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WESTERN BALKANS BETWEEN EAST AND WEST
PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH INBosnia and Herzegovina • Macedonia • Montenegro • Serbia
November 2018
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
SAMPLE DESIGN
SAMPLE SIZE
• Serbia:1200 respondents• Montenegro: 1211• Macedonia: 1221• BiH: 1258• Margin of error: + 3.1%
TIME FRAME
November, 2018
INTERVIEWER NETWORK
• Field questionnaire – average duration 50 minutes
• CAPI data collection• Interviewers were engaged, both
gender and with wide experience in public opinion projects
Sample frame: Population of countries 18+, Census data
Type of sample:Three stage random representative:• Unit of the first stage: Territory of polling
place• Unit of the second stage: Households
(SRSWoR – random walk)• Unit of the third stage: Respondents within
a household (Random selection of the respondent)
2
CITIZEN PRIORITIES
ECONOMIC ISSUES TOP CITIZENS CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN BALKANSWhat is the biggest problem facing your country at the moment?
Multiple answers; BASE: Total target population
38
32
14
14
10
10
6
6
6
5
4
1
55
27
14
22
8
6
7
8
8
19
4
21
2
5
15
10
3
7
46
11
33
6
12
12
7
10
6
2
6
7
15
28
10
23
5
11
53Unemployment
Low standard of living/small salaries
Kosovo
Economy
Corruption
Healthcare
Brain drain
Constant price increase
General poverty
Politics
Crime
Education
Pensions
Solving the name dispute
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
GAPS EXIST BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND CITIZEN POLICY PRIORITIES
In your opinion, which are the three areas that the Government of the country most and least pays attention to?
Multiple answers; BASE: Total target population
38
30
23
21
19
17
14
37
31
21
51
30
16
14
14
7
12
24
32
24
37
38
17
14
12
29
40
31
14
21
28
16
Position of the young
Healthcare
Prices of goods and services
Employment, creation of new
jobs
Country's economic situation
Education
Environmental protection
Respect of human rights
51
42
23
19
18
17
16
8
35
49
31
22
29
15
7
10
19
15
14
12
40
14
12
8
14
12
11
45
41
16
16
15
16
21
Status of Kosovo
Arrival of foreign investors
European integration
Reputation of a country worldwide
Regional stability
Development of infrastructure
Country's economic situation
Employment, creation of new jobs
National and personal security
Resolving the name issue
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
MOST LEAST
GAPS EXIST BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND CITIZEN POLICY PRIORITIES
Citizens across the four countries do not perceive their governments topay the most attention to quality of life issues that they care about.
Citizens see European Union integration as a government priority, but donot connect government actions in this sphere with improvements tohealthcare, employment, the cost of living, etc.
Media narratives in all four countries align with citizens’ outlook. Newscoverage on European Union integration tends to focus on theinstitutional/policy level and not emphasize tangible impact.
WEST, WESTERN BALKANS, AND EAST
SERBIA: RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE SEEN MOST FAVORABLY AMONG FOREIGN ACTORS
How would you evaluate your opinion about the following states and international institutions?
BASE: Total target population
6 718 19 21 25
155 4
23 18 18
3368
11 11
41 37 38
58
83
25 2716 16 11 10 2
35 29
11 76 5
2
60 56
27 2317 15
4
Russia China European Union UAE Turkey
United States of
America NATO
Unfavorable Favorable
MONTENEGRO: RUSSIA, CHINA, AND EU SEEN MOST FAVORABLYHow would you evaluate your opinion about the following states and international institutions?
BASE: Total target population
13 10 12 16 14 20 228 9
2023
3917 1821 19
3240
53
37 40
17 24 19 14 12 13 13
27 18 2115 13 12 9
45 41 40
29 25 25 22
Russia China European Union
United States of
America NATO Turkey UAE
Unfavorable Favorable
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA: CITIZENS FAVOR THE EUHow would you evaluate your opinion about the following states and international institutions?
BASE: Total target population
13 18 18 17 24 25 26817 13
27 12 19 2121
3531
4335
43 46
24 18 18 16 14 11 10
2015 14 12 9 8 6
44
33 32 2723 19 15
European Union Russia Turkey NATO China
United States of
America UAE
Unfavorable Favorable
MACEDONIA: PEOPLE ARE MOST FAVORABLE TOWARD EU AND NATOHow would you evaluate your opinion about the following states and international institutions?
BASE: Total target population
11 14 13 13 18 19 21713
4 1015 9
191827
1723
3328
39
22 21 26 22 17 18 11
28 23 16 1615 7
7
4945 43 38
3226
18
European Union NATO Turkey
United States of
America Russia China UAE
Unfavorable Favorable
SUPPORT FOR EU MEMBERSHIP IS STRONG—EXCEPT IN SERBIAIf the referendum for EU membership of your country were held this Sunday, how would you vote?
