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Bob Hayward
Technology Trends 2004-2008
These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -- [email protected].
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
The Long View – Mid-Life Pause For Breath for IT-based Transformation of Business
19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030
Silicon Age
Nano & Quantum Age
?
"Knowledge" Age
Mainframes
PCs
Physical Connectivity
Logical Connectivity
Embedded ConnectivityRelativeimportance
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 3
Technology Laws and Innovation Continue…
Moore’s Law – The Fifth Paradigm
10-6
10-4
10-2
10
10+2
10+4
10+6
10+8
10+10
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Exponential Scale
Calculations Per Second Per $1,000.
ElectromechanicalRelay
Vacuum TubeTransistor
Integrated Circuit
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 4
The Hype Cycle
Trough ofDisillusionment
Slope ofEnlightenment
Plateau ofProductivity
Maturity
TechnologyTrigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
PositiveHype
NegativeHype
Do not join in just because it is "in"
Do not miss out just because it is "out"
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 5
Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
Maturity
Visibility
Less than two years
Two to five years
Five to 10 years
More than 10 years
Key: Time to Plateau
As of May 2003
Instant messaging, retail
Instant messaging, corporate
Mobile applications, retail
Mobile applications, corporate
Mobile payments
Speech and voice technologiesGrid computing
Data mining
Web services
Artificial intelligence
Intelligent agents/push technology
Sales planning and pricing tools
Partner relationship
management (PRM)
Biometrics
Chip-based cards, corporate
Contact chip cards, Europe
Contact chip cards, U.S.
E-tag
Network identity
services
E-signatures
Document imaging
Document management/archive
Business rules engine
Emerging technologies hype cycle
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Benefit
Maturity
New business models
New processes
Improved processes
Moderate: Usable with motivation
Low: demonstrations, prototypes and pilots
Biometrics
Natural Language
Search
Wireless LANs/802.11
WAP/Wireless WebLocation Sensing
VoIP
Bluetooth
P2P
PersonalFuel Cells
Web Services
Nanocomputing
Grid Computing
Digital Wallets
E-Tags
Text-to-Speech
Speech Recognition
PKIPDA Phones
E-Payments
VPN
Radar Screen
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 7
Technologies at Different Speeds
Long-fusetechnologies
One to two decades from trigger to plateau Science-fiction-like fascination Inherent complexity, business implications. Reliance on certain infrastructure, skills
“Fast Track” Technologies
Two to four years from trigger to plateau Performance peaks early Uses current infrastructure/standards Easy to use Vendor support
IM, SMS, USB Flash Cards.
Smart Dust Speech RecognitionHandwriting Recognition
Machine TranslationIntelligent Clothes
“Intelligent Agents”
Holographic Storage
Internet
Desktop VideoconferencingBiometrics
Tele-ImmersionFiber optics
Nano-Computing
DNA-Computing
“Autonomic Computing”
Quantum-Decryption
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Gartner Predicts: Ten Hot Technologies 2004
The Top Ten TechnologiesInstant MessagingReal Time Data WarehouseWiFi SecurityInternal Web ServicesPolicy based managementIP TelephonyUtility ComputingGrid ComputingNetwork Security TechnologiesRFID Tags
Maturing in 18-36 months
Wider Applicability
Lowered RiskIssues Resolved
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 9
Instant Messaging in the Enterprise
Values:
Presence Service
Real-time
No rewind
Low overhead
Other Issues:
Lack of audit trail
QoS limitations
Poor integration capability
Lost record of decisions
Text focused, limited media
Security concerns:
Data protection
Privacy
Tamper resistance
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 10
“Creative Scheduling”
DW
ETLETLETLETLETLETL
Source Source Source Source
Replication
Source Source Source Source
Replicate Replicate Replicate Replicate
DW
Data Warehouse As An Application
DW
IntegrationBroker
Source Source Source Source
TargetApps.
Avoid The Issue — No Data Warehouse!
