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October 2015Market Commentary 02Commodity Performance BCOM 07 Roll Select 08 Historical 09Contribution to Return & Weights 10Commodity Volatility Realized 11 Implied 12 Historical Realized 13Commodity Correlation Composites 14 Singles 15 US CPI Indices 16 Country CPI 17 Country GDP 18Commitment of Traders Report Monthly Notional Change & Correlation 19 Historical Net Positions 20Commodity Inventories & Sales Monthly Change & Correlation 22 Historical Levels 23Commodity ETP Flows 25Term Structures 26BI Dashboards 28Bloomberg Cheat Sheet 29
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TABLES & CHARTS(BCOM)BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX
Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) finished October down 0.5%, down 16.2% YTD
• After an initial rally in early October, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) finished the month down 0.5% as crude oilcouldn't sustain a rally over $50 and industrial metals continued to fall.
• BCOM is down 16.2% year-to-date after touching a 16-year low in August and headed for the fifth straight annual loss, thelongest slide on records dating to 1991.
• Natural gas lead the 3.3% decline in the energy sector in October, collapsing 13.4% and erasing any positive price performanceseen from WTI and Brent crude oil prices (up 2.6% and 1.2% respectively).
• Money managers increased their exposure to BCOM commodities by $16.6 billion in October. Exposure to sugar spiked by $2.4billion in October and the bulls enjoyed a 12.7% rally, the biggest advance for sugar since 2013 amid a looming global shortageas weather poses a threat to production.
ENERGY (32.6% weight in BCOM)
Crude oil ended the month below $50 a barrel for the fourth time as OPEC pumps above its quota and U.S. crude inventories rose to more than 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average. This year, WTI has averaged about $51 a barrel, more than 40% below the five-year mean. Futures have slumped more than 45% in the past year amid a global glut that the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates will remain until at least the middle of 2016. Prices however witnessed a 6.3% jump at the end of October as increasing U.S. refinery activity signaled the end of seasonal maintenance and higher crude demand. U.S. refiners typically slow during September and October to perform maintenance during a low fuel demand period. Notably though, refiners are showing signs of slowing down after an unprecedented rise in U.S. crude production combined with a ban on most exports left them awash in crude and sent them on a five-year bull run. Now that producers have put the brakes on drilling with drillers slashing investments in exploration and production by a record 20% this year, according to IEA, that advantage is eroding and profit margins from turning oil into gasoline and diesel fell to the lowest level since 2010.
While OPEC has exceeded its official production target for 16 consecutive months as the group seeks to defend sales amid a global supply glut, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is storing record amounts of crude in its quest to maintain market share as it cut shipments. Commercial crude stockpiles in August rose to 326.6 million barrels, the highest since at least 2002; while exports dropped to 7 million barrels a day from 7.28 million. Saudi Arabia is responding to the decline in crude, which accounts for about 80% of revenue, by tapping foreign reserves, cutting spending, delaying projects and selling bonds. Net foreign assets fell by about $82 billion at the end of August after reaching an all-time high last year. The country has raised 55 billion riyals ($15 billion) from debt issuance this year. Apparently, Saudi Arabia is delaying payments to government contractors as the slump in oil prices pushes the country into a deficit for the first time since 2009, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Companies working on infrastructure projects have been waiting for six months or more for payments as the government seeks to preserve cash, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. Delays have increased this year and the government has also been seeking to cut prices on contracts.
According to the IEA, global oil markets will remain oversupplied next year as demand growth slows from this year’s five-year high amid a weaker outlook for the world economy and increasing Iranian exports following the lifting of sanctions. In contrast, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said at a conference in Kuwait City he is hoping to see a more balanced market in 2016 as he expects that the oil industry’s “best days are yet to come” as demand will grow to 110 million barrels a day by 2040. The gap in crude oil supply and demand is due to close in the third quarter of 2016, Mohammad Ghazi Al-Mutairi, chief executive officer of state-run Kuwait National Petroleum Co., said at the same event.
According to the head of Abu Dhabi’s Department of Economic Development, oil at $50 a barrel is a “gift to the world” as prices should be low enough to spur economic growth. “Would we like for oil to stay at $50? Absolutely not. We would like oil to go to $70, $80, but beyond that I think it would hurt the economic growth”, Ali Al Mansoori, the department’s chairman, said. Mansoori said that prices will probably be at $60 next year, after hitting bottom at $45. For Europe’s biggest oil companies, $60 is the magic number. BP, one of the first companies to predict a prolonged price downturn, has “reset” its business to generate surplus cash flow with oil at about $60 a barrel by 2017. It joins Total, which last month unveiled investment cutbacks and project delays that will enable it to fund dividend payouts in the same circumstances without the need to borrow.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc reported its biggest net loss in at least 16 years after Europe’s largest energy group abandoned some projects and lowered its oil-price expectations, resulting in a charge of almost $8 billion. The loss highlights the pain oil and gas companies are enduring as prices plunge, forcing them into the biggest belt-tightening in a generation. The oil price rout has wiped almost $500 billion since the end of last year from Bloomberg World Oil & Gas Index, which tracks energy stocks globally including Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron. As of August, one out of every eight junk-rated oil companies was in danger of defaulting, according to Moody’s. As a result, more than $200 billion worth of oil and natural gas assets are for sale globally as companies come under renewed financial pressure from the prolonged commodity price rout, according to HIS, with about 400 buying opportunities as of September. Deals will accelerate later this year and into 2016 as companies sell assets to meet debt requirements, as producers face debt payments that are more than 20% of their revenue. Companies have announced $181.1 billion of oil and gas acquisitions this year,
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the most in more than a decade, compared with $167.1 billion the same period in 2014.
Explorers are expected to slash spending on deepwater wells by 20% to 25% next year, compared with a 3% to 8% overall reduction on all types of fields this year, according to Barclays Plc analysts.. The type of giant reservoirs that require megaproject treatment are now found in only the roughest, deepest and coldest parts of the world. International producers are failing to deliver 80% of megaprojects on time and on budget, compared with about 50% in 2005, said Neeraj Nandurdikar, oil and gas director at Independent Project Analysis Inc. Only 10% of non-shale discoveries this year will be profitable, down from 40% in 2010, said Julie Wilson, a senior exploration analyst at Wood Mackenzie. Cost overruns have afflicted 64% of oil and gas megaprojects and 73% of them have faced delays, according to an Ernst & Young LLP survey of 365 developments.
The proposed sale of 58 million barrels of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is expected to have a minimal impact on prices, according to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). Under the Oct. 27 agreement, five million barrels of oil will be sold in 2018, the first year of sales. That number will increase in subsequent years, with 10 million barrels slated for sale in 2023, 2024 and 2025. At the current WTI price, this equals $2.5 billion, although the Congressional Budget Office predicted oil would cost $75 to $96 over the period, bringing a total estimated sale price of just over $5 billion. The U.S. consumes about 7 billion barrels of oil each year, so the drawdown in reserves is small relative to the size of the market. The proposed sale equates to more than 8% of the 695 million barrels of reserves, held in four sites along the Gulf of Mexico coast.
The discount between U.S. and global crude narrowed to $2.97 in October, less than half of the spread two months ago (and less than a quarter from this year's low of 12.82 back in February). The discount on front-month U.S. crude futures widened to the most in five months after inventories reached the highest level for the season in 85 years.
Diesel and gasoline account for more than half of China's demand for oil products. Diesel demand in China may remain weak as the economy shifts away from heavy industry to services and higher-margin manufacturing. Diesel consumption's growth trend has tracked China's industrial output growth in the past five years, diverging in 1H due to lower prices compared to a year earlier. After a year of persistently cheap oil, diesel demand swung from 5.7% growth in 2Q to a 0.4% contraction in 3Q, in line with the deceleration of China's industrial output and economic growth. China's demand for gasoline is growing much faster than for diesel, thanks to the steady increase in passenger-car sales over the past several years. China continues to regulate refined-oil retail prices, but now adjusts them every 10 working days rather than every 22 days previously. This pricing mechanism may become more market-oriented in future.
On Oct. 27, natural gas fell to lowest since April 2012, dipping below $2 per million British thermal units before recovering 11% the following day to finish the month at $2.25. Unusually warm weather for this time of year is threatening to crimp gas demand just as caverns and reservoirs are filling up with supplies. Money managers raised bearish gas bets to an all-time high.
GRAINS (22.8% weight in BCOM)
Iran, the second-largest wheat user in the Middle East, has plans to export 400,000 metric tons of the grain after domestic supplies expanded enough to meet local demand. Iran bought 8.08 million tons of wheat from local farmers this year, 1.4 million tons more than last year, Ali Ghanbari, deputy agriculture minister, said. Iran ranks with Turkey as the second-largest wheat buyer in the Middle East, behind Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data. Iran won’t need to import wheat because local supplies are sufficient, Ghanbari said. Stockpiles will be 8.3 million tons for 2015, compared with the average of 3.1 million for 2012 to 2014, according to the Food & Agriculture Organization. Wheat production is estimated by the USDA to grow to 14 million tons from 13 million a year earlier with consumption rising to 18 million tons from 17.5 million.
Brazilian corn farmers are enjoying the rare combination of a bumper harvest and higher export prices thanks to the near record low level of the local currency. The price of corn, denominated in the real, is up more than 40% from a year earlier at Paranagua, one of Brazil's busiest ports. During that period, the currency tumbled in the worst performance among the world's biggest countries. Brazil's shipments peak from August to December following the winter harvest, or "safrinha". It's planted in February or March and harvested in June or July. This can be seen by charting BZCOTTBE Index ("Brazil Major Ports Corn Cargo - Berthed Total Tonnage").
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Brazil's near-record corn harvest can be seen by typing "Brazil total corn production", making the selection and choosing 'Line Chart' from the menu functions. The screen will show Brazil's corn production near the record high of 84.7 million metric tons in 2014 (see ticker CBSCPRBR Index GP <GO>).
Newly seeded winter wheat in Kansas needs a drink. Half of the state, the top U.S. grower of the grain, was rated “abnormally dry” in October, up from 7% two months ago, U.S. Drought Monitor data showed. Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas got less than 50% of the normal amount of rain in the past 30 days, according to National Weather Service data. While the rating dropped from a year earlier, farms in some areas are lacking topsoil moisture needed to help seeds germinate and develop roots before winter dormancy, said Justin Gilpin, the chief executive officer of Kansas Wheat.
The U.S. corn harvest was 75% complete on Oct. 25 vs. a five-year average of 68% at the same date, reducing the risk of autumn frost damage. The harvest may be somewhat slower given wet weather is expected in the Midwest, though currently warmer than usual weather is aiding farmers' progress. Overall favorable weather conditions during the past five weeks have helped the corn crop to mature, allowing farmers that were 5% behind the five-year average on Sept. 20 to gather in the crop at a faster rate.
Last year, grain handlers had no kind words for Warren Buffett’s BNSF Railway Co. After record U.S. harvests, crops piled up all across the Midwest, with few rail cars available to get them to buyers because they were being used to ship more oil and coal. It’s different now. While farmers are harvesting almost as much this year, the logjams are long gone, said the South Dakota Wheat Growers Association, a cooperative with 20 loading depots served by BNSF. U.S. rail shipments of grain are the highest in five years, and costs are down from 2014, when delays could last more than two months and compounded the slumping value of crops that had nowhere to go.
INDUSTRIAL METALS (15.0% weight in BCOM)
For copper bulls betting on more mining companies cutting production like Glencore Plc, the news out of Chile isn’t good. Codelco, the world’s biggest copper producer, is maintaining output targets and warning investors not to expect any dramatic changes to its record investment plans. Codelco’s mines probably will remain profitable even as concern over Chinese demand is set to keep prices low in the coming years, Chairman Oscar Landerretche said in an interview. While there will be minor revisions, the majority of a $25 billion, five-year investment plan to help replace aging deposits will be rolled out as planned, he said. Unlike the third-biggest copper miner Glencore - whose decisions to reduce output of copper and zinc have helped ignite a rebound from prices near six-year lows - Codelco will push ahead with its annual target of producing 1.6 million to 1.7 million metric tons this year and next year. Copper may reach a low of $4,450 a ton by 2017, based on the median from 16 responses in a Bloomberg survey. That’s 13% below the price at the end of October.
Chinese companies buying overseas mines have focused on iron ore, copper and bauxite, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. The investments in mining resources abroad surged to $24.8 billion in 2013 from $1.8 billion in 2004, according to the ministry. Deals continued last year even amid the slump in metal prices, as China seeks to secure supplies. Some acquired mines had higher-than-expected costs and delays in ramping up production because of a lack of operational expertise in running overseas projects.
China's refined zinc demand may rise 4.8% in 2015, driven by galvanized steel output and infrastructure expansion. This may help
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global refined zinc demand increase 3.7% to 14.14 million metric tons, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. China accounted for half of the world's refined zinc consumption in 2014. Refined zinc production may reach 13.84 million tons in 2015, leaving the market in a deficit.
Aluminum is headed for its longest slump since 2009 as China, the world’s biggest producer, is churning out more supplies, adding to the outlook for a global glut. In a survey at the London Metal Exchange’s annual gathering 58% of traders and executives picked aluminum as their “favorite short”. Aluminum is down more than 20% this year, and U.S. premiums - the amount added to LME supplies for immediate delivery - are at a four-year low. BNP Paribas forecasts a 1 million-metric ton surplus for 2015, citing in an Oct. 8 report the need for more producer cuts, particularly in China. The Asian nation exported 350,000 tons of aluminum metal and products in September, up 2.8% from the previous month.
Iron ore is sinking back toward $50 a metric ton as expanding low-cost supply and sputtering demand in China spur concern a global glut will persist into 2016, with Goldman Sachs forecasting significant losses. Katie Hudson, managing director and senior investment manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management Australia Pty, said that “the major producers are adding incremental volume at around $20 a ton, that gives you a sense of where the vulnerability is.” The renewed decline shows that the global market has yet to reach a balance as the biggest miners boost cheap output while steel consumption contracts in China. With many mills in China losing money as steel prices languish, Shanghai Baosteel Group Corp. Chairman Xu Lejiang has forecast nationwide output may eventually slump 20%.
PRECIOUS METALS (17.0% weight in BCOM)
Gold has slumped about 5% in the past year as the U.S. economic recovery gained momentum, fueling speculation the country may be strong enough to withstand a global slowdown and tackle the first interest rate increase since 2006. Higher borrowing costs curb the allure of gold by making it less competitive against assets that pay interest, such as bonds. Goldman Sachs remains bearish, with analysts saying in a report dated Oct. 21 that they expect the Fed to act in December, with additional rate increases expected through 2016. The bank forecasts the metal will fall to $1,100 in three months and $1,000 in a year. Prices are heading for a third straight annual slump, the worst performance since 1998, as low inflation and a stronger dollar cut the appeal of the metal as a store of value. Barrick Gold, however, believes the metal will rebound as early as 2016. The world’s biggest producer of the metal believes that purchases from central banks and supply that’s insufficient to meet demand will help spur the turnaround.
The number of funds with long positions in the metal jumped 26% to 98 as of Oct. 20, the CFTC data show. That’s the highest since November 2012. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion rose five times in the past six weeks.
SOFTS (7.9% weight in BCOM)
Sugar is witnessing the biggest advance for the commodity since 2013 amid a looming global shortage. Money managers have more than tripled their bullish wagers in just two weeks, increasing their net-long position to the highest in more than a year. A strengthening El Nino weather pattern is posing a threat to output in Australia just as production declines from mills in India to Brazil, the world’s top grower and exporter. Prices have jumped 8% this month, more than for any of the other 22 components of BCOM. The International Sugar Organization predicts that after five years of surplus, demand will outstrip production in the season that started this month and the deficit will more than double to 6.2 million metric tons the next year. Sugar futures in New York climbed 13% over the past three months, the biggest such gain since 2013. Prices are rebounding after reaching a seven-year low in August, spurred by declines for Brazil’s real that encourage exporters to increase shipments that fetch dollars in return. After too much rain disrupted gathering earlier this season, dry conditions are now threatening next year’s harvest, which could worsen the global deficit. At the same time, cane collected this year has had reduced sucrose content, spurring mills to turn more of the crop into ethanol, rather than sweetener. Only about 42% of the crop this season has been processed into sugar, down from 44% this time last year, industry data show. The Indian Sugar Mills Association said Sept. 28 the nation’s production will drop 4.6% to 27 million tons in the 12 months started Oct. 1. A stronger El Nino would probably bring a lack of rain to the country and further decrease output. China’s production could drop to the lowest in decade, while dryness will also cut supplies in Central American nations and South Africa, according to Australia-based Green Pool Commodity Specialists. This rally “is sustainable because it reflects the new fundamentals,” said Artur Manoel Passos, an economist and commodity analyst with Itau Unibanco Holding SA. “The market has changed since September basically because we and most analysts are changing the expectation for supply. Brazilian capacity to switch from ethanol to sugar is lower because there’s not much more cane to be harvested this year. The real won’t be a factor so important for prices at least until next year’s harvest.” Bigger crops in previous seasons mean that global stockpiles are still plentiful however and in India, the second-biggest grower, the government last month ordered mills to compulsorily ship sugar in a bid to trim inventories and boost local prices.
