Upload
umed
View
97
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Biodiversity and Climate Change. Using Florida Plants To Explore Concepts in Ecology and Evolution. Biodiversity: The totality of life on Earth. Biodiversity Crisis & Societal P roblems. Loss of biodiversity Climate change E merging pathogens Invasive species - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Biodiversity and Climate Change
Using Florida PlantsTo Explore Concepts in Ecology and Evolution
Biodiversity:The totality of life on Earth
Biodiversity Crisis & Societal Problems• Loss of biodiversity• Climate change• Emerging pathogens• Invasive species• Threats to food security• Environmentally induced health issues
Solving these biodiversity-centered problemsrequires concentrated attention
from diverse perspectives
Invasive Species:Ecological & Economic Impacts
• Where have invasives been introduced, and how quickly are they spreading?
• What is the pattern of spread, and do patterns covary with other species?
• How does climate change affect the spread of invasives? • Can we predict future invasions?
Biodiversity Collections
The single largest source of informationon biological diversity (outside nature) >1,600 natural history collections in US alone
1 billion specimens in USA
2-4 billion specimens globally
Collections:The Library of Life
Florida Museum of Natural History
> 30 MillionSpecimens and Artifacts
2nd Largest University Museum in US
NMNH
LondonPari
s LAAMNH
Harvard
FLMNH
Michiga
nFie
ld
Cal Acad
emy
ANSP
Berkele
yYal
e
Nebras
kaKan
sas0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Collection Size: World Ranking
Institution
Mill
ions
of S
pecim
ens
Collection Size: US Ranking
Florida Plant Diversity in a Changing Climate
Integrating herbarium specimen data, climate change models, and phylogeny
C. Germain-Aubrey, J. Allen, K. Neubig, L. Majure, R. Abbott, R. Guralnick, J. M. Ponciano, D. Soltis, P. Soltis
Today, 2050, 2080
Florida Plant PhylogenyIncludes:
239 families (100% of FL)1336 genera (96% of FL)2587 species (63% of FL)
Modeling the Distribution of Species
• Location information and environmental data• Software to model the range of each species• Project onto future climate conditions• For Florida plants:– >1500 plant species (of 4200 species)– >511,000 georeferenced points – Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.
now 2050
now 2050
Abildgaardia ovata (flatspike sedge)
Prunus geniculata (scrub plum)
Responses to Climate Change: Winners & Losers
Florida Plant Diversity Now
High species diversity
Low species diversity
Field
Museum
Research Lab
Teaching ModuleObjectives• To use niche modeling as an example of how natural history collections are utilized by scientists.• To show students the applications of niche modeling, such as climate change and urbanization.• To familiarize students with the programs used to generate the models and the logic behind how those programs work.• To gain a better appreciation of the factors impacting the distribution of biodiversity today and in the future.
Focal Concepts
Skills Developed
Skills and access needed
Audience/Duration
Assessment
Future Directions• Add a phylogenetic context: Basic understanding of tree building, including parsimony and characters• The role of DNA in phylogenetic analysis, and the possible contribution of museum specimens in this process
• Introduction – Pam• Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan• iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn• Georeferencing – Blaine • Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte • Tying to phylogeny – Doug • Discussion & Wrap-up
Overview of Day’s Activities
Using Museum Specimens and Computer Models in Biodiversity Studies
• Herbaria important sources of information on past and present species distributions
• Location information and environmental data– temperature, precipitation, soil
• Software to model the range of each species
• Project onto future climate conditions
• >2700 plant species (of 4200) >511,000 plant location records
Calhoun County
www.idigbio.orgNational center for digitization of biodiversity collections
Collaboration among FLMNH, Engineering, & FSU: ~$12MCoordinate digitization and databasing of US collections
Ingest, serve, integrate data:Localities
DatesImages
134 institutionsin 49 statesTen TCNS and collaborating institutions: 152 institutions in 50 states
HUB
Georeferencing• Assigns geographic coordinates to locality data• Allows data from previous collection events to be
displayed on digital maps• Allows researchers to: – visualize the spatial and temporal intensity of scientific
collecting activity– examine species distributions– develop predictive models of species habitat use– use natural history data to address important scientific
and societal needs such as conservation, environmental restoration, and preparing for global climate change
Elements of a niche taxonomy
SpaceLocal
Requirements areconditions,
resources andinteractors
Geographic
Requirements aremostly conditions
Scenopoeticvariables
Mostly Impacts
Elton (1927) rolesOdling-Smee (1996)niche construction
Role ofImpacts and
Requirements
Requirements andImpacts
Hutchinson (1957),Mac Arthur, May,
Vandermeer, 1970s...competition niche.
Chase andLeibold (2003)
ecological niches
Whittaker, Levin& Root (1973)
Ecotopes
Role ofImpacts and
Requirements
Mostlyrequirements
Grinnell (2007),Jackson and Overpeck
(2000)Grinnellian niches
J. Soberon
Modeling the Distribution of Species
• Location information and environmental data• Software to model the range of each species• Project onto future climate conditions• For Florida plants:– >2700 plant species (of 4200 species)– >511,000 georeferenced points – Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.
• 8:30 Introduction – Pam• 9:00 Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan• 9:15 iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn• 9:30 Georeferencing – Blaine • 9:45 Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte • 10:00 Break• 10:15 Ecological Niche Modeling Step by Step• 12:30 Lunch• 1:00 Tying to phylogeny – Doug • Discussion & Wrap-up – all
Overview of Day’s Activities
Between Now and 2050…
# spp 2050 - #spp now
• Panhandle species moving NORTH!
• Peninsula species moving SOUTH!
Sea Level Rise by 2050
4m