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Index

Note: Italic page numbers refer to maps; bold refer to tables; bold iIIllic to the Appendix to Chapter 4.

Abu Musa island, disputed control of, 70-1, 77

ACRS (Arms Control and Regional Security Working Group), 245

Aden Protectorate (British), 63, 64 ai-Afghani, Jamal ai-Din, Islamist reformer,

24,26 Afghanistan, as part of Northern Tier, 56, 57 Africa: prospects for economic growth, 160,

161, 162, see also Egypt; Maghreb; Middle East and North Africa (MENA); Sub-Saharan Africa

agriculture, 120; raw materials trade, 164-5, 166

aid: bilateral ODA from Arab countries, 190, 192; international regional links, 220,222,223; to Middle East, 168, 169-70; multilateral from OECD (DAC) countries, 190, 191, 192

Akaev, Askar, Kyrgyzstan leader, 52 Akl, Said, Lebanese nationalist, 38 Albania, 50, 229 Algeria, 36, 65; attempts at reform in, 6,

15-16, 17; boundary disputes, 68, 89; civil war, 16-17,20,240,255; defense expenditure, 4; economic reform program, 122, 125, 185, 186; economy, 120,121, 131, 186; elections (1991),14,15-17,27; FDI in, 193; FIS (Front Islamique du Salat), 14, 15-17,20,30; FLN (Front de Liberation National), 14, 15, 30; foreign cultural influence in, 145; foreign debt, 192; labor migration from, 109, 125; migration to, 110-11; ODA for, 190, 191; unlicensed mosques in, 13; water scarcity in, 121; workers' remittances, 124

Algiers Accord (1975), 70 Aliev, Haydar, Azerbaijani leader, 51 Amal movement, in Lebanon, 13 AMU see Arab Maghreb Union; Maghreb Andean Common Market, 130, 131 Ankara, Islamist political control of, 48 Aozou strip, sovereignty dispute (Chad-

Libya), 88,91

APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum),225

Arab Cooperation Council, 246 Arab international regime (projected), 136,

149, 198; 'exc1usivist' advocacy of, 139-41, 143, 144-5; linked with Middle East system, 146-7; previous moves towards, 147-8

Arab League, 66-7, 145, 147,246 Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), 246; trade

links, 218, 218, see also Maghreb Arab nationalism: authoritarian, 25; liberal,

25,27; secular, 33; Westernized, 37 Arab political thought, origins of modem,

23-4 Arab-Israeli conflict, 202, 207-10, 224;

demographic dislocation of, 103; masked subregional conflict, 9, 239; persistent core of, 148, 243

Arab-Israeli peace process, xiv, 8-9, 135, 202, 204; and economic prospects, 162, 171; European role in, 232; political effects of, 239, 242; possible effectsoL 32-3,56,254-5; and potential regional cooperation, 129-31,197-8,213,256; prospects for, 251-2; role of Western aid in, 169-70

Arabian peninsula: boundary delimitation in, 64, 81, 82; Islamist radicalism in, 27, see also Gulf region

Arafat, Yaser, Palestinian leader, 20 armaments, trade in, 11 Armenia: merchants from, 46; Turkish

relations with, 46, 50-I, 52 Arms Control and Regional Security

Working Group (ACRS), 245 Asad, President Hafez ai, of Syria, 10 ASEAN (Association of South East Asian

Nations) economic group, 129, 131, 132

Asharite Muslims, 35 Asia: capital flows to, 221, 222; trade links,

218,219, 219, see also East Asia; Japan

Asian workers, in Middle East, 104,106-7, 125,199

Atatiirk, Mustafa Kemal, 24, 43, 44, 48 Augsburg Compromise (1555), 58 authoritarianism: economic reputation of,

180; exercise of, 3, 28; paradox of, 12-14; persistence of, 11-12; and

273

274 Index

pressure for refonn, 19-20, 21, 244; and rise of Is1amist radicalism, 8, 13-14

Azerbaijan: and Karabagh problem, 46, 51, 52; and oil pipeline project, 51; Turkish interests in, 45, 46, 50-1, 54

Baghdad,28,34 Bahrain, 5, 21; boundary dispute with Qatar,

67, 68, 79; defense expenditure, 4; FDI in, 193; ODA for, 190, 191; parliamentary experiment (1971-5), 11

'balance of power': in Middle East, 209, 213,257; model of international relations theory, 135, 136, 148

Balkans, 50, 215n, see also Bosnia; Bulgaria; Greece

Bank for Development (in MENA), authorisation of, 250

banks see finance; investment aI-Banna, Hasan, Muslim Brotherhood, 24,

26 Ba'thist states, repression by, 28 Beirut, 28, 63 Ben Ali, Zine e1 Abidine, President of

Tunisia, 16, 17 bilateralism, 246, 248; economic, 131,

206--7; in regional integration, 251, 253-4, see also free trade agreements

Bonaparte, Napoleon, invasion of Egypt, 23, 26

borde~defined,58 Bosnia, 32, 40, 201, 229; EU role in, 232;

Turkish interests in, 45, 50; USINATO intervention in, 225-6

boundaries: and concepts ofterritoriality, 60-2; and contradictory definitions of sovereignty, 59-60; cultural penneabilityof, 144-5; disputed, 66--7,67-73,76-94,208;European colonial, 62-5; maritime disputes, 72, 80; and migration policies, 113-14; of modem independent states, 66--7; significance of, 58-9, see also migration; security

Bulgaria, 50, 105 bureaucracy, in authoritarian states, 11-12,

21 Bush, George, US President, 214 Bushire Residency (Persia) (1793), 63 Byblos, Lebanon, 38

Cairo, 5, 28

Cairo Declaration (OAU 1964) on boundaries, 67, 68

Caliphate: Abbasid, 35; abolition of, 24, 41 ; Turkish center of, 48

Camp David Accords, 28 Canada, regional variation in, 141 capital flight, from Middle East, 168, 186 capital flows, 221, 222, 223; unrequited

transfers, 184-5, see also aid; investment

Caribbean, economic prospects of, 162 Caspian region, oil finds in, 51 Caucasus: Arab perception of, 239;

nationalism in, 243, 246; Russian interests in, 224; Turkish interests in, 45, 50-2, see also Annenia; Azerbaijan; Georgia

censorship, and information technology, 5 CENTO (Central Treaty Organization), 44 Central Asia: Arab perception of, 239;

nationalism in, 243, 246; and Northern Tier concept, 57; Russian interests in, 224-5; Turkish interests in, 45, 51, 52-4, see also Kyrgyzstan; Tajikistan; Uzbekistan

