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BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit Seattle, May 10-11, 2017

BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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Page 1: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

BMO Timber and Wood

Products Summit

Seattle, May 10-11, 2017

Page 2: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

2

This presentation and comments associated with it contain

forward-looking statements including statements relating to U.S.

housing recovery, the potential for constrained lumber supply,

energy-related opportunities, earnings sensitivity and estimated

annual capital expenditures. These statements are subject to

the cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2016

Annual Management’s Discussion & Analysis which can be

accessed on the Company website www.westfraser.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Page 3: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

3

West Fraser Then and Now

THEN

NOW

From humble beginnings to North America’s largest lumber producer

Page 4: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

4

Wood is Good

Source: reTHINK Wood

Wood is an ideal building material

Page 5: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

5

Lumber

Plywood Remanufacturers

Sawdust and shavings Chips Bark (Fuel)

BCTMP Pulp MDF NBSK Pulp Supply agreements

(e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity

Integration - We Attain Value from 100% of Our Resources

Sustainably managed

forest lands

Reforestation

Bioproducts

Integrated fiber strategy to maximize the value of the log

Page 6: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

6

• In the last 3 years we’ve planted more than

180 million trees

• West Fraser manages 7 million hectares

of certified sustainably managed forests

• We’ve planted more than 1.6 billion

trees since 1955

• We plant approximately two trees for every

tree we harvest

• Planted in a line, 1.6 billion trees would

circle the earth 15 times

Sustainable Forest Management

Continuously renewing the resource

Page 7: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

Market Overview

Page 8: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

8

U.S. Lumber End Use

U.S. Lumber End-use 2016 U.S. Lumber End-use Normalized

Source: FEA and WF

Single Family Construction,

26%

Multifamily Construction, 4%

Residential Improvements,

38%

Industrial Production, 27%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 5%

Single Family Construction,

31%

Multifamily Construction, 4%

Residential Improvements,

35%

Industrial Production, 24%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 6%

Residential construction and renovation the key driver of lumber demand

Page 9: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

9

U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Improve

Existing home sales continue to improve albeit with low inventories

Source: National Association of Realtors

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1,400

1,900

2,400

2,900

3,400

3,900

4,400

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Mo

nth

s S

up

ply

00

0's

un

its

Existing Housing Inventory

Inventory Months supply

2,200

3,200

4,200

5,200

6,200

7,200

8,200

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Existing House Sales Annualized (000)

Page 10: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

10

U.S. Housing Starts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, West Fraser Forecast

Expect that the recovery has room to continue

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Thousands

Total Single Multi Underlying Demand

Page 11: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

11

North American Lumber Consumption

75 72

64

51

39 43 43

45 48

51 53

56 58 60

62 64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

U.S. Consumption Canadian Consumption

Bill

ion

Bf

Source: US Census Bureau, Statistics Canada, West Fraser Forecast

Demand for lumber expected to grow by 2B board feet per year

Page 12: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

12

North American Lumber Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

U.S. Canada Canada West (R Axis)

Canada East (R Axis) US West (R Axis) US South (R Axis)

Bill

ion

Bf

Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada, West Fraser Forecast

Lumber production growth constrained

Page 13: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

13

North American Lumber Supply & Demand

Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada, West Fraser Forecast

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Production Demand On North American Mills

Bill

ion

Bf

Imports 2005: 3 billion

Imports 2016: 900 million 2020:

4.3 billion

Potentially growing gap in lumber supply

Page 14: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

14

North American Lumber Capacity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

We

st F

rase

r

Can

for

We

yco

Inte

rfo

r

GP

Sie

rra

Pac

ific

Re

solu

te

Tolk

o

Ham

pto

n

We

ste

rn

Mmfbm Top 10 Lumber Capacity

Top 10 make up 44% of Capacity

West Fraser has largest share of a growing market

Source: Company reports, FEA

Page 15: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

15

China Imports of Logs and Lumber (M M3)

Source: General Administration of Customs of The People’s Republic of China

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lumber Logs

Demand from China continues to grow

Page 16: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

16

North American Offshore Lumber Exports

2.7 3.0

3.2 3.2 3.5

4.8

6.5 6.5

6.9

6.3

5.9 5.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Offshore Exports US Offshore Exports Canada Total

Bill

ion

Bf

Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada

Volume has been directed away from export markets

Page 17: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

17

Returns on Lumber

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Q1

-17

Ebitda Margin (%)- Lumber

Average: 15.7%

Current margins above long term average

Page 18: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

West Fraser Overview

Page 19: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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Our Strategy

