Biweekly BREXITWATCH Issue20 January2019€¦ · EuropeanUnionRelationship&IndustrialStrategy Biweekly BREXITWATCH Issue20 January2019 TaskforcerepresentingElectrical,Electronics,Mechanical,Plastics

European Union Relationship & Industrial Strategy

BiweeklyBREXITWATCHIssue 20January 2019

Taskforce representing Electrical, Electronics, Mechanical, Plastics & Fabricated Metals Industries

Brexit Watch - 2019 Issue 20

The Brexit Watch report monitors the short-term UK macro economic indicators to assessthe impact of UK decision to leave European Union on UK economy. The report also mon-itors indicators in six EURIS industries (EURIS6), namely, Plastic (SIC 22), Fabricated Metals(SIC 25), Electronic (SIC 26), Electrical (SIC 27), Mechanical (SIC 28) and Repairs & Installation(SIC 33).

The emphasis of this report is to monitor what has happened as opposed to what will hap-pen. All the data with exception to exchange rates and OECD Composite indicator comefrom the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

A vertical purple line on the charts marks 23rd of June 2016, the date of the referendum.

The main points at the end of week 5 in 2019 are as follows:

? Sterling rate in January 2019 improved slightly against theUS Dollar from Decem-ber 2018 but remained 6.7% below January 2018 rate.

? The second estimate UKGDP growth for Q3 2018was unrevised at 0.6%, equivalentto £510 billion and a growth of 1.5% compared to Q3 2017.

? Unemployment rate remained at 4.0% in the three months to November 2018 asthe number employed increased by 328 thousand and the number unemployedfell by 68 thousand compared to a year earlier.

? Input prices slowed down to 3.7% in the twelve months to December 2018, thelowest since June 2016.

? Consumer price Index including owner occupiers’s cost rose by 2.0% in December2018, the lowest 12-month growth since January 2017.

? Index of production fell by 1.5% in December 2018 on yearly basis as all sub-sectors of production declined.

? Construction grew by 3.0% in November 2018 compared to a year earlier, drivenby new construction work.

? Business Investment in 2018 Q3 declined by 1.8%, the lowest 4-quarter growthsince 2016 Q1.

? Exports in November 2018 rose by 2.9% to £54.0 billion and imports also rose by4.5% to £56.9 billion compared to twelve months earlier.

? Themoving annual turnover for the EURIS6 group reached £153.9 billion inNovem-ber 2018, representing a growth of 4.2% compared to November 2017. The groupexported £53.5 billion in the twelve months to November 2018, a growth of 3.6%and the workforce now stands at 1,112 thousand.

January 2019E Amoakohene

2

Contents

Glossary 5

1 Exchange Rates & Stock Market 6

2 GDP & Unemployment 7

3 Producer Prices 8

4 Consumer Prices 9

5 Production & Services 10

6 Construction 11

7 Retail Sales 12

8 Business Investment 13

9 UK Trade 149.1 Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.2 Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159.3 Goods Trade: Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169.4 Goods Trade: Ranking by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179.5 Goods Trade: Ranking by Country - Top 16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189.6 Goods Trade: Growth Ranking by Country - Top 16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199.7 Goods Trade: EU & Commonwealth by SITC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

10 Economy At a Glance 2210.1 Growth: 12-month % growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2210.2 Growth: 4-quarter % growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2310.3 Growth Ranking: Since December 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2410.4 Growth Ranking: Since Referendum Vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

11 Industry Level Indicators 2611.1 Turnover - (November 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2611.2 Exports - (November 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2711.3 Index of Production - (November 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2811.4 Employment - (September 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

12 Growth Cycles 3012.1 About Growth Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3012.2 Exchange Rate (USD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3112.3 Exchange Rate (Euro) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3112.4 FTSE 100 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3212.5 OECD Composite Leading Indicator - UK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3212.6 Gross Domestic Product - GDP (ABMI-UKEA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3312.7 Unemployed Persons (MGSC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3312.8 Exports - Value (IKBH) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3412.9 Imports - Value (IKBI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3412.10 Input Prices (K646) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