Source Source Source Source
BI Tools and Applications
DW
ETL
Options for developing a ‘Real-Time’ Data Warehouse
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 11
On the Cusp of the Most Fundamental Change to Business Since The Internet
IT Architecture, concepts and business philosophy have reached a critical tipping point:– Service Oriented Architectures (SOA), Event
Driven Architectures (EDA), Service Oriented Business Applications (SOBA), Service Oriented Development of Applications (SODA), Web Services, Real Time Enterprise (RTE), Business Process Management (BPM) and Modeling and Business Process Fusion gaining major traction and move towards critical mass and mainstream adoption
Maturity in these areas will drive dramatic changes in the way we do business, to a degree not seen since the advent of the Internet
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 12
Integration of IT and Business Processes
HighLow
CustomerCustomer
BusinessProcessBusinessProcess
ITIT
CustomerCustomer
BusinessProcessBusinessProcess
ITIT
CustomerCustomer
BusinessProcessBusinessProcess
ITIT
No Business Is an Island: The Increased Dependence on IT for Business Processes
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 13
Software As Product– License model– Customization required– Post implementation
hosting– Expensive
Software As Service– Speed to solution– Rental model– Remote delivery– Vertical templates– Medium cost
Business Services– Application agnostic– Net-native software– Pay for use– Business process
focused– Lower cost
Time 2014
Business
Focus
&
Alignment
External applications managed by service provider - customer buying access to an
application
External applications managed by customer –
customer buying application
Services provisioned by service provider (i.e., like voice services provided by a telco) – customer
buying a service with no concern or awareness of enabling applications
Key Trend: Software as a Service
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 14
Internal Use of Web Services
Scope ofDeployment
Scope ofControl
“B” = Shared Web services for closely held supply chains and narrow partner groupings“A” = Proprietary web services
for internal integration
cross-industry
extended supply chain
cross- enterprise
cross- application
U.S. & Int’lstandards
bodiesindustryconsortia (public)
channelmaster (private)
CIOoffice
1 dept..
Level 2: Limited External-Trading
Partner Integration — 2005
“B”
Level 3: Unlimited- Potential Prospects, Suppliers, and
Influencers — 2007
Level 1: Internal-Building E-hubs-
2003
“A”
“C”
“C” =Open Sourced Web Services-
UDDI Directories
XML-driveninternet
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 15
The Emerging Standards Stack
SOAP
WSDL
In placeKey:
MessagingDescription
StandardNeedBusinessSemantics
ebXML, UBL, RosettaNet
UDDI
BPEL4WS, BPML, WSCI
WS-Security, SAML, XRML
Search & find
Workflow/BPM
Reliability
Building trust
Identifying Liberty, Passport
XMLFormat
Common Internet Protocols(e.g., TCP/IP, HTTP)Transport
WS-Reliable MessagingUser interface WSRP, WSIA Emerging
Entrenched
Established
Eventually
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 16
Shared Management Infrastructure
Shared Middleware Infrastructure
Integrated Development Framework and IDE
Portal Integration Transactions
Rules Editor
Orchestration Editor
Assembly Editor
Designers/Modelers
Runtime Engines
Service Wrappers
Generators
Registry Pub/Sub
Integrated SODA Environment
SES
BusinessApplicationServices
ERP
CRM
(for example, Customer record (multiple systems, composite or adapted services)
SOBAISE — Producer Platform
Application Platform Suite (APS)
Software As A Service
SODA
SOA
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17
2005 to 2006: Move Toward BPF and RTE With Composite Applications
MarketEvent
BusinessResponse
SOA & CEPenabled business process fusion
2008: Fusion &consolidation
End-to-end virtual processes and relationships (& CEP)
MarketEvent
BusinessResponseWeb-enabled,
services-wrapped composite apps BPM
2005-6: Flexible but complex
Process 1 2 3 4
Cross-function, multienterprise business processes (& BPM)
MarketEvent
BusinessResponse
Proprietary,monolithic app suites & modules, MOM
1998: Rigidand simple
Process 3Process 1 Process 2 Process 4
Function-focused business processes (& MOM)
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 18
Transactions and RDBMS
Data warehouseand analytics
Document store and workflow
Messaging
Processing Styles — Remove the Architecture Silos
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 19
Business Process Fusion Enables End-to-End Applications and Processes
Business Process Fusion Applications Cross-functional processes
(internal and external) End-to-End process support
All content types Embedded analytics Services-based
Optimize Value of All Contracts With All Customers
RDBMSData
WarehouseUnstructured Data Mgmt.