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While Brazil has long been the biggest producer of all coffee varieties, it mostly grows the higher-end arabica beans. Vietnam dominates the market for the more bitter-tasting robusta variety. When political and economic woes sent the Brazilian real down 38% in the past year, the most among 24 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, that helped reduce production costs for growers and turbo-charged shipments. "The depreciation of the real in the past two years is certainly providing an advantage to Brazilian robusta growers," said Keith Flury, head of coffee research at Volcafe, a unit of ED&F Man Holdings Ltd. “It’s clear producers in Brazil have seen their costs fall more than growers in Vietnam, where the dong hasn’t fallen nearly as fast.” Brazil’s exports of robusta beans jumped 53% to a record 3.08 million bags in the first eight months of 2015 as a weaker real boosted earnings of the commodity sold in dollars, according to exporters’ council Cecafe. In Vietnam, shipments declined 31% to 969,000 metric tons, or 16.1 million bags, from January to September, the General Statistic Office estimates.
LIVESTOCK (4.8% weight in BCOM)
Hog futures slumped in October to the lowest since November 2009 on signs of ebbing pork demand following a jump in supplies, while the World Health Organization’s warning that processed meats are a cancer risk rattled prospects for ham and pork consumption. The Bloomberg Lean Hogs Index fell 11.3% in October. Pork production and frozen inventories in September rose to a record for that month, (USDA) data showed. On Oct. 29, the wholesale price slumped to the lowest since May, according to agency figures.
China, the world’s biggest consumer of pork, agreed to resume meat imports from 14 U.S. plants and warehouses, ending restrictions that has lasted in some cases more than a year, according to the USDA. China had stopped some U.S. exports after finding meat with traces of ractopamine, a drug used to help pigs gain muscle that’s banned in the country. Some plants were banned because of ractopamine while others had labeling issues. Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s largest hog and pork producer, said that meat prices should benefit after China lifted the export restrictions.
Hog farmers nationwide are on alert as cold weather may help spread the PEDv swine virus, which killed millions of pigs in an outbreak that peaked in the winter of 2013-2014. The virus, which can survive weeks or as long as months in low temperatures and moist conditions, will have a greater chance of being transmitted among farms in the winter. The virus has never been eliminated in the U.S. and there are still sporadically new cases that are identified in certain areas.
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Composite Indices
Oct Sep Q3 Q2 3-Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearBloomberg Commodity ER BCOM -0.45% -3.42% -14.48% 4.65% -16.20% -4.74% -25.74% -38.75% -40.63% -47.50% -11.16%Bloomberg Commodity TR BCOMTR -0.45% -3.42% -14.47% 4.66% -16.18% -4.73% -25.72% -38.67% -40.46% -40.77% 44.99%
Bloomberg Commodity Spot BCOMSP 1.26% -2.99% -13.73% 6.17% -10.99% -2.21% -20.76% -33.71% -28.35% 22.81% 169.64%Bloomberg Roll Select BCOMRST -0.16% -3.19% -13.61% 3.43% -15.65% -4.21% -24.55% -36.03% -34.86% -4.46% 221.59%
1 Month Forward BCOMF1T -0.08% -3.35% -14.37% 4.47% -15.59% -4.34% -24.84% -35.98% -36.04% -24.70% 164.23% 2 Month Forward BCOMF2T 0.07% -3.40% -14.23% 3.88% -15.87% -4.14% -24.58% -36.73% -37.18% -16.80% 196.73% 3 Month Forward BCOMF3T 0.12% -3.25% -14.14% 3.69% -15.69% -4.07% -23.86% -35.59% -35.19% -8.73% 208.52% 4 Month Forward BCOMF4T 0.49% -3.21% -13.73% 3.60% -14.84% -3.57% -23.10% -34.30% -32.49% 0.73% 5 Month Forward BCOMF5T 0.48% -3.16% -13.54% 3.44% -14.62% -3.63% -22.82% -34.98% -32.59% 4.75% 6 Month Forward BCOMF6T 0.52% -3.16% -13.28% 3.13% -14.53% -3.46% -22.63% -34.72% -32.31% 9.93%
Energy BCOMENTR -3.32% -9.88% -22.34% 10.92% -23.55% -12.22% -46.66% -52.71% -59.17% -88.82% -5.23%Petroleum BCOMPETR 0.68% -10.37% -24.47% 13.98% -20.65% -7.74% -46.02% -51.07% -45.77% -64.99% 185.46%Agriculture BCOMAGTR 1.58% 2.23% -12.63% 8.29% -12.37% -0.15% -15.03% -36.69% -32.67% 8.79% -22.62%
Grains BCOMGRTR -0.76% 2.86% -13.72% 10.21% -13.36% -1.54% -11.56% -40.84% -28.62% 13.79% -34.73%Industrial Metals BCOMINTR -2.81% -1.35% -11.11% -5.31% -22.54% -6.79% -28.40% -33.83% -47.47% -6.24% 59.21%Precious Metals BCOMPRTR 3.59% -1.25% -5.55% -2.55% -3.42% 4.50% -3.47% -39.87% -23.35% 120.65% 199.37%
Softs BCOMSOTR 7.82% 3.96% -7.53% 1.61% -12.58% 8.41% -21.74% -35.53% -49.42% -31.25% -36.61%Livestock BCOMLITR 0.77% -4.36% -5.38% -1.52% -15.28% -2.53% -18.71% -7.07% -8.18% -50.90% -50.05%Ex-Energy BCOMXETR 1.01% 0.03% -10.08% 1.50% -13.13% -0.76% -16.30% -33.94% -32.33% 17.82% 29.58%
Ex-Petroleum BCOMXPET -0.80% -1.03% -10.70% 1.55% -15.83% -3.71% -21.13% -36.65% -41.18% -37.62%Ex-Agriculture BCOMXAGT -1.31% -5.70% -15.25% 3.21% -17.88% -6.64% -30.32% -39.98% -44.24% -56.49%
Ex-Grains BCOMXGRT -0.37% -4.68% -14.63% 3.55% -16.74% -5.38% -28.40% -38.09% -43.23% -51.21%Ex-Industrial Metals BCOMXIMT -0.02% -3.79% -15.06% 6.63% -14.87% -4.36% -25.29% -39.92% -39.17% -50.46%Ex-Precious Metals BCOMXPMT -1.24% -3.84% -16.06% 6.06% -18.58% -6.46% -29.51% -39.16% -43.68% -50.60%
Ex-Softs BCOMXSOT -1.10% -3.95% -14.96% 4.87% -16.62% -5.71% -26.19% -39.04% -39.96% -42.44%Ex-Livestock BCOMXLIT -0.51% -3.37% -14.90% 4.98% -16.17% -4.85% -26.13% -40.22% -42.05% -40.00%
Ex-Agriculture & Livestock BCOMXALT -1.46% -5.80% -15.93% 3.57% -18.01% -6.94% -31.33% -42.34% -46.76% -57.39%S&P 500 Total Return SPXT 8.44% -2.47% -6.44% 0.28% 2.70% -0.63% 5.20% 56.89% 95.36% 112.89% 420.06%
Bloomberg US Treasury Bond BUSY -0.36% 1.03% 2.07% -1.96% 1.46% 0.52% 2.69% 4.16% 13.80%Bloomberg USD IG Corporate Bond BUSC 0.56% 0.66% 0.64% -3.05% 0.31% 0.42% 0.94% 6.15% 24.07%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate Bond BUHY 3.20% -2.62% -5.14% 0.65% 1.12% -1.43% -1.93% 11.49% 33.29%
Bloomberg Dollar Spot BBDXY -0.33% 0.58% 2.80% -1.66% 6.96% 0.12% 11.93% 23.00% 25.24% 11.98%
Single Commodity Indices
Oct Sep Q3 Q2 YTD 3-Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearNatural Gas BCOMNGTR -13.50% -8.58% -15.02% 1.82% -33.40% -23.08% -51.08% -57.80% -81.48% -99.31% -98.19%WTI Crude BCOMCLTR 2.62% -9.69% -27.38% 17.51% -25.44% -5.38% -50.52% -51.23% -56.15% -74.23% 120.15%
Brent Crude BCOMCOT 1.21% -12.62% -26.29% 10.67% -25.09% -9.18% -50.27% -56.58% -40.24% -46.25% 524.91%ULS Diesel BCOMHOTR -3.40% -10.53% -20.49% 9.10% -19.88% -7.96% -40.71% -51.31% -35.74% -56.20% 199.19%
Unleaded Gasoline BCOMRBTR -0.21% -7.25% -19.76% 18.00% -4.57% -9.65% -34.43% -42.49% -7.42% -28.43% 480.48%Corn BCOMCNTR -1.42% 3.34% -10.74% 7.79% -11.96% 0.09% -10.28% -51.01% -32.41% -9.16% -76.32%
Soybeans BCOMSYTR -1.21% 0.51% -13.99% 9.17% -12.22% -6.27% -14.88% -16.44% 7.21% 118.51% 263.26%Wheat BCOMWHTR 1.80% 5.73% -17.53% 19.26% -13.09% 3.55% -5.00% -49.26% -56.42% -53.03% -90.61%
Soybean Oil BCOMBOTR 3.31% -3.22% -19.74% 10.66% -13.80% -7.05% -21.42% -48.26% -52.63% -25.39% -47.75%Soybean Meal BCOMSMT -1.62% -0.73% -10.53% 11.45% -5.81% -6.14% -7.51% 12.76% 69.14% 373.92% 1220.59%HRW Wheat BCOMKWT -1.59% 2.88% -21.17% 6.13% -26.78% -3.83% -23.01% -53.47% -54.60% -36.47% -67.13%
Copper BCOMHGTR -1.00% 0.15% -10.73% -4.79% -18.40% -2.22% -24.19% -35.68% -41.37% 33.95% 211.32%Alumnium BCOMALTR -7.08% -2.43% -8.29% -7.25% -24.26% -10.52% -32.02% -37.30% -54.15% -54.50% -46.37%
Zinc BCOMZSTR 0.68% -6.94% -16.01% -4.39% -23.05% -11.55% -27.80% -18.17% -41.22% -9.29% 14.68%Nickel BCOMNITR -3.34% 3.28% -13.46% -3.67% -34.36% -9.11% -37.20% -40.85% -59.07% -6.31% 100.37%Gold BCOMGCTR 2.35% -1.52% -5.00% -1.05% -4.01% 4.24% -3.05% -34.48% -18.18% 125.53% 187.44%Silver BCOMSITR 7.23% -0.46% -7.12% -6.63% -1.30% 5.24% -4.72% -53.56% -39.82% 84.74% 168.02%Sugar BCOMSBTR 12.73% 11.53% -4.38% 2.20% -9.23% 20.66% -17.83% -49.67% -57.54% -38.28% 7.78%Coffee BCOMKCTR -0.33% -2.37% -10.50% -3.85% -32.74% -5.71% -41.76% -42.13% -61.00% -49.23% -67.20%Cotton BCOMCTTR 4.77% -4.06% -10.99% 6.21% 3.27% -1.37% -1.27% -5.69% -27.40% -22.77% -79.72%
Live Cattle BCOMLCTR 8.25% -9.76% -14.57% -1.83% -9.84% -4.14% -11.96% 6.53% 4.87% -24.58% 1.65%Lean Hogs BCOMLHTR -11.28% 5.78% 13.44% -0.98% -23.99% 0.19% -29.75% -27.32% -27.68% -76.81% -86.33%
Index Name Ticker
Index Name Ticker
PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity Indices
2015
2015
YTD
7
Composite Roll Select Indices
Oct Sep Q3 Q2 YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearBCOM Roll Select BCOMRST -0.16% -3.19% -13.61% 3.43% -15.65% -24.55% -36.03% -34.86% -4.46% 221.59%
Roll Select Agriculture BCOMRAGT 1.07% 1.72% -12.73% 7.60% -13.70% -16.30% -36.17% -28.31% 48.50% 39.87%Roll Select Ex-Ags & Livestock BBURXALT -0.68% -5.33% -14.55% 2.18% -16.54% -29.30% -39.01% -41.03% -29.43%
Roll Select Grains BCOMRGRT -1.08% 2.66% -13.25% 9.78% -13.13% -11.68% -41.33% -25.88% 58.89% 20.65%Roll Select Softs BCOMRSOT 6.63% 2.00% -9.57% 0.52% -17.92% -25.96% -33.15% -43.27% -5.97% 13.74%
Roll Select Livestock BCOMRLIT -0.63% -2.99% -5.43% -2.82% -14.86% -15.57% -0.55% 5.71% 4.40%Roll Select Energy BCOMRENT -1.74% -8.82% -19.74% 7.81% -20.56% -43.04% -47.16% -50.50% -71.92%
Roll Select Ex-Energy BCOMRXET 0.68% -0.04% -10.10% 1.21% -13.59% -16.44% -33.03% -28.95% 57.55%Roll Select Petroleum BCOMRPET 1.76% -10.05% -22.45% 10.26% -19.56% -43.43% -47.14% -38.21% -29.77% 789.22%
Roll Select Industrial Metals BCOMRINT -2.81% -1.27% -10.85% -4.96% -22.08% -27.78% -32.29% -45.27% 20.50% 141.29%Roll Select Precious Metals BCOMRPRT 3.59% -1.25% -5.56% -2.53% -3.35% -3.37% -39.76% -22.98% 123.19% 208.67%
Single Commodity Roll Select Indices
Oct Sep Q3 Q2 YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearNatural Gas RS BCOMRNGT -11.09% -5.50% -11.97% 0.44% -26.19% -44.92% -48.33% -72.10% -96.75% -63.69%WTI Crude RS BCOMRCLT 3.58% -10.17% -23.20% 10.68% -22.38% -46.80% -47.59% -45.17% -34.34% 917.03%
Brent Crude RS BCOMRCOT 2.27% -11.47% -23.12% 8.15% -21.30% -44.56% -49.30% -34.19% -18.93% 998.90%ULS Diesel RS BCOMRHOT -1.22% -9.63% -19.22% 9.11% -16.75% -39.39% -48.41% -34.97% -35.47% 480.69%
Unleaded Gasoline RS BCOMRRBT -0.37% -7.25% -22.63% 14.74% -13.86% -38.20% -41.95% -18.04% -15.02% 712.21%Corn RS BCOMRCNT -2.03% 3.12% -9.85% 7.32% -10.82% -9.21% -51.55% -32.30% 23.04% -56.73%
Soybeans RS BCOMRSYT -0.95% 0.40% -13.58% 8.59% -12.11% -14.54% -16.33% 16.21% 161.68% 330.47%Wheat RS BCOMRWHT 1.16% 5.32% -17.89% 19.26% -14.82% -9.30% -50.13% -54.39% -9.85% -56.02%