3

12.11 Consumer Price Index (D7BT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3512.12Current State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

13 G7 Indicators (Latest) 3713.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3713.2 Unemployment & Wage Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3813.3 Inflation & Producer Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3913.4 Retail Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4013.5 Purchasers Managers Index - Manufacturing & Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4113.6 Industrial Production & Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4213.7 Debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4313.8 Employer Social Security Rate & Corporate Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Appendices 45

Appendix A UK Businesses: Activity, Size & Location 45A.1 Enterprises by Employment Size Band . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45A.2 Enterprises by Turnover Size Band . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Appendix B UK Employment Structure 46B.1 UK Workforce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46B.2 UK Production & Agriculture Workforce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46B.3 UK Manufacturing Workforce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Appendix C UK Industrial Output by Region 48

Appendix D UK Budget 2019/20 49

Appendix E Data sources 50

Appendix F Information about EURIS 51

Appendix G Contact 52

4

Glossary

BCA British Cables Association

BCAS British Compressed Air Society

BEAMA British Electrical & Allied Manufacturers As-sociation

BFPA British Fluid Power Association

BPF British Plastics Federation

BPMA British Pump Manufacturers Association

CESA Catering Equipment Suppliers Association

CNY Chinese Yuan

CPI Consumer Price Index

CPIH Consumer Prices Index including owneroccupiers’ housing costs

EAMA Engineering and Machinery Alliance

ECB European Central Bank

EUR Euro

FEEM Group of 4 engineering industries repre-senting SIC codes 25 (Fabricated Metals),26 (Electronics), 27 (Electrical) and 28 (Me-chanical)

FETA Federation of Environmental Trade Associ-ation

FTSE 100 Index composed of the 100 largest compa-nies listed on the London Stock Exchange

G7 Group of seven countries consisting ofCanada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK& US

GAMBICA Trade Association for Instrumentation,Control, Automation and Laboratory Tech-nology

GDP Gross Domestic Product

HMRC HM Revenue & Customs

IOM Index of Manufacturing

IOP Index of Production

IOS Index of Services

LIA Lighting Industry Association

MAA Moving Annual Average

MAT Moving Annual Total

MTA The Manufacturing Technologies Associa-tion

MTD Month to date

NI Northern Ireland

NMI UK Electronic Systems & Technology In-dustry

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development

ONS Office for National Statistics

PPI Producer Price Index

REA The Renewable Energy Association

RMI Repairs, Maintenance & Infrastructure

ROW Rest of the World

RPI Retail Price Index

SIC Standard Industry Classification

SITC Standard International Trade Classification

USD US Dollar

YOY% Year on Year or Annual Percentage change

YTD Year to date

5

EURIS Brexit Watch January 2019 : Issue 20

1 Exchange Rates & Stock Market

Sterling average rate against US Dollar in January 2019 improved over December 2018,but remained below the same period a year earlier. The month-to-date rate was 1.5%above December 2018, 6.7% below January 2018 and 11.4% below May 2016 (pre-brexitvote).

Sterling also gained on Euro from previous month to finish at 1.1418/GBP at the end ofJanuary 2019. Themonth-to-date rate was 1.3% above December 2018, 0.3% below Jan-uary 2018 and 12.2% lower than May 2016 rate.

FTSE 100 annual growth hits 32-month low to finish at 6,969 at the end of week 5. Themonth-to-date average was 1.0% above December 2018, 10.8% below January 2018 but11.3% above May 2016.

[Gauge charts: Daily exchange rates and closing stock values since January 1999]

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2 GDP & Unemployment

The second estimate of the gross domestic product growth for Q3 2018 was unrevisedat 0.6%; equivalent to £510 billion and a growth of 1.5% compared to Q3 2017. Servicesrose by 1.7%, production rose by 0.7% and construction also rose by 2.0% in Q3 2018compared to Q3 2017. GDP has grown by 4.0% since Q2 2016.

The number of people in work increased by 328 thousand to 32.53 million in the threemonths to November 2018 compared to a year earlier. The number of people unem-ployed fell by 68 thousand to 1.37 million in the same period. Unemployment rate re-mained 45-year low at 4.0%.

