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Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking for and building optionality in multi-speed markets 7 May 2013

Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

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Page 1: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

Bob Katsiouleris

Group General Manager, Commercial Operations

Looking for and building optionality in multi-speed markets

7 May 2013

Page 2: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

‒ This presentation has been prepared by the management of Nyrstar NV (the "Company"). It does not constitute or form part of, and should

not be construed as, an offer, solicitation or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company or any

member of its group nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscribe

for any securities of the Company or any member of its group, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with

any contract or commitment whatsoever.

‒ The information included in this presentation has been provided to you solely for your information and background and is subject to updating,

completion, revision and amendment and such information may change materially. Unless required by applicable law or regulation, no

person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation and any opinions expressed in relation

thereto are subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy,

reasonableness or completeness of the information contained herein. Neither the Company nor any other person accepts any liability for any

loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from this presentation or its contents.

‒ This presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning,

among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, performance, prospects, growth, strategies and the

industry in which the Company operates. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and other

factors that could cause the Company's actual results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, performance, prospects, growth or

opportunities, as well as those of the markets it serves or intends to serve, to differ materially from those expressed in, or suggested by,

these forward-looking statements. The Company cautions you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and

that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may

differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the

Company's results of operations, financial condition, liquidity and growth and the development of the industry in which the Company operates

are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of

results or developments in future periods. The Company and each of its directors, officers and employees expressly disclaim any obligation

or undertaking to review, update or release any update of or revisions to any forward-looking statements in this presentation or any change in

the Company's expectations or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which these forward-looking statements are based,

except as required by applicable law or regulation.

‒ This document and any materials distributed in connection with this document are not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any

person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication,

availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.

‒ The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes

should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. The Company’s shares have not been and will not be registered under

the US Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the

Securities Act or exemption from the registration requirement thereof.

2

Important Notice

Page 3: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

Zinc transitioning from super-cycle dynamics to stand alone fundamentals, with different regional opportunities

3

Nyrstar keynote speech

- Every commodity now sitting on own individual fundamentals

- We expect divergent fortunes and decoupling within metals complex

- ‘Three speed’ (Europe, US, China) recovery world heightens complexity, each with own macro-drivers, and inter-play dynamics

- Complexity coupled with rapidly shifting dynamics leads to opportunities to create significant “soft” margins

- Warehouse/financing dynamic means few are able to tell whether LME movements are demand or ‘warehouse wars’

- Critical to move a way from the supply side and to focus on demand opportunities

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CRB Commodity Index (LHS)

CRB Metal Index (LHS)

China Heavy Industrial Value Added (RHS)

Page 4: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

4

- Demand conditions weak in 2013

- Growth concerns as exporters face competition from weaker Yen

- Passenger and commercial vehicle sales down 22% year on year

- But destocking is complete; H2 bounce back expected in Germany, Poland and Nordics

- Growing concern is competitiveness, global share loss and position in EM of Euro-

galvanizersSource: Deutsche Bank AG

Europe: ‘Green Shoots’ emerge

(60)%

(40)%

(20)%

-

20%

40%

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Q113

European truck book / bill

European auto production (y-o-y%)

European truck book / bill leads auto production by one quarter

Nyrstar keynote speech

Page 5: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

5

- Still some soft data but US beginning to decouple itself from external shocks

- Agriculture sector led by corn, cotton and wheat; growing zinc micro-deficiency and late Spring

- Current galvanised demand from construction disappointing, but likely to recover in H2

- Auto on a “tear”; Big Three results in April were huge. Pace of 15.5 million

- US housing sector recovering, significant upside potential

- Evidence of tightening market conditions

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

United States: Momentum gathering

Unites States housing starts (thousand units)

Nyrstar keynote speech

Page 6: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

As pent up demand for housing releases home equity, impact will be immediate on light trucks

6

Nyrstar keynote speech

Source: US Department of Commerce

Monthly correlations between pickup truck sales vs housing starts

Yearly correlations between pickup truck sales vs housing starts

Page 7: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

Big Three are off to a great start; 15.5m could be achieved in 2013

7

Nyrstar keynote speech

Source: Thomson Reuters data stream

US auto sales US cars and light trucks sales and gas prices

Source: Wall Street Journal

Sales of cars and light trucks in US retail

market (millions of units at seasonally

adjusted annual rates)

Unleaded gasoline,

average weekly retail

price per gallon

Page 8: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

Should we be following the global zinc deficiency patterns?

8Source: IZA

Nyrstar keynote speech

Page 9: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

9Source: CRU International

- Strong growth in autos and housing starts

- Alloys market is slower as Chinese downstream plants suffering due to margin squeeze

- Bigger challenge is impact of Chinese galvansied sheet production growth on European

market

- European galvanizers need to get more competitive

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

USA - Galvanised Sheet Shipments

China - Galvanised Sheet Production

EU15 - Galvanised Sheet Production

China: Rebalancing creates opportunities and challenges

Galvansied sheet output (thousand metric tonnes)

Nyrstar keynote speech

Page 10: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

10

- Shift from super-cycle mentality (mine-to-market) to market-to-mine game

plan; focus on demand, not supply, both at regional and end use level

- Winners will need to identify opportunities and target less capital

intensive ‘soft margins’ tied to marketing capabilities, linked to new and

exiting pockets of demand

- Opportunities for continued Chinese growth in galvanizing sector will put

pressure on European galvanizers to get more competitive. Chinese auto

and home sector showing strong signs of growth, tempered only by

inflation concerns. Panama canal offers new supply chain.

- Producers must begin to understand and create own views on demand

impact and opportunities associated with energy (shale, global LNG

movements), consumerism, monetary and fiscal policy (Japan, Brazil,

USA) and potential China re-balancing

- Europe may surprise in H2. US on its way with further upside for zinc

demand in construction, agronomy and automotive. Watch Chinese

exports

Some Closing Thoughts,

Nyrstar keynote speech

Page 11: Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations/media/Files/N/Nyrstar-IR/results-reports-an… · Bob Katsiouleris Group General Manager, Commercial Operations Looking

Questions

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Zinc-deficient cotton,

West Texas

Nyrstar keynote speech