Soybean Oil RS BCOMRBOT 3.10% -3.01% -19.46% 10.73% -13.61% -21.16% -47.21% -48.60% -8.62% -11.87%Soybean Meal RS BCOMRSMT -1.65% -0.35% -10.25% 9.76% -6.97% -8.65% 16.15% 83.05% 439.96% 1469.37%HRW Wheat RS BCOMRKWT -1.29% 2.84% -20.15% 6.13% -25.79% -21.18% -52.39% -52.04% 12.37% -22.56%
Copper RS BCOMRHGT -1.10% 0.27% -10.63% -4.88% -18.46% -24.19% -35.68% -40.34% 61.53% 345.94%Alumnium RS BCOMRALT -7.19% -2.37% -7.59% -5.74% -22.69% -30.32% -33.49% -50.20% -39.02% -16.20%
Zinc RS BCOMRZST 1.02% -6.81% -15.93% -4.67% -23.11% -27.36% -16.32% -39.45% 20.21% 81.45%Nickel RS BCOMRNIT -3.07% 3.18% -13.63% -3.70% -34.19% -37.02% -39.80% -57.54% 23.17% 242.58%Gold RS BCOMRGCT 2.35% -1.52% -5.01% -1.04% -4.00% -3.02% -34.49% -18.11% 124.82% 189.43%Silver RS BCOMRSIT 7.23% -0.46% -7.12% -6.57% -1.09% -4.43% -53.15% -38.72% 94.98% 197.41%Sugar RS BCOMRSBT 10.70% 7.12% -8.04% 0.73% -19.20% -25.85% -45.61% -52.04% -3.74% 107.95%Coffee RS BCOMRKCT -0.16% -2.91% -11.02% -4.55% -31.89% -40.84% -41.01% -57.54% -38.30% -45.78%Cotton RS BCOMRCTT 4.46% -3.62% -11.16% 6.21% 2.04% -2.25% -3.89% -17.16% 1.56% -64.02%
Live Cattle RS BCOMRLCT 6.19% -7.71% -12.72% -1.83% -10.51% -10.97% 3.16% 7.93% 10.21% 119.39%Lean Hogs RS BCOMRLHT -11.28% 5.78% 9.04% -4.55% -21.19% -22.30% -7.96% -0.34% -13.49% 35.42%
PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity Roll Select Indices
Index Name Ticker
Index Name Ticker
2015
2015
8
Bloomberg Commodity Industrial Metals Subindices Bloomberg Commodity Precious Metals Subindices
Bloomberg Commodity Softs Subindices Bloomberg Commodity Livestock Subindices
PERFORMANCE: Historical ReturnBloomberg Commodity Composite Indices
Commodities vs. Equities vs. Bonds vs. USD
Bloomberg Commodity Energy Subindices
Bloomberg Commodity Forward Indices
Bloomberg Commodity Group Subindices
Bloomberg Commodity Grains Subindices
-100%0%
100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
BloombergCommodity Index ER
BloombergCommodity Index TR
BloombergCommodity IndexSpotBloombergCommodity IndexRoll Select
-50%0%
50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Bloomberg CommodityIndex TR
Bloomberg CommodityIndex 1 MonthForwardBloomberg CommodityIndex 3 MonthForwardBloomberg CommodityIndex 6 MonthForward
-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%
10 11 12 13 14 15
BloombergCommodity Index TR
S&P 500 Total ReturnIndex
Bloomberg USTreasury Bond Index
Bloomberg USD IGCorporate Bond Index
Bloomberg USD HYCorporate Bond Index
Bloomberg U.S. DollarSpot Index
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Energy
Grains
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Softs
Livestock
-500%
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Natural Gas
WTI Crude
Brent Crude
ULS Diesel
Unleaded Gasoline-200%
0%200%400%600%800%
1000%1200%1400%1600%1800%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Soybean Oil
Soybean Meal
HRW Wheat
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Copper
Alumnium
Zinc
Nickel-100%
0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Gold
Silver
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Live Cattle
Lean Hogs
9
BCOM Contribution to Return (CTR) and Constituent Weights BCOM Index MEMB <GO>, PORT <GO>
Group Commodity Oct 2015 CTR
30 Oct 2015 Actual Weight
30 Sep 2015 Actual Weight
Oct 2015 Weight Change
2015 Target Weight
2016 Target Weight
Natural Gas -1.31% 8.47% 8.69% -0.22% 8.74% 8.45% WTI Crude 0.22% 8.46% 8.13% 0.33% 7.84% 7.47%
Brent Crude 0.11% 7.69% 7.70% -0.01% 7.16% 7.53% ULS Diesel -0.13% 3.86% 3.90% -0.04% 3.76% 3.83% Gasoline 0.00% 4.10% 4.14% -0.04% 3.69% 3.75%Subtotal -1.11% 32.58% 32.56% 0.02% 31.19% 31.03%
Corn -0.10% 7.79% 8.00% -0.21% 7.25% 7.36% Soybeans -0.07% 5.31% 5.42% -0.11% 5.68% 5.70%
Wheat 0.06% 3.34% 3.32% 0.02% 3.33% 3.33% Soybean Oil 0.09% 2.70% 2.62% 0.08% 2.81% 2.84%
Soybean Meal -0.05% 2.62% 2.71% -0.09% 2.75% 2.84% HRW Wheat -0.02% 1.04% 1.07% -0.03% 1.17% 1.15%
Subtotal -0.08% 22.80% 23.14% -0.34% 22.98% 23.22% Copper -0.07% 7.06% 7.22% -0.16% 7.54% 7.63%
Aluminum -0.32% 4.25% 4.54% -0.29% 4.59% 4.60% Zinc 0.01% 2.15% 2.15% 0.00% 2.40% 2.53%
Nickel -0.06% 1.53% 1.60% -0.07% 2.12% 2.36%Subtotal -0.44% 14.99% 15.51% -0.52% 16.65% 17.11%
Gold 0.28% 12.51% 12.38% 0.13% 11.90% 11.38% Silver 0.31% 4.49% 4.24% 0.25% 4.28% 4.21%
Subtotal 0.59% 17.00% 16.62% 0.38% 16.18% 15.59% Sugar 0.49% 4.38% 3.93% 0.45% 4.00% 3.63% Coffee 0.00% 1.70% 1.73% -0.03% 2.21% 2.29% Cotton 0.08% 1.77% 1.71% 0.06% 1.51% 1.49%
Subtotal 0.57% 7.85% 7.37% 0.48% 7.72% 7.41% Live Cattle 0.24% 3.17% 2.96% 0.21% 3.33% 3.57% Lean Hogs -0.21% 1.61% 1.84% -0.23% 1.94% 2.06%Subtotal 0.03% 4.78% 4.80% -0.02% 5.27% 5.63%
Total -0.45% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Commodity Price ForecastsCPFC <GO>
Group Commodity Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16Forward 2.36 2.42 2.48 2.55Forecast 2.90 3.12 2.95 3.20Forward 46.57 48.49 49.85 50.80Forecast 48.00 50.94 52.85 58.00Forward 49.48 51.74 53.79 55.21Forecast 52.00 55.50 58.00 63.00Forward 150.78 155.23 161.18 161.18Forecast 152.40 164.30 165.80 165.80Forward 134.01 146.23 162.30 154.64Forecast 141.50 156.70 166.05 174.00Forward 382.84 390.93 397.94 401.22Forecast 395.00 416.00 402.00 417.50Forward 883.66 883.94 891.84 889.38Forecast 900.00 920.00 940.00 935.00Forward 512.98 520.29 524.27 534.08Forecast 518.00 520.00 522.50 530.00Forward 5,168 5,127 5,117 5,111Forecast 5,249 5,418 5,688 5,800Forward 1,480 1,473 1,486 1,499Forecast 1,609 1,650 1,650 1,700Forward 1,708 1,708 1,720 1,730Forecast 1,773 1,815 1,860 1,938Forward 10,356 10,386 10,404 10,424Forecast 10,819 11,200 11,625 12,250Forward 1,152 1,148 1,149 1,150Forecast 1,135 1,108 1,125 1,125Forward 15.64 15.59 15.64 15.68Forecast 15.23 14.97 15.00 15.00Forward 14.42 14.42 14.02 13.97Forecast 13.13 13.00 13.00 13.15Forward 122.37 123.92 126.61 129.53Forecast 133.50 147.50 142.50 135.00Forward 62.29 62.37 63.02 64.16Forecast 63.00 63.00 62.60 62.25
Softs
Bloomberg survey of commodity analysts
Energy
Grains
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Natural Gas
WTI Crude
Brent Crude
ULS Diesel
Gasoline
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Copper
Aluminum
Coffee
Cotton
Zinc
Nickel
Gold
Silver
Sugar
Energy
Livestock
Softs
Precious Metals
Industrial Metals
Grains
10
Composite Indices
Bloomberg Commodity ER BCOM 12.69% 16.93% 15.77% 11.95% 14.16% 18.04% 15.93%Bloomberg Commodity TR BCOMTR 12.69% 16.93% 15.77% 11.95% 14.16% 18.04% 15.93%
Bloomberg Commodity Spot BCOMSP 12.95% 17.04% 15.90% 12.01% 14.21% 18.13% 16.03%Bloomberg Roll Select BCOMRST 11.86% 16.08% 14.80% 11.28% 13.45% 16.96% 14.56%
1 Month Forward BCOMF1T 12.50% 16.81% 15.48% 11.65% 13.89% 17.69% 15.37% 2 Month Forward BCOMF2T 12.30% 16.58% 15.18% 11.43% 13.67% 17.37% 14.85% 3 Month Forward BCOMF3T 12.21% 16.41% 14.78% 11.18% 13.47% 17.04% 14.42% 4 Month Forward BCOMF4T 11.86% 16.22% 14.53% 10.97% 13.26% 16.78% 5 Month Forward BCOMF5T 11.65% 15.90% 14.01% 10.61% 12.88% 16.28% 6 Month Forward BCOMF6T 11.65% 15.90% 14.01% 10.61% 12.88% 16.28%
Energy BCOMENTR 28.00% 34.67% 34.26% 23.59% 23.64% 29.00% 30.42%Petroleum BCOMPETR 36.36% 47.13% 41.34% 27.25% 26.99% 32.55% 32.69%Agriculture BCOMAGTR 10.04% 16.70% 16.33% 14.79% 18.29% 20.93% 18.36%
Grains BCOMGRTR 14.78% 20.83% 20.77% 18.88% 22.24% 25.20% 22.59%Industrial Metals BCOMINTR 18.66% 22.92% 18.99% 16.70% 19.66% 26.28% 22.29%Precious Metals BCOMPRTR 17.94% 17.00% 18.25% 19.49% 21.13% 23.40% 19.63%
Softs BCOMSOTR 14.91% 20.05% 19.88% 19.02% 21.41% 22.37% 20.54%Livestock BCOMLITR 18.89% 16.81% 15.41% 12.39% 13.08% 13.90% 14.35%Ex-Energy BCOMXETR 9.37% 12.33% 11.70% 10.81% 13.68% 16.77% 13.75%
Ex-Petroleum BCOMXPET 9.68% 11.74% 11.75% 10.82% 13.30% 16.68%Ex-Agriculture BCOMXAGT 17.10% 21.18% 19.32% 14.12% 15.64% 19.88%
Ex-Grains BCOMXGRT 9.37% 12.33% 11.70% 10.81% 13.68% 16.77%Ex-Industrial Metals BCOMXIMT 15.34% 19.29% 17.43% 12.90% 14.71% 18.71%Ex-Precious Metals BCOMXPMT 13.83% 17.35% 17.02% 12.78% 14.71% 18.29%
Ex-Softs BCOMXSOT 13.40% 19.13% 17.63% 12.85% 14.93% 18.94%Ex-Livestock BCOMXLIT 13.20% 17.55% 16.50% 12.46% 14.51% 18.61%
Ex-Agriculture & Livestock BCOMXALT 17.10% 21.18% 19.32% 14.12% 15.64% 19.88%S&P 500 Total Return Index SPXT 12.62% 21.47% 14.93% 12.68% 15.35% 20.69% 19.57%
Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index BUSY 3.85% 4.35% 4.64% 3.84% 4.21%Bloomberg USD IG Corporate Bond Index BUSC 3.70% 4.06% 4.64% 4.04% 4.51%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate Bond Index BUHY 3.61% 4.43% 3.60% 2.96% 2.99%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index BBDXY 6.46% 6.13% 7.42% 5.85% 6.38% 7.06%
Single Commodity Indices
Natural Gas BCOMNGTR 28.50% 27.76% 42.80% 37.20% 38.19% 44.05% 47.17%WTI Crude BCOMCLTR 39.95% 52.06% 46.56% 30.67% 30.29% 34.73% 34.26%
Brent Crude BCOMCOT 36.99% 48.17% 42.66% 27.89% 27.08% 32.08% 31.66%ULS Diesel BCOMHOTR 32.45% 40.37% 35.28% 24.01% 23.79% 30.09% 32.10%
Unleaded Gasoline BCOMRBTR 37.26% 47.32% 40.27% 27.86% 27.48% 34.25% 33.85%Corn BCOMCNTR 16.45% 23.32% 23.83% 23.54% 27.61% 30.94% 26.88%
Soybeans BCOMSYTR 16.20% 22.93% 21.04% 19.94% 21.38% 24.81% 23.81%Wheat BCOMWHTR 24.63% 25.67% 30.45% 25.21% 30.30% 34.02% 29.70%
Soybean Oil BCOMBOTR 21.73% 25.25% 22.73% 19.40% 20.25% 24.08% 23.35%Soybean Meal BCOMSMT 16.05% 23.30% 24.11% 24.71% 25.18% 28.02% 26.57%HRW Wheat BCOMKWT 25.92% 24.34% 28.75% 23.51% 27.63% 30.97% 26.94%
Copper BCOMHGTR 18.10% 27.08% 22.92% 19.27% 22.75% 31.53% 27.76%Alumnium BCOMALTR 18.65% 18.71% 17.66% 17.49% 19.44% 24.13% 20.49%
Zinc BCOMZSTR 39.74% 32.94% 23.44% 19.36% 23.57% 34.53% 28.11%Nickel BCOMNITR 25.81% 32.95% 31.18% 26.57% 29.16% 39.14% 35.50%Gold BCOMGCTR 14.44% 14.44% 15.55% 17.39% 18.06% 20.37% 17.49%Silver BCOMSITR 30.34% 29.07% 29.77% 28.73% 34.09% 36.37% 30.51%Sugar BCOMSBTR 26.85% 30.49% 27.87% 22.82% 29.29% 33.30% 31.84%Coffee BCOMKCTR 32.27% 33.87% 34.15% 35.85% 33.80% 31.41% 36.84%Cotton BCOMCTTR 20.51% 20.57% 19.67% 19.12% 26.58% 27.17% 25.95%
Live Cattle BCOMLCTR 18.04% 18.65% 16.13% 12.84% 13.41% 13.85% 14.23%Lean Hogs BCOMLHTR 29.08% 29.81% 26.84% 20.94% 20.47% 22.32% 24.03%
10-Year 20-Year
20-Year
VOLATILITY: Realized
Index Name Ticker
Index Name Ticker
3-Mon 1-Year 3-Year1-Mon
1-Mon 3-Mon 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
5-Year
11
VOLATILITY: ImpliedVCA <GO>, OVDV <GO>
TermMoneyness 90% 100% 110% 90% 100% 110% 90% 100% 110%
