12
1 Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research Vol. 6 / 11-12 June 18, 2011 Buy CMP: 380.35 Target: 450.0 BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. Upside: 18.3 % Horizon: 12 M Analyst: Atul Kanwar Phone: +91 11 66272300 Ext: 651 Email: [email protected] Head of Research: Alok Agarwala E-mail: [email protected] Key Data Sector Telecom Services Face value (Rs.) 5.0 52-week high/low (Rs.) 400.1 / 259.5 Market cap (Rs. cr.) 144439.1 Book value (Rs.) 124.8 Price / book value 3.0 PE ratio (TTM) 24.5 Market cap / sales 2.4 Dividend (%) 20 Average daily volume (1 Y) 5579290 Beta 0.8 1 year return (%) 42.4 Shareholding Pattern Source: BSE. As on Mar 31, 2010 Stock Performance About the Company Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5 th largest integrated telecom operator in the world. It has presence in all the 22 telecom circles in India and operations in Srilanka, Bangladesh and Africa. The company provides its wireless services under the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) technology. It also offers broadband, IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) & Digital TV services. The company had an aggregate of 220.9 million subscribers as of March 31, 2011 including 211.9 million mobile services customers. Bharti Airtel gives an integrated suite of telecom solutions to its enterprise customers, in addition to providing long distance connectivity both nationally and internationally. All these services are rendered under a unified brand ‘Airtel. The company also deploys, owns and manages passive infrastructure pertaining to telecom operations under its subsidiary Bharti Infratel Ltd that also owns 42% of Indus Towers Ltd. Investment Rationale India is the world’s fastest growing mobile telecom services market India is the fastest growing wireless market in the world and has the second largest mobile services connections after China. In India, the customer base of the mobile telecom service providers increased by 20.2 million in March 2011, taking the total number of mobile subscriptions to more than 811.6 million. This includes 66.3% urban and 33.7% rural subscribers. The total telecom customer base has increased to 846.3 million and the overall tele-density in the country has reached 70.9. The industry is expected to reach a size of Rs 344,921 cr by 2012 at a growth rate of over 26%. India is expected to have 1.16 billion mobile subscribers by 2013 and it is expected to overtake China. 3G services to be a growth driver Bharti Airtel had bagged 3G spectrum in 13 out of the 22 telecom circles through an auction held last year, for Rs 12,295 cr. These 13 circles have 65-70% of the company’s 2G subscriber base. The company has already launched 3G services in many cities. The initial response has been overwhelming and Airtel is the market leader with 3 million 3G customers out of the total 9 million users of this service. The company plans to offer services like video call, live streaming of video, high speed internet, mobile TV etc.in the beginning. This service, a premium offering is expected to stabilize the company’s ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) though the voice telephony and SMS are being provided by the company at prices that are at par with 2G. The non- voice revenue contributes ~12% to the total revenues in India, compared to 25-30% in developed markets and it is expected to grow in the years going forward. For Bharti Airtel, the share of value added revenues in the total revenues increased to 15.0% in Q4FY11 compared to 13.8% in Q3FY11. 3G services would further increase the Value Added Services (VAS) share in mobility revenue. The company plans to generate one fourth of its sales from non voice revenues over the next two or three years. This shift to non-voice and also non-SMS revenues is already visible as SMS services that used to contribute 3/4 th to the non voice revenue a year back, just contributes 1/4 th now. 68.3% 17.2% 8.7% 5.8% Promoter FII DII Others 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Bharti Airtel NSE

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Page 1: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

1

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

Vol. 6 / 11-12 June 18, 2011

Buy CMP: 380.35 Target: 450.0

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. Upside: 18.3 % Horizon: 12 M

Analyst: Atul Kanwar

Phone: +91 11 66272300 Ext: 651

Email: [email protected]

Head of Research: Alok Agarwala

E-mail: [email protected]

Key Data

Sector Telecom Services

Face value (Rs.) 5.0

52-week high/low (Rs.) 400.1 / 259.5

Market cap (Rs. cr.) 144439.1

Book value (Rs.) 124.8

Price / book value 3.0

PE ratio (TTM) 24.5

Market cap / sales 2.4

Dividend (%) 20

Average daily volume (1 Y) 5579290

Beta 0.8

1 year return (%) 42.4

Shareholding Pattern

Source: BSE. As on Mar 31, 2010

Stock Performance

About the Company

Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated

telecom operator in the world. It has presence in all the 22 telecom circles in India and operations

in Srilanka, Bangladesh and Africa. The company provides its wireless services under the GSM