Noteworthy Architectural Element
Transaction-Based
Systems
AnalyticsSystems
Collaboration, Content and
WorkflowApplication Style
Determine Yearly Sales Volumes by Customer
Analyze Customer Profitability
Discuss & Record “T’s & C’s” of Customers’ Relationships
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 20
Application Requirements Expand Data to Knowledge; Transactions to Process Innovation
Flexible Application PlatformPortal, Integration, App Server, APS, SOA
Leverage Enterprise KnowledgeContent, Data, Analytics, Relationship Mgmt
Transaction ProcessingERP, SCM, Customer Transactions, etc.
Business CollaborationSmart Enterprise Suites, Multienterprise
End-to-End ProcessingBusiness Process Fusion
Low
High
Med
Low
Maturityin 2003
Low
Mission-Critical
2007
2005
Now
2005
2004 Low
BusinessValue
High
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21
Gartner Predicts: Application Development Models, Toolsets Are Changing
50%
100%
1998 200320022000 20011999 2004 2005
Proprietary Vendor 4GL, AS/400 RPG, Mainframe COBOL, etc.
Microsoft .NET
Microsoft DNA
Java Platforms
1M
2M
3M
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
New Projects Programming Models Professional Developers
COBOL
Visual Basic 6 and lower
C/C++
Java
C#
Visual Basic .NET
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 22
Static and Unshared Islands
Service A
Edge
Application
Database
Service B Service C
• Inefficient• Overprovisioned• Hard to manage
Current state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities
(And Many Others)
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 23
Policy Based Management: The Real-Time Infrastructure
Black-Box Application Services
Actual User Experience
Policies• Definition of IT Service • Service Agreements • User Class• Business Priorities
INPUTS
Compute Store
Network
Resources
WorkloadsApplications Databases
Middleware
OUTPUTS
IT Services
Policy-based, dynamic, cost-efficient:• Provisioning: Deployment, Growth• Optimization: Resource Efficiency• Availability: Predictable, Service Level
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 24
IP Telephony
VoIP on WAN issues
QoS control
Economics vs carrier trends
IP variable latency
Standards and interoperability
IP telephony issues
Features vs PBX
Scalability
Reliability
QoS and sharing networks
Interoperability
Some Missing Features
Attendant console
Least cost routing
Busy override
Trunk callback queuing
Blind transfer
Less then 500 phones; VoIP over WAN
Large IP Telephony (500 or more phones)
Very Large IP telephony (2,000 or more phones)
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 25
Utility Computing
• Utility computing
• Buy the services of system, not HW/SW
• Separates the ‘what’ from the ‘how’
• Pricing model tends toward usage
• Examples: ASPs, SSPs, MSPs, hosting services
• Access them various ways
• Web services
• Browsers
• Thick clients
• . . .8.6B$
2003
25B$
2006
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 26
GRID ComputingApplication
Owner COwner A Owner B
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 27
Utility Computing and GRIDApplication
Utility selling grid resourcesOwner A
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 28
Honey Pots, Application Traces and Forensics
Firewalls
IDS
VA
Gateway AV
Security Platform
In the Cloud MSS
IntrusionPreventionAppliances
Anti-spam
ContentScanning
Sub-100 Mb
Gigabit+
2002 20042006
?
?
Policies and Parameters
New Network Security Technology
Unified Management
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 29
Current Applications Toll pass systems Pet identification Access cards Retail theft protection Electronic parolee tracking
Photos source Texas Instruments
Successor to Bar Codes Can read even covered Can read while moving Can scan at distance Survives water, heat, painting Price dropping to low levels Remain in product for life
Potential Applications Locate common objects Improved asset control Real-time retail-shelf inventory Move to faster or self-checkout Improve manufacturing and
supply-chain efficiency After-sale services offerings
RFID Tag
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 30
“Smart” Objects
2002 2015
• Passive tags temporarily attached to medium-/high-value items.
