- Electric heat pump (+backup): efficiency 125% in 2015, increasing in BAU to 157% in 2020 and 172% in 2050 19. Same value in ECO.

15 For purposes of expressing the efficiencies, it has been preferred to use the same Primary Energy Factor for

all years, to avoid mixing changes in efficiencies of the space heaters with changes in efficiency of the electricity generation and distribution.

16 COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT, Impact Assessment, Accompanying the document ‘Commission Regulations implementing Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to ecodesign requirements for space heaters and combination heaters’ and ‘supplementing Directive 2010/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to energy labelling for space heaters, combination heaters, packages of space heater, temperature control and solar device and packages of combination heater, temperature control and solar device’, swd_2013_297.

17 Preparatory study on ECO-design of CH Boilers, VHK for the European Commission DG TREN Unit D3, September 2007

18 The 123% assumes that the heat pump covers 70% of the heat demand, using 85% gas efficiency (no full condensing in cold conditions) and 155% heat pump efficiency. Electric share in primary energy is then around 0.6. Further increase due to improvements in the heat pump and increase in the share of load covered by the heat pump.


- Gas heat pump (+backup): efficiency 130% in 2015, increasing in BAU to 145% in 2020 and 160% in 2050 20. Same value in ECO.

- Micro-CHP (+ backup): efficiency 110% in 2015, increasing in BAU to 120% in 2020 and 145% in 2050 21. Same value in ECO.

- Solar combi (+ backup): efficiency 82% in 1990, increasing to 99% in 2010. Further increase in BAU to 178% in 2050 and in ECO to 208% in 2050 (temporary values, see note) 22.

- Boiler > 400 kW: efficiency 65% in BAU, increasing from 2020 in ECO, reaching 144% by 2050 23.

For most base cases (except solar and boilers > 400 kW) efficiencies are the same for the BAU- and ECO-scenario. Energy savings (BAU minus ECO) then result from a shift in sales from lower-efficiency base cases to higher-efficiency base cases.

For use in energy calculations, the scenario analysis does not use the above average efficiencies of products sold in a given year, but the average efficiency of the stock in a given year. The stock average efficiency is computed as the sales-weighted average over the efficiencies of products sold in lifetime preceding years (same method as used in the Ecodesign Impact Accounting).

19 These are weighted average values for ASHP, GSHP and VSHP. The large majority are ASHP for which VHK

estimate for existing housing is 104%, for new housing 128%, average 116% @ PEF 2.5 => 138% @ PEF 2.1. For GSHP and VSHP efficiency is higher => 157%. Further increase due to improvements in the HP itself, increase in the share of load covered by the HP, and increase in the share of GSHP and VSHP.

20 These are weighted average values for sorption type and engine type. Majority are sorption type, for which recent models on the market declare 157%. This is too optimistic as average real-life efficiency, but taken as BAT reference for 2050 (rounded to 160%). (ref.: https://www.robur.com/heat_pumps/gas_absorption_heat_pump_for_homes_k18).

21 Weighted average values for e.g. Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Stirling and Fuel Cells. For CHP efficiency estimate in 2015 considered 1 kW electric output, 10 kW total heat demand, backup eta 88%, eta elec ref 40%, eta thermal ref 90%. ICE: etaelec 25%, etath 67%, PES= =1-(1/((etath/etathref)+(etaelec/etaelecref)))= 27%, corrected etath =etathref/(1-PES)= 123%; Pth=1/etalec*etath=2.68 kW, Share Pth 2.68/10 = 0.27, fraction with CHP eff 0.69 (from regulation lookup table); overall thermal efficiency including backup: =1/(0.69/123%+(1-0.69)/88%) =109% Stirling: etaelec 15%, etath 75%, PES= =1-(1/((etath/etathref)+(etaelec/etaelecref)))= 17%, corrected etath =etathref/(1-PES)= 109%; Pth=1/etalec*etath=5 kW, Share Pth 5/10 = 0.5, fraction with CHP eff 0.95 (from regulation lookup table); overall thermal efficiency including backup: =1/(0.95/109%+(1-0.95)/88%)=107% Fuel Cell: etaelec 40%, etath 55%, PES= =1-(1/((etath/etathref)+(etaelec/etaelecref)))= 38%, corrected etath =etathref/(1-PES)= 145%; Pth=1/etalec*etath=1.38 kW, Share Pth 1.38/10 = 0.14, fraction with CHP eff 0.39 (from regulation lookup table); overall thermal efficiency including backup: =1/(0.39/145%+(1-0.39)/88%) =104% Rounded overall value to 110% in 2015. In later years, improvements in mCHP efficiency, improvements in avg. efficiency of backup heaters, changes in share of load covered by mCHP.

22 The efficiencies for solar are based on a proposal by Solar Heat Europe (ESTIF): ‘Proposal for Simplified Method for Solar Thermal’, June 2019, and underlying preliminary information delivered to the study team. According to this proposal, the efficiency of the combination solar+backup is determined as backup heater efficiency multiplied by an improvement factor. This factor depends on the ratio between Annual Collector Output and total Heat load to be covered by the combination. For a 16 m2 solar combi with average output 376-463 kWh/m²/a, the improvement factor varies from 1.2 to 1.4. The average efficiency of non-solar devices is considered as efficiency of the backup heater. This efficiency increases with the years and differs between scenarios.

23 The 65% is the same as the efficiency for Jet Burners in early years. Boilers > 400 kW are not covered by the regulations, so no improvement is assumed in BAU. ECO-scenario assumes that these boilers will be included in the revised regulation and that oil jet burners will gradually be replaced by hybrid, heat pump, CHP, solar with higher efficiency. Note that boilers > 400 kW is a base case including all technologies.


6 ENERGY

For each base case, the primary energy of the total EU stock is calculated as:

10-6 * Unit Load (kWh/a) * Stock (000 units) / Average stock efficiency (TWh/a)

The electricity consumption is calculated as:

Electricity = Primary Energy * Share electric / PEF used in efficiency

The fuel consumption is calculated as:

Fuel = Primary Energy * (1 – Share electric)

If, for the final calculation of primary energy, a PEF different from the one used to determine the efficiencies is desired (optionally varying with the years), the Primary Energy is recalculated as:

Fuel + Electricity * PEF

For the primary energy results presented in this report, a PEF 2.1 is used for all years.

