14
 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1  ( ` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) Net sales 18,477 17,276 6.9 15,756 17.3 EBITDA 5,958 5,815  2.5 4,982 19.6 EBITDA margin (%) 32.2 33.7 (141)bp 31.6 63bp PAT 1,011 1,027 (1.5) 1,304 (22.4)  Source: Company, Angel Research  Bharti Airtel (Bharti) reported a mixed performance for 3QFY2012, with revenue coming in-line with our as well as street expectations. The company, however, disappointed on the operating and profitability fronts due to higher depreciation and amortization expenses. Also, minutes of usage (MOU) of mobile – India as well as Africa business declined by 1.0% and 2.5% qoq to 419min and 125min, respectively. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.  Result highlights: For 3QFY2012, Bharti’s consolidated revenue stood at  ` 18,477cr, up 6.9% qoq. Revenue from mobile services for India came in at  ` 10,176cr, up 4.0% qoq on the back of a 3.2% qoq increase in average revenue per minute (ARPM) to  ` 0.45/min. However, MOU declined by 1.0% qoq due to slow traffic growth. Zain Africa’s contribution to revenue stood at  ` 5,358cr, up by whopping 16.7% qoq, aided by INR depreciation and 2.5mn net subscriber additions. EBITDA margin of mobile India as well as Africa business increased by 0.18bp and 0.47bp qoq to 33.8% and 26.7%, respectively. However, EBITDA margin of all the other business segments declined sharply, which led to a 141bp qoq decline in Bharti’s consolidated EBITDA margin to 32.2%. PAT came in at  ` 1,011cr, down 1.5% qoq, negatively impacted by higher depreciation costs of  ` 3,585cr in 3QFY2012 vs.  ` 3,184cr in 2QFY2012 and higher tax rates. Outlook and valuation: Bharti is on its way to turnaround its Africa business by bringing down its network operating expenditure by outsourcing various network-related developments. Thus, we expect the combination of stable KPIs and cost efficiencies to drive the EBITDA margin for the Africa business to 26.6% and 27.0% by FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. We expect Bharti’s Indian and African mobile subscriber base to post a CAGR of 8.2% and 17.4% over FY2011–13E to 189.9mn and 60.9mn subscribers, respectively. However, key downside risks such as 1) uncertainty in regulatory outcome; 2) pricing scenario in  Africa operations; and 3) delay in return on investments made in 3G launches, still loom. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS) Y/E March ( ` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Net sales 36,962 41,847 59,467 71,601 80,983 % chg 36.8 13.2 42.1 20.4 13.1 Net profit 8,615 9,108 6,035 4,705 6,927 % chg 27.3 5.7 (33.7) (22.0) 47.2 EBITDA margin (%) 41.4 40.3 33.7 32.8 33.3 EPS ( ` ) 22.7 24.0 15.9 12.4 18.2 P/E (x) 15.6 14.7 22.3 28.6 19.4 P/BV (x) 4.4 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 RoE (%) 28.3 21.6 12.4 8.9 11.6 RoCE (%) 23.3 17.6 8.2 8.3 10.9 EV/Sales (x) 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 8.1 9.7 8.5 7.0  Source: Company, Angel Research  NEUTRAL CMP  ` 354 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 68.5 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.2 FII / NRIs / OCBs 17.5 Indian Public / Others 5.8  Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 0.8 (0.4) 90.4 Bharti Airtel (10.9) 6.2 9.4 Face Value (  ` ) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code 134,435 0.6 445/309 480,795  Telecom  Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap (  ` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low 5 17,707 5,368 BRTI.BO BHARTI.IN  Ankita Somani 022-39357800 Ext: 6819 [email protected] Bharti Airtel Performance highlights 3QFY2012 Result Update | Telecom February 8, 2012

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1

 

(` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy)

Net sales 18,477 17,276 6.9 15,756 17.3

EBITDA 5,958 5,815  2.5 4,982 19.6

EBITDA margin (%) 32.2 33.7 (141)bp 31.6 63bp

PAT 1,011 1,027 (1.5) 1,304 (22.4)

 Source: Company, Angel Research 

Bharti Airtel (Bharti) reported a mixed performance for 3QFY2012, with revenue

coming in-line with our as well as street expectations. The company, however,

disappointed on the operating and profitability fronts due to higher depreciation

and amortization expenses. Also, minutes of usage (MOU) of mobile – India as

well as Africa business declined by 1.0% and 2.5% qoq to 419min and 125min,

respectively. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock. 

