Bioenergy and Earth Sustainability:Session on Scenarios: Ideas for integrating

Günther Fischer, Land Use Change and Agriculture ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

1st WorkshopESSP Bioenergy

Piracicaba, Brazil19-21 July, 2008

• Agriculture plays a fundamental, dual role in global change with a strong linkage to energy futures.

• Agriculture has raised wide concerns as a key human sector and its exposure to and dependence on climate change over the coming decades.

• Agriculture is a major user and significant producer of energy.

• It is a major source and sink of greenhouse gases via land use changes, land management and livestock production.

• Fuel production on agricultural land may compete with food production.

• Ultimately, farmers will have to adapt and mitigate at the same time.

Development Development –– Climate Change Climate Change –– Land UseLand Use

Development

scenario

Ecological-Economic Analysis

Climate impactresponse relations

Production Demand

TradeGlobal Food

System

World Market

Climatemodel

1122

33

44

55

66

•• FAO and IIASAFAO and IIASA have developed a spatial analysis systemspatial analysis system that enables rational landrational land--use planninguse planning on the basis of an inventory of land resources and evaluation of biophysical limitations and production potentials of land.

• The AEZ methodologyAEZ methodology follows an environmental approach; it provides a standardized frameworkstandardized framework for analyzing synergies and trade-offs of alternative uses of agroalternative uses of agro--resourcesresources (land, water, technology) for producing food and energy, while preserving preserving environmental quality.environmental quality.

Current LUC projects:Current LUC projects:Global Agricultural Zones Assessment (GAEZ 2007)Global Agricultural Zones Assessment (GAEZ 2007)Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD)Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD)Exploiting Information on Global Environmental Risks Exploiting Information on Global Environmental Risks ––Agriculture (EIGERAgriculture (EIGER--Agri)Agri)

Land Resources & AgroLand Resources & Agro--ecological Zoning:ecological Zoning:

Note: calibration of GLC2000 class weights starts from estimated reference weights and is based on an iterative scheme to match national / sub-national statistics of year 2000 (FAO AT2015/2030 adjusted cultivated land).

Not present< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%Water

Spatial Distribution and Intensity (percent) Spatial Distribution and Intensity (percent) of Cultivated Land, year 2000of Cultivated Land, year 2000

3.9

3.10

Suitability of rain-fed cereals, reference climate 1961-90.

Normalized difference index, suitability of rain-fed cereals, HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s.

• Irrigated area has expanded to over 270 million ha worldwide, about 18% of total cultivated land. Agriculture is the largest user of waterAgriculture is the largest user of water among human activities: irrigation water withdrawals are 70% of the total anthropogenic use of renewable water resources.

• Agriculture is in competition with other water userscompetition with other water usersand has impacted negatively on the environment.impacted negatively on the environment.

Current LUC projects:Current LUC projects:Water and Global Change ( )Water and Global Change ( )Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighboring Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighboring States (SCENES)States (SCENES)

Water and Agriculture:Water and Agriculture:

Global Map of Irrigated AreasGlobal Map of Irrigated Areas

Source: GMIA ver 4, FAO/University of Frankfurt (2007)

0< 0.10.1 - 11 - 55 - 1010 - 2020 - 3535 - 5050 - 75> 75

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

NAMWEUPAO

FSU+EEMDCAFRLAMCPASASPASLDC

WORLD

Irrigation (mm per year)

A2refClimateSeason

Impacts of climate change on regionalImpacts of climate change on regionalnet irrigation water requirements in 2080net irrigation water requirements in 2080

271 million ha irrigated out of total 1540 million ha cultivated (~ 18 %).Agriculture uses 2630 billion m3 out of 3816 billion m3 annual water withdrawals (~ 70%).On average, annual global crop water deficit is 500 mm (i.e., 1350 billion m3 in 2000); about 970 mm water per irrigated hectare were applied.