The ‘share electric’ (identical for all years) is taken as:

- gas boilers and oil/gas jet burners: 4% - electric boilers: 100% - hybrids: 60% 24 - electric heat pumps: 100% - gas heat pumps: 4% - mCHP: 4% - solar combi 10% 25 - boiler > 400 kW 6%

Figure 5 shows the EU-28 total final fuel consumption 26 by space heaters in scope of this study, cumulative per base case, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. Figure 6 compares the total final fuel for the scenarios (including also the BAU0 scenario for reference).

A peak fuel consumption of 2037 TWh/a appears in 2006. This consumption decreases to 1859 TWh in 2016 and then further reduces, in the BAU-scenario, to 1429 TWh in 2030 (-23% compared to 2016) and 973 TWh in 2050 (-48%). The decrease in fuel consumption is due to a decrease in heat demand and to a shift in sales towards space heaters with higher energy efficiency and/or using electricity instead of fuel.

24 Assumes that 70% of the annual heat load is covered by the heat pump with efficiency 155% and 30% of

the load by the gas boiler with efficiency 85%. Overall efficiency is then 123% and share electric in primary energy 60%.

25 This is the assumed share electric of the backup heater. 26 This does not include the primary fuel used for the generation of electricity.


In the ECO-scenario, the fuel consumption further reduces to 1340 TWh in 2030 (-28% compared to 2016) and 632 TWh in 2050 (-66%).

The fuel savings (BAU minus ECO) due to proposed ECO measures are 89 TWh in 2030 (-6% compared to BAU 2030) and 341 TWh in 2050 (-35% compared to BAU 2050). More than one-third of these savings derives from efficiency improvements on boilers > 400 kW, underlining the importance to include these boilers in the scope.

Figure 7 shows the EU-28 total electricity consumption by space heaters in scope of this study, cumulative per base case, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. Figure 8 compares the total electricity for the scenarios (including also the BAU0 scenario for reference).

In 2016 the electricity consumption is 69 TWh/a. In the BAU-scenario this increases to 86 TWh in 2030 (+24% compared to 2016) and 136 TWh in 2050 (+96%). The increase in electricity consumption is due to a shift in sales from space heaters using gas and oil towards space heaters using electricity (hybrids, heat pumps).

In the ECO-scenario, the electricity further increases to 91 TWh in 2030 (+31% compared to 2016) and 177 TWh in 2050 (+156%). This is due to an accelerated shift in sales towards hybrids and heat pumps.

The additional electricity consumption (ECO minus BAU) due to proposed ECO measures are 5 TWh in 2030 (+6% compared to BAU 2030) and 41 TWh in 2050 (+30% compared to BAU 2050).

Figure 9 shows the EU-28 total primary energy consumption by space heaters in scope of this study, per base case, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. Figure 10 compares the total consumptions for the scenarios (including also the BAU0 scenario for reference).

In 2016 the primary energy consumption by space heaters in scope of this study is 2004 TWh/a, of which 1859 TWh/a fuel and 69* PEF 2.1= 145 TWh/a primary energy for electricity. Considering the total heat output of 1481 TWh/a, the average boiler efficiency is 74%.

In the same year, 15% of the energy is consumed by 400-1000 kW heaters, although these heaters occupy only 0.4% of the stock. It is therefore recommended to add the 400-1000 kW devices to the scope of the regulations.

In 2030, in the BAU scenario, the primary energy decreases to 1610 TWh/a, of which 1429 TWh/a fuel and 86* PEF 2.1= 181 TWh/a primary energy for electricity. The load-weighted average boiler efficiency is 85%.

In 2050, in the BAU scenario, the primary energy further decreases to 1259 TWh/a, of which 973 TWh/a fuel and 136* PEF 2.1= 286 TWh/a primary energy for electricity. The load-weighted average boiler efficiency is 97%.

In the ECO-scenario, the 2050 primary energy can be reduced to 1004 TWh/a, a saving of 255 TWh/a (20%). This saving is the balance of using 341 TWh less fuel and 86 TWh more primary energy for electricity.



Figure 5. EU-28 total final fuel consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO scenario (bottom), in TWh GCV/a.


Figure 6. EU-28 total final fuel consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in TWh GCV/a.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh fuel/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, FUEL BAUBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh fuel/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, FUEL ECOBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

1340

947632

17421429

1167

973

18491949

20041927

1799

16101477

1357

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh fuel /a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, Scenario comparison, Fuel

ECO

BAU

BAU0



Figure 7. EU-28 total electricity consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO scenario (bottom), in TWh/a.


Figure 8. EU-28 total electricity consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in TWh/a.

0

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40

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh elec/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, ELECTRICITY BAUBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

0

20

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80

100

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh elec/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, ELECTRICITY ECOBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

91

133

177

72 86

111

136

55 5766 68 73 75 75 78

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh elec /a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, Scenario comparison, Electricity

ECO

BAU

BAU0



PEF=2.1 considered for electricity, for all years

Figure 9. EU-28 total primary energy consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO scenario (bottom), in TWh GCV/a.


Values in TWh GCV/a, using PEF=2.1 for electricity

Figure 10. EU-28 total primary energy consumed by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh primary/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, PRIMARY ENERGY BAUBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh primary/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, PRIMARY ENERGY ECOBoiler > 400kW

Solar combi

mCHP

Gas HP

Elec HP

Hybrid

Elec Joule

Jet cond

Jet non-cond

Gas cond

Gas non-cond

1531

1227

1004

1894

1610

14011259

19632068

21432070

1952

17681621

1524

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh primary /a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, Scenario comparison, Primary Energy

ECO

BAU

BAU0


Comparison with Eurostat

Eurostat data for 2016 indicate a final fuel consumption (gas and petroleum products) for residential space heating of 1236 TWh NCV 27. In the current scenario analysis the fuel consumption by residential central heating boilers in 2016 is 1310 TWh NCV 28, and thus close to the Eurostat estimate.

Eurostat data for 2016 indicate an electricity consumption for residential space heating of 118 TWh. This electricity is mainly consumed by Central Air Heaters, Local Heaters and reversible Air Conditioners, and thus not easily comparable to the electricity for Central Heating Boilers derived in this study.