• Dedicated communication and computation is applied in specialized situations only.
• Computers are relatively large and long-lived.
• Passive tags in every nontrivial object.
• Active intelligence wireless networking and sensing capabilities cost under 50c and are widely distributed.
• The majority of computers are invisible and disposable.
• Bar coded shopping.
• Inventory tagging.
• Specialized industrial tagging.
• Nothing is ever lost.
• Everything is identifiable.
• Many objects know their history and can interact wirelessly.
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 31
More information
Improved understanding
Improved decisions
AnalysisGap
Action Gap
Digital footprints(Sensors, RFID)
Self-service Information extraction Unstructured data sources Embedded connectivity Metadata and tags
Improved algorithms Targeted algorithms Integrated analysis
Business rules Business
process fusion
Analysis: Mind the Gap
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 32
• Proxy• Caching• VPN• Firewall• WAP• VoIP Gateway
Desktops
Client Devices
• Databases• Consolidation on zSeries
• ERP• SCM• CRM• HR
Business Application
Server
Internet Access
Line of Business
Enterprise Data
Data/Content Server/
Warehouse
Network Edge Servers
Compute Clusters
Infrastructure Server/Blade
• Directory• Security• Load balance• File/print• Web• E-mail• NAS
Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize
Gartner Predicts: Linux in the Enterprise: Grass Roots
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 33
Office Suite
Word Processor
Spreadsheet
Charting
Personal Database
ERP Suite
Material Requirements Planning
Inventory Control
Financials
Human Resources
Smart Enterprise Suite
Collaboration Support
Content Management
Information Access
Portal Framework
Gartner Predicts: Smart Enterprise Suite — A New Wave of Software Consolidation
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Content management
Collaboration
Information organization and retrieval
Business intelligence
Portal framework
Ad hoc process support
Expertise location and management
Community support
Content management
Collaboration
Information organization and retrieval
Business intelligence
Portal framework
Ad hoc process support
Expertise location and management
Community support
With: Sufficient range of functionality Aggressive price points Coherent offer for individual,
team and enterprise processes Integration across suite —
for user and administration Services and support
SES — What to Expect
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Connected Society
wireless wearables
Wi-Fi
smart phones
location-based services
ultra-wide band
Smart Networked Objects
embedded computing
RFID
MEMS
smart dust
digital ink
Semantic Web
information extractionXBRL
Semantic Connectivity
affinity profiles
automatic tagging
Three Megatrends
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 36
Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade
PDA Hub
Mesh Networks
By 2007, hubs (central units without peripherals) will emerge that connect many peripherals (e.g., via PAN).
Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player, Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling
Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center
A mix of technologies, e.g., Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix: reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach
Sensor Mesh Networks/Monitoring Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play
Tags,Motes,GPS
RFID, Smart Dust (Smart Peas), GPS Sensors Fleet Management (AVLDS), Inventory Management Optimized Traffic Routing
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 37
Mobile Network Evolution
Celllocation(worst case,
several Km)
Location precision of 80 M or better
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001 TDMA CDMA
GPRS
EDGE
WCDMA 1x-EV DVcdma2000
1xRTT
GSM
GPRS
WCDMA
EDGE
2GAssume 9.6-19.6 Kbps
2.5GAssume80-100 KbpsEDGE,20-40 Kbps GPRS
3GAssume 200-300 Kbps
Celllocation(worst case,
several Km)
?EV DO
CDMA GSMCDMA GSM
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 38
Short-Range Wireless
Personal Personal AreaAreaAdjacentAdjacent
Local Local AreaArea MetropolitanMetropolitan
1M 10M 100M 1KM
Nearfield
Passive RFID
Active RFID
802.16a (Wi-Max)802.16b (mobile)
Proprietary fixed mesh
802.20 (mobile)
UWB
802.15.4(Zigbee)
Bluetooth
Proprietary PAN
Proprietary mesh
802.11 a,be,g,h,i,f
(b = Wi-Fi)
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 39
Device Innovation, 2003-2005
Consumer
Corporate
Market Trendsg Fashion is still keyg Annuity handset revenueg Nokia n-gage consoleg Asian manufacturers
g Greater competition, e.g., Dell, Microsoft
g Fragmentation, not convergence
g Microsoft and Symbian battle for corporate "mind share"
g No single-standard corporate device
Technology Trendsg Color, polyphonic soundg Imaging, video, camerasg Game technologyg M-commerce hardware
g Java everywhereg Form-factor proliferationg Slow Bluetooth deployment
g Integrated WLANg Microsoft .NET growsg 1GHz, PDA by 2005g Tablet PC
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 40
Pre-Teen
Teen
Young Adult
Middle Aged
Senior Citizen
Mobile PopulationMobile Population
B2E, B2B, B2GB2E, B2B, B2GB2CB2C M2MM2MMeters
Vending
Kiosk
ATM
Vehicular
Mass Transit
Supervisory Control
PreventativeMaintenance
SMB
Head Office
TelecommuterOffice-Centric
Site Rover
Caregiver
Hazardous
Point of Sale
Dock Worker
Education
Warehouse
Site Security
CampusWorkers
Mobile Exec.