HADCM3 A2

Impacts of climate change on regionalImpacts of climate change on regionalnet irrigation water requirements in 2080net irrigation water requirements in 2080

271 million ha irrigated out of total 1540 million ha cultivated (~ 18 %).Agriculture uses 2630 billion m3 out of 3816 billion m3 annual water withdrawals (~ 70%).On average, annual global crop water deficit is 500 mm (i.e., 1350 billion m3 in 2000); about 970 mm water per irrigated hectare were applied.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

NAMWEUPAO

FSU+EEMDCAFRLAMCPASASPASLDC

WORLD

Irrigation (mm per year)

A2refClimateSeason

HADCM3 A2

Mexico: Climate Change Impacts (% change) Mexico: Climate Change Impacts (% change) on Indicators of Agricultural Water Use on Indicators of Agricultural Water Use –– 20802080

Note: percent change relative to respective reference projection without climate change. Crop water requirements calculated as crop-specific potential evapotranspiration (plus special allowance for paddy).

6.3 million ha irrigated out of total 27.3 million ha cultivated (~ 23 %)Agriculture uses 60.3 billion m3 out of 78.2 billion m3 annual water withdrawals (> 75%)On average, annually about 1000 mm water per irrigated hectare applied

Precipitation Crop Water Crop Water Internal WaterRequirements Deficits Resources

H3A2 -4.8 12.5 17.3 -28.1CSA2 -2.5 8.1 14.1 -12.1C2A2 -10.9 8.4 18.1 -19.4NCA2 -3.7 4.4 8.5 -13.9EHA2 -0.9 8.5 16.5 -8.4

H3B1 -8.7 8.9 16.5 -25.8CSB1 -0.8 6.5 11.1 -7.7

Message 1:Message 1:While atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land, climate change, if not halted, will have a clearly negative impact in the second half of this century.

Impacts of climate change on increasing net irrigation water demand could be as large as changes projected due to socio-economic development in 2000-2080 (~400 Gm3 vs ~600 Gm3, compared to 1350 Gm3 in 2000).

COUNTRY A

WORLD MARKETS

International pricesto satisfy:• commodity balances• financial transfer balance

COUNTRY B

COUNTRY ECOUNTRY DCOUNTRY C

EXCHANGEEQUILIBRIUM

Prices, consumption, stocks, netexports to satisfy:

• Budget constraint• Market clearance• Trade balance• Trade quota

GOVERNMENT POLICIESTarget price, tariffs, taxes, quota, etc.

PRODUCTIONNon-agriculture

productionAgricultureproduction

Production inputs:• Land • Fertilizer• Labour • Others• Capital

International commodity prices PW Net trade EA

PW

PWPWPW

EC ED EE

EB

The International Linkage The International Linkage in the World Food System in the World Food System

ModelModel18 national models,2 country-group models,14 regional models

Commodities: wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine & ovine meat, dairy products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture, non-agriculture.

Linkage: trade, world market prices and financial flows

Food and Agriculture Outlook

Source: LUC World food system simulations of GGI scenarios, IIASA (2005).

1. Cereal production, scenario A2r,2000 to 2080

2. Pork & poultry production, scenario A2r,2000 to 2080

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

mill

ion

tons

LDCsMDCs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

mill

ion

tons

pro

tein

LDCsMDCs

Source: World Food System simulations of IIASA GGI scenarios, Fischer et al. (2005).

Food and Agriculture Outlook

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Inde

x (2

000

= 10

0)

LDCsMDCs

Growth of: 2000-2050

Arable land 12%

Cereal production 69%

Ruminant meat 73%

Other meat 85%

Agriculture 86%

Index of agricultural production, IIASA A2r scenario, 2000-2080

75%

13%

12%

Sources of growth in agricultural production, Scenario A2r, 2000-2050

Arable land expansion

Increases in cropping intensity

Yield increases

Inte

nsifi

catio

n

Source:World Food System simulations of IIASA GGI scenarios, Fischer et al. (2005).