End of Oct 2% 57% 3% -3% 52% -1% 0% 37% -1%End of Sep -1% 39% 1% -1% 42% 1% 1% 35% -1%End of Oct 1% 41% 0% 2% 38% 0% 1% 37% 0%End of Sep 6% 42% -1% 4% 41% -1% 1% 39% -1%End of Oct 4% 38% 2% 2% 38% 0% 1% 36% -1%End of Sep 3% 39% -2% 2% 39% -2% 2% 36% -1%End of Oct 1% 35% 1% 1% 33% 0% 0% 30% 0%End of Sep 1% 35% -2% 1% 32% -1% 0% 31% 0%End of Oct -1% 39% 1% -1% 37% 0% 0% 30% 0%End of Sep 1% 43% 0% 0% 39% 0% 0% 32% 0%End of Oct 2% 18% 2% 0% 21% 1% 0% 22% 0%End of Sep 1% 26% 1% 0% 25% 1% 0% 24% 1%End of Oct 4% 16% 4% 1% 16% 1% 1% 17% 0%End of Sep 4% 20% 2% 2% 18% 0% 1% 17% 0%End of Oct 1% 22% 3% -1% 23% 2% -1% 25% 1%End of Sep 0% 26% 3% 0% 24% 1% -1% 25% 1%End of Oct 3% 23% 4% 1% 22% 1% 0% 22% 1%End of Sep 1% 25% 1% 0% 23% 0% 0% 22% 1%End of Oct 4% 17% 4% 1% 18% 1% 1% 18% 0%End of Sep 4% 23% 2% 1% 22% 0% 1% 20% 0%End of Oct 1% 21% 3% -1% 22% 1% -1% 24% 1%End of Sep 0% 24% 4% -1% 25% 2% -1% 25% 1%End of Oct 3% 26% -1% 1% 25% -1% 3% 25% -2%End of Sep 1% 26% -2% 1% 26% -1% 3% 25% -2%End of Oct 0% 19% 1% 0% 20% 0% 0% 19% 0%End of Sep 0% 20% 0% 0% 21% 0% 0% 21% 0%End of Oct 0% 33% -1% 0% 32% -2% 0% 32% -2%End of Sep 0% 27% 0% 0% 27% 0% 0% 27% 0%End of Oct 0% 38% -1% 0% 37% -1% 0% 37% -1%End of Sep 0% 37% 0% 0% 37% 0% 0% 37% 0%End of Oct 2% 13% 1% 1% 15% 0% 1% 16% 0%End of Sep 1% 14% 1% 0% 17% 0% 1% 18% 0%End of Oct 6% 22% 3% 3% 24% 1% 1% 26% 0%End of Sep 4% 27% 2% 2% 27% 0% 2% 28% 0%End of Oct 1% 32% 2% 0% 30% 1% 0% 28% 1%End of Sep 0% 34% 2% 0% 30% 1% 0% 29% 1%End of Oct -1% 35% 4% -2% 35% 3% -2% 34% 2%
End of Sep 0% 37% 4% -2% 35% 3% -1% 33% 2%End of Oct 3% 18% 3% 1% 18% 1% 1% 18% 0%End of Sep 1% 21% 2% 1% 20% 1% 1% 19% 1%End of Oct 4% 19% 0% 2% 17% -1% 2% 15% -1%
End of Sep 6% 25% 1% 1% 20% 0% 1% 18% 0%End of Oct 3% 30% -1% 2% 28% -1% 1% 22% -1%End of Sep 8% 17% 6% 4% 24% -3% 2% 21% -2%
Aluminum
Zinc
Nickel
Ener
gy
Natural Gas
WTI Crude
Brent Crude
ULS Diesel
Gasoline
Live
stoc
k Live Cattle
Lean Hogs
Grai
nsPr
ecio
us
Met
als Gold
Silver
Softs
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Soybean Oil
Soybean Meal
HRW Wheat
Indu
stria
l Met
als Copper
3M 6M
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
1M
12
Bloomberg Commodity Energy Subindices Bloomberg Commodity Grains Subindices
VOLATILITY: Historical 1-Year RealizedBloomberg Commodity Composite Indices Bloomberg Commodity Forward Indices
Commodities vs. Equities vs. Bonds vs. USD Bloomberg Commodity Group Subindices
Bloomberg Commodity Industrial Metals Subindices Bloomberg Commodity Precious Metals Subindices
Bloomberg Commodity Softs Subindices Bloomberg Commodity Livestock Subindices
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
BloombergCommodity Index ER
BloombergCommodity Index TR
BloombergCommodity IndexSpotBloombergCommodity IndexRoll Select
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Bloomberg CommodityIndex TR
Bloomberg CommodityIndex 1 MonthForwardBloomberg CommodityIndex 3 MonthForwardBloomberg CommodityIndex 6 MonthForward
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
11 12 13 14 15
BloombergCommodity Index TRS&P 500 Total ReturnIndexBloomberg USTreasury Bond IndexBloomberg USD IGCorporate Bond IndexBloomberg USD HYCorporate Bond IndexBloomberg U.S. DollarSpot Index
5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Energy
Grains
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Softs
Livestock
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Natural Gas
WTI Crude
Brent Crude
ULS Diesel
Unleaded Gasoline10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Soybean Oil
Soybean Meal
HRW Wheat
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Copper
Alumnium
Zinc
Nickel0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Gold
Silver
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Live Cattle
Lean Hogs
13
Bloo
mbe
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Com
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Roll
Sele
ct
1 M
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Fo
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d
3 M
onth
Fo
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d
6 M
onth
Fo
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d
Ener
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Petr
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m
Agric
ultu
re
Gra
ins
Indu
stria
l M
etal
s
Prec
ious
M
etal
s
Soft
s
Live
stoc
k
Ex-E
nerg
y
Ex-A
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Li
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ock
Bloomberg Commodity 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 88% 85% 57% 46% 57% 43% 38% 27% 76% 95%Roll Select 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 86% 85% 58% 47% 59% 43% 38% 27% 78% 95%
1 Month Forward 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 87% 85% 58% 47% 58% 43% 38% 28% 77% 95%3 Month Forward 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 86% 85% 58% 47% 59% 44% 38% 27% 78% 94%6 Month Forward 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 85% 85% 58% 47% 59% 45% 38% 26% 78% 94%
Energy 88% 86% 87% 86% 85% 100% 93% 25% 17% 33% 18% 16% 19% 37% 94%Petroleum 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 93% 100% 26% 18% 37% 21% 18% 17% 40% 90%Agriculture 57% 58% 58% 58% 58% 25% 26% 100% 93% 27% 14% 52% 12% 78% 31%
Grains 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 17% 18% 93% 100% 16% 7% 21% 6% 67% 20%Industrial Metals 57% 59% 58% 59% 59% 33% 37% 27% 16% 100% 30% 30% 18% 69% 57%Precious Metals 43% 43% 43% 44% 45% 18% 21% 14% 7% 30% 100% 19% 9% 59% 44%
Softs 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 16% 18% 52% 21% 30% 19% 100% 19% 52% 25%Livestock 27% 27% 28% 27% 26% 19% 17% 12% 6% 18% 9% 19% 100% 28% 22%Ex-Energy 76% 78% 77% 78% 78% 37% 40% 78% 67% 69% 59% 52% 28% 100% 60%
Ex-Agriculture & Livestock 95% 95% 95% 94% 94% 94% 90% 31% 20% 57% 44% 25% 22% 60% 100%S&P 500 Total Return Index 28% 30% 28% 30% 31% 25% 29% 17% 13% 26% -2% 15% 7% 20% 26%
S&P Energy 61% 62% 61% 62% 63% 64% 67% 23% 15% 34% 15% 23% 12% 34% 63%S&P Financial 23% 25% 24% 26% 27% 21% 26% 18% 14% 23% -9% 14% 7% 17% 21%
S&P Health Care 10% 11% 10% 11% 12% 6% 8% 7% 6% 16% -2% 5% 1% 10% 9%S&P Consumer Discretionary 19% 21% 20% 22% 23% 17% 21% 16% 13% 24% -10% 14% 8% 16% 17%
S&P IT 20% 22% 20% 22% 23% 17% 21% 13% 10% 22% -2% 10% 4% 16% 18%S&P Utilities 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 4% 2% 1% -2% 5% 5% -1% 2% 5%
S&P Consumers Staples 15% 16% 15% 17% 17% 11% 13% 13% 10% 19% -4% 15% 5% 15% 12%S&P Industrials 26% 27% 26% 28% 29% 24% 28% 16% 12% 25% -5% 14% 7% 19% 24%
S&P Telecommunication 25% 26% 25% 26% 27% 20% 25% 21% 19% 17% -1% 16% 9% 20% 21%S&P Materials 44% 46% 45% 46% 47% 40% 46% 25% 17% 37% 8% 23% 12% 34% 43%
Bloomberg US Treasury -19% -20% -20% -20% -21% -21% -24% -15% -15% -20% 19% -3% -7% -11% -17%Bloomberg USD IG Corporate -16% -16% -16% -16% -16% -19% -20% -12% -12% -16% 19% -2% -4% -7% -14%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate 21% 22% 21% 22% 24% 16% 23% 13% 7% 27% -3% 13% 13% 19% 19%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot -36% -35% -35% -35% -35% -27% -24% -22% -14% -13% -35% -27% -6% -32% -33%EURUSD 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 12% 9% 13% 11% 9% 33% 14% -3% 24% 20%JPYUSD 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% -3% -5% -5% -12% 37% 0% -10% 5% 6%CADUSD 54% 54% 54% 54% 55% 45% 48% 22% 12% 33% 42% 30% 8% 43% 55%MXNUSD 44% 45% 44% 45% 46% 32% 35% 25% 13% 33% 39% 35% 5% 43% 43%GBPUSD 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 18% 16% 16% 10% 19% 32% 21% 5% 30% 26%AUDUSD 39% 40% 40% 41% 41% 25% 26% 19% 11% 34% 43% 24% 9% 42% 38%CHFUSD 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 2% 1% 3% 0% 13% 32% 10% 0% 19% 12%KRWUSD 26% 27% 26% 27% 29% 12% 13% 17% 10% 23% 40% 27% -2% 35% 24%CNYUSD 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 8% 6% 11% 10% 8% -1% 1% 3% 10% 8%
Bloo
mbe
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Com
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Roll
Sele
ct
1 M
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Fo
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d
3 M
onth
Fo
rwar
d
6 M
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Fo
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d
Ener
gy
Petr
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m
Agric
ultu
re
Gra
ins
Indu
stria
l M
etal
s
Prec
ious
M
etal
s
Soft
s
Live
stoc
k
Ex-E
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y
Ex-A
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Li
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Bloomberg Commodity 100% 99% 100% 99% 99% 80% 76% 71% 62% 66% 56% 50% 25% 87% 93%Roll Select 99% 100% 99% 100% 99% 78% 75% 70% 62% 67% 57% 50% 25% 88% 92%
1 Month Forward 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 78% 76% 71% 63% 67% 56% 50% 25% 87% 92%3 Month Forward 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 77% 75% 71% 62% 68% 57% 50% 25% 88% 92%6 Month Forward 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 76% 75% 70% 61% 69% 59% 50% 24% 88% 92%
Energy 80% 78% 78% 77% 76% 100% 86% 30% 25% 35% 23% 24% 16% 40% 88%Petroleum 76% 75% 76% 75% 75% 86% 100% 31% 24% 42% 28% 27% 16% 44% 82%Agriculture 71% 70% 71% 71% 70% 30% 31% 100% 95% 34% 27% 59% 17% 83% 40%
Grains 62% 62% 63% 62% 61% 25% 24% 95% 100% 26% 21% 33% 14% 75% 32%Industrial Metals 66% 67% 67% 68% 69% 35% 42% 34% 26% 100% 44% 34% 13% 72% 68%Precious Metals 56% 57% 56% 57% 59% 23% 28% 27% 21% 44% 100% 23% 7% 66% 59%
Softs 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 24% 27% 59% 33% 34% 23% 100% 16% 56% 34%Livestock 25% 25% 25% 25% 24% 16% 16% 17% 14% 13% 7% 16% 100% 26% 18%Ex-Energy 87% 88% 87% 88% 88% 40% 44% 83% 75% 72% 66% 56% 26% 100% 69%
Ex-Agriculture & Livestock 93% 92% 92% 92% 92% 88% 82% 40% 32% 68% 59% 34% 18% 69% 100%S&P 500 Total Return Index 37% 37% 37% 38% 39% 30% 37% 23% 18% 41% 8% 23% 12% 31% 36%
S&P Energy 55% 55% 55% 55% 56% 54% 60% 28% 21% 44% 20% 28% 14% 40% 56%S&P Financial 31% 32% 31% 32% 33% 25% 31% 21% 15% 38% 3% 22% 9% 27% 29%
S&P Health Care 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 19% 24% 16% 12% 29% 3% 17% 9% 22% 23%S&P Consumer Discretionary 28% 29% 29% 29% 30% 23% 30% 19% 15% 35% 1% 17% 10% 24% 26%
S&P IT 32% 33% 33% 34% 34% 25% 32% 21% 16% 38% 8% 20% 11% 29% 31%S&P Utilities 18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 16% 18% 11% 8% 17% 5% 14% 4% 15% 17%
S&P Consumers Staples 24% 25% 25% 26% 26% 19% 24% 15% 12% 28% 6% 16% 10% 21% 23%S&P Industrials 34% 35% 35% 36% 36% 27% 34% 22% 17% 40% 7% 22% 11% 30% 33%
S&P Telecommunication 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 19% 23% 14% 11% 24% 4% 16% 7% 19% 22%S&P Materials 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 36% 44% 28% 21% 47% 21% 27% 13% 41% 45%