(Global System for Mobile Communication) technology. It also offers broadband, IPTV (Internet

Protocol Television) & Digital TV services. The company had an aggregate of 220.9 million

subscribers as of March 31, 2011 including 211.9 million mobile services customers. Bharti Airtel

gives an integrated suite of telecom solutions to its enterprise customers, in addition to providing

long distance connectivity both nationally and internationally. All these services are rendered

under a unified brand ‘Airtel’. The company also deploys, owns and manages passive

infrastructure pertaining to telecom operations under its subsidiary Bharti Infratel Ltd that also

owns 42% of Indus Towers Ltd.

Investment Rationale

India is the world’s fastest growing mobile telecom services market

India is the fastest growing wireless market in the world and has the second largest mobile services

connections after China. In India, the customer base of the mobile telecom service providers

increased by 20.2 million in March 2011, taking the total number of mobile subscriptions to more

than 811.6 million. This includes 66.3% urban and 33.7% rural subscribers. The total telecom

customer base has increased to 846.3 million and the overall tele-density in the country has

reached 70.9. The industry is expected to reach a size of Rs 344,921 cr by 2012 at a growth rate of

over 26%. India is expected to have 1.16 billion mobile subscribers by 2013 and it is expected to

overtake China.

3G services to be a growth driver

Bharti Airtel had bagged 3G spectrum in 13 out of the 22 telecom circles through an auction held

last year, for Rs 12,295 cr. These 13 circles have 65-70% of the company’s 2G subscriber base.

The company has already launched 3G services in many cities. The initial response has been

overwhelming and Airtel is the market leader with 3 million 3G customers out of the total 9

million users of this service. The company plans to offer services like video call, live streaming of

video, high speed internet, mobile TV etc.in the beginning. This service, a premium offering is

expected to stabilize the company’s ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) though the voice

telephony and SMS are being provided by the company at prices that are at par with 2G. The non-

voice revenue contributes ~12% to the total revenues in India, compared to 25-30% in developed

markets and it is expected to grow in the years going forward. For Bharti Airtel, the share of value

added revenues in the total revenues increased to 15.0% in Q4FY11 compared to 13.8% in

Q3FY11. 3G services would further increase the Value Added Services (VAS) share in mobility

revenue. The company plans to generate one fourth of its sales from non voice revenues over the

next two or three years. This shift to non-voice and also non-SMS revenues is already visible as

SMS services that used to contribute 3/4th to the non voice revenue a year back, just contributes

1/4th now.

68.3%

17.2%

8.7%

5.8%

Promoter FII DII Others

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Bharti Airtel NSE

Page 2: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

2

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

In Q4FY11, Telemedia services subscribers

have grown to 3.3 million and those of Digital

TV services to 5.7 million, a growth of 1%

and 15% QoQ respectively. Airtel’s

subscriber base in Bangladesh and Srilanka

grew ~10% QoQ to 5.5 million as on Mar 31,

2011.

The total number of towers under Bharti

Infratel has grown by 7.3% in the last one

year.

The revenues from passive infrastructure

services were Rs 2201.0 cr in Q4FY11, as

compared to Rs 1945.9 cr. in Q4FY10, a

growth of 13.1% YoY. The operating profit

showed a growth of 12.9% at Rs 815.3 cr, up

from Rs 722.4 cr for the same period.

Airtel’s fast growing customer base

Bharti Airtel crossed the significant milestone of 200 million customers for all territories during

the quarter ended December, 2010. The company’s total subscriber base has grown by 65.8% in

the last calendar year. For March 2011, the company led other mobile service providers to add 3.2

million users in India, taking its mobile service subscriber base to 162.2 million in India.

Subscriber base: quarterly growth

The advantage of passive infrastructure services

Bharti Infratel: Bharti Infratel, the company’s subsidiary has 32,792 towers across 18 states and

11 telecom circles at the end of Q4FY11. The sharing factor for Bharti Infratel’s towers for the

latest quarter was 1.73 times.