Chad, boundary with Libya, 65, 68, 88 Chechnya, 51, 224 Chiha, Michel, Lebanese nationalist, 38 Chile, equities market, 123 China, economic growth of, 129 Christendom, medieval, 35, 36 Christianity: Mediterranean perspective of,

34; relations with Islam, 41 CIS (Community of Independent States) see

Russia (CIS) citizenship, definitions of, 113, 114 civil society, xiii, 3, 16; and economic

reform. 132-4; and interdependence, 136--7; skewed by authoritarianism, 12

CJTF (Combined Joint Task Forces), 233 class structure: stability of, 30-1, see also

middle classes Clinton, W., US President, 214; economic

limitations on policy, 225; and EU role in Middle East, 232; multilateral­ist early foreign policy, 217, 225, 226

Cold War: bipolarity of, 201,204,214; superpower influence in Middle East, 208-9,210-11

Cold War, end of: and decline of EU influence in MENA, 232; effect on Arab-Israeli conflict, 213; effect on global economy, 202, 204; effect on migration policies, 113; effect on

Index 275

Northern Tier states, 56-7; effect on superpower influence in Middle East, 10,31-2,201-2,238-9; worldwide effects of, 201, 241

Combined Joint Task Forces (CJTF), 233 communications: regional cooperation in,

169: technology, 5, 154 comparative advantage: and integration,

196; in resources and trade, 186-9 conditionality, in economic reforms, 170 conflicts: confrontation, 255; effect on

migration, 102, 103-5; fragmentation, xiii, 254-5; potential for, 254, 256; resolution of, 242, 248, see also AraJr.lsraeli conflict; cultural conflicts

Connelly, Matthew, 214 Constantinople see Istanbul Corm, Charles, Lebanese nationalist, 38 corruption, 6 Crusades, the, 35 CSCE (Conference for Security and

Cooperation in Europe) (now OSCE), 50,234,245,247

CSCM (Conference for Security and Cooperation in the Mediterranean), 50

cultural conflicts, xii, 243; lack of EU policy on, 229-30, 231; in Mediterranean region, 35--Q

culture: factor in authoritarianism, 11; factor in global integration of MEN A, 241, 242,243; foreign influences on, 145; integration of Arab, 144-5; and Mediterranean project, 23, 40-1, 42; political, 3; in projected Middle East system, I 35--Q; and Turkish influence in Central Asia, 53

Curzon, Lord, and Persian Gulf, 70 Cyprus, Turkish policy on, 43-4

Damascus, 28, 34 debt, external, 120-1, 185, 192-3; relief,

131; rescheduling, 185 defense expenditure, 3,4, 189; factor in

government policy, 176, 178; pressure to reduce, 8, 247

democracy: and economic reputation, 180, 181 ; and Islarnist concepts, 9; and Mediterranean project, 41; prospects for, 3,4,7,239,247-8; in smaller states, 10; symbols of, 15; in Turkey, 6,46,48-9,55--Q

demography: dependency ratios, 121; effect of return migration on, 108; linkage with security, 10 1-3, 116-17, see also popUlation

desertification, 138 developing countries: development

strategies for, 153; prospects for economic growth, 159--Q2,161; regional agreements between, 168-9; role of social structure in, 184, see also structural adjustment

disintegration, forces of, xi, 20 I, see also regional integration

disputes: over resources, 72-3, see also boundaries; conflicts

Djibouti, boundary dispute with Somalia, 92 drug trade, 50

East Asia: economic growth, 39, 129, 163, 171; economic regionalization, 155, 156-7, 156,202; prospects for, 160, 161; trade with Middle East, 187

Eastern Europe: agreements with EU, 241; capital flows to, 221; trade links, 218, 219,219

EC (European Community): and trade with US, 205; and Turkish membership applications, 48

ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) (Northern Tier states), 57

economics: alternative reform strategies, 133-4; effect of structural imbalances, 154-5, 159, 170; export substitution policy, 125; factor in Central Asia, 52-3; macroeconomic tendencies, 119-22,127-8,16I,184--Q,243;and migration, 95, 108; and political stability, 119; primacy of, xi, 241, 245--Q; reform programs, 119, 122--Q, 163,239; regional coordination, 119, 248; structural reforms, 163, 167, 186, 243-4; transition to growth, 119, 126-8,244-5; vulnerability to shock, 122; of Western imperialism, 37, see also regional integration; structural adjustment programs; trade

education, 4-5, 97,132-3; and economic growth, 163; expenditure, 3, 4

EFTA (European Free Trade Area), 155, 156

Egypt, 5, 65; Arab Socialist Union, 12; boundaries, 71, 89; capital flows to, 221, 222; cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Syria (1976),148; cultural influences, 144, 145; defense expenditure, 4, 8; economic reform programs, 122, 125, I 85--Q; economy, 12, 121, 123, 187; elections, 12, 14, 15; FDI in, 193; foreign debt, 120,

276 Index

194; Islarnism in, 7, 9, 13, 14; and Mediterraneanism, 37-8; migration policies, 114; Napoleonic invasion of, 23,36;NationruDiruogue memorandum (1994), 20; New Civic Forum, 19-20; ODA for, 190,191; po1iticru reforms in, 6, 16, 19-20; public and private investment, 127, 127; relations with Libya, 105; relations with US, 10,206,208; role in regional integration, 249, 251; skilled labor migration from, 97, 98, 104-5, 110-11, 125; and Sudan, 89, 110; trade agreement with Jordan, 256; trade with EU, 187; trade flows, 188; trade with Israel, 138-9, 198; trade specialization patterns, 164, 189; Turkish relations with, 55; workers' remittances, 124, 132; world trade share, 16&-7, 187, see also Arab League; Muslim Brotherhood; Nasser

Elchibey, Abulfaz, Azerbaijan president, 51, 54

elections: Islamist participation in, 17-18, 19; manipulated, 12, 15; proportional voting, 15-16

electorates,pragmatismof,I4-15,17,18-19 elites: resistance to political reform, 3-4;

statist views of, 29 employment: in business sector, 126, 199;