BASE: Total target population
22
23
45
39
14
24
6
10
37
18
55
27
11
17
10
8
4
9
48
21
69
12
5
6
10
10
72
46
27
7
9
15
Absolutely in favor
Probably in favor
Total positive
Total negative
Probably against
Absolutely against
I wouldn’t vote
Don't know/ Refusal
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
NATO VS. RUSSIAN MILITARY: SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO SEE RUSSIA AS STRONGER
Which of these two statements is more similar to your opinion?
BASE: Total target population
55
19
26
47
37
17
34
46
19
38
48
15
Russia is military superior
to NATO
NATO is military superior
to Russia
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
MONTENEGRO AND SERBIA DO NOT FAVOR NATO MEMBERSHIP IF PUT TO REFERENDUMIf a referendum for NATO membership of your country were held this Sunday, how would you vote?
Montenegro: Despite the fact that Montenegro is already member of NATO, if a referendum for NATO membership were held this Sunday, how would you vote?
BASE: Total target population
3
3
6
80
16
64
7
7
23
9
33
49
11
37
12
7
5
10
42
23
65
16
8
8
9
11
49
31
18
26
10
35
Absolutely in favor
Probably in favor
Total positive
Total negative
Probably against
Absolutely against
I wouldn’t vote
Don't know/ Refusal
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
MIXED VIEWS ON FOREIGN ACTORS ACROSS THE WESTERN BALKANS
A public referendum on EU membership would likely pass in all four countries. However,more citizens in Serbia view the EU negatively than positively; public support for EUmembership is at the lowest point in the past decade.
Russia’s favorability in Serbia has increased more than 20 percent since 2013. Along withRussia, China is viewed more positively than the EU and U.S.
Montenegro citizen sentiment is similar to that in Serbia. The EU is closer to Russian andChinese favorability levels, and the U.S. faring slightly better than in Serbia. Despite NATOmembership, a large majority of respondents sees NATO negatively.
Bosnia-Herzegovina’s citizens share a pro-EU orientation, but there are sharp dividesbetween ethnic Serbs on the one hand, and ethnic Bosniak and Croats on the otherconcerning support for both Russia and NATO.
Macedonia’s citizens show a clear preference for a Euroatlantic path.
A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER PREFERS THEIR CHILDREN TO TAKE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE EU
If your children had the opportunity to be educated, work, or live abroad, which of these would you prefer they go to?
BASE: Total target population
40
11
11
3
2
12
14
8
38
17
25
2
2
6
5
4
8
7
57
6
14
2
4
3
10
4
8
58
7
4
7
1
Some of the EU countries
Russia
USA
China
Turkey
Other
None of the above
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
A MAJORITY PREFERS MEDICAL TREATMENT IN THE WESTIf you or your family member needed a medical treatment or a surgery, which of these would you visit first?
BASE: Total target population
33
25
11
3
3
6
5
14
28
21
20
16
2
6
2
4
5
9
43
11
11
17
4
1
5
9
8
51
9
3
2
15
Some of the EU countries
Russia
USA
Turkey
China
Other
None of the above
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
WEST TOP CHOICE FOR OPPORTUNITY AND MEDICAL TREATMENT
Citizens in all four countries prefer their children to seek opportunity inthe West – the EU or the U.S.
In Serbia, Russia is a preferred destination for citizens supporting anti-western political parties. This is also true, albeit to a lesser extent, inMontenegro.
Given the choice of where to seek medical treatment, most wouldchoose European countries, but this is a less resounding choice in thefour countries. For all countries except Serbia, Turkey is another topchoice for medical treatment.
MEDIA & INFORMATION
MAINSTREAM MEDIA, FAMILY, FRIENDS ARE MOST COMMON SOURCES OF NEWS
Where do you get your news from?
BASE: Total target population
20
25
22
26
8
12
12
21
34
31
27
40
19
21
21
33
35
32
30
27
27
29
27
16
20
19
13
18
23
23
17
15
11
10
12
11
8
8
9
8
7
11
9
6
6
7
4
43
40
38
34
6
4
7
5
1
1
2
1
3
2
2
2
0
1
1
1
30
31
30
20
32
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
Usually Often Sometimes Rarely Never Don’t know
Friends/family/Colleagues
Facebook and similar social networks
Media (TV, Radio, Newspapers (online, printed, magazines)
TV IS THE MOST COMMON SOURCE OF INFORMATIONThrough which medium do you usually get informed about social, political, economic and other similar local and global topics?
Multiple answers; BASE: Total target population
83
31
24
13
11
5
1
0
84
34
26
26
14
20
7
1
1
6
0
2
85
24
41
7
12
13
3
3
1
28
11
15
3
27
84
29
TV
Internet newspapers – informative portals and
informative media webpages
Social networks
Printed dailies
Radio
Internet applications for placing informative contents
Magazines
Other
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
FAMILY/FRIENDS ARE USED TO VERIFY INFORMATION MORE THAN OTHER SOURCES
If you heard something important to you, where would you go first to verify it?
