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BMKG Operation and Service China-ASEAN Meteorological Forum Nanning, China, 11-12 September 2016

BMKG Operation and Service - cma.gov.cn · siklon tropis t c w c - jakarta produknwp (data grib) transmet integrator mews client info maritim - gel. tinggi - siklon tropis warning

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BMKG Operation and ServiceChina-ASEAN Meteorological ForumNanning, China, 11-12 September 2016

I. BMKG Impact Based Forecasting

Background

Accurate and timely hydromet warning ≠ Safety of life

Prevent economic disruption

Hazards Affect People Actions

vulnerability of infrastructurebehaviour of people

Hydromet warning

1.

2.

3.

WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services WMO No. 1150

Weather, Impact-based and Impact Forecast and Warnings

Paradigm 1 Only atmospheric variables and how they are expected

to change.Forecasting weather-based

hazards only.

“Severe thunderstorms are expected today with wind gusts exceeding 60

mph.”

Weather forecast & warningHazard only

Paradigm 3 Provide detailed information down to the

individual, activity or community level.

The purview of partnering agencies rather than the role

of the NMHS itself

“Extensive traffic delays in Kensington may occur due

to the risk of large trees downing power lines and blocking roads as a result of severe thunderstorms”

Impact forecasts and warnings

Hazard, vulnerability and exposure

Paradigm 2

Express the expected impacts as a result of the

expected weather.

“Severe thunderstorms with gusts over 60 mph will result in damage to trees and power lines.”

Impact-based forecasts and warnings

Hazard and vulnerability only

WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services WMO No. 1150

The evolution from general weather forecasts to impact warnings

Evolving warning paradigm(heavy rain event as example)

Factors incorporated

General forecast

A cold, windy, wet day tomorrow with spells of very heavy rain expected in the afternoon and evening.

Hazard

Impact-based

warning

Rainfall accumulations of 20 mm to 30 mm expected tomorrow between 1400 and midnight, resulting in possible road closures due to flooding across the south-east.

Hazard Vulnerability

Impact warning

Expect journey times on the A111 likely to be lengthened by an hour because of significant traffic disruption in the south-east tomorrow afternoon due to localized flooding which is expected to follow a heavy rain event.

Hazard Vulnerability

Exposure

WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services WMO No. 1150

heavy rain

Rainfall accumulations

road closures due to flooding

journey times lengthened significant traffic disruption

localized flooding heavy rain event

Risk matrix

WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services WMO No. 1150

Railways

Roads

BMKG Impact Based Forecast

Fire Weather Index (FWI)

Forecast Data (WRF)

Observation Data (H-1)

Initial condition

Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) & Fire Weather Index (FWI)

TemperatureRelative Humidity

Wind Speed &DirectionRain rate

TemperatureRelative Humidity

Wind Speed &DirectionRain rate

II. BMKG in supporting Disaster Risk Management

Upper ground wetness level

Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC)

FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM

Hotspot InformationData Input: Modis (Terra & Aqua Satellite)

ü Hotspot number estimateü Hotspot location estimate

http://satelit.bmkg.go.id/satelit/modis/hotspot/

FOREST FIRE SMOKE TRAJECTORYFOR WEST KALIMANTAN

(25-27 FEBRUARY 2014, 01.00 LT)

Note:Forest fire smoke height:

= 10 m (trees)= 1 m (bush)

Hotspot Location:1. Melawah2. Sungaipinyuh3. Toba4. Sungaikakap5. Rasaujaya

At the aforementioned level:Most of air mass at the forest fire smoke trajectory tracked to south and southeast.

