53
1 Biofuels and sustainability issues – Opportunities for biomass production & conversion through a South- South agenda Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo – Brazil

Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

1

Biofuels and sustainability issues –Opportunities for biomass production & conversion through a South-

South agenda

Weber Amaral, PhDBrazilian Center for BiofuelsUniversity of Sao Paulo – Brazil

Page 2: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

2

Content

1. Brazilian Center for Biofuels – Polo Nacional de Biocombustiveis

2. Outlook scenarios for bioenergy

3. Global problems – regional solutions

4. Conclusions

Page 3: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

3

Brazilian Center for Biofuels`s background

Page 4: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

4

The roles and functions of the Brazilian Center for Biofuels:“ A Think Tank” @ the University of Sao Paulo

Contribution to:

•Innovation & Technology transfer: catalytic and network role

•Policy making

•Awareness raising and capacity building

•Strategic and applied research

•Mitigation of GHGs and carbon projects

Page 5: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

5

Page 6: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

6

Global and larger frameworks supporting biofuels deployment

Oil consumption and prices: a security issue

IPCCC and Stern report – environmental and economic impacts of GHGs

USA – goals of reducing 20% gasoline consumption in 10 years

EU - Directive 2003/30/EC & Biofuels Vision 2030

Kyoto targets and voluntary commitments

Cost effective substitution and future technologies available….

Competitive prices and being renewable

Key biofuels drivers

Page 7: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

7

Biofuels and energy security issues

Page 8: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

8

Page 9: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

9

Who is willing to pay?Price differences

The externalities of biofuelsneed to be properly

determined

Page 10: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

10

Page 11: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

11

According to a new FAO report, The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO), the impact of commodity price fluctuations is greatest in the poorest countries of the developing world. "An estimated 2.5 billion people in the developing world depend on agriculture for their livelihoods," SOCO points out.

X

The debate

Page 12: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

12

Energy demand in rural areas: still a problem to solve.....

Page 13: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

13

Page 14: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

14

Page 15: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

15

Page 16: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

16

Roles andfunctions

of government,private sector and

NGOs

Gasoline/DieselQuerosene

Food

Ethanol& biodiesel

Jobs

WindEnergydemand

GHGs

Nuclear

Oil reserves

Economic growth

+-

System dynamics and their multiple interactions

Hydro

Hydrogen

Trends inconsumption

Global awareness

Environmentaltaxes & policies

Energysupply Land use

patternsNative

vegetation and forests

Quality of jobs

Diversification Biodiversity

Climatechange

Foodsafety

Quality of lifeand

livelihoods

-

+

+

+

+

+-

+

+

+

+

+

+ +

+ ++

+

-

-

-

+

+

+++

-

2. Understanding key drivers of energy supply and demand

Page 17: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

17

The supply hypothesis

Page 18: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

18

The impact on prices hypothesis

Page 19: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

19Source: Garten Rothkopf

The increased use of biofuels have implications in social, economical and environmental variables

Projected investments in renewable energy and biofuels

Page 20: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

20

Brazilian structural factors leading to a competitive bionergy business

• At least two biofuels of global relevance – ethanol and biodiesel

• And one more under-developed potential: biogas

• Strong forestry sector

• Competitive production costs versus oil

• Potential for the development of co-products – oil chemistry and

ethanol chemistry

• No IPRs barriers for innovation until recently…

• Early stages of policy development – creation of global markets

for biofuels

• Long tradition in ethanol and sugar, although just two groups went

public (IPO)

3. Global problems – regional solutions

Page 21: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

21

The Brazilian economy is diversified and a number of sectors have built important competitive advantages

Diversified economic sectors

• Banking: Brazilian bank are considered one of the most competitive in the world in terms of productivity and use of technology

• Aerospace. Embraer is the 3rd largest airplane manufacturer in the world, leader in regional airplanes.

• Automotive: Most of the global OEMs are present in Brazil. Leaders are GM,Fiat, VW, Ford, Mercedes and Toyota. 2nd largest producer of busses

• Telecom: one of the most competitive markets in the world. It was deregulated considering total competition in local and long distance. Large European and

American operators came in the privatization.

• Petroleum. ADRs represent about 17% of the US Capital Market. Petrobras’ is the most traded one. The company is the leader in deep water oil extraction,

• Energy. One of a few contries self-sufficient in energy. Most of our eletricenergy comes from hydro plants and we can still double our capacity. 77% of

the cars produced in Brazil are flexfuel (etanol or gasoline)

• Agribusiness: world largest exporter of beef, soybeans, chicken, etanol, sugar, orange juice, coffee. Leader position as well in pulp and paper, granite, fruits

etc.

• Mining/Steel. CVRD is the largest iron ore producer in the world, and many of the steel producers are world class and lowest cost

• Heavy construction: Some Brazilian companies are becoming global players in the US, Middle East, Europe, Africa and Latin America (Odebrecht and OAS

10%

40%

50%Services

Industry

Agriculture

GDP(PPP$B)

1,577

Page 22: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

22

Source: FAO, 2007

Page 23: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

23

Credits of Credits of

CarbonCarbon

5,4 million ha

72 thousand growers

334 mills & destillaries

(Operation & projects)Harvest

380 million tons

ETHANOL14 billion liters

SUGAR24 million tons

BAGASSE

BioplasticBioplastic

Ethanol

Food

PharmacyLisine

Derived

Sugar cane value chain

Page 24: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

24

3 m

2 m

1 m

0 m

1 m

2 m

3 m

4 m

Energy factory

• 1/3 sugar1/3 fibre1/3 leaves

• 1ha = 9.000 l ethanol - 65 b of oil• 6.5 MM ha = 490 MM barrels oil

• 6.5 MM ha sugar uptake+ 25% emissions from fossil fuels in Brazil.