Operational Excellence

Geographic Diversification

Product Diversification

Integration

Straightforward strategy for success in all market conditions

Page 20: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

20

Operational Excellence

Straightforward, consistent business

model

Internal and external benchmarking

Continuous reinvestment

Cost control and efficiency

Managing to ensure a committed

workforce

Focused on continuous improvement in all aspects of the business

Page 21: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

21

Operations diversified by geography

Geographic diversification

B.C. 38%

Alberta 25%

U.S. 37%

Lumber Capacity

Strong presence in key lumber producing regions

Page 22: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

22

LUMBER 28 mills

PANELS 7 mills

PULP & PAPER 5 mills

SPF 4.1 Bfbm SYP 2.4 Bfbm Total 6.5 Bfbm

Plywood: 850 MMsf3/8” MDF: 250 MMsf3/4” LVL: 3.2 MMcf

NBSK: 570 Mtonnes BCTMP: 680 Mtonnes Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes

Product Diversification

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Lumber Pulp Panels

Diversified across multiple end uses

Page 23: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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Pulp End-Use Products

Printing and

Writing Papers

31%

Tissue 31%

Specialty Papers

19%

Fluff Based

Products 10%

Boxboard 5%

Other 4%

Source: PPPC 2013

Chemical Pulp

Boxboard 44%

Printing & Writing

41%

Specialty Papers

8%

Newsprint 4%

Other 3%

Source: PPPC 2013

Mechanical Pulp

Multiple end uses and markets

Page 24: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

24

• Reinvest profits to lower costs, improve efficiency

through technology and improved processes

• Capital spending in 2016 of $273 million

• Estimated 2017 spending of $300 million and

normalized spending between $175 and $225

million

• Growth through opportunistic acquisitions focused

on solid wood

Capital Strategy

Prudent Capital Deployment

Page 25: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

25

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lumber Pulp Other

$ Millions

West Fraser Capital Spending

• Over the past five years, we’ve spent

approximately $1.4 billion to modernize

our facilities

Reinvesting for long term sustainability

Page 26: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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$1.4B in capital projects

Major rebuilds of 10 sawmills Upgraded 12 planers

Built 6 energy and bioproducts projects

Added 28 continuous kilns

Page 27: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

27

Earnings Summary

2017 Q1 2016 2015

Sales 1,189 4,450 4,100

Adjusted EBITDA 245 674 417

Earnings 123 326 104

Strong Q1 Results

Page 28: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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• Proven ability to generate strong cash flow, even in

worst markets

• Consistent, straightforward business plan

• Loyal, long-term employee and management base

• Conservative financial management coupled with

proven ability to grow strategically

• Strong historical shareholder returns

Why Invest in West Fraser?

Attractive investment fundamentals

Page 29: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2016 2015 2014

WFT CFP IFP

Cdn$ Million

Share Value Traded

Strong liquidity profile

Page 30: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016

Share Buy-back

Dividends

Significant Cash Returned to Shareholders $ M

ILLIO

NS

Flexible capital deployment strategy

Page 31: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

31

June 2006* – April 2017

* June 2006 marked the beginning of the steep decline in U.S. housing starts

Source: TD Bank

12.6%

10.8%

7.9%

5.5% 4.9%

9.8%

8.4%

6.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

West Fraser Dow DAX S&P/TSX FTSE Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C

Annualized Shareholder Return (Cdn$)

Attractive relative returns

Page 32: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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$100 invested: June 2006 to April 2017

Total Shareholder Return (Cdn$)

$366

$306

$230

$180 $168

$277

$242

$204

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

West Fraser Dow DAX S&P/TSX FTSE Competitor

A

Competitor

B

Competitor

C

Source: Toronto Dominion Bank

Page 33: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

33

“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange

www.WestFraser.com

These materials have been prepared by Management of the

Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of

the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an

offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the

Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the

Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer,

solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may

not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior

registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the

applicable registration or qualification requirements.

Page 34: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

34

APPENDIX

Page 35: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

35

Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables (2016)

Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables 1

(based on 2016 production - $ millions)

Factor Variation Change in pre - tax e arnings

Lumber price US$ 1 0 ( per Mfbm ) 80

Plywood price Cdn $ 1 0 ( per Msf ) 8

NBSK price US$ 1 0 ( per tonne ) 7

BCTMP price US$ 1 0 ( pe r tonne ) 9

U.S. – Canadian $ exchange rate 2 US$0.01 ( per Cdn $ ) 30

1. Each sensitivity has been calculated on the basis that all other variables remain constant and assumes year end foreign exchange rates.

2. Excludes exchange impact of translation of U. S. dollar - denominated debt and other monetary items. Reflects the amount of the initial

US$0.01 change; additional changes are substantially, but not exactly, linear.

Page 36: BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit - West Fraser · BMO Timber and Wood Products Summit ... (e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity Integration ... on solid wood Capital Strategy

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Duty Timelines