PRIORITIES FOR VIETNAM AGRICULTURE – SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES

WITH THE REGION

Nguyen Van Bo, VAAS

Planning Meeting for CIAT Asia Hanoi, 20 February 2014

GENERAL INFORMATION ON VN AGRICULTURE COMPARED WITH

SELECTED ASEAN COUNTRIES

VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (1)

Country Area

1000ha

Populat.

millions

Agr.

land,%

Irrigated

1000ha

Indonesia 181,157 246.9 30.1 6,722

Myanmar 65,351 52.8 19.2 2,250

Thailand 51,089 66.8 41.2 6,415

Malaysia 32,866 29.2 24.0 365

Vietnam 31,007 88.8 (3) 35.0 (2) 4,600

Philippines 29,817 96.7 40.6 1,525

Laos 23,080 6.6 10.3 300

Cambodia 17,652 14.9 32.0 285

Source: World Factbook (www.cia.gov)

VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (2)

Country GDP

US Bill.

GDP/cap USD

Agr.value% GDP

Indonesia 878.2 3,557 14.0

Thailand 366.0 5,480 12.0

Malaysia 303.5 10,381 11.0

Philippines 250.2 2,587 12.0

Vietnam 141.7 (5) 1,596 (5) 22.0 (5)

Cambodia 14.1 946 36.0

Laos 9.3 1,399 75.1

Source: World Factbook (www.cia.gov)

Trade and FDI, Millions USSD

Country Total Trade. FDISingapore 775,153 63,997

Thailand 458,904 7,778

Malaysia 415,722 12,001

Indonesia 380,932 19,242

Vietnam 199,852 7,430

Philippines 111,752 1,262

Myanmar 14,925 -

Brunei 14,822 1,208

Cambodia 12,844 892

Laos 3,956 301

ASEAN 2,045,731 114,111

Source: Richard Silberglitt. Symposium on Integrated Foresight for Sustainable Economic Development and Eco-Resilience in ASEAN Countries. Thailand, 1– 2 October 2013

Security index score (1-5)

Country Food Water EnergySingapore 4.0 3.4 4.5

Brunei 3.5 3.0 4.0

Malaysia 3.2 3.4 4.0

Thailand 3.0 2.2 4.0

Vietnam 2.4 1.8 1.5

Indonesia 2.3 2.6 2.5

Phillipines 2.3 2.2 1.5

Myanmar 2.0 2.2 3.0

Laos 1.8 2.6 2.0

Cambodia 1.6 1.6 3.0

Source: Richard Silberglitt. Symposium on Integrated Foresight for Sustainable Economic Development and Eco-Resilience in ASEAN Countries. Thailand, 1– 2 October 2013

CROPS PRODUCTION, 2013

Crops Area

1000ha

Production 1000 tons

Export

1000 tons Mil.USD

Rice 7,899.9 44,076.1 6,653(-17.3%) 3,730 (-27.3)

Maize 1,157.5 5151.1 - -

Coffee 635.2 1,322.1 1,308 (-15.5) 2,740 (-15.4)

Rubber 974.1 934.5 1,023 (+6.5) 2,856 (-11.7)

Tea (Fresh) 130.0 939.4 148 (-0.4%) 230 (+0.2)

Cashew 310.0 285.0 264 (+19.9) 1,654 (+12.6)

Pepper 62.6 123.4 134 (+14.5) 899 (+13.2)

Cassava 547.8 9,740.0 3,142 (-15.7) 1,102 (-18.5)

Veget. 834.5 14,815.0 1,095 (+32.0)Fruit 784.0 8,047.0

MARD, 2014

ANIMAL PRODUCTION 2012

• Pigs: 26.25 mil (- 0.90%)• Poultry: 314.75 mil. (+ 3.0%)• Buffoloes: 2.56 mil. (- 2.6%)• Beef cattle: 5.16 mil. (- 0.7%)• Diary cattle: 186,300 (+11.6%)• Meat Pricduction: 4,36 miltons (+1.5%), • Milk: 425,400 tons (+10.5%) • Animal Feed Eq.: 13.6 mil tons (+7.1)