Result highlights: For 3QFY2012, Bharti’s consolidated revenue stood at

 ` 18,477cr, up 6.9% qoq. Revenue from mobile services for India came in at

 ` 10,176cr, up 4.0% qoq on the back of a 3.2% qoq increase in average revenue

per minute (ARPM) to  ` 0.45/min. However, MOU declined by 1.0% qoq due to

slow traffic growth. Zain Africa’s contribution to revenue stood at  ` 5,358cr, up by 

whopping 16.7% qoq, aided by INR depreciation and 2.5mn net subscriber

additions. EBITDA margin of mobile India as well as Africa business increased by 

0.18bp and 0.47bp qoq to 33.8% and 26.7%, respectively. However, EBITDA 

margin of all the other business segments declined sharply, which led to a 141bp

qoq decline in Bharti’s consolidated EBITDA margin to 32.2%. PAT came in at ` 1,011cr, down 1.5% qoq, negatively impacted by higher depreciation costs of

 ` 3,585cr in 3QFY2012 vs.  ` 3,184cr in 2QFY2012 and higher tax rates.

Outlook and valuation: Bharti is on its way to turnaround its Africa business by 

bringing down its network operating expenditure by outsourcing various

network-related developments. Thus, we expect the combination of stable KPIs

and cost efficiencies to drive the EBITDA margin for the Africa business to 26.6%

and 27.0% by FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. We expect Bharti’s Indian

and African mobile subscriber base to post a CAGR of 8.2% and 17.4% over

FY2011–13E to 189.9mn and 60.9mn subscribers, respectively. However, key 

downside risks such as 1) uncertainty in regulatory outcome; 2) pricing scenario in

 Africa operations; and 3) delay in return on investments made in 3G launches,

still loom. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Net sales 36,962 41,847 59,467 71,601 80,983

% chg 36.8 13.2 42.1 20.4 13.1

Net profit 8,615 9,108 6,035 4,705 6,927

% chg 27.3 5.7 (33.7) (22.0) 47.2

EBITDA margin (%) 41.4 40.3 33.7 32.8 33.3

EPS (`) 22.7 24.0 15.9 12.4 18.2

P/E (x) 15.6 14.7 22.3 28.6 19.4

P/BV (x) 4.4 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.3

RoE (%) 28.3 21.6 12.4 8.9 11.6

RoCE (%) 23.3 17.6 8.2 8.3 10.9

EV/Sales (x) 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 8.1 9.7 8.5 7.0

 Source: Company, Angel Research 

NEUTRALCMP  ` 354

Target Price - 

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 68.5

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.2

FII / NRIs / OCBs 17.5

Indian Public / Others 5.8

 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 0.8 (0.4) 90.4

Bharti Airtel (10.9) 6.2 9.4

Face Value ( ` 

)BSE Sensex

Nifty 

Reuters Code

134,435

0.6

445/309

480,795 

Telecom

 Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap ( ` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

517,707

5,368

BRTI.BO

BHARTI.IN

 

Ankita Somani

022-39357800 Ext: 6819

[email protected]

Bharti Airtel

Performance highlights

3QFY2012 Result Update | Telecom

February 8, 2012

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 2

Exhibit 1: 3QFY2012 – Financial performance (Consolidated, IFRS)

(` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 9MFY12 9MFY11 % chg (yoy)

Net revenue 18,477 17,276 6.9 15,756 17.3 52,736 43,202 22.1

Operating expenditure 12,518 11,461 9.2 10,774 16.2 35,256 28,685  22.9EBITDA 5,958 5,815 2.5 4,982 19.6 17,479 14,517 20.4