'informal' sector, 127-8, 199; public sector, 126, 199; of women, 5, see also labor; migration; unemployment

energy: regional cooperation on, 169, see also oil

environmentru management, joint ventures, 132,140

equities, traded, 123 Eritrea, boundary with Ethiopia, 93 ERSAPs (economic reform and structural

adjustment programs), 122, see also structural adjustment

Ethiopia, boundary disputes, 92, 93 ethnic nationalism, 105, 244; in Central

Asia and Caucasus, 243; Kurdish, 47; in Turkey, 47; Turkic, 43, 45,53-4

Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, 232, 241, 247,250; and regional integration, 251,252,253,254-5,256-7

Europe: anti-Islamic incidents in, 40; concepts of sovereignty, 58-9, 66; economic regionalization, 155, 156, 157; equivocal Arab view of, 24-5, 36-7; labor migration to, 109,228-9;

medieval resistance to Islam, 34; and Mediterraneanism, 39-40, see also European Union; France; Germany; Great Britain; Mediterranean

European Community (EC): and trade with US, 205; and Turkish membership applications, 48

European Economic Community, 129 European Union (EU), 141,251,255; aid

commitments, 223; capital flows from, 221, 222; and Central and Eastern European Euro-Agreements, 241; Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), 232, 233, 257; financial links of, 220; interests in MENA region, 228-30, 241; lack of policy on cultural pluralism, 229-30, 231; and MENA regionalism, 217, 251; military role for, 225; trade links, 218, 219, 219; trade links with Israel, 207; trade with Middle East, 187, 189, 200, 217-18; and US interests in MENA, 231-4, see also Euro­Mediterranean Partnership

exchange rates, 129 exports: to lead growth, 167,243,244-5,

248; substitution policy, 125

POI (foreign direct investment), 153-4, 192, 193; by US, 205

finance: flow patterns, 189-94,220,221, 222; liberalization of, 122-3, 129, 163, see also aid; capital; investment

First World War, and collapse of Ottoman Empire, 24, 36, 41, 59

food industry, trade patterns, 164-5, 166 foreign direct investment (POI), 153-4, 192,

193; by US, 205 France: capital flows from, 221, 222;

colonial, 25, 62, 65; influence in Maghreb, 38, 145; labor migration from Maghreb, 109,229

Franco, Generalissimo Francisco, 21 free trade agreements, 153, 197,256, see

also EFTA; MEFTA; NAFTA; regional cooperation

freemasonry, among Shiite Muslims, 26 French Revolution, and concept of nation­

state, 58 frontiers, defined, 58 Fukuyama, Francis, 214

GAIT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), 122,205,206

Index 277

Gaza, 7; internal boundary with Israel, 72, 83, 142

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), 122,205,206

generational change see youth Genoa, medieval, 35 Georgia, ethnic conflicts in, 51, 52 Germany, 63, 113; capital flows from, 221,

222; military commitment of, 212, 227; Turkish gast-arbeitern in, 44, 49, 229

Ghaddafi see Qaddafi, Muammar Ghannoushi, Rashid, Tunisian Islamist

leader, 17 globalization, xii, 216, 245-6; of

competition, 162-3,243; economic, xi, 129, 139, 153, 154--5; interaction with regionalization, 157-9, 170; and interdependence, 136

Golan Heights: disputed control of, 71, 83, 84; Japanese troops in, 227

Gorbachev, Mikhail, and Syria, 10 government: abuses of power by, 6;

integration policy option, 181-3,182, 196-7; Islamist movements' critique of, 13-14; migration policies of, 112-14; military influence in, 3-4, 8; and national consensus, 133-4; policy choices of isolated model, 175-8, 175,178; regime security of, 100, 10 I, see also state

Great Britain, colonial, 25, 62, 63-4 Greece, 35, 44, 50; mercantile tradition, 46 Gulf Cooperation Council, 246 Gulf oil states: macroeconomic performance

of,28, 184, 186, 189; support for non­oil states, 131,185,190, 192; trade flows, 188; trade with Israel, 198-9; trade specialization patterns, 165; world trade share, 166-7, see also Iraq; Kuwait; Qatar; Saudi Arabia, UAE

Gulfregion: defined, xiii; British involvement in, 63-4; capital flows to, 221, 222; disputes over boundaries and resources, 72-3, 76-9,80; Palestinians in, 98, 102; as pole of mobility, 98, 109, 110; potential for conflict in, 202, 204, 210-13; and regional integration, 246; trade links, 218,218,219,220; Turkish security interests in, 45-6, see also Gulf oil states; Levant

Gulf War (Operation Desert Storm), 11,32, 67,208,239; demographic dislocation of, 103, 104, 115, 125; Turkish

involvement in, 54--5; and US interests in Gulf, 211-12, 223

Gulf War (second), 137,224

health: expenditure, 3, 4; provision for, 132-3 Heikal, M.H., 139, 143-4 'hidden economy', nature of, 99 Hizballah movement (Shiite), in Lebanon,

13,17-18,27,252 Holy Roman Empire, 58 Horn of Africa: boundaries, 94, see also

Ethiopia; Somalia human rights: and Mediterranean project,

41; movements, 6, 12; US commitment to, 213

humanitarian intervention, xii Huntingdon, Samuel, 214, 258n Husayn, Taha, Egyptian writer, 37 Husayn-McMahon understanding (1915-

16), betrayal of, 24 Hussein, King of Jordan, 7 Hussein, Saddam, of Iraq, and inva~ion of

Kuwait, 211-12

Ibn Saud (first King of Saudi Arabia), 64 IMF (International Monetary Fund), xii,

123, 185 imperialism, European, 25, 36 industrialization, 97, 184; increased

production capacity, 162, 171 industry: agro-based, 120,164-5,166;

export substitution, 125; import substitution, 11-12; manufacturing, 121; trade patterns, 164-5, 167

information technology, 5, 137, 154 integration see disintegration; regional

integration interdependence, international, xi, xii, 135,

136-7, 148-9; a~ ahistorical, 143; economic, 159; management of, 247; and problem of hierarchy, 142-3, see also international regime

interest rates, 129 International Atomic Energy Agency

(IAEA), xii international change, 135, 137, 237-8, see

also Cold War, end of International Court of Justice at The Hague,

see also appendix to chapter 4 for other references and boundary disputes, 68, 69, 72

international law: boundary disputes in, 67, 72; conflict with Islamic concepts, 66; Turkish acceptance of, 44