27 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-

explained/index.php/Energy_consumption_in_households#Source_data_for_tables_and_figures_.28MS_Excel.29 ; Eurostat values are in Net Calorific Value, NCV

28 The overall fuel consumption for space/combination heaters in scope of this study is 1859 TWh in 2016. This value is in Gross Calorific Value (GCV) and converts to 1692 TWh NCV (75% of the fuel is gas, with NCV-to-GCV conversion factor 1.11; 25% is oil with conversion factor 1.065). The residential share of this consumption is estimated to be 76% (82% for boilers < 400 kW; 44% for boilers > 400 kW), corresponding to 1310 TWh NCV. The residential (non-solid) fuel consumption by other types of space heaters is low: 3 TWh for Central Air Heaters and 12 TWh for Local heaters (source: Ecodesign Impact Accounting 2018).


7 GHG EMISSIONS

The EU-28 total greenhouse gas emissions are computed as the sum of:

Electricity consumption * GWPelec Fuel consumption * GWPfuel Stock (year) * Annual refrigerant loss * GWPrefrigerant Sales (year – lifetime) * End-of-life refrigerant loss * GWPrefrigerant.

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) for electricity up to year 2020 has been taken from the 2017 Ecodesign Impact Accounting (EIA). For year 2050 a value of 0.108 kgCO2eq/kWh has been projected, based on an 80% share of renewables in that year 29. A linear interpolation was performed between the 2020 and 2050 values. The GWPelec values decrease over the years, from 0.50 kgCO2eq/kWh in 1990, to 0.41 in 2010, 0.38 in 2020, 0.29 in 2030 and 0.108 in 2050.

GWPfuel depends on the type of fuel consumed. Values in kgCO2eq/kWh for natural gas and heating oil are identical to those used in EIA. For hydrogen and biofuel a GWP of zero has been assumed 30. Following suggestions by stakeholders 31, a GWP of 0.15 is now used for biogas. In the model, these GWP values are constant over the years:

- GWPgas 0.198 - GWPoil 0.270 - GWPbiogas 0.15 - GWPbiofuel 0.0 - GWPhydrogen 0.0

As regards the shares of fuel being used in a given year, the model assumes that:

Jet burners use 85% oil and 15% gas. The share of biogas used in gas-based heaters increases from 0% in 2017 to 9% in

2050 32. This is the same for BAU- and ECO-scenarios. The share of biofuel used in oil-based heaters increases from 0% in 2017 to 7% in

2050 32. This is the same for BAU- and ECO-scenarios.

29 In 2020 the EIA value is 0.38 kgCO2eq/kWh based on a 30% share of renewables (with GWP=0). Without

these renewables the GWPelec in 2020 would have been 0.38/0.7=0.54. Assuming 80% renewables in 2050 the value becomes 0.54*0.2 = 0.108.

30 The study team is aware that the real value is probably non-zero, even if small, but no agreed data were found. Especially for future years (2040-2050), any GWP value for hydrogen would be disputable, it has therefore been preferred, for clarity, to set the value to zero.

31 In its comments on the draft version of this report, the German UBA suggested a value of 0.15 kgCO2eq/kWh. This value includes considerations on land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). In this moment it is the only value available to the study team and thus has been inserted in the model. UBA also suggested to use higher values for gas (0.247) and oil (0.318). The difference with the values used in EIA seems to derive from including more emissions from mining and transport. The study team preferred to maintain the EIA data for the scenario modelling; similar values (0.202, 0.267) have also been used in a recent Ecofys report.

32 This is based on the assumption that the share of sales of gas/oil appliances that is suitable for running on 100% biogas or 100% biofuel increases from 0% in 2017 to 10% in 2040. Using stock calculations, this means that in 2050 9% of the gas-stock is suitable for biogas and 7% of the oil-stock for biofuel. Shares in fuel use are set identical to these shares in the stock. This can also be interpreted as on average 9% biogas being mixed in natural gas and on average 7% biofuel being mixed in heating oil, in 2050.


In the BAU-scenario, as requested by stakeholders, it is now assumed that hydrogen will be mixed into natural gas. The share of hydrogen is assumed to increase linearly from 0% in 2020 to 30% in 2040, and then to 35% in 2050.

In the ECO-scenario, until 2040, the same mix of hydrogen and natural gas is used as in the BAU-scenario. It is further assumed that starting from 2025 all sold gas-based heaters have to be H2-ready (i.e. suitable for running on 100% hydrogen; one of the policy proposals of Task 6). Performing stock calculations, this means that in 2040 79% of the gas-stock is H2-ready, increasing to 91% in 2050 (the remaining 9% would be biogas). In the ECO-scenario, from 2040, this share of the stock is assumed to use 100% hydrogen instead of the mix of hydrogen and natural gas.

Refrigerant losses per appliance (in kg/unit, annual and at end-of-life) have been derived in Task 5. The reference refrigerant is R-410A with a GWP of 2088 kgCO2eq/kg refrigerant. The annual losses per unit (due to leakage) are multiplied by the stock. The end-of-life losses per unit are multiplied by the number of units that reach their end-of-life in the year considered. Refrigerant losses are considered for hybrids and for heat pumps as shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Refrigerant losses, per year and at end-of-life, for hybrids and heat pumps.

Values based on use of R-410A type refrigerant. These values are used until year 2015. Lower values are applied in later years, see text.

Gas/electric Hybrid Electric Heat Pump Gas Heat Pump33 engine / sorption

kgCO2eq/kg refrigerant 2088 2088 2088 / 0 Charge in kg/unit 2.8 3.9 12 / 2.4 Annual losses Annual loss in % 2.5% 2.5% 0.5% / 0.5% kgCO2eq/unit/a 144 202 125 / 0 => 10 End-of-Life losses EoL residual charge 67% 67% 80% EoL recovered 50% 50% 50% EoL kgCO2eq/unit 3829 5371 15034 / 0 => 1203

Following Stakeholder comments on the draft version of this report, an annual decrease of refrigerant-emissions due to the F-gas regulation is now considered in the scenario modelling. The values shown in the table are applied until year 2015. In year 2030 values are assumed to reduce to 50% of the table values, and in 2050 to 25% 34. Linear interpolation has been applied in intermediate years.