Depreciation & amortization 3,585 3,184 12.6 2,711 32.2 9,900 7,236 36.8

EBIT 2,374 2,631 (9.8) 2,271  4.5 7,580 7,281  4.1

Interest charges 788 1,119 (29.6) 747 5.5 2,761 1,498 84.3

Non operating expenditure - - - 0 - - (23) -

Other income - - 26 - 98

PBT 1,586 1,513  4.9 1,550  2.3 4,818 5,902 (18.4)

Income tax 559 490 14.0 337 65.9 1,563 1,279  22.1

PAT 1,028 1,023 0.5 1,213 (15.3) 3,256 4,623 (29.6)

Share in earnings of associate (6) - - (6) (7)

Minority Interest 11 (4) (345.5) (90) (111.9) (3) (77) (95.6)

Adj. PAT 1,011 1,027 (1.5) 1,304 (22.4) 3,253 4,707 (30.9)

EPS ( ` ) 2.7 2.7 (1.6) 3.4 (22.4) 5.4 12.4 (56.7)

EBITDA margin (%) 32.2 33.7 (141)bp 31.6 63bp 33.1 33.6 (46)bp

EBIT margin (%) 12.8 15.2 (238)bp 14.4 (157)bp 14.4 16.9 (248)bp

PAT margin (%) 5.5 5.9 (47)bp 8.3 (279)bp 6.2 10.9 (470)bp

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:  Actual vs. Angel estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimate % Var.

Net sales 18,477 18,133 1.9

EBITDA margin (%) 32.2 34.1 (181)bp

PAT 1,011 1,445 (30.0)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

In-line revenue growth

For 3QFY2012, Bharti reported modest revenue growth of 6.9% qoq, with

consolidated revenue coming in at  ` 18,477.

Exhibit 3: Revenue break-up (Business segment wise)

Business segment (` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy)

Mobile services – India & South Asia 10,176 9,783  4.0 9,146 11.3

Mobile services – Africa 5,358 4,591 16.7 4,044 32.5

Telemedia services 913 953 (4.2) 907 0.7

Enterprise services 1,188 1,104 7.6 1,050 13.1

Passive infrastructure services 2,439 2,377  2.6 2,197 11.0

Others 399 406 (1.7) 195 104.9

Eliminations 1,997 1,937 3.1 1,783 12.0

Net revenue 18,477 17,276 6.9 15,756 17.3

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 3

Mobile business – India and South Asia: Revenue of the mobile business – India

and South Asia – grew by 4.0% qoq to  ` 10,176cr on the back of 3.2% qoq growth

in ARPM to  ` 0.45/month. However, MOU reported a 1.0% qoq dip to 419mn due

to lower growth in traffic. Revenue of mobile – India and South Asia – business wasalso impacted because of the slight decline in value-added services (VAS) share

(even when 3G services are launched in all the circles and this was seasonally a

strong quarter for telecom companies), which decreased to 14.3% in 3QFY2012

from 14.5% in 2QFY2012. All this led to 2.2% qoq growth in ARPU to

 ` 187/month. In 3QFY2012, the company added 2.87mn subscribers in this

segment, taking its total subscriber base to 175.6mn.

Exhibit 4: Trend in MOU (qoq)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Trend in VAS share (qoq)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 6: Trend in ARPM (qoq)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7: Trend in ARPU (qoq)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Mobile – Africa business: For 3QFY2012, Zain Africa’s revenue stood at  ` 5,358cr,

up 16.7% qoq, aided by addition of 2.5mn subscribers, taking its total subscriber

base to 50.9mn and a 0.1% qoq increase in ARPM to US¢5.7/min. However,

MOU declined by 2.5% qoq to 125min, which led to a 2.3% qoq fall in ARPU to

US$7.1/month.

