Bill English GEOG594A, S12014 1

Bill English, Draft Project GEO594A, Spring 1, 2014

Locating and Prioritizing Non-Evacuees Following a Tropical Event

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Analytical question

• Following a hurricane or tropical storm landfall along the southwest coast of Florida, what locations are more likely to have a higher number of non-evacuees requiring relief and damage assessment via the use of air assets?

• Exemplar event – Hurricane Charley, SW Florida, 2004

• Identify likely locations of non-evacuees• Correlate and triage damage areas with response assets

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Background - Known facts

• Limited evacuation route options

• False alarm effect• Population spread from towns and on barrier islands

Venice

Punta Gorda

Port Charlotte

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Population change data

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Historical Tracks - NOAA

Hurricane tracks for over 100 years. (TS not depicted)

Hurricane Charley highlighted

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Sarasota County Evacuation Map (excerpt)

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Lee County Evacuation Map (excerpt)

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Analyze Travel Cost Distance

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Road, Feature Class A

A1 - Primary Highway With Limited Access - Interstate highways and some toll highways, distinguished by the presence of interchanges.

A2 - Primary Road Without Limited Access - mainly US highways, may be divided or undivided, and have multi-lane or single-lane characteristics.

A3 - Secondary and Connecting Road - hard- surface (concrete or asphalt), and are usually undivided with single-lane characteristics.

A4 - Local, Neighborhood, and Rural Road - local traffic single lane of traffic in each direction

A5 - Vehicular Trail usable only by four-wheel drive vehicles, fire road or logging road

A6 - Road with Special Characteristics - Includes ferry crossings (significant for the project).

A7 - Road as Other Thoroughfare - not part of the vehicular highway system, bicyclists or pedestrians.

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Mobility factors

Legend

More than 15%households with no car

"' Nursing Homes

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Transportation and Population Factors

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Damage imageryPort Charlotte

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Imagery challenge

USGS Site showing available tiles in GEO TIFF They should have

looked like this…

…but displayed like this.

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Emergency Air Asset

Placida and Rotunda

Little Gasparilla

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Conclusions

•Challenge for emergency responders

•Population spread from main road arteries

•Natural barriers to road travel. •Determine likely concentrations of non-evacuees

•Emergency support and assistance prioritization

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Thank you for listening!