Bloomberg US Treasury -21% -22% -22% -22% -22% -22% -25% -15% -13% -25% 10% -10% -7% -15% -20%Bloomberg USD IG Corporate -15% -15% -15% -15% -15% -18% -20% -10% -9% -17% 14% -6% -6% -8% -13%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate 24% 25% 24% 25% 26% 16% 22% 16% 12% 28% 9% 14% 6% 23% 23%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot -41% -42% -41% -42% -42% -29% -32% -26% -20% -33% -34% -28% -7% -39% -40%EURUSD 37% 38% 37% 38% 38% 23% 25% 21% 16% 36% 35% 23% 2% 37% 37%JPYUSD 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% -2% -3% 3% 3% -4% 26% 4% -5% 9% 5%CADUSD 51% 52% 51% 52% 53% 38% 44% 28% 20% 45% 37% 30% 12% 46% 51%MXNUSD 46% 47% 46% 47% 48% 30% 36% 27% 20% 47% 34% 30% 10% 45% 46%GBPUSD 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 20% 23% 21% 15% 33% 34% 22% 10% 36% 34%AUDUSD 50% 51% 50% 51% 52% 30% 36% 31% 23% 47% 44% 32% 12% 51% 48%CHFUSD 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 10% 10% 11% 8% 24% 33% 14% -3% 26% 24%KRWUSD 34% 35% 34% 35% 36% 18% 22% 24% 18% 35% 27% 22% 8% 36% 31%CNYUSD 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 6% 6% 9% 8% 8% 6% 5% 0% 11% 9%
Bond
Curr
ency
Bond
CORRELATION: BCOM Composites vs. Equities vs. Bond vs. Currency Cu
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5-Year
1-Year
Com
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Equi
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14
Nat
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Gas
WTI
Cru
de
Bren
t Cru
de
ULS
Die
sel
Unl
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d G
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Corn
Soyb
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Whe
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Soyb
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Oil
Soyb
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Mea
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HRW
Whe
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Copp
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Alum
nium
Zinc
Nic
kel
Gol
d
Silv
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Suga
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Coffe
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Cott
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Live
Cat
tle
Lean
Hog
s
Natural Gas 100% 18% 16% 17% 14% 1% 8% 0% 16% 3% 2% 1% 13% 1% -1% -2% 7% -1% 8% 0% 11% 9%WTI Crude 18% 100% 95% 91% 88% 17% 27% 2% 47% 12% 6% 36% 34% 25% 26% 15% 27% 13% 15% 20% 18% 14%
Brent Crude 16% 95% 100% 97% 93% 18% 27% 2% 45% 12% 6% 34% 32% 23% 26% 12% 26% 10% 12% 22% 15% 10%ULS Diesel 17% 91% 97% 100% 93% 19% 28% 3% 45% 12% 6% 33% 31% 24% 25% 15% 29% 9% 12% 23% 13% 10%
Unleaded Gasoline 14% 88% 93% 93% 100% 13% 22% 0% 41% 9% 5% 30% 30% 21% 25% 15% 28% 5% 12% 22% 10% 6%Corn 1% 17% 18% 19% 13% 100% 64% 65% 35% 57% 63% 17% 9% 6% 13% 3% 9% 15% 7% 12% 10% -1%
Soybeans 8% 27% 27% 28% 22% 64% 100% 38% 58% 89% 36% 25% 19% 17% 28% 2% 16% 18% 20% 27% 10% 3%Wheat 0% 2% 2% 3% 0% 65% 38% 100% 18% 33% 96% 8% -6% -3% -2% 4% 4% 9% 9% 9% 5% -4%
Soybean Oil 16% 47% 45% 45% 41% 35% 58% 18% 100% 26% 17% 26% 28% 21% 29% 20% 34% 15% 26% 29% 19% -1%Soybean Meal 3% 12% 12% 12% 9% 57% 89% 33% 26% 100% 30% 16% 11% 12% 15% -8% 3% 14% 12% 20% 3% 4%HRW Wheat 2% 6% 6% 6% 5% 63% 36% 96% 17% 30% 100% 6% -6% -5% -2% 3% 2% 9% 9% 6% 3% -3%
Copper 1% 36% 34% 33% 30% 17% 25% 8% 26% 16% 6% 100% 60% 67% 57% 21% 40% 26% 7% 25% 16% 11%Alumnium 13% 34% 32% 31% 30% 9% 19% -6% 28% 11% -6% 60% 100% 65% 50% 16% 29% 18% 10% 16% 15% 9%
Zinc 1% 25% 23% 24% 21% 6% 17% -3% 21% 12% -5% 67% 65% 100% 54% 24% 33% 23% 7% 15% 10% 9%Nickel -1% 26% 26% 25% 25% 13% 28% -2% 29% 15% -2% 57% 50% 54% 100% 10% 25% 21% 17% 18% 9% 5%Gold -2% 15% 12% 15% 15% 3% 2% 4% 20% -8% 3% 21% 16% 24% 10% 100% 81% 8% 14% 6% 9% -1%Silver 7% 27% 26% 29% 28% 9% 16% 4% 34% 3% 2% 40% 29% 33% 25% 81% 100% 14% 22% 13% 16% 4%Sugar -1% 13% 10% 9% 5% 15% 18% 9% 15% 14% 9% 26% 18% 23% 21% 8% 14% 100% 21% 12% 11% 7%Coffee 8% 15% 12% 12% 12% 7% 20% 9% 26% 12% 9% 7% 10% 7% 17% 14% 22% 21% 100% 12% 14% 9%Cotton 0% 20% 22% 23% 22% 12% 27% 9% 29% 20% 6% 25% 16% 15% 18% 6% 13% 12% 12% 100% 15% 6%
Live Cattle 11% 18% 15% 13% 10% 10% 10% 5% 19% 3% 3% 16% 15% 10% 9% 9% 16% 11% 14% 15% 100% 19%Lean Hogs 9% 14% 10% 10% 6% -1% 3% -4% -1% 4% -3% 11% 9% 9% 5% -1% 4% 7% 9% 6% 19% 100%
S&P 500 Total Return Index 1% 28% 32% 29% 24% 10% 18% 6% 16% 13% 6% 27% 16% 16% 24% -9% 9% 9% 9% 22% 11% 0%S&P Energy 17% 67% 68% 65% 59% 14% 21% 3% 35% 9% 6% 34% 29% 23% 23% 7% 24% 17% 14% 23% 14% 4%
S&P Financial -3% 24% 29% 26% 21% 11% 20% 6% 15% 15% 7% 24% 14% 12% 24% -16% 3% 10% 8% 20% 13% -3%S&P Health Care -1% 7% 10% 8% 5% 3% 10% 3% 6% 9% 3% 14% 11% 12% 16% -6% 4% 1% 4% 14% 5% -3%
S&P Consumer Discretionary -4% 20% 24% 21% 16% 11% 15% 7% 11% 12% 7% 25% 13% 13% 25% -18% 2% 10% 8% 22% 9% 3%S&P IT -2% 18% 23% 22% 18% 8% 15% 4% 12% 10% 4% 22% 13% 15% 23% -8% 9% 4% 8% 18% 8% -2%
S&P Utilities 6% 2% 6% 4% 4% -2% 3% 4% -1% 1% 4% 3% -4% -11% -1% 5% 5% 3% 0% 20% 1% -4%S&P Consumers Staples 0% 12% 14% 13% 9% 7% 12% 6% 7% 9% 7% 21% 9% 8% 18% -8% 4% 11% 7% 18% 9% -2%
S&P Industrials -1% 27% 30% 28% 25% 10% 15% 5% 14% 12% 7% 28% 14% 16% 21% -11% 5% 10% 8% 19% 9% 1%S&P Telecommunication -3% 22% 26% 26% 24% 17% 15% 15% 13% 8% 17% 19% 10% 8% 15% -5% 5% 9% 9% 25% 15% -1%
S&P Materials 2% 45% 47% 45% 39% 16% 24% 4% 27% 16% 5% 38% 27% 26% 28% 1% 18% 19% 8% 27% 16% 2%Bloomberg US Treasury 0% -25% -25% -21% -19% -13% -16% -9% -10% -17% -7% -20% -17% -11% -16% 25% 7% -1% -4% -3% -6% -6%
Bloomberg USD IG Corporate -3% -22% -21% -17% -15% -11% -11% -10% -7% -13% -8% -16% -15% -6% -12% 23% 10% 0% -5% 1% -1% -6%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate -8% 22% 25% 21% 20% 8% 18% -5% 17% 14% -4% 24% 24% 26% 18% -8% 6% 13% 2% 21% 20% -1%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot -16% -26% -23% -25% -20% -11% -12% -13% -16% -7% -13% -17% -8% -7% -4% -37% -27% -17% -16% -28% -2% -7%EURUSD 11% 11% 8% 8% 6% 9% 3% 15% 4% 2% 15% 13% 4% 7% 0% 35% 26% 7% 9% 18% -9% 4%JPYUSD 7% -3% -4% -2% -2% -5% -10% 2% -12% -5% 5% -10% -8% -9% -16% 45% 20% -3% 3% -1% -13% -2%CADUSD 10% 48% 47% 46% 45% 8% 16% 8% 27% 6% 10% 34% 24% 22% 22% 40% 41% 22% 19% 26% 8% 3%MXNUSD 6% 36% 34% 33% 32% 8% 20% 8% 25% 12% 9% 34% 23% 24% 23% 35% 40% 30% 19% 20% 8% 0%GBPUSD 12% 19% 15% 15% 13% 7% 12% 8% 11% 8% 6% 21% 18% 10% 8% 31% 29% 15% 13% 13% 2% 6%AUDUSD 6% 25% 26% 27% 24% 8% 15% 6% 20% 9% 5% 34% 22% 30% 23% 41% 39% 16% 18% 20% 8% 6%CHFUSD 3% 1% 0% 1% -1% 3% -9% 4% 8% -13% 6% 15% 10% 10% 2% 37% 21% 10% -2% 12% -5% 5%KRWUSD 1% 13% 13% 13% 11% 9% 7% 9% 9% 5% 10% 25% 15% 19% 12% 39% 36% 22% 20% 7% -1% -3%CNYUSD 7% 7% 7% 6% 2% 10% 11% 4% 9% 10% 3% 5% 8% 10% 10% -2% 1% -5% 13% -3% 6% -2%
Nat
ural
Gas
WTI
Cru
de
Bren
t Cru
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ULS
Die
sel
Unl
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d G
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Corn
Soyb
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Whe
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Soyb
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Oil
Soyb
ean
Mea
l
HRW
Whe
at
Copp
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Alum
nium
Zinc
Nic
kel
Gol
d
Silv
er
Suga
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Coffe
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Cott
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Live
Cat
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Lean
Hog
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Natural Gas 100% 14% 12% 13% 10% 12% 6% 10% 7% 5% 11% 3% 7% 1% 3% 0% 4% 5% 6% 0% 7% 6%WTI Crude 14% 100% 91% 86% 83% 19% 26% 16% 38% 16% 17% 42% 36% 32% 31% 23% 33% 22% 17% 22% 16% 12%
Brent Crude 12% 91% 100% 96% 92% 19% 26% 16% 38% 15% 18% 38% 31% 27% 29% 21% 31% 20% 15% 22% 14% 9%ULS Diesel 13% 86% 96% 100% 89% 19% 27% 16% 38% 17% 18% 37% 30% 27% 29% 21% 31% 20% 15% 23% 12% 10%
Unleaded Gasoline 10% 83% 92% 89% 100% 17% 23% 15% 36% 13% 17% 34% 30% 25% 27% 21% 31% 16% 13% 20% 12% 7%Corn 12% 19% 19% 19% 17% 100% 61% 70% 45% 55% 66% 17% 16% 13% 18% 14% 19% 24% 14% 22% 15% 8%
Soybeans 6% 26% 26% 27% 23% 61% 100% 50% 71% 92% 48% 29% 24% 25% 23% 18% 25% 25% 15% 23% 12% 7%Wheat 10% 16% 16% 16% 15% 70% 50% 100% 39% 43% 95% 18% 14% 15% 18% 15% 18% 23% 16% 23% 11% 4%
Soybean Oil 7% 38% 38% 38% 36% 45% 71% 39% 100% 45% 38% 34% 30% 31% 28% 23% 32% 23% 19% 29% 16% 8%Soybean Meal 5% 16% 15% 17% 13% 55% 92% 43% 45% 100% 42% 20% 17% 17% 14% 13% 18% 19% 11% 15% 8% 4%HRW Wheat 11% 17% 18% 18% 17% 66% 48% 95% 38% 42% 100% 18% 13% 13% 17% 14% 17% 22% 14% 22% 11% 5%
Copper 3% 42% 38% 37% 34% 17% 29% 18% 34% 20% 18% 100% 66% 72% 60% 38% 51% 24% 20% 26% 11% 9%Alumnium 7% 36% 31% 30% 30% 16% 24% 14% 30% 17% 13% 66% 100% 70% 56% 32% 40% 21% 17% 20% 11% 9%
Zinc 1% 32% 27% 27% 25% 13% 25% 15% 31% 17% 13% 72% 70% 100% 59% 31% 41% 22% 16% 19% 8% 8%Nickel 3% 31% 29% 29% 27% 18% 23% 18% 28% 14% 17% 60% 56% 59% 100% 23% 33% 24% 16% 24% 7% 6%Gold 0% 23% 21% 21% 21% 14% 18% 15% 23% 13% 14% 38% 32% 31% 23% 100% 82% 11% 18% 12% 7% 2%Silver 4% 33% 31% 31% 31% 19% 25% 18% 32% 18% 17% 51% 40% 41% 33% 82% 100% 17% 23% 18% 9% 5%Sugar 5% 22% 20% 20% 16% 24% 25% 23% 23% 19% 22% 24% 21% 22% 24% 11% 17% 100% 27% 22% 14% 11%Coffee 6% 17% 15% 15% 13% 14% 15% 16% 19% 11% 14% 20% 17% 16% 16% 18% 23% 27% 100% 13% 8% 8%Cotton 0% 22% 22% 23% 20% 22% 23% 23% 29% 15% 22% 26% 20% 19% 24% 12% 18% 22% 13% 100% 8% 5%
Live Cattle 7% 16% 14% 12% 12% 15% 12% 11% 16% 8% 11% 11% 11% 8% 7% 7% 9% 14% 8% 8% 100% 33%Lean Hogs 6% 12% 9% 10% 7% 8% 7% 4% 8% 4% 5% 9% 9% 8% 6% 2% 5% 11% 8% 5% 33% 100%
S&P 500 Total Return Index 2% 37% 36% 33% 32% 14% 19% 13% 23% 13% 15% 41% 31% 30% 30% 3% 15% 19% 12% 23% 13% 6%S&P Energy 12% 60% 58% 55% 52% 17% 22% 17% 30% 14% 19% 44% 34% 34% 32% 14% 27% 23% 16% 24% 14% 8%
S&P Financial 0% 31% 30% 28% 27% 11% 17% 12% 21% 11% 13% 39% 28% 28% 29% -2% 11% 18% 11% 21% 10% 4%S&P Health Care 0% 24% 23% 21% 19% 9% 14% 8% 16% 10% 10% 29% 23% 22% 22% 0% 9% 13% 9% 17% 11% 4%
S&P Consumer Discretionary -1% 29% 28% 26% 25% 11% 16% 12% 18% 10% 13% 36% 26% 25% 28% -3% 9% 14% 8% 18% 12% 4%S&P IT -1% 32% 30% 29% 27% 12% 18% 11% 21% 12% 13% 38% 30% 29% 29% 3% 14% 16% 10% 21% 13% 5%
S&P Utilities 4% 18% 17% 14% 15% 7% 8% 8% 9% 4% 10% 19% 12% 11% 11% 4% 6% 13% 5% 16% 6% 1%S&P Consumers Staples 1% 24% 23% 22% 20% 10% 12% 9% 15% 8% 10% 29% 20% 19% 21% 3% 10% 13% 6% 17% 10% 6%
S&P Industrials 0% 35% 32% 30% 29% 13% 19% 13% 22% 13% 15% 42% 31% 30% 29% 2% 15% 18% 11% 21% 12% 6%S&P Telecommunication 2% 23% 23% 21% 21% 8% 11% 9% 13% 8% 10% 24% 19% 17% 17% 2% 7% 14% 7% 16% 9% 3%