(0.9)

4.9

2.7

(5.5)

(1.1)

(0.1)(0.8)

(4.9)

(1.0)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

   3   Q   F   Y   1   0

   4   Q   F   Y   1   0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   (   %   )

   (  m   i  n  s   )

MoU qoq growth

11.0

11.8 11.6

12.7

13.8

15.014.6 14.5 14.3

9

10

11

12

1314

15

16

   3   Q   F   Y   1   0

   4   Q   F   Y   1   0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   (   %   )

 VAS share

(7.8)

(9.1)

(4.6)

(0.9) (0.6)

(2.4)

(0.8)0.9

3.2

(12)

(8)

(4)

0

4

0.2

0.4

0.6

   3   Q   F   Y   1   0

   4   Q   F   Y   1   0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   (   %   )

   (        `   /  m   i  n   )

 ARPM qoq growth

(8.6)

(4.6)

(2.0)

(6.3)

(1.6)(2.5) (1.8)

(3.8)

2.2

(12)

(8)

(4)

0

4

150

200

250

   3   Q   F   Y   1   0

   4   Q   F   Y   1   0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   (   %   )

   (        `   /  m  o  n   t   h   )

 ARPU qoq growth

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 4

Exhibit 8: Operating metrics for Zain Africa

3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg qoq 3QFY11 % chg yoy

  ARPM (US¢/min) 5.7 5.7 0.1 6.1 (6.4)

MOU (min) 125 128 (2.5) 120 3.5  ARPU (US$/month) 7.1 7.3 (2.3) 7.3 (3.0)

Subscriber base (mn) 50.9 48.4 5.2 42.1  20.9

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Telemedia services: Revenue of the telemedia business declined by 4.2% qoq to

 ` 913cr due to a 4.1% qoq decline in its ARPU to  ` 916 in 3QFY2012 from  ` 955 in

2QFY2012, as this is seasonally a weak quarter for the telemedia business. Also,

the total subscriber base of Bharti in this business declined by 11 to 3,317.

Currently, the company derives ~54% of the revenue of telemedia services from

data services (non voice-based services).

Exhibit 9: Telemedia – Subscriber base and ARPU trend

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Enterprise services: Revenue of the enterprise services segment grew by 7.6% qoq

to  ` 1,188cr in 3QFY2012.

Passive infrastructure services: Revenue growth in the passive infrastructure services

segment stood at 2.6% qoq to  ` 2,439cr. Tenancy ratio improved to 1.91 in3QFY2012 from 1.89 in 2QFY2012.

964

937

961

954

934

934

952

955916

600

800

1000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

   3   Q   F   Y   1   0

   4   Q   F   Y   1   0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   (        `        )

   (   i  n   0   0   0   '  s   )

Telemedia subscribers (in 000's) ARPU

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 5

Exhibit 10: Trend in passive infrastructure business (qoq)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Margins decline

During the quarter, at the operational front, EBITDA margin of mobile – India and

South Asia – business and mobile – Africa business grew by 0.18bp and 0.47bp

qoq to 33.8% and 26.7%, respectively. However, EBITDA margin of all the other

business segments declined sharply, with margin of telemedia services, enterprise

services and passive infrastructure business decreasing by 541bp (steep due to

migration in billing system), 457bp (due to disruptions occurred on account of fire

at one of its data centers) and 11bp qoq to 38.8%, 16.9% and 37.3%, respectively.

  All this led to a 141bp qoq decline in Bharti’s consolidated EBITDA margin to32.2%. This decline is attributed to high SG&A expenses and access charges. 

Exhibit 11: Segment-wise EBITDA margin trend (qoq)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

1.65 1.65 1.681.73

1.77 1.79 1.81

1.75 1.78 1.80 1.831.87 1.89 1.91

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0

300

600

900

1,200

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   T  e  n  a  n  c  y   (  x   )

   N  o .  o   f   t  o  w  e  r  s   (   i  n   0

   0   '  s   )

Bharti Infratel (BTIL) Indus BTIL tenancy Indus tenancy  

35.2 34.933.3

34.2 33.7 33.8

46.144.6 45.2 45.5 44.2

38.8

24.721.5

25.7

22.1

21.516.9

37.1 38.6 37.0 37.7 37.537.3

15

25

35

45

55

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

   (   %   )

Mobile services-India & South Asia Telemedia services

Enterprise services Passive infrastructure services

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 6

Exhibit 12: Opex break-up (qoq)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

During the quarter, Bharti’s consolidated net profit stood at  ` 1,011cr, down 1.5%

qoq, negatively impacted by higher depreciation costs of  ` 3,585cr in 3QFY2012

vs.  ` 3,184cr in 2QFY2012 (on account of a one-off item) and higher tax rate of

35.2% vs. 32.4% in 2QFY2012.