Food and Agriculture Outlook

75%

13%

12%

Sources of growth in agricultural production, 2000-2050

Arable land expansion

Increases in cropping intensity

Yield increases

Inte

nsifi

catio

n

Growth 2000-2050 Scenario B1 Scenario A2rArable land 7% 12%Cereal production 62% 69%Ruminant meat 68% 73%Other meat 74% 85%Agriculture 81% 86%

76%

15%7%Arable land expansion

Increases in cropping intensity

Yield increases

Source: LUC World food system simulations of GGI scenarios, IIASA (2005).

3. Total agricultural production, revised A2r scenario,2000 to 2080

4. Cultivated land, projected for different socioeconomic path-ways, 1990 to 20801500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

mln

Ha A2r

B2B1

Food and Agriculture Outlook

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Inde

x (2

000

= 10

0)

LDCsMDCs

18/6

0.006.2512.5018.7525.0031.2537.5043.7550.0056.2562.5068.7575.0081.2587.5093.75100.00

0.006.2512.5018.7525.0031.2537.5043.7550.0056.2562.5068.7575.0081.2587.5093.75100.00

2000

2080

Percent of cultivated land in grid cell, scenario A2, 2000

Percent of cultivated land in grid cell, scenario A2, 2080

2000 TOTAL CROP FOREST GRASS BUILT NONVEG WATERNAM 1911 231 620 660 15 262 123WEU 666 113 145 175 13 201 19PAO 838 56 129 516 3 128 6EEU 117 46 36 30 4 0 1FSU 2193 215 844 715 10 372 38CPA 1186 157 227 404 29 360 9SAS 502 212 81 86 28 88 8PAS 452 89 233 107 10 0 13MEA 1317 65 21 187 8 1032 5LAM 2059 172 957 767 13 113 37AFR 2206 209 513 987 21 446 30WORLD 13448 1567 3805 4634 154 3001 2882050 TOTAL CROP FOREST GRASS BUILT NONVEG WATERNAM 1911 237 606 666 18 262 123WEU 666 102 144 187 14 201 19PAO 838 58 127 515 4 128 6EEU 117 45 35 32 4 0 1FSU 2193 210 836 726 11 372 38CPA 1186 154 242 387 36 358 9SAS 502 222 76 65 48 86 6PAS 452 107 177 141 15 0 13MEA 1317 84 20 164 16 1028 5LAM 2059 242 797 849 21 113 37AFR 2206 291 438 956 46 445 30WORLD 13448 1751 3497 4688 233 2993 286

Major land use by region, scenario A2r, year 2000 and 2050

Source: IIASA-GGI, 2008

Source: IIASA-GGI, 2008

Net changes of major land uses in LDC regions,Scenario A2r, 2000 to 2050

REGION TOTAL CROP FOR GRASS BUILT BARE WATERCPA 0 -4 15 -17 8 -2 0SAS 0 9 -5 -21 20 -1 -2PAS 0 17 -56 35 5 0 0MEA 0 19 -1 -23 9 -4 0LAM 0 70 -160 82 8 0 0AFR 0 82 -75 -31 25 -1 0WORLD 0 193 -282 25 73 -8 -2

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on World Crop Prices World Crop Prices –– 2080s2080s

Note: percent changes relative to A2r reference projection without climate change. The diagram is based on food system simulations using climate projections obtained from HadCM3 and CSIRO climate models for the IPCC SRES B1, B2, A2 and A1FI emissions scenario.

02468

101214161820

300 400 500 600 700 800 900

CO2 (ppmv)

% c

hang

e

HadCM3CSIRO

• The role of bio-energy has been strongly enhanced by its consideration in the climate changeclimate change debate, as well as opportunities it may create for rural developmentrural development and improved energy securityenergy security.

•• Land use competitionLand use competition with food and feed production is considered a potential key barrierkey barrier to exploiting the bio-energy production potential.