Bharti Infratel (standalone): number of towers & sharing factor

Source: Company

Indus Towers: Indus Towers is a joint venture between Bharti Infratel, Vodafone and Idea It

provides infrastructure services in 16 service areas. Sharing factor for Indus in Q4FY11 was 1.83

times. Indus benefits from assured tenancy from its promoters while Bharti Airtel benefits from the

reduced capital expenditure, revenue maximization and the embedded value of the shareholding.

Indus Towers has recently achieved a significant milestone of 200,000 tenancies. Further,

Vodafone Essar is contemplating selling around 7,000 towers with at least one tenant each to

Bharti Infratel or Indus Towers for a price between Rs 3200-3500 cr.

137.0

183.4 194.8

207.8 220.9

9.3%

33.9%

6.2% 6.7% 6.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

Subscriber base (in millions) % Growth (QoQ)

29,806

30,568

31,196

31,831

32,424

32,792

1.57

1.62

1.65 1.65

1.68

1.73

1.56

1.58

1.60

1.62

1.64

1.66

1.68

1.70

1.72

1.74

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

32,000

32,500

33,000

33,500

Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

Total number of towers Sharing factor

Page 3: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

3

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

Indus is the largest independent tower

company in the world having about 108,586

towers under its management as on Mar 31,

2011.

The total number of towers under Indus has

grown by 5.5% in the last one year.

The broadband connectivity has found the

pride of place in the government’s to-do list

because studies have shown that for every

10% increase in internet penetration, GDP

climbs by 1.38%.

Indus Towers: shareholding

Source: Company

Indus Towers: number of towers & sharing factor

Source: Company

Opportunities in the telemedia services

Bharti Airtel has a large presence in the telemedia services that include fixed line, broadband & the

newly introduced IPTV. Telemedia services had a customer base of 3.3 million as of March 31,

2011. Total net additions in subscriber base was ~39,000 in Q4FY11. ARPU for telemedia services

was Rs 934 per month. These services contributed Rs 917.8 cr in Q4FY11 to the overall revenues

of the company and had an EBITDA margin of 45.2%. Airtel Fixed line and DSL (Digital

Subscriber Line) was available in 87 top cities in India as on Dec 31, 2011. Broadband penetration

in India is approximately 1% with a mere 11.9 million broadband connections. Airtel is expected

to benefit from the expected high growth in the telemedia services in the coming years as the

broadband revolution is forecasted to follow the wireless revolution in India.

New greenfield entrants facing significant challenge

Greenfield telecom service providers are facing a tough time with operators like Uninor, Sistema

Shyam, EtisalatDB, Videocon, Stel and Loop Telecom garnering a miniscule subscriber market

share. It looks inevitable that in the long run, merger with the larger companies remains the most

probable outcome for most of these operators. Bharti is likely to benefit from tapering competitive

pressure on the domestic front, though it is tough to put an exact timeline to the occurrence of this

event.

42%

42%

16%

Bharti Infratel Vodafone Idea

102,696 102,938

104,901

106,438

107,789 108,586

1.66 1.71

1.75

1.78

1.80

1.83

1.64

1.66

1.68

1.70

1.72

1.74

1.76

1.78

1.80

1.82

1.84

99,000

100,000

101,000

102,000

103,000

104,000

105,000

106,000

107,000

108,000

109,000

110,000

Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

Total number of towers Sharing factor

Page 4: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

4

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

The total subscriber base in Africa grew 4.9%

to 44.206 million in Q4FY11 from 42.124

million in Q3FY11.

Airtel only covers 16 countries and ~44% of

Africa’s population.

Only one out of three persons owns a mobile

in Africa, compared with seven out of ten in

India.

The Africa opportunity

The acquisition of Zain’s African business has given geographical diversification to Bharti Airtel.

Bharti is targeting 100 million subscribers by the end of FY2013, from its business in this

continent. It plans to increase its revenues to US$ 5 billion and EBITDA to US$ 2 billion by the

end of the next financial year. The rest of the African countries apart from that covered by Zain,

are presently untouched by Airtel and present a huge opportunity in the future. The turnaround in

Bharti’s Africa business has begun. Despite being involved in a price war in several African

countries, revenues from Africa operations stood at US$ 924 million for Q4FY11 up 1.4% QoQ.