Outlook and valuation

Bharti is on its way to turnaround its Africa business by bringing down its network

operating expenditure by outsourcing various network-related developments.

The company has been consistently adding above 2.0mn subscribers per quarter

in its Africa business. In terms of KPIs, the company has managed to keep its ARPM

constant at US¢5.7/min and is expecting prices to remain stable in the African

market. However, MOU, after reporting a continuous increase since the past six

quarters, posted a decline of 2.5% to 125min in this quarter. Thus, we expect the

combination of stable KPIs and cost efficiencies to drive the EBITDA margin of the

 Africa business to 26.6% and 27.0% by FY2012 and FY2013, respectively, from

25.3% in FY2011.

On the domestic business front, the company undertook price hikes of 20% for

on-net prepaid calls for all its 22 circles. This has gradually pushed ARPM to

 ` 0.45/min in 3QFY2012 from  ` 0.43/min in 2QFY2012. We expect Bharti’s Indian

and African mobile subscriber base to post a CAGR of 8.2% and 17.4% over

FY2011–13E to 189.9mn and 60.9mn subscribers, respectively. In addition, we

expect VAS share to inch up due to surging demand for non-SMS data services to

further comfort the company’s ARPM. Bharti’s MOU is expected to remain soft

because of the various free minute packages offered by competition as well as

some moderation in volumes due to increased rates.

The strong cashflow generation on account of 1) the expected improvement in

operating profitability due to price increases in the domestic market and

cost-efficiency measures in Africa business and 2) lower capex needs of ~US$3bn

annually in future are expected to help the company’s debt repayment abilities.

However, key downside risks such as 1) uncertainty in regulatory outcome;

2) pricing scenario in Africa operations; and 3) delay in return on investments

made in 3G launches, still loom. We remain Neutral on the stock. 

12.4 12.9 13.3 12.6 13.2 13.9

21.8 21.4 21.9 21.8 22.5 22.7

8.2 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.45.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.2

18.2 19.9 17.1 17.7 16.6 16.2

33.7 31.6 33.5 33.7 33.6 33.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

   (   %   )

 Access charges Network costs License fee Employee cost S,G&A cost EBITDA margin

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 7

Exhibit 13: One-year forward EV/EBITDA (x)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Risks and concerns

Bharti, as per its accounting policy, is accounting for forex loss occurred on interest

being paid on forex debt in the profit and loss statement; however, forex loss on

balance sheet items (revaluation losses) is included in the foreign currency 

translation reserve. Due to INR depreciation over the past five months (10-12%),

even after reporting ~ ` 3,250cr of profit in 9MFY2012, the net worth of the

company is almost flat from FY2011 ( ` 51,623cr) to 3QFY2012 ( ` 51,950cr), as

foreign currency translation reserve is taking a hit, moving from  ` 1,402cr to

negative  ` 1,014cr.

Currently, the effective interest cost of Bharti is 5.5%, which is much lower than the

domestic interest cost. Bharti, due to huge forex debt in its books, is always

exposed to the risk that the effective interest costs might turn out to be higher than

reported costs in the long run, courtesy foreign currency movement, if interest rate

parity kicks in. Keeping this scenario in mind, if we were to assume effective

interest costs to be ~10.5% (nearer to domestic borrowing cost), the interest outgo

of Bharti would increase manifold. This would increase Bharti’s interest cost by 

100% and FY2013E EPS would be reduced to  ` 12.5 from  ` 18.2, thus implying

that Bharti would be trading at very expensive valuations of ~25x PE.