Current LUC projects:Current LUC projects:Global Assessment of BioGlobal Assessment of Bio--energy Potentialsenergy PotentialsRenewable Fuels for a Sustainable Europe (REFUEL)Renewable Fuels for a Sustainable Europe (REFUEL)Effective and LowEffective and Low--disturbing Biodisturbing Bio--fuel Policies (ELOBIO)fuel Policies (ELOBIO)

BioBio--energy Production & Food Security & energy Production & Food Security & Land Competition:Land Competition:

pprmpp n

food

i

raw

i

food

i⋅+=

cpprmpp e

in

energy

i

raw

i

energy

i⋅⋅+= )(

pprmprmcpp n

energy

i

food

i

e

i

energy

i

food

i⋅−+= )/ (

Retail food price:

Retail energy price:

Ceiling on (long-term) food prices:

As the energy market is much bigger than agricultural market and assuming that markets are well integrated, substitution will take place on demand and supply side, etc., energy demand creates a floor and ceiling price:

Price Transmission: Energy to AgriculturePrice Transmission: Energy to Agriculture

Feedstock groups:Feedstock groups:•• Oil cropsOil crops

Rapeseed; Sunflower; Soybean; Oilpalm•• Sugar cropsSugar crops

Sugarcane; Sugar beet; Sweet sorghum•• Starch cropsStarch crops

Wheat; Rye; Triticale; Maize; Sorghum•• Herbaceous lignocellulosic plantsHerbaceous lignocellulosic plants

Miscanthus; Switch grass; Reed canary grass•• Woody lignocellulosic plantsWoody lignocellulosic plants

Poplar; Willow; Eucalyptus

BioBio--fuel fuel FeedstocksFeedstocks

0,007,9815,9723,9531,9439,9247,9155,8963,8871,8679,8487,8395,81103,80111,78119,77127,75

0,0012,5025,0037,5050,0062,5075,0087,50100,00112,50125,00137,50150,00162,50175,00187,50200,00

Bio-fuel Feedstock Yield Potential(a) Attainable energy yields of (1st generation)

starch crops, sugar crops and oil crops(GJ/ha, biofuel equiv.)

(b) Attainable energy yields of (2nd generation) woody and herbaceous lignocellulosic

feedstocks (GJ/ha, biofuel equiv.)

Source: Land Use Change and Agriculture Program, 2007

GHG Reduction and Environmental ImpactsGHG Reduction and Environmental Impacts

Message 2:Message 2:Most conventional agricultural feedstocks perform inadequately for environmental criteria, especially if cultivation leads to additional conversion of grassland or forest.Second generation lignocellulosic technologies (also recycling and using wastes) hold a promise of doing much better (both landuse efficiency and GHG savings).A substantial contribution of agricultural biomass to energy sources would require:(a) Focus on sustainable production increases on current agricultural land (beyond BAU);(b) Tapping into resources currently not or only extensively used.

Global Use of Global Use of Arable Land, Arable Land,

year 2000year 2000Land in consumption World

mln haCrops (excl feed) 1005.4Cereals 536.9Other crops 468.5

Feed use 514.1Cereals 214.2Other crops 94.4Fodder crops 205.5

of whichRuminants 307.7Other livestock 206.4

48%

24%

28%

CerealsOther cropsFodder crops

51%46%

3%

CerealsOther cropsFodder crops

MDCs:619 mln ha

LDCs:900 mln ha

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

Total land ...Total land ...

Not present< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%Water

Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use.

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

... subtracting cultivated land... subtracting cultivated land

Not present< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%Water

Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use.

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

... subtracting forest areas... subtracting forest areas

Not present< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%Water

Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use.

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

... excluding non... excluding non--vegetated vegetated areasareas

Not present< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%Water

Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use.

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

... excluding protected areas... excluding protected areas

Undefined< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%WaterProtected

Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use.

... excluding climatically ... excluding climatically unsuitable or very marginal areasunsuitable or very marginal areas

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

Undefined< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%WaterProtectedUnproductiveVery marginal Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use.

