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Bits, Atoms, Cells, Gears & JoulesThe Five Forces Driving the Next
Techno-Socio-Economic Revolution
August 2014 Jeff Wacker Principal Futurist JLWFutures
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
FRENZY
ERUPTION
Tec
hn
olo
gy
Dif
fus
ion
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Big Bang Crash Recovery and Transition
Professor Nickolai Kondratieff
(1892-1938)Excitement
Optimism
ThrillAnxiety
Denial
Fear
Desperation
Panic
Despondency
Hope
Relief
Optimism
Euphoria
Time
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
1771 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
CANAL PANIC 1797 (BRITAIN)
• Diffusion of manufacturing with water power• Full network of waterways (canals, rivers, oceans)• Development of public companies
CYCLE 1: INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 1771-1829
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
1829 STEAM & RAILWAYS RAILWAY PANIC 1847 (BRITAIN)
• Economies of scale• Joint stock companies• Repeal of tariff laws/free trade
CYCLE 2: STEAM AND RAILWAYS 1829-1875
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
1875 STEEL, ELECTRICITY& HEAVY ENGINEERING
GLOBAL COLLAPSES
OF THE 1890’S(ARGENTINA,
AUSTRALIA, U.S.)
• Transcontinental rail, steamships and telegraph• Gold standard, global finance
CYCLE 3: STEEL, ELECTRICITY & HEAVY ENGINEERING 1875-1908
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
1908 AUTOMOBILES, OIL& MASS PRODUCTION
GREAT CRASHOF 1929
(U.S.)
• Interstate/international highways and airways• Welfare state, Bretton Woods, IMF, World Bank
CYCLE 4: AUTOMOBILES, OIL & MASS PRODUCTION 1908-1966
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
1966 INFORMATION &TELECOMMUNICATIONS
NASDAQ CRASH 2000 &
GLOBAL COLLAPSES(ASIA, ARGENTINA,
U.S.)
• Global digital telecommunications network• Institutional framework, facilitating globalization
CYCLE 5: INFORMATION & TELECOMMUNICATIONS 1966~2016
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLESCYCLE 6: INFOTECH2, NANOTECH, BIOTECH, ROBOTECH, ENERTECH
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bioPrinted Organs
Fully augmented Species
DNA Computing
Synthetic BiologyDesigner LifeformsGM Foods
Regeneration
Cloning(Humans)
de-Extintion
BIOTECHNOLOGY
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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BIOTECHNOLOGY
Unintended ConsequencesMoral ethics
New bioWeapons
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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NANO TECHNOLOGY
Homogen
ous
Heterogenous
Nanites
Self-assembly of nanoelectronic components
Ultra-X
nanoReplication
nanoSensors
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NANO TECHNOLOGY
Glowing Report
Seek and Destroy
Power Pack
Tiny Turbine
Alien Invasion
Smart BombMedicine Cabinet
Cell Control
Potential toxicityBinary nanoWeapons
Raw materials AvailabilityGrey Goo
molecular manufacturing
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
Micro
MacroFossil Fuels
Renewable Sources
Alternative, Alternative Sources
Parasitic Power
Distributed Generation
nanoGenerators
Conservation
Conservation
Ultrapure Batteries
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
Unrestricted growthNew source for weapons
Moderate jobs outlook
Thermopower waves Traveling Wave
Nuclear Power
Multiferroic AlloyCopyright JLWFutures 2014
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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
Mobots
Immobots
Robot-built Robots
Process Automation
Modeling & Simulation
warbots
Expert SystemsTrue AI
serviceBots
factorybots
xxxBots
Non-humanoid form factors
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
Role of humans?New battlefields
Negative jobs outlook
Modeling & Simulation
ExpertSystems
Memristors & Neuromorphic Computing
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
Desensitivity to WarxRobot
“Terminator”Negative Jobs Outlook
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2
Self-assembly of nanoelectronic components
Computer-designed computers
Exponential IT
“Presence” interfaces
Overt
Ubiquitous IT
Mobile
Pervasive IT
Discrete
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2
Memristors & Neuromorphic Computing
Photonic Computing
2D to 3D Architectures
Quantum Computing
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2
Privacy!TMI
DependenceLoss of ControlCyber-Warfare
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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INCREASED CHALLENGES/OPPORTUNITY FROM:
• INFORMATION OVERLOAD
• SECURITY CONCERNS
• ENVIRONMENTAL DISRUPTIONS
• GLOBALIZATION
• GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS
• SUSTAINABILITY
• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
• ENERGY COSTS
• REGULATIONS
• RAPID SOCIAL SHIFTS
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
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Recommended Reading on these topicsAbundance: The Future is Better Than You Think*
- Peter Diamandis & Steven Kotler
Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology will Change Civilization- K. Eric Drexler
Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer and More Dangerous World - James D. Miller
Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy
- Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
The Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors, Data and the Future of Privacy- Robert
Scoble & Shel Israel
- Newt Gingrich
* Read this one if you’re only going to read one - JLW
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