BASE: Total target population
12
7
2
1
60
12
9
7
3
1
58
11
3
17
2
0
55
8
13
4
1
9
56
3
Friends/family/colleagues
A TV news station
An online news portal
Facebook and other similar
social networks
Education
Subject-matter experts
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
MAINSTREAM MEDIA, FAMILY, FRIENDS ARE MOST COMMON SOURCES OF NEWS
Nearly 90 percent of citizens in all four countries rely principally onmainstream media as their information source.
The next source for news consumption (and verification), at 75 percent,is microenvironment–friends, family, and colleagues.
Between 30 and 40 percent report using social networks for newsinformation. They are more often a source for younger, well-educated,urban citizens. These citizens are, on average, statistically less likely tovote than other segments of the population.
MOST DECIDE WHETHER TO READ A FULL ARTICLE BASED ON THE HEADLINEAND IMAGEWhen you read, listen or watch news in media, what do you do?
BASE: Total target population
18
47
7
6
21
50
21
6
2
21
41
22
12
4
21
7
10
47
19
18
I mostly read only headline and see the accompanying
picture
I mostly read only headline and see the accompanying
picture and if it really draws my attention I read the full
article or listen/watch the entire news
I mostly read the entire articles
I pay attention to the source of the article
Don’t know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
MOST DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NEWS SOURCES
When you read, listen or watch news in media, do you pay attention to the sources used in the news?
BASE: Total target population
12
27
55
32
24
6
15
29
44
54
29
25
24
20
45
65
33
21
12
2
39
55
32
23
30
11
41
Often I do
I do
Total positive
Total negative
I don’t
Often I don’t
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
MOST DECIDE WHETHER TO READ A FULL ARTICLE BASED ON THE HEADLINEAND IMAGE
Opinion research across the four countries indicates that citizens tend to pay attention to pictures and headlines of news items.
Media analysis reveals that pictures and headlines often do not accurately depict the content of articles.
This suggests that the public’s understanding of news is not necessarily formed through sufficient exposure to factual information.
A MAJORITY BELIEVES THAT FALSE NEWS IS PRESENT IN THEIR COUNTRIES
Do you believe there is “false news” in your country’s media?
BASE: Total target population
77
9
72
17
11
75
12
13
14
20
69
12
Yes
No
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
CITIZENS ACROSS THE COUNTRIES BELIEVE THAT SOURCES OF FALSE NEWSARE DOMESTIC
Do you believe the sources you just named are based in….
BASE: those who mentioned outlets they believe transmit 'fake news' in your country media
40
11
8
2
0
6
22
48
8
6
8
5
0
10
14
4
12
69
5
4
8
2
1
3
8
11
8
4
0
10
56
6
My country
The US
The West
The EU
Russia
China
Other
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
AROUND 60 % USE SOCIAL MEDIA, MAINLY FACEBOOK Which social media sites do you use?
Multiple answers; BASE: Total target population
50
34
5
2
40
2
51
37
30
4
3
37
03
62
40
26
10
2
35
1
23
2
3
35
26
56
17
Youtube
Other
None
Don't know
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macedonia
Use of social media for news/analysis is30% in Montenegro, Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, and 40% in Macedonia
MEDIA ANALYSIS
MEDIA ANALYSIS
NDI partnered with the following nongovernmental organization in each country toconduct media analysis to test potential correlation between what and how the mediacovers news, and public sentiment as registered in NDI polling.
Centers for Civic Initiatives/Pod Lupom coalition (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Citizens’ Association MOST (Macedonia)
Center for Democratic Transition—CDT (Montenegro)
Center for Research Transparency, and Accountability—CRTA (Serbia)
Each organization monitored the top media outlets in their countries to assess tone,orientation, and potential presence of false news items, using a structured reportingprotocol that examines word choice and visual representation to assign pieces aspredominantly positive, neutral or negative.