Figure 11 shows the EU-28 total GHG-emissions due to operating space heaters in scope of this study, cumulative per base case, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. Figure 12 compares the total emissions for the scenarios (including also the BAU0 scenario for reference).

33 For sorption-type gas heat pumps using ammonia, the GWP is set to zero. For engine-type gas heat pumps

the R-410A reference refrigerant is used. Fast majority are sorption HP, estimated 92%. 34 Stakeholder ECOS-EEB estimated for 2030 that using a mix of R32, R290, R454B, R454C the average

refrigerant GWP could be reduced to 15% of 2088 kgCO2eq/kg refrigerant. If 20% of the refrigerants used would remain R-410A, the GWP would anyway reduce to 32% of 2088. Additional 50% reduction could be obtained due to improved leakage tightness and improved recovery at end-of-life. These values are interpreted to be valid as average of new sold products. Stock average will go down more slowly, and therefore the study team implemented a less optimistic approach than suggested by ECOS.


In 2016 the GHG-emissions amount to 429 MtCO2eq/a. In the BAU-scenario, this decreases to 297 MtCO2eq/a in 2030 (-31% compared to 2016) and 173 MtCO2eq/a in 2050 (-60%). The decrease is due to a decrease in fuel consumption, and to using a mix of hydrogen and natural gas.

In the ECO-scenario, the GHG-emissions further decrease to 279 MtCO2eq/a in 2030 (-35% compared to 2016) and 67 MtCO2eq/a in 2050 (-84%). The large decrease in emissions in 2040-2050 is due to substituting natural gas by 100% hydrogen in all gas-based appliances. This reduction can only be obtained if starting from 2025 all sold gas-based space heaters are required to be H2-ready (one of the policy options of Task 6).

The reduction in GHG-emissions (BAU minus ECO) due to proposed ECO measures are 18 MtCO2eq/a in 2030 (-6% compared to BAU 2030) and 106 MtCO2eq/a in 2050 (-61% compared to BAU 2050).

Figure 13 provides the subdivision of GHG-emissions due to electricity, gaseous fuel, liquid fuel, and refrigerant losses. The contribution of refrigerant losses is negligible. The contribution deriving from electricity is small: the increase in electricity consumption is compensated by the decrease in GWP for electricity.



Figure 11. EU-28 total GHG-emissions by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom), in MtCO2eq/a.


Figure 12. EU-28 total GHG-emissions by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in MtCO2eq/a.

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MtCO2eq/a Central Heating Boiler, Space Heating, GHG EMISSIONS BAUBoiler > 400kW

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ECO

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Figure 13. EU-28 total GHG-emissions by space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO-scenarios, subdivided by origin, in MtCO2eq/a.

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due to LiquidFuels

due to Gaseousfuels

due toElectricity


8 USER EXPENSE

The total user expense for space heating is the sum of acquisition costs (purchase and installation), energy costs and maintenance costs.

All monetary data are provided in 2015 euros, and include 20% VAT for the residential sector. For base cases < 400 kW, the residential share is estimated to be 82%, leading to an average % VAT in the acquisition prices of 16.4%. For boilers > 400 kW the residential share is taken 44%, leading to average % VAT of 8.8%.

Acquisition:

Acquisition costs are computed as unit price multiplied by the number of units sold.

Table 5 provides the unit prices assumed for the base cases, including the indicated share of installation costs, and including the average % VAT. These prices are based on the information in the Task 2 report (tables 21 and 24).

As most space heaters are also being used for water heating, the acquisition costs have to be divided over the two functions. Based on the load shares (approximately 10000 kWh/a for SH and 2000 kWh/a for WH), 84% of the price of combis is assigned to the space heating function and 16% to the water heating function. Table 5 already reflects the 84% share.

Table 5. Acquisition prices per unit.

Installation share included in the price, Average % VAT included in the price, and maintenance cost per year.

Prices in 2015 euros.

Unit Price (€) Share Install Average %VAT Maintenance cost (€/a) Gas non-cond 1834 0.44 16% 149 Gas cond 2304 0.50 16% 153 Jet non-cond 10273 0.52 16% 224 Jet cond 11251 0.57 16% 190 Elec Joule 2148 0.43 16% 45 Hybrid 8255 0.56 16% 148 Elec HP 9822 0.60 16% 72 Gas HP 13679 0.51 16% 167 mCHP 27961 0.56 16% 246 Solar combi 11803 0.50 16% 68 Boiler > 400 kW @ 65% 149300

0.53 9% 972 Boiler > 400 kW @ 172% 379000

For base cases < 400 kW the price is assumed to be constant over the years: there is no change in efficiency from BAU to ECO 35.

For boilers > 400 kW the base case includes all technologies, and the ECO-scenario assumes a strong increase in efficiency (shift from jet burners to e.g. hybrids, heat

35 In addition, the experience with (non-)condensing boilers shows that for space heaters there is no clear

relation between price and efficiency. The effect of quantities sold has a larger impact.


pumps, CHP, solar). For this base case the price is assumed to be a function of efficiency, passing from 149,300 euros at 65% (jet burner) to 379,000 euros at 172% (large heat pump, ref. Task 5).

Energy costs:

Energy costs are computed as energy rate (€/kWh) multiplied by the amount of energy consumed (kWh).

Energy rates differ per type of energy (electricity, gas, oil), per usage sector (residential, tertiary, industry, other), and per year. The scenario analysis uses the same rates as in the Ecodesign Impact Accounting 2018. Until 2017 these rates are based on data from Eurostat (electricity, natural gas) and from the Oil Bulletin 36 (heating oil), inflation corrected to euros 2015.

Residential rates include taxes and levies (20% VAT assumed). Non-residential rates (industry, services, other sector) exclude VAT and other recoverable taxes and levies. For base cases < 400 kW, 82% residential, 14% tertiary, 3% industry and 1% other sector is used. For boilers > 400 kW: 43.5% residential, 43.5% tertiary, 13% industry and 0% other sector.

From 2017 onwards the projection for energy rates closely follows the PRIMES 2015 reference scenario, applying a 1%/a increase for electricity rates and 1.5%/a for gas and oil.

For biogas and hydrogen the same rate is used as for natural gas. For biofuel the same rate is used as for heating oil.