278 Index

international multilateral organizations, xii; role in integration, 197, 245

international organization: defined, 146; limitations of, 147

international regime: attempts at, 147-8; defined, 146, see also Arab international regime (projected); Middle East system

international relations theory: migration in, 96, see also 'balance of power'; inter­dependence

Internet, 5 investment: effect of reputation on, 179,

192; foreign and domestic, 120-1, 192; policies to attract, 168,200,244; public and private, 126-7,127, see also aid; capital; foreign direct investment (FDI)

iqta " concept of (concession), 60 Iran, 12, 56, 60, 202; and 1973 oil crisis,

205; and access to Tigris-Euphrates water, 73; boundary disputes and claims, 67, 70, 71, 76-7; capital flows to, 221, 222; defense expenditure, 4; domestic pressure for reform, 6, 240; foreign debt, 194; instability of, 211, 255; interests in Caucasus, 51; interests in Central Asia, 54; investment in, 127, 193; Islamic Revolution (1979), 27; Islamism in, 9, 18,19; minorities in, 19,55; ODA for, 190, 191; relations with Iraq, 103, 211-12; role in regional integration, 142,249; support for Bosnian Muslims, 50; trade links, 218, 219; Turkish relations with, 44, 45-6, 54, 254

Iran, Shah of: Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi (1941-79),14; Reza Shah Pahlavi (1925-41), 44

Iran-Iraq War, demographic dislocation of, 103

Iraq, 32, 62, 63, 208; and access to Tigris­Euphrates water, 73; boundary dispute with Kuwait, 69-70, 77; boundary disputes with Iran, 76; boundary with Saudi Arabia, 64, 77; citizenship policy, 114; economy, 120-1, 125, 131; effect of Arab-Israeli peace process on, 56; foreign debt, 194; instability of, 73, 74, 211, 255; Kurdish nationalism in, xii, 45, 54; ODA for, 190, 191; relations with Turkey, 86, 254; and Shatt-al-Arab

boundary, 67, 70, 76; Shiite refugees from, 104, see also Gulf War; Kurds

Islam: concept of sovereignty in, 60, 66; early expansionism of, 34-5; European view of, 229; perception of struggle with Christendom, 35-6, see also Islamism; Ottoman Empire; Qajar Empire

Islamism, xiii, 9; activist, 25, 28; among Turkish migrant workers, 49; fundamentalist, 9, 203; likely move towards, 30, 242; political aims of, 28-9; Western attitude to, 230, see also Islamist movements

Islamist movements: call for political change, 6, 13-14; nature of popular support for, 13-14,27,30-1; origins and rise of, 7-8, 12-13,26-8; participation in elections, 17-18, 19; perception of West as threat to, 37; possible effect of Arab-Israeli peace process on, 32, 56; radicalism of, 17, 20, 255; response to political reforms, 19-20, 244; supported against left, 7-8; as welfare providers, 132-3

isolation: political-economic model of, 174-8, see also regional integration

Israel, 5, 32, 37; bilateral agreements, 206, 253; boundary disputes, 71-2, 83-4, 85; capital flows to, 221, 222; creation of state, 101, 115,201; economy, 184, 186-7,240,245;FDI in, 193; interference in West Bank and Gaza, 20; migration-security linkage, 101, 102, 111, 114,115; military superiority, 4, 8, 142-3,254, 255; nuclear capability, 202, 209-10, 215n; regional hegemony, 135, 139-40, 142-3, 149,252; relations with Iraq, 211-12; rise of religious right in, 242; role in proposed MEFTA, 130, 197-8,207; role in regional interdependence, 137, 143, 254, 257; support for Islamists against PLO, 7, 8; trade flows, 188-9,188, 198; trade links, 218, 219; trade relations with Egypt, 138-9, 198; trade specialization patterns, 165; Turkish relations with, 44, 55, 254, 256; US support for, 10, 140, 142, 184,224; US trade with, 206, 207; water scarcity in, 73,121; world trade share,166-7, 187, see also Zionism

Istanbul, 5, 35,48, 61

Index 279

Italy, 201; capital flows from, 221, 222; and North Africa, 38, 65

Japan, 39, 129,201,203,257; capital flows from, 221, 222; economic power of, 157,204; economic relations with Asia, 202, 220, 221, 222; and Latin America, 220, 222; military commitment of, 212, 227; policy towards Israel, 226-7; relations with MENA region, 226-8, 240; reliance on US security role, 227-8; role in Middle East, 214, 223, 231, 235, 251; trade imbalance with US, 205, 206; trade links with Gulf region, 217-18, 218,219,220

Jerusalem, 34, 63, III Jews, as merchants, 46 joint ventures: as capital flow, 192; regional,

131, 132, 140 Jordan: boundaries with Israel, 71, 83;

British mandate, 62, 63, 64; defense expenditure, 4, 8; and demographic effects of Gulf War, 105; economic reform programs, 122, 185--6; economy, 121,123,187; elections, 14; FDJ in, 193; foreign debt, 120, 194; labor migration from, 125; moves towards reform in, 6, 12, 17, 20,30,244; ODA for, 190, 191; trade agreement with Egypt, 256; trade flows, 188; trade with Israel, 198; trade specialization patterns, 164, 189; US security rents for, 10; water scarcity in, 121; workers' remittances, 124,132; world trade share, 166-7, 187, see also Palestine

Jordan river, access to water rights, 73 Judaism, Mediterranean perspective of, 34

Kennedy,Paul,214 Khalil, Mustafa, Egyptian prime minister,

139 Khartoum Summit (1967),147 Khomeini, Ayatollah, of Iran, 28 Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), 47, 50, 51, 55 Kurds: in Iraq, xii, 45, 54; as migrant

workers, 49-50, 104; PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), 47, 50, 51, 55; as refugees, 103; in Turkey, 8, 45, 47, 54