The EBITDA stood at US$ 224 million. The EBITDA margin was at 24.2%. The net profit stood

at US$ -92 million. The operating free cash flows were at US$ -158 million. The company has

increased its market share marginally in Africa in the March 2011 quarter. The ARPU came down

from US$ 7.3 to US$ 7.2 for the same period and the Average Minutes of Usage per user went

down from 120 to 115. Bharti Airtel also has 3G licenses in 9 out of the 16 African countries it

operates in and offers this service in 8 countries. Airtel Zambia intends to launch 3G network in

the near future. The company is expecting more licenses in Africa in the next 6 months.

Airtel’s Africa coverage – population in million (2009)

Source: Company

Comparison: Airtel’s India & Africa business

Particulars India Africa

Mobile Penetration 70.9% 45%

Average Competitors 10 to 12 3 to 5

Business Model High usage, low pricing Low usage, high pricing

Minutes of Usage 449 115

ARPU (US$) ~ $ 4.3 ~ $ 7.2

ARPM (US cents) ~1 cent 6.2 cents

Source: BCCIR, Company

575

450

Airtel Africa

Non Airtel Africa

Page 5: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

5

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

The total minutes on network have increased

by 32% in Q4FY11 compared to Q4FY10.

The national average of active subscribers for

mobile service operators stands at 70.3%.

Airtel has ~20% more subscribers than its

closest competitors, Reliance Communication

& Vodafone. However, in CY2010 while

Bharti’s Indian mobile subscriber base grew

by 28.3%, Aircel showed a growth of 61.7%,

Tata’s mobile business grew by 46.9%, Idea

by 42%, Vodafone by 36% and Reliance

Communications by 34%. The total industry

growth was 35.3%.

Increasing Total Minutes on Network

Total minutes on network (million minutes)

Source: Company

Maximum number of active customers

According to a recent TRAI report, Bharti Airtel has 91.8% active customers. Idea cellular has

90% active subscribers followed by Vodafone Essar at 76%, 66-68% for Reliance

Communications, 57% for BSNL, 49.7% for Tata’s GSM business and 46.5% for their CDMA

business. New telecom service providers such as EtisalatDB, Stel, Uninor and Sistema Shyam

have less than 50% active customers. MTNL is at the bottom of the list with 35.6% active

subscribers in GSM and 27% in CDMA.

Focus on rural demand

Bharti Airtel has shifted focus to the rural demand in India. Revenue growth going forward for the

company, apart from 3G and Africa, would be driven by the rural demand in India. Rural India

constitutes 33.7% of India’s overall wireless subscriber base. Rural penetration remains low in

India at less than 25%. Bharti Airtel at present has a high rural market share of ~25%.

Peer Analysis

Telecom service providers: mobile subscriber base (million) – March 2011

Source: TRAI

Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

182,001

206,213 216,373

227,262 240,245

162.2

135.7 134.5

91.6 89.5 89.1

54.8 54.2

Page 6: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

6

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

One out of every five mobile customer is a

Airtel subscriber.

ARPU of the mobile service providers has

been declining steadily.

Bharti Airtel has shown a steady decline in

ARPM due to the tariff wars in the mobile

services industry.

Mobile service providers: customer market share (%) – March 2011

Source: TRAI

Mobile service providers: ARPU (Rs) comparison

Source: Respective Company

20.0%

16.7% 16.6%

11.3% 11.0% 11.0%

6.8% 6.6%

Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

215 202 198 194

182 167 168

161

130 122

111 107

Airtel Idea RelCom

Page 7: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

7

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

Multiple SIM usage has impacted the MOU’s

of the players in the wireless telecom industry.

Bharti Airtel enjoys far superior PBIDT &

APAT margins than its peers. It also has a

much higher RONW than its competitors.

Mobile number portability is both a concern

and an opportunity for the company.

Mobile service providers: MOU (min) comparison

Source: Respective Company

Telecom service providers: comparison (consolidated financials in Rs cr.)