SugarCane

In Brazil

Page 25: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

25

There is significant room for new technologies development –2nd generation of biofuels

Page 26: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

26

Profitability of biofuels depends on:

Cost of feedstocks for production process

Policy frameworks and incentives/subsidies

Improved technologies

Oil prices….

Page 27: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

27

Can we all live without subsidies?

Source: Global Subsidies Initiative

Page 28: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

28

Page 29: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

29

FOOD ENERGY

FOOD BIOENERGYFORESTS

•• INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS: INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS: foodfood & & fuelfuel

•• SUSTAINABLE USE OF LAND AND LANDSCAPESSUSTAINABLE USE OF LAND AND LANDSCAPES

•• ADDED VALUE OF BIOENERGY MATERIALSADDED VALUE OF BIOENERGY MATERIALS

•• INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURE/FORESTSINTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURE/FORESTS

•• DIVERSIFYING THE PORTFOLIO OF DIVERSIFYING THE PORTFOLIO OF FARMERFARMER´́SS OPTIONSOPTIONS

An land use approach:

Page 30: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

30

From resources to markets – opportunities

Page 31: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

31

From resources to markets – opportunities

Page 32: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

32

Brazil uses aprox. 58 million ha as agricultural land

Source: IBGE 2004

Page 33: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

Second generation of biofuels and biorefinaries: an example from the forestry sector

Optimizing the use of biomass

Page 34: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

34

AFSenergetics

Soya

castor oil

sunflower

cotton

Oil seed

crops

chipsdebarking

chiping

energy

bark

pulping

pulp

paperbiodiesel

wood

BIOREFINERY –An approach for the forestry, pulp and paper industry

ethanol

methanol

extractionhemicelluloses

carbohydrates

fermentation

black liquor

destilation

Page 35: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

35

Diverisityofpotentialcrops

Page 36: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

36

BIODIESEL:

Potencial capacity of different cropsNE

Castor oil / Soya /

Palm oil / Cotton

SE

Peanuts/ Sunflower / Castor oil / Soya /

Cotton

CWSoya / Castor oil /

Cotton / Sun flower

SouthSoya / Cotton / Sun flower / Rape

seed

North

Palm oil

Biodiesel production and the supply year-round of these crops

Page 37: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

37

Page 38: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

38

Potential feedstocks for biodiesel - Brazil

Time for

deployment

Volume

small

medium

large

Short Medium Long

soy bean

animal fat

Jatropha native palm

species

cotton seeds

Peanuts

dairy by-products

palm oil,

sun flower

canola

castor oil

Page 39: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

39

There is significant room for new technologies development –2nd generation of biofuels – making the necessary bridges with raw materials

Page 40: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

40

Exploring already current synergies among different areas:the need to make the necessary bridges among them

•Agriculture

•Industry

•Policies

•Frameworks for innovation, investment and mainstreaming

Page 41: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

41

Agriculture technology and current genetic materials

Candidate genes and traits: the roles for GM sugar cane

•Water deficit

•Max. productivity potential – with irrigation

•Longer management cycles

•Sugar and fiber content & new allometric models

Page 42: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

Sources: IBGE & CTC

Atlantic

Rain Forest

Sugar Cane

Pantanal

AMAZON RAIN FOREST

New New

expansion expansion

areas for areas for

sugar cane sugar cane

growinggrowing

Page 43: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

43

Quantitative approach –

How “green” are

these multiple options?

Collaboration:

Exploring the links

between

Bioenergy & GHGs

Page 44: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

44

Well-to-wheel GHG emission reduction potential

Source: IEA/OECD 2006

Sugar cane ethanol is the best solution for GHG emission reduction

Page 45: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

45

Helping Latin America countries to help ourselves

Page 46: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

46

Policies and enabling environment

Sectoral policies affecting biofuels

•Energy

•Transport

•Agriculture

•Environment

•Conservation of biodiversity

•Economics

•etc

Page 47: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

47

Does size matters for efficiency

and cost-effectiveness?

Page 48: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

48

Page 49: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

49

Some issues to consider....

Criteria & Indicators - Certification

Page 50: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

50

Bioenergy and attraction of capital for innovation

Business

pipeline

Universities

AcademiaAcademia PrivatePrivate GovernmentGovernment

Foundations

Innovation agencies

Innovation centers

R&D

Agencies

Incubators

Tech parks

International exchange

•Internationalpartners

•Advisors•Partners’ networks

•Media•Business partners

•Seminars

Page 51: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

51

Critical issues to be addressed: the need for aninterdisciplinary approach

•Contribution of solid research to the process of making sound decisions: deploying the full potential of bioenergy sources and feedstocks

•Awareness raising and capacity building – costumer acceptance and potential benefits of biotechnology – making the bridge to the second generation of biofuels

•Enabling environment - necessary links among players: Government – Industry and Academia – entrepreneurship and innovation

•Quantitative and reliable information on their benefits – from carbon and energy balances & supported by outlook studies – need for a global assessment approach

Page 52: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

52

To better understand some of these complex issues – we can´tafford not to have…

Concentration and concerted efforts: focus and scale

Continuity: 30 years of investments worthwhile – the Brazil case

Complementarity: bioenergy sources and expertise – need for an interdisciplinary approach

Commitment: to make a change

Coordination

Page 53: Biofuelsand sustainability issuesintranet2.minem.gob.pe/web/archivos/ogp/GVEP/11 Amaral Weber.pdf · Weber Amaral, PhD Brazilian Center for Biofuels University of Sao Paulo –Brazil

53

Thanks to

Government of Peru

CEPAL

BCB researchers:

MAPA

USP

www.polobio.esalq.usp.br

[email protected]