Kuwait, 5, 63, 64; attempts at reform in, 6, 20, 244; boundary dispute with Iraq, 69-70,77; cultural influence of, 144; defense expenditure, II ; economy, 194; FDI in, 193; financial aid from,

192; iJJegai migrant labor in, III, 114; potential target for conflict, 211; reconstruction process, 115; relations with Turkey, 54-5; Saudi influence in, 21, see also Gulf War

Kyrgyzstan, relations with Russia, 52

labor: availability, 125; demand, 108; factor in economic reform, 123; iJJegal, III; non-national,98, 104, 145; tradable, 99, 126, 198, 199-200, see also employment; migration; unemployment

labor migration, 111-12, 125, 132; foreign (non-Arab), 145, 199; political significance of, 5, 98-9, see also remittances, workers'

Latin America: capital flows to, 221, 222; prospects for growth, 160, 161, 162; regional economic cooperation, 130, 131,207; trade links, 218, 219, 219, 220,221,222,222

Lausanne, Treaty of (1923), 63 leadership, regional, 178, 197 League of Nations, mandate system, 62 Lebanon, 5, 62; Amal movement, 13;

boundaries, 63, 71,84; debt arrears, 120; demographic dislocation of civil war, 103-4, 109,229; economy, 120-1,125; Hizballah movement, 13, 17-18; and Mediterraneanism, 38; migration-security linkage, 10 I, 115; moves towards political reforms in, 17,18,20; ODA for, 190, 191

Levant, 23, 27, 62, 246; capital flows to, 221, 222; disputes over boundaries and resources, 83-4; trade links, 218, 218, 219, 219, see also Iraq; Israel; Jordan; Lebanon; Palestine; Syria; Transjordan

liberals: among Arab nationalists, 25, 27; and Mediterraneanism, 39; political views of, 29-30, 244

Libya, 65, 205; attempts at reform in, 6-7; boundary disputes, 65, 68, 72, 88, 89; capital flows to, 221; economy, 131, 187; Egyptian migrant workers in, 105; FDI in, 193; trade links, 218, 219; trade specialization patterns, 165; US policy on, 32,232; world trade share, 166-7

localism, xi, xii

Maastricht Treaty, 128-9,232,233

280 Index

Madrid conference, on Arab-Israeli peace process, 232

Maghreb (Arab West), 16,38,246; capital flows to, 221, 222; economic growth rates, 120, 186; links with France, 38, 109,229; as pole of mobility, 109; trade with EU, 187,218,219,219; trade flows, I32, 188; trade specialization patterns, 164, 189; world trade share, 166-7, 187, see also Algeria; AMU (Arab Maghreb Union); Morocco; Tunisia

Malaysia, 203 Malta, maritime disputes, 72 mandate system (League of Nations), 62, 97 market economy: and level of integration,

180; and Mediterranean project, 41; reforms for, 163,239; in Turkey, 46

Marxism, 25, 31, 37, 201, 203 Mashreq (Arab East), 38; economic growth

rates, 120; experimental reform in, 16; free trade area proposed, I30; as pole of mobility, 109, see also Gulf region; Levant; Maghreb; Middle East

Mawardi (11th century), concept of territoriality, 60

al-Mawdudi, Abu A'la, Indian Islamist, 27 Mecca, centrality of, 27, 34 media: foreign influences in, 145;

proliferation of, 5, 144-5; in Turkey, 46

Medina, centrality of, 34 Mediterranean region, 33-4; Arab-Islamist

perspectives on, 23, 34-6; population movement across, 228-9; security interests of, 50

Mediterraneanism: Arab reservations about, 39-40; Egyptian nationalism and, 37-8; Lebanese nationalism and, 38; North African nationalisms and, 38; prospects for, 40-2, 247, 248, see also Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

MEFT A (Middle East Free Trade Area), proposed, 129-30, 197-8

Mercosur (Latin American free trade zone), I30,207

Mexico, 123, 155 middle classes: aspirations of, 5, 147;

liberals among, 29, 244; new (1950s-1960s), 25, 30; support for state, 12, 16,21,30

Middle East: boundary disputes between Arab states, 68-70; boundary disputes with non-Arab states, 70-2; inclusion of non-Arab states in, 239;

significance of population factors in, 96; trade with EU, 187, 189, see also Gulf region; Levant; Turkey

Middle East Free Trade Area (MEFT A), proposed, 129-30, 197-8

Middle East and North Africa Economic Summit process, 232, 247, 250

Middle East and North Africa region (MENA), xi-xii, 237-8; boundaries in, xiii, 59--67; Cold War balance of power in, 208-9, 210-11; economic analysis of, 183-95; economic prospects for, 162-4,164-7, 168-70, 245, 259n; EU interests in, 228-30; Japan's relations with, 226-8; lack of Arab unity in, 208; place in international system, 238-41; prospects for integration, 196-200, 255-8; regionalism in, 217, 248; security dilemmas in, 234--5; trade flows, 188; trade links, 217-23, 218, 219, 221, 222; Turkish role in, 54-6; US interests in, 223-4, 225, 226, see also Gulf region; Levant; Maghreb; North Africa; Turkey

Middle East system (projected), 135, 145--6, 146, 149; 'expansionist' support for, 139-41

migration, 95--6, 101, 110; between Europe and MENA, 228-9; economic factors in, 99, 115; effect on nature of states, 97,1I5,1I6-17;ethnicfactorin, 105; illegal, 111; permanent, 102, 111-12; phases of, 105, 106-7, 108-9; pilgrimage, III; poles of mobility, 109-10; political factors in, 99-100, 115; return, 104, 108-9, 112, 123, 125; towards US, 231, see also labor migration; refugees

military: in Algeria, 17; and national security, 137, 142-3; role of, xiii, 21, see also defense expenditure; NATO; security

minorities, non-Muslim, 14 Mongols, threat to Islamic world, 35, 36 Montevideo Convention (1933), and

boundaries, 58 Morocco, 36, 61, 62,65; attempts at reform

in, 6, 244; bilateral agreements, 253; boundary disputes and claims, 66, 67-8,87, 87-8; defense expenditure, 4; economic reform programs, 122, 185,192; economy, 121,121, 123, 125, 186; election rigging, 15; foreign debt, 120, 194; Internet connections,