See Annex A, section on Energy Costs, for a table with the energy rates.

Maintenance costs:

Maintenance costs are computed as annual unit costs for maintenance and repair (€/a) multiplied by the installed stock of space heaters.

Annual unit maintenance and repair costs are based on information from Task 5 and reported in the last column of Table 5. Similar to the unit prices, these costs are also partitioned 84%/16% over SH/WH.

Results:

Figure 14 shows the EU-28 total acquisition costs (purchase and installation) for space heaters in scope of this study, cumulative per base case, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. Figure 15 compares the total acquisition costs for the scenarios (including also the BAU0 scenario for reference).

In 2005 the acquisition costs amounted to 30 bn euros/a. Due to the reduction in sales (chapter 2) this decreased to 24 bn euros in 2016. In the BAU-scenario, the acquisition costs increase to 37 bn euros in 2030 (+53% compared to 2016) and 56 bn in 2050 36 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/weekly-oil-bulletin


(+130%). This increase is due to a shift in sales from on average cheaper gas and oil appliances to on average more expensive hybrids, heat pumps, mCHP and solar combis.

In the ECO-scenario, the increase in acquisition costs is higher than in BAU due to an accelerated shift of sales towards hybrids, heat pumps, mCHP and solar combis. The ECO acquisition costs are 44 bn euros in 2030 (+19% compared to BAU 2030) and 76 bn in 2050 (+36%).

Figure 16 shows the EU-28 total energy costs for space heaters in scope of this study, cumulative per base case, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios. Figure 17 compares the total energy costs for the scenarios (including also the BAU0 scenario for reference).

Until 2016, energy costs go up and down, with a peak of 165 bn euros/a in 2012. This is due to variations in the energy rates. In the BAU-scenario after 2016, energy costs show little variation with the years, first decreasing from 131 bn euros in 2016, to 129 bn in 2030, and then increasing to 138 bn in 2050. This is a balance of an increase in stock, an increase in energy rates, and a decrease in energy consumption due to improved average energy efficiency.

In the ECO-scenario, where the increase in energy efficiency is higher, the energy costs decrease to 123 bn euros in 2030 (-5% compared to BAU 2030) and 113 bn in 2050 (-18%).

Maintenance costs are around 20 bn euros per year and almost the same for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios (no figure provided, see table in Annex A).

As a result, the total user expense (acquisition + energy + maintenance) had a peak of 210 bn euros around 2012 (Figure 18), decreasing to 173 bn in 2017 due to lower sales and lower energy rates. In the BAU-scenario the expenses increase to 186 bn euros in 2030 (+7% compared to 2017) and 211 bn in 2050 (+20%).

In the ECO scenario, user expenses initially increase slightly more than in BAU, reaching 187 bn euros in 2030 (+0.7% compared to BAU 2030), but on the long term the additional decrease in energy consumption pays back the investment in higher-efficiency space heaters. In 2050, user expenses in the ECO-scenario are 206 bn euros (-5 bn euros, -2.5% compared to BAU 2050). This is the balance of 20 bn euros additional acquisition costs and 25 bn euros of savings on energy costs.



Figure 14. EU-28 total Acquisition costs for space heaters in scope of the study, in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom), in bn euros 2015/a.


Figure 15. EU-28 total Acquisition costs for space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in bn euros 2015/a.

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Figure 16. EU-28 total Energy costs for space heaters in scope of the study, in the BAU scenario (top) and the ECO-scenario (bottom), in bn euros 2015/a.


Figure 17. EU-28 total Energy costs for space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in bn euros 2015/a.

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Figure 18. EU-28 total User Expense for acquisition and operation of space heaters in scope of the study in the BAU- and ECO- scenarios. BAU0 scenario (without any regulation) also indicated for reference, in bn euros 2015/a.

187 195206

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9 BUSINESS REVENUES AND JOBS

For purposes of business revenue calculations, the unit price excl. installation (previous chapter) is split as 15% retail, 15% wholesale and 56% industry (for boilers > 400 kW this is 62%) (rest is VAT). This share of the price is multiplied by the sales in a given year.

For revenues of installers, the share of the unit price indicated in Table 5 is used, but removing VAT. This share of the price is multiplied by the sales in a given year.

For maintenance revenues, the annual unit costs indicated in Table 5 are used, but removing VAT. These unit costs are multiplied by the stock in a given year.

The quantity of jobs associated with the revenues is determined dividing them by a revenue per employee. The values for the latter (in million 2015-euros of sector revenue per employee) are taken from the Ecodesign Impact Accounting 2018 37:

Manufacturing: 0.054 Wholesale: 0.270 Retail: 0.065 Installation: 0.108 Maintenance: 0.108

37 This covers only direct jobs. Manufacturing: 0.162 m euro/employee ±10%. It is assumed that associated

OEM jobs and Service jobs are each of the same order of magnitude. Including also these jobs the figure reduces to 0.054 m euro/employee, which is the quantity used. No distinction is made if these jobs are inside or outside EU-28.


Table 6 summarizes the scenario results for business revenues and associated direct jobs. In 2020, business revenues related to space heating products in scope, sold and used in EU-28, amount to 41.6 bn euros, of which industry revenue 7.5 bn (18%), wholesale and retail together 4 bn (10%), installation 12.9 bn (31%) and maintenance 17.3 bn euros (42%). These revenues indicate 456,000 associated jobs (worldwide, not necessarily in EU-28).

In the BAU-scenario the total business revenues are projected to increase in 2030 to 48.6 bn euros and 539,000 jobs, and in 2050 to 63.5 bn euros and 716,000 jobs. In the ECO-scenario in 2050, revenues are projected to further increase by 16.8 bn euros, creating 200 thousand additional jobs, mainly in industry and in installation.


Table 6: Summary of scenario results for revenues and jobs, for years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, for the BAU- and ECO-scenarios.