Agriculture Export Value, Mil. USD

Sectors 2012 2013

Crops Prod. 14,997 13,139

Forestry 4,932 5,805

Fishery 6,154 6,167

Others (Milk, Veget. oils, Sugar

1,458

Export Total 27,541 27,764

Import Total 16,937 18,945

Export Surplus 10,604 8,819

Source: MARD, 2013-2014

PROBLEMS FACING

1. Limited in Agricultural Land (World average: 1.20 ha/capita; Vietnam: 0.104ha or 8.7% and reducing)

2. Population Pressure. 90 mil. (1/11/2013). VN ranking 14th in population and 65th in natural area

3. Productivity Ceiling4. Product Quality and Safety5. High Production Cost6. Relatively low competitiveness

CHALLENGES IN AGRICULTURE

Period %

1995-2000 4.01

2001-2005 3.83

2006-2010 3.30

Source: GSO

GDP Growth in Agriculture

Rice Productivity Growth, %

1990-95 1996-2000 2011-05 2006-2010

3.05 2.84 2.91 1.72

Source: GSO

Agricultural productivity in selected countries

Unit: USD/person/year

Structure of Agricultural Land Area/Household in 2010

Source: CAP based on VLSS 2010

Export Price, USD/tons

2011 2012 2013

Rice 514 461(- 10.3% vs 2011)

410(- 11.1% vs 2012)

Rubber 3,954 2,792(- 29.4% vs 2011)

2,356(- 15.6% vs 2012)

Coffee 2,047 2,122(+ 3.7% vs 2011)

1,500(- 29.3% vs 2012)

Source: Estimated from MARD reports, 2013

Investment Structure

17

Nguồn : Ước lượng từ số liệu của TCTK

Number of Enterprises 2000-2008

Source: GSO

Value Chain of Tea: % of retail Price

Source: 20 years of Science and Technology Development (MARD, 2006)

84%92%

5% 1%3%

1%1%

2%7% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Tesco Own Label Twinings leaf tea

Người trồng chè

Người chế biến trong nước

Thương gia trong nước

Nhà xuất khẩu trong nước

Giá trị ở nước ngoài

Value added per Agricultural labour (US$; Average for 2006-2008 )

IPSARD, 2012

Climate Change Impacts on Vietnam

According to WB, Vietnam is among 5 countries most impacted by Climate Change.

Most impacted countries: % Land Area 1m SLR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Most impacted countries: % Population1m SLR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Vietnam: Climate Change

1. Sea level Raise: Flood, Saltwater intrusion Over the past fifty years, sea level has increased by about 20 cm (2cm/decade)

1. Temperature increase: Drought, Disease modification, cropping pattern change

Over the past 50 years, (1958-2007), annual average temperatures increased by about 0.5 to 0.7oC (+0.10C/decade)

VN AGRICULTURE- SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGS- Food Security at national level- Good irrigation works- Top raking in export of Agricultural Products- Hard working farmers

WEAKNESSESQuantitative productionLow effectivenessLow relative competitivenessLow percentage of deep processingQuality and food safety concern

OPPORTUNITIES

- Global integration (WTO, TPP…)- New land policy and Rural development- S-T development-Better condition for Small and medium enterprises development-- Strong commitment of Government for Agriculture development

CHALLENGES- Sector growth stagnation- Small scale production - Limitation and degradation of natural resources- Food insecurity at household level- Less enterprises investing in agriculture- Severe competition in international market- Climate change - Water resources conflict- Widening gap between the rich and the poor; urban and rural- Higher requirement of market for quality and safety

ORIENTATIONS

OVERALL TARGETS

A. Sustainable Agriculture

B. Prosperous Rural Areas

C. Wealthy Farmers

NEW VISSION FOR AGRICULTURE

Every Decade:

- Production Growth increase by 20%, ensuring food security at national and household levels

- Poverty reduced by 20%

- GHG emission reduced by 20%

PRIORITIES

• Food Security and safety

• Natural disaster mitigation and Environment protection

• Human Resources Development

- GDP Growth:

• 2,6 – 3,0 %/year for 2011 – 2015

• 3,5 – 4,0 %/year for 2016 – 2020

– By 2020, farmers income increases by 2,5 times

– Poverty at 12% with reduction by 2% per year

– % of Villages meeting criteria of new rural model: 20% by

2015 and 50% by 2020

– Forest coverage increase up to 42-43% (2015) and 45%

(2020).