Index 281

5; investment in, 127, 193; labor migration from. 109, 125; ODA for, 190,191; workers' remittances, 124, 132

mosques, resistant to state control, 13, 28 Mubarak, Hosni, President of Egypt, 6, 20,

68 Muhammad Abduh, Islamist reformer, 24,

26 Muhammad Ali, viceroy of Egypt (1805-

48),24 multilateralism, 207, 216-17; weakening of,

204,206 Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt), 20, 26-7 Mussolini-Laval Treaty (1935), 65 Mustafa Kemal see Atatilrk Mutazilite Muslim philosophers, 35

NACC (North Atlantic Cooperation Council), 50

NAFfA (North American Free Trade Agreement), 39, 155-6,156, 157; trade with Middle East, 187; US influence on, 206, 225

Nagorno-Karabakh see under Azerbaijan al-Najjar, Said, Egyptian New Civic Forum

leader, 19-20 Nasser, Gamal Abdel, President of Egypt,

27,114,147,208 nation-state, significance of boundaries to,

58-9 nationalism see Arab nationalism; ethnic

nationalism; renationalization NATO (North Atlantic Treaty

Organization), 245; in Bosnia, 225-6; and EU role, 233-4; Turkey's membership of, 43, 44; US and, 232

Near East: defined, xiii, see also Levant; Middle East

nepotism, 6 non-Arab states see Caucasus; Central Asia;

Iran; Israel; Turkey non-governmental organizations:

government look-alike, 12; liberal demands of, 30

North Africa, xiii; boundary disputes, 67-8, 87-9; colonial boundary definition, 64-5; Islamist radicalism in, 27; and Mediterraneanism, 38; tribal territorial control in, 61, 62, see also Egypt; Hom of Africa; Libya; Maghreb

North America: economic regionalization, 155-6,156,157, see also Latin America; NAFf A

Northern Tier States: concept of, 44, 56-7; cooperation schemes, 246; disputes over boundaries and resources, 86--7, see also Iran; Turkey

nuclear weapons, 215n; Israeli, 202, 209-10

OAU (Organization of African Unity), Cairo Declaration (1964) on boundaries, 67, 68

Occupied Territories: trade integration with Israel, 197; workers' remittances, 124, see also Israel; Palestine

OECD countries: ODA to Arab countries, 191; prospects for economic growth, 161; US share of production, 203

Official Development Assistance (ODA), 190,191,192

oil: boundary disputes over, 72-3, 76--9; embargo crisis (1973),148,205; factor in Turkish-Arab relations, 44, 46-7; and importance of boundaries, 63-4, 65, 69; pipelines through Caucasus, 51

oil prices: collapse (1986),185; falling, II, 108, 192; and power to control. 195, 211; prospects for, 122, 195,214; rise (1973),98,192,202; and US policy, 212-13,224

oil production: labor migration towards, 98; prospects for, 194-5; and shift in economic power, 28, 120, 147; Western policies to protect, 37

Oman, 6; defense expenditure, 4; FDI in, 193; ODA for, 190, 191

OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), 195

opposition movements: power of, 16; and pressure for reform, 244; radical, 7, 17-18,27, see also Islamist movements; Kurds; public opinion

OSCE see CSCE • Oslo Agreement, 232 Ottoman Empire: administrative

organization of, 60--I, 62-3; collapse of, 24, 41, 44, 59, 63; and concept of sovereignty, 60; legacy in Turkey, 43, 44,47,48,55; and rise of European power, 24, 63-4; Sunni Islam centred on, 44, 48; territories in Africa. 65; and tribal control ofterritory, 61-2, see also Istanbul; Turkey

282 Index

Ozal, Turgut, Turkish president, 46

Pacific Asia see East Asia; Japan Pakistan, 56, 57, 123 Palestine, 23, 25, 62-3; European support

for, 231-2; and Israeli-Jordan boundaries, 71-2,83; Japanese support for, 231; moves towards reform, 20; nationalism in, 7; Occupied Territories, 124, 197; population displaced, 98, 102-3; and regional integration, 249; water scarcity in, 121

Palestine Liberation Organization, 7, 190, 232

pan-Arabism, nature of, 25 pan-Turkism, 43,53 patriotism, regional Arab, 24 patronage systems, traditional, 5-6 Peres, Shimon, Israeli prime minister, 139 Persia: Shia Islam in (1501), 60, see also

Iran Persian Gulf see Gulf region Philippines, 201 Phoenicians (ancient), 38 PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), 47, 50, 51, 55 Polisario Front, disputes with Morocco, 87,

103 political economy theory, 3; migration and

interdependence, 96, 108 political parties: emergence of, 16; state

control of, 12-13, 28 political reform: external interference in,

9-10, 20-1; Islamist response to, 19-20,27; liberal demands for, 29-30,239; Mediterranean project and, 40; prospects for, 3-7, 20-1, 246, see also democracy; elections

political systems, parliamentary, 25 politics: migration as factor in 'high' and

'low', 96, 100; new principles for regional, 239

popularity, factor in government policy, 175-8,175,181,182-3

population: age structure, 121; and economic growth, 161; growth, 4-5, 229; linkage with security, 101; and migration factor, 95, 114, see also demography; migration

Portugal, and North Africa, 38 power politics see balance of power price(s): inflation rates, 128; liberalization,

122, 163 privatization: in economic reform programs,

123, 163; of social services, 132-3

protectionism, economic, 157 public opinion: increasing importance of,

239; and national consensus, 133; protests, 6; in Turkey, 46

public services: deterioration in, 6, 132-3, see also education; health

Qaddafi, Muammar, reforms of, 7 Qajar Empire, 59, 60 Qatar: boundary disputes, 67, 68, 78, 79;

and dispute over gas field, 72, 77; financial aid from, 192

qaza (Ottoman administrative district), 62 Qutb, Sayyid, Islamist radical, 24, 27

Rabin, Yitzak, Israeli prime minister, 242, 252

radicalism: of Islamist movements, 17, 20; of opposition movements, 7, 17-18, 27; as response to authoritarianism, 8, 13-14

REDWG (Regional Economic Development Working Group), 256

reform: pressures for, 10-11, 21, see also economics; political reform

refugees, 99, 102-3, 112; European fear of, 229; as migrant workers, 103; repatriation of, 112

regional cooperation, 3, 170, 171,246; economic, 129-32, 137, 159,256; on employment, 199-200; prospects for, 249-50; trade agreements, 168-9, 197-8,213,256,257, see also regional integration; trade