S&P Materials 2% 44% 42% 39% 38% 17% 22% 17% 27% 14% 19% 49% 36% 37% 34% 16% 26% 21% 14% 24% 15% 6%Bloomberg US Treasury -3% -26% -25% -23% -22% -9% -15% -9% -17% -10% -10% -27% -20% -18% -17% 15% 0% -7% -5% -12% -6% -6%
Bloomberg USD IG Corporate -4% -21% -19% -17% -17% -6% -10% -7% -13% -7% -7% -19% -13% -11% -11% 18% 5% -5% -2% -8% -4% -5%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate -2% 21% 22% 20% 18% 10% 16% 5% 19% 12% 6% 26% 23% 24% 22% 6% 14% 10% 8% 15% 7% 3%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot -8% -32% -30% -30% -27% -15% -18% -17% -20% -14% -18% -34% -27% -24% -21% -33% -32% -18% -19% -23% -6% -7%EURUSD 8% 26% 23% 23% 20% 12% 15% 16% 17% 11% 17% 36% 30% 27% 23% 33% 34% 14% 17% 21% 0% 5%JPYUSD 1% -3% -3% -2% -2% 2% 1% 6% -6% 5% 5% -4% -3% -3% -5% 29% 18% 0% 8% 0% -4% -3%CADUSD 5% 44% 42% 40% 39% 15% 22% 16% 29% 16% 17% 46% 36% 34% 31% 34% 38% 20% 22% 23% 11% 9%MXNUSD 4% 37% 34% 32% 32% 14% 22% 15% 27% 16% 16% 47% 38% 35% 35% 31% 36% 21% 19% 25% 10% 6%GBPUSD 5% 25% 22% 21% 18% 11% 16% 13% 18% 12% 13% 32% 29% 25% 22% 32% 32% 14% 16% 18% 8% 8%AUDUSD 3% 36% 34% 33% 31% 16% 26% 18% 29% 20% 19% 47% 35% 38% 34% 41% 43% 22% 23% 26% 11% 9%CHFUSD 4% 10% 9% 9% 8% 5% 5% 11% 10% 3% 10% 24% 22% 16% 15% 34% 28% 10% 9% 11% -7% 3%KRWUSD 1% 22% 21% 22% 20% 13% 21% 15% 24% 16% 16% 34% 28% 29% 26% 25% 27% 14% 15% 22% 6% 7%CNYUSD 4% 6% 6% 5% 4% 7% 8% 5% 9% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 10% 5% 6% 0% 7% 5% 1% -1%
Curr
ency
CORRELATION: BCOM Singles vs. Equities vs. Bond vs. Currency
5-Year
Com
mod
ities
Equi
ties
Bond
1-YearCo
mm
oditi
esEq
uitie
sBo
ndCu
rren
cy
15
All i
tem
s
Core
Food
Food
at h
ome
Food
aw
ay fr
om
hom
e
Ener
gy
Ener
gy
Com
mod
ities
Fuel
Oil
Mot
or F
uel
Ener
gy se
rvic
es
Elec
tric
ity
Util
ity g
as se
rvic
e
Com
mod
ities
less
fo
od a
nd e
nerg
y
Serv
ices
less
en
ergy
serv
ices
Shel
ter
Me d
ical
car
e
Tran
spor
tatio
n
Bloomberg Commodity 64% -10% 18% 22% -10% 67% 65% 68% 64% 7% -10% 24% 4% -14% -37% 12% 33%Energy 69% 1% 3% 6% -13% 75% 75% 71% 75% 8% -10% 26% 14% -8% -19% 4% 19%
Petroleum 76% 11% 3% 6% -12% 79% 80% 78% 80% -8% -12% 1% 22% -2% -24% 10% 26%Agriculture 27% -18% 17% 19% -5% 28% 26% 29% 26% 3% -15% 24% -12% -13% -33% 11% 29%
Grains 18% -14% 8% 10% -2% 19% 17% 17% 17% 0% -19% 23% -14% -7% -26% 16% 22%Industrial Metals 46% -2% 9% 13% -14% 46% 46% 52% 45% -10% -4% -11% 4% -4% -21% 13% 25%Precious Metals 37% -3% 36% 36% 11% 31% 26% 35% 26% 12% 10% 8% 14% -15% -31% 12% 15%
Softs 29% -23% 38% 42% -4% 30% 28% 40% 27% 11% -3% 21% -5% -25% -39% 1% 33%Livestock 23% 1% 24% 25% 4% 23% 22% 15% 22% 18% -1% 32% -9% 9% -9% 22% 19%
Natural Gas 9% -18% 2% 5% -8% 16% 14% 6% 14% 36% 1% 58% -14% -14% 5% -12% -6%WTI Crude 69% 10% 2% 4% -9% 71% 73% 69% 72% -5% -10% 4% 17% 2% -22% 13% 26%
Brent Crude 80% 12% 12% 16% -12% 81% 82% 82% 82% -6% -10% 3% 31% -7% -31% 8% 26%ULS Diesel 80% 8% 12% 15% -7% 81% 82% 86% 81% -7% -11% 2% 28% -10% -30% 8% 29%
Unleaded Gasoline 84% 15% 10% 14% -15% 85% 86% 80% 85% -10% -13% 0% 28% -1% -22% 3% 28%Corn 17% -16% 17% 18% 3% 17% 16% 21% 15% 0% -18% 22% -6% -15% -34% 16% 22%
Soybeans 27% -11% -6% -2% -15% 30% 29% 24% 29% -3% -13% 11% -13% -3% -19% 12% 23%Wheat 1% -15% 4% 4% 6% 2% 1% -5% 2% 3% -21% 30% -25% 2% -12% 14% 12%
Soybean Oil 42% -2% 3% 7% -15% 43% 42% 40% 42% -5% -12% 6% 5% -5% -32% -1% 41%Soybean Meal 16% -10% -7% -4% -11% 18% 18% 12% 18% -3% -12% 9% -21% 4% -4% 12% 15%HRW Wheat 15% -13% 15% 15% 4% 15% 12% 12% 13% 13% -13% 37% -14% -5% -26% 16% 20%
Copper 45% 4% -3% 2% -17% 45% 46% 55% 45% -14% -4% -18% 10% -2% -20% 15% 22%Alumnium 42% -14% 20% 22% -3% 43% 43% 46% 42% -13% -11% -8% 1% -19% -24% 6% 14%
Zinc 33% -1% -2% 2% -19% 35% 36% 36% 35% -7% 3% -15% -4% 3% -11% 11% 21%Nickel 35% 1% 26% 31% -12% 33% 31% 38% 31% 6% 2% 9% -5% 6% -16% 9% 34%Gold 29% 4% 38% 36% 18% 22% 17% 24% 17% 13% 8% 11% 18% -10% -25% 13% 12%Silver 44% -11% 29% 31% 1% 41% 36% 46% 35% 11% 12% 4% 7% -19% -34% 8% 15%Sugar 11% -12% 17% 19% -4% 13% 13% 20% 13% -4% -7% 3% 7% -21% -34% 3% 26%Coffee 27% -17% 50% 51% 9% 25% 20% 24% 20% 32% 7% 44% -9% -15% -15% -2% 14%Cotton 29% -26% 11% 17% -21% 33% 32% 49% 31% -4% -7% 1% -16% -21% -39% 4% 33%
Live Cattle 26% -8% 13% 14% -1% 29% 29% 24% 29% 9% 10% 3% -14% 2% -6% 20% 10%Lean Hogs 13% 8% 27% 27% 7% 11% 9% 2% 10% 21% -7% 45% -2% 12% -9% 15% 19%
S&P 500 Total Return Index 28% -26% -26% -20% -32% 36% 36% 40% 35% -3% 0% -5% -12% -23% -17% -3% -1%Bloomberg US Treasury -39% 1% 22% 15% 37% -43% -44% -45% -44% 9% 9% 5% 12% -10% -9% 7% -16%
Bloomberg USD IG Corporate -15% 0% 12% 7% 27% -19% -21% -9% -21% 11% 6% 10% 19% -16% -12% 3% -12%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate 39% 0% -18% -15% -15% 44% 46% 54% 45% -9% -12% -1% 20% -14% -27% 1% 12%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot -55% -4% -26% -28% 2% -54% -51% -49% -51% -9% 1% -17% -18% 10% 31% 5% -26%
All i
tem
s
Core
Food
Food
at h
ome
Food
aw
ay fr
om
hom
e
Ener
gy
Ener
gy
Com
mod
ities
Fuel
Oil
Mot
or F
uel
Ener
gy se
rvic
es
Elec
tric
ity
Util
ity g
as se
rvic
e
Com
mod
ities
less
fo
od a
nd e
nerg
y
Serv
ices
less
en
ergy
serv
ices
Shel
ter
Me d
ical
car
e
Tran
spor
tatio
n
Bloomberg Commodity 68% 8% 3% 7% -14% 69% 67% 65% 66% 30% -3% 40% 3% 10% 2% 10% 19%Energy 68% 4% 9% 13% -11% 71% 69% 68% 68% 36% -3% 48% 2% 6% 0% 4% 14%
Petroleum 72% 8% 8% 11% -8% 75% 76% 71% 75% 21% -1% 29% 6% 8% 0% 7% 17%Agriculture 29% 9% -2% -1% -7% 27% 26% 24% 26% 5% -3% 10% 2% 10% 7% 8% 14%
Grains 23% 9% 0% 1% -3% 20% 20% 19% 20% 2% -2% 5% 1% 11% 10% 8% 9%Industrial Metals 42% 5% -11% -8% -14% 44% 44% 42% 44% 10% -1% 13% 3% 5% -1% 9% 9%Precious Metals 30% 4% 0% 0% 0% 29% 27% 27% 27% 11% 7% 10% 4% 4% -6% 12% 16%
Softs 26% 4% -5% -2% -13% 27% 26% 21% 26% 11% -2% 16% 6% 0% -5% 5% 19%Livestock 15% -4% 17% 21% -9% 13% 11% 7% 11% 15% 8% 15% -14% 8% 4% 9% 3%
Natural Gas 36% -4% 7% 12% -15% 39% 33% 37% 32% 46% -6% 60% -2% -2% -2% -7% 2%WTI Crude 67% 9% 9% 11% -7% 69% 70% 67% 69% 20% 0% 27% 5% 10% 2% 9% 18%
Brent Crude 71% 10% 8% 11% -8% 73% 74% 69% 73% 17% 0% 23% 8% 8% 1% 7% 17%ULS Diesel 70% 5% 11% 14% -5% 73% 73% 76% 71% 25% 0% 33% 6% 4% -4% 5% 18%
Unleaded Gasoline 79% 6% 4% 7% -12% 82% 84% 67% 83% 20% -5% 27% 8% 3% -3% 3% 14%Corn 22% 7% 4% 5% -3% 19% 18% 19% 18% 4% -3% 9% 5% 5% 5% 0% 7%
Soybeans 23% 8% -4% -3% -9% 21% 21% 20% 21% 0% 1% 2% 0% 11% 9% 7% 12%Wheat 15% 7% -1% -2% 4% 13% 13% 9% 13% 1% -4% 5% -4% 11% 12% 14% 2%
Soybean Oil 31% 15% -2% -2% -5% 27% 26% 24% 25% 5% -2% 8% 4% 17% 11% 11% 16%Soybean Meal 17% 4% -3% -1% -7% 16% 16% 15% 16% 0% 5% -1% -1% 6% 5% 4% 10%HRW Wheat 22% 9% -2% -3% 3% 21% 21% 15% 21% 7% -1% 10% 1% 10% 9% 15% 3%
Copper 42% 8% -14% -12% -11% 42% 43% 40% 42% 7% -1% 10% 9% 4% -3% 10% 11%Alumnium 40% 3% 0% 3% -9% 41% 40% 44% 39% 18% 1% 22% -1% 4% 2% 4% 7%
Zinc 24% 5% -21% -19% -16% 27% 28% 21% 28% 0% -1% 0% 8% 1% 0% 3% 1%Nickel 31% -4% -7% -2% -19% 35% 36% 29% 36% 3% -3% 7% -11% 3% -3% 11% 9%Gold 28% 3% 5% 4% 5% 27% 25% 25% 25% 12% 10% 10% 2% 5% -6% 12% 16%Silver 29% 5% -7% -6% -8% 27% 26% 27% 25% 9% 2% 10% 6% 2% -5% 11% 13%Sugar 18% 8% -5% -4% -5% 17% 15% 12% 15% 12% 3% 14% 15% -1% -5% 5% 10%Coffee 12% 5% 1% 3% -8% 12% 12% 7% 12% 2% -1% 5% 3% 0% 1% -3% 6%Cotton 27% -6% -5% -2% -18% 29% 29% 32% 29% 7% -5% 11% 1% -7% -11% 2% 19%
Live Cattle 20% -6% 19% 23% -10% 19% 17% 10% 17% 15% 11% 12% -17% 9% 8% 10% 2%Lean Hogs 5% -3% 11% 14% -7% 4% 2% 3% 2% 11% 4% 14% -9% 3% -2% 6% 3%
CORRELATION: US CPI Indices vs. BCOM Composites vs. BCOM Singles vs. Benchmarks
20-Year
US CPI Indices
BCO
M C
ompo
sites
BCO
M S
ingl
esUS CPI Indices
5-Year
BCO
M C
ompo
sites
BCO
M S
ingl
esBe
nchm
arks
16
CORRELATION: World CPI vs. BCOM Composites vs. BCOM Singles vs. Benchmarks
US
Chin
a
Japa
n
Ger
man
y
UK
Fran
ce
Indi
a
Braz
il
Italy
Cana
da
Sout
h Ko
rea
Aust
ralia
Mex
ico
Spai
n
Russ
ia
Indo
nesi
a
Turk
ey
Net
herla
nds
Switz
erla
nd
Bloomberg Commodity 64% 73% -18% 53% 74% 53% 33% -39% 39% 67% 73% 82% 22% 66% -33% -15% -41% 37% 87%Energy 69% 38% 11% 54% 58% 34% 44% -57% 22% 34% 35% 73% 48% 38% -67% -10% -4% 45% 75%
Petroleum 76% 56% -12% 79% 79% 66% 58% -75% 56% 45% 59% 67% 48% 64% -80% -28% 0% 61% 70%Agriculture 27% 70% -39% 45% 66% 52% 31% -28% 44% 58% 71% 60% 11% 71% -14% -14% -57% 32% 72%
Grains 18% 56% -55% 50% 61% 55% 41% -30% 54% 39% 61% 41% 17% 78% -17% -28% -55% 44% 53%Industrial Metals 46% 53% 5% 12% 37% 15% 7% -14% 1% 53% 51% 61% 4% 34% 7% 4% -43% 1% 78%Precious Metals 37% 80% -43% 49% 70% 68% 11% -9% 60% 77% 89% 57% -9% 69% -6% -40% -31% 31% 42%
Softs 29% 77% -10% 30% 61% 41% 8% -18% 24% 77% 74% 76% -2% 46% -7% 8% -46% 6% 81%Livestock 23% 19% 53% 2% 20% 3% -14% -36% -14% 47% 25% 57% 27% -7% -29% 12% 11% -25% 64%
Natural Gas 9% -11% 49% -23% -9% -43% -6% 7% -53% -1% -24% 46% 14% -33% -7% 34% -7% -12% 41%WTI Crude 69% 48% 3% 68% 69% 55% 51% -76% 42% 41% 49% 65% 50% 49% -78% -15% 7% 49% 72%
Brent Crude 80% 69% -19% 83% 87% 73% 56% -68% 63% 55% 71% 73% 38% 70% -75% -32% -7% 63% 71%ULS Diesel 80% 76% -29% 86% 91% 78% 54% -60% 68% 62% 79% 76% 31% 77% -68% -33% -14% 66% 72%
Unleaded Gasoline 84% 66% -35% 90% 89% 79% 64% -65% 74% 50% 71% 65% 38% 82% -75% -46% -11% 77% 61%Corn 17% 66% -68% 56% 69% 64% 38% -17% 63% 46% 71% 42% 7% 84% -12% -38% -53% 54% 42%
Soybeans 27% 50% -29% 51% 58% 47% 48% -49% 43% 35% 50% 46% 31% 66% -36% -13% -46% 38% 69%Wheat 1% 23% -45% 17% 28% 22% 30% -18% 23% 10% 28% 16% 15% 54% 6% -9% -57% 22% 40%
Soybean Oil 42% 83% -55% 53% 74% 64% 34% -21% 56% 63% 82% 55% -4% 78% -10% -16% -55% 40% 60%Soybean Meal 16% 13% -11% 26% 24% 22% 33% -46% 22% 9% 17% 16% 38% 42% -27% -9% -34% 16% 49%HRW Wheat 15% 51% -34% 31% 52% 36% 30% -27% 29% 42% 54% 50% 16% 62% -6% -9% -58% 24% 68%
Copper 45% 68% -22% 35% 56% 39% 26% -25% 25% 55% 65% 61% 7% 58% -6% -2% -52% 23% 78%Alumnium 42% 50% 6% 0% 28% 6% -9% 8% -7% 55% 46% 54% -15% 22% 27% 6% -40% -9% 64%
Zinc 33% 1% 46% -24% -12% -32% -16% 2% -42% 17% 0% 30% 3% -15% 20% 12% -16% -27% 52%Nickel 35% 32% 34% 0% 25% 2% 2% -28% -14% 45% 34% 58% 24% 14% -6% 7% -22% -14% 78%Gold 29% 74% -42% 49% 68% 71% 9% -13% 64% 74% 87% 49% -6% 66% -11% -50% -16% 31% 30%Silver 44% 82% -39% 43% 68% 57% 14% -4% 47% 75% 84% 64% -13% 67% 2% -22% -51% 28% 57%Sugar 11% 90% -29% 62% 81% 70% 33% -38% 59% 75% 88% 71% 4% 67% -35% -20% -33% 36% 67%Coffee 27% 50% 24% 1% 33% 14% -26% -3% -4% 77% 53% 68% 0% 15% 8% 9% -25% -24% 71%Cotton 29% 65% -27% 18% 47% 22% 18% 0% 8% 49% 51% 61% -13% 43% 11% 35% -70% 11% 75%
Live Cattle 26% 1% 57% -38% -18% -24% -59% 14% -39% 44% 6% 24% 1% -31% 31% 17% 0% -62% 33%Lean Hogs 13% 26% 28% 34% 43% 24% 30% -64% 12% 29% 30% 60% 40% 16% -67% 1% 16% 17% 63%