Distribution of brownish smoke comes from fires

Volcanic ash from Rinjani eruption November 2015

Smoke and Volcanic Ash Monitoring

Peta Prakiraan Intensitas Curah Hujan dan Potensi Banjir DKI Jakarta

Automatic Production

Weather Forecast – Online Application • Website• @InfoBMKG Twitter account• BMKG Mobile Apps

BMKG Weather Info App

Area of Responsibility Area of Monitoring

III. BMKG Tropical Cyclone Warning Operational

JAKARTA TCWC AREA OF MONITORING AND RESPONSIBILITY

Jakarta tropical Cyclone Warning Center

Cyclone Name Life Duration

Maximum IntensityMax Wind

Min Pressure Category

DURGA 22 - 24 April 2008 60  984 2 

ANGGREK 29 Sept - 04 Nov 2010 80 954 3

BAKUNG 11 – 13 Dec 2014 55 998 2

Since 2007 there are 3 cyclone formed in Jakarta TCWC Area of Responsibility:

No. Product Name Format Frequency of issuance

Languange Remarks

1. Extreme weather warning Text 6 hourly English & Indonesia

2. TV Crawler messages Text Indonesia3. High seas warning Text 6 hourly English &

IndonesiaInternational exchange

4. Coastal Zone Warning Text 6 hourly English & Indonesia

5. TC Technical Bulletin Text 6 hourly English & Indonesia

6. TC P u b l i c I n fo r m a t i o n Bulletin

Text 6 hourly Indonesia

7. TC Outlook Text Daily English & Indonesia

8. TC Aviation Advisory Text 6 hourly English9. CREX Text 6 hourly English

10. TC Track & Impact map Graphical 6 hourly English & Indonesia

11. Extreme Weather map Graphical English & Indonesia

Products

TC Track and Impact Map

BMKG for better forecast

BMKG developing:• Service delivery• Forecast verification study• NWP development • Capacity building

THANK YOU

PEMDA

MEDIA MASSA

INSTITUTION INTERFACE

PRESIDEN RI

CYCLONE MONITORING

SIKLON TROPIS

T C W C - JAKARTA

PRODUKNWP (Data Grib)

TRANSMET

INTEGRATOR MEWS CLIENT

INFO MARITIM

- GEL. TINGGI

- SIKLON TROPIS WARNING

1

AWOSAWS

SATELIT (8)

-RADAR (22)

AWS/ARG (120)

1

2 3

4 5

6

SATELIT

RADAR

BNPB

INFO PENERBANGAN

- SIGMET

STAMAR

STAMET PENERBANGAN

ADPEL

USER PENERBANGAN

REGIONAL CENRE

INFO METEOROLOGI PUBLIK

- HUJAN LEBAT

- POTENSI BANJIR

- ANGIN KENCANG

- GELOMBANG TINGGI

- INFO BADAI DAN SIKLON

GUBERNUR BNPB

DAERAH

MEDIA

MASSA

INSTITUTION

INTERFACE

KETERANGANT C W C – TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTERMEWS – METEOROLOGICAL EARLY WARNING CENTER

METEO FRANCE

ARPEGE MODEL

BOM-AUSTRALIA

TXLAPS MODEL

67

7

4

5

7

71

CMSS

HASIL OBSERVASI

INFO METEOROLOGI PUBLIK - HUJAN LEBAT - POTENSI BANJIR - ANGIN KENCANG - GELOMBANG TINGGI - INFO BADAI DAN SIKLON

END TO END SYSTEM OF MEWS

Phone Services

NWP DATA INPUT FROM VARIOUS MODEL

(ARPEGE, TXLAPS, ECMWF, UK, US, JMA)

SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION

DATA INPUTFaximile

Website

Satellite Data Input

Radar Data Input

INTERNAL WEB SERVER

DENPASAR TCWC (BACKUP SYSTEM)

1.

2.

FORECASTER WORKSTATIONS

MEDIA DISPLAY

RADAR DISPLAY

3.

5.

VIDEO EDITING

TV Station

BMG STATIONS

JAKARTA TCWC OPERATIONAL DESIGN 6.

7.

CMSS LINK

APPLICATION SERVER

DATABASE SERVER

4.