Bf00156400] Rod Aya -- Theories of Revolution Reconsidered (1)

7/29/2019 Bf00156400] Rod Aya -- Theories of Revolution Reconsidered (1)

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T H E O R I E S O F R E V O L U T I O N R E C O N S I D ER E D :

C o n t r a s t i n g M o d e l s o f C o l l e c t iv e V i o l e n c e

ROD AYA

O n e m u s t s t a r t w i t h e r ro r a n d c o n v e r t i t i n t o t r u t h .I . e ., o n e m u s t e x p o s e t h e s o u r c e s o f er r or , o t h e r w i s e h e a r i n g t h e t r u t h d o e sn o t b e n e f i t u s. I t c a n n o t p e n e t r a t e i f s o m e t h i n g e ls e o c c u p i e s i t s p la c e.T o c o n v i n c e s o m e o n e o f t h e t r u th , i t is n o t e n o u g h t o st a t e t h e tr u t h , r a t h e ro n e m u s t f i n d t h e w a y f r o m e rr o r t o t r u th .

Ludwig W i t tge ns t e in lJus t ove r a de c a de ago , La w r e nc e S tone c a ppe d a n e l e ga n t e s say on " Th e or i e so f R e vo lu t ion" w i th t he a n t i c ipa t ion tha t soc i a l t he o r y wou ld inc r e a s ing lye n l igh te n h i s to r i c a l r e se a r c h , a nd mode r n h i s to r iog r a phy he lp c on f i r m o rre fu te m ore da r ing theo re t ica l conjec tures . 2 S ince the n , severa l fine wo rks ofh is tor ica l and co m para t ive ana lys is have bee n publ i she d on th e or ig ins andou tc o m e s o f r e vo lu t iona r y s i t ua tions . 3 As y e t , ho we ve r , no ge ne ra l t he o r yf e a t u re d i n S t o n e ' s r e vi ew h as b e e n e m p l o y e d i n a n y c a p a c it y b e y o n d d e c o ra -t i v e f o o t n o t i n g b y n o t e w o r t h y s t u d e n t s o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y h i s t o r y , p a s t o rp r e se n t . A t m os t , one o r a no the r ge ne ra l t he o r y ha s se r ved to p r ov ide c a t c hy ,con ven ien t headings for top ica l pa r t i t ion s in h is tor ica l na r ra t ive . 4 N or , f ro mthe i r s ide , have au th ors o f genera l theor ies ventu red to te s t the i r ideas aga ins twe l l - r e se a r c he d b loc s o f h i s to r i c a l da t a . I n s t e a d , t he y ha ve be e n c on te n t t or e la y o d d b i ts o f h i s t o r y a n a n e c d o t a l " e v i d e n c e " f o r t h e h y p o t h e s e s a t h a n d .And wh e n po l i ti c a l a na lys ts ha ve sough t t o e xp la in ho w suc ce s s fu l re vo lu t ion -a rie s p r e va i l e d , t he y ha ve p r e f e r r e d to w innow the wr i ti ngs o f mov e m e n ts t rateg is ts r a th e r th an con sul t the soc ial sc ience mode l -bui lde r s , sTh i s m i sma tc h be tw e e n ge ne ra l t he o r i e s a nd spe c i fi c r e vo lu t ions is no a c c ide n t .The theor ies themse lves a re a t f au l t , fo r r easons th is paper se ts ou t to c la r i fy .

Anthro pology-S ociology Center, Univers ity of Am sterdam .Copyright 9 1979 by R od Aya.


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4 0Be c a us e t he a r gum e n t is l ong a nd w i nd i ng , how e ve r , i t m a y he l p f ir s t t o s um -m a r i z e t he p r i nc i pa l po i n t s o f c on c e r n . T he pa p e r f a ll s i n t o f ou r pa r t s . P a r t Im a k e s a p o l e m i c a l r es u m ~ o f w h a t ' s w r o n g w i t h t h e o r ie s o f r e v o lu t i o n ;s tr e ss e s t he ne e d t o ge t a w a y f r o m gue s sw or k a b ou t s uppos e d " r e vo l u t i ona r ys t a te s o f m i nd " i n s oc i e t y a t l a rge , a nd t o r e f oc us a na l y s is on s h i ft ing po l i t ic a lp o w e r b a l an c e s b e t w e e n m o b i l i z e d g r o u p s c o n t en d i n g f o r c o n t r o l o f t h e s t a tea nd pub l i c po l i c y ; a nd c onc l ude s w i t h a hom i l y on t he i nd i s pe ns a b i l i t y o ft he o r y t o r e s e a r c h on r e vo l u t ions . I f s om e r e a de r s f i nd th i s l a st t oo t e d i ou s l yfami l i a r , t hey wi l l ( I hope) indulge the exces ses of an appren t i ce h i s tor i ant ra ined in a l a rge ly an t i - the ore t i ca l d i sc ip l ine . Pa r t I I i s an excursu s on de f in i -t ion , a rgu ing tha t the fa i lu re of genera l theor i es to exp la in pa r t i cu la r revolu t ion ss t em s i n p a r t f r o m t h e h a b i t o f d e m a r c a t i n g t h e e x p l i c a n d u m " r e v o l u t i o n "a long nonpol i t i ca l l i nes . Spec i f i ca l ly , i n de f in ing revolu t ion by e i the r thei n t en t ions of c e r t a i n c on t e nde r s o r by t he s oc i al a nd i n s ti t u t i ona l o u t c o m e -t he c ha nge s o f s t a t e a nd s oc i e t y w r o ugh t i n t he c ou r s e o f re vo l u t i on a r y c on f l i c to r a f t e r w a r d s by t he w i nn ing pa r t i e s - one obs c u r e s the po l i t ic a l c r ux o fr e vo l u t ions : na m e l y , a n op e n - e nde d s i t ua ti on o f v i o l e n t s tr ugg le w he r e i n ones e t o f c on t e nde r s a t t e m p t s ( s uc c e s s f u ll y o r uns uc c e s s f u l ly ) t o d i sp l a ce a no t h e rf r o m s t at e p o w e r . H e n c e , I a r g u e , in t e n t i o n s a n d o u t c o m e s s h o u l d b e r e g a rd e da s w h a t t he y a c t ua l l y ar e - h i s to r i c a l va r i a b le s - a nd t he o r y f oc us e d on t heo c c u r r e n c e o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y si tuat ions o f " d u a l p o w e r " o r " m u l t i p l e s o v e r -e i gn t y . " T h i s m e a n s p l ac i ng t he w e i gh t o f a na l y s is on , n o t " s t a t e s o f m i nd , "bu t ba s i c po l i t i c a l p r oc e s s e s , s oc i a l pow e r ba l a nc e s , a nd c on t e s t s f o r c on t r o lo f t he s t a te . H o w ge ne r a l t he o r i e s t ha t i gno r e t h i s p r e c e p t c om e t o g r i e f i s t hes ub j e c t o f P a r t I I I , a n e x t e nde d c r i ti que o f l e a d ing s t ud i e s by J a m e s C . D a v ie s ,t he F e i e r a be nds , T e d R ob e r t G ur r , N e i l J . S m e l se r , a nd Cha l m e r s J ohn s on . T heba s i c m ode l on w h i c h t he s e t he o r i e s r e s t i s a f a m i l i a r m e t a pho r , a t t r a c t i vea nd m i s l e a d i ng , w h i c h l i ke ns r e vo l u t i ons a nd po l i t i c a l v i o l e nc e t o na t u r a ld i sa s te r s - e xp l o s i ons , e r up t i ons , e a r t hqua ke s . I n s t e a d o f c onc e i v ing r e vo l ta nd r e vo l u t i on a s po l i t ic a l ph e no m e na - v i c ious bu t p r i nc i p l e d f i gh ts ove rpo l i c y a nd r e s ou r c e s - t he vo l c a n i c m ode l ( a s w e m a y c a ll i t ) de p i c t s t he m a si r ra t iona l e rup t ions of ind i sc r im ina te aggres s ion . Thu s , fo r reasons spe ll ed ou ti n s om e de t a i l be l ow , t he vo l c a n i c m ode l ( t oge t he r w i t h l og i c a l p r ob l e m s i neach of the theor i es i t spawns ) s t ee rs re sea rch ana lys i s down a b l ind a l l ey . Ana l t e r na t i ve w a y o f s e e i ng r e vo l u t i ons a nd popu l a r p r o t e s t i s s ke t c he d i n P a r tI V , w h i c h ou t l i ne s a po l i ti c a l m o de l o f m a s s m o b i l i z a t i on a nd s ugge s ts p r o -v i s iona l theses to gu ide resea rch . T ake n b y i t s e l f , o f course , t he po l i t i ca lm o de l p r ov i de s f e w i f a ny d i r e c t a n s w e r s; i t doe s , on t he o t he r ha nd , op e n upa r a nge o f que s t i ons w h i c h , w he n pu t t o a va i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i on on popu l a rv i o l e nc e , m a ke m or e s e ns e o f i t s o r i g i n s a nd ope r a t i on . S o m uc h f o r t heg r o u n d p l a n ; b a c k t o t h e a r g u m e n t .


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N o w i t i s t r ue , a s S tone p r opos e s , t ha t t he o r e t i c a l w or k on r e vo l u t i ons c a nhe l p c o r r e c t the " a n t i qu a r i a n f a c t - g r ubb i ng t o w h i c h h i s t o r i a ns a r e s o p r on e "b y d r a w in g a t t e n t i o n t o p r o b l e m s o f g e n e ra l i m p o r t , " a w a y f r o m t h e s te ri let r i v ia l i ty o f s o m uc h h i s t o ri c a l r e s e a rc h . ' '6 Bu t i n c om pe t e n t t he o r y c a n no te n h a n c e u n d e r s ta n d i n g o f h i s t o r y . A n d , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , a v a i la b le t h e o r ie s o fr e vo l u t i on a n d c o l l e c ti ve v i o l e nc e - i n pa r t i c u l a r, t hos e c ons t r uc t e d by l e a d i ngA m e r i c a n s oc i a l s c ie n t is t s t o a c c o un t f o r t he w or l dw i de t u r m o i l o f t he 1960s- a r e de e p l y de f e c t ive . T he i r e l e m e n t a r y c onc e p t s a nd e m p i r i c a l de s c r i p t ionsa r e bu i l t upon m i s l e a d i ng m e t a pho r s , r i dd l e d w i t h e r r one ous t he o r e t i c a la s s um pt i ons a bo u t t he c a us es 7 a nd c ha r a c t e r is t ic s o f v i o l e n t s tr i fe be t w e e ne m ba t t l e d g r oups . A nd t he i r ge ne r a l c onc l u s i ons a bo u t t he s oc ia l o r ig i n s o fpo l i t i c a l uphe a va l t yp i c a l l y r e s t on a r gum e n t s t ha t , unde r s c r u t i ny , t u r n ou tt o be t r i v ia l l y t r ue ( o f t e n by de f i n i t i on ) , uns u ppo r t e d by e v i de nc e , o r pa t e n t l yf a ls e . C los e i n s pe c t i on r e vea ls t ha t t he s e e m i ng l y s oph i s t i c a t e d c onc e p t si m por t e d f r om s oc i a l p s yc ho l ogy t o e xp l a i n v i o l e n t po l i t i c s a r e l i t t l e m or et ha n ne o l og i s m s f o r s oc i a l r e s e n t m e n t o r , a s one c r i t i c pu t s i t , " r i gh t e ousi nd i gn a t i on" ; 8 a nd , f u r t he r , t ha t r e s e n t m e n t a nd g r ie va nc e s a l one , no m a t t e rho w a gg r a va t e d , c a nno t a c c o un t f o r c iv il v i o le nc e on a ny s c a l e , m uc h le ss t heo u t b r e a k o f c o n c e r t e d a s sa u lt s o n i n c u m b e n t s ta t e -m a n a g e r s .Gr ievan ces , o f course , wh a teve r th i s spe c i f i c o r ig in in any g iven case , a re a sba s ic t o r e be l l ion a s i s oxyge n t o c om bus t i on ; f e w w o u l d d i s pu t e t h is . Bu tf l uc t ua t i ons i n g r i e va nc e s a c c oun t f o r t he ou t b r e a k o f c o l l e c t i ve p r o t e s t a spoo r l y a s f l uc t ua t i ons i n t he oxyge n c on t e n t o f a i r e xp l a i n t he i nc i de nc e o ff ir e s. 9 M or e i m po r t a n t a r e t he po l i t ic a l l y s i gn i fi c a n t r e s ou r c e s pe op l e ha ve a tt he i r d i s pos a l t o a c t upon g r i e va nc e s . L i ke a ny m ove t o uns e a t i nc um be n ta u t ho r i t i e s , v i o l e n t r e d r e s s a nd r e vo l t de pe nd on a f a vo r a b l e d i s t r i bu t i on o fs oc ia l pow e r c ha nc e s9 T h e y r e qu i r e a n ( a t l e a st m o m e n t a r i l y ) op po r t un eba l a nc e o f t a c t i c a l f o r c e s i n t he i m m e d i a t e po l i t i c a l a r e na . Rom a n t i c m y t ha s ide , opp r e s s e d g r oup s c a nn o t r e be l i n a s i t ua t ion o f c om p l e t e i m po t e nc e ;pow e r l e ss pe op l e " a r e e a s y v i c t i m s . ' 1~