13.1 12.911.4

7.6

4.5

3.1

3.7

1.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1 2 3 4 5

10**

9 he

ctar

e

Built-upCropsForestUnvegetatedGrass/Shrub

Very marginal12%

Unproductive22%

Too steep11%Protected

9%

Livestock& Bioenergy

46%

1 ... Total land (excl. Antarctica and Greenland)2 ... excluding built-up land3 ... excluding arable and perennial cropland4 ... excluding forests5 ... excluding barren land & water

Source: IIASA-LUC, 2007

How much land is available?

UndefinedNot suitableUnproductive Very marginal MarginalModerately suitableSuitableVery suitableWaterProtectedBelow threshold

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

Climatic suitability for herbaceous Climatic suitability for herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic plants and woody lignocellulosic plants ……

…… on available grasson available grass--scrubscrub--wood landwood land

Reference climate

None< 11 - 55 - 1010 - 2020 - 5050 - 100100 - 200> 200Water

Undefined< 10%10% - 30%30% - 50%50% - 70%70% - 90% > 90%WaterProtectedUnproductiveVery marginal

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO and FAO, 2005.

Density of ruminant livestock (cattle equiv./ha)

Intensity of grass/scrub/wood land (percent)

Excluding from a total land area (excl. Antarctica & Greenland) of 13.1 billion hectares current cultivated land, forests, built-up land, water and unvegetated land (desert, rocks, etc,) results in some 4.5 billion hectare (35%).Excluding from these lands the very low and unproductive areas (e.g. tundra, arid land) a remaining area of 2.1 billion hectares is estimated (currently grassland & pastures, shrubs and woodland).Constructing detailed country-level livestock feed balances, we estimate that in year 2000 about 60-70 percent of the available biomass was used for animal feeding.Hence with current use, the land potentially available for bioenergy production is 600 – 800 million hectare, with a wide range of productivity.

How much land is available?Message 3:Message 3:

Lower HigherPot.Yield0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

mill

ion

cattl

e eq

uiv.

Grass<33%Grass>33%

Distribution of Ruminants by Land Productivity Classes

Lower HigherPot.Yield

Distribution of Pot. Production by Productivity Classes

0

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mill

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Prot/SteepCold/DryUseable

Distribution of Grass/Scrub/Woodland by Productivity Classes

Lower HigherPot.Yield0

100

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600m

illio

n he

ctar

e

Prot/SteepCold/DryUseable

• The charts show the distribution of grass-scrub-wood-land areas and potential production by bio-productiviy class.

• Protected land and land with steep slopes is shown in red; Very low productive areas are indicated as grey.

• Number of cattle, sheep and goat is shown by bio-productivity class respectively for areas where grass/scrub/woodland cover exceeds 1/3 of total (green) and for less than 1/3 (yellow).

• How do different scenarios of socio-economic development impact land use for food, feed and fiber, and built-up land?

• How much and where do climate impacts matter? What adaptation strategies need to be implemented? With what consequences to land and water resources, availability of land for energy production, emissions of GHGs?

Some Key Research QuestionsSome Key Research Questions

• How do different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change impact the ability to mitigate within land-based sectors?

• What are the options, trade-offs and impacts of a future high demand for biofuels?−Feasibility of such demand under different

socioeconomic pathways?−Are there low-input ways of growing

biomass? Under what conditions do they stand the economic test?

− Is there a trade-off between ‘efficiency’ and ‘local value’?

−What are the trade-offs in ecosystem services?

Some Key Research QuestionsSome Key Research Questions

• How well do social transitions fit with technological and land use transitions in different scenarios?

• What transition pathways from 1st to 2nd

generation technologies exist in terms of land use and feedstocks? What could be successful models for transition? How do they depend on environmental setting, socio-cultural conditions and development stage?

• Can a scenario be constructed where bio-energy becomes the cause of development?

Some Key Research QuestionsSome Key Research Questions