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Driving Towards Sustainable Mobility

Biofuels: The Technologies, Challenges, and

Opportunities (US Experiences)

Dr. Candace WheelerGM Technical Fellow

Global Energy Systems Intelligence Center

General Motors

1

Today● 820 M vehicles

● 7 B people

● 12% ownership rate

2020● >1B vehicles

● 8 B people

● 15% ownership rate

Need for Energy Diversity

and Advanced Biofuels

96% of Today’s Vehicles Are

Dependent on Petroleum

2

SustainableSupply

CO2 Urbanization

The Challenge is Growing Sustainably

3

GM Strategy: Displace Petroleum

Through Energy Efficiency & Diversity

Improve

Vehicle

Fuel Economy

and

Emissions

Displace

Petroleum

Energy

Diversity

Hydrogen Fuel Cell-Electric

Vehicles

Battery-ElectricVehicles (including

EREV)Hybrid-ElectricVehicles (including

Plug-in HEV)

IC Engineand Transmission

Improvements

Petroleum (Conventional and Alternative Sources)

Alternative Fuels (Ethanol, Biodiesel, CNG, LPG)

Electricity (Conv. and Alternative Sources)

Hydrogen

Time

Advanced Propulsion Technology StrategyPromote and execute a “Blended Energy Carrier Strategy” that incorporates

the use of liquid fuels, CNG, electricity, and hydrogen

Implement advanced propulsion technologies that

optimize fuel efficiency and minimize emissions

Accelerate the use of clean,

renewable, low-carbon fuels

Support the

electrification of

the vehicle

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GM’s Commitment to Biofuels

Is about offering our customers a choice and the ability to fuel their vehicles with

A low cost, renewable, sustainable, domestically produced alternatives to petroleum

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Global Demand for Oil Is Expected to Grow

30% 2010 - 2030

Population growth will continue with the most growth coming from Asia and developing countries

India and China have 38% of the world’s population but use only 2 barrels of oil per person per year

● In comparison, the US uses 15, Europe 12, and Brazil 9

● Increasing from 2 to 3 would require 10M more barrels per day

Greatest growth seen in diesel fraction – total gasoline demand will be stable

All technologies and energy sources including biofuels will be needed to meet the rising energy demand

Middle distillate demand to nearly double by 2030

Global Petroleum Product Demand

Reference: Hart Energy

Net Dependency on Imported Oil and Gas in

Selected Countries – 2010 to 2035

Reference: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012

● US will see a sharp decrease in oil imports and has the potential to

become a net exporter of natural gas

● China, India, and EU will dramtically increase both oil and gas imports

(China is expected to increase oil imports 60% and double gas imports)

● Japan expected to be ~100% dependent on imported oil and gas

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US Renewable Fuels Standard is Major Biofuels Policy Driver

Bil

lio

ns

of

Ga

llo

ns

Prior RFS1

2012 and 2013

Requirements

(billions gals)

Draft Rule

2012

2013

Final Rule

2012

2013

proposed

Cellulosic

Biofuel

0.5

1.0

0.00865

0.014

Biomass-

based Diesel

1

1.0

1.0

1.28

Total

Advanced

2

2.75

2

2.75

Conventional 13.2

13.8

13.2

13.8

2007 Energy Independence and Security

Act Renewable Fuels Standard

Goal is to provide 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel in 2022

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HOW DO WE GET THERE?

A Variety of Feedstocks Are Being Used

Switchgrass

Municipal

Solid Waste

Bagasse

(Sugar Cane

Residue)

Corn

Stover

Wood

Chips

Wheat

Straw

Forest

Waste

Corn

Cobs

Poplar Trees

(Fast Growing

Woody Biomass)

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Improving technology is accelerating growth in yields

Average corn yields have increased 5-6 fold in the

U.S. since 1940

EPA has modeled 230 bushels/acre for 2022

Many predict yields over 300 bushels/acre

Corn Yields Have Grown

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Low Cost Biomass Will Be Critical to Future Energy Production Regardless of Fuel Carrier – Powertrain System

Biomass is a feedstock for chemicals, electricity, and natural gas - not just liquid fuels

It is essential to successfully grow energy crops at large scale

Biotechnology improvements and agronomics are both key to improving yields

BIOMASS

Thermo-chemical

LIQUID FUELS

Bio-chemical

NATURAL GAS

Anaerobic

Digestion

ELECTRICITY

Co-fired or

Thermo-chemical

FINE CHEMICALS

Bio-chemical

• Switchgrass

• High-Biomass Sorghum

• Miscanthus

• Energycane

• Short-RotationWoody Crops

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Challenge: How Do You Put Low Cost

Biomass in Your Car?