Regional Economic Development Working Group (REDWG), 256

regional integration, xi, 192, 242; alternative scenarios in ME, 196-7,237,247-9, 256; 'Arab first', 130-1, 248-9; bilateral, 251, 253-4; conceptual framework of, 174-83; costs and benefits of, 178-81,179,180; economic incentives to, 183-95,244; economic prospects for, 162-4, 164-7,168-70,245, 259n; gradual, 250-1,252-3,256; option of, 181-3, 182; prospects for, 196-200, 206, 208,213,255-8; rapid, 250, 251-2, see also regional cooperation

regional nationalisms, Arab, 24, 25, 239, 246

regionalism, xii, 216, 217, 235; Euro­MENA imbalance, 230-1; North-South, 217, 243, 253; open,

Index 283

158, 170; of trade links, 217-20, see also regional cooperation; regional integration

regionalization: economic, 153, 155-7, 156, 202; interaction with globalization, 157-9, 170; and transatlantic relations, 23{}-1

religion: appeal of, 27; and pilgrimage, III; role of, xii, 203, see also Islam; Islamism

remittances, workers': economic effects of, 98-9,117,124-5,124,132,192; falling, 186, 199

renationalization, 246-7; tendency towards, 216,223,235

reputation (creditworthiness), factor in integration, 179-80, 180, 181, 182-3

resources: and comparative advantage, 186-9; factor in nature of state, 97; trade in resource-intensive products, 164-5, 166, see also oil; water

Rida, Rashid, Islamist conservative, 24 Russia (CIS), 51, 59; influence in Caucasus,

51-2,224; influence in Central Asia, 52-3,54,57,224-5,243; relations with Middle East, 209, 225, 240, 255, see also Soviet Union

Russia (imperial), 43, 59 Rwanda, 201

Sadat, Anwar, President of Egypt, 114, 208; assassination (1980), 27, 242

Saudi Arabia, 5, 6, 60, 64; boundary disputes and claims, 67, 68, 68-9, 77, 78; cooperation with Egypt and Syria (1976), 148; defense expenditure, 4, II; PDI in, 193; financial aid from, 192; foreign debt, 194; influence of, 21, 50, 205, 211; manufacturing industry, 121; relations with Turkey, 54-5; role in Yemeni crisis (1994), 9-10, 2{}-1; US support for, 202, 205

aI-Sayyid, Ahmad Lutfi, Egyptian writer, 37 Second World War, 98; legacy of, 25, 212 sectarianism, 12 secularism: future prospects for, 28, 33; in

Iran, 44; in pan-Arabism, 25; reaction to, 27, 29; Turkish (Atatiirk), 43, 48

security: and balance of power in ME, 208-9, 21 {}-13, 214; concept of, Io{}-I; factor in government policy, 175, 176, 178; and international change, 137, 142-3,245; linkage with demography, 101-2, 116-17;

migration factors in, 96, 10{}-3, 115-16; shared responsibility for, 214,217, 223, 242,257; and significance of boundaries, 59, 67-73; US role in MENA, 212-13, 213-14, 22H, 227-8, see also military; NATO

security rents, I (}-II Sevres, Treaty of (1920), 63 shari'a (Islamic law), Islamist demand for,

13,29 Sharjah, and control of Abu Musa island,

7{}-1 Shatt-al-Arab, boundary dispute, 67, 70, 76 Shiite Islam: liberalism of, 26, see also

Hizballah; Qajar Empire; Sunni Sidon, Lebanon, 38 Singapore, 203 Six Day War, 147 social contract, need for new, 132-4 Somalia, 110, 201; boundary disputes, 92,

93; irredentist claims, 67, 92 Somaliland, boundary dispute with Somalia,

93 Southeast Asia see East Asia sovereignty: concept of, 242; contradictory

definitions of, 5~0; effects of migration on, 95; principles of, 58, 66, see also boundaries; security

Soviet Union: economic subsidies to Middle East, 10, 185, 202; effect of collapse of, 31, 209, 254; Turkish relations with, 43, 56, see also Russia (CIS)

Spain, 21, 35; capital flows from, 221, 222; and North Africa, 38, 65, 88

state(s): and civil society, 132-4; crisis of legitimacy of, 30, 133; and economic globalization, 154; and economic regionalization, 157, 250; effect of pro-American policies on, 32; failure of modern Arab, 25, 27-8, 74; role in labor migration, 105, 106-7, 108; role of non-nationals in, 98; role in population movements, 96-7, 98, 11{}-11, 112-14, 116; security dimensions for, Io{}-I, 115-16, see also government; migration; nation­state; sovereignty

statists: and Mediterraneanism, 39; political aims of, 29

structural adjustment programs (SAPs), 159, 162, 163-4; mixed results of, 168, 171,184,244-5; multilateral, 185-{i;

284 Index

national, 183, 185, see also economics; ERSAPs

Sub-Saharan Africa: capital flows to, 221, 222,223; trade links, 218, 219, 219

Sudan: boundary with Egypt, 89; defense expenditure, 4; Egyptian migration to, III; instability of, 12,255; Islamism in, 19,27; manufacturing industry, 121; migration from, 110, 125; National Islamic Front, 12, 19

sufism, among Shiite Muslims, 26 Sunni Islam: in Ottoman Empire, 44, 48;

religious conservatism of, 26, see also Shiite Islam

Sweden, Turkish migrant workers in, 49 Sykes-Picot agreement (1916), 24-5, 62 Syria, 62, 145,208; and access to Tigris-

Euphrates water, 73, 86-7,121; and Arab-Israeli peace process, 20, 56, 252; boundary disputes with Israel, 71,83; cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Egypt (1976),148; defense expenditure, 8; economy, 121, 125, 187; election rigging, 14; PDI in, 193; foreign debt, 120, 194; and Islamism, 27,30; ODA for, 190, 191; support for PKK, 55; trade specialization patterns, 165, 189; workers' remittances, 124; world trade share, 166-7