Exhibit 14: Change in estimates

FY2012 FY2013

Parameter Earlier Revised Variation Earlier Revised Variation

(` cr) estimates estimates (%) estimates estimates (%)

Net revenue 71,094 71,601 0.7 80,835 80,983 0.2

EBITDA 24,060 23,509 (2.3) 28,441 27,001 (5.1)

PBT 7,320 6,742 (7.9) 11,213 9,839 (12.3)

Tax 2,026 2,043 0.9 2,803 2,952 5.3

PAT 5,326 4,705 (11.7) 8,446 6,927 (18.0)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

0

75,000

150,000

225,000

300,000

375,000

450,000

525,000

   A  p  r -   0   7

   A  u  g -   0   7

   D  e  c -   0   7

   A  p  r -   0   8

   A  u  g -   0   8

   D  e  c -   0   8

   A  p  r -   0   9

   A  u  g -   0   9

   D  e  c -   0   9

   A  p  r -   1   0

   A  u  g -   1   0

   D  e  c -   1   0

   A  p  r -   1   1

   A  u  g -   1   1

   D  e  c -   1   1

   E   V   (        `  c  r   )

EV 17x 14x 11x 8x 5x

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 8

Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary 

Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside FY2013E FY2013E FY2011-13E FY2013E FY2013E

(`) (`) (%) P/BV (x) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)

Bharti Airtel Neutral 354 - - 2.3 19.4 7.0 10.9 11.6Idea Cellular Neutral 92 - - 2.2 29.8 6.7 10.0 7.3

RCom Neutral 93 - - 0.5 16.2 (5.7) 3.3 2.8

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 9

Profit and Loss account (Consolidated, IFRS)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Net sales 36,962 41,847 59,467 71,601 80,983

Roaming and access charges 5,290 4,481 7,499 9,991 11,717

% of net sales 14.3 10.7 12.6 14.0 14.5

Network operating exp. 5,936 8,912 12,993 16,260 18,137

% of net sales 16.1 21.3 21.8 22.7 22.4

License fee 3,827 4,088 5,166 6,060 6,590

% of net sales 10.4 9.8 8.7 8.5 8.1

Other expenses 6,596 7,513 13,774 15,781 17,539

Total expenditure 21,649 24,993 39,432 48,092 53,982

% of net sales 58.6 59.7 66.3 67.2 66.7

EBITDA 15,313 16,854 20,035 23,509 27,001

% of net sales 41.4 40.3 33.7 32.8 33.3

Dep. and amortization 4,758 6,284 10,206 13,164 13,759

Non operating expenses 22 (18) 111 - -

EBIT 10,533 10,589 9,719 10,345 13,243

Interest charges 2,762 18 2,182 3,604 3,404

Other income, net 1,753 70 129 - -

Profit before tax 9,523 10,640 7,666 6,742 9,839

Provision for tax 662 1,345 1,778 2,043 2,952

% of PBT 6.9 12.6 23.2 30.3 30.0

PAT 8,862 9,295 5,887 4,698 6,887

Share in earnings of associate (71) - - (6) -

Minority interest 176 187 (148) (12) (40)Adj. PAT 8,615 9,108 6,035 4,705 6,927

EPS ( ` ) 22.7 24.0 15.9 12.4 18.2

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 10

Balance sheet (Consolidated, IFRS)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Liabilities

Share capital 1,898 1,899 1,899 1,899 1,899Reserves and surplus 28,496 40,295 46,868 51,129 57,611

Tot. shareholders’ funds 30,394 42,194 48,767 53,027 59,510

Minority interest 1,070 2,529 2,856 2,856 2,856

Secured loans 5,399 8,147 53,234 49,991 42,317

Unsecured loans 6,481 2,042 8,437 18,210 15,414

Total debt 11,880 10,190 61,671 68,201 57,731

Other liabilities 1,816 5,300 4,665 1,200 1,800

Total liabilities 45,161 60,212 117,959 125,284 121,897

Assets

Gross block 54,981 69,725 96,810 112,790 122,790

  Acc. depreciation 14,067 21,462 31,668 44,831 58,590

Net block 40,914 48,263 65,142 67,959 64,200

Goodwill 4,036 5,989 63,732 64,893 64,893

Oth. non-current assets - 1,825 1,918 2,893 3,103

Investments 3,805 5,236 622 1,315 1,315

Inventories 96 48 214 368 400

Sundry debtors 2,853 3,571 5,493 7,062 7,765

Cash and equivalents 1,115 2,532 958 1,234 2,088

Other current asst 6,552 2,381 3,921 5,521 6,921

Total current assets 10,615 8,532 10,585 14,184 17,174

Less: - current liab. 15,155 10,841 28,430 32,808 36,678

Less:- provisions 79 41 118 138 153

Net current assets (4,619) (2,350) (17,962) (18,762) (19,657)