[Gauge Charts: GDP = 4-quarter % change since Jan 2000, UMEMP = Unemployment rate since 2000 ]

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3 Producer Prices

Input prices for all manufacturing slowed down to 3.7% in December 2018; the lowest12-month growth since June 2016. The main drivers for the slowdown were crude oilprices. Notwithstanding, input prices has increased by 23.1% since May 2016.

Factory gate (Output) prices for all manufacturing in December 2018 fell by 0.3% fromprevious month but rose by by 2.5% compared to December 2017. The index has grownby 7.8% since May 2016.

[Gauge Charts: 12-month % change since Jan 2000, INPUT = Input price, OUPUT=Factory gate prices ]

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4 Consumer Prices

Consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% between November and December 2018 andalso rose by 2.4% compared to a year earlier. Growth in accommodation services andconsumer electronics were offset by fall in petrol prices and air fares. CPI has grown by6.2% since May 2016.

The retail price index (RPI) hits 23-month low at 2.7% in the twelve months to Decem-ber 2018, down from 3.2% in November 2018. RPI has grown by 9.0% since May 2016.

CPI including owner occupier’s cost (CPIH) rose by 2.0% in the twelve months to De-cember 2018, a slight drop from 2.1% recorded in November 2018. CPIH has grown by6.2% since May 2016.

[Gauge Charts: 12-month % change since Jan 2000; CPIH data starts from Jan 2005 ]

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5 Production & Services

The 12-month growth of index of production (IOP) in November 2018 fell fell by 1.5%;the lowest 12-month growth since August 2013. The decline was widespread across allsectors with electricity & gas supply declining the most on yearly basis. IOP has grownby 1.4% since May 2016.

Index of manufacturing (IOM) fell by 0.2% in November 2018 and also fell by 1.1% com-pared to twelve months earlier. It is the lowest 12-month growth since March 2016. IOMhas grown by 2.0% since May 2016.

Index of services (IOS) grew by 0.3% in November 2018 and also rose by 1.9% comparedto a 12months earlier. All sectors with exception of financial and insurance services grewin the year to November 2018. IOS has grown by 5.2% since May 2016.

[Gauge Charts: 12-month % change since Jan 2000 ]

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6 Construction

Construction output in November 2019 grew by 0.6% on previous month to £14 billion.Compared to November 2017 the output was 3.0% up. Construction output has grownby 12.4% since May 2016.

New construction work rose by 4.5% to £9.3 billion in the twelve months to November2018 but construction repairswas flat, growing by only 0.2% to £4.8 billion in the sameperiod.

[Gauge Charts: 4-quarter % change since Jan 2010, OUTPUT = Total Construction Output, NEWWORK = TotalConstruction NewWork, REPAIRS = Total Repairs, Maintenance and Infrastructure]

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7 Retail Sales

The volume of retail sales (including fuel) fell by 0.9% in December 2018 but rose by2.9% compared to twelve months earlier. Decline in all sectors except food stores werethe reasons for the 1-month fall.

The value of retail sales (including fuel) fell by 0.8% in December 2018 but rose by 4.9%compared to 12 months earlier. Retail sales value has grown by 11.6% since May 2016.

Internet retail sales accounted for 20.0% of all retail sales in December 2018; a growthof 13.9% compared to 12 months earlier.

[Gauge Charts: 12-month % change since Jan 2000; Internet sales data starts from Jan 2007]

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8 Business Investment

Business investment growth for all industries (INV), in volume terms, declined by 1.1%in Q3 2018 a slight revision from the preliminary -1.2%. The investment volume in Q3was equivalent to £46.9 billion, a declined by 1.8% compare to a year earlier. It was thelowest 4-quarter growth since Q1 2016 and has grown only by 0.6% since Q2 2016.

Investment in manufacturing industries (INV-MNF), in volume terms, rose by 4.5% inQ3 2018 but fell by 1.9% compared to Q3 2017. It is the first quarter on quarter growthafter two successive declines and has grown by 2.0% since Q2 2016.