Company

Net

Sales APAT PBIDTM% APATM% PE P/BV P/S

Mkt

Cap

Bharti Airtel 59467.2 5904.9 33.9 9.9 24.5 3.0 2.4 144439.1

Reliance Comm. 22430.4 1505.8 40.5 6.7 13.0 0.4 0.9 19628.9

Idea Cellular 15503.2 898.7 24.5 5.8 28.5 2.1 1.7 25651.5

Tata Comm. 11932.0 -775.2 12.0 -6.5 0.0 1.7 0.5 5855.3

Tata Tele (Mah) 2303.1 80.2 50.8 3.5 38.8 -4.5 1.4 3111.4 P/E, P/BV, P/S & Mkt Cap figures are as on June 17, 2011. Net Sales, APAT, PBIDTM (%), APATM (%) statistics are for FY2011.

Key Concerns

Mobile Number Portability (MNP)

While some subscibers of the company can migrate to other telecom service providers attracted by

lower prices, others can get attracted to the company due to its record of providing excellent

service. MNP service that was launched in Haryana on Nov 25, 2010 is available throughout India

since Jan 20, 2011.

Temporary setback to telecom tower business

Telecom towers which act as emitting points for cell phone signals, have not been getting added

tenancy. Launch of 3G services and expansion plans of new telecom operators like Uninor,

Videocon, Loop Telecom, Etisalat etc. were expected to create a surge in tower tenancy. But

uncertainty over license conditions for new operators has put network rollouts on hold, thus

affecting the growth of the tower business temporarily.

TRAI recommendation for additional 2G spectrum payment

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has issued a recommendation that companies

holding over 6.2 MHz of spectrum or radio frequencies would have to pay for the additional

spectrum from April 2010 onwards. Accordingly Airtel would be required to pay Rs 4,000 cr. if

these recommendations are accepted by the government.

Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

480 454 449 449

415 394 401 397

295 276 251 241

Airtel Idea RelCom

Page 8: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

8

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

Due to the new telecom service providers

offering rock bottom rates in order to entice

customers from the established players, all

the entrenched players except Tata

Teleservices have lost market share in the

last one year period.

Decline in ARPU’s is mainly because of the

intense competition, resulting in steep fall in

mobile rates and also due to the company’s

thrust on the rural customers. In Q4FY11,

Bharti Airtel India’s Average MOU (Minutes

of Use) per user was 449 minutes, down -4%

YoY from 468 minutes in Q4FY10. ARPM

(Average Rate Per Minute) was at 43.1 paise,

down -8% from 47 paise in the last quarter of

FY10. ARPM is expected to improve going

forward due to the increased use of 3G

services and the industry players hiking the

low unsustainable 2G tariffs.

Bharti Airtel has already launched 3G

services in many cities including Delhi &

Mumbai garnering ~3 million 3G subscribers.

The company is a market leader in this

segment also. This represents a market share

of appox. 30.0% out of a total ~10 mn 3G

subscribers in India.

Decline in India Customer Market Share (CMS)

Decline in customer market share (in million)

Source: Company

Decline in ARPU’s (India)

ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) - Rs

Source: Company

Conclusion

India is the fastest growing telecom market in the world. The mobile subscriber base of Bharti

Airtel in India is growing at a scorching pace of ~3 million subscribers per month. The company

also has the largest number of active customers (~92%) among all mobile telecom operators. The

company is all set to exploit the 3G opportunity in India, as it launches these premium services

across all 13 circles that it had bagged in the auction. This is expected to accelerate the increase in

company’s non voice revenue. Bharti’s Africa operations have been stabilizing with subscribers

growing steadily and its market share in the continent improving. The company is also focusing on

rural customers. While one out of every 5 subscriber nationally is a Airtel customer, in case of

rural customers this ratio is one out of four. 3G, Africa operations and the rural markets in India

are going to be the growth drivers for the company going ahead. The mobile rates have already

reached rock bottom with the new players running out of steam. This presents acquisition

opportunities for Bharti in the near future. The expected broadband revolution is set to boost the

revenues of the company’s telemedia services arm, going further. Though Bharti’s ARPU’s have

been declining, they are expected to stabilize at the present levels.

Bharti Airtel has a market capitalization of Rs 144439.1 cr. and is trading at a share price of Rs.