Net deferred tax - 1,249 4,506 6,987 8,044

Miscellaneous exp. 1,024 - - - -

Total assets 45,161 60,212 117,959 125,284 121,897

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 11

Cash flow statement (Consolidated, IFRS)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Pretax profit from operations 7,771 10,571 7,536 6,742 9,839

Depreciation 4,758 6,284 10,206 13,164 13,759

Expenses (deferred)/written off - - - - -

Pre tax cash from operations 12,529 16,854 17,742 19,905 23,598

Other income/prior period ad 1,753 70 129 - -

Net cash from operations 14,282 16,924 17,872 19,905 23,598

Tax (662) (1,345) (1,778) (2,043) (2,952)

Cash profits 13,620 15,584 16,093 17,862 20,646

(Inc)/Dec in

Current assets (3,609) 3,501 (3,628) (3,323) (2,136)

Current liabilities 1,755 (4,352) 17,666 4,399 3,885

Net trade working capital (1,854) (851) 14,038 1,076 1,749

Cash flow from oper. actv. 11,766 14,733 30,131 18,937 22,395

(Inc)/Dec in fixed assets (14,331) (13,633) (27,085) (15,980) (10,000)

(Inc)/Dec in intangibles (12) (1,953) (57,743) (1,161) -

(Inc)/Dec in investments 1,014 (1,431) 4,614 (692) -

(Inc)/Dec in net dfr. tax asset - (1,249) (3,257) (2,481) (1,057)

(Inc)/Dec in minority interest 215 1,458 328 - -

(Inc)/Dec in oth. non-curr. ast. (514) (801) (94) (967) (170)

Cash flow from investing actv. (13,628) (17,608) (83,237) (21,282) (11,227)

Inc/(Dec) in debt 2,174 (1,690) 51,481 6,530 (10,470)

Inc/(Dec) in equity/premium 272 2,944 1,130 - -

Others 297 3,484 (635) (3,465) 600Dividends 444 444 444 444 444

Cash flow from financing actv. 2,299 4,293 51,532 2,621 (10,314)

Cash generated/(utilized) 437 1,418 (1,575) 276 854

Cash at start of the year 678 1,115 2,532 958 1,234

Cash at end of the year 1,115 2,532 958 1,234 2,088

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 8, 2012 12

Key ratios

Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Valuation ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 15.6 14.7 22.3 28.6 19.4P/CEPS 10.0 8.7 8.3 7.5 6.5

P/BVPS 4.4 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.3

Dividend yield 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

EV/Sales 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.3

EV/EBITDA 9.2 8.1 9.7 8.5 7.0

EV/Total assets 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5

Per share data (`)EPS 22.7 24.0 15.9 12.4 18.2

Cash EPS 35.3 40.6 42.8 47.1 54.5

Dividend 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Book value 80.1 111.2 128.5 139.7 156.8

DuPont analysis

Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7

Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7

EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2

  Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7

Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.0

Operating ROE 28.3 21.6 12.4 8.9 11.6

Return ratios (%)

RoCE (pre-tax) 23.3 17.6 8.2 8.3 10.9

  Angel RoIC 29.1 22.8 18.5 17.9 24.

RoE 28.3 21.6 12.4 8.9 11.6

Turnover ratios (x)

  Asset turnover (fixed assets) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7

Receivables days 28 28 34 36 35

Payable days 256 158 263 249 248

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 Bharti Airtel | 3QFY2012 Result Update

F b 8 2012 13

 Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Bharti Airtel

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

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