FOREIGN RELATIONS IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINAMEDIA ANALYSIS
October - November 2018
NEWS ITEMS ON MAJOR FOREIGN ACTORS TREND POSITIVE, WITH VARIATION AMONG SPECIFIC ACTORS.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
Overall Orientation
USA
TUR
KEY
RU
SSIA
NA
TOC
HIN
AEU
FBIH – ALL PRORS – USA AND NATO NEGATIVE
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
FBiH
0 50 100 150 200 250
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
RS
USA
TUR
KEY
RU
SSIA
NAT
OEU
CH
INA
USA
TUR
KEY
RU
SSIA
NAT
OEU
CH
INA
THE RATIO OF PRO-WEST AND PRO-EAST NEWS IS INVERTED BETWEEN THE FEDERATION OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA AND REPUBLIKA SRPSKA
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
1
FBiH - PRO vs ANTI
Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
1
RS - PRO vs ANTI
Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4
42% ANTI WEST / PRO EAST 58% PRO WEST / ANTI EAST
56% ANTI WEST / PRO EAST 44% PRO WEST / ANTI EAST
IZETBEGOVIC QUOTED MOSTLY IN EU, TURKEY COVERAGEDODIK MOSTLY QUOTED RUSSIA, US, AND ANTI EU COVERAGE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2
EU NATO Russia Turkey USA EU NATO Russia Turkey USA
PRO ANTI NEUTRAL
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA MEDIA COVERAGE DIFFERS BY ENTITY, CORRELATES WITH PUBLIC OPINION
The EU and U.S. are the two most prominent foreign actors in BiH media.EU-related content is typically positive or neutral. U.S.-focused content isnegative nearly as often as it is positive.
Media coverage in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina is similar tocountry averages. In Republika Srpska, an EU-positive tone is evident,Russia is the next most prominently portrayed foreign actor, and the U.S.and NATO are characterized negatively.
There is an apparent link between the ratio of positive and negativenews items and public opinion about a foreign actor. A more even ratioof coverage correlates with divided or negative opinion. Predominantlypositive or neutral articles correlates with positive opinions.
September – November 2018
FOREIGN RELATIONS IN MACEDONIAMEDIA ANALYSIS
MACEDONIA MAINSTREAM MEDIA HAVE A PRO-WEST ORIENTATION
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Orientation
EU AND NATO COVERAGE MOST POSITIVE
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EU AND NATO COVERAGE MOST POSITIVE
The two international institutions monitored—the EU and NATO—havethe most positive coverage, and the least negative coverage.
Coverage of the U.S. and Russia has a different pattern. Both have morenegative than positive coverage, with neutral coverage near or equal topositive coverage.
The tone of news items corresponds with overall public perception offoreign actors.
FOREIGN RELATIONS IN MONTENEGROMEDIA ANALYSIS
October – December 2018
POSITIVE TONE TOWARD THE WEST AND CHINA. NEGATIVE TOWARD RUSSIA
Print Media TV Online Portals
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
USA EU RUSSIA CHINA NATO USA EU RUSSIA CHINA NATO USA EU RUSSIA CHINA NATO
PRO NEUTRAL ANTI
MEDIA COVERAGE AND PUBLIC OPINION DO NOT ENTIRELY CORRELATE
News items on foreign policy topics manifest online rather than in television or print media.
News items on foreign policy topics are predominantly positive.
Televised news items are most likely to positive and least likely to be neutral.
Positive news pieces about China increased by approximately 10 percent in the period monitored.
Public opinion does not appear to strictly follow the ratio of positive and negative news items.
FOREIGN RELATIONS IN SERBIA
June 2017 – November 2018
MEDIA ANALYSIS
RUSSIA AND CHINA APPEAR MAINLY IN PRO MEDIA PIECES, EU AND US NEUTRAL, NATO NEGATIVE
SERBIAN PUBLIC BROADCASTER, RTS: NEUTRAL COVERAGE DOMINATES. POSITIVE COVERAGE OF EU AND RUSSIA NEARLY EQUAL.
RUSSIA AND CHINA APPEAR MAINLY IN PRO MEDIA PIECES, EU AND US NEUTRAL, NATO NEGATIVE.
Most-discussed actors in the Serbian media are the EU, US, and Russia.
Russia and China are typically portrayed with positive news items, with nearly no negative content.
The EU and US are typically portrayed with a neutral tone.
After neutral items, the EU is most frequently positively portrayed. After neutral items, the US is portrayed most frequently in negative items.
Once again, we see the link between the tone of articles and overall public perception.
CONCLUSIONS
Euro-Atlantic integration retains popular support but public expectations about joining the EU areslackening. Many see a disconnect between their governments’ pursuit of EU membership andtangible improvements in their quality of life.
Macedonia respondents profess the strongest support for western countries and institutions,followed by Bosnia-Herzegovina. Serbia respondents, and to a lesser extent those in Montenegro,express greater support for Russia and China than for western countries and the European Union.
Media coverage of foreign actors generally correlates with public attitudes—although, inMontenegro, generally anti-Russia media coverage does not correlate with relative pro-Russiapublic sentiment. Media is determinative of citizen views on foreign affairs. Citizens areconscientious of the presence of media disinformation in foreign affairs coverage and generallyattribute it to domestic sources, rather than the Kremlin.
Personal “microenvironments”—friends/family/communities/social media--also shape publicopinion and present fertile ground for countering disinformation narratives about foreign actors.
This presentation is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Award
No. AID-OAA-LA-13-00011. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