– Agricultural labour: < 46%

OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES

- Priority for development of high

competitive sector and commodities

– Higher investment for post harvest

technology and processing

– Value added improvement;

– Rural industry development

– Product quality and food safety

– Farmers income improvement

Orientations-EconomicOrientations-Economic

VN Export Value VS Global, Mil. USD

Sectors Global Import Value, 2010

VN Export Value, 2012

Fruit-Veget 97,900 805 (0.82%)

Flowers 25,000 60 (0.24%)

Rice 16,818 3,730 (22.2%)

Coffee 7,548 3,740 (49.5%)

Rubber 7,488 2,850 (38.1%)

Tea 6,370 227 (3.56%)

Cashew nut 1,719 1,483 (86.3%)

Pepper 1,761 802 (45.5%)

Total 1,361,853 14,997 (1,10%)

Orientations-SocialOrientations-Social

Ensuring in sustainability in equity and

access to landuse and other resources (credit,

education, healthcare, …) Rural infrastructure improvement and public

service Improvement food security at household level Approaching to nutrition security Policy for the poors Labour’s skill training Development rural enterprises

1. Mitigation Sustainable management of natural resources

Strengthening capacity in early warning of natural disasters and disease

Green growth and biodiversity conservation

GHG Emission reduction

Orientations-EnvironmentOrientations-Environment

2. Adaptation Manure, residue, waste management;

Farming technology improvement (C, N control) Varieties improvement: Flood, salt, heat, disease tolerance Bioenergy (Bioethanol/ Diesel, Biochar)

Orientations-EnvironmentOrientations-Environment

MEASURES

• Sector Production Restructuring with emphasis on high-value and deep processing

• Science and Technology

• Infrastruction improvement

• International Integration

• Administration Governance Improvement

SECTOR RESTRUCTURINGTO 2020

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING

Realizing relative advantages of market,

products and agro-climatic condition;

Post harvest and deep processing

improvement

S-T development with focusing on high-tech,

new crop varieties development, VietGAP.

Development of trade mark and labelling

Market development

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (2)

1. Rice: Sustaining at area of 3.8 mil.ha (7.0 mil

ha of planted area), Production of 45 mil. Tons

of paddy. High atention to high quality,

tolerant to abiotic and biotic stresses.

2. Maize: Meeting domestic demand of 8.5 mil

tons (now: 4.8 mil. tons)

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (3)

1. Coffee: Sustaining at 0.5 mil.ha;

replanting 150,000ha

- Postharvest technology development

- Deep processing and

- Trade mark development

2. Rubber: 0.8 mil. ha; Intensive farming

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (4)

3. Cashewnut: 0.4 mil. ha; Varieties

improvement; Intensive farming

4. Black pepper: 50,000 ha; Varieties

improvement, Disease management

5. Tea: 140,000 ha, Varieties

improvement; Merchanization in

harvesting; Diversification of products

ANIMAL PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING

Growth at 7–8 %/year, the share in agricultural GDP:

21,5%)

Transfer from small and dissected scale to medium

and industrial scale.

Moving animal farms from high density population to

lower population density

Relative animal structure to relative increase poultry

and diary cattle.

Animal feed crops toward replacing import

FISHERY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING

Growth at 11%/years; the share in agricultural

GDP: 335%

Increase the share of aquaculture and offshore

catching

Intensification of key products

Quality and Safety meeting market standard

Structure improvement and environment

management

FORESTRY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING

Growth at 4%/years;

Forest coverage: 42-45%

Economic forest intensification

Transfer from fast growing forest tree to higher

wood quality

Strengthening wood processing

Agro-forestry development

Improving income for farmers

MESSAGES

• VN is and still will be Agriculture-based economy.

• Key products are for export, so need to improve competitiveness

• Higher profit from farming• Higher income for farmers• Harmonizing Agriculture-Rural and

Farmers Development

VIETNAM-CIAT COLLABORATION

THROUGH PICTURES

CIAT DG, Dr. Joachim Voss at VAAS

45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi

MARD Vice Minister, Dr. Bui Ba Bong at 45th CIAT Anniversary

45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi

Inauguration of CIAT Regional Office at AGI/VAAS

CIAT DG, Dr. Ruben Echeverria and CIAT Team at VAAS

Cassava Network Meeting in Hanoi

CIAT BOT in Hanoi

Dr. CIAT Invalid, Dr. Rod Lefroy on Field Day

Medal Awarding for Dr. Rod Lefroy at 45th CIAT Anniversary

CIAT DDG, Dr.Albin Hubscher and Reginal Director, Dr. Rod Lefroy at VAAS