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Bio

fuels

And we have only just begun …

Corn (Starches)

Sugarcane

Oil seeds

1st Generation

Current Tech2nd Gen

1 - 5 Years*

3rd Gen

3 - 7 Years*

4th Gen

5-10 Years*

“Gen 1.5”

0 - 3 Years*

Cassava

Sweet Sorghum Energy Cane

Waste

Grasses, Wood

Algae

Microbes convert CO2 directly to fuel

Jatropha

Green Gasoline

Renewable Diesel

Sunlight and

CO2

Cellulosic Bioethanol

Algae

Synthetic Biorefinery

Gasification

Direct Synthesis?

Cassava

Corn

Biofuels Technology Roadmap

*First commercial-scale plants

Technology maturity expected 2020-2030 for 2nd–4th Gen respectively

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Biofuel Study: What Fuels, What Cost, When

DistributionConversionStorage and TransportFeedstock

Project takes a complete value-chain approach to future large-scale

biofuels

Types of questions addressed:What fuels do we expect to see coming on-line – when, where, and at what volumes?

What are the technologies involved and examples of the leading companies?

Are these fuels cost competitive with petroleum fuels and what would make this happen?

What are the costs today and projected costs for 1st and nth plants?

What are the advantages and challenges associated with each fuel type?

What are the impacts on infrastructure?

What does this mean for GM’s energy diversification strategy, and current portfolio plan?

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Current View on Bio-fuels: The Good News Biofuels are “real” and will continue to grow

● Multiple drivers – energy security, national security, balance of trade, increasing oil demand, jobs, carbon and GHG reduction

● Biofuels can be produced sustainably and cost competitively with crude oil at $70-$90/barrel

Sufficient feedstock exists or can be developed to sustainably supply a significant portion of our liquid fuel needs

Future biofuels will look very different from what they do now

● Involve multiple fuel types and pathways to make those fuels (no boutique fuels)

● Fuels will differ by feedstock and by region (domestically and internationally)

Many technologies starting from starches and sugars until cellulosic sugars are available – low cost sugars are the holy grail

● Cellulose feedstocks add complexity and risk

● More emphasis on drop-ins (pyrolysis oil, algal crude, other hydrocarbons)

● All technologies will be needed to meet rising global energy demand

A host of new innovative technologies are under development at the lab-bench scale (solar fuels, electrofuels, etc.)

Ethanol will continue to be the predominate alternative transportation fuel in the coming 10 years

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Current View of Biofuels: Uncertainties

Initial focus has shifted to higher value bio-chemicals for cosmetic, nutraceutical and pharmaceutical applications – fuels not first commercialization effort

Logistics is a weak link in the chain (includes pretreatment)

The time to large-volume, commercial scale has been delayed, but we see promising movement in that direction

● Many at demo scale with some building 1st commercial plant

● Investment funding biggest hurdle

● Using IPOs to raise money for initial plants

● Infrastructure development is critical and infrastructure compatible fuels have a competitive advantage

Policy is a key driver but remains uncertain● RFS2 mandates adjusted annually and under review

● Cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel subsidies extended through 2013

● Biofuels will continue on a growth path, but slow growth in advanced biofuels are

causing some countries to adjust requirements

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Greatest Challenges/Issues over the Last Year Impact of US Drought

● The total US corn crop was reduced ~13% from 2011

● The ethanol industry responded by reducing production and exports

● EPA A denied a request to wave the RFS2 citing flexibility in meeting RFS

requirements

Blend Wall Reached with E10● Ethanol will continue to be the predominant alternative transportation fuel for

next 10 years

● Requirement to blend 13.8 B gallons exceeds 10% of total gasoline demand

requires more use of E85 or mid-level blends, etc.

Abundance of Natural Gas● Growing volumes of natural gas and low prices could impact the transportation

sector for both light duty and heavy duty vehicles

Policy Uncertainty● Will the recent extensions of the biodiesel and cellulosic biofuel credits be

renewed past 2013?

● What are the likely RFS2 required volumes beyond 2013?

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The next 2-3 years will prove critical for advanced biofuels as pilot/demo plants become operational and first commercial plants are constructed

It is likely that we will see multiple fuels (and the pathways to make those fuels) emerge over the next several years - both ethanol and renewable hydrocarbons

The only practical means of achieving the 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target is through a very efficient vehicle coupled with a low carbon fuel

Summary

GM believes biofuels, including ethanol, are the most significant

near-term solution to reducing petroleum usage and greenhouse

gas emissions

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Gas-Friendly to Gas-Free

Thank You for Your Attention

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Back-up

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2012 Global Corn Crop Was Down 2.8% from

2011 but Still the Second Largest in History

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Corn Yields are Increasing Globally as

Technology Advances

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Food Inflation Is Expected to Remain Close to

Historical Averages in 2012 and 2013

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INEOS Bio

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Mascoma

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Tank-to-Wheels

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Well to Wheels GHG Vary Widely among

Energy Resource and Propulsion Pathways