A c o m m o n p l a c e , p e r h a p s , b u t l i k e m a n y s u c h i t i s i m p o r t a n t a n d ( b e i n g s oo b v i o u s ) o f t e n g o e s u n n o t i c e d b y e x p o n e n t s o f t h e m o r e s o p h i s t ic a t ed c o n -ve n t i ona l w i s dom . Cons i de r t he c onc l u s i on d r a w n by t he e d i to r s o f t heM i l to n E i s e n h o w e r C o m m i s si o n R e p o r t o n t h e " C a u s e s a n d P r e v e n ti o n o fV i o l e n c e , " a la rg e v o l u m e i n f o r m e d b y t h e h a r d l a b o r o f s e v er al t h e o r is t s o fr e vo l u t i on w hos e i de a s a nd a s s um pt i ons w i ll be unde r c r i ti c is m he r e :

9 . . one p r i nc ip l e s e e m s e v i de n t f r om t he c om pa r a t i ve s t a ti s ti c a l e v i de nc e:wha tever the h i s tor i ca l , po l i t i ca l , o r soc ia l cha rac te r o f a na t ion , i t s c i t i zens


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4 2a r e l i ke l y t o r e s o r t r e p e a t e d l y t o pub l i c p r o t e s t a nd v i o l e nc e s o l ong a sthe y have severe an d pe rs i s t ing gr i evances . ~1

I f w e t a ke t h i s to m e a n t h a t w he ne ve r r e vo l u t i ons a nd popu l a r v i o l enc e t a keplace , g r i evances wi l l p rov ide the po l i t i ca l mot ive for co l l ec t ive ac t ion , then i tis qu i te t r ue ; i n f a c t , a t r u is m . I f , on t he o t he r ha nd , w e r e a d i t t o m e a n t ha twhere - and whenever compe l l ing gr i evances ex i s t , angry people wi l l r i s e tor e m e dy t he m , t he n t he s t a t e m e n t i s obv i ous l y f a ls e . 12 T he r e a r e m a n y s it ua-t i ons on r e c o r d w he r e " s e ve r e a nd pe r s is t ing g r i e va nc e s " a bou nd a nd a r ec l e a rl y pe r c e i ve d a s s uc h , bu t w he r e v i c t i m i z e d pe o p l e l a c k t he po l i ti c a l w he r e -wi tha l to ga lvanize anger in to ac t ion , o r e l s e face such com preh ens ive repres -s ion tha t an y b u t the m os t cau t iou s pe t i t io n for redres s is we l l -n igh su icida l, t3T h i s fa c t be t r a y s po l i ti c a l p r ob l e m s r e qu ir i ng a d i f f e r e n t k i nd o f a na l y si s f r omt h a t p r o p o s e d b y m o s t w r i te r s o n r e v o lu t i o n .I f d e fe c t iv e t h e o r ie s c o n f u s e m o r e t h a n c l ar if y , h o w e v e r , w h y b o t h e r w i t hc r i t i c ism ins t ead o f jus t ge t t ing on wi th re sea rch , a s the l ead ing h i s tor i an o ft he F r e nc h Re v o l u t i on , f o r one , s t e r n l y r e c om m e nds ? 14 S i m p l y be c a us ep r o b l e m s o f e x p l a n a t i o n r e m a i n n o m a t t e r h o w m u c h r e s e a rc h is a c c o m p l i sh e d .F a c t s n e ve r s pe a k f o r t he m s e l ve s , bu t m us t be s po ke n f o r ; t he y p r ov i de thep r o b l e m , n o t t h e s o l u ti o n . N o r a r e " f a c t s " a n d " t h e o r i e s " s o s e p a ra t e a n dd i s ti nc t a s dogm a t i c e m p i r ic i s m i m p l ie s . M ode r n ph i l o s o phy o f s c i e nce ha ss how n t ha t a ll obs e r va t ion p r oc e e ds f r om the o r e t i c a l a s s um pt i ons , a nd t ha the nc e t he r e is no t he o r y - f r e e , un i n t e r p r e t e d " e m p i r i c a l ba s i s " to know l e dge , asT he o r i e s bo t h gove r n t he c ho i c e o f r e l e va n t da t a a nd c o l o r a nd obs e r va t i ona lexpe r i ences by wh ich fac t s a re pe rce ived and reg i s t e red . Ob se rva t ions a ret he m s e l ve s " a l w a ys interpretations o f t h e f a c t s o b s e r v e d " ; t h e y a r e "inter-pretations in the l ight o f theories . ,,~6 W he n no t f o r m u l a t e d e xp l i c i tl y , t he o r i e ss l ip by d i sgui sed as obse rva t iona l t e rms and empi r i ca l desc r ip t ions , "Tro janho r s e s w h i c h m u s t be w a t c he d m os t c a r e f u l l y . '~7Co ns e qu e n t l y , f a c t - f ind i ng a s s uc h , no m a t t e r how c o ns c i e n t i ous l y a c c om -p l i she d , c a n no t gua r a n t e e t he s po n t a ne o us i nduc t i on o f in t e r e s ti ng , non t r i v i a lhyp o t he s e s . N or c a n i t e n s u r e t ha t t he " f a c t s " t hus c o l l e c te d a nd r e p o r t e d w illno t be c on t a m i na t e d w i t h t he o r e t i c a l s uppos i t ions w h i c h , i f m a de e xp l i c i ta nd s ub j e c t e d t o f u r t he r i nqu i r y a nd t e s t ing , w ou l d b e p r ove n f a ls e . T h i s isc e r t a i n l y no t t o d i s c ou ra ge e m p i r i c a l s t ud ie s - good r e s e a rc h on r e vo l u t i ons isi n sho r t e nough s upp l y - bu t o n l y t o s t re s s t ha t f a c t s do no t " s pe a k f o r t he m -s e l ve s " ( s a ve by t he o r e t i c a l ve n t r i l oquy ) , a nd t ha t " t he o r e t i c a l a s s um pt i ons ,a l l t he m or e i f i m p l i c i t a nd une xa m i ne d , de t e r m i ne t he s e l e c t i on a nd i n t e r -p r e t a t i on o f f a c t s, a nd i n s te a d o f gu i d ing e m p i r i c a l w o r k , t y r a nn i z e ove r it ,d i c t a ti ng i n a dva nc e t he ou t c om e o f inve s t iga t ions tha t o s t e ns i b l y a i m t ou n c o v e r new fac ts . ' '18


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43The p r ob le m f o r t he m om e n t , t he n , is p r ima r i ly c onc e p tua l , no t e v iden t i al ;bu t t he be a r ing o f t he se c onc e r ns on e mpi r i c a l i nqu i r y a nd p r a c t ic a l a c t ionshou ld be c l ea r e nough . F o r a n u nde r s t a nd ing o f re vo lu t ions , l ike a ny th inge l se , c a n be no be t t e r t ha n the t he o r i e s t ha t i n f o r m i t . And the f i r s t s t e p to -wa r d b e t t e r t h e o r y i s t o sub je c t e x is t ing the o r i e s t o t h e o r e t i c a l c r i t i c i smJ 9

IIS ince no w or d ha s su f f e r e d m or e f r om the de ba se m e n t o f po l i t ic a l d i s cou r set h a n " r e v o l u t i o n , " w e m u s t sp ell o u t w h a t w e m e a n b y it . A d m i t t e d l y , d e -f in i t iona l qu ibbles a re a s bor in g as the y a re po in t le ss . W ha t ma t te r s i s no twor ds a s suc h , bu t w ha t t he y de p ic t a nd p u r p o r t t o e xp la in whe n ph r a se d a st h e o r ie s o f h o w t h e w o r l d w o r k s . I f t h e p r o p e r t a s k o f d e fi n i ti o n , t h e n , is t of oc us a r gume n t on f a c t , to c onv e r t d i spu ta t ion ove r t e rms in to d i s a g r ee me n ta b o u t w h a t t h e y s t a n d f o r ,S ~ thus ope n ing a r gume n t s t o f u r the r i nqu i r y ,t e s ti ng , a nd r e f u t a t i o n , t he n the de f in i t i ons we a dop t w il l de t e r m ine wh a t wec hoose to e xp la in w i th t he o r i e s . No w the que s t ion be c om e s , W ha t f a ctua lc on f igu r a t ions i n r e vo lu t ion a r y h i s to r y c o ns t i t u t e t he explicandum, tha t i s ,t h e " e v e n t " a t h e o r y s h o u ld a c c o u n t f o r ?Le t ' s be g in w i th one s t a nda r d de f in i t i on , r e c e n t ly bo i l e d down to a s ing l es e n t en c e b y a w e l l- k n o w n p o l it ic a l c ri ti c , o f re v o l u t i o n as " a n a t t e m p t . . , t oseiz e s t a t e pow e r on the p a r t o f po l i t ic a l f o r c e s a vowe d ly oppose d n o t m e r e lyto the ex is t ing reg ime bu t to the ex is t ing soc ia l o rd e r a s a wh ole . '21 Thisf o r mu la ne a t ly d i s t i ngu i she s r e vo lu t ions f r om o the r a t t e mp t s a t v io l e n tc ha nge o f gove r nme n t . Mi l i t a r y coups d'Otat ha ve c us toma r i ly a ime d a tro ta t ing c l iques of po l i t ica l en t repreneurs in rou t ine fash ion , whi le leav ingthe ex is t ing h ie ra rch ies of po we r and soc ia l p rivi lege fund am enta l ly un-c ha nge d . A nd f a sc i st c oun te r r e vo lu t ion s , e ve n those a t t r a c t ing w ide popu la rsuppor t f o r a n t i c a p i t a l i s t p r og r a ms a nd r he to r i c , ha ve typ i c a l ly a c c e de d togove r nm e n t w i th t he c oo pe r a t io n o f e s t a b li shed 61 it es wh o , wh il e p r e t e nd ingto be o ve r whe lm e d by f o r c e , r e t a ine d subs t an t i al i n f lue nc e a nd pe r qu i s it e sa f t e r t he a ppa r e n t " se i z u re o f pow e r . '22 R e be l li ons , on the o the r ha nd , how-e ve r v io l e n t o r soc ia l ly r a d i c al , a r e n o t r e v o lu t ion a r y i f c on f ine d to a t t a c kson loc a l a ge n ts o f opp r e s s ion . B u t a l li e d w i th r e vo lu t iona r y cha l le nge rs f o rpow e r a t t he c e n te r , r e be ll i ons c a n ( w i th ou t c onsc ious i n t e n t ) ha ve p r o f ou nd lyr e vo lu t iona r y c onse que nc e s .~aThe s t a nda r d c on c e p t io n se e ms v ind ic a t e d . B u t e ve n a c u r so r y r e v i ew o f t heac tua l course o f r ea l r ev olu t io ns revea ls several p roblem s. Cons ide r the f i r s t" G r e a t R e v o l u t i o n " o f t h e t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y - t h a t i n M e x ic o , 1 9 10 t o 1 9 2 0 .