(inc = increment, BAU-ECO; negative values indicate a reduction in ECO; positive values an addition in ECO. Source: VHK analysis 2019)

Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating unit 2020 2030 2040 2050 Sales '000 6,825 7,112 7,365 7,603 Stock '000 126,960 128,614 130,490 135,000

Scenario BAU BAU ECO inc BAU ECO inc BAU ECO inc

Acquisition costs (incl. install) bn € 28 37 44 7 46 60 14 56 76 20 Revenue Industry m € 7512 9475 11276 1801 11434 14886 3452 13551 18528 4977 Revenue Wholesale m € 1982 2510 2981 472 3036 3947 912 3604 4923 1319 Revenue Retail m € 1982 2510 2981 472 3036 3947 912 3604 4923 1319 Revenue Installation m € 13031 17742 21243 3500 22403 29261 6858 27433 37434 10001 Revenue Maintenance (excl. VAT) m € 17302 16587 16502 -85 15746 15382 -364 15290 14462 -827 Jobs Industry (⅓), OEM (⅓) & services (⅓) '000 jobs 139 175 209 33 212 276 64 251 343 92 Jobs Wholesale '000 jobs 7 9 11 2 11 15 3 13 18 5 Jobs Retail/ installation/ maintenance '000 jobs 311 357 396 39 400 474 74 451 557 105 Jobs Total '000 jobs 458 541 615 74 623 765 142 716 918 202


10 STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS

This chapter addresses the major comments made by stakeholders on the draft version of the Task 7 report:

ANEC/BUEC: From our perspective, we do expect the share of district heating and small-scale collective heating to increase. Many options for heating without using fossil fuels that also avoid a tremendous increase of the burden on the electricity grid are now seriously considered in member states. This includes geothermal energy, using thermal energy of surface water, etc. When used, all these options have in common that homes are heated without individual heating appliances.

Response: Available data show that the share of District Heating (DH) and Collective systems (CS) in the total of Space Heating has been more or less constant (see e.g. Task 2 Table 3). There are cases where DH and CS are introduced, but there are also cases, especially in Eastern Europe, where DH is abandoned in favour of individual systems, or where households with local heaters or ‘no heating’ switch to central heating boilers. Overall, a slight increase in total stock of CH Boilers is expected, as implemented in the model.

ANEC/BUEC: The report assumes a 0.9% decrease (in the load) a year because of better insulation of buildings. At the same time, we observe that the difference of comfort when heating with a heat pump compared to heating with a fuel boiler (continuous heating instead of applying a night setback) slightly increases the load. So does the trend towards smaller (and therefore more) households in many member states. The study team should take this into account.

Response: The 0.9% was derived in the report on ‘EU Building Heat Demand’ and already takes into account comfort as a factor, see footnote 13.

ANEC/BUEC: Do not agree with the assumptions underlying the efficiency of hybrids: part of load covered by HP should be larger than 50%. Efficiency of 92% for gas is too high: boiler will not be condensing in the cold circumstances when it is used. Electric share of 33% is too low.

Response: This has been changed: 70% HP share, 85% gas efficiency, 0.6 electricity share, see footnote 18.

ANEC/BUEC and JRAIA: Heat pump efficiency should increase also in BAU. VSHP efficiency expected to be higher than ASHP efficiency. JRAIA finds efficiency for ASHP in 2030 too high.

Response: This has been changed. The model now uses one weighted-average efficiency for all electric HP types. The efficiency steadily increases in BAU and is assumed to remain the same in ECO (no specific measures proposed to change this). See also footnote 19.

ANEC/BUEC, EHPA, EPEE and ECOS-EEB: Refrigerant losses are assumed to stay constant over the years, with R410A as a reference. This is not in line with other EU-


regulations (F-gas 517/2014) that restrict the use of HFC and foresee a shift towards other refrigerants having much lower GWP (p.51 of Task 1).

Response: This has been changed. Model now uses R410A as a reference until 2015, but takes only 50% of the corresponding GWP value in 2030, and 25% in 2050. This gives a negligible contribution of refrigerants to overall GHG-emissions. See also chapter on GHG-emissions and footnote 34.

ANEC/BUEC: Policy options resulting in fuel shifts (mainly gas towards electric) above BAU have not been modelled. We would recommend the study team to do so.

Response: ECO-scenario including such a shift has now been modelled.

ANEC/BUEC: Better highlight the relationship between heating appliances, home insulation and energy transition policies. In our view, the relationship between heating appliances, home insulation (for which only a constant -0,9% heating demand per year is assumed, p.6-7 and Task 3) and wider energy transition (national) policies is missing from Tasks 6 and 7 (while it is described quite comprehensively in Chapter 3 of Task 1 and in Task 3). For various reasons (geopolitical, geological, economical), it might be that EU countries shift away from using natural gas and e.g. stimulate district heating and/or building codes that cause new developments to be built without gas grid connections. Not reflecting this relationship and conjuncture, is misleading, as it leads to an exaggeration of the role of fuel, relatively to electricity, in future heating. In turns, this leads to an exaggeration of the potential benefits of H2-ready boilers. There is a need for an emphasis on the policy options that improve the efficiency of electric (heat pump) heating options.

Response: See also answer above on DH and CS. Additional remarks on this topic, in particular in relation to H2-use, have been inserted in Task 6.

Norway and EPEE: Norway does not agree with approach to copy the PEF from the revised EED. Instead, Norway advocates a 'long-term marginal PEF'. EPEE wants to use a ‘floating PEF’ that decreases with the years in line with EU climate and energy policy framework.

Response: The value of the Primary Energy Factor for electricity to be used in this study was extensively addressed in the Task 1 report (in particular par. 5.3.4) and in the Task 6 report (par. 2.4). The use of PEF=2.1 was also explained in the stakeholder meetings.

COGEN and PACE: provides sales and stock data for mCHP and indicates additional data sources. In general mCHP market is stated to be larger than assumed by study team. Asks to update Task 2 for this.

Response: Sales quantities for mCHP have been increased such that a stock of 100,000 units is obtained in 2019, as indicated by COGEN.

UBA: suggests to use higher GWP values for gas and oil and to use 0.15 instead of zero for biogas.

Response: The non-zero value for biogas has been taken into account. For oil and gas it has been preferred to continue working with the values from the Ecodesign Impact Accounting. See also chapter on GHG-emissions and footnote 31.

Greece: suggests using a higher lifetime for solar systems: at least 20 years, maybe even 25 years.


Response: The lifetime has been increased to 18 years. The same value is now used for almost all base cases, to enable shifts in sales between base cases without changing the total stock. See also chapter on Stock.