380.35. The consolidated TTM EPS is Rs. 15.6 translating into a TTM PE of 24.5. The price to

book value stands at 3.0. The stock is an attractive buy considering the growth prospects of the

industry as well as the company.

We recommend a “BUY” on the stock with an investment horizon of 12 months and target

price of Rs. 450.

Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

22.7% 21.8% 21.5% 20.8% 20.3% 20.0%

Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

230 220

215

202 198 194

Page 9: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

9

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

A Snapshot of Airtel’s World

Sno. Country Remarks

1. India Airtel is the largest telecom service provider in India with 220.9 million subscribers at the end of March 2011.

2. Bangladesh Airtel Bangladesh had about 3.2 million customers as on Dec 31, 2010.

3. Sri Lanka Airtel Lanka that had started operations on Jan 12, 2009, had ~1.8 million customers at the end of last year.

4. Burkina Faso Airtel Burkina Faso is the dominant player with 1.43 million customers and a 50% market share.

5. Chad Airtel Chad is the market leader with 69% market share.

6. Democratic Republic of Congo -

7. Gabon Airtel Gabon has 829,000 customers and it the leader with a market share of 61%.

8. Ghana Airtel Ghana had about 1.76 million customers at the end of CY2010.

9. Kenya Airtel Kenya is the second largest operator in the country with 4 million customers.

10. Madagascar Airtel is the second largest telecom service provider with 1.4 million customers and a 39% market share.

11. Malawi Airtel Malawi is the largest operator with a 72% market share.

12. Niger Airtel Niger is the market leader with a 68% market share.

13. Nigeria Airtel Nigeria is the no. 3 player in the country with 15.8 million subscribers.

14. Republic of Congo Airtel Congo is the market leader with 55% market share.

15. Seychelles Airtel is the leading player with over 55% market share.

16. Sierra Leone Airtel Sierra Leone is the leading mobile service operator in the country.

17. Tanzania Airtel Tanzania is the market leader with a 38% market share.

18. Uganda Airtel Uganda is the no. 2 player with a market share of 38%.

19. Zambia Bharti Airtel controlled Celtel Zambia is the top mobile phone company with a 70% market share.

Page 10: BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. - Just Trade Airtel.pdf · 2011-06-20 · Bharti Airtel is the largest wireless service provider in our country and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator

Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

10

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

• Largest telecom opeartor in India: Bharti Airtel is the largest telecom service provider in India and the 5th largest integrated telecom operator in the world.

• Strong customer base growth: Bharti Airtel's subscriber base has grown from 137.0 mn in Mar 2010 to 220.9 mn in Mar 2011, a phenomenal growth of 61.2%.

• 3G service launch: The telecom operator has bagged 3G spectrum in 13 out of the 22 circles in India and plans to offer these services in all these circles (covering 65-70% of its subscriber base) by the end of March 2011.

• Large passive infrastructure: Bharti has 32,792 towers under Bharti Infratel and 108,586 towers unders Indus at the end of FY2011.

• Increase in total minutes on network: The total minutes on network have increased from 182,001 million minutes in Q4FY10 to 240,245 mn mins in Q4FY11.

• Maximum number of active customers: Bharti Airtel has ~92% active customers, the maximum in the industry.

• Focus on rural sales: The company enjoys one-fourth of the rural market share and is focused on increasing it further.

Weaknesses

• Decline in customer market share: Bharti Airtel's customer market share has declined to 20.0% in March 2011 compared to 21.8% in March 2010. However, all the major telecom service providers except Tata Teleservices have taken a hit on their market share during this period due to the new greenfield operators offering rock bottom prices

• Decline in ARPU's: Due to the company's focus on the rural markets, ARPU's have declined from Rs 220 in Q4FY10 to Rs 194 in Q4FY11.

Opportunities

• India is the fastest growth mobile services market in the world: The mobile connections in India increased by ~20 million in March 2011 to reach 811.6 million. The high growth is expected to continue, going further.

• New subcriber additions through MNP: Bharti Airtel has the opportunity of attracting subscribers of other telecom service providers after the launch of Mobile Number Portability (MNP) recently, as the company has a reputation of providing excellent services.