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4 4I t b e ga n w he n ~ l it e li be ra l s r e be ll e d t o p r e ve n t t he " r e e l e c t i on " o f t hepres ident i a l d i c t a tor . Som e o f the rebe l s , anx io us fo r the leve rage con-fe r red by a mass fo l lowing , sought a ll ie s am on g provinc ia l campesinosm obi l i z e d i n de f e ns e o f p r o pe r t y r igh t s a ga i n st t he ons l a ugh t o f c om m e r -c i a l p l a n t a t i ons ( w hos e ow ne r s s t ood w i t h t he d i c t a t o r i a l c oa l i t i on ) . O nc elaunc hed , th i s t en uo us t ac t i ca l a l l iance t r iggered an agra r ian soc ia l r evolu-t i on w h i c h , t hough de f e a t e d i n t he e nd by s upe r i o r f i r e pow e r , l e f t i t s i n -de l ib l e s ta m p on t he ne w c ons t i t u t i on . By e ve r y s t a nda r d r e c kon i ng - e f f e c -t ive t r a ns f e r o f pow e r t o a ne w c la ss , soc ia l uphe a va l , m a s s m ob i l i z a t i on , an e w d o m i n a n t i d e o l o g y , o r s h e e r b l o o d s h e d ( b e t w e e n o n e a n d t w o m i l l i o npe op l e pe r i she d ) - M e x i c o e xpe r i e nc e d a G r e a t R e vo l u t i on . v* A nd , a s h i nd -s i gh t, t he s t a nda r d de f i n i t i on a f f o r d s a f ai r , i f no t pe r f e c t , s ynop s i s o f po l i ti c a lc u r r e n t s t ha t w o n o u t i n t he e nd . I f w e s t e p ba c k a fe w ye a r s in t i m e , how -e v e r , a n d a t t e m p t a prospective scan of ob jec t ive poss ib i l i t i e s , t h i s venerab lede f i n i ti on c u t s on l y t h i n a ir . A t t he t i m e the i r d r a m a be ga n , ne i t he r t hel ibe r al s no r t he c o un t r y pe op l e i m a g i ne d t he m s e l ve s p l a y i ng t he p a r t o f"pol i t i ca l fo rces opposed . . . t o the ex i s t ing soc ia l o rde r a s a whole . " Clea r lyw e ne e d a m e a n s o f d i se n t a ng li ng t he i de n t i f i c a t i on o f a n a c t ua l r e vo l u t i ona r ys i t ua t ion f r o m t he a nno unc e d i n t e n t i ons o f c e r t a i n p r o t a gon i s t s , as w e l l a sf r o m t h e ( b y n o m e a n s p r e d e s t in e d ) i d e n t i t y o r a c c o m p l i s h m e n t s o f t h ew i nne r s .I n t h i s e f f o r t w e a r e a ide d c on s i de r a b l y by t he r e c e n t w o r k o f Cha r l es T i l ly ,w h o de ve l ops a po li t ic a l m ode l o f re vo l u t i on a r y s i tua t i ons f r om a p ivo t a l i de ai n T r o t s k y ' s History of the Russian Revolution. A t ba s e , r e vo l u t i ons a r ea l w a ys c on t e s t s f o r s t a te pow e r . T he y i nvo l ve t he s e i zu r e (o r a t t e m p t e d s e iz u r e )o f c on t r o l ove r a gove r nm e n t a l a ppa r a t u s - und e r s t ood a s t he p r i nc i pa l c on -c e n t r a t e d m a t e r i a l m e a n s o f c oe r c i on , t a xa t i o n , a nd a dm i n i s t r a t i on in s oc i e ty- by one c la ss, g r oup , o r ( m or e li ke l y ) c oa l i ti on f r o m a no t h e r Y T he r e vo -l u t i ona r y s i t ua ti on i t s e l f is de l im i t e d by w ha t T r o t s ky ( f o l l ow i ng L e n i n ) c a l le d" dua l pow e r " a nd T i l l y , w i t h a w i de r r a nge o f c om pa r a t i ve r e f e r e nc e , ha sr e c h ri s te n e d " m u l t i p l e s o v e r e ig n t y " : t h e f r a g m e n t a t i o n o f g o v e r n m e n t a la u t ho r i t y i n t o t w o ( o r m or e ) e p i c e n t e r s , e a c h o f w h i c h c l ai m s e xc lu s ive l eg i-t i m a c y , i n a t e r r i t o r y w h e r e o n l y o n e s u c h v i o l e n c e a n d t a x a t i o n m o n o p o l yha d p r e v i ous l y ope r a t e d . H i s t o r i c a ll y , m u l t ip l e s ove r e i gn t y ha s o f t e n c om ea b ou t w he n t he po l i t y - t hos e g r oups r ou t i ne l y m a k i ng s uc c es s fu l c l ai m s ont he e xe r c i s e o f gov e r nm e n t i n the i r i n t e r e st - s p li ts in t o w a r r i ng f a c ti ons .S uc h a fi ss u re i n t he r u li ng e s t a b l is hm e n t , m or e ov e r , m a y w e l l p r ov i de c ha l -l e nge r s f r om be l ow w i t h t a c t i c a l oppo r t un i t i e s a nd l e ve r a ge t o p r e s s t he i rde m a nds f o r r e d i s tr i bu t ive ju s t ic e - p r e c i se l y w h a t ha pp e ne d i n m os t o f t heso-ca ll ed G rea t R evo lu t ions . 26 In any event , m ul t ip l e so vere ign ty e f fec t ive lybegins whe n mob i l i zed po l i t i ca l con tend ers - be they d i s s iden t 61 it es , po pu la r


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45m ov e m e n t s , o r a t a c t ic a l c oa l i t ion o f the t w o - a r e r e bu f f e d i n t he i r b i d f o ra u t h o r i t y - s h a r i n g b y i n c u m b e n t p o w e r h o l d e r s , a n d t h e n o b t a i n p r a c t i c a lr e c ogn i t i on f o r t he i r c l ai m s t o e xc l u si ve l e g i t im a c y f r om i m po r t a n t s e gm e n t so f t he po pu l a t i on a t l a r ge . 27 W he n , i n o t he r w or ds , s t r at e g ic g r oups i n ag i v e n c o u n t r y a r e c o n f r o n t e d w i t h c o n f l i c t i n g d e m a n d s f r o m b o t h g o v e r n -m e n t a nd r e be l a u t ho r i t i e s f o r t a xe s , t r oops , s upp l i e s , a nd c on t i nu i ng a l l e -g iance - and d e l ive r to the rebe l s , t he re volu t ion is on . I t ends wh en , byv i c t o r y , de f e a t , o r pa r t i a l a c c om m oda t i on o f t he a l t e r na t i ve c oa l i t i on , oneg r o u p o r a l li an c e c o m m a n d s a s ta b le m o n o p o l y o v e r t h e c o n c e n t r a t e d m e a n so f c o e r c i o n a n d t a x a t i o n . 28T h o u g h t h is s im p l e sc h e m e a f f o r d s a re a d y m e a n s o f c o m p a r i n g r e v o l u ti o n a r ys i tua t ions , he lp ing h igh l igh t the dec i s ive s imi la r i t i e s and d i f fe rences be tweenm a j o r , m i no r , a nd m i s f ir e d r e vo l u t i ons (i nc l ud ing t he e l u si ve Ch ine s e Cu l t u ra lRe vo l u t i on ) , i t doe s r un a ga i n s t s om e de e p l y - g r oove d po l i t i c a l i n t u i t i ons .A l m os t i n s t inc t i ve l y w e t h i n k o f " r e a l " r e vo l u t i ons a s g r e a t pop u l a r uphe a va l st ha t d r a s t ic a l ly a nd pe r m a ne n t l y t r a ns f o r m s oc i e t y , ge ne r a t e ne w pow e r a r-r a nge m e n t s a nd i n s t i t u t i ons , a nd b r i ng f o r t h e ga l i t a r i a n o r o t he r w i s e r a d i c a li de o log i e s. A m i no r i t y ha ve t u r ne d ou t t h i s w a y , t o be s u r e . I t is hope l e s s ,how e ve r , t o t r y t o i s o la t e a n e xc l u si ve s et o f " t r ue " r e vo l u t i ons a c c o r d i ng t os t a nda r ds o f m a s s pa r t i c i pa t i on , i de o l og i ca l nove l t y , t he c la s s c om pos i t i on o ft he n e w po l i t y , o r t he n a t u r e a nd e x t e n t o f r e s u l ti ng s oc ia l c ha nge . E ve n t heG r e a t Re v o l u t i ons a l l va r y huge l y on t he s e c oun t s . M or e ove r , to r e i f y a def in i -t i on o f r e vo l u t i on i n te r m s o f c e r t a in f e a t u r e s t ha t a r e c on t i nge n t on t he f i na lv i c t o r y a nd a u t he n t i c i t y o f f a vo r e d ( o r d i s fa vo r e d ) p r o t a gon i s t s i s t o e ndo r s ea " r a d i c a l " t w i s t o n t he W hig v i e w o f h i s t o r y , i n w h i c h t he w i nne r s ' c l ai m sa nd a c c o m pl i s hm e n t s a re r e c o r de d f o r pos t e r i t y w h i le t he l o s e r s a r e c ons igne dt o ob l i v i on .29 T o m a ke h i s t o r i c a l s e ns e , a ny v i a b l e c onc e p t i on o f r e vo l u t i onm u s t t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t t h a t t h o s e w h o i n i ti a te , l ea d , p r o v i d e m a s s s u p p o r t f o r ,a n d u l t i m a t e l y b e n e f i t f r o m r e v o l u t i o n s a r e o f t e n v e r y d i f f e r e n t g r o u p s o fpe op le .30T he r e a r e , t he n , c e r t a i n a dva n t a ge s t o de f i n i ng r e vo l u t i ons prospec t i v e l y aso p e n - e n d e d r e v o l u t io n a r y s i tua t ions o f m u l t i p le s o v e re i g n ty . M o s t i m p o r t a n tis t h e d e t a c h m e n t o f th e d e fi n in g c o n d i t i o n f r o m t h e p r o g r a m m a t i c i n t en t i onsof one o r a no t h e r s e t o f w a r r i ng c o n t e nde r s , a s w e l l a s f r o m t he i n s ti t u t iona lo u t c om e e x t a n t a t o r a f t e r t he c l o s e o f a c t ive hos ti li ti e s . W hy t h i s de t a c h m e n to f t he de f i n ing c i r c um s t a nc e f r om va r i a b le s c us t om a r i l y i de n t i f ie d w i t h t heve r y e s s e nc e o f r e vo l u t i on m a r ks a n a na l y t i c a dva n t a ge i s no t a l t oge t he robv i ous , how e v e r , a nd r e qu i r es c l a r if i c a ti on .A s no t e d , one t r oub l e w i t h de f i n i ng r e vo l u t i ons i n r e t r o s pe c t by t he i de o log i c a l


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4 6de si gns o f ke y c on t e nd e r s i s t ha t t he s e a i m s o f t e n t i m e s d i d no t e x i s t w h e n t hes e que nc e o f e ve n t s know n ho l i s t i c a l l y a s " T he Re vo l u t i on" w a s f i r s t s e t i nm o t i on . W ha t t h r ou gh t he f o r e s ho r t e n i ng o f h i nds i gh t l ooks l ike t he w is he d -f o r o u t c o m e t u r n s o u t , o n c lo s e r i n s p e c ti o n , t o b e t h e u n p l a n n e d , u n i n t e n d e d ,e ve n un f o r e s e e n c ons e que nc e o f a v i o l e n t f re e - f o r- a ll f oug h t f o r c o n t r o l o f t hes t a te a nd pu b l i c po l i c y by c on t e nd e r s w h o d i d n o t c ou n t o n s e iz ing ( m uc h l es sho l d i ng ) po w e r a t t he ou t s e t o r ( l ike Z a pa t a ) be c a m e r e vo l u t iona r i e s i n s p i teo f t he m s e l ve s . A nd w he n r a d i c a l c ha l l e nge r s d i d s e t ou t s c he m e s f o r r e nova -t i on o r r e f o r m , the i r p r og r a m s w e r e i m pr ov i s e d a nd r e v is e d und e r f i r e , a s t he ya nd r i va l pow e r g r oups s t r ugg l e d t o a t t r a c t a nd a c c om oda t e d i f f e r e n t s oc i a lba s e s o f s uppo r t . Ra d i c a l de s i gns f o r s w e e p i ng c ha nge , i n o t he r w or ds , ha veb e e n a s m u c h o r m o r e t h e p r o d u c t s t h a n t h e p r e c u r s o rs o f r e v o l u t io n a r y u p -he a va l . Conve r s e l y , r e f o r m i s t p r og r a m s c om pos e d i n a s p i r i t o f c om pr om i s ea nd m od e r a t i o n i n pe a c e f u l c i r c um s t a nc e s ha ve , onc e the go i ng go t r ough , be -c om e t he i de o log i c a l c u t t i ng e dge o f r e vo l u t i on a r y v i o l e nc e - a s ha p pe n e d ,for exa m ple , in th e F ren ch Re volu t ion . 31 In s ti ll o th e r ins t ances , i nc lud ingboth succes s fu l and fa i l ed revolu t ions , a s we l l a s those de fea ted cha l l engesd e e m e d m e r e " r e b e l li o n s " b y t h e c o n d e sc e n s io n o f p o s t e r it y , t h e m o s tr a d i c a l o f p r o g r a m m a t i c i n t e n t i o n s h a v e b e e n s u p p r e s s e d b e f o r e t h e y c o u l dins t i tu t iona l i ze des i red changes of soc ia l and p o l i t i ca l re l a t ionsh ips , 32 she lvedf o r r e a s ons~ o f e x p e d i e n c y Y k e p t m a r g i n al a n d i n e ff e c ti v e t h o u g h o u t , ~ a n do n r a re o c c a si o n s, p i c k e d u p a n d p u s h e d t h r o u g h b y g o v e r n m e n t s h o ld i n gp o w e r e v e n y e a r s a f t e r th e c e ss a ti o n o f o p e n r e v o l u t io n a r y c o n f l i c t Y A ll o fw h i c h c ons i de r a t ions m a ke dub i ous a n y e f f o r t t o c l as s if y h i s to r i c a l r e vo l u t i onsby t he s t a t e d i n t e n t i ons o f ou t s t a nd i ng p r o t a gon i s t s .