ANNEX A: SCENARIO ANALYSIS DATA

Sales

Table 7. EU-28 sales per base case for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures)

SALES BAU0, 000 units 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gas non-cond 3852 1995 1839 1779 1626 1483 1344 1213 1088 967 Gas cond 129 3466 3731 4182 4402 4598 4753 4874 4950 4972 Jet non-cond 1130 350 156 141 131 122 113 105 97 90 Jet cond 0 117 158 173 192 210 228 245 261 276 Elec Joule 42 67 64 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Hybrid 1 3 5 8 14 23 37 61 100 163 Elec HP 20 285 323 392 453 524 603 694 798 917 Gas HP 1 3 4 6 9 13 19 27 38 54 mCHP 2 3 4 6 9 13 19 27 38 54 Solar combi (16 m2) 19 33 33 36 37 37 38 39 39 40 Boiler >400 kW 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Total Central Heating boiler,

Space Heating 5226 6354 6348 6825 6969 7112 7239 7365 7484 7603

SALES BAU, 000 units 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



Space Heating 5226 6354 6348 6825 6969 7112 7239 7365 7484 7603

SALES ECO, 000 units 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



Space Heating 5226 6354 6348 6825 6969 7112 7238 7365 7484 7603


Stock

Table 8. EU-28 stock per base case for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures)

STOCK BAU0, 000 units 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gas non-cond 47,237 68,112 57,798 46,010 35,009 31,780 29,134 25,985 23,538 21,198 Gas cond 643 27,317 42,485 57,845 70,731 77,043 81,287 83,296 85,911 87,777 Jet non-cond 25,845 22,141 17,780 13,411 9,300 5,417 3,414 3,012 2,791 2,588 Jet cond 0 521 1,230 2,056 2,969 3,934 4,511 4,901 5,323 5,733 Elec Joule 729 942 1,035 1,177 1,255 1,219 1,171 1,058 968 877 Hybrid 17 25 40 69 120 200 330 539 883 1,445 Elec HP 349 2,506 3,746 5,142 6,565 7,522 8,722 9,929 11,436 13,157 Gas HP 5 25 38 60 94 137 197 280 399 569 mCHP 11 39 48 65 95 137 197 280 399 569 Solar combi (16 m2) 270 437 500 566 629 658 674 676 689 700 Boiler >400 kW 524 545 552 558 564 565 554 543 543 543


Space Heating 75,630 122,611 125,252 126,960 127,331 128,614 130,192 130,498 132,878 135,157

STOCK BAU, 000 units 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gas non-cond 47,237 68,112 56,841 38,517 20,818 10,794 4,566 2,577 1,452 1,050 Gas cond 643 27,317 43,291 64,405 81,491 89,949 91,259 84,617 78,381 70,975 Jet non-cond 25,845 22,141 17,708 12,962 8,353 3,985 1,514 779 557 444 Jet cond 0 521 1,302 2,505 3,916 5,366 6,411 7,134 7,556 7,877 Elec Joule 729 942 1,035 1,177 1,255 1,219 1,171 1,058 968 877 Hybrid 17 25 52 133 407 956 1,795 2,888 4,159 5,624 Elec HP 349 2,506 3,836 5,863 9,395 14,292 21,056 28,624 36,532 44,571 Gas HP 5 25 48 112 238 428 670 937 1,224 1,526 mCHP 11 39 59 113 205 333 478 621 767 912 Solar combi (16 m2) 270 437 529 616 688 725 718 721 740 759 Boiler >400 kW 524 545 552 558 564 565 554 543 543 543

Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating 75,630 122,611 125,252 126,960 127,331 128,614 130,192 130,498 132,878 135,157

STOCK ECO, 000 units 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gas non-cond 47,237 68,112 56,841 38,517 20,752 10,635 4,314 2,232 1,077 634 Gas cond 643 27,317 43,291 64,405 80,444 86,045 82,502 69,148 55,730 41,058 Jet non-cond 25,845 22,141 17,708 12,962 8,346 3,962 1,467 703 449 307 Jet cond 0 521 1,302 2,505 3,858 5,134 5,848 6,035 5,663 4,923 Elec Joule 729 942 1,035 1,177 1,255 1,218 1,168 1,054 963 873 Hybrid 17 25 52 133 1,054 3,327 6,994 11,904 17,092 22,391 Elec HP 349 2,506 3,836 5,863 9,693 15,379 23,561 33,209 43,559 54,369 Gas HP 5 25 48 112 428 1,123 2,210 3,637 5,161 6,731 mCHP 11 39 59 113 228 422 676 972 1,288 1,613 Solar combi (16 m2) 270 437 529 616 710 802 896 1,045 1,229 1,429 Boiler >400 kW 524 545 552 558 564 565 554 543 543 543

Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating 75,630 122,611 125,252 126,960 127,330 128,612 130,189 130,481 132,752 134,871


Load (heat demand)

Table 9. Unit load: identical for all base cases < 400 kW, and identical for all scenarios. Annual variation is 0.85%/a.

Unit Load in kWh/a For all scenarios 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Boiler < 400 kW 12846 10845 10392 9958 9542 9143 8761 8395 8044 7708 Boiler >400 kW 364553 356059 353935 351812 349688 347564 345441 343317 341194 339070

Table 10. EU-28 total space heating demand covered by Central Heating Boilers in scope of the study (EU-load in TWh/a), for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures)

EULOAD BAU0, TWh/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating

1156 1518 1491 1455 1407 1367 1327 1277 1250 1222

EULOAD BAU, TWh/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating 1156 1518 1491 1455 1407 1367 1327 1277 1250 1222

EULOAD ECO, TWh/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating 1156 1518 1491 1455 1407 1367 1327 1277 1249 1219


Energy Efficiency

Table 11. Energy Efficiency of products sold in a given year.

Heat Output divided by Primary energy (in GCV), expressed in %. PEF 2.1 used to convert electricity to primary energy. Values for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures)

Primary Efficiency BAU0, % 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gas non-cond 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% Gas cond 80% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% Jet non-cond 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% Jet cond 80% 81% 81% 81% 81% 81% 81% 81% 81% 81% Elec Joule 35% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% Hybrid 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% Elec HP 121% 124% 125% 126% 127% 127% 128% 129% 130% 130% Gas HP 107% 125% 130% 131% 132% 132% 133% 134% 135% 136% mCHP 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% 110% Solar combi (16 m2) 82% 99% 101% 104% 106% 109% 112% 115% 119% 123% Boiler >400 kW 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%

Primary Efficiency BAU, % 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Primary Efficiency ECO, % 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Note: the efficiencies presented above are the average for products sold in a given year. The average of the stock in the same year is typically lower. The stock-average efficiency is calculated in the model and used for the energy computations.