[Gauge Charts: 4-quarter % change since 2007 ]

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9 UK Trade

9.1 Exports

The value of UK exports rose by 0.4% in November 2018 on previous month and alsorose by 2.9% compared to November 2017. Exports of goods rose by 5.5% to £ 30.1 bil-lion but exports of services fell by 0.3% to £ 23.8 billion in November 2018 compared totwelve months earlier.

The moving annual total of UK exports remained at £630 billion in November 2018, agrowth of 2.3% compared to the same period previous year. The total exports for thefirst eleven months of 2018 was £579 billion, also a growth of 2.3% on previous year.

[Gauge Charts: 12-month % change since Jan 2000]

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9.2 Imports

The value of UK imports remained unchanged in November 2018 from previous monthbut rose by 4.5% compared to 12 months earlier. Imports of goods in November 2018rose by 4.0% to 40.3 billion and imports of services also rose by 6.0% to £14.7 billion com-pared to twelve months earlier.

Themoving annual total of UK imports reached £659 billion, a growth of 2.4% comparedto the same period previous year. The total for the first eleven months of 2018 was £605billion, a growth of 2.4 on previous year.

[Gauge Charts: 12-month % change since Jan 2000]

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9.3 Goods Trade: Distribution

The total trade of goods in the first eleven months of 2018 was £ 790 billion, 0.6% lowerthan the same period a year earlier. Exports of goods accounted for 41.9% of the total,slightly lower than 42.9% recorded at the same period a year before.

The year-to-date value of goods trade with EU countries in 2018 was £404 billion, 1.0%lower than 2017. The year-to-date share of EU decreased to 51.2% in 2018 from 51.4%in 2017. For every £1.00 of goods exported to EU in 2018, UK imported an equivalent of£1.57 value of goods, down from £1.43 recorded in the same period in 2017.

Non-EU countries accounted £386 billion of trade between January and November2018; 0.5% lower than previous year. For every £1.00 of goods exported to Non-EUin 2018, UK imported an equivalent of £1.22 value of goods, slightly lower than £1.26recorded in same period in 2017.

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9.4 Goods Trade: Ranking by Region

9.4.1 Exports - 2018 Jan - Nov

9.4.2 Imports - 2018 Jan - Nov

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9.5 Goods Trade: Ranking by Country - Top 16

9.5.1 Exports - 2018 Jan - Nov

9.5.2 Imports - 2018 Jan - Nov

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9.6 Goods Trade: Growth Ranking by Country - Top 16

9.6.1 Exports Value Growth - 2018 Jan - Nov

9.6.2 Imports Value Growth - 2018 Jan - Nov

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9.7

GoodsTrade:

EU&Commonwea

lthbySITC

9.7.1

Exp

orts-2018

Jan-Nov

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9.7.2

Imports-2018

Jan-Nov

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10 Economy At a Glance

10.1 Growth: 12-month % growth

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10.2 Growth: 4-quarter % growth

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10.3 Growth Ranking: Since December 2017

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10.4 Growth Ranking: Since Referendum Vote

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11 Industry Level Indicators

11.1 Turnover - (November 2018)

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11.2 Exports - (November 2018)

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11.3 Index of Production - (November 2018)

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11.4 Employment - (September 2018)

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12 Growth Cycles

12.1 About Growth Cycles

Growth cycle, plots the annual growth of an indicator against the 1-month ( or 1-quarter)growth. This put the indicator in one of 4 main quadrants:

• Quadrant 1: increased compared to previous month (or quarter) and also increasedcompared previous year - expansion

• Quadrant 2: increased compared to previous month (or quarter) but decreased com-pared to previous year - recovery

• Quadrant 3: decreased compared to previous month (or quarter) and also decreasedcompared to previous year - contraction

• Quadrant 4: decreased compared to previous month (or quarter) but increased com-pared previous year - slowdown

4

Slowdown

1

Expansion

3

Contraction

2

Recovery

The direction or where an indicator is heading to is found by connecting indicator’s positionover a period of time. Majority of indicators have seasonal components which can some-times obscure the underlying trends. Using Moving Annual Total (MAT) helps to remove thisseasonality. Where MAT has been used instead of the actual indicator, the axis label is pre-ceded by the ’MAT’.