T he s a m e c r i t ic i sm s a pp l y i f t he de f i n i t ion by i n t e n t i on i s qua l if i e d by t her i de r t ha t t o be c a l l e d a r e vo l u t i on , a n e p i s ode o f po l i t i c a l uphe a va l m us tinvolve some cha l l enger wi th rad ica l des igns wh o is s t rong enoug h to ac tua l lycon s t i tu t e a c l ea r and prese n t dang er to the s t a t e and soc ia l o rde r . 36 Fo r jus ta s rad ica l revolu t ionar i e s have se ldom i f eve r been se r ious th rea t s to thes t a tu s quo u n t i l o t he r f o r c e s - ha v i ng no s uc h i n t e n t - s ho ok i t a pa r t , s oha ve m ove m e n t s w i t h c ons e r va t ive ide a s a nd i n s ti nc ts f o und t he m s e l ve sp r e s s i ng r e vo l u t i ona r y c l a i m s onc e t he c o l l a ps e o f s t a t e pow e r s hove d a ne ws e t o f op t i ons be f o r e t he m . Be i t t he r e f o r e m a x i m a l - r e qu i ri ng t ha t p r inc i pa lc on t e nd e r s a i m a t t o t a l tr a n s f o r m a t i on o f s oc i e t y - o r m i n i m a l , de m a nd i ngon l y t ha t t he y t r y t o c hange by f o r c e a gov e r nm e n t ' s " c o ns t i t u t i on , r u le r s, o rpo l i c ie s , '37 the de f in i t ion of rev olu t io n b y subjec t ive in t en t i s a dead end .W i t hou t de ny i ng t he c r uc i a l i m po r t o f i de o log i e s a nd pub l i c p r og r a m s i nr e vo l u t i ona r y s i tua t i ons , t he p o i n t r e m a i ns tha t t he ge ne si s a nd c ou r s e o fr e vo l u t i ons c a nno t be de f i ne d ( m uc h l e s s e xp l a i ne d ) by t he c ons c i ous i n t e n -t io n s o f a n y s in gle c o n t e n d e r . R e v o l u t io n s c o m m o n l y c o m m e n c e w i th e f f o r t s


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4 7a t c onse r va t ive r e s to r a t ion , a nd the y c onc lude w i th r e su l t s t ha t a r e s e ldomin te nd e d o r f o r e se e n by the i r p r inc ipa l ma ke r s .W ha t , t he n , o f t he o th e r a lt e rna t ive - t ha t o f de f in ing r e vo lu t ions by theb r o a d i n s t it u t io n a l o u t c o m e s t o w h i c h t h e y c o n t r i b u t e ? D e f i n e d t h u s b y o u t -c ome , r e vo lu t ions a r e e qua te d w i th t he sum to t a l o f soc i a l a nd po l i t i c a lc ha nges i nduc e d by o r in d i r e c t c onse que nc e o f v io l e n t c on te s t s f o r s ta t ep o w e r , h e n c e t o o w i t h t h e t r a n s f o rm a t i v e p r og r a m s e n a c t e d b y t h e w i n n i n gpa r ti e s . C ons ide r S a mue l P . H un t ing ton ' s f e l i c i tous a nd w ide ly a dop te d de f in i -t i on o f r e vo lu t ion a s a " r a p id , f unda me n ta l , a nd v io l e n t dome s t i c c ha nge inthe dom ina n t va lues a nd m y ths o f a soc i e ty , i n i ts po l i ti c a l i n s t i t u ti ons , soc i als t r uc tu r e , l e a de rsh ip , a nd gov e r nm e n t a c t iv i t y a nd po l i ci e s. ' aS On the f a c e o fi t , t h i s l ine o f de m a r c a t ion o f f e r s two c l e a r- c u t a dva n ta ge s. One , i t mor tga ge sthe requis i te chan ges to po l i t ica l v io lence , thus avoid ing confus ion s tha t a ri sewh e n " r e v o lu t ion " is u se d to de n o te r a p id a nd e x t e nsive soc ia l c ha nge , r e -ga rd less of whe the r i t s tems f rom coerc ive s t ruggle~ for s ta te power . (And,inc ide n ta l ly , t he g r e a t es t soc ia l t r a ns f o r ma t ions o f m ode r n h i s to r y , t hoset h a t h a v e a f f e c te d t h e e v e r y d a y liv es o f o r d i n a r y p e o p l e m o s t p r o f o u n d l y ,ha ve t a ke n p l a ce i n pe r iods o f po l i t ic a l s ta b i l it y , no t i n r e vo lu t iona r y si tua -t i ons . ) 39 Tw o , Hu n t ing ton ' s d e f in i t i on ne a t ly d i st ingu i she s r e vo lu t ions f r omhis tor ica l ou tcom es o f le sse r grav i ty : " ins ur rec t io ns , r ebe l lions , r evo l t s , "wh ic h do n o t i na ugur a t e f und a m e n ta l soc ia l c ha nges ; coups d'~tat which reviseon ly the m e m be r sh ip r o s t e r s o f r u ling jun t a s ; a nd wa r s o f na t iona l i nde pe n -dence ( inc luding the Am er ican) w hich fa il to fo rce changes in the bas ic s t ruc -tu r e o f soc i al r e la t ionsh ips . F u r the r m or e , a s Hu n t ing ton p o in t s ou t , t h i s de f i-n i t i on de l imi t s a ve r y na r r ow r a nge o f ou t c o m e s - " w ha t o the r s ha ve c a ll e dgrea t r e volu t ions , g rand revolu t ions , o r soc ia l r evolu t ions . '4~ Th us exc lude da r e f a i l ed o r a bo r t i ve r e vo lu t ions whe r e i nc um be n t s w in ou t ove r i n su r gen t sa nd ( by e x t e ns ion ) c oun te r r e vo lu t ions in wh ic h r a d i c al r igh t -w ing fo r c e sa be t t e d by c onse r va t ive ~ l i t e s a c c e de to powe r a nd , wh i l e a t t e mp t ing tom a ke r e a c t ion po pu la r a nd p l e be i a n , sho r e up p r o pe r t y a nd p rivile ge b y f o r c e .W i th th e a d j e ct ive " do m e s t i c , " f i na l ly , Hu n t ing to n d i squa li fi e s r e vo lu t ionsl ike t hose i n pos twa r Ea s t Eu r ope whe r e s t r uc tu r a l c ha nge s we r e p r odde dt h r o u g h a t b a y o n e t p o i n t b y a n o c c u p y i n g a rm y .Ne a t , c l e a n , a nd a ppa r e n t ly c om pr e he ns ive , Hu n t ing to n ' s ve r s ion o f t hede f in i t i on by ou tc om e n one the l e s s ha r bo r s some se r ious d ra wba c ks . To be g inwi th , t he " g r e a t r e vo lu t ions " he m e n t ions a ll d i ff e r d r a ma t i c a l ly i n t he e x t e n tto wh ic h the y invo lve d " r a p id , c om ple t e , a nd v io l e n t cha nge in va lue s , soc ia ls t ruc ture , po l i t ica l ins t i tu t ions , governmenta l p rac t ices , and soc ia l -pol i t ica ll e a de rsh ip . ' 41 B y the se c r it e ri a - a nd do n ' t i nqu i r e t oo c lo sely i n to t heme a n ing o f " r a p id " o r " c om ple t e " - t he c r e de n t ia l s o f se ve ra l g r e a t r e vo lu -


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48t i ons a p pe a r dub i ous . 42 H un t i ng t on i s w e l l a w a r e t ha t t he w i nn i ng pa r t i e s i nr e vo l u t i ona r y s i tua t i ons a r e o f t e n c om pe l l e d t o w a t e r dow n o r be t r a y t he irp r om i s e s , a nd ( by h i s l i gh t s , w or s e ) t ha t t he y f r e que n t l y f a i l t o e r e c t a ne wa nd v i a b le po l i t ic a l o r de r a t op t he r u i n s o f t he o l d r ~g im e . H e nc e he p r o pos e st o m e a s u r e a r e vo l u t i on by t he " a u t ho r i t y a nd s ta b i l i ty o f t he in s t i t u t ions t ow h i c h i t g i ve s b i r t h . ''43 Bu t t h i s c om m ons e n s e qua l i f ic a t i on on l y w e a k e ns t hei n t e g r i ty o f h i s o r ig i na l f o r m u l a t i on , w h i c h r e s t r ic t s t he na m e r e vo l u t i one xc l u s i ve l y t o v i o l e n t c on t e s t s f o r s t a t e pow e r t ha t p r oduc e t ho r ough a ndl a st ing c ha nge s o f po l it ic s a nd s oc i e t y . W hi c h r a is e s a no t he r po i n t o f c r it ic i s m .H u n t i n g t o n ' s d e f i n it io n b y o u t c o m e m a r k s n o r ea l d i st in c t io n b e t w e e nc ha nge s i nduc e d by t he v i o l e nc e o f r e vo l u t i on a nd c ha nge s m a de by thev i o l e nc e o f r u l e - be t w e e n s oc ia l uphe a va l s i m pe l l e d by t he unc o n t r o l l e dv i o l e nc e o f ope n r e vo l u t i ona r y s i t ua t i ons , a nd t hos e p r oduc e d by t he s om e -t i m e s c oe r c ive p l a ns a nd po l ic i e s i m po s e d b y s t a te - m a na ge r s a f t e r t he a dve n to f a ne w r ~g i m e . O f t e n e nou gh , s t r uc t u r a l c ha nge s ide n t i f ie d i n r e t r o s pe c t ast he e s se nc e o f e a c h g r e a t r e vo l u t i on w e r e r a m m e d t h r oug h , no t i n t he c r o s sf i r e s o f a r e vo l u t i ona r y s i t ua t i on w he n pow e r w a s up f o r g r a bs , bu t a f t e r -w a r ds a s t he s e t tl e d po l i c y o f go ve r nm e n t o ff i ci a ls . T he c ha nge s t ha t m a dem os t g r e a t r e vo l u t i ons g r e a t w e r e a c c om pl i s he d by gove r nm e n t s w hos ea u t h o r i t y w e n t u n c o n t e s t e d , n o t b y i n s u rg e n t f o r c e s f ig h ti n g th e i n c u m b e n c y .I n s u m , t h e " r a p i d , c o m p l e t e , a n d v i o l e n t " c h a n g e t h a t H u n t i n g t o n e q u a t e sw i t h r e vo l u t i on t yp i c a l l y t o ok p l a c e a f t e r t he t r a ns f e r o f pow e r a nd c ons o l ida -t ion of a new r~gime , whi le a s ing le government (or o rde r ly success ion ofgove r nm e n t s ) w a s in p l a c e , he nc e w i t h i n t he bou nds o f po l i ti c a l c on t i nu i t y .

