Biobased Products Value Chain- Feedstocks, Products & Markets -

RRM-Meeting

Brussels, 2nd April 2014

Rainer Busch, T+I Consulting

Dietrich Wittmeyer, ERRMA

1

2

Bio-based products‘ value chains

3

• Value Chain 1: From lignocellulosic feedstock to advanced biofuels, bio-based chemicals and biomaterials: realising the feedstock and technology base for the next generation of fuels, chemicals and materials

• Value Chain 2: The next generation forest-based value chains: utilisation of the full potential of forestry biomass by improved mobilisation and realisation of new added value products and markets

• Value Chain 3: The next generation agro-based value chains: realising the highest sustainability and added value by improved agricultural production, and new added value products and markets

• Value Chain 4: Emergence of new value chains from (organic) waste: from waste problems to economic opportunities by realising sustainable technologies to convert waste into valuable products

• Value Chain 5: The integrated energy, pulp and chemicals biorefineries: realising sustainable bio-energy production, by backwards integration with biorefinery operations isolating higher added value components

Biobased Industries Consortium: Five Value Chains

4

Biobased Solvents - Update

2013 bio-based solvents market• Total European solvents market is estimated with 5 million tonnes

yearly.

• Different sources (Dechema, Fraunhofer Institute, ESIG) estimate today’s bio-based solvents volume with 50 to 100 KT (1 to 2%)

• JRC Report 2013 (EUR 25743 EN) gives a market of 630 KT bio-based solvents.

• Difference is identified to be related to the ethanol supply chain.

An European market of 630 KT bio-based solvents can be confirmed considering bio-ethanol used directly as a solvent or as a feedstock for other solvents.

5

Biobased Solvents - Update

Solvents and the Ethanol case (source NNFCC and industry):

• Ethanol global production 2008: 61 million tonnes (> 90% bio-based)

• Most applications in fuels and food & beverages

• Ca. 6 million tonnes for the industry

• Part of ethanol is used directly as a solvent, part blended with other solvents (e.g. ETOH/ETAC blend for inks), part used for downstream products (solvents like ETAC or non-solvents like ethylene, acetic acid…)

• Applications may switch back and forward considering market conditions

• The solvents application of ETOH, being bio-based or not, is very low compared with biofuel but as well industrial applications considering for example the chain ethanol ethylene polyethylene

• Bio-ethanol from biomass is a mature market being highly impacted by policies and incentives.

6

Biobased Solvents - Update

Prediction (what can we reasonably say today)• Main solvents application are ethanol and downstream products or

blends

• Development of ethanol will remain highly affected by regional and local policies

• Other bio-based solvents (alcohols, acetates) are mainly oxygenated solvents and have very low volumes representing no more than 1% of the market

• Their development will depend on competitive production conditions

• Today, it is not possible for the solvents industry to give serious fact based prediction of bio-based solvents market.

7

Biobased Solvents - Update

Some additional considerations in the bio-based solvents context

• Feedstock availability at competitive conditions

• Competitive production process

• Pull from downstream users

• Long term predictability of legal and incentives conditions

• Standardization will give the frame for companies and downstream users to develop their own bio-based strategies

8

Surfactants - Update

9

Surfactants - Update

10Source: Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU 2013-2023, European Commission

Agricultural Products & Markets - Update

11

Table 6.10 EU rice market balance, 2010-23 (million tonnes milled equivalent)

Table 6.11 EU oilseed* (grains and beans) market balance, 2010-23 (million tonnes)

Table 6.13 EU oilseed oil* market balance, 2010-23 (million tonnes)

Table 6.14 EU vegetable oil* market balance, 2010-23 (million tonnes

Table 6.15 EU sugar market balance, 2010-23 (million tonnes white sugar equivalent)

Table 6.17 EU biofuels market balance, 2010-23 (million tonnes oil equivalent)

Agricultural Products & Markets - Update

12

Source: nova-institute

Starch: European Starch Production & TradeEU-27

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Table 1 SugarTable 2 StarchTable 3 Cellulosic MaterialsTable 4, 5, 6 Plant OilsTable 7 Animal FatsTable 8 Biobased Platform

Chemicals and selected biobased products

OIL SEEDS & VEGETABLE OILS

20

FeedstockInter-

mediatesRaw

Materials(Platform)Chemicals

Materials,Products

• Oil seeds• Animals

• Oils• Fats

• Surfactants• Fatty acids• Fatty alcohols• Glycerine

Markets

• Paints & Inks• Lubricants• Detergents

22

Oilseeds: European Production & TradeEU-27

Source: Fediol

23

Plant Oils: European Production & TradeEU-27 Source: Fediol

24

Plant Oils: European Consumption per SectorEU-27

Source: Fediol

25

Plant Oils: Consumption in other industrial applicationEU-27

26

Also available:

• Global production of Palm & Palm Kernel oil• Global production of Soybean oil• Global production of Rapeseed oil• Global production of sunflower oil

Source: FAO

27

Plant Oil Derivatives: European ProductionEU-27

Source: EUROSTAT

28

Plant Oil Derivatives: European TradeEU-27

Source: EUROSTAT

29

Plant Oil Derivatives: European ConsumptionEU-27

30

Plant Oil Derivatives: Consumption per SectorEU-27

SUGAR

31

32

Sugar: European Sugar Crops ProductionEU-27

Source: FAOSTAT

33

Sugar: European Sugar Crops TradeEU-27

34

Sugar: European Sugar ProductionEU-27

Source: CEFS, FAOSTAT, EU Commssion (DG Agri)

35

Sugar: European Sugar TradeEU-27

36

Sugar: European Sugar Consumption per SectorEU-27

STARCH

37

38

Starch: European Starch Plants Production & TradeEU-27

Source: AAF

Source: EUROSTAT

39

Source: nova-institute

Starch: European Starch Production & TradeEU-27

40

Starch: European Starch Consumption per SectorEU-27

CELLULOSE

41

42

Starch: European Lignocellulose Feedstock ConsumptionEU-27

Source: CEPI

43

Starch: European Starch Plants Production & TradeEU-27

Source: CEPI

44

Starch: European Starch Plants Production & TradeEU-27

Source: CEPI

PRODUCTS & MARKETS

45

46

Source: FUCHS AG

Lubricants

47

Data provided by BASF SA

Platform Chemicals

48

Composites

49

Plastics

50

Solvents

• Consolidated data from ESIG and IAR will be provided by ESIG in December 2013