S&P 500 Total Return Index 28% -12% 31% -3% -8% -28% 22% -23% -34% -19% -25% 15% 30% -9% -9% 39% -24% -1% 52%Bloomberg US Treasury -39% 23% 9% 3% 12% 12% -14% 4% 13% 34% 27% 22% -9% -5% -1% -28% 5% -16% 6%
Bloomberg USD IG Corporate -15% 13% 8% 20% 16% 27% -2% -36% 26% 25% 25% 16% 22% 7% -26% -36% 18% -9% 9%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate 39% 8% -21% 33% 21% 34% 24% -50% 31% -2% 18% 7% 34% 30% -33% -21% 13% 18% 6%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot -55% -76% 15% -67% -80% -61% -39% 44% -49% -67% -76% -86% -18% -64% 52% 23% 22% -49% -78%
US
Chin
a
Japa
n
Ger
man
y
UK
Fran
ce
Indi
a
Braz
il
Cana
da
Sout
h Ko
rea
Aust
ralia
Mex
ico
Russ
ia
Turk
ey
Net
herla
nds
Switz
erla
nd
Bloomberg Commodity 77% 47% 1% 50% 12% 67% -34% 31% 64% 18% 34% 12% -5% 7% 15% 64%Energy 74% 33% 7% 43% -4% 61% -43% 40% 64% 17% 36% 22% 5% 22% 32% 64%
Petroleum 79% 42% 4% 52% 9% 69% -38% 32% 63% 13% 33% 15% 1% 11% 24% 67%Agriculture 47% 66% 8% 49% 40% 58% 3% 25% 35% 31% 18% 13% -10% -4% 2% 35%
Grains 42% 66% 4% 50% 35% 58% 0% 26% 29% 24% 19% 14% -3% -4% 9% 29%Industrial Metals 47% 14% -5% 17% 2% 27% -25% -5% 31% -14% 9% -12% -10% -16% -27% 37%Precious Metals 39% 25% -31% 26% 40% 49% -1% -7% 30% 17% 21% -23% -17% -32% -14% 33%
Softs 33% 33% 8% 20% 33% 31% 7% 16% 36% 36% 7% 9% -15% 3% -7% 29%Livestock 36% 37% 21% 26% -5% 25% -34% 28% 34% -2% 15% 14% -7% 9% 1% 16%
Natural Gas 52% 20% 26% 21% -18% 31% -35% 40% 50% 24% 26% 29% 7% 29% 23% 43%WTI Crude 77% 41% 8% 49% 6% 67% -39% 33% 62% 12% 32% 18% 4% 14% 22% 68%
Brent Crude 80% 37% -1% 54% 14% 69% -37% 24% 64% 11% 31% 11% 0% 9% 26% 69%ULS Diesel 80% 45% 2% 55% 14% 72% -38% 32% 66% 14% 37% 9% -6% 3% 23% 66%
Unleaded Gasoline 76% 39% -7% 51% 12% 67% -31% 29% 62% 14% 28% 11% -4% 9% 26% 58%Corn 40% 66% 4% 47% 49% 52% 11% 27% 28% 26% 24% 24% 7% 3% 14% 21%
Soybeans 34% 55% 8% 43% 24% 53% -1% 22% 23% 23% 8% 1% -18% -11% 2% 25%Wheat 39% 59% 0% 45% 17% 50% -13% 25% 26% 5% 25% 12% 5% -7% 6% 33%
Soybean Oil 48% 49% 1% 51% 29% 63% 0% 6% 34% 36% 17% -10% -17% -14% 4% 37%Soybean Meal 21% 45% 1% 35% 11% 40% -15% 22% 17% 0% 16% -2% -20% -16% 5% 19%HRW Wheat 51% 61% 9% 48% 26% 54% -11% 25% 36% 16% 29% 19% 8% -2% 4% 42%
Copper 51% 23% -7% 24% 9% 36% -19% -3% 29% -8% 13% -10% -10% -20% -27% 41%Alumnium 58% 13% 5% 29% 1% 37% -32% -6% 47% -4% 14% -17% -10% -8% -10% 48%
Zinc 20% -4% -1% -8% -9% -7% -14% -13% 4% -24% -12% -7% -12% -11% -40% 5%Nickel 24% -1% -18% -3% -11% 12% -32% 2% 26% -28% 6% -12% -3% -11% -23% 22%Gold 38% 25% -33% 27% 38% 54% -5% -2% 32% 6% 30% -28% -18% -40% -11% 34%Silver 38% 23% -21% 23% 35% 37% 1% -11% 24% 27% 8% -11% -11% -15% -16% 29%Sugar 43% 20% -18% 21% 20% 42% -8% 29% 42% 28% 36% 8% -13% 3% 12% 38%Coffee 16% 20% 43% 9% 22% 0% 3% -9% 15% 23% -35% 8% -17% 6% -33% 12%Cotton 21% 43% -3% 4% 33% 20% 22% 24% 25% 9% 14% 14% 9% -9% -17% 17%
Live Cattle 27% 26% 24% 14% -18% 20% -44% 25% 38% -8% 5% 0% -8% -3% -12% 9%Lean Hogs 33% 37% 10% 31% 7% 26% -19% 27% 23% 3% 24% 19% -11% 14% 12% 16%
BCO
M C
ompo
sites
BCO
M S
ingl
es
CPI by Country
5-Year
CPI by CountryBC
OM
Com
posit
esBC
OM
Sin
gles
Benc
hmar
ks
20-Year
17
CORRELATION: World GDP vs. BCOM Composites vs. BCOM Singles vs. Benchmarks
US
Chin
a
Japa
n
Ger
man
y
UK
Fran
ce
Indi
a
Braz
il
Italy
Cana
da
Sout
h Ko
rea
Aust
ralia
Mex
ico
Spai
n
Russ
ia
Indo
nesi
a
Turk
ey
Net
herla
nds
Switz
erla
nd
Bloomberg Commodity 4% 83% -29% 29% -1% 33% 78% 62% 4% 69% 11% 21% 22% -45% 76% -3% 23% -68% 25%Energy 14% 34% -6% 3% 6% 3% 35% 58% -25% 56% 6% 26% -2% -41% 74% -9% -16% -55% 33%
Petroleum 18% 53% -23% 3% 0% 3% 58% 70% -38% 62% -5% 31% 19% -69% 92% -9% -13% -81% 25%Agriculture -15% 84% -41% 34% 2% 41% 80% 59% 14% 62% 17% 12% 20% -45% 62% -2% 38% -65% 22%
Grains -25% 72% -40% 19% 2% 36% 69% 60% 0% 50% 11% 6% 11% -58% 55% 1% 30% -65% 19%Industrial Metals 8% 75% -22% 36% -7% 46% 63% 34% 44% 47% 9% 5% 27% -4% 39% -5% 37% -35% 17%Precious Metals 6% 86% -21% 24% -18% 32% 82% 36% -3% 44% -5% 23% 45% -48% 57% 3% 29% -60% -7%
Softs 3% 86% -35% 50% 2% 41% 82% 44% 29% 66% 21% 18% 32% -18% 60% -5% 41% -51% 19%Livestock 17% 29% -13% 26% 6% 15% 27% 26% 13% 42% 1% 7% 19% 11% 39% -14% -1% -19% 27%
Natural Gas 6% -16% 29% 7% 13% 2% -24% 2% 12% 15% 27% 4% -36% 35% 4% -6% -9% 21% 26%WTI Crude 20% 46% -20% 7% 3% 3% 52% 67% -29% 59% -3% 30% 16% -55% 86% -11% -14% -73% 28%
Brent Crude 17% 62% -23% 4% -3% 5% 66% 68% -40% 66% -5% 34% 26% -72% 95% -8% -9% -83% 19%ULS Diesel 15% 70% -26% 9% -1% 10% 74% 67% -36% 69% -4% 32% 29% -74% 95% -5% -4% -85% 17%
Unleaded Gasoline 12% 60% -23% -5% -4% 3% 64% 69% -49% 61% -10% 30% 24% -84% 93% -4% -11% -86% 16%Corn -22% 75% -32% 19% -2% 36% 72% 55% -8% 44% 7% 12% 12% -63% 55% 4% 29% -65% 12%
Soybeans -21% 60% -41% 15% 10% 23% 60% 62% -2% 61% 13% 8% 14% -54% 63% -2% 22% -64% 23%Wheat -31% 55% -43% 21% 5% 44% 48% 49% 28% 31% 20% -16% -8% -30% 23% 3% 36% -43% 27%
Soybean Oil -7% 93% -40% 38% -4% 39% 90% 53% 12% 60% 17% 16% 31% -50% 64% 2% 44% -69% 12%Soybean Meal -29% 31% -39% 3% 11% 15% 30% 47% 3% 40% 6% -9% 6% -36% 34% -2% 15% -40% 23%HRW Wheat -18% 77% -42% 32% 5% 48% 69% 58% 24% 53% 19% 1% 6% -35% 49% -4% 38% -57% 28%
Copper 4% 88% -34% 39% -6% 42% 80% 47% 34% 60% 15% 6% 32% -28% 54% -2% 43% -56% 19%Alumnium 10% 68% -10% 36% -13% 46% 56% 19% 49% 29% 4% 11% 23% 10% 23% -5% 34% -19% 8%
Zinc 12% 19% 6% 9% -14% 20% 4% 0% 46% 8% -12% -8% 10% 34% -6% 4% 6% 16% 8%Nickel 7% 54% -19% 31% 2% 47% 45% 35% 36% 43% 8% 1% 18% 5% 37% -13% 29% -28% 22%Gold 7% 79% -16% 18% -22% 28% 77% 34% -13% 35% -12% 24% 47% -51% 55% 3% 24% -60% -10%Silver 5% 90% -29% 31% -10% 36% 84% 36% 11% 53% 6% 18% 40% -39% 56% 2% 35% -56% 0%Sugar 8% 83% -32% 26% -11% 18% 85% 53% -11% 66% 8% 40% 42% -57% 82% -1% 26% -72% 9%Coffee 7% 62% -20% 44% -3% 37% 54% 25% 34% 43% 6% 12% 26% 11% 35% -5% 26% -21% 16%Cotton -6% 80% -40% 60% 23% 48% 74% 37% 51% 67% 45% -5% 12% -5% 42% -2% 55% -40% 26%
Live Cattle 9% 11% -12% 32% 2% 24% 3% -13% 41% 6% -19% -6% 14% 51% -16% -12% 15% 30% 11%Lean Hogs 16% 33% -7% 9% 5% 4% 35% 49% -15% 51% 16% 15% 15% -28% 67% -11% -13% -52% 28%
S&P 500 Total Return Index -5% -7% -9% 14% 24% 14% -9% 22% 33% 19% 17% -4% -33% 18% 6% -3% -7% 3% 32%Bloomberg US Treasury 5% 20% 33% -16% -56% -4% 22% 3% -8% -20% -10% 54% 19% -12% 17% 16% -21% -13% -14%
Bloomberg USD IG Corporate -1% 21% 13% -15% -43% 2% 26% 27% -20% -13% -13% 50% 9% -33% 32% 3% -33% -38% -12%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate 14% 30% -33% 9% 1% 20% 34% 46% -16% 21% -8% 7% -13% -37% 37% -19% 10% -55% 13%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot -19% -71% 22% -8% 9% -6% -71% -56% 21% -69% -6% -35% -29% 58% -87% 0% 3% 71% -16%
US
Chin
a
Japa
n
Ger
man
y
UK
Fran
ce
Cana
da
Sout
h Ko
rea
Aust
ralia
Mex
ico
Spai
n
Switz
erla
nd
Bloomberg Commodity 40% 45% 17% 30% 31% 35% 50% 4% 6% 41% 37% 35%Energy 35% 11% 10% 10% 21% 21% 36% 3% -2% 24% 37% 18%
Petroleum 37% 23% 11% 15% 21% 22% 42% 6% 0% 28% 30% 26%Agriculture 11% 51% 6% 21% 18% 15% 34% -12% 7% 33% 1% 15%
Grains 6% 44% 3% 13% 13% 10% 28% -9% 8% 26% -3% 8%Industrial Metals 46% 65% 30% 51% 38% 51% 47% 14% 10% 47% 45% 61%Precious Metals 9% 64% 2% 22% 7% 17% 30% 5% 6% 22% -8% 20%
Softs 18% 35% 4% 29% 18% 21% 34% -11% 3% 36% 5% 21%Livestock 44% 12% 23% 27% 31% 30% 20% 6% 14% 32% 36% 34%
Natural Gas 27% -9% 5% 1% 12% 16% 15% -13% -8% 13% 40% 4%WTI Crude 37% 22% 11% 14% 20% 21% 41% 8% 2% 27% 33% 25%
Brent Crude 37% 27% 10% 18% 21% 24% 48% 10% 3% 29% 27% 30%ULS Diesel 32% 24% 9% 13% 18% 16% 38% 2% -5% 25% 23% 23%
Unleaded Gasoline 39% 24% 14% 20% 27% 28% 48% 4% -1% 35% 24% 29%Corn 1% 30% -1% 7% 2% 4% 14% -14% 6% 21% -13% -2%
Soybeans 8% 39% 4% 8% 15% 9% 35% -10% 8% 28% -4% 10%Wheat 6% 51% 9% 22% 23% 13% 26% 1% 4% 21% 12% 15%
Soybean Oil 11% 59% 0% 13% 15% 14% 30% -13% 12% 20% 9% 14%Soybean Meal -4% 23% 4% 7% 8% 5% 29% -2% -3% 23% -12% 12%HRW Wheat 12% 54% 7% 25% 23% 16% 28% -1% 4% 27% 15% 17%
Copper 40% 67% 26% 46% 34% 43% 46% 13% 7% 47% 35% 55%Alumnium 44% 49% 22% 44% 31% 48% 40% 5% 8% 37% 50% 55%
Zinc 45% 50% 37% 55% 37% 53% 37% 11% 9% 50% 43% 61%Nickel 44% 53% 33% 45% 44% 51% 51% 27% 15% 40% 46% 55%Gold 0% 63% 2% 14% 1% 3% 23% 11% 1% 13% -16% 11%Silver 23% 58% 2% 33% 15% 36% 39% -4% 13% 34% 7% 32%Sugar 9% 26% 2% 15% 7% 5% 18% -9% -8% 21% -1% 7%Coffee 22% 21% 4% 20% 7% 23% 26% -13% 12% 33% 12% 31%Cotton 17% 29% 12% 31% 27% 22% 35% 5% -3% 34% 2% 22%
Live Cattle 44% 16% 21% 28% 31% 35% 25% 7% 16% 32% 42% 38%Lean Hogs 32% 8% 22% 19% 25% 17% 10% 3% 9% 25% 19% 22%
20-Year
BCO
M C
ompo
sites
BCO
M S
ingl
es
GDP by Country
5-Year
GDP by CountryBC
OM
Com
posit
esBC
OM
Sin
gles
Benc
hmar
ks
18
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT: Commodity Futures & Options, Money ManagersCOT <GO>
Group Commodity End of Oct 2015 Net Position (Lots)
End of Sep 2015 Net Position
(Lots)
Notional Change ($mill, with end
of Oct 2015 price)
End of Oct 2015 Notional ($ mill)
Natural Gas -208,915 -182,283 -557 -4,371 WTI Crude 143,291 169,392 -1,128 6,190
Brent Crude 161,196 173,819 -591 7,546 ULS Diesel -37,286 -28,049 -553 -2,231 Gasoline 12,081 16,612 -245 653
Total -3,073 7,788 Corn 33,600 66,625 -627 638
Soybeans 2,376 -46,250 2,167 106 Wheat -33,264 -35,365 53 -847
Soybean Oil 20,506 -18,796 658 343 Soybean Meal 8,388 18,200 -299 256 HRW Wheat -12,320 -8,533 -92 -301
Total 1,859 195 Copper 8,186 -5,106 785 483
Aluminum 22,199 83,381 -2,245 815 Zinc 4,378 471 170 191
Nickel 20,776 13,152 480 1,308 Total -810 2,797 Gold 120,645 21,525 11,565 14,077 Silver 51,585 14,515 2,940 4,091 Total 14,506 18,168 Sugar 137,221 -13,357 2,432 2,216 Coffee -13,606 -24,702 488 -598 Cotton 43,942 18,363 797 1,370 Total 3,717 2,987
Live Cattle 8,389 4,903 191 459Lean Hogs 38,553 29,924 211 945
Total 402 1,403Total 16,601 33,339
Historical Correlation
1-Year 5-Year 1-Year 5-Year 1-Year 5-Year Natural Gas 14% 21% -52% -38% 56% 46% WTI Crude -18% 36% -49% -47% 30% 53%
Brent Crude -22% 40% -30% -37% 5% 46% ULS Diesel 1% 37% -58% -38% 54% 49% Gasoline -4% 35% -38% -10% 24% 39%
Corn 42% 59% -35% -49% 51% 65% Soybeans 66% 68% -81% -57% 81% 73%
Wheat 58% 51% -63% -62% 67% 67% Soybean Oil 49% 53% -78% -62% 76% 66%
Soybean Meal 63% 54% -55% -44% 70% 60% HRW Wheat 9% 25% -34% 41% 52%
Copper 36% 50% -63% -53% 58% 59% Aluminum 4% -20% 32%
Zinc 21% -47% 59% Nickel 33% -30% 62% Gold 68% 61% -53% -49% 67% 65% Silver 46% 56% -55% -47% 59% 60% Sugar 53% 47% -75% -57% 81% 63% Coffee 70% 47% -68% -66% 82% 67% Cotton 68% 55% -52% -53% 72% 61%
Live Cattle 11% 22% 11% -6% -2% 18%Lean Hogs 13% 19% -3% -13% 5% 14%
CommodityBCOM Single Index Level vs. MM's
Long PositionBCOM Single Index Level vs. MM's
Short PositionBCOM Single Index Level vs.