T he i de o l og i c a l de s i gns o f r e s pe c t i ve r i va l c on t e nde r s f o r pow e r , t o s um up ,a f f o r d a po o r gu ide t o t he a c t ua l o r i g in s , c ou r se , a nd ou t c o m e o f r e vo l u t i ona r ys i tua t i ons . 44 N ow i t is t r ue t h a t i n t e n t i ons ( c a r r ie d i n t o a c t i on ) be a r up on t heou tbr ea k of rev olu t io nary s i tua t ions and , a s the s t ruggle ensues , p lay a ro lei n s ha p ing t he e v e n t ua l ou t c o m e . B u t ne i t he r ou t b r e a k s no r ou t c om e s ar e r e -duc i b le t o i n t e n t i ons , b o t h be c a us e (a s no t e d ) i n t e n t i ons a re no t o r i o us l yvar iab le in re sponse to changing condi t ions , and because po l i t i c s in h i s tory i sa ga m e w i t h m a n y p l a ye r s, no one o f w ho m c alls a ll t he s ho t s a ll t he t i m e . F o rc e r t a in pu r pos e s , on t he o t he r ha nd , i t m a y be u s e f u l t o g r oup r e vo l u t i ons i nr e t r o s p e c t b y t h e b r o a d i n s ti t u ti o n a l o u t c o m e s t h e y h e l p b r in g a b o u t 4 s - a n d ,indeed , one c r i ti ca l ta sk fo r ana lys is is to expla in wh y e ach h i s tor i ca l ou t -c om e , a nd no t a no t he r , c a m e t o pa s s. W hile u s e f u l f o r pos t - hoc c la s s if i ca t ion

for sor t ing the resu l t s o f revolu t ion a f t e r the fa c t - th i s ap pro ach is a l-t oge t he r m i s le a d i ng i f u s e d t o de f n e r e vo l u t i on a s suc h . F o r by de m a r c a t i ngthe event so as to inc lude by defi 'nition t he soc ia l and ins t i tu t iona l changest h a t m a y o r m a y n o t b e a c h i ev e d b y v i c t o ri o u s m o v e m e n t s t u r n e d g o v e r n -


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49m e n t s , i t c on f ounds t h r e e d i s t i nc t explicanda, e a c h o f w h i c h c a n o c c u r ( a n dha s oc c u r r e d ) w i t hou t one o r bo t h o f the o t he r s ha pp e n i ng a s w e ll : t he d is -i n t e g r a t i on o f c e n t r a l s t a t e a u t h o r i t y i n t o m u l t i p l e s ove r e i gn t y ; t he t r a ns f e ro f p o w e r ; a n d t h e c a p a c i t y o f r ul in g g r o u p s to f o s t e r s o c ie t al t r a n s f o r m a t i o n .I n a ny g i ve n r e vo l u t i on t he r e i s s u r e l y a c onne c t i on be t w e e n t he s oc i a lc on f l i c t g r oups i nvo l ve d i n a r e vo l u t i ona r y c r i si s, t he t r a ns f e r o f pow e r , t hepo l i ti c a l i de n t i t y o f t he w i nne r s , a nd t he i r s ubs e que n t p l a ns a nd po l i c ie s . T h a tgoe s w i t ho u t s a y ing . Bu t the c on ne c t i on i s a c on t i nge n t c o nne c t i on : i t m us tbe ope n e d t o i nve s t iga t i on , c a se by c a se , no t p r e s c r i be d be f o r e ha n d by de f in i -t ion . 46

I I IT he o r i e s o f r e vo l u t i on , t o r e s um e , f a ll i n t o t h r e e m a i n li ne s o f thou gh t : ( 1 )t he ou t s i de - a g i t a to r m o de l , w h i c h i m a g i ne s r e vo l u ti ons a nd le s se r pub l i cd i s t u r ba nc e s t o be t he w or k o f s ubve r s ive s w h o , w i t h a s in i s te r ge n iu s f o rc a j o l e ry a nd c oe r c i on , p r ov oke o t he r w i s e d i s i n t er e s t e d m a s s es t o v i o l e nc e ; ( 2 )t he vo l c a n i c m ode l , t h r oug h w h i c h c iv il s tr if e a ppe a r s t o be t he p e r i od i c e r up -t i on o f s oc i a l- p s yc ho l og i c al te n s i ons t ha t bo i l up i n hum a n g r oups li ke l a vaund e r t he e a r t h ' s c r u s t o r s t e a m i n a ge ys e r ; a nd ( 3 ) t he po l i t ic a l m od e l , i nw h i c h t he s o und a nd f u r y o f pub l i c v i o l e nc e s ign i fy sh i f ti ng pow e r ba l a nc e sa n d s t ru g g le s f o r h e g e m o n y b e t w e e n c o n t e n d e r s f o r c o n t r o l o f t h e s ta t e. W h a tt he o t he r t w o m ode l s d is m i ss a s t he ha nd i w o r k o f se c r e t a ge n t s o r m e r en i h il is ti c t h r a s h i ng a bo u t is t hus r e ve a l e d t o be t he b y - p r od uc t o f po l i t ic a lpow e r s t rugg l es be t w e e n i nc u m be n t a u t ho r i t i e s a nd g r oups o f cha l le nge r s,wh o t ake to the s t ree t s (o r h i l ls ) w hen l ega l me asures fa i l t o b r ing a redres s ofg r i e vanc e s , j u s t a nd e qu i t a b l e pe r f o r m a nc e on t he p a r t o f o f f i c i a l dom , o r ar e s t r uc t u r ing o f t he po l i t y t ha t a c c om m od a t e s t he i r cl a im s - f a il , i n s ho r t , t ob r i ng t he m a n e f f e c t i ve s ay in t he de c is ions t ha t s ha pe t he c ou r s e o f t he i rc o l le c t ive de s ti n ie s . B o i le d d ow n t o s i m p l e s t t e r m s t he po l it ic a l m od e l c om e st o t h i s , t ha t c o l le c t ive v i o le nc e s p r ings f r o m p r e m e d i t a t e d c o l l e c ti ve a c t i on( o r , be t t e r , interaction) of which i t i s s imply a t ac t i ca l o r s t ra t eg ic ex tens ionby o the r , coe rc ive means . And, l ike a l l po l i t i c s , popula r co l l ec t ive ac t ion i s ade l i be r a t e e f f o r t unde r t a ke n f o r d i s c e r n i b l e , p r a c t i c a l r e a s ons . T h i s i s no t t oi m p l y t ha t a nge r , pa s si on , ha t r e d , o r i r r a t iona l na s ti ne ss ne ve r f i gu r e in v i o l e n tpo l i t i c s . T he y do , a s on a ba t t l e f i e l d . Bu t a nge r a nd ou t r a ge a l one do no tproduce po l i ti c a l v i o le nc e a n y m or e t ha n pa t r i o t i s m c a us e s w a r . T h e y w a n tpo l i t i c a l m ob i l i z a t i on v i a a s s oc i a t i on , f o r m a l o r i n f o r m a l , t o be ga l va n i z e di n t o a c t i on . C ons e q ue n t l y , c on f l i c ts o f po l i ti c a l in t e r e s t s e tt l e d by v i o l e nc ea nd b l o ods h e d d i f f e r f r om o t h e r c on f l i c ts o f po l it ic a l in t e r e s t by t ha t f a c ta l one ; t he y do no t c om pr i s e o r e n t a i l s om e s e pa r a t e s pe c ie s o f a bn o r m a l" c o l l e c ti ve be ha v i o r . "


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5 0T h i s r ough - e dge d b r e a kd ow n i s no t m e a n t t o e xh a us t t he m a n i f o l d s im i l a ri ti e sa nd d i f f e re nc e s be t w e e n a va il a b le t he o r i e s o f r e vo l u t i on . N o r doe s i t f e ignj u s t i c e t o a ny one o f t he m . A t be s t , i t r e nde r s r e a l t he o r i e s o f r e vo l t a ndr e vo l u t i on t he w a y a z oo l og i s t' s t a xo no m y a pp r o x i m a t e s l iv i ng a n i m a l s, byi de n t i f y i ng s t r a t e g i c f e a t u r e s t ha t s o r t one f a m i l y f r om a no t he r . A nd w ha tg r oups t he o r i e s o f r e vo l u t i on i n t o n a t u r a l f a m i l ie s o f t hou gh t i s t he i r ne xus o fa s s um pt i ons a b ou t w h a t ge ts s i za b le s e ts o f o r d i na r y pe op l e i nvo l ve d i n c o l le c -t ive v io lence : c l andes t ine consp i ra tors ; unre l i eved soc ie t a l t ens ions andf r u s t r a t i ons t ha t e xp l ode i n a bu r s t o f c a t ha r t i c r a ge ; o r p r a c t i c a l po l i t i c a lc on t e n t i on t ha t ( u nde r c e r t a i n c i r c um s t a nc e s ) c om pe l s m o b i l i z e d g r oup s t ot a ke v i o l e n t m e a s u r e s t o a dva nc e a nd de f e nd t he i r i n t e r es t s .Having bee n assai led by a co m pe ten t c r i ti ca l l i t e ra ture an d d i sgraced to a l l bu tt he m os t r e f r a c t o r y po l i c e a nd m i l it a r y c i rc le s ( i ncl ud i ng pa r a - a c a de m i c a ge n-c ie s t ha t s e rv i ce t he m ) , t he ou t s i de - a g i ta t o r m od e l ne e d no t de t a i n u s . S u f f ic ei t t o no t e t ha t w h i le m i l i t a n t m i no r i t ie s m a y be no l es s e s s en t ia l to o r ga n iz i ngr e vo l u t i on t ha n t o t he r ou t i ne e xe r c is e o f gove r n m e n t , t he c ons e r va ti ve ha l f -t r u t h t ha t a g i t a t o r s f om e n t r e vo l u t i ons be c om e s a l i e be c a us e i t i gno r e s t hes oci al a nd po l i t ic a l c ond i t i ons t ha t m a ke m ov e m e n t m o b i l iz e r s e ff e c t ive i ns om e s e tt ings bu t i m po t e n t i n o t he r s . 47 T he vo l c a n i c m o de l , o n t he o t he rha nd , r e m a i ns t he m os t p opu l a r i m a ge o f r e vo l u t i ons a nd c o ll e ct ive v i o l e nc e ,c e r t a i n ly a m ong a u t ho r s o f ge ne r a l t he o r i e s. Be c a use t he vo l c a n i c m ode l is ,a f t e r t he ou t s i de - a g i t a t o r m y t h , t he m os t pe r s i s t e n t ( a nd pe r s i s t e n t l y m i s -l e a d ing ) w a y o f s e ei ng r e vo l u t i on - a c om p e l l ing m e t a p ho r obs t r uc t ingpol i t i ca l ana lys i s - t he core o f th i s e s say i s dev oted to i ts an a to m y andc r i t i c i s m o f t he o r i e s t ha t m a ke i t a c e n t r a l ( i f i m p l i c i t ) o r ga n i z i ng a s s um p-t i on . T he po l i t i c a l m ode l a nd i t s i m p l i c a t i ons f o r e xp l a i n i ng r e vo l u t i ons w i l lb e e x a m i n e d s u b s e q u e n t ly .In fu l l soc io log ical d ress , t he vo lcan ic m od e l o f co l l ec tive v io lence i s a c rea tureo f l a t e n i ne t e e n t h - c e n t u r y s oc ia l t hough t . T he vo l c a n i c m e t a p ho r a s s uc h i sm uc h o l de r t ha n t ha t , o f cou r s e , da ti ng f i 'om w he n e ve r obs e r ve rs f i r st l i ke ne dt he v i o l enc e o f r e vo l t t o na t u r a l c a t a s t r op he s on t he o r de r o f e a r thqua ke s a nde r up t i ons . Bu t t h is t u r n o f po l i ti c a l s ens i b il it y w a s no t f a s h i one d i n t o c ohe r e n tt h e o r y b e f o r e D u r k h e i m v e n t u r e d t o e x p l a i n a n o m i c r e a c t i o n s t o m o d e r nsoc ie ty - f ro m su ic ide to soc ia li sm - a s the con sequ ence of a burg eon ingd i v is ion o f l a bo r w he r e b y t he " m e c ha n i c a l s o l i da r i t y " o f t r a d i t i ona l l i fe a ndc us t om a r y r e s tr a i n ts on a n t i- s oci a l be ha v i o r w e r e c om i ng uns t u c k f a s t e r t ha nne w i n s t i t u t i ona l s o f t w a r e c ou l d i n s t i l l m or a l r e gu l a t i on a pp r op r i a t e t o t he"organic so l ida r i ty" of indus t r i a l c iv i l i za t ion . Soc ia l change , in a word , hadou t s t r i ppe d m or a l de ve l opm e n t . T h i s p r og r e s s i ve d i f f e r e n t i a t i on o f f unc t i on ,dram at i ca l ly acce le ra t ed by the Indus t r i a l R evo lu t ion and r is e of la rge -sca le