Fuel Consumption

Table 12. EU-28 total fuel consumption for space heaters in scope.

Values in TWh GCV/a, for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures)

Fuel BAU0, TWh GCV/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gas non-cond 900 1013 824 628 458 399 350 299 260 224 Gas cond 10 343 507 660 772 805 814 799 790 773 Jet non-cond 629 356 273 197 131 73 44 37 33 29 Jet cond 0 7 15 24 34 43 47 49 51 52 Elec Joule 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hybrid 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 Elec HP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas HP 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 mCHP 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 Solar combi (16 m2) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 Boiler >400 kW 306 281 282 284 285 284 277 269 268 266 Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating

1849 2005 1907 1800 1687 1611 1541 1464 1413 1360

Fuel BAU, TWh GCV/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


1849 2005 1890 1742 1573 1429 1296 1167 1068 973

Fuel ECO, TWh GCV/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


1849 2005 1890 1740 1536 1340 1143 946 785 632


Electricity Consumption

Table 13. EU-28 total electricity consumption for space heaters in scope.

Values in TWh/a, for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures)

Electricity BAU0, TWh/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


55 66 69 73 75 75 75 75 76 78

Electricity BAU, TWh/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


55 66 69 72 78 86 98 111 124 136

Electricity ECO, TWh/a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


55 66 69 72 79 91 111 134 156 177


Primary Energy Consumption

Table 14. EU-28 total primary energy consumption for space heaters in scope.

Values in TWh GCV/a, for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures). Uses PEF=2.1 for electricity, for all years.

Primary Energy BAU0, TWh GCV/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


1963 2143 2052 1952 1844 1768 1698 1621 1573 1524

Primary Energy BAU, TWh GCV/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


1963 2143 2035 1894 1737 1610 1503 1401 1329 1259

Primary Energy ECO, TWh GCV/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


1963 2143 2035 1892 1703 1531 1376 1227 1114 1004


GHG-emissions

Table 15. EU-28 total GHG-emissions for space heaters in scope.

Values in MtCO2eq/a, for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures).

GHG-emissions BAU0, MtCO2eq/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


450 463 440 415 387 365 345 326 312 298

GHG-emissions BAU, MtCO2eq/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


450 463 436 403 346 297 254 216 194 173

GHG-emissions ECO, MtCO2eq/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


450 463 436 403 338 279 226 106 77 67


Acquisition Costs

Table 16. EU-28 total Acquisition Costs (purchase and installation) for space heaters in scope.

Values in bn euros 2015/a, incl. VAT for residential, for the BAU0-scenario (without existing regulations), for the BAU-scenario (with existing measures) and for the ECO-scenario (including new proposed measures).

Acquisition cost BAU0, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gas non-cond 7.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 Gas cond 0.5 11.0 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 Jet non-cond 11.6 3.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Jet cond 0.0 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 Elec Joule 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 Elec HP 0.2 2.8 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.8 9.0 Gas HP 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 mCHP 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 Solar combi (16 m2) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Boiler >400 kW 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Total Central Heating boiler, Space Heating

24 28 24 26 27 28 29 31 33 35

Acquisition cost BAU, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


24 28 25 28 33 37 42 46 51 56

Acquisition cost ECO, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


24 28 25 28 37 44 52 60 68 76


Energy Costs

Table 17. EU-28 total Energy Costs for space heaters in scope.


Energy cost BAU0, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


99 143 148 135 137 141 145 149 156 162

Energy cost BAU, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


99 143 147 131 129 129 130 132 135 138

Energy cost ECO, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


99 143 147 131 127 123 121 117 116 113

Table 18. Energy rates, inflation corrected in 2015 (euro).

Residential rates include VAT; non-residential rates exclude VAT and other recoverable taxes and levies. Before 2017 based on Eurostat and Oil Bulletin. Projections from 2017 closely follow the PRIMES 2015 reference. scenario.

Electricity Rates (€/kWh) x% /a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Residential sector 1% 0.202 0.184 0.210 0.207 0.217 0.228 0.240 0.252 0.265 0.278 Industry sector 1% 0.128 0.112 0.119 0.114 0.120 0.126 0.133 0.139 0.146 0.154 Tertiary/Services & Other sector 1% 0.176 0.159 0.178 0.174 0.183 0.192 0.202 0.213 0.223 0.235

Natural Gas Rates (€/kWh) x% /a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Residential sector 1.5% 0.058 0.065 0.076 0.069 0.074 0.080 0.086 0.093 0.100 0.108 Industry sector 1.5% 0.027 0.038 0.039 0.033 0.035 0.038 0.041 0.044 0.048 0.051 Tertiary/Services & Other sector 1.5% 0.045 0.054 0.061 0.054 0.058 0.062 0.067 0.072 0.078 0.084

Gas Oil for Heating (€/kWh) x% /a 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Residential sector 1.5% 0.041 0.079 0.069 0.077 0.083 0.090 0.097 0.104 0.112 0.121 Industry sector 1.5% 0.035 0.066 0.057 0.064 0.069 0.075 0.080 0.087 0.093 0.101 Tertiary/Services & Other sector 1.5% 0.035 0.066 0.057 0.064 0.069 0.075 0.080 0.087 0.093 0.101


Maintenance Costs

Table 19. EU-28 total Maintenance Costs for space heaters in scope.


Maintenance cost BAU0, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


14 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Maintenance cost BAU, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


14 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 18

Maintenance cost ECO, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


14 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 17


User Expense

Table 20. EU-28 total User Expense for space heaters in scope.


User Expense BAU0, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


137 191 193 180 183 188 194 200 208 217

User Expense BAU, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


137 191 192 179 182 186 191 196 204 211

User Expense ECO, bn euros/a

1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


137 191 192 179 183 187 192 195 201 206

Documents

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