This section shows growth cycle plots of 11 selected indicators. The starting points aremarked with green circle ( ); purple circle ( ) for referendum date and orange circle ( ) forthe current state.

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12.2 Exchange Rate (USD)

12.3 Exchange Rate (Euro)

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12.4 FTSE 100 Index

12.5 OECD Composite Leading Indicator - UK

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12.6 Gross Domestic Product - GDP (ABMI-UKEA)

12.7 Unemployed Persons (MGSC)

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12.8 Exports - Value (IKBH)

12.9 Imports - Value (IKBI)

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12.10 Input Prices (K646)

12.11 Consumer Price Index (D7BT)

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12.12 Current State

Top: Indicators growth - Current week versus previous week.Bottom: Indicators Growth - Before Referendum vote versus current week

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13 G7 Indicators (Latest)

13.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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13.2 Unemployment & Wage Growth

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13.3 Inflation & Producer Prices

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13.4 Retail Sales

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13.5 Purchasers Managers Index - Manufacturing & Services

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13.6 Industrial Production & Manufacturing

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13.7 Debt

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13.8 Employer Social Security Rate & Corporate Tax

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Appendices

A UK Businesses: Activity, Size & Location

A.1 Enterprises by Employment Size Band

A.2 Enterprises by Turnover Size Band

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B UK Employment Structure

B.1 UKWorkforce

B.2 UK Production & Agriculture Workforce

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B.3

UKMan

ufacturingWorkforce

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CUKIndustrial

OutputbyReg

ion

Excludes

K(Finan

cial

&Insu

rance

Activities)

andO

(Public

Administration&Defen

ce)

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DUKBudget

2019

/20

(X%)=

Proportionex

pressed

asaperce

ntageofExp

enditure,(+Y%)=Growth

compared

topreviousye

arbudget

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E Data sources

• ONS

– Producer Prices : http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

– Consumer Prices: http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

– GDP:http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

– Retail Sales: http://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry

– Business Investment: http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

– Employment :http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket

– Production :http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy

– Exports :http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments

– Turnover:http://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade

– Annual Business Survey :https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade

– Construction: https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade

• HMRC

– UK Trade: https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/BuildYourOwnTables

• HM Treasury

– Budget: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-2017-documents

• ECB, OECD & Others

– Exchange rate: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exchange/eurofxref

– UK composite indicator: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx

– G7 Indicators : https://tradingeconomics.com/

– FTSE 100: https://uk.webfg.com/index/FTSE_100/prices/

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https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/k646

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/datasets/poundsdatatotalretailsales

http://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/businessinvestment/current/cxnv.csv

http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket

http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output

http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments

http://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/manufacturingandproductionindustry

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/datasets/uknonfinancialbusinesseconomyannualbusinesssurveyregionalresultssectionsas

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/BuildYourOwnTables/Pages/Table.aspx

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-2017-documents

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/index.en.html

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=MEI_CLI

https://tradingeconomics.com/

https://uk.webfg.com/index/FTSE_100/prices/


F Information about EURIS

EURIS is an advisory body for the potential impacts of the changing relationship betweenthe UK and EU for the UK Government, manufacturers and media. EURIS members areindustry trade associations covering companies across the manufacture of electrical,electronics, plastics, fabricated metals, renewables and mechanical engineering prod-ucts. It has a focus on product manufacturers covered by the Single Market and thesupporting regulations and standards.

For more information on EURIS, please visit http://www.euristaskforce.org.

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http://www.euristaskforce.org


G Contact

For further information on this report please contact:

Emmanuel Amoakohene

Head of StatisticsBEAMA LtdRotherwick House3 Thomas More StreetLondon E1W 1YZEngland

T: 020 7793 3000E: [email protected]

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mailto:[email protected]

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Biweekly BREXITWATCH Issue20 January2019€¦ · EuropeanUnionRelationship&IndustrialStrategy Biweekly BREXITWATCH Issue20 January2019 TaskforcerepresentingElectrical,Electronics,Mechanical,Plastics