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51capi ta l i s t en te rpr i se , was thus seen to be the m as te r process beh ind theobse r ve d " inc r e a se o f unha pp ine s s a nd the lo s s o f s e cu r e c on te x t s o f be l i e fa nd me m be r sh ip i n wh ic h a lone m a n f inds re f uge f r om anornie. ,,48Sub sum ed in the volcanic m od e l , then , i s a s tandard scenar io re la t ing socia lt r a ns f o r m a t ion to t he ris e o f popu la r p r o t e s t : r a p id s t r uc tu r a l c ha nge ( f o r m e r lya s soc i a t e d w i th t he c oming o f u r ba n indus t r i a l c a p i t a l i sm to Eur ope a ndN o r t h A m e r ic a , m o r e r e c e n t l y w i t h h o t h o u s e " m o d e r n i z a t i o n " i n th e T h i r dWor ld) produces widespread d is loca t ion , a l iena t ion , and ha rdship , a s we l l a sa qu a n tu m l e ap in t he l e ve l o f e xpe c t a t i ons . As soc ia l a nd e c on om ic ho r i z on sb r oa d e n , p r iva t ion a nd de pe n de nc e c e ase t o a pp e a r t o be t he i ne sc apa b le f a t eo f t he l owe r c la sses . " C on se q ue n t ly , " wr i t e s Du r khe im , " the r e is no r e s t r a in tup on a sp i r a ti ons . " Ac qu i r ing ne w wa n t s m uc h f a s t e r t ha n m e a ns o f sa t is f y ingthe m , pe op le ha r bo r a shar pe n ing se nse o f b i t t e rne s s a nd f r u s t r a t i on . W i th t hequ ic ke n ing d i s so lu t ion o f c ommuna l so l ida r i t i e s a nd g r owing " d i sha r monybe twe e n l if e e xpe r i e nc e s a nd the no r m a t ive f r a m e w or k wh ic h r e gu la t es t he m ,"the a t t e nd a n t t e ns ions a nd hos t i l i t y e r up t i n c r ime , de v ia nce , su i cide , i n -sa n i ty , a nd - w h e n the se valves fa i l t o le t o f f e nou gh s t ea m - i n " spon ta ne o usou tbu r s t s o f pop u la r mi se r y . '49 T he t a c i t a s sumpt ion th r ou gh ou t is t ha t s incepo l i ti c a l re c kon ing w or ks t h r o ugh the f o r ma l c ha nne l s o f gove r nm e n t , pa r ty ,o r t r a de un ion , popu la r a c t ion s t e ms no t f r om p r inc ip l e bu t f r om b r u t e im-pulse .Thus the vo lc a n ic mode l p i c tu r e s t he e t i o logy o f re vo l t a nd r e vo lu t ion l iketh is : t he on r ush o f unc on t r o l l e d c ha nge s i n t he s t r uc tu r e o f soc i e ty be ge t sm u l t ip l e x t e ns ions wh ic h , i f un r e l i e ve d , e r up t i n to m a ss v io l e nce whe r e a ndwh e n soc ia l c on t r o l s r e l ax o r we a ke n . The se t e ns ions a ri se , i n t u r n , f r omsever al sou rc e s : r una w a y e xpe c t a t i ons t ha t ou t s t r i p g r a t if y ing a c h ie ve me n t s ,p r oduc ing f r u s t r a t i on ;d i so r i e n t a t i on su f f e r e d by s imp le f o lk r e c e n t ly wr e nc he df r om t r a d i ti ona l mi l i e ux a nd sub je c t e d to t he be w i lde ring c omp le x i ty , im-p e r s o n a l i ty , a n d s h e e r n o v e l t y o f m o d e r n l i f e ; a n d , c o n c u r r e n t l y , t h e tr a u m aof i n t e g r a t ion in to t he a l ie na t ing ro l e s t r uc tu r e o f c ompe t i t i ve , bu r e a uc r a t i csoc i e ty . W he re a s the se d i s c on te n t s m ou n t f i rs t i n the he a r t s a nd minds o f un -c oo r d ina t e d ind iv idua l s , t he y f ind ou t l e t soone r o r l a t e r i n c o l le c tive be ha v io r .P laus ib le on the face of i t , the volcan ic scenar io procee ds f ro m severa l du biousassum pt ions : tha t r evolu t ions and co l lec t ive v io lence spr ing f rom a rebe l l iousa t t it u d e t o w a r d a u t h o r i t y a " r e v o l u t i o n a r y s ta t e o f m i n d " ; t h a t , a c c o rd i n g ly ,the po te n t i a l f o r ma ss r e vo l t i s a f unc t io n o f the ge ne ra l l eve l o f i nd iv idua langer and hos t i l i t i e s , which va r ie s wi th the sum t o ta l o f ind iv idua l depr iva t ions ;tha t i nd iv idua l a t ti t ude s a nd in t e n t ions o f pa r t ic ipa n t s i n r e vo lu t iona r y e ven t sc lose ly cor respo nd to the changes e f fec ted by said co l lec t ive ac t ions ( tha t , in


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52o t h e r w o r d s , i f m a j o r c h an g e s c o m e a b o u t , i t is b e c a u se m a n y p e o p l e w e rea n g r y e n o u g h t o w a n t i t t h a t w a y ) ; t h a t r e v o l u t i o n is a n e x t r e m e f o r m o fpop u l a r d i s c on t e n t - t he g r e a t e r t he d i s c on t e n t , t he r e f o r e , t he g r e a t e r t hepo t e n t i a l f o r r e vo l t; a nd , i n l ine w i t h a l l o f t he a bove , t ha t r e vo l u t i on a nd t hei m p e t us t h e r e t o a r e c ond i t i ons o f s oc ie t y a t l a r ge, no t o f a s pe c if i c pow e ra r ran gem ent or ba lan ce of po l i t i ca l fo rces in a g iven r~gime .S~A dm i t t e d l y , t he t he o r i e s unde r c r i t i c i s m s e l dom p r o f e s s t o e xp l a i n t hepo l i t i c a l w or k i ngs o f r e vo l u t i on , w h i c h t a s k i s c om m on l y l e f t t o na r r a t i veh i s tor i ans . The a im of these theor i es , r a the r , is t o ac co un t for mass gr ievancest ha t i m pe l v io l e n t a t t a c ks on t he s t a tu s q uo . T o t a ke a n o t he r l e a f f r omT r o t s k y , w h o i n h i s p r e f a c e t o T h e History of the Russian Revolution o b -s e rve d t ha t w i t h ou t o r ga n i z a t i on t he f o r c e o f pop u l a r d i s c on t e n t w ou l d d is si-pa t e l i ke s t e a m no t e n c l o s e d in a p i s t on - c y l i nde r - a dd i ng , o f c ou r s e , t ha tw h a t m o ve s th i ngs is no t t he p i s ton o r t he c y l i nde r , bu t the s t e a m - vo l c a n i ct h e o ri e s a t t e n d t o t h e " s t e a m , " n o t t o t h e " c y l i n d e r . " A n d t h e y w i n d u p in aqua nd r y . U n l i ke T r o t s ky , w ho f o r a l l h i s o r t hodox r he t o r i c c on t r a s t i ngs pon t a ne i t y t o c ons c i ousne s s ha d a ke e n s ens e o f the p o l i ti c a l l og ic be h i ndun t u t o r e d c o l le c t ive v i o l e nc e ( w i t ne s s h i s c ha p t e r on t he a g r a ri a n r e vo l u t i onof 1917 show ing tha t p easan t " s t e am " had a v ill age- leve l "c y l in de r" a l l i t sow n) , e xp one n t s o f t he vo lc a n i c m ode l a re a t a l o ss t o e x p l a i n ho w g r ie va nc esa re t u r ne d i n t o m i l i t a n t a c t iv i t y . T h e y t a ke t he a ns w e r f o r g r a n t e d a nd s o be gt he que s t i on . F a c e d w i t h a ny e xa m pl e o f r e vo l u t i on o r m a s s uphe a va l ,t he o r i e s bu i l t a r ound t he vo l c a n i c m ode l s e a rc h f o r e v i de nc e o f p r i o r m a l -f unc t i ons o f t he " s oc i a l s y s t e m " t ha t s er ve t o i nc r e a se t he ge ne r a l s t o r e o f d is-c on t e n t , w h i c h by p r oc e s se s una c c ou n t e d f o r - e xp l ode s i n c onc e r t e dv i o l e nc e a ga i n s t pow e r - ho l d i ng a u t ho r i t i e s . A t t e n t i on i s f oc us e d on t hep r oba b l e s ou r c e s o f i nd i v i dua l d i s c on t e n t a nd , by s i m p l e e x t e ns i on , t hea gg r a va ti ons o f s oc i e t y a s a w ho l e , s l C l e a rl y a nd e m pha t i c a l l y , t he m o de ld i ve rt s a t t e n t i on f r om p r a c t ic a l po l i t ic a l c o n t e s t s p i t t i ng i n t e r e s t e d c on -t e nde r s f o r pow e r a ga i n s t t he i nc um be n t po l i t y a nd one a no t he r , a nd de r i ve sv i o l e n t f i gh ts f o r he g e m ony i n t he s t a te f r om p r i o r im pu l s e s o f fr u s t r a t i on -aggres s ion , re l a t ive depr iva t ion , s t ruc tura l s t ra in , o r sys t emic d i sequi l ib r ium.H o w t he s e i r r it a n t s t o t he b od y po l i t ic a r e c onve r t e d i n t o m a s s m ob i l i z a t i onf o r c o l le c t ive a c t i on , how e ve r , r e m a i ns a m ys t e r y . L i ke t he o r t ho do x M a r x i s mt he y i m p l i c i tl y r e f u t e , vo l c a n i c t he o r i e s o f r e vo l u t i on a r e , t o s a y t he le a s t,p r o f ou nd l y a n t i- po l it ic a l . A r e v ie w o f ou t s t a nd i ng t he o r i e s will m a k ep r i nc ip l e s c le a r er , a nd a bs o lve m e f r om t he a c c u s a t i on o f ha v i ng bu r ne d as tr a w m a n o f m y o w n m a k in g .T he s i m p l e s t vo l c a n i c t he o r i e s t r y t o p s yc ho l og i z e r e vo l u t i ona r y v i o l e nc e -pu t i t on the cou ch as i t were and t rea t coe rc ive po l i t i ca l conf l i c t s a s


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53pa s s i ng a be r r a t i ons o f s oc i e t y ' s c o l l e c t i ve c ons c i e nc e . E c onom i c a nd po l i t i c a lc i r c um s t a nc e s c r e e p i n t o t he t he o r e t i c a l p i c t u r e a s s ta ge p r op s now a nd t he n ,b u t " o b j e c t i v e " c o n d i t i o n s a re t y p i c a ll y h e l d t o b e m u c h le ss i m p o r t a n t t h a npe o p l e ' s " s t a t e s o f m i n d . " A c l e a r c a se in po i n t i s t he w e l l - know n J - c u r veh y p o t h e s i s o f J a m e s C . D av ie s, w h o m a i n t a i n s t h a t a

r e vo l u t i on is m os t l i ke ly t o t a ke p l a c e w h e n a p r o l onge d pe r i od o f r is inge xp e c t a t i ons a nd r i s ing g r a t if i c a ti ons is f o l l ow e d b y a s ho r t p e r i od o f s ha r pr e ver s al du r i ng w h i c h t he ga p be t w e e n e xpe c t a t i ons a nd g r a t if i c a ti onsqu i c k l y w i de ns a nd be c o m e s i n t o l e r a b l e , s2