• Future potential of telemedia services: The government has a huge stake in the growth of these services as a 10% growth in the broadband services results in ~1.38% growth in the GDP of the country. This presents a good opportunity for Airtel in the coming years.

• Opportunities in Africa: Airtel is the dominant player is most of the 16 Afrcan countries that it operates in. The remaining countries in the continent, where the company has no presence provide an opportunity for the future.

• Possibilty of acquistions: The new greenfield operators have not been successful in acquiring a decent revenue and customer market share, inspite of offering lower prices. This may lead to an opportunity for the bigger plaerys like Bharti to acquire these businesses in the future.

Threats

• MNP can be a double edged sword: Other telecom service providers, especillay the new greenfield entrants could try to entice Airtel's customers through rock bottom prices.

• Temperory setback to telecom tower growth: Due to the uncertainty faced by the new operators over license conditions, the new operators have put their network rollout on hold, thus affecting the tower business.

• TRAI recommendation: Airtel would have to pay Rs 4,000 cr. extra, if the TRAI recommendation of charging those telecom companies that hold more 2G spectrum than 6.2 Mhz (from April 2010 onwards), are accepted.

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Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

11

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

Financials

Income Statement (Quarterly): Standalone

Rs. Cr.

Particulars Q4FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY10 QoQ (%) YoY (%)

Net Sales 16265.4 15756.0 10749.1 3.2 51.3

Total Income 16304.2 15781.8 10806.1 3.3 50.9

Total Expenditure 10821.2 10774.6 6568.8 0.4 64.7

PBIDT 5483.0 5007.2 4237.3 9.5 29.4

PBIDT Margin % 33.7 31.8 39.4

Interest 682.6 747.0 0.0 -8.6 -

Depreciation 2970.2 2710.7 1695.3 9.6 75.2

Tax 499.6 336.6 341.5 48.4 46.3

APAT 1330.6 1212.9 2102.9 9.7 -36.7

APATM (%) 8.2 7.7 19.6

Financials (Annual): Standalone

Rs. Cr.

Particulars 201103 201003 200903 200803 200703 200603

5 yr CAGR

%

Share Capital 1898.8 1898.8 1898.2 1897.9 1895.9 1893.9

Networth 39614.8 28984.8 21664.4 11453.6 7340.2

Capital Employed

53020.5 43872.6 32338.0 16964.3 12234.3

Debt 10288.1 13517.1 9601.7 5285.9 4772.8

CWIP

2435.9 4143.7 3570.0 2470.9 2436.5

Inventory 48.4 96.3 114.2 91.2 38.1

Sundry Debtors

3182.5 2899.8 2839.8 1871.2 1114.0

Cash & Bank Balance 2578.6 2766.0 703.4 852.1 351.1

Revenues 59467.2 41829.5 37352.1 27012.2 18420.2 11664.1 38.5

Total Income 59601.8 43100.3 37949.6 27372.3 18598.7 11771.9 38.3

Total Expenditure 39431.8 25369.0 24182.7 16203.3 11192.3 7714.9 38.6

PBIDT 20170.0 17731.4 13766.8 11168.9 7406.4 4057.0 37.8

Interest 2181.3 636.5 503.1 386.0 279.4 229.6 56.9

Depreciation 10206.6 6199.4 4672.8 3471.4 2448.7 1481.9 47.1

PAT 5904.9 9361.5 8044.2 6495.4 4110.3 2054.6 23.5

Cash Flow from Operating Activities 15456.5 13711.6 12324.4 8466.4 4869.9

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

-14703.1 -15175.4 -18432.7 -8342.5 -5302.9

Cash Flow from Financing Activities -1374.9 2064.8 5998.7 377.1 369.8

Free Cash Flows

2797.4 -3389.6 -5109.8 -3096.5 -2473.3

Dividend % 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPS - Adjusted (Rs.) 15.9 24.1 20.7 16.8 10.7 5.4

Debt-Equity Ratio 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8

RoNW %

27.3 31.8 39.2 43.7 34.8

Asset Turnover Ratio 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1

PBIDT Margin % 33.9 42.4 36.9 41.3 40.2 34.8

PAT Margin % 9.9 22.4 21.5 24.0 22.3 17.6

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Stock Idea – Bharti Airtel Ltd.

12

Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research

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