MM's Net Position
Energy
Group
Grains
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Softs
Livestock
Livestock
Energy
Grains
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Softs
19
Gasoline Corn
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT: Historical Money Manager's Net Position vs. BCOM Index LevelNatural Gas WTI Crude
Brent Crude ULS Diesel
Soybeans Wheat
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal
HRW Wheat
0
20
40
60
80
100
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
050000
100000150000200000250000300000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-60000-40000-20000
0200004000060000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
500
1000
1500
-200000
20000400006000080000
100000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
20
40
60
80
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
200
400
600
800
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
50
100
150
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
050100150200250300
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
500
1000
1500
2000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
100
200
300
400
500
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
20
Sugar Coffee
Cotton Live Cattle
Lean Hogs
Copper Aluminum
Zinc Nickel
Gold Silver
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT: Historical Money Manager's Net Position vs. BCOM Index Level
020040060080010001200
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
50
100
150
200
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
100
200
300
400
020000400006000080000
100000120000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
020040060080010001200
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
100
200
300
400
500
-500000
50000100000150000200000250000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
020040060080010001200
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
200
400
600
800
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
020406080100120
-40000-20000
020000400006000080000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
020406080100120
-40000-20000
020000400006000080000
100000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
50
100
150
200
250
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
0
20
40
60
80
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Money Manager's Net Position Index Level
21
GLOBAL COMMODITIES INVENTORIES & SALES DATAECO17 <GO>
Group Inventory/SalesRelated Commodities
UnitEnd of Oct
2015End of Sep
2015Change
(%)DOE Natural Gas Total Inventory Natural Gas bcf 3,877 3,538 10%DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory WTI Crude mm barrels 480 458 5%DOE Cushing Oklahoma Crude Oil Total Stocks WTI Crude mm barrels 53 53 1%DOE Distillate Fuel Oil Total Inventory ULS Diesel mm barrels 142 152 -6%DOE Motor Gasoline Total Inventory Gasoline mm barrels 219 222 -2%USDA Corn Total Export Sales Corn thousand MT 709 801 -12%USDA Soybeans Total Export Sales Soybeans thousand MT 2,156 2,510 -14%USDA All Wheat Total Export Sales Wheat, HRW Wheat thousand MT 551 77 614%USDA Soybean Oil Total Export Sales Soybean Oil thousand MT 82 25 234%USDA Soybean Cake Meal Total Export Sales Soybean Meal thousand MT 219 264 -17%Comex Copper Total Inventory Copper thousand short ton 49 40 22%LME Copper Total Inventory Copper thousand MT 278 325 -15%LME Primary Aluminum Total Inventory Aluminum thousand MT 3,082 3,189 -3%LME Zinc Total Inventory Zinc thousand MT 578 596 -3%LME Nickel Total Inventory Nickel thousand MT 430 455 -6%Comex Gold Total Inventory Gold mm ounces 7 7 -2%Comex Silver Total Inventory Silver mm ounces 162 167 -3%
Softs USDA All Upland Cotton Total Export Sales Cotton thousand bales 82 118 -30%USDA Cattle Slaughter Estimates Daily Live Cattle thousand heads 104 111 -6%USDA Hogs Slaughter Estimates Daily Lean Hogs thousand heads 431 422 2%
Historical Correlation
Group Inventory/Sales 1-Year 5-YearDOE Natural Gas Total Inventory 25% -4%DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory -57% -83%DOE Cushing Oklahoma Crude Oil Total Stocks -68% -55%DOE Distillate Fuel Oil Total Inventory -86% -20%DOE Motor Gasoline Total Inventory -53% -19%USDA Corn Total Export Sales 38% -26%USDA Soybeans Total Export Sales -28% -3%USDA All Wheat Total Export Sales -3% 25%USDA Soybean Oil Total Export Sales -25% -8%USDA Soybean Cake Meal Total Export Sales -18% 19%Comex Copper Total Inventory -60% 70%LME Copper Total Inventory -59% 24%LME Primary Aluminum Total Inventory 96% 12%LME Zinc Total Inventory 20% -10%LME Nickel Total Inventory -79% -65%Comex Gold Total Inventory 47% 82%Comex Silver Total Inventory 34% -86%
Softs USDA All Upland Cotton Total Export Sales -59% 0%USDA Cattle Slaughter Estimates Daily -15% -32%USDA Hogs Slaughter Estimates Daily 18% -26%
Livestock
Livestock
Energy
Grains
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy
Grains
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
vs. BCOM Cotton Indexvs. BCOM Live Cattle Indexvs. BCOM Lean Hogs Index
vs. BCOM Natural Gas Index
vs. BCOM Unleaded Gasoline Index
vs. BCOM Copper Indexvs. BCOM Copper Indexvs. BCOM Alumnium Indexvs. BCOM Zinc Indexvs. BCOM Nickel Index
vs. BCOM Corn Indexvs. BCOM Soybeans Indexvs. BCOM Wheat Indexvs. BCOM Soybean Oil Indexvs. BCOM Soybean Meal Index
BCOM Index
vs. BCOM WTI Crude Indexvs. BCOM WTI Crude Indexvs. BCOM ULS Diesel Index
vs. BCOM Silver Indexvs. BCOM Gold Index
22
Soybeans Wheat
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal
HISTORICAL GLOBAL COMMODITIES INVENTORIES & SALES DATA vs. BCOMNatural Gas WTI Crude
WTI Crude ULS Diesel
Gasoline Corn
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
DOE Natural Gas Total Inventory BCOM Natural Gas Index
0
500
1000
1500
2000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory BCOM WTI Crude Index
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
04 06 08 10 12 14
DOE Cushing Oklahoma Crude Oil Total Stocks BCOM WTI Crude Index
0
200
400
600
800
1000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
DOE Distillate Fuel Oil Total Inventory BCOM ULS Diesel Index
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
150000
170000
190000
210000
230000
250000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
DOE Motor Gasoline Total Inventory BCOM Unleaded Gasoline Index
020406080100120140160
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
USDA Corn Total Export Sales BCOM Corn Index
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
USDA Soybeans Total Export Sales BCOM Soybeans Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
USDA All Wheat Total Export Sales BCOM Wheat Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
07 09 11 13 15
USDA Soybean Oil Total Export Sales BCOM Soybean Oil Index
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
07 09 11 13 15
USDA Soybean Cake Meal Total Export Sales BCOM Soybean Meal Index
23
Silver Cotton
Live Cattle Lean Hogs
HISTORICAL GLOBAL COMMODITIES INVENTORIES & SALES DATA vs. BCOMCopper Copper
Aluminum Zinc
Nickel Gold
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Comex Copper Total Inventory BCOM Copper Index
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
LME Copper Total Inventory BCOM Copper Index
0
50
100
150
200
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
LME Primary Aluminum Total Inventory BCOM Alumnium Index
050100150200250300350400
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
LME Zinc Total Inventory BCOM Zinc Index
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
LME Nickel Total Inventory BCOM Nickel Index
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Comex Gold Total Inventory BCOM Gold Index
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Comex Silver Total Inventory BCOM Silver Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
07 09 11 13 15
USDA All Upland Cotton Total Export Sales BCOM Cotton Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
USDA Cattle Slaughter Estimates Daily BCOM Live Cattle Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
USDA Hogs Slaughter Estimates Daily BCOM Lean Hogs Index
24
COMMODITY FUND FLOWS FOR US-LISTED ETPsXLTP FLOW <GO>
Report Period: 9/30/2015 - 10/30/2015
Net Flows ($ mill)
Beginning Fund Market Cap
($ mill)
% of Funds Market Cap
15.14 6,311.13 0.2%578.84 7,550.34 7.7%-12.19 1,457.15 -0.8%0.54 26.65 2.0%-8.20 235.63 -3.5%
265.48 38,534.48 0.7%839.61 54,115.37 1.6%
All Commodities Sector: Top 10 Creations
Ticker Name Net Flows ($ mill)
Beginning Fund Market Cap
($ mill)
% of Funds Market Cap
GLD US SPDR Gold Shares 310.08 24,792.20 1.3%USO US United States Oil Fund LP 268.48 2,480.78 10.8%
UGAZ US VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas 169.13 505.58 33.5%UWTI US VelocityShares 3x Long Crude ETN 142.24 839.94 16.9%UCO US ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude 75.61 790.16 9.6%UNG US United States Natural Gas Fund 46.21 561.53 8.2%IAU US iShares Gold Trust 40.19 5,814.61 0.7%ZSL US ProShares UltraShort Silver 19.95 55.09 36.2%
FTGC US First Trust Global Tactical Commodity 17.32 195.08 8.9%DSLV US VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver 12.46 10.24 121.7%
All Commodities Sector: Top 10 Redemptions
Ticker Name Net Flows ($ mill)
Beginning Fund Market Cap
($ mill)
% of Funds Market Cap
SLV US iShares Silver Trust -55.28 4,645.72 -1.2%DWTI US VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil -49.69 204.08 -24.3%SCO US ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Commodity -27.47 145.52 -18.9%
DGAZ US VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas -25.52 47.87 -53.3%DBA US PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund -21.08 818.89 -2.6%USLV US VelocityShares 3x Long Silver -17.15 113.16 -15.2%PPLT US ETFS Physical Platinum Shares -14.11 433.80 -3.3%AGQ US ProShares Ultra Silver -9.22 244.44 -3.8%DBC US PowerShares DB Commodity Index -8.36 2,451.52 -0.3%DBB US PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund -8.02 150.05 -5.3%
Sector
LivestockIndustrial MetalsPrecious Metals
Total
Broad BasedEnergy
Agriculture
25
COMMODITY FUTURES TERM STRUCTUREENERGY GROUP
GRAINS GROUP
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
NO
V 15
AUG
16M
AY 1
7FE
B 18
NO
V 18
AUG
19M
AY 2
0FE
B 21
NO
V 21
AUG
22M
AY 2
3FE
B 24
NO
V 24
AUG
25M
AY 2
6FE
B 27
NO
V 27
Natural Gas
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-201540455055606570
NO
V 15
MAR
16
JUL
16N
OV
16M
AR 1
7JU
L 17
NO
V 17
MAR
18
JUL
18N
OV
18M
AR 1
9JU
L 19
NO
V 19
MAR
20
JUL
20N
OV
20JU
N 2
2
WTI Crude
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
4550556065707580
NO
V 15
APR
16SE
P 16
FEB
17JU
L 17
DEC
17M
AY 1
8O
CT 1
8M
AR 1
9AU
G 19
JAN
20
JUN
20
NO
V 20
APR
21SE
P 21
FEB
22JU
L 22
Brent Crude
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
140
160
180
200
220
OCT
15
JAN
16
APR
16
JUL
16
OCT
16
JAN
17
APR
17
JUL
17
OCT
17
JAN
18
APR
18
JUL
18
OCT
18
JAN
19
ULS Diesel
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
100
120
140
160
180
200
OCT
15
DEC
15FE
B 16
APR
16JU
N 1
6AU
G 16
OCT
16
DEC
16FE
B 17
APR
17JU
N 1
7AU
G 17
OCT
17
DEC
17FE
B 18
APR
18JU
N 1
8AU
G 18
Unleaded Gasoline
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
280285290295300305310315
OCT
15
JAN
16
MAY
16
AUG
16
OCT
16
JAN
17
MAY
17
AUG
17
OCT
17
JUL
18
DEC
18
Soybean Meal
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015450
500
550
600
650
DEC
15
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16
SEP
16
DEC
16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17
SEP
17
DEC
17
HRW Wheat
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
350
370
390
410
430
450
DEC
15
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16
SEP
16
DEC
16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17
SEP
17
DEC
17
JUL
18
DEC
18
Corn
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015850
900
950
1000
NO
V 15
JAN
16
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16AU
G 16
SEP
16N
OV
16JA
N 1
7M
AR 1
7M
AY 1
7JU
L 17
AUG
17SE
P 17
NO
V 17
JUL
18N
OV
18
Soybeans
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
450
500
550
600
DEC
15
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16
SEP
16
DEC
16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17
SEP
17
DEC
17
Wheat
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-201526
27
28
29
30
31
OCT
15
JAN
16
MAY
16
AUG
16
OCT
16
JAN
17
MAY
17
AUG
17
OCT
17
JUL
18
DEC
18
Soybean Oil
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
26
COMMODITY FUTURES TERM STRUCTUREINDUSTRIAL METALS GROUP
PRECIOUS METALS GROUP
SOFTS GROUP
LIVESTOCK GROUP
230231232233234235236237238
OCT
15
JAN
16
APR
16
JUL
16
OCT
16
JAN
17
APR
17
JUL
17
DEC
17
JUL
18
MAR
19
SEP
19
MAY
20
Copper
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-20151300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
OCT
15
MAY
16
DEC
16JU
L 17
FEB
18SE
P 18
APR
19N
OV
19JU
N 2
0FE
B 21
SEP
21AP
R 22
NO
V 22
JUN
23
JAN
24
AUG
24M
AR 2
5O
CT 2
5
Aluminum
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
OCT
15
DEC
15
APR
16
AUG
16
DEC
16
APR
17
AUG
17
JUN
18
JUN
19
JUN
20
JUN
21
Gold
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-201513
13.514
14.515
15.516
16.517
OCT
15
DEC
15
MAR
16
JUL
16
DEC
16
MAR
17
JUL
17
JUL
18
JUL
19
JUL
20
Silver
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
10
11
12
13
14
15
OCT
15
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16
OCT
16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17
OCT
17
MAR
18
MAY
18
Sugar
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015110
120
130
140
150
DEC
15M
AR 1
6M
AY 1
6JU
L 16
SEP
16DE
C 16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17SE
P 17
DEC
17M
AR 1
8M
AY 1
8JU
L 18
SEP
18
Coffee
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
5055606570758085
OCT
15
DEC
15
FEB
16
APR
16
MAY
16
JUN
16
JUL
16
AUG
16
OCT
16
DEC
16
FEB
17
Lean Hogs
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
110115120125130135140145150
OCT
15
DEC
15
FEB
16
APR
16
JUN
16
AUG
16
OCT
16
DEC
16
FEB
17
Live Cattle
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
OCT
15
FEB
16JU
N 1
6O
CT 1
6FE
B 17
JUN
17
OCT
17
FEB
18JU
N 1
8O
CT 1
8FE
B 19
JUN
19
OCT
19
FEB
20JU
N 2
0O
CT 2
0
Zinc
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
9800
10000
10200
10400
10600
OCT
15
FEB
16JU
N 1
6O
CT 1
6FE
B 17
JUN
17
OCT
17
FEB
18JU
N 1
8O
CT 1
8FE
B 19
JUN
19
OCT
19
FEB
20JU
N 2
0O
CT 2
0
Nickel
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
585960616263646566
OCT
15
DEC
15
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16
OCT
16
DEC
16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17
OCT
17
DEC
17
MAR
18
MAY
18
Cotton
30-Sep-2015
30-Oct-2015
27
BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE: COMMODITY DASHBOARDS BI <GO>
Crude Oil Production: BI OILS <GO> Natural Gas Production: BI NGAS <GO>
Precious Metal Mining: BI PMET <GO> Agricultural Chemicals: BI AGCH <GO>
Copper: BI COPP <GO> Aluminum: BI ALUM <GO>
BI provides analysis on several key drivers of BCOM performance; industrial and precious metals mining, oil and natural gas production, and agricultural chemicals. The dashboards include key macro data libraries and interactive charting and commentary from analysts with an average of seventeen years of experience.
28
COMMODITY CHEAT SHEET FOR THE BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL® SERVICE
Broad Commodities EnergyTop commodity news CTOP Top energy news ETOPCommodity markets menu <COMDTY> F9 Top oil news OTOP Global commodity prices GLCO Crude Oil Production Dashboard BI OILSCommodity playbook CPLY First Word oil NI BFWOIL Commitments of traders report COT News on oil inventories TNI OIL INV Calendar of commodity events ECO17 Oil Buyer's Guide newsletter NI OBGBRIEFCommodity arbitrage calculator CARC Pipes & Wires newsletter NI PAWSBRIEFCommodity fundamental data explorer FDM Oil market analysis BOILCommodity futures overview CMBQ Nat gas spot prices BGASSecurity finder SECF Forward European utility markets EUMCommodity data contributors & broker CDAT News on oil markets NI OILMARKET Contract table menu CTM News on OPEC NI OPEC Seasonality chart SEAG OPEC production and prices OPECCommodity curve analysis CCRV Oil markets menu OIL Commodity fair values CFVL Crude stored in tankers NOONCommodity price forecasts CPFC Refinery outages REFOCommitments of Traders Report COT Oil’s decline EXT5 Commodity maps BMAP Oil versus inflation expectations SWIFCommodity options monitor OMON Commodities charts COSY MetalsCommodity Investors menu CMNV Top metal news METT US exchange traded product fund flows ETF Precious metal dashboard BI PMETG
Base metals dashboard BI BMETCommodity Indices Metals prices and data MINE Index description BCOM Index DES Precious metals prices and rates MTL Index constituent weights BCOM Index MEMB Metals Bulletin MB Listed index futures BCOM Index CT COMEX inventories COMX Option volatility surface BCOM Index OVDV LME monitor LME Seasonality chart BCOMNG Index SEAG LME implied volatilities LMIV Commodity index futures movers FMV LME warehouse inventories LMEI Commodity index ranked returns CRR
AgricultureWeather Top agriculture news YTOP Global weather database WETR Agriculture calendar AGRI US snow monitor SNOW Agriculture spot prices AGGPEU weather & utility models EUMM Agriculture supply & demand AGSD
Crop calendar CCAL
BCOM QUICK FACTS
Weighting Bias 2/3 market liquidity and 1/3 world production No. of Commodities 20 Re-balancing Frequency Annual Roll Schedule Monthly (5 day roll) Caps/Limits Single commodity: max 15%
Single commodity and its derivatives: max 25%Related commodity groups: max 33%
First Value Date 30 December 1990
The data provided in this report can be easily accessed on the Bloomberg Professional® service along with numerous news and analytical tools to help you stay on top of the commodity markets.
29