Delivery
Sales
Fleet
Field Service
Construction/Maintenance
CriticalWorkers
KnowledgeWorker
Traveling Workers(Road Warriors)
The Diverse Mobile User
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 41Gartner estimates as of February 2003
Primary Modes of Mobile Workers
Well-defined, structuredcached thin/slim clientAvg. Annual Cost: $1,183
FormsForms
Full fidelitythick clientAvg. AnnualCost: $3,106
PowerPower
KnowledgeKnowledgeUnstructured messagesand forms, thick clientAvg. Annual Cost: $2,296
MessageMessageE-mail-centric,slim offlineAvg. Annual Cost: $889
Thin client, Read, one-button responseAvg. Annual Cost: $416
AlertsAlerts
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 42
Computer Human Interaction in the Next Decade
Human Computer
Computer Human
Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position Gait Analysis, Infrared Emotion/Lie Detection SPA: Most CHI will remain keyboard-driven throughout
2015 (0.7 probability)
OLED/OLEP, E-Ink Head-Mounted Displays Speech Synthesis Avatars, Synthetic Characters
Logic Natural Language Search Machine Translation Taxonomies/Browsing Personalization
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 43
Supply Chain
IP
IP
Supply Chain
IP
IPServices
Services
Uncontrolled distribution of
information
Political & social instability
Electronic fraud
Geographical & cultural
remoteness
Lack of trust in Internet security
Supplier dependency
The Connected Economy Opens the Door to New Dependencies and Threats
In recent years, we have witnessed terrorist attacks, political unrest, war and most recently SARS which has forced us to urgently address
the business issues of globalization in a way never before required
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 44
The World in2003-2006
Universal Security Compliant Accounting Transparency Investors Seek Value Audit Certifies Accuracy Better Governance
The Basics Demand Attention and Spending: Security, Governance, Transparency
Lower spending, less attention to next-generation applications
2004-06: 50% annual increases in spending for “basic” applications to ensure security, governance and transparency
Enterprise Security Creative Accounting Secrecy, Confidentiality Investors Seek Big Ideas Audit Provides Opinions Better Management
The World in1995-2002
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 45
Basel II (Financial Services, world-wide) [pending]
Sarbanes-Oxley (All industries,USA)
Turnbull (All industries, UK)
Data Protection Directives (EU)
Database Security Breach Notification Act (California)
Regulation is Tightening on Corporate Governance Management, Privacy and Security
IFRS (accounting, Australia)
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 46
This Next Wave of Technology Will Cause Massive Disruption in the IT Workforce and Societies
IT professionals that are now employed to perform administration and maintenance functions must upgrade their skills
Infrastructure becomes more reliable and robust
Application development shifts to a service model
Programmers also must upgrade their skill sets. Assembly overtakes coding.
Secure robust, wireless networks will reach critical mass
Broadband, wireless, Linux, content management, real-time analytics, data mining, security, middleware and certification skills will be highly valued
Global, ubiquitous communications
Arbitrage of costs, global delivery modelsReplacement or reduction of entire industries
Bob Hayward
Technology Trends 2004-2008
These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -- [email protected].