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BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Mobile Ad Revenue Forecast, 2009-2014
Mobile Local MediaNov. 29, 2010
4© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
U.S. Mobile Advertising Forecast 2009-2014
$491$790
$1,186
$1,591
$2,136
$2,946
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CAGR: 43%
US
$ M
illio
ns
Note: Numbers are rounded.
9© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
Mobile Ad Formats: Definitions and DriversAd Format Definitions Key Inputs/Drivers
Search (National and Local)
Text advertising applied to search queries on mobile devices.
Search volume, CTRs, CPCs, ad coverage. Vetted against core search engine revenues.
Display(National and Local)
Display advertising applied to app and mobile Web inventory. Includes rich media.
Mobile Web use, page views, impressions, CPMs, sell through rates. Vetted against ad network revenues.
SMS(National and Local)
Commercial SMS messaging.
SMS penetration, volume, CPMs, sellthrough. Vetted against ad network revenues.
10© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
Share of Mobile Ad Spend by Format
$206 $356 $554 $652 $714 $803$59
$163
$307$548
$954
$1,581
$226
$271
$325
$390
$468
$562
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Display Search SMS
US
$ M
illio
ns
Note: Numbers are rounded.
11© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
Format Breakdown and Growth in Scale
$206
$59
$226
2009
$803
$1,581
$5622014
Display Search SMS
12© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
U.S. Mobile Advertising: Search
$59$163
$307
$548
$954
$1,581
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CAGR: 93%
US
$ M
illio
ns
Note: Numbers are rounded.
13© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
U.S. Mobile Advertising: Display
$206
$356
$554
$652$714
$803
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CAGR: 31%
US
$ M
illio
ns
Note: Numbers are rounded.
14© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
U.S. Mobile Advertising: SMS
$226$271
$325
$390
$468
$562
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CAGR: 20%
US
$ M
illio
ns
Note: Numbers are rounded.
16© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
Mobile Local Advertising: Takeaways
• BIA/Kelsey defines mobile local advertising as that which is targeted based on a user’s location and/or actionable locally.
• This local targeting happens to different degrees, and with different methods, within each of the advertising formats examined above (search, display, SMS).
• BIA/Kelsey projects U.S. mobile local ad revenues to grow from $213 million in 2009 to $2.03 billion in 2014.
18© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
Mobile Local Advertising 2009-2014
$213$404
$692
$984
$1,402
$2,025
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
$ M
illio
ns
CAGR: 57%
Note: Numbers are rounded.
26© 2010 BIA/Kelsey
Forecast Methodology
• Forecast data are based on interviews, company reports, market surveys, third-party resources, usage trends, knowledge of industry players, media ad spend shifts, and expected company outcomes.
• The forecast is divided into mobile ad formats, each of which is bought and sold in different units and requires different forecasting models.
• This “top down” approach is vetted against a “bottom up” approach, which adds up revenues of top players in each mobile advertising segment (i.e., mobile ad networks).
• Traditional definitions of ad spending apply to this forecast. This doesn’t include marketing or promotional expenditures such as coupons.
Copyright © 2010 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
This published material is for internal client use only. It may not be duplicated or distributed in any manner not permitted by contract. Any unauthorized distribution could result in termination of the client relationship, fines and other civil or criminal penalties under federal law. BIA/Kelsey disclaims all warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein and similarly disclaims any liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages that may result from the use or interpretation of this information.
Questions and comments:Michael Boland | [email protected] | 415.462.1935