By " g r a t i f i c a t i ons " D a v i e s m e a ns t he s a t i s f a c ti on o f ba s i c hu m a n r e q u i r e m e n t s ,r a ng i ng f r om t he phys i c a l ( f ood a nd w a t e r , r e s t , s e x , e t c . ) t o t he c u l t u r a l l ys pe c i fi c ( s t a nda r d o f l iv ing , e c on om i c op po r t un i t i e s , d i gn i t y , a nd t he li ke ).The J -curve , in tu rn , i s a hypothe t i ca l l i ne graph t rac ing a gradua l r i s e ands udde n d r op i n g r a t i fi c a t ions , de p i c t e d a s a re ve r s ed , i nve r t e d " J . " A s t he f a t a lg a p w i d e n s b e t w e e n w h a t p e o p l e w a n t a n d w h a t t h e y a c t u a l l y g e t , t h e" f r u s t r a t i on t ha t de ve l ops , w h e n i t i s i n t e nse a nd w i de s p r e a d in t he s oc i e t y ,s e eks o u t l e t s i n v i o l e n t a c t i on . " A nd i f t h i s " d i s s ona n t e n e r g y" f l a re s up t ot he c r it ic a l po i n t w he r e i t " be c om e s a r e s ona n t , ve r y pow e r f u l fo r c e t ha the a ds l ike a g r e a t t ida l w a ve o r f o r e s t f i re t ow a r d t he e s t a b li s he d g ove r nm e n t , "a re volu t ion ensues , o r , f a i ling tha t , a t l eas t a go od ly revol t , s3 His tor i ca le xa m pl e s t ha t a l l e ge d l y f i t t h i s pa t t e r n i nc l ude D or r ' s Re be l l i on ( RhodeI s l a nd , 1842 ) , t he Rus s i a n Re vo l u t i on ( 1917 ) , t he N a s s e r i t e coup d'Otat inE g y p t ( 1 9 5 2 ) , t h e F r e n c h R e v o l u t i o n ( 1 7 8 9 ) , S o u t h e r n s e ce ss io n ( 1 8 6 1 ) , t h eN a z i a c c e s s i on ( 1933 ) , ghe t t o r e be l l i ons a nd b l a c k m i l i t a nc y i n t he 1960s ,a nd c a m pus c o l l ec t ive a c t ions o f t he s a m e de c a de .T ho ugh s om e m a y c a re t o t a ke up D a v i e s ' i nv i t a t i on a nd he l p t e s t t he J - c u r ve ' sp r e d i c t ive p ow e r by de ve l op i ng a c a lc u l u s o f c om pa r a t i ve f r u s t r a t i ons , w e ne e dno t a w a i t t he r e s u lt s o f t h i s un l i ke ly ve n t u r e b e f o r e pas s ing j udg m e n t on t hege ne r al t he o r y . F o r t he r e a r e log i c al r e a ons t o s u s pe c t t ha t e ve n i f one c ou l dc a l c u la t e a r a ti o o f g r a t i f ic a t i on t o e xpe c t a t i on - d i f f ic u l t o r im p os s i b l e , s inc eD a v i e s c om po un ds a w i de va r i e t y o f g r a t i fi c a t ions i n t o a one - d i m e ns i ona l ( a ndnone m p i r i c a l ) i nde x - t he J - c u r ve w ou l d be no m or e pe r s ua s ive . D a v i esa s s er t s tha t f r u s t r a t i on a r ous es a " r e vo l u t i ona r y s t a t e o f m i nd , " m a n i f e s t i ns om e pe op l e a s a gg r e s s i ve ne s s a nd b l ood l u s t , i n o t he r s a s " ba f f l e m e n t , "" a p a t h y , " o r " a c ti v e c o n t e m p t " f o r th e g o v e r n m e n t . I n s h o rt ,

T he be s t l a c k a ll c onv i c t i on , w h i le t he w o r s tA r e f u l l o f pa s s i ona t e i n t e ns i t y .


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5 4D a v i e s doe s no t , how e ve r , p r opos e a ny w a y o f t e l l i ng w he t he r t he p r e s um e dga p be t w e e n e xpe c t a t i ons a nd g r a t i f i c a t i ons i s " i n t o l e r a b l e " ( t hus p r oduc i nga r e vo l u t i ona r y m e n t a l s t a t e ) , s ave t ha t a t s om e ( uns pe c i f i e d ) po i n t i t i s nol onge r t o l e r a t e d . H a v i ng m a de a qu i c k l a p a r ound t he t r a c k o f c i rc u l a r r e a son -i ng , D a v i es ne x t om i t s t o e xp l a i n how a " r e vo l u t i ona r y s t a te o f m i nd " i st r a ns f o r m e d i n t o c onc e r t e d a c t i on s u f f i c i e n t t o t opp l e t he i nc um be n t r ~g i m e .H e s i m p l y a s s um e s i t ha ppe ns a u t om a t i c a l l y , t hus be gg ing t he que s t i on hec l ai m s t o h a ve a ns w e r e d . N or doe s he m a na ge t o ide n t i f y w h i c h g r oups e x -pe r i e nc e dec l in i ng g r a t if i c a ti ons , w h i c h f ee l f r u s t r a t e d , o r w h i c h r e be l m uc hles s ve r i fy for any spec i f i c case tha t they a re , i n fac t , t he s ame c lus t e r s o fpeo ple . In s t ead of ev idence and ana lys i s, Davies p lugs in the t au to log ica la s s e r t i on t ha t " M a r x t o t he c on t r a r y , r e vo l u t i ons a r e m a de no t on l y byeco no m ica l ly depres sed c lasses and the i r l eade rs " - M arx , by the wa y,ne i t he r s aid no r i m p l i e d suc h f oo l is hne s s - " b u t by t he j o i n t e f f o r t o f la r genum be r s o f pe op l e i n a l l s oc i a l g r oups w ho a r e e xpe r i e nc i ng f r u s t r a t i on o fd i f fe re n t bas i c needs . ' ' s4D i f f e r e n t pe op l e , na t u r a l l y e nough , e xpe r i e nc e s a t i s f a c t i on a nd f r u s t r a t i on i nd i f f e r e n t w a ys a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s , a f a c t t he J - c u rve m ode l m u dd l e s by r e duc i ngeveryone ' s own gra t i f i ca t ions to a s ing le l inea r t race which , l i ke a cosmict h e r m o m e t e r , r eg is te rs a n e n t ir e s o c i e t y 's e m o t i o n a l t e m p e r a t u r e o v e r t i m e .N o t s u r p ri s ing l y , t he r e f o r e , a l ook ba c kw a r d f r o m t he a c c om p l i s he d f a c t o fr e vo l u t i on o r r e vo l t t u r n s up e v i de nc e o f d i s c on t e n t a m ong a l l m a nne r o fgroup s and ind iv idua l s . But the n so does a g lance a t rou t ine soc ia l l i fe in time so f po l i ti c a l c o n t i nu i t y . T he f ina l f l a w i n the J - c u r ve hyp o t he s i s is t ha tD a v i e s ' m e t ho d o f s ca nn i ng the p r e r e vo l u t i ona r y pe r i od f o r signs o f f r u s t r a t e de xpe c t a t i ons i s bound t o i de n t i f y a s c r uc i a l f o r r e vo l u t i on c i r c um s t a nc e s t ha ta r e i n f a c t c o m m o np l a c e ou t s ide o f r e vo l u t i ona r y s it ua t ions - " a s w i t h t hef a m e d m e t h o d o l o g i s t w h o a c h i e v e d a h a n g o v e r w i t h b o u r b o n a n d w a t e r ,S c o t c h a n d w a t e r , n o t t o m e n t i o n r y e a n d w a t e r , a n d t h e r e f o r e s t o p p e dd r i nk ing t he o f f e nd i ng s ubs t a nc e : w a t e r . ' ' s s H ow t o d i st ingu i sh f r u s t r a t i onst ha t l e ad t o r e vo l u t i on f r o m t hos e t ha t f o r m t he g r is t o f po l i ti c a l c on t i nu i t y ,Dav ies nev er te l ls us . s6

S inc e D a v i e s p r ops up h i s a r gum e n t s w i t h a s po t t y a s s o r t m e n t o f h i s to r i c a la ne c do t e s , a nd s o l e a ve s h i s ge ne r a l t he o r y ope n t o a t t a c k on e v i de n t i a lg r ounds , be l i e ve rs in t he l og ic o f t he J - c u rve hyp o t he s i s m a y a ppe a l be f o r et he h i ghe r c ou r t o f c r o s s -na t iona l qua n t i f i c a t ion . F o r a n i m pos i ng ba t t e r y o fnum be r s ha s be e n c om pi l e d , e xa m i ne d , a nd e xp l a i ne d i n qu i t e s i m i l a r t e r m sby t he r e s e ar c h te a m o f I vo K . F e i e r a be nd , Ros a l i nd L . F e i e r a be nd , a nd B e t t yA. Nesvo ld . s7 Col l a t ing s t a t is t i ca l da ta on soc ial change and po l i t i ca l v io lencef o r e i gh t y - f ou r na t i ons be t w e e n 1948 a nd 1965 , t he F e i e r a be nds in t e r p r e t t he i r


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55c o m p u t e r c o r r el a ti o n s a s s tr o n g c o n f i r m a t i o n o f t h e i d e a t h a t n o t o n l y d o" m od e r n a nd t r a d i t iona l na t i ons t e nd t ow a r d s t a b i l it y , w h i le t r a ns i ti on l e adst o t u r m o i l a nd v i o l e nc e , " bu t " t he f a s t e r t he r a t e o f s oc i o - e c onom i c c ha nge ,the h igher the l eve l o f po l i t i ca l unres t . ' ' s8 W hy so? Because , they a rgue , rap ids oci al c ha nge s t ha t t yp i f y t he " t r a ns i t i ona l " pha s e be t w e e n t r a d i ti on a ndm o d e r n i t y t e n d t o in d u c e " s y s t e m i c f r u s t r a t i o n " - m e a n i n g " f r u s t r a t i o n t h a tis e xpe r i e nc e d s i m u l t a ne ous l y a nd c o l l e ct i ve ly w i t h i n s oc i et ie s ' s 9 - w h i c h i nt u r n s pills ov e r i n t o s t ri f e a nd v i o l e nc e . I n s ho r t , t he F e i e r a be nds po u r c om -pu te r i zed s t a t is t i ca l w ine in to a n o ld theo re t i ca l bo t t l e : r ap id soc ia l changee nge nde r s w i de s p r e a d f r u s t r a t i on w h i c h l e a ds t o v io l e nc e .O u r c onc e r n he r e i s no t t he F e i e r a be n ds ' w i l lf u l i n s e ns it iv i t y t o s t r at e g i cd i f fe rences in na t iona l soc ia l s t ruc tu re and p o l i t i ca l o rga niza t ion , wh icht he y f l a t t e n be ne a t h t he j ugge r na u t o f Q u a n t i t a t ive M e t ho d . N or i s i t t he i rna i ve r e l i a nc e on s i m p l e m i nde d m ode r n i z a t i on t he o r y f o r a c onve n i e n t s e t o fe vo l u t i on a r y p i ge onho l e s i n w h i c h t o s t u f f t he w or l d o f na t i ons . 6~ N or ,f i na ll y , i s i t t he i r s om e t i m e s c om i c a l l y i ne p t c l a ss i fi c a ti on o f s t a t e s a s " s t a b l e "o r " un s t a b l e " on t he ba s is o f s upe r fi c ia l s a m p l i ngs f r om a s ho r t s pa n o fh i s tory tha t fa i l t o reg i s t e r the c ruc ia l i s sues and axes of po l i t ica l con f l i c t .( Re a de r s w i t h a g r i m se nse o f hu m or w i l l be a m us e d t o l e ar n t ha t P a k i s t a n ,L i b y a , E t h io p i a , a n d C a m b o d i a a r e t h o u g h t t o b e " t ra d i t i o n a l " a n d " s t a b l e " ;C e y l o n a n d C h ile " t r a n s i t i o n a l " b u t " s t a b l e " ; a n d I sr a el a n d U r u g u a y b o t h" m o d e r n " a n d " s t a b l e . " ) 61 R a t h e r , w h a t c o u n t s f o r p r e s e n t p u r p o s e s is t h et h e o r y b y w h i c h t h e F e i e ra b e n d s p r o p o s e t o e x p l a in t h e ir c o m p u t e r c o rr e -l a t ions be t w e e n n um e r i c a l i nd i c a t o r s o f r a p id c ha nge i n " t r a ns i t i ona l "soc ie t i e s and the s t a t is t i c s on po l i t i ca l v io lence .T he i s s ue i s p r ob l e m a t i c be c a us e t he ke y e xp l a na t o r y va r i a b l e a nd t he o r e t i -c a l l i nc hp i n o f t he i r a r gum e n t , t he p s yc ho l og i c a l no t i o n o f " s y s t e m i c f r u s tr a -t i on , " i s no t i t s e l f s ub je c t t o d i r e c t m e a s u r e m e n t . O n t he c on t r a r y , i tsp r e s e nc e a nd i n t e ns i t y m us t be a s c e r t a ine d i nd i r e c t ly b y w a y o f s eve r a l i n t e r -ve n i ng a s s um pt i ons a bou t t he c onne c t i on be t w e e n s oc i a l c ha nge a nd s y s t e m i cf r u s t r a t i on o n t he one ha nd , a nd be t w e e n s a i d f r u s t r a t i on a nd r e c o r d e d ou t -b r e a ks o f po l i t i c a l v i o l e nc e on t he o t he r . T he F e i e r a be nds r e qu i r e , i n o t he rw o r ds , a s e t o f t he o r e t i c a l p r opos i t i ons e na b l i ng t he m t o i n t e r p r e t c e r t a inda t a on s oc i a l c ha nge a s e v i de nc e o f s y s t e m i c f r u s t r a t i on a nd , ha v i ng t huse s t a b l i s he d t he e x i s t e nc e o f w i de s p r e a d f r u s t r a t i on i n e m ba t t l e d s oc i e t i e s ,expla in l eve l s o f v io lence by re fe rence to i t . By themse lves , r aw s t a t i s t i ca lc o r r e l a ti ons b e t w e e n i nd i ce s o f r a p i d " m od e r n i z a t i on " a nd c o l l ec t ive v i o l e nc ee xp l a i n no t h i ng . O n l y by t he o r e t i c a l c r i t e r i a c a n t he y be t a ke n t o e v i nc ecausa l in t e rcon nec t ions . 62