Ta'if accord (1989), 18 Ta'if, Treaty of (1934), Saudi-Yemen

boundary,64 Tajikistan, 54, 224 Tanzimat period (Ottoman Empire) (1839-

78),24 taxation: in oil states, 11, 12; and territorial

sovereignty, 60-1 technology: and economic growth, 163,243;

factor in nature of state, 97; and globalization, 5, 137, 154,204-5; Israeli superiority in, 139, 140, 141, 189; to solve water scarcity, 138

territoriality: and citizenship, 114; concepts of,60-2

terrorism: 'exported' to Europe, 49-50; fear of, 9, 230

thalweg (river boundary), 70, 71 Tibet, 57 Tigris-Euphrates river, access to water from,

73 torture, government use of, 6 tourism, 137-8, 145

trade: balance indicators, 172-3n; geographical flows, 187,188; inter­Arab, 145; international, 204-6; intra-regional, 132, 187, 198; in labor, 99, 126, 198, 199-200; liberalization, 122,163, 178; regional links, 217-23, 218, 219, 221, 222; regional trends, 155-7, 156; specialization patterns, 164-5, 172n, 188-9,245; world shares, 166-7, 187,203, see also exports

Transjordan: British mandated territory, 62, 63, 64, see also Jordan

tribal control of territory, 60-2 Tripoli,61 Trucial States, 63 Tunbs islands, dispute over control of, 70-1,

77 Tunisia, 5, 36, 61, 65; attempts at reform in,

6, 16; bilateral agreements, 253; defense expenditure, 4; economic reform program, 122, 185, 192; economy, 121,121, 123, 125, 186; fear of Muslim fundamentalism, 9; foreign debt, 194; French cultural influence, 145; government, 8, 15; investment in, 127, 193; Is1amist al­Nahda party, 17; labor migration to Europe, 109; maritime dispute with Libya, 72; ODA for, 190, 191; water scarcity in, 121; workers' remittances, 124

Turkey: Alevis minority in, 14; bilateral agreements, 253, 254; boundary and resources disputes, 73, 86-7; capital flows to, 221, 222; and Central Asia, 52-4; defense expenditure, 4; and demographic effects of Gulf War, 105; domestic factors in foreign policy, 46-7; economy, 12, 123; PDI in, 193; foreign debt, 194; interests in the Caucasus, 45, 50-2; Internet connections, 5; Islamist Refah (Welfare) party, 13, 14,48-9,55;and Kurdish nationalism, 8, 45, 47-8, 49-50; and Mediterranean security, 50; membership of NATO, 43, 44, 45, 49; migrant workers from, 44, 49-50, 229; nationalism in, 46, 47-8; new foreign policy, 45--6; ODA for, 190, 191; and Ottoman heritage, 43, 44, 47,48,55; as part of Northern Tier, 44,56,57; political reforms in, 6, 240; potential ideological changes in,

Index 285

47-9,240,242,251; relations with Arab states, 43-4, 142; relations with Europe,49-50,218,218,219; relations with Greece, 44, 50; relations with Israel, 44, 55, 254, 256; role in Middle East, 54-6, 57; secularism of, 43, 48; traditional foreign policy, 43-5, see also Istanbul; Kurds

Turkic ethnic nationalism, 45, 47-8 Tyr, Lebanon, 38

UAE (United Arab Emirates), 192,211; boundary disputes, 77; defense expenditure, 4

unemployment: and economic reform, 123-4; growing, 5, 199, see also employment; labor

UNESCO, report (1984), 144 UNIKBDC (United Nations Iraq-Kuwait

Boundary Demarcation Commission), 70, 75n

United Nations (UN), xii, 32; and boundary disputes, 67; military role, 255; Security Council Resolutions (687 and 883), 69; third Law-of-the-Sea Conference (UNCLOS-3), 72

United States of America, 36, 145,214,257; allies in Middle East, 20 I, 202; anti­communism of, 206; capital flows from, 221, 222; decline of power, 203-4; foreign policy dilemmas, 214, 224,225-6,232-4,240,255; hegemonic power of, 31, 205, 209, 242, 251; interests in MEN A region, 223-4, 225, 226, 232-3, 240; military role in Middle East, 212-13, 213-14, 240,242; and NAFfA, 39, 225; Northern Tier states' relations with, 44, 56; and potential conflict in Gulf region, 210-13; relations with Egypt, 205, 208, 224; relations with Europe, 231-4,251; relations with Iran, 202, 205, 224; relations with Russia in Central Asia, 224-5; relations with Saudi Arabia, 202, 205; security rents in Middle East, 10-11; support for Israel, 140, 142, 184,206,224; trade links, 217-18, 218, 219, 219, 220, see also Clinton, W.

Uqair Protocol (1922), 64 urbanization, 6, 132 Uzbekistan, 54

Venice, medieval, 35 Vienna, Congress of (1815), 59 vi/ayet (Ottoman administrative province),

61,63

water: disputes over access to, 73; regional cooperation on, 138, 169; scarcity, 121

welfare see education; health; public services

West, The: and Middle Eastern cultural diversity, 243; migration policies of, 13; perceived as monolithic threat, 31-2, 242; role for, 245; support for Israeli hegemony, 139-40, 142-3, 149, see also European Union (EU); OECD; United States

Western European Union (WEU), 233, 245 Western Sahara: boundaries, 65, 90;

Moroccan claims over, 66, 67-8 Westernization, reaction to, 25, 26, 37 Westphalia, Treaty of (1648),58 women: employment of, 5; liberal pressure

groups, 30 World Bank (IBRD), 123, 185 World Trade Organization (WTO), xii, 206

Xinjiang, 57

Yemen: 1994 civil war, 9-10, 69; attempts at reform in, 6, 12; boundary disputes, 64,68-9,78-9;debtarrears,120;FDI in, 193; foreign cultural influence in, 145; migration from, 110, 125; Nasser's withdrawal from (1967), 147; ODA for, 190, 191; water scarcity in, 121; workers' remittances, 124, 132

Yom Kippur War (1973), 148 youth: and demographic age structure, 121;

ideological perspectives of, 27, 31 ; unemployment, 124, 126

Yugoslavia (former), 59, 20 I, 229, see also Bosnia

Zionism, Western backing for, 36 Zionist-American Organization for 'Middle

East Union' (1943), 139 Zohab, Treaty of (1639), 60

Index by Auriol Griffith-Jones