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56An d those c r i te r ia ? The on ly e xp la n a to r y li nk be twe e n qu a n t i f i c a t ion a ndconc lus ion i s a se t o f ideas the Fe ie raben ds desc r ibe as " in tu i t iv e ly pe r -suasive. ' '63 Un der an alysis , these p rop os i t ion s dissolve , ro ug hly in equa l par ts ,in to unwar ran ted assumpt ions and t r iv ia l t ru isms:

Change , e spec ia l ly ex tens ive , r ap id , and abrupt change , i s an unse t t l ingand bewi lde r ing human exper ience . I t i s l ike ly to c rea te s t r a in in thepsyche of the ind iv idua l and c r i s i s in the soc ia l o rde r . Old ways , f ami l ia re ny i r onme n t s , de e p - se a t e d ha b i t s , a nd soc i a l r o l e s be c ome obso le sc e n t ,wh i l e a ne w w a y o f li fe a nd a ne w r ou t ine a r e no t ye t c l e ar ly e s t ab l i she d .

Echo ing the anxie t ie s and ana lysis of n in e tee nth -cen tury soc ial conse rva t ives ,t he F e i e r a be nds c on t inue :

9 . . ma ss ive c ha nge th a t m ove s pe op le phys i c a l ly i n to ne w e n v i r onm e n t s ,e xpose s t he i r minds t o ne w ide a s , a nd c a s t s t he m in ne w a nd un f a mi l i a rr o le s i s ve r y l i ke ly t o c r e a t e c o l l e c tive be w i lde r me n t . Th i s be w i lde r me n tm ay f ind exp ress ion in tu rm oi l and soc ia l v io lence .64

Why bewi lde rment should inc i te mass pol i t ica l v io lence ra the r than , say ,indu ce pass iv ity,6S the Fe ie raben ds do no t exp la in .Bu t the re a re de eper d i f f icu l t ie s to com e . As the Fe ie raben ds a re qu ick toackno wled ge , socia l change - o r , a s M arxist s som et imes pu t it , comb ined andune ve n d e ve lopm e n t - is a ma ny- sp l e ndo r e d th ing wh ic h , be c a use i t be ne f i t ssome in te res t s whi le damaging o the r s , makes for sa t i s fac t ion and d isconten tin d i f f e r e n t qua r te r s 9 The r e f o r e , t he y c on te nd , i t i s " on ly w he n c ha nge bringswi th i t soc i a l c i r c ums ta nc e s t ha t b r e e d d i sc on te n t a nd s t r a in t ha t i t ma y beassumed to be respons ib le for soc ia l tu rmoi l . " This , they expla in , i s because" ou r t he o r e t i c a l a s sumpt ion l i nk ing c ha nge to v io l e nc e be g ins w i th t heno t io n tha t po l i t ic a l t u r mo i l is t he c onse q ue nc e o f soc ia l d i s c o n te n t " - ap l a t i t ude d ign i f i e d bu t s l i gh t ly by the i r obse r va t ion tha t i t s t e ms f r om " amo t iva t iona l ra the r t ha n a s t r uc tu r a l o r i e n t a t i on , " a nd thus " r e a f f i r ms theo f t - r e pe a t e d in s igh t t ha t po l i t ic a l p r o t e s t a nd r e vo lu t ion be g in in t he m inds o fm en . ,,66How, the n , t o t e l l wh ic h c ha nge s i n a nd o f soc i e ty p r omote s a t i s f a c t ion a ndqu ie sc e nc e a nd wh ic h b r e e d d i sc on te n t a nd se d i t i on? He r e t he F e i e r a be ndsr e su r r e c t Ad la i S t e ve nson 's hom e ly a da ge f r om the 1950s a bo u t the " r e vo lu -t i on o f r is ing e xp e c t a t i on s , " a rgu ing tha t j u s t t hose c ha nges wh ic h f r u s t r a t esoc ia l expec ta t ions a rouse co l lec t ive anger and the impulse to v io lence : "Thec o n s e q u e n t l a c k o f a l i g n m e n t b e t w e e n e x p e c t a t i o n s a n d a t t a i n m e n t s , " t h e y


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57wr i t e , " c r e a t e s t he i n to l e r a b l e d i s c r e pa nc y wh ic h is pos tu l a t e d a s t he mo t iva -t iona l a n tec ede nt to po l i t ica l v io lence . '67 In p la in Engl i sh , the pa infu l gapb e t w e e n w i sh e s a n d f a c t , b e t w e e n " o u g h t " a n d "is ," impe ls v io len t s t r i fe .T r iv i al , e ve n t a u to logo us , t h is c onc lus ion wa r r a n t s ou r a t t e n t ion i f on lybe c a use the mi s t a ke s t ha t l e ad up to i t t yp i f y so m uc h o f t he l i t e ra tu r e onr e vo lu t ions a nd c o l l e c tive v io l e nc e . The F e i e r a be nds ne ve r t r oub le t o e xa minethe e c on om ic a nd po l i ti c a l s t r uc tu r e o f t he r 6g ime s the y su r ve y . No r do the ya na lyz e a ny pop u la t ion in to i ts c ons t i t ue n t c la sses , i n t e r e s t g r oups , o r c on -t e nd ing pa r t i e s . On me thodo log ic a l p r inc ip l e , t he y de c l ine t o c ons ide r t heissues a t s take in deadly quar re ls and , l ike the mi l i ta ry , a t tend main ly tob o d y - c o u n t s . 6s Worse , they om i t to spec i fy jus t wh ich groups a re adverse lya f f e c t e d by the soc i a l c ha nge s t he y a dduc e , wh ic h one s a r e f r u s t r a t e d , a ndwhich a re involved in v io len t po l i t ic s . I t i s ev ident ly a ssumed, no t a rgued( m uc h le ss c on f i r m e d) , t ha t t he se a re i n f a c t t he s ame se t s o f pe op le . Ne i the rdo the y ind i c a t e whe n the pu ta t ive d i s c r e pa nc y be tw e e n e xp e c t a t i ons a nda t t a in m e n t s b e c o m e s " i n t o l e r a b l e ." A n d w h e n t h e F e i er a b en d s e l a b o ra t et h e i r c e n tr a l c o n c e p t o f " s y s t e m i c f r u s t r a t i o n , " t h e y n e v e r o n c e e x p la i n h o wthis f ee l ing o f aggrava ted d isap poin tm ent am ong d ispa ra te ind iv idua ls conver t sin to c o l le c t ive a c t ion , o r e ve n be g in to spe c i fy t he c on d i t i ons und e r wh ic he x p e c t a t i o n s m a y b e f r u s t r a t e d w i t h o u t pr oduc ing r e be l l i on .69 Like Davies,t he y s imp ly p r e sume a d i r e c t c onne c t ion be twe e n f r u s t r a t i on a nd r e vo l t , a ndthus beg the que s t ion the y profess to have an swered . 7~ In f ine , the Fe ie r -aben ds ' impress ive d isp lay of s ta t is t ica l f i r eworks leaves beh ind a dense quan-t i t at i ve sm oke sc r e e n c ove r ing the s l ip shod q ua l i t y o f t he i r t he o r e t i c a l e xp la na -t i ons .S imi la r d i f f i cu l t ie s - i nhe r e n t i n t he a t t e m p t t o e xp la in v io l e n t po li t ic a l inter-ac t ions b y re fe renc e to ind iv idua l f rus t ra t ion s wr i t l arge - p lague the pr ize -w i n n in g w o r k o f T e d R o b e r t G u r r , Why Men Rebe l . R a t h e r t h a n t r y t o e x p l a inthe a c tual t iming o f r e vo lu t ions w i th t he a id o f a p r op l ike t he J -c u r ve , Gur rc a u t ious ly r e s t r ic t s h im se l f t o a c c oun t ing f o r v io l e n t " po te n t i a l s . " To do th i s ,he of fe r s a mass ive ex pl ica t io n of a s imple psych ologica l no t ion : r e lat ive de -p r iva t ion ,

de f ine d a s a c to r s ' pe r c e p t ion o f d i s c r e pa nc y be twe e n the i r va lue e x -pec ta t ions and the i r va lue capabi li t ie s . Va lue exp ec ta t io ns are the good s andc ond i t i ons o f l i fe t o wh ic h pe op le be l ie ve the y a re r i gh t f u l ly e n t i t l e d . Va luec a pa b il it ie s a r e t he goods a nd c ond i t i ons o f l if e t he y th ink the y a re c a pa b leof g e t t ing and keeping . 71

R e la tive d e p r iva t ion , t he n , is t he f e el ing pe op le e xpe r i e nc e w he n th e y f a il t og e t w h a t t h e y t h i n k t h e y d e se rv e , n A s a co n s e q u e n c e , t h e y b e c o m e a n g ry


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58a n d i f e no u g h o f t h e m d o n o t g e t w h a t t h e y t h i n k t h e y o u g h t , th e i r p o t e n t i a lf o r c o l le c tive v io l enc e and ( shou ld the gove r nm e n t l o se " c oe r c ive c on t r o l " )" in tern al w ar" increases. Th e gist o f G urr 's message, a l l in a ll , is th at th e" po te n t i a l f o r c o l le c t ive v io l e nc e var ie s s t r ong ly w i th t he i n t e ns i ty a nd sc opeo f r e l at ive de p r iva t ion a m ong m e mb e r s o f a c o l l e c tiv i ty . " TaS t r a nge ly e nou gh , G ur r de c l ines t o a na lyz e the r o l e o f gove r nm e n t s i nf om e n t ing e p i sode s o f po l i ti c a l v io l e nc e , a nd the r e by om i t s f r om c ons ide r a t ionthe v e r y " c o l l e c t iv i t y " h is to r ic a l ly r e spons ib l e f o r i n i t ia t ing m os t i nc ide n t sr e c o r de d a s " c iv i l s t r i f e ," a s we ll as f o r c om m i t t ing the Va s t bu lk o f m ur de ra nd m a yhe m . 74 N or , on p r inc ip l e , doe s Gur r ' s s c he me ( wh ic h f oc use s ex -c lus ive ly on v io lence by rebe ls agains t r~gimes) com e t o grips w i th v io len tc lashes th a t se t co nten ders for pow er in the s ta te aga ins t one an oth e r , thoug hh i s da t a i na d ve r t e n t ly

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